Noted in the Yankees thread but it’s a pretty rough FA pool next year. Bird in the hand…
Red Sox in season discussion
- Thread starter Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat
- Start date
We don't worry about that around here. Bloom is laying the groundwork for some amazing trades.
Interesting numbers. Do you have something to back up the offer? Do you think he would take this?
Perhaps they would go more on the AAV. I can see them offering a longer contract than the Sox would comfortable with.
He had his worst season since his second year in the big leagues and has had elbow problems.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/storytr01.shtml
https://www.si.com/mlb/yankees/news/why-new-york-yankees-shouldnt-sign-trevor-story-elbow-injury-history
"According to NJ Advance Media, several scouts around the league believe that Story is better suited to play second base due to his diminished arm strength. Story has dealt with several elbow strains over the last few seasons, which is why a shift to second could help reduce the wear-and-tear on his arm. "
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/storytr01.shtml
https://www.si.com/mlb/yankees/news/why-new-york-yankees-shouldnt-sign-trevor-story-elbow-injury-history
"According to NJ Advance Media, several scouts around the league believe that Story is better suited to play second base due to his diminished arm strength. Story has dealt with several elbow strains over the last few seasons, which is why a shift to second could help reduce the wear-and-tear on his arm. "
The SS market won't be too bad if Correa opts out. Correa, Turner, and Xander are three pretty good options for SS needy teams. Who will need a SS next season though? Xander is a good fit for this team and can slide to 3B if Mayer pans out. If Devers can't improve his defense at 3B and/or become a 1.000 OPS hitter as a 3B I wouldn't be surprised if we let him walk.
I think Bloom doesn't really see this as an ultra competitive team and didn't want to go all in on one of the top FAs if it wasn't going to make us a championship team. Correa or Story doesn't make us better than the Dodgers, Yankees, or Blue Jays. Dalbec gets more time at 1B to see if he can keep up his late season success, Durran gets time in CF to see if he can be a major league contributor, and Casas gets called up at the deadline when we trade JDM.
Is Casas the type of prospect you sign to a super early extension if he comes up this year and plays well? I am hoping Bloom is much more aggressive with signing guys to the Acuna/Franco type extensions than previous GMs have been.
Y'know, this slipped past us while we were all taking in the Correa news, but I'm happy about it. Hansel was pretty good in some clutch situations. It's insurance in case Barnes has indeed turned into a pumpkin.
This seems pretty extreme to me. A 1.000 OPS hitter is an incredibly high bar. Only 14 players have had a 1.000 OPS season since the start of 2018. His defense is certainly a concern, but IMO if the choice is between extending Devers and extending Bogaerts (and to be clear, I think they both can/should be extended), Devers is the one.
Yankees know this is a chance to assure the Sox a 4th place team...going for the kill.
Fair enough! Maybe the 1.000 OPS bar is too high, but I think I would like to see him improve offensively a bit if we are going to be offering him some large 10 year 300 mil+ extension. He doesn't seem like a player that will be a particularly good defensive 3B as he ages. If he is 1B/DH type of player I don't see the need to extend him before he hits FA. If Dalbec can be a more consistent player he can occupy that 1B/DH spot with Casas as the primary 1B. Devers could hit the FA market at the same time as Machado(if he opts out), an old Josh Donaldson, Matt Chapman, and Jose Ramirez. He would be the youngest of that group but maybe the 4th best option, especially if he is still a mediocre/bad defensive 3B.
I must admit (finally) some frustration with Bloom. I wasn't caught up in the mania surrounding the other FAs - they were either square pegs in round holes, too pricey or too long term. I bought and still buy the long term flexibility strategy. I bought focus on need. I never thought Correa was anything but a fantasy, although it turned out he was willing to accept what amounted to a pillow deal. Stuff happens.
But 2d base is an issue, unless you want to screw up the outfield by moving Kike there. Yorke is well down the food chain. Independently, Bloom has to make a best estimate as to whether he can and will extend Bogie when he opts out, and my guess is he's concluded its less likely. Story was the proper answer. If Story will cover 2d while Bogie and Boras did the inevitable rain dance that likely will lead to FA status, he can then cover SS for a few years (if his arm will take it) till Mayer matriculated, then migrate back to 2d till Yorke arrived. Now, the NYY are in the mix, and Randy Levine's obsession with dominating the RS and the pressure on Cashman to deliver may result in the RS simply being outbid.
I seldom comment. Many of you are better informed than I am. I try to avoid the ranting nonsense you see all over the Net. I am not for throwing money around fantasy BB style. That never appealed to me as a fan. Leave that to the Glitz-obsessed NYY fans (sorry Jon). But this is a situation where the financial resources could make a difference, and we're still sitting around waiting for Chaim to do something besides tell us he's had lots of interesting conversations. For that, he could have joined a Chautauqua circle to talk about Great Books. Close the damn deal, Chaim. or tell us why you couldn't.
(I feel much better.)
But 2d base is an issue, unless you want to screw up the outfield by moving Kike there. Yorke is well down the food chain. Independently, Bloom has to make a best estimate as to whether he can and will extend Bogie when he opts out, and my guess is he's concluded its less likely. Story was the proper answer. If Story will cover 2d while Bogie and Boras did the inevitable rain dance that likely will lead to FA status, he can then cover SS for a few years (if his arm will take it) till Mayer matriculated, then migrate back to 2d till Yorke arrived. Now, the NYY are in the mix, and Randy Levine's obsession with dominating the RS and the pressure on Cashman to deliver may result in the RS simply being outbid.
I seldom comment. Many of you are better informed than I am. I try to avoid the ranting nonsense you see all over the Net. I am not for throwing money around fantasy BB style. That never appealed to me as a fan. Leave that to the Glitz-obsessed NYY fans (sorry Jon). But this is a situation where the financial resources could make a difference, and we're still sitting around waiting for Chaim to do something besides tell us he's had lots of interesting conversations. For that, he could have joined a Chautauqua circle to talk about Great Books. Close the damn deal, Chaim. or tell us why you couldn't.
(I feel much better.)
It appears Story wants to remain at shortstop. Sox don't have an opening there for the upcoming season (and there is no certainty about an opening in subsequent years). Story to Boston was always going to be an uphill battle.
As for frustrations with Bloom, I think missing on Schwarber or Stroman or even ERod would be more on target.
Hopefully he has a trade or two on the back burner that will come to fruition once the free agent market settles.
As for frustrations with Bloom, I think missing on Schwarber or Stroman or even ERod would be more on target.
Hopefully he has a trade or two on the back burner that will come to fruition once the free agent market settles.
If the Sox had to go to war with what they currently have, I still think they’re a pretty good squad.
The offense is top tier. Not elite, but top tier. They’ve got a million relievers and while none are elite, they’ve got some pretty good arms and tons of depth.
The rotation is not strong, especially with Sale down for a while. But if they can hang in until July, they’ll have both Sale and Paxton to boost the rotation. And they’ve got lots of interesting talent in the minors.
They’re not an elite team. But they’ll be competitive even as presently constituted.
The offense is top tier. Not elite, but top tier. They’ve got a million relievers and while none are elite, they’ve got some pretty good arms and tons of depth.
The rotation is not strong, especially with Sale down for a while. But if they can hang in until July, they’ll have both Sale and Paxton to boost the rotation. And they’ve got lots of interesting talent in the minors.
They’re not an elite team. But they’ll be competitive even as presently constituted.
I wish I shared that optimism. As constructed I don’t think they have any shot of competing in that division at all.
Is there ever really a scenario where an owner wants to spend money and the GM says no? Bloom seems more like he is trying to make chicken salad out of the chicken shit ownership handed him to work with than telling Henry to keep his money in his pocket.
I think the team as of today is pretty mediocre. The rotation is a mess without Sale. They currently have Rich Hill and Michael Wacha penciled in. Huge opportunity for Houck to step and he pretty much needs to. The hope is obviously to tread water until Sale/Paxton come back although it’s entirely unknown how effective they’ll be when they do. The pen seems to have enough arms to figure it out but still a bit of a mystery. The offense should be ok but really needs JD to be an impact bat. The bottom of the lineup is pretty bad unless Dalbec emerges as a consistent player. JBJ being part of a platoon will be a hit to the lineup. He is terrible.
The pitching concerns me the most; having to move Whitlock and / or Houck into the rotation severely weakens an already suspect pen that really needs a lot to go right (Barnes to find his stuff, Brasier to stay healthy, Sawa to keep being lucky).
The offense should be good enough but is lacking in depth, especially in the OF.
If they can hang in the race, though, they have the flexibility to add talent and should see some help from the system.
A competitive team and a full season in deck, could be worse!
The offense should be good enough but is lacking in depth, especially in the OF.
If they can hang in the race, though, they have the flexibility to add talent and should see some help from the system.
A competitive team and a full season in deck, could be worse!
My impression was the ERod was unhappy with the organization - maybe he felt that Cora was on his back, which he probably and correctly was - and that he took the money without even considering further dialogue with the RS.
I love Schwarber and what he brought, ha and Napoli together would have been something else, but I didn't think he really solved any problems, given his limitations in the field. He would have blocked whatever we have in Dalbec or will have in Casas at 1st, unless he just became a DH, and it may be that's what Bloom is considering for either Bogie or Devers.
You may have a point with Stroman but I don't recall a lot of discussion about missed opportunitie when he signed..
I’m not quite so pessimistic but the pitching does look potentially rough and there’s no way to consider them favorites.
If they end up not signing Story I’ll be wondering whether they consciously opted to keep the powder dry, let the new $ wash through a bit, let the prospects marinate for a couple months, and make some roster noise during the season.
I know that pitching usage has changed and bullpens are more important, but I'm not sure I buy that having Houck and/or Whitlock in the rotation is a net negative. As starters, they'd be expected to throw at least 120-140 innings each. That's better than the 70-80 they'd be expected to contribute out of the pen, no? Of course, the staff would be better in general if they had enough strong starters to push those guys to the pen, but it's not the worst thing in the world if those two are starters all year.
Totally fair point and makes sense, I think my concern is mostly about high leverage innings and who will take care of them. Last year, Houck, Barnes, and Ottavino were the key guys in big spots (with Whitlock assuming that role as Barnes faltered late). If those guys are in the rotation, seems like that falls to Barnes, Brasier, and Diekman I guess? Not as confident about those three. Of course, with better starting pitching perhaps there are fewer high leverage innings needed from the pen, and we know strong relievers can emerge from almost anywhere.
One thing to think about, though…if you think the team is at least going to be moderately competitive, is it best to spend up to your max before the season starts, or to hold a significant amount of money to use mid-season? With the latter, you have multiple opportunities to assess where you are and what you need, and it’s also likely that at least several of your prospects will be more valuable in a few months than they are now. The only risk is if the team is so bad that they aren’t competitive, which seems unlikely…and if it’s the case, no big splash now would have mattered.
Toronto got more offense. NYY got more offense. Red Sox lost a bunch of offense. And have their “ace” hurt yet again. And acquired a number of injured pitchers and mediocre relievers. I still don’t understand moving Renfroe - or at least not what they moved him for. Really don’t get letting Schwarber go either if they didn’t plan on getting another bat. Maybe they still will, but unless it’s via trade there’s not much left.
Agree 100%. As constructed this an average team on paper. No idea why the front office decided to punt this season. Looks like with a few tweaks it could have been at least competitive. Maybe they will surprise like last year but I have my doubts.
Twins GM Derek Falvey is a local guy. Graduated from Governor Dummer Academy and the Red Sox is his dream job. Very smart guy. I hope whenever Bloom moves on, he is the next guy for the Sox.
“Competitive” feels a hard pill to swallow in a big market city with a big market payroll.
i agree there is a pathway to a wildcard berth if everything breaks right. But I also see a pathway to a very very middling season if we have many more Sale-like setbacks.
100 percent. We’ll see where Story, Montas and Manaea go, but this is close to a disaster scenario. Only other FAs left worth more than 1 win are two dreadful outfielders with good but questionable bats (Pham, Soler) and one left-handed power goof who doesn’t fit our park or the handedness of our outfield.
I am a huge fan of Bloom, but there is no way this is by design. Either we got rebuffed at every turn, or it’s an extremely penny-wise, pound-foolish offseason at a time when the CBT gave us all the reason to spend on this and future teams without penalty.
They lost Semien and gained Chapman, likely a decided loss on offense and a big gain on defense. They added Gausman and Kikuchi but lost Ray, I'd call it a roughly sideways offseason for them as of now, still impressive given they lost Semien and Ray (14 bWAR between them last year).
I have a hard time understanding some of concern with regards to comparisons to last year, especially around the pitching. We only got 42 innings out of Sale last year, so if anything that should be an upgrade this season. We had 22 starts from Martin Perez with a FIP around 5, so it's likely that at worst that's a wash with Wacha stepping in for those innings. EdRo pitched 157 innings for us, and while his advanced metrics were good, his actual results were poor, so having Rich Hill (who pitched 158 innings last year) replace him isn't ideal, but basically if you assume a half season of Hill and a half season of Sale combine for those innings, it doesn't seem like we are going to be suddenly losing games we would have won last year in a significant way versus the rotation we had when we almost reached the World Series. We got about 16 WAR out of pitchers who made at least 5 starts for us in 2021. Looking at projections for this year's team, most value lost there is coming from predicted regression from Eovaldi, Houck, and Pivetta. Losing EdRo will likely hurt, no way around that, but I don't think the pitching in aggregate will be a substantial liability compared to last season.
Similarly, Schwarber was good, but only had 168 PAs for us last year. There is no reason we can't pick up another great bat at the deadline for ~200 PAs down the stretch this year (don't forget, he was hurt at the time we traded for him, so there is definitely a pattern that Bloom seems to be finding value in getting injured assets at a discount, banking on future value). I definitely wanted a better replacement plan for Renfroe, but a bounce-back offensively from Vaz would go a ways towards offsetting that loss, and maybe Dalbec's second half wasn't a mirage and he is actually able to strike out a little less while hitting 30 bombs.
Ultimately, this team definitely got a little lucky last year, and was probably never quite as good as their success indicated. But I'm not sure that they are all that much worse this year, and if Bloom thought that the true talent level of the team was 85 wins to start with last year, I could see not overextending to shorten our potential window in a year when the rest of the division seems determined to get into an arms race that may weaken them in 2024-2028, when our next wave of talent is arriving.
Similarly, Schwarber was good, but only had 168 PAs for us last year. There is no reason we can't pick up another great bat at the deadline for ~200 PAs down the stretch this year (don't forget, he was hurt at the time we traded for him, so there is definitely a pattern that Bloom seems to be finding value in getting injured assets at a discount, banking on future value). I definitely wanted a better replacement plan for Renfroe, but a bounce-back offensively from Vaz would go a ways towards offsetting that loss, and maybe Dalbec's second half wasn't a mirage and he is actually able to strike out a little less while hitting 30 bombs.
Ultimately, this team definitely got a little lucky last year, and was probably never quite as good as their success indicated. But I'm not sure that they are all that much worse this year, and if Bloom thought that the true talent level of the team was 85 wins to start with last year, I could see not overextending to shorten our potential window in a year when the rest of the division seems determined to get into an arms race that may weaken them in 2024-2028, when our next wave of talent is arriving.
I'd be very surprised if a big trade was coming. And I'm OK with that -- the next wave of talent is a couple of years away, I want to maximize the cost controlled talent they have for that period. Spending is a different issue -- this team was 2 games form the WS last year, and people were pretty excited about it, and there's no reason to think it was a massive, unrepeatable fluke. There have been lots of short term deals (Correa and Stroman at the top of the list) that would have helped in the near term without crippling the long term. Instead we are going have a starting OF whose trade value was such that the Brewers gave us two prospects to take him away.
This works in theory, but which seller teams have pieces that we’d want to buy? Remember that the added Wild Card slot means fewer teams are selling at the trade deadline, and a bunch of cellar-dwellers just signed stars to mega deals.
We’ll see how the games play out, but the only semi-good players signed to semi-expensive contracts on possible non-contenders are:
Baltimore (Mancini, Santander, Means)
Cleveland (Bieber, Ramirez, Reyes)
Detroit (Fulmer, Candelario)
Kansas City (Mondesi, Garrett, Benintendi, Santana)
Minnesota (Sanchez, Rogers)
Oakland (Laureano, Trivino, Manaea, Montas)
Seattle (Haniger, Frazier)
Washington (Soto, Ross, Bell)
St. Louis (Flaherty, Dickerson)
Pittsburgh (Reynolds)
Milwaukee (Cain, McCutchen, Narvaez, Hader)
Miami (Aguilar, Anderson, Cooper, Bleier)
Colorado (Márquez)
Cincinnati (Votto, Moustakas, Castillo, Mahle, Minor, Naquin)
Chicago Cubs (Contreras, Happ, Heyward, Miley)
Arizona (Marte, Bumgarner, Kelly, Peralta, Ahmed)
Forgive me for the semi-long list. Not all these guys will be traded of course (and Montas and Manaea probably will be imminently). But these are the only guys I can see making any sort of “real money” where our financial heft would be more useful in a trade than outbidding with a prospect haul.
Of course, most of the guys worth chasing there (Ramirez, Marte, Reynolds, Bieber, Castillo, Montas and Soto) will require a prospect haul. I suppose we may be in a good position to assume Jesús Aguilar’s or Michael Fulmer’s contract without giving up much in return. Big deal.
Maybe Papí has the inside scoop that Juan Soto really wants to play here? Who can say. But this offseason is a huge missed opportunity. The Boston Red Sox shouldn’t need to take 3-4 years to do a rebuild.
The Robles signing is likely a reaction to the Sale injury, and it likely means Whitlock to the rotation (at least for the first few months). I'm a fan.
We now have ammunition for a reverse Anderson-Bagwell deal
That’s the only saving grace for this off-season
You're right that the S&P basically matches the CAGR (with dividends reinvested S&P is at ~8.7%; Henry's Sox are only at ~8.4% based solely on values). They arent particularly comparable assets once you account for the benefits of the historical cash flow: mainly the ability to finance the purchase up front and then to distribute funds. Sports teams operate a bit more like a commercial real estate fund - a lot of the returns are through annual cash.
Henry's returns on committed capital are certainly well in excess of the 8.4%. Based on the reports at the time approximately 30% of the purchase price was debt ($200M from Fleet out of a $700M purchase price). Certainly not a heavily levered purchase, but just that puts you at more like 11% before accounting for operational profit.
Top line estimate of revenue (adjusted for revenue sharing) is about $400M - they pay ~$60M in revenue sharing implying a local market of $170M/.48 or $350M. Add in a $30M net from national TV (90M) less the revenue sharing payment (60M) plus some other revenue streams and conservatively they pull in $400M a year. Even if they spend $250M on player salaries and luxury tax and $100M on other operational costs - they net $50M a year or an additional 10% of committed capital so theyre probably look at annual returns somewhere in the low 20s. Basedo n the Braves financials, this net cash flow seems reasonable (Braves reported OIBDA of $100M for 2021 - some of this would naturally need to be spent on park maintenance).
In reality, Henry has likely used much of this cash flow on his other FSG ventures rather than going directly to his pocket, but making it out as he just plunked his $300M or so into the S&P seems wildly off base.
The Sox last year could have just as easily come in 4th, which is where most projected them. If we’re honest I think we have to look at some unsustainably good play in the first half leading to that, and we can’t necessarily expect that Bloom and the FO were bamboozled by that into adjusting their long-term spending plans.
Given the kind of deals Bloom has made, I wouldn’t be surprised if he sees the way to deal with the FA market is to let other teams spend, and then get the players in trade in the back end with subsidized money and prospects back.
Given the kind of deals Bloom has made, I wouldn’t be surprised if he sees the way to deal with the FA market is to let other teams spend, and then get the players in trade in the back end with subsidized money and prospects back.
I guess Semien would play 3rd, which he did a little back in his early days, if this scenario materializes?
The more recent info has TEX going after Conforto, which makes more sense if they want an OF.
Because, you know, he’s an OF.
Don’t bring logic into this conversation. At this point, let’s move Story to catcher.The more recent info has TEX going after Conforto, which makes more sense if they want an OF.
Because, you know, he’s an OF.
I don’t find Story to be all that great of a prize unless it’s on a sweet deal. Any team would be looking for him to be his former self and its starting to sound like there are so many suitors his market is gonna jump up again.
Or it's exactly by design and we'll understand it better when actually see the whole picture. Frankly, I don't see any slam dunk obvious moves that he could have made but didn't, and I say that as someone who desperately wanted Schwarber back.