With the money being thrown around now, Correa can probably get the security of a long-term contract with opt-outs. That's a better bet to hedge against injury.
Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding
- Thread starter jcormjmac
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I think with SF, MIN and probably CHC after him, he should easily end up over $300M.
I mean, how much risk is it REALLY? A 3 year deal for $40m per year nets him a hundred and twenty million dollars. I get that he could sing a long term deal and make more. And I'm not suggesting he shouldn't go for more. He's a FA and has that right and good for him. I don't begrudge him that at all. I'm just saying that it's risky to start your own business knowing that if you fail, you're in huge debt with no easy way out and you've got mouths to feed. A guy who has already made $61m and would add $120m from this short term deal.....isn't risking much of anything really.
He’s risking $180 -$240M. If he didn’t want a long term deal he could’ve just continued on his Twins contract.
If the Sox want the only premier SS and RH bat left on the market, they’re going to have to play in the deep end of the pool. A Correa contract that oh so conveniently ends as Mayer is ready is a nice fantasy, but it’s not walking through that door.
This looks right to me. Who knows when or if he will ever have more back problems down the road. He's been mostly healthy the last two years, so I think now is the time to lock down the longest contract he can get. In his case, I think something around $300 million now, even if it is winds up a little below that mark, is way better than $120m for the next three years given the health concerns that may always hang over him.
I think there are more teams still around willing to spend big than there are elite-ish players available to spend on. We'll probably know soon enough.
I get that he'd rather have a deal worth $280m than $120m. It goes without saying. But I'm wondering if this calculation makes sense:
Option 1: 10 years, $280 million
Option 2: 3 years, $120 million + 7 years, $245 million (because three years from now long term deals will have a higher AAV than they do now) which would total 10 years, $365 million
Something along those lines. It's entirely possible that he could make a LOT more money this way than if he signs a long-term deal now. The likelihood of him being injured to the point where he gets virtually no contract three years from now is probably pretty small, and again, if that happens, he can console himself with a hundred and twenty million dollars for 3 years' worth of work, on top of what he's already made in his career. He won't be hurting for money, ever.
I am with you all in that it's not likely he goes this route. I just wonder what a 3-year deal would need to look like for him to make this kind of calculation and think, man, I could potentially make a TON more money doing it this way.
So based on that interview, it sounds like Bloom wants to make trades without giving up significant prospects and wants to sign free agents, but not to long deals. Ultimately, a continuation of the strategy of the last few years- which to be fair, worked pretty well once.
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I mean, while I agree that he's almost certainly going to sign a 10+ year contract for $300m+ & maybe even have an opt out or two as well, wanting a short term deal would not make him choose to opt in with the Twins. He is turning down 2/$70.2m for 3/$120m in this hypothetical, which is clearly a net gain for him.
If Correa can only get a 3 year deal, why do you think he can get a much longer one three years from now? I suspect he remains unsigned because he’s asking for too much. I’d he doesn’t get it, I imagine he will take a similar deal to the one he had last year with an opt out after a year:
I wouldn’t read him as what *is true or is happening* but instead as what the players’ side wants out there. He seems to be pretty looped in with the Caribbean guys.
It just so happened that the rumors of Bogaerts returning to Boston were being used to goad SD into an exorbitant offer.
Nobody is saying that Correa can only get a 3 year deal. I'm saying that the upside of doing what I suggest is that he ends up making a LOT MORE MONEY than if he signs a long term deal now.
Of course it comes with risks, but again, even if it all blows up in his face, he walks away from baseball having made more than 180 million dollars.
3/150 might get him to think about it, dunno if Boras would be happy about it though.
He onto gets a LOT MORE MONEY if he can get a long term deal in three years. Let’s say he can get Boagerts deal (11/280) now. 3/120 now is only a good deal if he can get 8/160+ three years from now. Maybe he can, but seems kind of risky to me. Seems like he’s probably going to end up with something like 11/325. Swanson may be a guy willing to take a shorter term deal to prove his one great year wasn’t a fluke, but only if he can’t get better.
Are you sure? I thought he was the one who had him getting big bucks, but not necessarily from the Sox.
Fair enough. If we have room for Heyman, I suppose there should be room for Mariano.
I thought he was part of that crowd. He had the ambiguous fist bump with arms of cash, but I thought that was after one touting X to the Sox. Maybe not.
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Edit: Perhaps you meant the Athletic interview? If so, disregard the above.
Are you referencing the Bradford interview? I just listened to it and didn’t hear him say anything about not giving up significant prospects. I may have simply missed it. At which point did he say or intimate that?
Edit: Perhaps you meant the Athletic interview? If so, disregard the above.
He's a 32 year old that is worth about 1 war a year who has two arb years left. What's the point?
In quite a few ABs I saw last year, Bobby looked uncomfortable at the plate. He'd take a couple of strikes then swing at a slider for #3. I'm not sure just how much of his problem is simply in his head, but if he doesn't improve his pitch recognition, he's not going to be of much value to anyone. So, while I'd like one more roll of the dice, my expectations for him aren't very high.
Short-term, high AAV contracts make sense when you're where the Sox are right now. You don't want to block your prospects, but you need to get better in order to appease the fanbase.
Cooper seems to inexplicably swap between being great or bad vs LHP just about every year. Last year was one of his bad ones (.624 ops against) so if we can agree to get a good one in 2023 I'm interested?
League average for all RHB vs LHP last season was .252/.320/.417. Dalbec was .242/.348/.406 and bad at 1B on top of it. Yes, technically they can do worse, but if his range of outcomes includes “bad defensive 1b who can’t outhit the average RHB against LHP” then they have to do better. He has been better in the past so maybe, but given the defensive issues that still makes for a very very limited player given the downside risk.
Dalbec may be a good player, but he's not going to be a good player with a team with playoff aspirations like the Sox should. You can't put someone streaky and conditional at a spot where the league average hitter is "really good and semi-consistent". You could make a case he'd be fine in a vacuum of conditional circumstances, but those do not exist in the real world.
I'm all for letting folks struggle their way through challenges, but two years is two years. It's time to cut bait. Sned him down to AAA and see if something clicks (low percentage, but that's what AAA is for).
I'm all for letting folks struggle their way through challenges, but two years is two years. It's time to cut bait. Sned him down to AAA and see if something clicks (low percentage, but that's what AAA is for).
i love/hate how Ken just casually drops this at the end of his sox segment on todays podcast
View: https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/1602491846667784194?s=46&t=lTl0GQG1NJtS8RdrAuz6ZA
“It is a different landscape now and we shouldn’t rule anything out,” Bloom said, speaking generally of top-of-the-market contracts. “But we didn’t go into this with the aim of thinking the grass was greener on the other side [in the shortstop market]. I think I was pretty clear about that.
“Obviously players are in different situations, different ages, different market conditions, obviously. So I don’t think we should rule anything out. But [a top-of-the-market shortstop other than Bogaerts] wasn’t how we approached this market coming into it.”
Bloom's comments today shut the door on any Correa possibility for me.
I interpreted the same way. I suspect we’ll see some minor trades or signings but I’d be shocked at a big name.
I know people on here have convinced themselves that Story can't play SS, but Bloom's plan since signing him was to play Story at SS in 2023 barring Story losing a limb or X re-signing for an absurdly low amount.
Also why would Bloom say this? I wouldn’t blink if Correa was in fact their main target this off-season and they sign him today for 12/300
Just spitballing, but there's murmurs that the Mets are shopping Carlos Carrasco. The artcile says likes suitors are teams like the Twins, Royals or five or six more.
New York planning major trade that will alter pitching rotation after Justin Verlander acquisition (msn.com)
New York planning major trade that will alter pitching rotation after Justin Verlander acquisition (msn.com)
I could read that either way. There’d still be facing backlash for signing Correa over Bogaerts for all sorts of legitimate sentimental reasons as well as sentimental reasons disguised as material ones.
These statements could also function as a sort of response to an attack that seems inevitable: why they’d prefer Correa over a more beloved player in Bogaerts. It could be better to get out in front of the story that Bloom “wanted to replace Xander with Correa all along” or whatever.
Not to appease the fanbase, but to get better to win games. I would think that is the point.
And I think it's a bad plan. Story's arm is not suited to play SS every day. He is an elite 2B defensively. If you move him there, you will downgrade 2 positions defensively. It's not something you want to do especially as an organization who supposedly values defense so much.
Here's what I put together on Stripling in November in the "Let's Sign a Starting Pitcher" thread:
Ross Stripling:
RHP, will be 33. 10-4, 3.01 in 134 IP, with a 3.11 FIP, 129 ERA+. Really good year, especially being in the AL East.
Marcel: 8-6, 3.84 in 129 IP.
Steamer: 9-10, 4.31 in 147 IP, 4.24 FIP.
The Athletic says:
From MLB Trade Rumors:
Will Ross go on a break from the Blue Jays?
Jen McCaffrey's guess at his contract:
B-R nickname: Chicken Strip. Should have gone with “Stripper”.
Edit: here's his 2023 ZiPS projection:
7-6, 4.25 ERA in 114 IP, 97 K, 26 BB 100 ERA+
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Another name linked to the Sox off the board:
View: https://twitter.com/byrobertmurray/status/1602693644179443713?s=46&t=Z_QaJtJvGlNtGnfJ4bzM8Q
View: https://twitter.com/byrobertmurray/status/1602693644179443713?s=46&t=Z_QaJtJvGlNtGnfJ4bzM8Q
Blue Jays ZIPS came out yesterday. Ross Stripling is projected for a 100 ERA+, which is league average. :/
Maybe the FA market isn't completely insane. Maybe it's really just Preller and the Rangers splashing out outlier contracts.
2 years, $25 million is pretty much exactly what McCaffrey projected for him in the Athletic back in early November, before all the big signings. For whatever reason, seems like his market didn't change much.
I'm guessing that he really wanted to stay on the west coast and would not be surprised if he turned down a little more from somewhere else.