Red Sox in season discussion
- Thread starter Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat
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Or the opposite of that.
View: https://twitter.com/chadjennings22/status/1511001236170055692?s=21&t=tF_VH8cZxRP4V3AJp0LOhg
View: https://twitter.com/chadjennings22/status/1511001236170055692?s=21&t=tF_VH8cZxRP4V3AJp0LOhg
FWIW this guy seems like some rando internet guy with a twitter account.
I would not be surprised by Refsnyder making the roster (I was saying that a week ago) but also not surprised that there's a 40-man crunch to get guys like him on. I was looking at the 40-man yesterday when DOB and Mazz were talking about Shaw making the team, trying to figure out who was getting bounced. The only obvious thing to me was putting Sale on the 60-day to make a spot, unless they haven't gotten too attached to Ralph Garza. Adding Shaw and Refsnyder and possibly a pitcher (seems unlikely until Robles is ready) would be complicated unless there's a trade in the offing.
He won't be because Jonathan Arauz is making the roster. And like it or not, JD Martinez is going to play the outfield.
He's not yet been officially sent down but he's also not currently on the 40-man, so he'd require a corresponding move to make the club, same as Refsnyder.
The 60 day clock doesn’t start until Opening Day, I doubt they’ll want to lock Sale into being out that long.
I still don’t buy it. Why go out and get a defensive upgrade for the toughest right field in MLB and then stick one of baseball’s worst fielders there for one-third of the games?
Arroyo is notoriously brittle, JDM is too important to the offense to get hurt, and DHing Bogaerts/Story/Devers means there’s no good way to pinch hit for Arroyo against RHP. The calculation would be this:
• Upgrade: swap JBJ’s bat vs. LHP with Arroyo’s
• Upgrade: Bogaerts at SS —> Story at SS
• Even: Story at 2B —> Arroyo at 2B
• Downgrade: JBJ in RF —> Verdugo in RF
• Downgrade: Verdugo in LF —> JDM in LF
• Downgrade: DHing Bogaerts means your pinch hitting options for Arroyo vs. RHP are JBJ and Arauz, which is bad
• Downgrade: Major injury risk to JDM
Who cares if he can’t hit righties? That’s not the role he’d be used for. They need someone who can hit lefties better than Bradley. Perhaps Upton isn’t that guy, he’s probably a better bet than Refsnyder. Although I’m warming up to the idea that Franchy should just get the job.
(Oops, missed the replies. But seems fairly likely to me that Franchy is making the team if Refsnyder isn’t).
(Oops, missed the replies. But seems fairly likely to me that Franchy is making the team if Refsnyder isn’t).
I think the clock can start today if they want it to, but three days wouldn't make a ton of difference anyway. I don't see Sale being back before Memorial Day since he's more or less starting from scratch once he starts throwing again. Putting him on the 60-day IL today would mean June 3rd is the earliest he could be activated. Seems consistent to me. But really, it was just one possible idea for making a roster spot. DFAing Garza or someone else is more likely.
Arroyo clearly has more upside and is going to be 27. Upton is going to be 34, and hasn't been good in 3 years.
That said, Arroyo isn't an outfielder, and had multiple trips to the injured list last year.
Not sure why it's even a matter of Arroyo vs Upton. I think they can co-exist on the roster if need be. Arauz would be the odd man out if the Sox managed to sign Upton. An Upton/Arroyo/Shaw/Plawecki bench is an upgrade, at least offensively (probably neutral defensively), over Arauz/Arroyo/Shaw/Plawecki.
I'm not going to shed a tear if they don't get Upton, but I really don't see much of a downside if they go that way. There's zero risk to giving him a shot.
I'm not going to shed a tear if they don't get Upton, but I really don't see much of a downside if they go that way. There's zero risk to giving him a shot.
So it seems like we're not getting extensions for Bogey or Devers before the season starts.
Reports say there is a huge gap between Devers and the team on his extension.
They're gonna Mookie this one too.
Reports say there is a huge gap between Devers and the team on his extension.
They're gonna Mookie this one too.
Again I ask 'Are you ready to move Marcelo Mayer for Reynolds?' because I think that is what it would take.
I understand the price will be steep and am ok with it. They are exercising restraint on the mega deals so I prefer the trade route with established offensive players. There is no risk involved with Brian Reynolds with his skill set. He's good at everything.
As inept as they may seem as an organization, the Pirates understand this and my guess is that the conversation would begin with Mayer. How much more would you be willing to offer?
What am I missing on BrYan Reynolds?
He definitely seems like a very good switch hitter (2020 notwithstanding) but he seems to have only average athleticism & a below average arm. Doesn't seem like a guy I would want to go all in for & definitely not someone I would want to give up Mayer's upside for.
He definitely seems like a very good switch hitter (2020 notwithstanding) but he seems to have only average athleticism & a below average arm. Doesn't seem like a guy I would want to go all in for & definitely not someone I would want to give up Mayer's upside for.
It can start with Meyer but that doesn't mean he has to be involved. Reportedly the Pirates asked the Marlins for Kahlil Watson (MLB #25) and Max Meyer (MLB#35) and were shot down. https://awaybackgone.com/2022/04/02/cleveland-guardians-holding-out-hope-for-a-bryan-reynolds-trade/
For the trade simulator people, that shows as one-sided in the Marlins favor, so playing around with that stuff seems silly.
Maybe it's something like Yorke, Durran and Mata or substitute Mata with a lesser guy and add Dalbec. I have no idea, because I don't know how motivated the Pirates are.
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BTV has that combo still way short, Reynolds is 85 value and those three are 58.3 combined. Mayer, Duran and Bello would get you pretty close.
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
I'm with you. He's a good ballplayer but not really a guy you give up your best chips for. Everyone is fascinated by his four remaining years of team control and his relatively low salary, but those two things are exactly why the Pirates are in no rush whatsoever to give him up. They're not going to settle for less just because we say "pretty please".
Reynolds is a pipe dream. It doesn’t make sense to give up that kind of prospect capital for an all-bat 6-win center fielder (per bWAR, prorated over a full season) when the Sox already have a much more dynamic one in Kiké, who they should just extend.
As good as Reynolds’s bat is, he’s not an especially good defender at 27, which means he’d probably be best suited for LF for us long-term. Finding a great hitting left fielder in Fenway is not especially hard, and we already have a very good and cheap one.
But I am surprised that our offseason was so quiet. We seem to have a lot less of the depth we did last year, and I wish they’d done more this offseason to help future teams. What happened to the groundwork for future trades that Bloom laid down last summer? Was that just about the Renfroe/JBJ swap? Was Bloom’s interest in acquiring a catcher limited to Jacob Stallings only? Is Travis Shaw really going to collect at-bats on the 2022 Red Sox?
The Padres still have major logjams at catcher (Nola, Campusano, Caratini, Alfaro), in the rotation (Paddack) and payroll (Myers, Hosmer). The A’s presumably still want to move Montas, and likely their other expensive contracts too (Andrus, Pinder, Piscotty, Trivino). The Mets have been dangling Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis. The Reds still have a lot of pieces to sell off. I can’t see Miami hanging on to Garrett Cooper. The Royals have a weird cluster after promoting Bobby Witt Jr.
As good as Reynolds’s bat is, he’s not an especially good defender at 27, which means he’d probably be best suited for LF for us long-term. Finding a great hitting left fielder in Fenway is not especially hard, and we already have a very good and cheap one.
But I am surprised that our offseason was so quiet. We seem to have a lot less of the depth we did last year, and I wish they’d done more this offseason to help future teams. What happened to the groundwork for future trades that Bloom laid down last summer? Was that just about the Renfroe/JBJ swap? Was Bloom’s interest in acquiring a catcher limited to Jacob Stallings only? Is Travis Shaw really going to collect at-bats on the 2022 Red Sox?
The Padres still have major logjams at catcher (Nola, Campusano, Caratini, Alfaro), in the rotation (Paddack) and payroll (Myers, Hosmer). The A’s presumably still want to move Montas, and likely their other expensive contracts too (Andrus, Pinder, Piscotty, Trivino). The Mets have been dangling Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis. The Reds still have a lot of pieces to sell off. I can’t see Miami hanging on to Garrett Cooper. The Royals have a weird cluster after promoting Bobby Witt Jr.
X shouldn't be playing shortstop now. On the roster/off the roster 3-4 years from now when Mayer is ready, Bogaerts is almost certainly not going to be our incumbent shortstop.
The Rangers have released Jake Marisnick. Would he be a better/ different option than Upton? Certainly better defensively, but he hits as badly as JBJ, just from the right side.
It makes some sense, though I’d probably prefer to see if Refsnyder’s improvements are real. Marisnick is a pretty rough hitter, and his good years are marred by the can-banging. Cora would have a good sense.
Of course, unless it’s a minor league deal, adding Upton or Marisnick means DFAing someone off the 40-man. Maybe Ralph Garza Jr. is likelier to slip through waivers this close to the regular season?
Shaw and Robles still need to be added as well, so I imagine Garza's already on the chopping block. Maybe DFAing a few players all at once will increase the odds of someone slipping through to an outright assignment?
Ramirez signs what seems like a very reasonable extension. Curious how this affects X and Devers.
View: https://twitter.com/jeffpassan/status/1511695511954284553?s=21&t=eKdMwLdrpDeakNbpaO1bNA
View: https://twitter.com/jeffpassan/status/1511695511954284553?s=21&t=eKdMwLdrpDeakNbpaO1bNA
Opening day Vs Yankees pushed back a day due to weather, it is now Friday at 1:05 pm
View: https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/1511702994508828679?s=20&t=Efl42g7O7eE71Cr3Clu-AQ
Edit: missed the notice in the Spring Training thread.
View: https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/1511702994508828679?s=20&t=Efl42g7O7eE71Cr3Clu-AQ
Edit: missed the notice in the Spring Training thread.
I personally just can't quit Arroyo. I think there's some chance he could become a passable outfielder, which would certainly make him more valuable. But it's true, the guy is constantly hurt. But I just can't quit him.
Arroyo is fine as a utility infielder, but he’s a career 235/298/391 guy with no split. It shouldn’t be difficult to find an actual OF who can provide more offense than that. I’m surprised they are keeping Arroyo and Arauz; seems like Cordero could offer more than Arauz, but Franchy isn’t on the 40-man. The only available OF on the 40-man is Duran, who isn’t an option on a team starting Verdugo and Bradley. Heck, the only backup IF not on the active roster is Downs. I think the 40-man could be a problem again this year, there’s too many pitchers and perhaps one too many catcher on it IMO.
Are there any wrinkles in the new agreement that would impact how the Sox are likely to use the 40-man?
Is he actually constantly hurt, or was he just snakebit last year? His 57 games last year was a career high, but are his lower totals with SF/Tampa/Cleveland also injury related or was he just a shuttle guy?
Only 16 position players and 24 pitchers.
As you say, our optionable depth on the 40-man consists of: Duran, Downs, Wong, and Ronaldo Hernandez: an outfielder, a middle infielder, a catcher/IF, and a catcher. I suspect they will find a way to get Ryan Fitzgerald on there at some point for more depth, or Triston Casas if there are injuries.
I wonder if we'll get a little more clarity on some of this when the rosters contract in a month, and we likely outright or lose a few relievers.
thebaseballcube.com lists IL trips and optional/rehab assignments under transactions. For example, Arroyo's transaction page.
I think this is a good comp for extending Xander, in terms of AAV. Ramirez is getting his option picked up for $14m for 23, and then 5/124. I think 6/150 for Xander would be fair based on this.