Red Sox in season discussion

Cesar Crespo

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Thank you. I’ll check it out.
They have 6 different guys that will appear on top 100 lists. 2 of them (Mayer, Casas) being top 20 prospects and another 2 (Bello, Yorke) being in the 40-70 range. I'd guess Rafaela will be on most lists, though the range will be huge (40-100). Walter (70-100). There's an outside chance Bleis makes a list or two as well if he continues his current play.

There's plenty of depth too. I think I might be one of 3 people who has mentioned the name Nathan Hickey on this board. He was the Sox 5th round pick last year. He was hitting .271/.429/.507 in 182 PA at Salem with 39bb/39k to earn himself a promotion to Greenville. Since joining, he's slashing .267/.378/.467 in 37 PA, 5bb/9k. He's a 22 year old catcher with a chance of sticking behind the plate. He turns 23 in November and will most likely start his age 23 season at AA. Age appropriate, especially since he's a C. He'd be a top 10 prospect on some teams. On the Sox, he might crack a top 20 list. Jay Groome, Lugo, Paulino can't crack the top 10. Blaze Jordan is a 19 year old putting up a .294/.364/.471 line in 343 PA with 32bb and only 55k. He fell from 10 to 14th on Soxprospects.com.

I'd be surprised if anyone ranking the Sox outside the top 10 isn't a small minority. The farm has had a lot of stuff go right this year. The average team would have 1 top 30 prospect, 2 top 60s, and 3.3 in the top 100. The Sox are looking at 2, 4, and 5-6. They are at least a top 10 system, probably top 5.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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It’s better to have a higher ranked farm system than not, but three years ago the #5 farm system was the Arizona Diamondbacks, fronted by Alex Thomas, Kristian Robinson, Corbin Carroll, and Seth Beer. Hell, the Padres were first and aren’t seeing significant contributions from any of these guys. Hell, the Mariners were only ranked 11th- yet Gilbert and Rodriguez are phenomenal.


https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-farm-system-rankings-2019

isn’t now the time to cash in on some of these guys, whose value may never be higher?
 

YTF

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It’s better to have a higher ranked farm system than not, but three years ago the #5 farm system was the Arizona Diamondbacks, fronted by Alex Thomas, Kristian Robinson, Corbin Carroll, and Seth Beer. Hell, the Padres were first and aren’t seeing significant contributions from any of these guys. Hell, the Mariners were only ranked 11th- yet Gilbert and Rodriguez are phenomenal.


https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-farm-system-rankings-2019

isn’t now the time to cash in on some of these guys, whose value may never be higher?
Possibly, but the question is which ones, how many and for who. IMO that simulated deal for Soto in the trade thread does exactly what people claim DD did.
 

Cesar Crespo

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isn’t now the time to cash in on some of these guys, whose value may never be higher?
In the right deal, anyone is available. Which ones and for who are the important questions. Also, holding on to players to see if they work out isn't the worst strategy in the world. You might end up with Blake Swihart, but you also keep Betts, X, Devers.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Possibly, but the question is which ones, how many and for who. IMO that simulated deal for Soto in the trade thread does exactly what people claim DD did.
That would be a terrible deal for the Sox. Committing a ton of money while gutting the farm in the process. Either re-sign your own guys or sign guys in FA. Don't gut your system to pay someone market value. I'd maybe give up one and a package of lesser prospects but I'm against these huge mega deals to begin with. And 15 years? I guess that's one way to lower the AAV.
 

cfmoran13

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Jul 15, 2022
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Sweet.



Which Sox teams since 1985 had a ML ready catcher, first baseman, third baseman, outfielder(s), multiple starting pitchers, and multiple bullpen arms just sort of sitting around, keeping their thumbs warm, in case a starter goes down?

Also, what makes a "true closer?" Is it the mystique, or the aura? Asking for a friend.
I'm just saying, going into a season with Bobby Dalbec and Franchy Cordero as your options for first base is not a good idea. It'd be like going all in on Daniel Nava as a starting outfielder and having a AA hopeful behind him.

As far as a "true closer", I'd just like to have someone with some kind of track record instead of pinning all my postseason hopes on someone who hasn't been in that position before. Whitlock and Hauck have been really good. i just think that they'd be better served as Boston's Mariano to its Wetteland. Not everything has to be a baptism by fire. Not every problem has to be solved from within.
 

scottyno

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As far as a "true closer", I'd just like to have someone with some kind of track record instead of pinning all my postseason hopes on someone who hasn't been in that position before. Whitlock and Hauck have been really good. i just think that they'd be better served as Boston's Mariano to its Wetteland. Not everything has to be a baptism by fire. Not every problem has to be solved from within.
They had a a "true closer", they just released him because he sucked for 2 months, it's a pretty meaningless term, because there are plenty of closers that aren't elite relievers.
 

Rovin Romine

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I'm just saying, going into a season with Bobby Dalbec and Franchy Cordero as your options for first base is not a good idea.
You probably would have been better served by actually writing that, instead of writing something completely different. Because it's an interesting premise for discussion.

(Also, nobody named Hauck is in the org.)
 

cfmoran13

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They had a a "true closer", they just released him because he sucked for 2 months, it's a pretty meaningless term, because there are plenty of closers that aren't elite relievers.
Actually, he's still wallowing on the IL. Barnes is supposedly coming back sometime mid-August. Unless he really shows something in his rehab stint, I wouldn't trust him as a mop-up guy. He's scary AF. And, I can't believe the Dodgers are signing Robles. He was just as bad.
 

cfmoran13

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You probably would have been better served by actually writing that, instead of writing something completely different. Because it's an interesting premise for discussion.

(Also, nobody named Hauck is in the org.)
Houck. I wasn't paying attention to the evil auto-correct.
 

Cesar Crespo

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As far as a "true closer", I'd just like to have someone with some kind of track record instead of pinning all my postseason hopes on someone who hasn't been in that position before. Whitlock and Hauck have been really good. i just think that they'd be better served as Boston's Mariano to its Wetteland. Not everything has to be a baptism by fire. Not every problem has to be solved from within.
Papelbon established a track record with Boston the year before. Koji had all of 14 career saves. Foulke was established. Kimbrell too. Kimbrell was tough to watch.

I can see wanting a reliever better than Whitlock and Houck, just not sure why they have to be an established closer. Even if that ends up being their role.
 

scottyno

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Actually, he's still wallowing on the IL. Barnes is supposedly coming back sometime mid-August. Unless he really shows something in his rehab stint, I wouldn't trust him as a mop-up guy. He's scary AF. And, I can't believe the Dodgers are signing Robles. He was just as bad.
I meant Robles, you know the guy who was an actual closer when the Sox traded for him. So when you say true closer what you really mean is great pitcher.
 

YTF

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I'm just saying, going into a season with Bobby Dalbec and Franchy Cordero as your options for first base is not a good idea. It'd be like going all in on Daniel Nava as a starting outfielder and having a AA hopeful behind him.

As far as a "true closer", I'd just like to have someone with some kind of track record instead of pinning all my postseason hopes on someone who hasn't been in that position before. Whitlock and Hauck have been really good. i just think that they'd be better served as Boston's Mariano to its Wetteland. Not everything has to be a baptism by fire. Not every problem has to be solved from within.
I think most here will agree that in foresight and hindsight a Dalbec/Cordero combo at 1B wasn't a good plan. In fact Franchy wasn't here initially. Dalbec was thought to be a place holder for the mid-season debut of Tristan Casas. It wasn't ideal, but there was a plan in place, one that didn't pan out due to the Casas injury. As for the closer situation, again on the surface there didn't seem to be a plan to many people other than throwing shit against the wall and seeing what might stick. I think Bloom felt that there were enough arms in the organization that somebody (bodies) could hold down the fort until a mid season infusion from the return of Sale and Paxton. The former is back, but the latter won't come until later and due to additional injuries that bolster to the pen is yet to come. I don't think that Bloom punted on the season (not your words), but rather looked at this team as one that would able to hang in the WC face until the deadline, assess both what they have and what they need and try to make moves that may benefit both this season and beyond.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Actually, he's still wallowing on the IL. Barnes is supposedly coming back sometime mid-August. Unless he really shows something in his rehab stint, I wouldn't trust him as a mop-up guy. He's scary AF. And, I can't believe the Dodgers are signing Robles. He was just as bad.
Had his best outing (out of 3 rehab stints) today. 1.0 ip, 1 hit, 1r/0er, 0bb/2k.
1st game: 1.0 ip, 3 hits, 3r/3er, 0bb/1k, 1 HRA
2nd game: 1.0 ip, 2 hits, 1r/1er, 1bb/2k.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I meant Robles, you know the guy who was an actual closer when the Sox traded for him. So when you say true closer what you really mean is great pitcher.
When was Barnes ever great? A return to form would help but Tanner Houck's current 132 ERA+ is a better mark than Barnes has ever posted. It's also Houck's worst mark, though sample sizes are playing a part.
 

YTF

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Actually, he's still wallowing on the IL. Barnes is supposedly coming back sometime mid-August. Unless he really shows something in his rehab stint, I wouldn't trust him as a mop-up guy. He's scary AF. And, I can't believe the Dodgers are signing Robles. He was just as bad.
Minor league deal on Robles, low expectations if any. Sox have done lots of these in the past
 

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When was Barnes ever great? A return to form would help but Tanner Houck's current 132 ERA+ is a better mark than Barnes has ever posted. It's also Houck's worst mark, though sample sizes are playing a part.
Barnes was pretty great in the first half of last season. And then he turned back into Matt Barnes.
 

cfmoran13

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I meant Robles, you know the guy who was an actual closer when the Sox traded for him. So when you say true closer what you really mean is great pitcher.
Yeah, I kinda thought you meant Robles. I just never considered him as Boston’s closer. And, I hope I’m not coming across as a d*ck. Just trying to contribute to the discussion.
 

cfmoran13

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Minor league deal on Robles, low expectations if any. Sox have done lots of these in the past
I guess it shouldn’t be surprising someone would try and take a flyer on him. I’m sure it’s a super-low risk deal. Maybe a change of scenery will do him good. The more laid back West Coast.
 

Cesar Crespo

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If I remember correctly, he was really good pretty much up until the time he signed the extension.
I guess it's semantics but really good =/= great. He's definitely had a few stretches where he's looked great but has ultimately never put together an entire season. He walks too many.
 

scottyno

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Yeah, I kinda thought you meant Robles. I just never considered him as Boston’s closer. And, I hope I’m not coming across as a d*ck. Just trying to contribute to the discussion.
Yeah, they didn't really have one last year once they lost confidence in Barnes, a few guys each got a few saves. But that's kind of the point, Robles was a closer when they traded for him, he just wasn't a great pitcher.

For example, Raisel Iglesias is a guy that I'm sure is available. He's a proven closer with a lot of saves this year. Would anyone be happy if they traded for him and made him the closer over Houck?
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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I guess it's semantics but really good =/= great. He's definitely had a few stretches where he's looked great but has ultimately never put together an entire season. He walks too many.
It probably is semantics, but April- July last season he was 43 IP, 24 H, 11 BB, 66 K. For that stretch he was pretty dominant. I wanted to trade him.
 

Ganthem

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I'm just saying, going into a season with Bobby Dalbec and Franchy Cordero as your options for first base is not a good idea. It'd be like going all in on Daniel Nava as a starting outfielder and having a AA hopeful behind him.

As far as a "true closer", I'd just like to have someone with some kind of track record instead of pinning all my postseason hopes on someone who hasn't been in that position before. Whitlock and Hauck have been really good. i just think that they'd be better served as Boston's Mariano to its Wetteland. Not everything has to be a baptism by fire. Not every problem has to be solved from within.
You mean going into the season with a guy who hit the cover off the ball the final six weeks of the season was not a good idea? Look at Bogey's first season. He put up something like a 650 ops, yet he was the starting shortstop the following season. It generally takes around 500 to 600 at bats before you can safely say a player is what he is. Based on what Dalbec did last season there was a good chance that it took awhile, but he figured things out. Lastly Franchy was not considered an option for first base. I have doubts as to weather Franchy was on anybodies radar at all. Casas who is a top prospect in baseball however was seen as the fall back. The thought process was solid, the execution due to some bad luck hasn't worked out.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Dalbec had a nice stretch but was also unplayable in the postseason because he can’t touch power pitchers; it’s the reason they were comfortable playing Schwarber out of position. I think there were a bunch of factors here, though. The truncated off-season and the lockout, and the maybe pursuit of Suzuki made it so that the Sox were kind of forced to start the season with a crew that probably wasn’t what they really wanted. I think a more focused off-season would have helped but they seemed to have been left a little flat footed when the season started and then injuries kind of took over. It’s frustrating, for sure. I imagine they will eventually address the 1b/rf issues, once the market develops.
 

scottyno

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It should probably be pointed out that after yesterday Dalbec is now on a 2.5 month stretch of being an above average hitter. And he's been crushing lefties all year.

Yeah he was complete trash in April, but since then he's been perfectly fine as a part time player, and he definitely has a useful role on the team, at least as a platoon player.
 

dhappy42

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You mean going into the season with a guy who hit the cover off the ball the final six weeks of the season was not a good idea? Look at Bogey's first season. He put up something like a 650 ops, yet he was the starting shortstop the following season. It generally takes around 500 to 600 at bats before you can safely say a player is what he is. Based on what Dalbec did last season there was a good chance that it took awhile, but he figured things out. Lastly Franchy was not considered an option for first base. I have doubts as to weather Franchy was on anybodies radar at all. Casas who is a top prospect in baseball however was seen as the fall back. The thought process was solid, the execution due to some bad luck hasn't worked out.
Don't forget Travis Shaw.

Seriously, 1B with Dalbec/Shaw/Casas and RF with JBJ/Franchy/Duran were obviously gambles. Kike's early suckitude and injury and Casas's injury made the gambles not paying off even worse. At least Durran is hitting okay.
 

Ganthem

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It should probably be pointed out that after yesterday Dalbec is now on a 2.5 month stretch of being an above average hitter. And he's been crushing lefties all year.

Yeah he was complete trash in April, but since then he's been perfectly fine as a part time player, and he definitely has a useful role on the team, at least as a platoon player.
I took April out of the equation and he actually has a 103 wrc+ for the season. Vs lefties for the season he is at a 126 wrc+. Last time I checked on his numbers vs lefties a few months ago, they were not good enough for Cora to justify pinch hitting Franchy for him. I actually didn't expect to see these stats. He actually is a useful part of this team as a lefty killer coming off the bench. That being said as soon as a righty starts pitching he needs to be benched.

Lastly I think Dalbec was always the plan to start at first base for the season. It feels to me that they are really high on Casas and all they wanted was a place holder for a few months. Dalbec was an obvious choice for that role.
 

Ganthem

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Don't forget Travis Shaw.

Seriously, 1B with Dalbec/Shaw/Casas and RF with JBJ/Franchy/Duran were obviously gambles. Kike's early suckitude and injury and Casas's injury made the gambles not paying off even worse. At least Durran is hitting okay.
Sorry for multiple post, but I didn't see this until I had posted my other comment. What I have noticed is that where Bloom seemed to take the biggest swings, first base and right field, are also places were there was a promising prospect in the minors to back it up. Obviously the suckage and injury of Kike and the injury to Casas changed the equation, but it doesn't seem like Bloom was putting all his eggs in one basket.
 

scottyno

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I took April out of the equation and he actually has a 103 wrc+ for the season. Vs lefties for the season he is at a 126 wrc+. Last time I checked on his numbers vs lefties a few months ago, they were not good enough for Cora to justify pinch hitting Franchy for him. I actually didn't expect to see these stats. He actually is a useful part of this team as a lefty killer coming off the bench. That being said as soon as a righty starts pitching he needs to be benched.
Yeah, unfortunatly with Franchy's slump combined with his poor defense he isn't holding up his end of the platoon. If they could replace him with a 2017 Mitch Moreland type that would be pretty useful.
 

ngruz25

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It should probably be pointed out that after yesterday Dalbec is now on a 2.5 month stretch of being an above average hitter. And he's been crushing lefties all year.

Yeah he was complete trash in April, but since then he's been perfectly fine as a part time player, and he definitely has a useful role on the team, at least as a platoon player.
I'm not seeing the usefulness, frankly. Or at least I'm not seeing any usefulness that can't be improved upon. He might be an average hitter for the last couple months, but that still makes him a well below average first baseman. Has he really crushed lefties? He has an OPS of about .780 for the season against lefties. That's decent, but coupled with his terrible defense and difficulty against high velocity pitching (making him a poor pinch hitting option against modern relief pitching), I'm seeing a pretty poor use of a roster spot.

The Franchy/Bobby platoon is frustrating. They're both bad defensively, Bobby is Bobby, and Franchy looks to be regressing back to his old self at the plate. Even when Casas gets healthy, he doesn't look ready for the majors.
 

scottyno

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I'm not seeing the usefulness, frankly. Or at least I'm not seeing any usefulness that can't be improved upon. He might be an average hitter for the last couple months, but that still makes him a well below average first baseman. Has he really crushed lefties? He has an OPS of about .780 for the season against lefties. That's decent, but coupled with his terrible defense and difficulty against high velocity pitching (making him a poor pinch hitting option against modern relief pitching), I'm seeing a pretty poor use of a roster spot.
121 sOPS+ vs lefties, yeah that's kind of crushing.

And I agree that an average hitting 1st baseman isn't ideal, but it also isn't a disaster and a complete black hole in the lineup. Can it be upgraded? Sure. Can it be upgraded at a price that makes sense is the real question that none of us can answer.
 

dhappy42

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I'm not seeing the usefulness, frankly. Or at least I'm not seeing any usefulness that can't be improved upon. He might be an average hitter for the last couple months, but that still makes him a well below average first baseman. Has he really crushed lefties? He has an OPS of about .780 for the season against lefties. That's decent, but coupled with his terrible defense and difficulty against high velocity pitching (making him a poor pinch hitting option against modern relief pitching), I'm seeing a pretty poor use of a roster spot.

The Franchy/Bobby platoon is frustrating. They're both bad defensively, Bobby is Bobby, and Franchy looks to be regressing back to his old self at the plate. Even when Casas gets healthy, he doesn't look ready for the majors.
Red Sox are second from last in "wins above average" (-2.0) at 1B. Only Detroit is worse.

They're also second from last at total OF, (-3.7) above Oakland.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi
 

Jed Zeppelin

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121 sOPS+ vs lefties, yeah that's kind of crushing.

And I agree that an average hitting 1st baseman isn't ideal, but it also isn't a disaster and a complete black hole in the lineup. Can it be upgraded? Sure. Can it be upgraded at a price that makes sense is the real question that none of us can answer.
It’s largely driven by a high walk rate against LHP. He only has 17 hits against them and has struck out in a third of his plate appearances. He was slugging under .400 against them until yesterday. Not utterly useless and actively harmful the way he is against RHP but not what you want from a supposed lefty masher. Steve Pearce in 2018 is more like it.
 

Ganthem

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I am not sure anyone would argue that first base can't be improved upon. That being said, Dalbec has not been as useless as I for one previously thought. Even if the Sox get a full time first baseman who can hit righties and lefties Dalbec still has some use against lefties.
 

dhappy42

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I am not sure anyone would argue that first base can't be improved upon. That being said, Dalbec has not been as useless as I for one previously thought. Even if the Sox get a full time first baseman who can hit righties and lefties Dalbec still has some use against lefties.
For example, last night.
 

scottyno

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It’s largely driven by a high walk rate against LHP. He only has 17 hits against them and has struck out in a third of his plate appearances. He was slugging under .400 against them until yesterday. Not utterly useless and actively harmful the way he is against RHP but not what you want from a supposed lefty masher. Steve Pearce in 2018 is more like it.
2018 Steve Pierce was one of the best hitters in baseball when healthy and hit great against everyone, if that guy is available for almost nothing the Sox should probably make that move.
 

E5 Yaz

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2018 Steve Pierce was one of the best hitters in baseball when healthy and hit great against everyone, if that guy is available for almost nothing the Sox should probably make that move.
Funny that Pearce makes his way into the discussion on the day the prospect traded for him makes the All-Star team
 

snowmanny

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I am not sure anyone would argue that first base can't be improved upon. That being said, Dalbec has not been as useless as I for one previously thought. Even if the Sox get a full time first baseman who can hit righties and lefties Dalbec still has some use against lefties.
For example, Casas.
Edit I mean in a perfect world. Who knows how he’ll be.
 

ngruz25

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121 sOPS+ vs lefties, yeah that's kind of crushing.

And I agree that an average hitting 1st baseman isn't ideal, but it also isn't a disaster and a complete black hole in the lineup. Can it be upgraded? Sure. Can it be upgraded at a price that makes sense is the real question that none of us can answer.
I don't think that sOPS+ is the right stat here. As I understand it, It tells us that Dalbec has a better split against lefties than the rest of the league's splits against lefties. That's all well and good, but it doesn't necessarily tell us that he's mashing lefties. His actual world production against lefties (OBP, SLG, HR) has been fine, but nothing terribly interesting. In other words, his OPS+ against lefties is more revealing than his sOPS+. I think.
 

scottyno

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I don't think that sOPS+ is the right stat here. As I understand it, It tells us that Dalbec has a better split against lefties than the rest of the league's splits against lefties. That's all well and good, but it doesn't necessarily tell us that he's mashing lefties. His actual world production against lefties (OBP, SLG, HR) has been fine, but nothing terribly interesting. In other words, his OPS+ against lefties is more revealing than his sOPS+. I think.
ops+ against lefties isn't a thing, so I'm kind of confused, unless you mean what he's done vs lefties vs what the entire league has done vs anyone, which doesn't seem very relevant.

A .787 ops vs anyone is very good
 

YTF

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I am not sure anyone would argue that first base can't be improved upon. That being said, Dalbec has not been as useless as I for one previously thought. Even if the Sox get a full time first baseman who can hit righties and lefties Dalbec still has some use against lefties.
IMO, for much of the season he's been mostly useless on offense. Defensively he's been inconsistent at best.
 

ngruz25

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ops+ against lefties isn't a thing, so I'm kind of confused, unless you mean what he's done vs lefties vs what the entire league has done vs anyone, which doesn't seem very relevant.

A .787 ops vs anyone is very good
Bah, I meant OPS, not OPS+. All I'm trying to get at is that he's a perfectly okay hitter against lefties (about 110th in all of baseball in OPS against lefties, tied with Michael Chavis), not a lefty masher, and coupled with poor defense and total zero effectiveness against righties, I'd rather the team move on from him.

He's more Dave McCarty than, I don't know, Steve Pearce or even Bobby Kielty.
 

Niastri

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Possibly, but the question is which ones, how many and for who. IMO that simulated deal for Soto in the trade thread does exactly what people claim DD did.
Yeah, trading several future cost controlled 4-5 WAR players for a current 7 WAR player who costs full market price is a way to have the best player in baseball and still have a bad team for a decade. I think that will be the price paid for Juan Soto by whomever trades for him.
 

OCD SS

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When the Dodgers traded for Mookie, they did not give up their top prospects. The Nats aren't going to get a bunch of top 100 guys either. They should get a better package for more years of control, but not that much more... I expect us all to look at the final package and be kind of underwhelmed...
 

catsooey

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Yeah, trading several future cost controlled 4-5 WAR players for a current 7 WAR player who costs full market price is a way to have the best player in baseball and still have a bad team for a decade. I think that will be the price paid for Juan Soto by whomever trades for him.

Ideally that kind of insight should keep teams from making these deals, and make good players a little more affordable across the board. But it always seems like there’s a team willing to do it. It doesn’t make sense to be the Angels, if you sacrifice your future just to have Mike Trout.
 

grimshaw

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When the Dodgers traded for Mookie, they did not give up their top prospects. The Nats aren't going to get a bunch of top 100 guys either. They should get a better package for more years of control, but not that much more... I expect us all to look at the final package and be kind of underwhelmed...
According to fangraphs last season he had the 5th highest trade value in baseball. That will obviously go down because it's been another season, but he will no doubt still be in the top 20.

Mookie Betts who was 3 years older when he was traded wasn't even in the top 50 after being #6 the season before and he was probably a better player. A year extra of control makes a huge difference for a premium player.

It may not be a Herschel Walker haul, but they will get a hell of a lot more than what the Sox got.