Red Sox in season discussion
- Thread starter Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat
- Start date
Hector Gomez is reporting the same thing as Speier now, that our offer to Raffy was too low to warrant further discussion. The same thing was said about JRam on the Guardians and they came to a deal just in time.... there's 24 more hours now with the rainout before the "deadline" ... maybe just wishful thinking from me.
View: https://twitter.com/hgomez27/status/1511821777118560256?s=20&t=GD7KMdbVYkGaco9ULGCITg
EDIT: Gomez tweeted an hour ago Raffy "deserves" a 10/300 extension. So that's his slant if the other tweet is from Raffy's camp, potentially.
View: https://twitter.com/hgomez27/status/1511796690482778116
View: https://twitter.com/hgomez27/status/1511821777118560256?s=20&t=GD7KMdbVYkGaco9ULGCITg
EDIT: Gomez tweeted an hour ago Raffy "deserves" a 10/300 extension. So that's his slant if the other tweet is from Raffy's camp, potentially.
View: https://twitter.com/hgomez27/status/1511796690482778116
I’d thought a spring training trade would settle the crunch but this scenario is probably right. Maybe teams plan to firehose a bunch of guys through the DFA process and hope for the best.
Regardless, it looks like there’ll be a real 40-man crunch by next winter.
We have 12 prospects that Fangraphs projects for 40 FV or higher that we’d need to protect or risk losing in Rule 5 (Casas, Jimenez, Hamilton, Cannon, Bonaci, Decker; Wilkelman Gonzalez, Walter, Ward, Song, German, Wallace). I’d figure 7 of those are locks (Casas, Jimenez, Hamilton, Ward, Walter, Gonzalez and German) to add to the 40-man roster, but YMMV. Still, that’s a lot of prospect depth to leave out on the vine, and the Rule 5 should be pretty active after a year off. That above list doesn’t even count Paulino, Kelly, Feltman, Murphy, Politi, Marcano, Valdez, Gambrell, De La Rosa, Rafaela, Koss and Fitzgerald, all interesting lower-level prospects who could leap forward this year and might be worth adding, and who would also be Rule 5 eligible next winter.
Meanwhile, we have 8 contracts expiring, assuming we pick up Paxton’s option and decline JBJ’s. Darwinzon, Garza, Valdez, Downs, Sawamura, Arauz, Davis, Wong and Danish would be on the DFA/non-tender bubble depending how their season goes. Jettisoning any of them would make more room on the 40-man, but we’d figure to sign some guys next winter too.
All of which is to say that I think a big package trade is eventually coming this year, similar to what the Yankees did to get Gallo last summer. Doesn’t even have to be a blockbuster (Montas, Murphy, Márquez). Maybe once Acuña’s healthy and Drew Waters is up, we can throw Atlanta’s depleted system a couple of these lower-level guys for Adam Duvall, who’d be a great fit on this team.
I'd give Raffy 10/330+ right now, but it's not my money. Maybe the owner would rather have 9 Diekmans
Merloni's proposed offer (8/200 with an opt-out after 5/125) is a reasonable base to build on. If the Sox are anywhere in that ballpark, I'd argue they're on the right track.
Devers is getting $11M this year, figure a raise next year gets him $18M or so, then let's say he gets $30M a year as a free agent. That's 5/120 before he's 30. 8/225 with the opt-out after year 5 might get it done. If it doesn't, Devers must think he can break all the contract records in free agency. Good luck to him.
Is it just me, or do the Pirates sign about a half-dozen Jake Marisnicks every season?
Devers is 25 though, I don’t think an 8 year deal is incredibly appealing for him- I think he should be looking for 10-12 with an opt out after three (and probably other opt outs after that).
Bogaerts signed his current deal at age 26 and it was effectively a seven year deal (6 year extension on top of his existing deal) with a vesting option for year 8. So with his option, he can be a free agent entering his age 30 season or stay on through his age 32 or possibly 33 season.
Devers might be looking for more than that, and the Sox can give it to him, but I don't think the team would be out of line to structure their offer similarly with commensurate increases in money to account for the changing market rates.
I'd hate to have Devers leave, but I don't want to lose him for nothing - or even for the Betts package we got with one year to go before FA. If he's looking to break the bank and Chaim doesn't agree, and we have a bit of a tumble this year, I wonder if he thinks about moving him at the deadline to truly get a haul of prospects.
Jose Ramirez just signed for 5/124. I agree that looks like the neighborhood for a Devers deal.
I know I should relax but this thing is making me anxious. I wanted him extended yesterday and a year ago.
View: https://twitter.com/BOSSportsGordo/status/1511877100860588047
The initial offer was also reportedly better than the Ramirez deal per Gomez.
The initial offer was also reportedly better than the Ramirez deal per Gomez.
Honestly, give him anything short of Trout money or whatever GDP-sized number Juan Soto will get.
I agree that I think Devers NEEDS to be here for the long haul and it should be just whatever the hell he wants. 4 years from now that insane amount isn't likely too far off from what a DH will be getting if he has to move off 3rd base anyhow.
But that insane amount is absolutely going to mean that Xander will be gone after this season.
But that insane amount is absolutely going to mean that Xander will be gone after this season.
No it doesn’t. There is so, so much money available under the tax thresholds.
Devers is a bad fielder who doesn't walk a ton. He's never been in the top 10 for MVP. He's still young and hopefully getting better, and even if he stays the same he's a very good player, but he is not one of the game's inner circle elite players, not yet anyway. I'd like him to stay, but there is a limit on what I would offer.
Over his last 72 games Devers had a walk rate of 10.7%, which is well above average. I think that’s something he may have figured out last year.
Don’t forget that he’ll also benefit substantially from a shift ban going forward. (Which sets him up for a monster season in his would-be walk year.)
Last edited:
This is closer to my position. Would love to have him but no blank check. Much conversation in these threads about moving Devers to 1st / DH in relative near term, which has me contemplate how many $30m years I want to hand out. If he can show up defensively at 3rd this year, as he claims he will, then blank checks (aka 10+ / $300m+) back on the table.
"Don’t forget that he’ll also benefit substantially from a shift ban going forward. (Which sets him up for a monster season in his would-be walk year.)"
I take this statement with a huge grain of salt. IMO this doesn't put Devers any position of leverage. I suspect his numbers will be better, but shouldn't we assume the same to be true throughout MLB? I also think it's safe to say that as the shift rule changes so will attitudes about how to pitch certain players in certain situations. How much of that .04 difference from 2021 might we expect would have changed had there been no shift last season? I'm not sure, but I suspect that it wouldn't be as much as you think. We can't assume that all of Dever's PAs vs the shift were actually hit into the shift. A certain amount of those batted balls had to have been non shift related outs and as I already stated, I think pitching will adapt to a certain degree once the rule changes. I mean if you have a the defense set up behind you in a favorable alignment doesn't it make sense to try to get the batter to hit into that alignment? If that alignment changes, I think pitchers pitch differently.
I've always been pessimistic about this signing because of the role uncertainty. You know that Dave Dombrowski will offer him $300m to play 3B for the all-DH Phillies, but he was literally 1st percentile in Outs Above Average in 2021. Not great.
He projects to hit well enough through his prime that he is a justifiable $20m-plus player as a DH — say, a deal comparable to the one Matt Olson just signed, but a bit more expensive because Devers is closer to FA. But he will (and should) want more than that. He should want not just to be compared positionally, but to the great young players in the game. He should want something closer to Machado's deal. And it sounds like that is indeed how he sees it.
If they can compromise on that, I'd be delighted. But with Dombrowski looming, I don't really see why Devers needs to.
He projects to hit well enough through his prime that he is a justifiable $20m-plus player as a DH — say, a deal comparable to the one Matt Olson just signed, but a bit more expensive because Devers is closer to FA. But he will (and should) want more than that. He should want not just to be compared positionally, but to the great young players in the game. He should want something closer to Machado's deal. And it sounds like that is indeed how he sees it.
If they can compromise on that, I'd be delighted. But with Dombrowski looming, I don't really see why Devers needs to.
Yeah, I'm kind of here. His defense has been below average, with his best feature being his range - however, he's led the league in errors for a third baseman for the past 4 years running. So, I don't know how likely an improvement there is going to be. But it could happen. Otherwise, his option is 1B or DH. He's great with the bat, and had a top 5 season in 2019. But he's not, as you say, inner circle.
We have him for his age 25 and 26 seasons, then he's a FA for age 27 in 2024.
So he's coming into his prime. But he may already be there, effectively. Who knows.
I wouldn't back up the truck and pay him guaranteed inner circle money on the bet he'll become inner circle. Or sustain that into his early 30s. It's not a horrible bet, but there's very much a chance he'll end up being grossly overpaid.
Gonna be a bunch of interesting DFAs today, but one catching my eye is White Sox cutting loose former outfield prospect Micker Adolfo.
Adolfo was ranked #86 overall prospect in 2018. He lost a lot of time with hamate injury, Tommy John surgery and then another elbow surgery in 2019, but he’s still only 25. Huge power bat, cannon of an arm, lots of Ks but had a great spring (.429/.500/.810). Far more to salvage there than Upton or Refsnyder as a platoon with JBJ, I’d say.
View: https://twitter.com/tripleajeff/status/1441523977273233412?s=21&t=IJIrQNRn8Lxv0qjNncRIdA
Adolfo was ranked #86 overall prospect in 2018. He lost a lot of time with hamate injury, Tommy John surgery and then another elbow surgery in 2019, but he’s still only 25. Huge power bat, cannon of an arm, lots of Ks but had a great spring (.429/.500/.810). Far more to salvage there than Upton or Refsnyder as a platoon with JBJ, I’d say.
View: https://twitter.com/tripleajeff/status/1441523977273233412?s=21&t=IJIrQNRn8Lxv0qjNncRIdA
I guess that would make sense if you wanted to swap Franchy Cordero for his right handed equivalent.
Sounds good to me. Franchy is crushing the ball, and the sooner he gets promoted again the better. Makes a lot more sense than wasting a roster spot on Ryan Fitzgerald, which some people apparently think is a good idea.
Do we have any reason to believe that Franchy will work out this time? He hit just as badly when he was called up in July last year after hitting really well in Worcester
Yeah, you really have to pick your spots with mega deals. If you're where Devers is on the defensive spectrum, the offensive bar is higher than Devers' best season to date. I would not give him, say, the Corey Seager deal (325/10).
To be fair, you've always been a bit. . .optimistic about Cordero's ability to consistently hit a baseball. From May 24 of last year:
It’s no guarantee, but I think so, yes. His first stint with the Sox fell entirely in the window (4/1-6/21) of pitchers using sticky stuff to get enhanced movement. The second stint was 32 PAs.
True. I think it’s irritating whenever half the fanbase writes off a free swinging power hitter with a funny name, as they did as soon as we acquired him, yet shows endless patience for guys with similar hitting profiles like Dalbec, Duran, Chavis or even Travis Shaw (who I’m stunned is still in the league, let alone on our team).
Cordero hits the ball exceptionally hard and he’s a hair behind Duran as the fastest player on the team. My enthusiasm about him is mostly due to his elite exit velocity and fly ball distances (as I remember us discussing last summer), which are strong indicators for success. He got a late start last year after injuries, but he’s an exciting player and seems like a pitch recognition tweak away. The upside is far greater than a guy with an opposite profile, one who makes a lot of contact but rarely hits the ball hard.
I don’t think he’s a lock to make it, but the pessimism — and like, contempt — for him on this board is way overblown. He seems like a guy we should be rooting for, and the sort that other smart teams find all the time.
Maybe, but Franchy yesterday had a single, two 400 foot outs, and a HR for Worcester.
I think how you feel about Cordero (I'm in favor, and would like to see him get a real chance this year) is downstream from how you feel about minor league stats in general. I looked at his improving strike zone control in AAA (and .930ish OPS!) and see a guy with a chance to be a useful corner outfielder with a .240/.300/.500 type line.
If we manage to claim Adolfo and pair him with Franchy, we might have better outside linebackers than the Pats.
I also don’t recall much patience for Chavis or Duran, at all. A little more for Dalbec, but only because he hurt he cover off the ball to end 2020.
I’m not sure what’s confusing.
Chavis received 622 PAs. Bloom didn’t give Duran a lot of leash last summer, thankfully, but many posters on this board had convinced themselves he was suddenly a top prospect in baseball and untouchable in deadline deals. Which is silly now that he looks like he could be the second coming of Adam Stern.
You were referring to patience among the fan base, I thought. I don’t recall anyone thinking Chavis was untouchable, I thought most hated him here pretty quickly.
But, Chavis did play well right off the bat which got more at bats. Franchy looked completely lost from the get to, in every facet of the game. He will probably get one more shot, but that’s probably it.
That he’s not on the roster despite the glaring need for a lefty mashing OF is interesting.
But, Chavis did play well right off the bat which got more at bats. Franchy looked completely lost from the get to, in every facet of the game. He will probably get one more shot, but that’s probably it.
That he’s not on the roster despite the glaring need for a lefty mashing OF is interesting.
The clear inference is that myself and half the board are racists.
I just wanted to make sure that's what you actually meant to imply.
Nope. Not what I said. I said there was a major difference in how the fan base has received Franchy Cordero vs. recent players with similar high-K% profiles like Dalbec, Chavis, Duran and Shaw.
No one asked my opinion, and neither of you needs me to speak for you, but you are two of our top-tier posters here and I'd hate to see this one boil over.
I also read Chawson as saying that there are fans out there who will sometimes exhibit more patience with white players as they develop than they do with players of color--and I think he's absolutely correct. I don't think it's half the fan base, and I suspect that Chawson was exaggerating for effect. I also think that RR is absolutely *not* such a fan (judging by his comments in other threads, he may well agree with Chawson's original assessment), and that he comes by his criticisms of Franchy out of genuine dislike of his game, and of Bloom's patience with him. Like Chawson, I remain optimistic about Franchy, but I will admit that RR was largely correct about him last season. Again, no one needs me to speak for them, but I think this is an honest disagreement about a player.
Sox, Xander, no dice on a long term deal.
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1512140698170056710
I am of the thought that the Sox will eventually sign some long term deals (bigger than the Story contract), but the defensive issues mean they won't do so with Xander or Devers unless the terms are very team friendly. We will see.
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1512140698170056710
I am of the thought that the Sox will eventually sign some long term deals (bigger than the Story contract), but the defensive issues mean they won't do so with Xander or Devers unless the terms are very team friendly. We will see.
As has been pointed out, Chavis got off to a hot start which gave him a bit of a leash with the fan base. People round here were champing at the bit to be rid of him by the end, and moaning every time he was recalled.
Admittedly I've never been on the Duran bandwagon, but he was showing pop (and speed) in Worcester and the team seemed in need of an outfielder after Franchy and Gonzalez flopped to start the year (and Kike was floating between 2B and CF), so he got a bit of an inflated expectation attached to him. He's gotten all of 112 MLB PAs so it's not like he's been given too much of a leash.
As for Dalbec, the guy has a career OPS+ of 105 in his limited career so far (Franchy = 78). Similar K profile or not, he's just been more productive than Franchy at the big league level. 35% K rate is acceptable if the guy is slugging nearly .500 for the year. Not so much when the player's OPS is under .500.
Shaw is whatever, but he's a veteran who's done it at the big league level and provides solid, competent, experienced defense at 1B and 3B. Which fits what the current roster needs more than Franchy does.
Do you think the difference is lost on me? Why don’t you ask the poster who brought up Cordero what’s so strikingly similar that he needed be invoked in reply to a post about Micker Adolfo.
Thank you, yes.
Then have the fucking balls to say it outright, if that's what you believe. No reason to couch it with coded remarks