I’m absolutely sure you meant Scherzer and not Bauer! Nothing should be compared to Bauer!
Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding
- Thread starter jcormjmac
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If the value of a win is $9-10m then he only needs to put up 18-20 wins over 5 years to be worth. 100 innings/year with the same FIP as 2020-2022 would just about do it. He’s averaging ~4 wins/100 innings.
So the Rangers are betting on 2.5 healthy seasons over the next 5. I can see some upside to this deal. If the previous 2 years of injuries have been freak injuries then years 4-5 of this deal could be surplus value years. Even an oft-injured DeGrom could be worth this.
You're assuming that his presence somehow kept them from addressing the problem. (like if they found a of/1b option, they'd have said, "nahh, we can't dump Hernandez). I doubt that's the case.
Something to keep in mind is inflation of the dollar independent of baseball. Manny's $20M salary in 2001, which was so eye-popping then, is the equivalent of about $31M in today's dollars. Salaries have definitely grown but not really by as much as it seems.
Yeah for sure. Crazy that 20M was 20 years ago. Putting it that way, it’s kind of surprising that it’s not currently higher.
The difference from 81 to 2001 was far more exaggerated than 2001 to 21.
Reynolds wants out of PIT. Asking price is going to be very high (three cost-controlled years), but this coming out might lower the asking price a bit.
View: https://twitter.com/byrobertmurray/status/1599102460395945984?s=46&t=6BXtkuNIf49YmQIhQgDTBQ
View: https://twitter.com/byrobertmurray/status/1599102460395945984?s=46&t=6BXtkuNIf49YmQIhQgDTBQ
Reynolds is a good player, but he's not CRAZY good.
2021: .302/.390/.522/.912, 145 ops+, 6.0 bWAR (very good)
2020: .262/.345/.461/.807, 126 ops+, 2.9 bWAR (good, but not crazy good)
I mean don't get me wrong - he'd instantly be the Sox' best outfielder and I'd love to have him, but no way am I wanting to give up Mayer or Bello for him. Casas maybe, only because I think you can more easily solve that issue adequately. But this idea that the Sox ought to move multiple of those guys for him is insane. (I think that was floated upthread)
2021: .302/.390/.522/.912, 145 ops+, 6.0 bWAR (very good)
2020: .262/.345/.461/.807, 126 ops+, 2.9 bWAR (good, but not crazy good)
I mean don't get me wrong - he'd instantly be the Sox' best outfielder and I'd love to have him, but no way am I wanting to give up Mayer or Bello for him. Casas maybe, only because I think you can more easily solve that issue adequately. But this idea that the Sox ought to move multiple of those guys for him is insane. (I think that was floated upthread)
Bryan Reynolds and Hunter Renfroe had the exact same OPS last year(.807). He seems like a good but not great player. I would not trade any of Casas, Bello, or Mayer for him. Mayer is the 7th best prospect in all of baseball according to MLB.com. I think he is more valuable than 3 years of Reynolds. Does Reynolds on this roster next season really move the needle all that much?
edit: Why not just sign Nimmo, Conforto, or Haniger? Haniger had a 6.5bWAR season as a 27 year old(Reynolds had 6 bWAR as a 26 year old). I don't think the guy is a guaranteed superstar or anything. Hernandez is a good defensive CF, I feel like we would be better served investing resources in a power hitting RF/LF than a CF that is solid but not exceptional on defense and offense.
edit: Why not just sign Nimmo, Conforto, or Haniger? Haniger had a 6.5bWAR season as a 27 year old(Reynolds had 6 bWAR as a 26 year old). I don't think the guy is a guaranteed superstar or anything. Hernandez is a good defensive CF, I feel like we would be better served investing resources in a power hitting RF/LF than a CF that is solid but not exceptional on defense and offense.
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From a guy who tracks our prospects...
View: https://twitter.com/SPChrisHatfield/status/1599116846350815233
View: https://twitter.com/SPChrisHatfield/status/1599116846350815233
I don’t see a great match here; Pirates will surely be looking for some top line pitching, and the Sox really don’t have that to spare. Mayer seems key to the teams future, plus the Pirates already have Cruz. I also doubt Cherington wants to go out of his way to help the Sox.
Absolutely not. He’s good, not great.
Would you trade Mayer for three years of Verdugo? Because he and Reynolds have the same expected wOBA over the last two years.
Just sign Haniger.
2021-22 expected vs. actual wOBA:
Verdugo: .329 va. .319
Reynolds: .329 vs. .349
Haniger: .328 vs. .319
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They had the same xwOBA last year (.329). It wasnt close in 2021 (beyond the fact that Reynolds is a much better fielder to the point that they probably arent really comparable players):
Verdugo - .342
Reynolds - .386 (same as wOBA)
Reynold's 2021 was legitimately excellent and he looked like a borderline elite player coming into his late 20s; then he was just merely good in 2022. I wouldn't send Mayer out for him unless they were really sure they could lock up both Devers and Xander. If not, I dont see how it moves the needle enough to sell off the future value.
Can we stop with this nonsense? Ben is going to do what’s best for the Pirates. Period. If the Sox make the best offer in his judgment he’s going to take it. They do not carry these kinds of grudges.
Another problem with giving up premium talent for Reynolds is that he's really not an elite defensive outfielder. Over his career he's +7 DRS, -2.4 UZR in LF and -16 DRS, -7.1 UZR in CF. The fact that he's only played 241 innings in his career in RF, combined with scouting reports that describe his arm as anywhere from average to below average, says to me he's not a great fit for a roster that could really use an excellent right fielder.
I don't want to hoard prospects, but I don't see Reynolds as a fit for the Red Sox given what he'll cost in a trade. If his best position in Boston would be left field, I feel like there's much better value out there.
I don't want to hoard prospects, but I don't see Reynolds as a fit for the Red Sox given what he'll cost in a trade. If his best position in Boston would be left field, I feel like there's much better value out there.
I would happily trade for Reynolds, but the trade would have to look something like:
One of York or Romero + Mata + Lugo.
Trade from depth and clear some 40 man space (Mata).
I like all 4 of the names listed and could see that trade working really well for the Pirates but also feel that there's enough depth around those players that trading them makes sense.
One of York or Romero + Mata + Lugo.
Trade from depth and clear some 40 man space (Mata).
I like all 4 of the names listed and could see that trade working really well for the Pirates but also feel that there's enough depth around those players that trading them makes sense.
Sorry to offend you- just suggesting we aren’t getting a Kevin McHale Garnett, Jim Beattie Pedro or Jeter Stanton deal here. YMMV. Cherington will surely to get the best deal he can and given the Sox system and lack of expendable prospects that match what the Pirates need; it probably won’t be them.
What's striking to me about Reynolds is just how drastically his plate skills and defensive metrics tanked last year, despite the physical tools (exit velo, sprint speed, arm strength) appearing to hold steady. Being stuck in Pittsburgh alone is enough to speculate if a player is a good "change of scenery" candidate. And when I look at how much his chase and whiff rates degraded in one year, combined with his OAA going from one of the best to one of the words, I wonder if he just struggled to mentally lock in last season.
I will note that his 2019 and 2020 Statcasts look a bit more like 2022 in terms of the chase/whiff issues (though not nearly as bad), but 2019 was his rookie season and 2020 is such a hard year to take away for anyone.
I will note that his 2019 and 2020 Statcasts look a bit more like 2022 in terms of the chase/whiff issues (though not nearly as bad), but 2019 was his rookie season and 2020 is such a hard year to take away for anyone.
Eh I don't offend easily.
But what you just said is a far cry from the prior post. Not doing the Sox any favors <not => refusing to deal with them.And yeah I agree this is not for the Sox. Though I'm sure Cashman will try his usual four Fangraphs over-hyped quarters (or dimes) for a dollar deal.
Bryan Reynolds is a very good player with a very favorable service set up.
But he’s an ancillary player on a championship team. You have to have those guys, but you don’t give up a talent like Mayer to get it.
They’ll be in the mix without question. But I see striking ground coming from a deep package within the second tier of the system. Beyond that he just isn’t someone who moves the needle enough.
The other part of any significant prospect package is what happens at short.
But he’s an ancillary player on a championship team. You have to have those guys, but you don’t give up a talent like Mayer to get it.
They’ll be in the mix without question. But I see striking ground coming from a deep package within the second tier of the system. Beyond that he just isn’t someone who moves the needle enough.
The other part of any significant prospect package is what happens at short.
This is where I’m at. I also wouldn’t give up Casas, as I think he’s going to reach his 2021 Portland level during his cost-controlled years. Which, with good 1B defense, is as valuable as Reynolds, for more years. A multi-player deal headlined by Yorke and/or Rafaela? Ok…
Right. “Ancillary,” in the J.D. Drew sense.
Agreed. While not a proven commodity yet, if Casas is who we hope that he is you've created one hole to fill another. Considering Casas won't be a FA until '29 we have to ask if it makes sense for the Sox to move him for 3 years of Reynolds. Reynolds might be a good get, but not at that cost.
Right. If you have Reynolds penciled behind Devers, Correa, and Story you are cooking with gas. But the larger point of not giving out cornerstone prospects for non cornerstone players still stands.
I mean it’s easy to forget in retrospect, because Jefferson never outgrew the habit of only trying at the aspects of the game he liked, but it was legitimately the best offer that the T’wolves got for Garnett. Fat Andy Bynum was the only other offer, and he was a slug. His biggest contribution to the Lakers was jumping on Kendrick Perkins’s back and breaking him. I guess that he was also the key piece in the Dwight Howard trade, but that deal ended up wrecking everyone involved (the Magic ended up with the best player in that deal, Vuvecic, not that it did them any good).
I don't know if your proposed deal is enough to get it done for Reynolds, but I completely agree that these players are the limits of the kind of prospect package I'd be comfortable with the Sox dealing. Perhaps I'd stretch just a bit more and include Rafaela instead of Romero if the Pirates or another trade partner demanded it, but giving up anything more than that really just puts the Sox right back where they were when it comes to the minor league system.
Jen McCaffery did a column in the Athletic yesterday of Red Sox trade ideas and Bryan Reynolds was the first one she did. She proposed Reynolds to Boston for Mata, Rafaela, and John Schreiber. She went back and forth with Rob Biertempfel, the Pirates writer, and he seemed to think this package would be intriguing for Pittsburgh, but ultimately not the best package you could get for Reynolds due to the uncertainty of Mata and the lavcck of another elite position player prospect. So do you put somebody like Blaze Jordan in there instead of Schrieber?
Her other proposals were the following
--Reese McGuire and Connor Seabold to Minnesota for Max Kepler and RH reliever Griffin Jax
--Connor Seabold and Jarren Duran to Cincinnati for Buck Farmer
--Bobby Dalbec, Reese McGuire, and Brandon Walter to Arizona for Jake McCarthy
--Bobby Dalbec, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Nick Yorke to Oakland for Sean Murphy
https://theathletic.com/3958926/2022/12/02/red-sox-trade-scenarios/
Her other proposals were the following
--Reese McGuire and Connor Seabold to Minnesota for Max Kepler and RH reliever Griffin Jax
--Connor Seabold and Jarren Duran to Cincinnati for Buck Farmer
--Bobby Dalbec, Reese McGuire, and Brandon Walter to Arizona for Jake McCarthy
--Bobby Dalbec, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Nick Yorke to Oakland for Sean Murphy
https://theathletic.com/3958926/2022/12/02/red-sox-trade-scenarios/
I would not trade Mayer for Reynolds. Mayer is the type of prospect you trade for someone like Corbin Burnes or as the centerpiece for the next Soto trade or something.
That McCaffrey trade proposal seems a little weak from PIT’s perspective. I could see something like Rafaela + Houck + Mata working. Maybe add a lower minors guy as a sweetener.
That McCaffrey trade proposal seems a little weak from PIT’s perspective. I could see something like Rafaela + Houck + Mata working. Maybe add a lower minors guy as a sweetener.
Agreed. I can't part with Mayer unless I am getting a superstar player in return. Reynolds is good, but not that guy.
I am usually not this guy, but it really seems to me that Reynolds is a perfect fit for the NYY, and they can probably put together a pretty strong trade proposal. But I defer to @jon abbey
Yep, I totally get it if the Pirates refuse. The trouble with Reynolds is the most attractive thing about him is the amount of club control. He's a nice player, but you really kick yourself after if you trade a premier prospect and they pan out for a guy who is merely a second or third piece to the offense. Is the upgrade from Verdugo with the cost? I don't think so. But Reynolds does have a ton of value.
100% you trade Blaze, here. Jordan is an intriguing prospect. He has some red flags though. Could he be a middle of the order bat? Sure. But it's more likely he doesn't come anywhere close to that. I like Blaze a lot, but he's absolutely not a barrier for a trade here. What do we expect him to be offensively? If he develops into a Bryan Reynolds type hitter that's probably like a 90% outcome for him.
The trouble is when you trade a guy like Mayer, Casas or Bleis, who are all far more likely to be as good as Reynolds due to all around game (Mayer, Bleis) or proximity and excellent track record (Casas).
I'd like to hold off on trading Blaze but if he nets 3 years of Reynolds, I'd be willing to do that. Not so much with Mayer.
Blaze isn’t even a top 100 prospect though, he’s not going to be the centerpiece of a deal. I suspect you’d have to include at least one of Casas, Bello, and Mayer; and the Sox kind of need all three players. I don’t really see the Sox as having the top shelf pitching prospects or major league ready players to pull off any big deals.
You aren't going to include any of the 3 you named for Reynolds and Pittsburgh shouldn't expect that. The way the system is now guys like Miguel Blais and Rafaela are prospects good enough to be the centerpiece of this kind of deal. Casas/Mayer/Bello are saved for that Juan Soto-type superstar who lands on the market.
Eh, I think he’s going to cost more than he’s worth and I think Cashman is pretty determined to keep his horde of position player prospects if at all possible. MIA and TOR make more sense.
As much as I love Xander and everything he's brought to the team over the last several years, I absolutely would not want to get into a 9-team bidding war over him, esp. under the assumption that he has to change positions a third of the way into his contract.
My pie-in-the-sky scenario would be:
1. Sign a stopgap SS for a year
2. Break Rafaela in as the starting SS/backup CF
3. Move Rafaela to full-time CF when Mayer is ready to come up
As you can tell, I'm a little higher on Ceddanne than most; I certainly wouldn't include him as a throw-in to trade for the likes of Reynolds or Murphy.
My pie-in-the-sky scenario would be:
1. Sign a stopgap SS for a year
2. Break Rafaela in as the starting SS/backup CF
3. Move Rafaela to full-time CF when Mayer is ready to come up
As you can tell, I'm a little higher on Ceddanne than most; I certainly wouldn't include him as a throw-in to trade for the likes of Reynolds or Murphy.
Yeah they had their shot last fall to extend him, now it's probably too late unless you break the bank which I don't think they will or should do. It is what it is.
Extend Devers and use stop gaps until Mayer is ready.
The Marlins will listen on trades for almost anyone except Alcantara. They are looking for hitters.
Miguel Rojas is a good defender and passable in a Seabass 2.0 sort of way, but I really hope it doesn’t come to that.
If Bogaerts’ contract is creeping well up over $200 million, just sign Correa.
I swear all this front office does is actively try to look worse and worse by the day. They say things like Xander is our top priority, we’re actively trying to keep him, people are fired up about what’s coming. But their actions tell you the opposite.
Why dont we wait until he signs before getting the ptichforks out?
this info could be coming from boras who is know for this type of thing.