Red Sox Deadline Discussion

[YTF]

Kemp's got too good of an arm being wasted in Fenway's LF. Would prefer Buch/Lackey and Victorino for Kemp and a prospect. Put Kemp in RF, where his speed and arm is put top better use. Keep Nava's smaller salary over Shane's. You do remove your backup CF, though. 

 
Would the Dodgers have a need in that already crowded outfield for Victorino? Would think they might want to clear out one of those slots rather than replace it. Suppose they could use the DL as a means to stash one or two bodies until Sept call ups.

 

[dcmissle]

The signing window is just very difficult to get done. I assume that Lester has never lived in LA, though he may have some sense of the team from departed colleagues. Unless they are prepared to blow him away with an offer, and I suppose that's possible, I don't know why he'd rush into anything. He is not going to have the opportunity to make even the cursory FA visit.

Even at this, I would not be surprised if LA has enough confidence in itself and what it has to offer to so a naked deal and still pay quite a bit.

If they go this route, though, I would not expect them to do such a deal, give you a prospect haul, and eat any significant portion of Kemp's contract. That strikes me as too much.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

BIG fan of Matt Kemp and I don't think he's nearly as cooked as many seem to believe.  That said, I do NOT want Kemp involved in any deal, even heavily subsidized, unless it's the only way to get both Pederson and Seager from the Dodgers.  I do wonder, however, if Kemp came heavily subsidized to us and we offered to subsidize him more, would the Marlins be interested in him as part of a Stanton trade (possibly reducing the prospects we'd need to send them slightly)?
 
Also, I don't know why people are suggesting deals to the LAD involving Victorino or Nava.  The Dodgers have too many OF to begin with, they don't want more.  I'm not opposed to trading either or both of them, but I don't see the LAD as being a fit.

 

[MakMan44]

Hasn't Kemp had some serious attitude issues this season? I know someone posted a tweet suggesting he wants to come to Boston, but he also wants to play CF if he gets traded. I agree with Yaz, I don't think he's fully cooked (though the Stanton thing borders on fairy tale) but I'm not all that interested either. 

 

[benhogan]

after seeing the Soria and Peavy deals, I have to think:
 
Lester gets us 2 elite prospects + a lottery ticket (i.e. Pederson + Urias or Seager)
Koji gets us someones #1 or 2 prospect + lottery ticket
Miller gets us someones top 3 prospect
 
I'd like us to re-sign all of them prior to free agency to make us 'better for April 2015'  BUT
if Henry and ownership are going to let these guys go to free agency might as well monetize these assets. 
 
I'd actually rather see us deal Victorino, take those savings and put it to signing Lester AND go with a combination of Holt/Betts in RF and utility roles.

 

[jimbobim]

Hasn't Kemp had some serious attitude issues this season? I know someone posted a tweet suggesting he wants to come to Boston, but he also wants to play CF if he gets traded. I agree with Yaz, I don't think he's fully cooked (though the Stanton thing borders on fairy tale) but I'm not all that interested either. 

 
His attitude issue can be distilled down to the fact that it's dumb and doesn't make baseball sense to continue carrying 4 OF 5( if you include pederson) for 3 spots. I've been a big Kemp fan since interest from the Sox was first reported during the winter meetings. 
 
He's not MVP Kemp anymore but I believe him and the Wall would be a marvelous combination. Not to Mention a 3/4/5 of Ortiz Napoli Kemp is so much better then the crap we'v run out this year. 
 
Obviously he's not going to be a regular CF in Boston. Anyone with two working eyes can see JBJ is a sterling defensive CF. Our OF has been so bad that his bat would easily play in LF/RF especially if Vic can't stay on the field again next year. 

 

[MakMan44]

And he starts problems AGAIN because he's not a CF here? 
 
EDIT: I'm not saying it's the most likely scenario, but when you're acquiring a player who has publicly stated a desire for something that isn't going to happen here and he's going to be here for the next 5 years, it's something to think about before pulling the trigger on a deal. 

 

[bosockboy]

Definitely the ingredients for a 2nd Dodgers mega deal.

Lester/Koji/Miller for Kemp/Seager/cash.

 

[Drek717]

And he starts problems AGAIN because he's not a CF here? 
 
EDIT: I'm not saying it's the most likely scenario, but when you're acquiring a player who has publicly stated a desire for something that isn't going to happen here and he's going to be here for the next 5 years, it's something to think about before pulling the trigger on a deal. 

Depends why he wants to play CF, and it's a lot easier for him to make the argument when it is him or Ethier versus him and JBJ.
 
Also, you'd have to imagine Kemp would be pretty amenable to compromise if that is what it takes to get him out of L.A. at this point.  Leaving there is clearly his top priority.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Hasn't Kemp had some serious attitude issues this season? I know someone posted a tweet suggesting he wants to come to Boston, but he also wants to play CF if he gets traded. I agree with Yaz, I don't think he's fully cooked (though the Stanton thing borders on fairy tale) but I'm not all that interested either. 

I think the attitude thing can be attributed to being regulated to a 20 million dollar 4th outfielder at the beginning of the year. I don't think he's cooked and next year could rebound to have great numbers in Fenway. Dave Stewart has been pretty adamant about bringing Kemp here so I think any big deal with LA would probably involve Kemp and not Joc.

 

[Drek717]

Definitely the ingredients for a 2nd Dodgers mega deal.

Lester/Koji/Miller for Kemp/Seager/cash.

Why not go all in?
 
Lester/Koji/Miller/Nava/Herrera for Kemp/Seager/Van Slyke/cash and one of Bellinger/Scavuzzo/Sweeney from their low minors.
 
Besides, it isn't a Sox/Dodgers deal until a worthless utility infielder is included for us to name the trade after.

 

[someoneanywhere]

Definitely the ingredients for a 2nd Dodgers mega deal.

Lester/Koji/Miller for Kemp/Seager/cash.

So, if you're going to commit to Kemp, which plenty of people worry about aside from the money, why would you care about the cash? And if you're going to toss in Koji and Miller, why would you not want players? If you're thinking mega deal, you're hoping to take advantage of Magic Johnson pounding on the tables demanding a title, damn the costs. So why would you not take advantage of that currency and ask for Pederson as well as Seager?

Lester does have currency for the Sox here, apart from his performance value, in the sense that they'd be giving up their exclusive negotiating window with them. (It may not be worth much but it's always there as negotiating leverage: as in, they could threaten to kill a deal and say they'd rather take the chance he walks and the pick than give up their window by trading him.)

I am generally conservative on what to expect on returns. But here we have a big market team in a highly competitive environment already doubled down to win it, flush with cash and flusher still with competitive ownership and FO personalities. If I'm giving up Lester and some dominant pen pieces toward their championship, and taking on an uncertain but expensive future with Kemp, I'm holding them by the balls.

 

[YTF]

 
His attitude issue can be distilled down to the fact that it's dumb and doesn't make baseball sense to continue carrying 4 OF 5( if you include pederson) for 3 spots. I've been a big Kemp fan since interest from the Sox was first reported during the winter meetings. 
 
He's not MVP Kemp anymore but I believe him and the Wall would be a marvelous combination. Not to Mention a 3/4/5 of Ortiz Napoli Kemp is so much better then the crap we'v run out this year. 
 
Obviously he's not going to be a regular CF in Boston. Anyone with two working eyes can see JBJ is a sterling defensive CF. Our OF has been so bad that his bat would easily play in LF/RF especially if Vic can't stay on the field again next year. 

 
 
Wouldn't mind a heavily subsidized Kemp here. As you mentioned I think I think he would be a good addition behind Ortiz and Napoli, but I'd also like to see if the Sox can move Victorino before the deadline and look toward using his 13 million to bring in a more dependable OF bat to drop in the six hole and present something similar to this as the 2015 lineup with Farrell figuring out the lefty, righty from Kemp on depending on the third outfielder and matchups.
 
Holt 3B
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Napoli 1B
Kemp LF/RF
? LF/RF
Bogaerts SS
Vazquez C
Bradley CF
 
1-4 and 7-9 not much different from what the Sox may put out there today depending on who's in the lineup, but that 6 and 7 slot could be vastly improved.  

 

[ehaz]

So, if you're going to commit to Kemp, which plenty of people worry about aside from the money, why would you care about the cash? And if you're going to toss in Koji and Miller, why would you not want players? If you're thinking mega deal, you're hoping to take advantage of Magic Johnson pounding on the tables demanding a title, damn the costs. So why would you not take advantage of that currency and ask for Pederson as well as Seager?

Addison Russel + not that much else cost Shark, who had an additional year of control (thus the possibility of being flipped again). I highly doubt the Red Sox would be able to demand TWO of Seager/Urias/Pederson unless it involved more pieces that were team controllable for the Dodgers. We'd have to be taking back Kemp non subsidized in addition to giving up someone else useful like one of the AAA pitching prospects and/or Doubront, Middlebrooks, Holt etc.

Also, not to nitpick but I doubt Magic makes any substantive baseball decisions, he barely owns Punto's jockstrap and is merely a figurehead for the ownership.

 

[HurstSoGood]

On the Sox thinking they can trade Lester and he will resign with Boston: I am a bit worried that Lester will quickly realize (or already knows) that he could spend the next 5-7 years dominating the NL West, especially if he lands with LA. I don't think it is unrealistic that Jon could grab another 100 career wins in that time -  and reach the playoffs more often there. Not to mention, the guy will get his money.
 
I would wish Lester "good luck," but he is not going to need it. We are.

 

[someoneanywhere]

I understand all that. My point is that perception, competitive climate -- that sort of thing -- is currency here. I would trade on it, and trade on the perception of mega deal itself: otherwise I would walk away.

 

[jimbobim]

The other thinking I would say has to be a consideration of the mindset of the Dodgers. Kemp's money is going to be reapportioned to either Lester in a resign or Hanley for a resign. 
 
Would the Red Sox take on all of Kemp's money to essentially buy another prospect ? I don't think they'll give up pederson and seager simply because Pederson is slotted to take Kemp's roster spot. Seager is a little further away but if you say 
 
Lester 
Koji 
Miller 
 
for 
 
Kemp unsubsidized 
Seager 
Peterson
 
Dodgers dump the entirety of a bloated contract and acquire a playoff rotation of Kershaw Lester Grienke Ryu and a 8th and 9th inning shutdown guys . All free agents but your the Dodgers and you just cleared 100 mill plus. Also your bullpen gets filthy with Kenly/Miller in the 8th and Koji in the 9th . 
 
Meanwhile the Red Sox lose their ace in both the rotation and bullpen but Pederson and Seager along with Kemp even with his contract are a substantial haul I would say. 

 

[Yaz4Ever]

The other thinking I would say has to be a consideration of the mindset of the Dodgers. Kemp's money is going to be reapportioned to either Lester in a resign or Hanley for a resign. 
 
Would the Red Sox take on all of Kemp's money to essentially buy another prospect ? I don't think they'll give up pederson and seager simply because Pederson is slotted to take Kemp's roster spot. Seager is a little further away but if you say 
 
Lester 
Koji 
Miller 
 
for 
 
Kemp unsubsidized 
Seager 
Peterson
 
Dodgers dump the entirety of a bloated contract and acquire a playoff rotation of Kershaw Lester Grienke Ryu and a 8th and 9th inning shutdown guys . All free agents but your the Dodgers and you just cleared 100 mill plus. Also your bullpen gets filthy with Kenly/Miller in the 8th and Koji in the 9th . 
 
Meanwhile the Red Sox lose their ace in both the rotation and bullpen but Pederson and Seager along with Kemp even with his contract are a substantial haul I would say. 

No way.  Add Urias or Ben isn't taking it seriously, or so I hope.

 

[The Boomer]

The other thinking I would say has to be a consideration of the mindset of the Dodgers. Kemp's money is going to be reapportioned to either Lester in a resign or Hanley for a resign. 
 
Would the Red Sox take on all of Kemp's money to essentially buy another prospect ? I don't think they'll give up pederson and seager simply because Pederson is slotted to take Kemp's roster spot. Seager is a little further away but if you say 
 
Lester 
Koji 
Miller 
 
for 
 
Kemp unsubsidized 
Seager 
Peterson
 
Dodgers dump the entirety of a bloated contract and acquire a playoff rotation of Kershaw Lester Grienke Ryu and a 8th and 9th inning shutdown guys . All free agents but your the Dodgers and you just cleared 100 mill plus. Also your bullpen gets filthy with Kenly/Miller in the 8th and Koji in the 9th . 
 
Meanwhile the Red Sox lose their ace in both the rotation and bullpen but Pederson and Seager along with Kemp even with his contract are a substantial haul I would say. 

 
Acquiring Kemp and his albatross contract defeats the purpose of trading Lester.  They are betting off letting Lester walk for the draft pick than doing this.

 

[dcmissle]

Yes.

But along with that comes the stipulation that unless everything falls right for the RS in the offseason ( and I mean everything) Ben has to amend his statement on the Peavy trade to:

"Focus is on April 16"

Realistically that's where you are after parting with your ace, closer and another solid reliever.

 

[YTF]

 
Acquiring Kemp and his albatross contract defeats the purpose of trading Lester.  They are betting off letting Lester walk for the draft pick than doing this.

 
 It also to some extent undoes the Punto deal.

 

[Puffy]

 
Acquiring Kemp and his albatross contract defeats the purpose of trading Lester.  They are betting off letting Lester walk for the draft pick than doing this.

 
No kidding.  Why not just use the money we would pay Kemp to pay Lester?

 

[Corsi]

The Braves are believed to be looking closely at lefty Andrew Miller of the Red Sox as their prime bullpen target, with some other lefties in the mix.
 
Atlanta has identified lefty in the pen as its biggest need, with Oliver Perez, who interested the Braves in the winter, Wesley Wright, Neal Cotts, Tony Sipp and Mike Dunn are among other accomplished pen lefties believed available in trade.
 
Miller, a free agent after the year, is having a spectucular season in Boston's pen (64 strikeouts and only 12 walks in 39 1/3 innings to go with a 2.52 ERA), and the fading Red Sox have said they are now "listening" to trade inquiries.
 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24639002/braves-looking-at-miller-other-pen-lefties-little-room-for-huge-moves

 

[MICHAELG63]

StockMatusow @StockMatusow · 6m


#Dodgers #RedSox working on deal Lester to Dodgers for prospect Joc Pederson and mid level prospect on condition Lester signs extension #MLB
 

 

[67WasBest]

Make it a 3 way with Seattle, who wants Kemp more than I think the Sox do.
 
Lester, Miller and Herrera to Dodgers
Subsidized Kemp to Seattle
Pederson, Seager and Walker to Boston
 
Ben throws in lesser chips to even out years of control and it becomes forever known as the Herrera trade.
 
Koji and a lesser chip to Pittsburgh for Meadows

 

[soxhop411]

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24639002/braves-looking-at-miller-other-pen-lefties-little-room-for-huge-moves

 

RT @DOBrienAJC: Am hearing now that #RedSox lefty Andrew Miller is indeed available. #Braves are still on him, have scout following team.
 
https://twitter.com/DOBrienAJC/status/493430832556953600

 

[Yaz4Ever]

RT @DOBrienAJC: Am hearing now that #RedSox lefty Andrew Miller is indeed available. #Braves are still on him, have scout following team.
 
https://twitter.com/DOBrienAJC/status/493430832556953600

What would get for him?  Kubitza?

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Atlanta doesn't have much of anything in the minors right now. Most of the exceptional young talent is in the majors.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Make it a 3 way with Seattle, who wants Kemp more than I think the Sox do.
 
Lester, Miller and Herrera to Dodgers
Subsidized Kemp to Seattle
Pederson, Seager and Walker to Boston
 
Ben throws in lesser chips to even out years of control and it becomes forever known as the Herrera trade.
 
Koji and a lesser chip to Pittsburgh for Meadows

Although I can't imagine SEA trading Walker for Kemp, I'd do that deal in a heartbeat.  Therefore, it won't happen

 

[soxhop411]

“@BiertempfelTrib: #RedSox are shopping lefty Andrew Miller. #pirates are interested, have been scouting sox for couple of weeks.”
 
https://twitter.com/BiertempfelTrib/status/493431544896184320

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

StockMatusow @StockMatusowhttps://twitter.com/StockMatusow ·  [URL="https://twitter.com/StockMatusow/status/493429539947962368

https://twitter.com/StockMatusow/status/493429539947962368"]6m

link to tweet[/url]

#Dodgers #RedSox working on deal Lester to Dodgers for prospect Joc Pederson and mid level prospect on condition Lester signs extension #MLB
 


This would be a crap deal. If it's a condition of him signing an extension than I want both Joc and Seager.

 

[dcmissle]

The deal would be for Pederson, mid-level prospect, and Lester-not-in-pinstripes in that event. Don't undervalue that last element.

 

[MakMan44]

Is that a reputable source? I've never heard of it before today

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

What the hell does a self proclaimed stock market guru know about baseball inner workings?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Who the fuck is Stock Matusow and why in the world would he (she?) have a scoop like this before any beat/national writer?
 
It's total BS until someone with some actual connection to MLB reports it.  I mean, do you see the tweet before this one?  Sounds like a fan tweeting some fantasy trade to me.

 

[soxhop411]

Atlanta doesn't have much of anything in the minors right now. Most of the exceptional young talent is in the majors.

PIT might be a better matchup..

 

[bosockboy]

Correctumundo. Getting him to LA is a huge piece of the trade.

 

[tomdeplonty]

Hasn't conventional wisdom been that Lester wants to test the FA market? Why does he sign this extension?
 
Unless they're planning to bury him in money, I suppose.

 

[ehaz]

Is that a reputable source? I've never heard of it before today

 
Does not seem very reputable to me, the Twitter account belongs to an investor who writes for Seeking Alpha.  Maybe he has some sort of in with one of the ownerships?

 

[RedOctober3829]

https://twitter.com/biertempfeltrib/status/493431544896184320

 

[Plympton91]

This is like fantasy league baseball, it sucks.

Lester to Dodges for Peterson, plus. Then Peterson, Owens, and 2 lesser guys to Marlins for Stanton?

The 3 most attractive FA for 2015 are Koji, Miller, and Lester. If the Red Sox aren't paying them, then how in the hell are they going to field a championship caliber team, to say nothing of spending the promised level of near the luxury tax. That requires a series of trades, but it takes two interested teams to make a trade.

As DC Missile said, maybe what Cherington meant to say was the we're focusing on April 2016. That's when guys like Bogaerts Betts and Bradley should be fully cooked.

 

[ScubaSteveAvery]

I think any team giving up significant prospects is going to want Lester to sign an extension. It's not logical to give up a top 25 prospect or even multiple top 100 prospects for 2 months and an exclusive negotiation window. Plus, given that Lester won't carry any draft pick compensation, Lester's agent probably wouldn't even consider a contract during the exclusive window after the season since he would have more suitors during free agency.

 

[bosockboy]

Miller for Josh Bell?

 

[sittingstill]

What the hell does a self proclaimed stock market guru know about baseball inner workings?

https://twitter.com/StockMatusow/status/491737868822642688

 

[MakMan44]

Miller for Josh Bell?

Yeeeeesssssssss

 

[SoxFanInPdx]

Oh Twitter, don't ever change.

 

[dcmissle]

Anyone who tweets "Harren is a bum" is a punk fanboy, presumptively unreliable.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

I would gather that Miller and a few other relievers will be moved within the next 24-48 hours. Lots of interesting possibilities here. I still think despite the sell off the plan is to compete for a World Series title next year. So I wouldn't expect the Sox to go into a full blown rebuild.

 

[dcmissle]

I would gather that Miller and a few other relievers will be moved within the next 24-48 hours. Lots of interesting possibilities here. I still think despite the sell off the plan is to compete for a World Series title next year. So I wouldn't expect the Sox to go into a full blown rebuild.

They can plan whatever they please. Stuff that works on PCs and in labs often doesn't in real life. If they flip Lester, Miller and Koj, we are looking at 21 months, not 9.

 

[Al Zarilla]

This is like fantasy league baseball, it sucks.

Lester to Dodges for Peterson, plus. Then Peterson, Owens, and 2 lesser guys to Marlins for Stanton?

The 3 most attractive FA for 2015 are Koji, Miller, and Lester. If the Red Sox aren't paying them, then how in the hell are they going to field a championship caliber team, to say nothing of spending the promised level of near the luxury tax. That requires a series of trades, but it takes two interested teams to make a trade.

As DC Missile said, maybe what Cherington meant to say was the we're focusing on April 2016. That's when guys like Bogaerts Betts and Bradley should be fully cooked.

Not sure I like your choice of word cooked, especially the way Bogaerts has been going for most of the year now.