The "deal isn't done yet" because both Hanley and Panda are likely undergoing physicals today and then finalizing contracts. Until those things happen. No one will say anything. It's standard operating procedure.
Red Sox & Pablo Sandoval agree to 5 Year, $100 Millionish Deal
- Thread starter ScubaSteveAvery
- Start date
maufman said:
This is Mr.Speier's and likely by extension the FO's response to your objective evidence.. .
http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2014/11/03/pandas-aging-curve-what-does-history-say-about
Found the link to the thread. http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/35481-byrd-tipping-pitches-updated-with-video/Sprowl said:
EricFeczko said:
That was hardly the consensus in the 3B thread. Looking at his 2009-11 numbers, 2010 was an obvious outlier.
2012 was a bit lower than his 2009 and 2011 levels, and 2013-14 was a bit lower still. It looks like the decline path you'd expect to see from a player 2-3 years older than Sandoval. A lot of those doubts were couched in terms of body type, and comparisons to bad-body guys who I think are poor comps (because those guys couldn't play D like Sandoval in their best days), but the objective concerns were expressed too.
He's on a pretty slow decline path, so if you think Sandoval can stick at 3B for another 4 years, he'll probably earn his money if his bat doesn't fall off a cliff -- but if you think he'll age like a player 2-3 years older, the chances of his bat falling off that cliff are pretty darn high.
maufman said:
Canseco put up a 130 OPS+ during his 28-32 years. I mean, he had some help, but he was a good hitter post-25.
The objective evidence of decline is 1. dovetailed with periods of injury and 2. aligns well with offensive decline throughout baseball and 3. ignores just how many players have similar volatility.maufman said:
Sandoval has never been a bad player. Hell, he's only once been a more or less average player. Generally he's well above. His career to this point is very similar to Adrian Beltre's. Great talent, productive and had some huge seasons when he was younger despite playing in massive stadiums. Injury problems muddying the waters. When healthy and in the AL Beltre turned into a monster. I think there is reason to believe Sandoval could do the same.
For folks harping on source quality, ESPN is now reporting it:
BREAKING: Boston Red Sox have an agreement in place with 3B Pablo Sandoval. (via @espnhttps://twitter.com/espn)
https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/536895598327496706
BREAKING: Boston Red Sox have an agreement in place with 3B Pablo Sandoval. (via @espnhttps://twitter.com/espn)
https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/536895598327496706
Yes, Fenway is a hitters' park that is tailored for Pedroia's pull swing. So?mt8thsw9th said:
Most hitters hit better at home, but Panda's splits are just a little weird given that SF is supposed to kill offense. Again, maybe he just likes being at home and he will take to Fenway fine. But maybe he really likes SF in particular for some reason (maybe batter's eye).
Can we make Jake Wesley a member?
I'm just going to forget about the dollars. He's a burly, likeable, sometimes infuriating big mound of fun, and an upgrade at the position. Good enough for me. He is going to be fun to root for. I'm just going to choose to look at it as $190 million for Panda and Hanley combined, and from that perspective it seems slightly better.
That we spent $190 million and our 1 and 2 are still Buccholz and Kelly is still worrisome though, but I guess we are just going to have to win a few 11-7 games. Gulp.
I'm just going to forget about the dollars. He's a burly, likeable, sometimes infuriating big mound of fun, and an upgrade at the position. Good enough for me. He is going to be fun to root for. I'm just going to choose to look at it as $190 million for Panda and Hanley combined, and from that perspective it seems slightly better.
That we spent $190 million and our 1 and 2 are still Buccholz and Kelly is still worrisome though, but I guess we are just going to have to win a few 11-7 games. Gulp.
1) He hasn't been injured for the past three yearsDrek717 said:
2) OPS+ is league adjusted, still reflects a consistent decline from an early peak
3) Three straight years of decline isn't volatility, it's a trend
EDIT: and Sandoval is nothing like Beltre.
Gotta say I share Foulkey Reese's reaction in that thread: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/35481-byrd-tipping-pitches-updated-with-video/?p=1855999budcrew08 said:
Sandoval will make his final decision today, his agent just informed me.
https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/536901802294517760
https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/536901802294517760
As far as Hanley moving to left is concerned the Dodgers might have known this was the right move for him but their roster and contracts situation made a position move an impossibility. Manny made the transition from right to left when he joined the Sox. If Hanley has a shortstops arm he has enough arm to play left.Drek717 said:
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal 2m2 minutes ago
Rejected suitors don’t always get called in these situations, though it is common courtesy.
Rejected suitors don’t always get called in these situations, though it is common courtesy.
Looking across his entire career, 2009 and 2011 seem like obvious flukes to me. 2009 and 2011 had high BABIPs (.350, and .320) and high HR/FB rates (14% and 16%). 2010 was closer to his career averages in terms of BABIP, HR/FB.maufman said:
What objective decline has anyone really noted? His peripherals have been fairly flat over the past three years, and the 30 point drop in power can be explained by the fact that power is dropping across the entire league; which his why adjusted statistics like wRC+ show no real decline.
I'll agree that the perceived "decline" of Sandoval over the past three years is driven by comps to bad-body guys and not really in the data itself. Likewise, the perception of Sandoval as a power-hitter who strikes out a lot is also driven by comps, and partially his performance when he was 22 and 24. For his career, he's struck out in 13 percent of his at-bats, walks in about 7 percent, and has a career 0.171 ISO.
1. he had his hamate bone removed from both hands in back to back years, one in 2011, the other in 2012. So sure, no need to put any injury/surgery related disclaimers out there for a guy who had back to back surgeries known for robbing power for one plus calendar years.BarrettsHiddenBall said:
2. His OPS numbers were .789, .758, .739. That isn't decline, that is seasonal volatility. Mike Trout dropped .050 OPS points to a mere .939 last season, is it the beginning of the end for Mike Trout? Also, what is the suggested reason for Sandoval's decline? His weight? At 28 when he just had a very strong May through October? Strikes me as mining the numbers looking for reasons.
3. Why is he nothing like Beltre? They have nearly identical slash lines for their careers including Beltre's huge last 5 years. Both were young raw talent 3Bs who broke in playing in massive parks out west. Both had a couple huge seasons early on, flashing peak potential, then settled in to a sustained run of ~.700-.750 OPS (Sandoval's seasons generally being better). Beltre broke through when moving to the AL and smaller parks. The chance that Sandoval does the same at a younger age should be acknowledged if we're going to dwell on the potential that his weight makes him break down in his early 30's.
DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
Why are you assuming they're done?
maufman said:
It's not worth the time to answer this exhaustively, but be assured that the answer is "many." Starting with Hank Aaron and Derek Jeter.
I mean, Reggie Jackson had his best season at age 23 and the Yankees found some use for him at 32 in 1978 as I recall.
Besides, we don't know what is the best season of Pablo Sandoval's career yet.
HOF Gammo just doing his thing
It is unlikely Ramirez would play shortstop. He has been a backup plan for Sandoval returning to the Giants. Or Sandoval could sign, Hanley could move to left field and Yoenis Cespedes could be traded for pitching. Or either Ramirez or Sandoval—whose left-handed bat is important given that Ortiz is their only other left-handed threat—could play first base and Mike Napoli could be traded. And if both Sandoval and Ramirez were to sign, they could go back and forth between defense and DH after David Ortiz retires and be models for statues that will be erected on Yawkey Way and on Tom Menino Plaza.
http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-hanley-red-sox-reunion-and-free-agent-rumblings-around-the-league/
It is unlikely Ramirez would play shortstop. He has been a backup plan for Sandoval returning to the Giants. Or Sandoval could sign, Hanley could move to left field and Yoenis Cespedes could be traded for pitching. Or either Ramirez or Sandoval—whose left-handed bat is important given that Ortiz is their only other left-handed threat—could play first base and Mike Napoli could be traded. And if both Sandoval and Ramirez were to sign, they could go back and forth between defense and DH after David Ortiz retires and be models for statues that will be erected on Yawkey Way and on Tom Menino Plaza.
http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-hanley-red-sox-reunion-and-free-agent-rumblings-around-the-league/
Giants fan friend of mine just texted me:
"You'll love him. tough outs in key spots, affable, happy guy. Will thrive with Papi as the King, Panda is a great jester, very happy of lucky. Not sure he is a great King though, his best year was when Posey hurt his knee and team had no chance to catch DBacks. I'm sure my Dad will be calling me soon to call him a traitor, he loved the Panda. I always thought he was the one guy I'd want up in a big spot. Excpet maybe Papi."
"You'll love him. tough outs in key spots, affable, happy guy. Will thrive with Papi as the King, Panda is a great jester, very happy of lucky. Not sure he is a great King though, his best year was when Posey hurt his knee and team had no chance to catch DBacks. I'm sure my Dad will be calling me soon to call him a traitor, he loved the Panda. I always thought he was the one guy I'd want up in a big spot. Excpet maybe Papi."
This is just so fucking stupid.jimbobim said:
Why are we spending $20 million on a first baseman with a .739 OPS? Gammons says "hey, we could just move him to first some day" as if he provides some value there. There have to be easier ways to acquire a left handed bat than that. Hell, we have one right here on the roster in Daniel Nava. I find it inconceivable that anyone looking at this roster post-Hanley says what we need is to drop almost $20 million on an ok at best third baseman when we currently have two starting pitchers. I mean, is there anyone out there who could possibly defend the position that Pablo Sandoval brings more to this team than James Shields - who isn't even my favorite SP acquisition mind you but represents the least of what we could get at that price? I just don't get this at all.
I am so clearly on the other side of this view. There could not be a worse fit for both sides. Sandoval will be miserable in Boston and Sox fans will be very frustrated with him. I hope I am wrong but I don't see how this ends well. I like Pablo, warts and all. Just not in Boston.Clears Cleaver said:
PrometheusWakefield said:
These two posts are just a refusal to possibly view the moves in a positive or realistic light that may not conform to what you thought was going to be the approach or what may be the future result. The off season doesn't end in the next two hours. More moves are coming and I highly doubt Cherington will leave the team in a poor state for either the immediate now or later ...DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
Based on what? Gut feeling? Lack of intestinal fortitude? (His, not yours. I guess.)DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
I think he just really likes home cooking.Toe Nash said:
edit:
Edited to reflect the reason Sox fans will turn on Panda. Whenever he hits a slump, his lack of conditioning is going to drive fans crazy. He's going to have to deal with a lot of negativity. Big guys who crush the ball can pull off the jovial fat boy thing. I don't think Sandoval is that kind of hitter, or ever was.Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt said:
As a NL West resident who watches a lot of Giant games, I am not concerned about Panda's weight. He might not be a great 38 year old, and he might look like Puckett and Gwynn after retirement. But for now through 33 he is athletic with his body type,has always been this way rather than putting on weight, and I think it is 100 percent a non issue over this contract.
What I struggle with is the approach, and I worry that the free swinging approach doesn't age well outside of Vlad. It will also be hard as a fan at individual moments even if his actual value over time is spread. Just as it was painful watching Salvador Perez having no chance against Bumgardner, there will be moments when we all throw things. But when the dust settles, those outs on sliders a foot outside are no more damaging than Adam Dunn watching a fastball strike three.
At 28 Panda has established who he is as a player, and I think that player will be a valuable one over the next five seasons, and the worry about a decline is overstated.
What I struggle with is the approach, and I worry that the free swinging approach doesn't age well outside of Vlad. It will also be hard as a fan at individual moments even if his actual value over time is spread. Just as it was painful watching Salvador Perez having no chance against Bumgardner, there will be moments when we all throw things. But when the dust settles, those outs on sliders a foot outside are no more damaging than Adam Dunn watching a fastball strike three.
At 28 Panda has established who he is as a player, and I think that player will be a valuable one over the next five seasons, and the worry about a decline is overstated.
He is a flawed player who is now a high priced FA acquisition. When his flaws show up, Sandoval will be subject to media and fan scrutiny like he has never seen before. San Francisco is, perhaps the easiest "sports town" in the country. Boston not so much.rodderick said:
Hee Sox Choi said:FYI, Da Meat Hook hit well until age 34.
He's now almost half his old weight
Max Power said:
A panda walks into a café. He orders a sandwich, eats it, then draws a gun and proceeds to fire it at the other patrons.
"Why?" asks the confused, surviving waiter amidst the carnage, as the panda makes towards the exit. The panda produces a badly punctuated wildlife manual and tosses it over his shoulder.
"Well, I'm a panda," he says. "Look it up."
The waiter turns to the relevant entry in the manual and, sure enough, finds an explanation. "Panda. Large black-and-white bear-like mammal, native to China. Eats, shoots and leaves."
Tough media town, true, but let's not get carried away. Every player has flaws. If his flaws "show up" but his strengths do, too, and he basically plays like he has, and maybe a little better given the lineup protection and an uptick in hitter-friendly ballparks, will this rabid fan-base and its media cohort tear him limb to limb or is there maybe a less frantic prediction out there?DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
Edit: it's and its
DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
So why are you expecting people to only react to his flaws? He has virtues as well, do you believe those won't show up, or that the fanbase won't value them as much? He's a character, is protrayed as an easy going guy, has been a big part of multiple World Series, I think people will have a huge amount of goodwill towards him, much more so than they had with Crawford, for instance.
DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
As long as he smiles and plays nice to the media he'll be shielded from criticism. If the writers in the clubhouse think he's a jerk, he'll be ripped to shreds no matter how well he performs. That's usually the way it works in this town.
Dan Roche @RochieWBZ
Sandoval deal is 5 years and 95 million plus a one year club option - #redsox #wbz
Sandoval deal is 5 years and 95 million plus a one year club option - #redsox #wbz
Dan Roche @RochieWBZ
Sandoval deal is 5 years and 95 million plus a one year club option - #redsox #wbz
Sandoval deal is 5 years and 95 million plus a one year club option - #redsox #wbz
Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt said:
"Of course, such a pursuit does leave the Giants thin at third base and on the lookout for offense. One other alternative, Rosenthal tweets, would be to pursue Chase Headley. He characterizes a Headley pursuit as “likely” for San Francisco, should Sandoval depart. The switch-hitting Headley would become the prize of the free agent market at third base, and the Giants would no doubt have competition for his services. The Yankees are said to very much want Headley back, but any club that showed interest in Sandoval could logically have some interest in Headley as well. That would include the Blue Jays and White Sox, although to this point, those matches are speculative on my behalf, as there’s yet to be a firm connection to Headley for either club."
FWIW, from http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
Source: https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/536881923298426880