Red Sox in season discussion

[Rovin Romine]

This is a time-consuming thing to research but yeah, I think the Bloom-era Sox are beginning to join other smart teams in staffing more multi-inning instead of single-inning relievers. It seems like a strategy that went into overdrive since the three-batter rule, which disincentivizes specialists.

There are a few ways to do it. The Astros seemed to fashion/revive the multi-inning relief ace a few years ago with Devenski, and now have Javier, Raley and Abreu. The Rays of course developed the opener/bulk inning method and have a slew of arms that can go multiple innings. The Yankees of course have deployed these kinds of guys to great effect lately (King, Loiasiga, Green, Luetge to some extent).

It's also caught on in Baltimore, where former Astros pitching coaches have moved, and has been a big part of the reason why that team has outperformed expectations. Keegan Akin, Dillon Tate and Bryan Baker have all been used as multi-inning guys and have been terrific.

To be clear, I don't think the Sox have their version firing on all cylinders yet. Whitlock, Houck, Sawamura, Strahm, Danish and Davis have all been used this way at varying times (strategically, not in mop-up duty like Valdez), and the road is littered with failed attempts (Andriese, Springs, Richards). Mata, Ward, Seabold, Winckowski, Darwinzon Hernandez and Crawford might all be deployed that way in the next couple years.

One of the virtues of having a bullpen of MIRPs is that it leaves you less vulnerable to starting pitcher injury. Teams with bullpens full of one-inning guys have to scramble pretty hard to fill rotation slots lost to injury, and that can really mess up a 40-man.

Numbers say nope.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2022-reliever-pitching.shtml

AL Pitcher appearances in which the pitcher pitched more than one inning.

123 BAL
100 MIN
96 TBR
93 LAA
90 OAK
87 BOS
87 TEX
86 KCR
84 NYY
83 TOR
League Average 83
78 CWS
69 DET
63 CLE
51 HOU
48 SEA

Compared to AL pitcher appearances where the pitcher recorded less than three outs (and therefore went less than one inning.

103 OAK
97 KCR
96 BOS
85 TOR
79 BAL
71 TBR
League Average 71
76 LAA
64 CWS
63 TEX
61 SEA
60 NYY
59 CLE
53 DET
53 HOU
51 MIN

 

[chawson]

Numbers say nope.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2022-reliever-pitching.shtml

AL Pitcher appearances in which the pitcher pitched more than one inning.

123 BAL
100 MIN
96 TBR
93 LAA
90 OAK
87 BOS
87 TEX
86 KCR
84 NYY
83 TOR
League Average 83
78 CWS
69 DET
63 CLE
51 HOU
48 SEA

Compared to AL pitcher appearances where the pitcher recorded less than three outs (and therefore went less than one inning.

103 OAK
97 KCR
96 BOS
85 TOR
79 BAL
71 TBR
League Average 71
76 LAA
64 CWS
63 TEX
61 SEA
60 NYY
59 CLE
53 DET
53 HOU
51 MIN

Nope to what?

 

[stephen greene]

I am getting tired of the Chaim bashing, here and on WEEI, to be honest. Everyone is free to have their own opinion, and I'm not necessarily even saying that I'm right. But it seems to me that this is what's been happening.

1. The Sox won the WS with Dombrowski going all-in in 2018. It was amazing. Best year in Sox history, by a mile. Legendary team, ultimate outcome. Perfect. Then he re-signed Eovaldi and extended Sale, putting the Sox into a bit of a financial bind.

2. The Sox tank badly in 2019 and Dombrowski got canned. In comes Chaim. The farm system had been gutted in order to win the WS. Fine, I approve. But moving forward, the team needed a lot more ammo. 2018 was now gone and it was time to move to the next Sox championship team. They still had lots of good pieces but there were problems. One issue was Mookie's pending free agent status, which has been talked about ad nauseam here. I won't re-litigate it other than to say that the Sox believed they couldn't sign him for anything less than full market value. Nobody could foresee Covid and its impact on baseball and on Mookie's situation, so the Sox, not wanting to be hamstrung, traded him. Booooo. Nobody liked that but some people understood it. Tough for Chaim, to have been the one to pull the trigger on that.

3. 2020 is a disaster, thanks to Covid. Adding to it is that LA wins the WS with Mookie playing great. Ugh for Sox' fans. But Chaim begins the process of revamping the team. A HUGE part of that is rebuilding the decimated farm system. And that work begins in earnest. 2020 is a terrible season but the process has begun.

4. A ton of moves later, and the Sox are in 2021 and doing pretty well. Managing to be competitive during the season despite the rebuild. It goes well at times, not well at others. But at the end of the season, they make the playoffs while managing to SIGNIFICANTLY upgrade the minor league system, restocking it with a bunch of high level prospects. In the playoffs, they knock off the Yankees (A+), then knock off the Rays (A+), then take a 2 games to 1 lead on Houston in the ALCS, coming within 2 innings of going up 3-1 before the wheels come off and they lose. Still....an amazing run to what can only be described as an incredibly successful season. Making the ALCS while removing the financial shackles they were in AND massively improving the farm system all at the same time.

5. Going into 2022, I believe they hoped that Sale and Paxton would be back by now. They didn't foresee the terrible start they'd have, when at times there was like one or two guys only doing any hitting at all. I think they thought that Casas might make it to the big club in the second half of the year fully ready for the majors, so they only needed a decent half-year from Dalbec. But Bobby has been a disaster. They signed Story to a big contract (so yeah they DO spend money) to play 2b, and he got off to a terrible start too. But the team bounced back and at one point was in 2nd place with the 3rd best record in the division. Then guys got hurt and they went into this crazy tough part of the schedule with just one of their best starters (Pivetta) even available. Meanwhile, they started to add minor leaguers to the majors club and that's been met with some success with some, but not with others (as we might expect). But despite all their tribulations this year, they're still currently tied for the last WC spot, they have a ton of studs in the minor league system, and a bunch of their AAA guys have gotten valuable major league experience.

I mean, overall, I'd say that Chaim has done a hell of a job. OBVIOUSLY he has made some mistakes. No GM is going to get every move right, not even Cashman. But he's overhauled the entire system, bringing in tons of young talent, and he's done so while keeping the major league club competitive. But this year, even if they played great, they'd still be getting killed by the Yankees, given their historic season so far. So all it is about is making the wild card somehow, which right now they're very much in the mix for.

I have seen this mentioned many times and genuinely curious as to what players of any significance that would be contributing to the team now had they not been "gutted".

nice summary.

 

[joe dokes]

I am getting tired of the Chaim bashing, here and on WEEI, to be honest. Everyone is free to have their own opinion, and I'm not necessarily even saying that I'm right. But it seems to me that this is what's been happening.

1. The Sox won the WS with Dombrowski going all-in in 2018. It was amazing. Best year in Sox history, by a mile. Legendary team, ultimate outcome. Perfect. Then he re-signed Eovaldi and extended Sale, putting the Sox into a bit of a financial bind.

2. The Sox tank badly in 2019 and Dombrowski got canned. In comes Chaim. The farm system had been gutted in order to win the WS. Fine, I approve. But moving forward, the team needed a lot more ammo. 2018 was now gone and it was time to move to the next Sox championship team. They still had lots of good pieces but there were problems. One issue was Mookie's pending free agent status, which has been talked about ad nauseam here. I won't re-litigate it other than to say that the Sox believed they couldn't sign him for anything less than full market value. Nobody could foresee Covid and its impact on baseball and on Mookie's situation, so the Sox, not wanting to be hamstrung, traded him. Booooo. Nobody liked that but some people understood it. Tough for Chaim, to have been the one to pull the trigger on that.

3. 2020 is a disaster, thanks to Covid. Adding to it is that LA wins the WS with Mookie playing great. Ugh for Sox' fans. But Chaim begins the process of revamping the team. A HUGE part of that is rebuilding the decimated farm system. And that work begins in earnest. 2020 is a terrible season but the process has begun.

4. A ton of moves later, and the Sox are in 2021 and doing pretty well. Managing to be competitive during the season despite the rebuild. It goes well at times, not well at others. But at the end of the season, they make the playoffs while managing to SIGNIFICANTLY upgrade the minor league system, restocking it with a bunch of high level prospects. In the playoffs, they knock off the Yankees (A+), then knock off the Rays (A+), then take a 2 games to 1 lead on Houston in the ALCS, coming within 2 innings of going up 3-1 before the wheels come off and they lose. Still....an amazing run to what can only be described as an incredibly successful season. Making the ALCS while removing the financial shackles they were in AND massively improving the farm system all at the same time.

5. Going into 2022, I believe they hoped that Sale and Paxton would be back by now. They didn't foresee the terrible start they'd have, when at times there was like one or two guys only doing any hitting at all. I think they thought that Casas might make it to the big club in the second half of the year fully ready for the majors, so they only needed a decent half-year from Dalbec. But Bobby has been a disaster. They signed Story to a big contract (so yeah they DO spend money) to play 2b, and he got off to a terrible start too. But the team bounced back and at one point was in 2nd place with the 3rd best record in the division. Then guys got hurt and they went into this crazy tough part of the schedule with just one of their best starters (Pivetta) even available. Meanwhile, they started to add minor leaguers to the majors club and that's been met with some success with some, but not with others (as we might expect). But despite all their tribulations this year, they're still currently tied for the last WC spot, they have a ton of studs in the minor league system, and a bunch of their AAA guys have gotten valuable major league experience.

I mean, overall, I'd say that Chaim has done a hell of a job. OBVIOUSLY he has made some mistakes. No GM is going to get every move right, not even Cashman. But he's overhauled the entire system, bringing in tons of young talent, and he's done so while keeping the major league club competitive. But this year, even if they played great, they'd still be getting killed by the Yankees, given their historic season so far. So all it is about is making the wild card somehow, which right now they're very much in the mix for.

Gonna have to call my doctor in 4 hours.

 

[BaseballJones]

I have seen this mentioned many times and genuinely curious as to what players of any significance that would be contributing to the team now had they not been "gutted".

nice summary.

Good question. I'm not positive. But that misses the point. The point is that when they're still prospects, they have value based on the *potential* of being really good. That's why teams trade established stars for prospects. Once those prospects become MLB players and bad ones, of course they lose value. But when they're prospects, you don't know that they're going to be bad.

For example, right now, a guy like Mayer has a ton of value to the Red Sox' organization. We have NO clue whether he'll actually be a really good or really bad MLB player, if he'll get hurt and never play in the bigs, or become a hall of famer. But a lot of teams would give a lot of capital to acquire him from Boston, thus he has a lot of value to the Sox' organization.

That said, here's a summary of his deals: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/04/revisiting-dave-dombrowskis-red-sox-trades.html

Some good names on that list.

- Yoan Moncada - hit .315 with 25 homers for Chicago in 2019 as a 24-year old.
- Michael Kopech - 3.50 era in 2021, 3.35 era in 2022 for the White Sox
- Jalen Beeks - has been awesome for Tampa this year: 2.48 era, 1.18 whip, 11.0 k/9 in their bullpen
- Ty Buttrey - isn't in baseball now but in 2019 and 2020 he had a 3.31 and 3.98 era for the Angels
- Manuel Margot - presently hitting .302 (132 ops+) for the Rays, and had 2.8 bWAR last year for them - would be far better than JBJ

But the fact that he traded some players who have done well and conceivably could be a big help to the present-day Red Sox (while others have done nothing) isn't even the point. Those guys were dealt for help at the time (Moncada and Kopech got Sale, and Beeks got Eovaldi, and both Sale and Eovaldi were HUGE in the 2018 championship season) and it was great. The point is just that he really dealt away a TON from the farm system, including the vast majority of their top prospects. And Chaim had to restock the organization with talent. And he's done just that.

 

[grimshaw]

And that's part of my point about doing a bit of a deeper dive before posting. Player A may be playing a certain position because player B has been dealing with something personal or physical. A reliever might be held from what seems to an obviously needed BP appearance because the status of a starter 2 days from now is unknown. A rift in the clubhouse might affect a decision and most managers are going to try to keep that in house. And again I'll point to the fact that other mods will caution that there are things that we may be unaware of and IMO it's not always used as a means to shut things down, but rather an attempt to improve the quality of some of the content here.

Ya and the same applies to Bloom as well. I am 95% on board with what it is he has done since being here. I trust his long term plan and the fact that he competed last year and this while rebuilding is amazing in this division. But it's fair to question the results from sticking with replacement level production in RF and 1b with the 40 man bursting at the seams.

Was Franchy plan B at1b moving into the season for instance?

Edit: I guess that would have been Travis Shaw.

 

[YTF]

Gonna have to call my doctor in 4 hours.

I've always been curious as to exactly what the doctor would do in that circumstance.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I guess it’s all about perspective; the 2019 Sox were seen as a team that tanked and was a disaster, yet they won 84 games- the same number the 2022 Sox are on pace to win. It’s great that the Sox have a better farm system than then, but i think one could argue that the major league talent is worse; and could be much worse in a year.

And who knows with the farm - the #5 farm system in ‘19 was the Diamondbacks- led by Alek Thomas, Kristian Robinson, Corbin Carroll, and Seth Beer. Will we have patience with the kids? A lot of people seem ready to ride Houck out of town, and many have already soured on Duran.

What’s the core of that next great Red Sox team. How many of those players are even on the roster right now? Story, Houck, Whitlock, Sale? Bloom has certainly done a solid job but he inherited some great players, most of whom are not under team control much longer. What do the 2024 Sox look like- how do they get better each year?

 

[joe dokes]

I've always been curious as to exactly what the doctor would do in that circumstance.

There's probably a thread around here somewhere.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I have seen this mentioned many times and genuinely curious as to what players of any significance that would be contributing to the team now had they not been "gutted".

nice summary.

"Gutted" doesn't just mean who was traded away. It also includes the lack of replenishing of the farm during the Dombrowski years.

The top 6 of the Dombrowski draft years in terms of WAR so far:

Santiago Espinal 4.7 (all with Toronto)
Tanner Houck 4.0
Trevor Stephan 1.0 (all with Cleveland) *went unsigned by the Sox
Kutter Crawford 0.3
Bobby Dalbec -0.2
Jarren Duran -0.5

Some of that could be that the Sox finished 1st and drafted in the bottom half for three of his four drafts. Some of it was bad luck with guys like Groome and Casas being delayed by injuries. Bottom line is that the pipeline was a bit dry in the few years following the all-in plunge that resulted in the 2018 title.

 

[YTF]

There's probably a thread around here somewhere.

Ask an orthopenis surgeon?

 

[joe dokes]

What’s the core of that next great Red Sox team. How many of those players are even on the roster right now? Story, Houck, Whitlock, Sale? Bloom has certainly done a solid job but he inherited some great players, most of whom are not under team control much longer. What do the 2024 Sox look like- how do they get better each year?

I'm not going into the wayback machine right now, but I think it would be a really interesting exercise to see if we could answer that question w/r/t the other WS winners a year or 2 or 3 before they happened. And see what we saw with the benefit of hindsight. 2001-2--Pedro, Nixon, Varitek, (I'm sure there are others, but you get the point).
Ortiz? Millar? Nomar?

 

[scottyno]

What’s the core of that next great Red Sox team. How many of those players are even on the roster right now? Story, Houck, Whitlock, Sale? Bloom has certainly done a solid job but he inherited some great players, most of whom are not under team control much longer. What do the 2024 Sox look like- how do they get better each year?

They have over 100m coming off the books after this season. Some of it will almost certainly be used to bring back some of the current free agents, but they're going to have a lot of money to spend to help them replace the guys they're losing.

 

[cfmoran13]

Their main problem is depth. They have none. If anyone at virtually any position goes down, they have no backup plan. if Vasquez goes down, they have Plawecki (ugh!). If Franchy goes down at first base (already brutal), they have Dalbec. Up until Jeter Downs' call-up, if Devers went down, Dalbec was the back up. If anyone in the rotation goes down (as they all have), they need to call AAA. And, the bullpen has 2-3 reliable guys with no true closer.

Support Bloom or don't. But, this team was sketchy from the beginning. They were bad at the beginning when they faced good teams. They thrived when they played mediocre teams in the middle. And, now, they're getting beaten every night by AL East teams. Pretty soon, the O's are gonna be neck and neck with us. They can't look at the people coming off the IL as acquisitions. Moves still need to be made.

 

[Ganthem]

Their main problem is depth. They have none. If anyone at virtually any position goes down, they have no backup plan. if Vasquez goes down, they have Plawecki (ugh!). If Franchy goes down at first base (already brutal), they have Dalbec. Up until Jeter Downs' call-up, if Devers went down, Dalbec was the back up. If anyone in the rotation goes down (as they all have), they need to call AAA. And, the bullpen has 2-3 reliable guys with no true closer.

Support Bloom or don't. But, this team was sketchy from the beginning. They were bad at the beginning when they faced good teams. They thrived when they played mediocre teams in the middle. And, now, they're getting beaten every night by AL East teams. Pretty soon, the O's are gonna be neck and neck with us. They can't look at the people coming off the IL as acquisitions. Moves still need to be made.

Before the season started if Dalbec went down or sucked they had Casas. If any of the outfielders went down they had Duran. For the rotation they had Wacha and Hill and a bunch of interesting pitchers in the minor. In addition Bloom made signings such as Refsnyder which so far works out. Unless there is a a promising prospect in the minors depth is typically players like Refsnyder or Schrieber signed to minor league deals. Depth was not one of the problems this team was looking at when the season started.

 

[Ganthem]

They have over 100m coming off the books after this season. Some of it will almost certainly be used to bring back some of the current free agents, but they're going to have a lot of money to spend to help them replace the guys they're losing.

They also have a beefed up farm system and some of those prospects can be spun into major league players.

 

[scottyno]

Their main problem is depth. They have none. If anyone at virtually any position goes down, they have no backup plan. if Vasquez goes down, they have Plawecki (ugh!). If Franchy goes down at first base (already brutal), they have Dalbec. Up until Jeter Downs' call-up, if Devers went down, Dalbec was the back up. If anyone in the rotation goes down (as they all have), they need to call AAA. And, the bullpen has 2-3 reliable guys with no true closer.

Support Bloom or don't. But, this team was sketchy from the beginning. They were bad at the beginning when they faced good teams. They thrived when they played mediocre teams in the middle. And, now, they're getting beaten every night by AL East teams. Pretty soon, the O's are gonna be neck and neck with us. They can't look at the people coming off the IL as acquisitions. Moves still need to be made.

Starting pitching depth wasn't a problem at all. It's only become a problem because they're past the point where any team could be expected to have enough depth to cover it. Whitlock, Winckowski, and Crawford have all been perfectly fine and none started in the rotation, you can't expect to have better depth than that.

They also have a beefed up farm system and some of those prospects can be spun into major league players.

Or can be used to replace guys on the current roster at a fraction of the price. The rotation could easily have 2-3 minimum salary guys, Duran replaces Bradley, Wong maybe is the backup catcher. Lots of cheap guys that could potentially play useful roles next year.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Their main problem is depth. They have none. If anyone at virtually any position goes down, they have no backup plan. if Vasquez goes down, they have Plawecki (ugh!). If Franchy goes down at first base (already brutal), they have Dalbec. Up until Jeter Downs' call-up, if Devers went down, Dalbec was the back up. If anyone in the rotation goes down (as they all have), they need to call AAA. And, the bullpen has 2-3 reliable guys with no true closer.

Support Bloom or don't. But, this team was sketchy from the beginning. They were bad at the beginning when they faced good teams. They thrived when they played mediocre teams in the middle. And, now, they're getting beaten every night by AL East teams. Pretty soon, the O's are gonna be neck and neck with us. They can't look at the people coming off the IL as acquisitions. Moves still need to be made.

There isn't a team in baseball that doesn't "call AAA" if one of their starters goes down. That's what the minor leagues are for. You generally don't keep extra starting pitchers in the big league bullpen, or at least not more than one.To expect the Red Sox (or any team) to have true major league starters available as the #7, 8, and 9 options for the rotation is unrealistic. And no team is going to have a good answer if they're down to #10 or 11 on the depth chart (which is what Seabold and Bello are).

That's less true for position players, but you're still not going to have a perfect replacement for every player on the field should they get hurt for an extended period. I won't argue that the Sox could use a couple more position players on the 40-man roster, but it's not as though they're that much different from other teams in terms of the dip in quality they have going from starter to back-up to AAA-call-up at various positions. They haven't had less than two position players on the IL in quite a while. Kike's absence hurts depth. Arroyo's absences hurt depth.

We can quibble about whether or not the team was well constructed or had enough depth when the season began, but they were projected to win somewhere in the mid-80s, and that's exactly the pace they're on. If that's "sketchy" so be it. I'd still rather watch/root for them then the fucking Royals.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Their main problem is depth. They have none. If anyone at virtually any position goes down, they have no backup plan. if Vasquez goes down, they have Plawecki (ugh!). If Franchy goes down at first base (already brutal), they have Dalbec. Up until Jeter Downs' call-up, if Devers went down, Dalbec was the back up. If anyone in the rotation goes down (as they all have), they need to call AAA. And, the bullpen has 2-3 reliable guys with no true closer.

Support Bloom or don't. But, this team was sketchy from the beginning. They were bad at the beginning when they faced good teams. They thrived when they played mediocre teams in the middle. And, now, they're getting beaten every night by AL East teams. Pretty soon, the O's are gonna be neck and neck with us. They can't look at the people coming off the IL as acquisitions. Moves still need to be made.

Clearly you're new in following the game of baseball. Welcome!

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I have certainly argued about the lack of depth at 1b and OF- but the primary culprit has been lousy play and then the injury to Hernandez. If he’d have been healthy and productive, Refsnyder would have replaced Bradley by now, and I imagiine they’d have been more aggressive in doing something about Dalbec (Casas would be here if not hurt). For the pen, it’s a bit of everything, but largely the injury to Barnes who was hoped (perhaps irrationally) to be their top RH reliever. The 40-man issues are real too; they don’t have much flexibility.

That being said, they seem way too slow IMO to replace Dalbec and Bradley; and I think dumping a Valdez or Wong from the 40 to add more positional depth could help, but there are arguments against that with injured players coming off the 60 day, and I also thought they were too patient with Dalbec last year and it paid off down the stretch.

It seems like they have enough prospects to make a deal that won’t be too painful, and I imagine it will come as we get closer to the deadline. But the losses are piling up, and the race is likely to be close. It feels like improvements at RF and 1B, given how bad those positions have been, shouldn’t be too difficult to pull off, but of course it takes two parties to deal and the market hasn’t really started yet.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Whitlock looked dominant tonight. Up to 96 on his fastball with great breaking stuff. His stuff is just better out of the pen. Keep him where he belongs.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

There’s no way they win that game tonight without Whitlock.

Need a bunch of runs tomorrow with Whitlock and Houck unavailable.

 

[Apisith]

Worried about Eovaldi. His fastball velocity tonight was 2mph below his season average. He’s still not right.

 

[Daniel_Son]

Their main problem is depth. They have none. If anyone at virtually any position goes down, they have no backup plan. if Vasquez goes down, they have Plawecki (ugh!). If Franchy goes down at first base (already brutal), they have Dalbec. Up until Jeter Downs' call-up, if Devers went down, Dalbec was the back up. If anyone in the rotation goes down (as they all have), they need to call AAA. And, the bullpen has 2-3 reliable guys with no true closer.

Support Bloom or don't. But, this team was sketchy from the beginning. They were bad at the beginning when they faced good teams. They thrived when they played mediocre teams in the middle. And, now, they're getting beaten every night by AL East teams. Pretty soon, the O's are gonna be neck and neck with us. They can't look at the people coming off the IL as acquisitions. Moves still need to be made.

They just split a series against the best team in baseball.

 

[streeter88]

They just split a series against the best team in baseball.

You missed a series - they just got swept by the Rays who are only #6 in MLB (or where the Sox were on the 27th June, just before the current slide where they are 5-10 in July after finishing June losing 2/3 to TOR).

Tonight they beat the Yankees in 11. Post is hopeful, but premature.

Edit: 100% support being hopeful by the way; and on the whole I support Bloom - just really don’t think he got it right with this year‘s bullpen, and hope the team can put it together again before the trade deadline. If they somehow win one more vs NYY, then I would be a bit more optimistic.

 

[streeter88]

I am getting tired of the Chaim bashing, here and on WEEI, to be honest. Everyone is free to have their own opinion, and I'm not necessarily even saying that I'm right. But it seems to me that this is what's been happening.

(Cut for reply)

I mean, overall, I'd say that Chaim has done a hell of a job. OBVIOUSLY he has made some mistakes. No GM is going to get every move right, not even Cashman. But he's overhauled the entire system, bringing in tons of young talent, and he's done so while keeping the major league club competitive. But this year, even if they played great, they'd still be getting killed by the Yankees, given their historic season so far. So all it is about is making the wild card somehow, which right now they're very much in the mix for.

This is one of the best posts I’ve read all year, and I’m hoping it’s worthy of being split out into a new thread.

Mods? What do you think? Could we have a thread something like “Bloom (Still) on the Rose?” I would do it but don’t know how to select posts to put into the thread… guidance please?

 

[Daniel_Son]

You missed a series - they just got swept by the Rays who are only #6 in MLB (or where the Sox were on the 27th June, just before the current slide where they are 5-10 in July after finishing June losing 2/3 to TOR).

Tonight they beat the Yankees in 11. Post is hopeful, but premature.

Edit: 100% support being hopeful by the way; and on the whole I support Bloom - just really don’t think he got it right with this year‘s bullpen, and hope the team can put it together again before the trade deadline. If they somehow win one more vs NYY, then I would be a bit more optimistic.

I was referring to last weekend's series, where they went up against the 60-win New York Yankees with a single legitimate starting pitcher and got the split. You're right - they also got swept by Tampa. It happens. I suspect the team's true talent level is somewhere between the two series.

We just got Eovaldi and Whitlock back. We've also got Sale now, who's a damn good pitcher when he's healthy. We should be getting Wacha back after the All Star Break. And despite this week's struggles, we're still right in the playoff picture. Let's give them some time - the season's not even close to over yet.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Whitlock looked dominant tonight. Up to 96 on his fastball with great breaking stuff. His stuff is just better out of the pen. Keep him where he belongs.

It’s nice when they finally listen to me.

I’m a little bit confused by the vociferous defenses of Bloom given the team’s current situation: a mere 5 games over .500, the worst start in their last 50 years, one of the worst pens in all of baseball at the only job a pen does (protect leads), a dreadful record against divisional opponents, and their big offseason acquisition in Story currently OPS+ing 94. Seriously, has anyone noticed Story has been in a long slump? His OPSis down to 714.

The payroll is $200 million+, so Bloom spent. But the results havent matched that.

Yes they’ve had injuries, and the whole vaccination issue with Houck really threw the team into a tailspin twice, which is out of Bloom’s control. They also rebounded nicely after their terrible start to get themselves competitive again…until they had to face the division again.

My point being, there are many legitimate concerns about the way this team was constructed and no one should be shocked that the architect of said team gets flak for it.

Perhaps finally getting Whitlock back into the pen will stabilize it, he was awesome last night like he always has been. They dumped Robles after giving him far too much slack, perhaps they’ll dump more chaff as well. They can make more moves. That will be the
real judgment on Bloom’s season IMO.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

Don’t forget the fact insistence in beginning the last two seasons without a competent first baseman and hoping that JBJ bounces back without any backup plan.

Also this weird McKinseyian obsession with efficiency by putting players out of position (Arroyo in right, Franchy at first, etc.) Their lack of experience in these roles have bitten them in the ass more than once.

I don’t think that trying new things (bullpen by committee, anyone?) is not inherently bad, but you also have to know when to pull the plug. Bloom doesn’t seem to know this. I kinda feel as if Bloom loved the idea of Jose Oquendo as a boy and wants to try it with every fringe player.

 

[snowmanny]

Story over Schwarber, if such a choice existed, is not a winner so far this year. But there’s a ways to go on both those contracts, and variables to be revealed with Bogaerts, Casas, etc.

 

[BaseballJones]

Nobody should be confused over whether Chaim has done a good job overall. Game 6 of the ALCS last year, in the playoff mix this year all while totally overhauling and retooling the entire system. Most of the time when teams rebuild, they’re a dumpster fire for a few years minimum before starting to climb back out of it (see Houston before they got good). Not the Sox under Chaim.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Story over Schwarber, if such a choice existed, is not a winner so far this year. But there’s a ways to go on both those contracts, and variables to be revealed with Bogaerts, Casas, etc.

Although fielding counts too, and Story has been GG level, while Schwarber is…..not

 

[snowmanny]

Although fielding counts too, and Story has been GG level, while Schwarber is…..not

Of course. Right now with Schwarber on the team you would replace Dalbec at first, but likely have some offensive black hole at second and lose something defensively there as well. 28 HRs is sexy though.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Of course. Right now with Schwarber on the team you would replace Dalbec at first, but likely have some offensive black hole at second and lose something defensively there as well. 28 HRs is sexy though.

I love Schwarber, despite his Cubs stench, and really wanted him back. My guess is that, for better or worse, the Sox were/are counting on Casas at first. Of course, Schwarber could then take over for JD next season.

 

[cfmoran13]

Clearly you're new in following the game of baseball. Welcome!

Clearly, you're the guy who makes the whitty retorts. I've been a fan of theirs since 1985.

Before the season started if Dalbec went down or sucked they had Casas. If any of the outfielders went down they had Duran.

Personally, I just see this as flawed. If Dalbec, a guy who far surpassed his expectations in his rookie year, went down, they had Casas, a 22-year old who had 9 games above AA before this season. He should really get a full year of AAA service before coming up. And, if any of the outfielders went down, one of whom is JBJ (not an offensive threat), they had Duran, a kid who hit .215 with 2 HR's in just over 100 ML AB's.

Plus, I'm not saying everything Bloom has done has been awful. Getting Pivetta and Seibold for Workman and Hembree has worked out great. However, before the deadline, as this team is constructed now, they're gonna fade. Between now and the beginning of September, they have 7 games against teams with sub-.500 records. Kike's return is unclear. And, even when he does come back, it's not like he was hitting the cover off the ball this season. And, Arroyo is just "fine". But, he's not suddenly gonna start hitting bombs when he comes back. They absolutely need offensive reinforcements.

As far as the bullpen goes, you can really rely on Schrieber, Whitlock and Hauck. Strahm has been mostly good (hopefully, his wrist isn't totally f*cked). The rest have flashes of goodness. But, they need a dependable closer, so you can back up Schrieber, Whit and Hauck for 6-7-8.

With the statements coming from Bloom and Henry, I guess I'm just bracing myself for the worst. I don't hear anything encouraging coming from above.

It was really good seeing them not give up on the game last night. Hopefully, that momentum carries forward into Games 2 and 3. A scoreless 1st from Pivetta would be huge tonight.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Nobody should be confused over whether Chaim has done a good job overall. Game 6 of the ALCS last year, in the playoff mix this year all while totally overhauling and retooling the entire system. Most of the time when teams rebuild, they’re a dumpster fire for a few years minimum before starting to climb back out of it (see Houston before they got good). Not the Sox under Chaim.

He inherited an 85 win team with Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Chris Sale, Nate Eovaldi, etc. It’s not as if the team was devoid of talent (although it was too heavy and lacked depth). A few years later, they are…an 85 win team, with more minor league talent, but less major league talent. I think it’s way too early to take a victory lap. Bloom’s future will be determined by how he handles with Boagerts and Devers (either resigning and rebuilding around them.m, or moving them and redistributing their $$$).

Why do some seem so passionate in their defense of Bloom and so unwilling to criticize him at all? I don’t recall any of this with Donbrowski, a guy who was canned after winning 119 games.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

He inherited an 85 win team with Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Chris Sale, Nate Eovaldi, etc. It’s not as if the team was devoid of talent (although it was too heavy and lacked depth). A few years later, they are…an 85 win team, with more minor league talent, but less major league talent. I think it’s way too early to take a victory lap. Bloom’s future will be determined by how he handles with Boagerts and Devers (either resigning and rebuilding around them.m, or moving them and redistributing their $$$).

Why do some seem so passionate in their defense of Bloom and so unwilling to criticize him at all? I don’t recall any of this with Donbrowski, a guy who was canned after winning 119 games.

Or, a few years later they were a 92 win team who got to Game 6 of the ALCS. Honestly, I think part of the passionate defense of Bloom is the fact that others cherry pick the bad stuff and ignore the good stuff. This can certainly go both ways, and it's fair that the jury is still out for some. But personally, I put a lot of value in last year's results, this year's competitiveness, and a now top-5 system. Others may not. I think what personally defines success shapes personal evaluation.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Totally, last season was awesome, but why are we pretending like he rebuilt some horrible organization? 93,93,108, 84, 24*, 92, 85 (pace) wins over the past seven seasons. (Edited)

It is great that the farm system is improved- and it needs to be because there Is a lot of high end talent on the team that will need to be resigned (costing more money and requiring cheaper young players to supplement the roster), or replaced (via players acquired for trades of prospects, or those younger players themselves). Just having a high rated system doesn’t mean much without turning it into value (and I’m not saying Bloom won’t do that, it’s just TBD!)

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Totally, last season was awesome, but why are we pretending like he rebuilt some horrible organization? 93,93,108, 24*, 84, 92, 85 (pace) wins over the past seven seasons.

You flipped the 84 and 24, but your point stands.
Isn't part of it that the performance of the team had been great, but the system was empty when he took over? The Dodgers and Yankees have stayed competitive in part because their systems never bottomed out like the Sox system did. Having a bottom 3 system gives you neither prospects nor trade chips, and that's pretty much an unsustainable path. So while the major league team was performing, the overall organization he inherited was somewhat tenuous

 

[nvalvo]

"Gutted" doesn't just mean who was traded away. It also includes the lack of replenishing of the farm during the Dombrowski years.

The top 6 of the Dombrowski draft years in terms of WAR so far:

Santiago Espinal 4.7 (all with Toronto)
Tanner Houck 4.0
Trevor Stephan 1.0 (all with Cleveland) *went unsigned by the Sox
Kutter Crawford 0.3
Bobby Dalbec -0.2
Jarren Duran -0.5

Some of that could be that the Sox finished 1st and drafted in the bottom half for three of his four drafts. Some of it was bad luck with guys like Groome and Casas being delayed by injuries. Bottom line is that the pipeline was a bit dry in the few years following the all-in plunge that resulted in the 2018 title.

Remember, though, the amateur scouting staff are the same people across regimes. So I think it's probably just noise and draft position/budget that controls how they're able to perform. You can't draft a Marcelo Mayer if you won the division the year before, no matter how good you are.

But that said, Dombrowski and Bloom clearly have different attitudes about roster building, but it shows in other ways. Bloom's impact on the organization has been in finding opportunities to actively replenish the entire 40-man and talent pipeline: the much-discussed Betts trade, the Pivetta/Seabold trade (obvious heist), the Benintendi trade (more of a wash — pros and cons; don't sleep on Luis de la Rosa), getting Whitlock and Ort in Rule V (incredible), the Renfroe/Bradley/Binelas/Hamilton deal (mixed).

Dombrowski seems much more focused on a "stars and scrubs" approach: get and retain as many great players as you can get your grubby little paws on, and surround them with fungible randos. Don't get me wrong — he's good at it, and he deserves a ton of credit for building the amazing 2018 team. So the Dombrowski experience is the 2013 Detroit Tigers: a rotation with four aces, but no bullpen. Or it's the brittleness of acquiring Sale and Price at retail prices, and then watching Hector Velazquez, Steven Wright and Mike Shawaryn start games when they get hurt, as pitchers will often do.

Bloom's approach has taken us from a farm ranked 22 to a farm ranked 5 in three seasons, only one of which had a losing record at the big league level — and, well, that was a weird one for a lot of reasons. Last time we had a farm with this kind of ranking was 2014-2015, and the next few years saw three division titles and a World Series. The 2014-15 Sox were fifth place teams; we're considerably better than that now.

Dombrowski did an amazing job turning that elite farm into those contending teams. It remains to be seen how Bloom will do at that spot on the success cycle. I think the Story deal was a promising start; obviously there are big decisions to make with Bogaerts and Devers, but there's also a loaded farm and something like $100m in AAV below the CBT to spend this offseason.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

You flipped the 84 and 24, but your point stands.
Isn't part of it that the performance of the team had been great, but the system was empty when he took over? The Dodgers and Yankees have stayed competitive in part because their systems never bottomed out like the Sox system did. Having a bottom 3 system gives you neither prospects nor trade chips, and that's pretty much an unsustainable path. So while the major league team was performing, the overall organization he inherited was somewhat tenuous

True (and thanks about the correction on wins by year) .

i think you want to judge an organization by evaluating the totality of its talent; across the majors and minors.

Clearly, I’m more worried about the next few season than many because I think it is going to be difficult to replace a lot of the high end talent on the big league roster that is expiring to maintain the level of the play the team has been accustomed to. Give huge contracts to D&B and the roster is a bit top heavy; injuries and underperformance and you have the same issues that plagued the Sox in DD’s last year with Price and Sale. Don’t bring them back and you’ve severely lowered the talent level on the roster and the upper bounds of win potential.

Bloom is going to have to make bold moves, either giving up talent or $$$, that are probably going to make people uncomfortable. I’m not saying he can’t or won’t do anything- I have no idea. But it has seemed to me that some of the recent moves (Paxton, Bradley, Wacha / Hill, maybe even Story etc) have seemed to prioritize flexibility in future years a bit more win than winning in the current.

Maybe it’s the right thing- it certainly could be- but I would love to see a little more aggressiveness at improving the flaws with this team. While recognizing it’s not easy, surely he’s trying, it takes two to tango, etc.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

True (and thanks about the correction on wins by year) .

i think you want to judge an organization by evaluating the totality of its talent; across the majors and minors.

Clearly, I’m more worried about the next few season than many because I think it is going to be difficult to replace a lot of the high end talent on the big league roster that is expiring to maintain the level of the play the team has been accustomed to. Give huge contracts to D&B and the roster is a bit top heavy; injuries and underperformance and you have the same issues that plagued the Sox in DD’s last year with Price and Sale. Don’t bring them back and you’ve severely lowered the talent level on the roster and the upper bounds of win potential.

Bloom is going to have to make bold moves, either giving up talent or $$$, that are probably going to make people uncomfortable. I’m not saying he can’t or won’t do anything- I have no idea. But it has seemed to me that some of the recent moves (Paxton, Bradley, Wacha / Hill, maybe even Story etc) have seemed to prioritize flexibility in future years a bit more win than winning in the current.

Maybe it’s the right thing- it certainly could be- but I would love to see a little more aggressiveness at improving the flaws with this team. While recognizing it’s not easy, surely he’s trying, it takes two to tango, etc.

You and I have debated the definition of “generational” hitter, but I stand by my belief that Devers is one. I think that’s Bloom’s biggest challenge. I was fine with the Mookie decision, but I do not want to lose Raffy. However, I also don’t want to be on the hook for a Mookie-like contract. Fortunately, Bloom is a shitload better than me at this stuff.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

You and I have debated the definition of “generational” hitter, but I stand by my belief that Devers is one. I think that’s Bloom’s biggest challenge. I was fine with the Mookie decision, but I do not want to lose Raffy. However, I also don’t want to be on the hook for a Mookie-like contract. Fortunately, Bloom is a shitload better than me at this stuff.

Devers has improved so much, on every facet of the game, that I think I’m with you, I think he’s as much a must-resign as there gets. But I also suspect it’s a 10–12 year deal at ~$35m per with multiple opt outs that is going to be really difficult to swallow. Going to be fascinating to see how it turns out, what this roster looks like in 2024 is a total mystery to me (as I’ve probably said a billion times).

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

Bloom's approach has taken us from a farm ranked 22 to a farm ranked 5 in three seasons, only one of which had a losing record at the big league level — and, well, that was a weird one for a lot of reasons. Last time we had a farm with this kind of ranking was 2014-2015, and the next few years saw three division titles and a World Series. The 2014-15 Sox were fifth place teams; we're considerably better than that now.

I may have missed this but who has the Red Sox farm system ranked fifth? The last I checked, the highest was 11th and Keith Law had them 21st (I believe).

 

[nvalvo]

Good question. I'm not positive. But that misses the point. The point is that when they're still prospects, they have value based on the *potential* of being really good. That's why teams trade established stars for prospects. Once those prospects become MLB players and bad ones, of course they lose value. But when they're prospects, you don't know that they're going to be bad.

For example, right now, a guy like Mayer has a ton of value to the Red Sox' organization. We have NO clue whether he'll actually be a really good or really bad MLB player, if he'll get hurt and never play in the bigs, or become a hall of famer. But a lot of teams would give a lot of capital to acquire him from Boston, thus he has a lot of value to the Sox' organization.

That said, here's a summary of his deals: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/04/revisiting-dave-dombrowskis-red-sox-trades.html

Some good names on that list.

- Yoan Moncada - hit .315 with 25 homers for Chicago in 2019 as a 24-year old.
- Michael Kopech - 3.50 era in 2021, 3.35 era in 2022 for the White Sox
- Jalen Beeks - has been awesome for Tampa this year: 2.48 era, 1.18 whip, 11.0 k/9 in their bullpen
- Ty Buttrey - isn't in baseball now but in 2019 and 2020 he had a 3.31 and 3.98 era for the Angels
- Manuel Margot - presently hitting .302 (132 ops+) for the Rays, and had 2.8 bWAR last year for them - would be far better than JBJ

But the fact that he traded some players who have done well and conceivably could be a big help to the present-day Red Sox (while others have done nothing) isn't even the point. Those guys were dealt for help at the time (Moncada and Kopech got Sale, and Beeks got Eovaldi, and both Sale and Eovaldi were HUGE in the 2018 championship season) and it was great. The point is just that he really dealt away a TON from the farm system, including the vast majority of their top prospects. And Chaim had to restock the organization with talent. And he's done just that.

This list leaves out AL All Star Santiago Espinal.

 

[nvalvo]

I may have missed this but who has the Red Sox farm system ranked fifth? The last I checked, the highest was 11th and Keith Law had them 21st (I believe).

Fangraphs farm rankings right now.

 

[Captaincoop]

Nobody should be confused over whether Chaim has done a good job overall. Game 6 of the ALCS last year, in the playoff mix this year all while totally overhauling and retooling the entire system. Most of the time when teams rebuild, they’re a dumpster fire for a few years minimum before starting to climb back out of it (see Houston before they got good). Not the Sox under Chaim.

I don't have a strong opinion on Bloom yet, but the Sox have a top 5/6 payroll in MLB. There should be no excuse for becoming a last place dumpster fire at any point. This isn't the NBA or the NFL.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

Fangraphs farm rankings right now.

Thank you. I’ll check it out.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

- Manuel Margot - presently hitting .302 (132 ops+) for the Rays, and had 2.8 bWAR last year for them - would be far better than JBJ

Manuel Margot is on the 60 day DL and last played on 6/20. He'd fit right in. He also has a BAbip of .361 and an ISO of .121. I wonder how much of his year is due to luck.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Clearly, you're the guy who makes the whitty retorts. I've been a fan of theirs since 1985.

Sweet.

Their main problem is depth. They have none. If anyone at virtually any position goes down, they have no backup plan. if Vasquez goes down, they have Plawecki (ugh!). If Franchy goes down at first base (already brutal), they have Dalbec. Up until Jeter Downs' call-up, if Devers went down, Dalbec was the back up. If anyone in the rotation goes down (as they all have), they need to call AAA. And, the bullpen has 2-3 reliable guys with no true closer.

Which Sox teams since 1985 had a ML ready catcher, first baseman, third baseman, outfielder(s), multiple starting pitchers, and multiple bullpen arms just sort of sitting around, keeping their thumbs warm, in case a starter goes down?

Also, what makes a "true closer?" Is it the mystique, or the aura? Asking for a friend.