Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

I get where you're coming from but it's his money. He can hoard it and buy multiple yachts and private islands if he wants. There's clearly a budget and a direction that Bloom is working under. From how I'm reading this... is that Henry sees that up to a certain point of spending, the returns just aren't worth it to go over. Fine. It is what it is and I don't see the point in getting worked up about it and feeling betrayed. Would I like him to spend more... sure. But me screaming at him to sign Devers to whatever he's asking is probably more effective than me posting here about it... and I'm pretty certain that doing that has zero affect on it too.

I'm going to enjoy whatever team the Sox put out there.... my rabid days of Sox fandom is long over. If the team is looking good, I'll stay tuned in longer and more attentively. If they are garbage, I'll probably just check the box scores and move on with my day. They've won 4 WS. More than I could have imagined. I honestly just don't care as much as I used to and am happy for other teams when they win now.

Right, I get what you're saying about Henry's money and he has the right to spend it the way he wants to. But isn't there an unwritten contract between team owner and fan: we give you money, you give us a good team. I mean, I think that's the assumption that we've all been working under for a long time. Even if Henry spends over the limit, he's going to get realize some profit, no? I don't feel betrayed so much, I just think that if he's not going to try his best to put a winner on the field, what's the point? And if he's looking to save money, this plan is nothing but wallpaper. What's going to happen in a few years when players want their money? Is it this the same cycle all over again? Because honestly, that sucks.

Like I've said before, I'm going to watch the Sox no matter what. The baseball poison is too deep within me and there's nothing I can do about it. But watching shitty baseball for six months, I mean that absolutely blows.

Your post was comprehensive, and I agree with much of what you're saying. This snip is something that jumps out at me.

If you're at the gym, and some 20yo in the station next to you has out his notebook and is reviewing his plan for the day and taking notes and then reps 225 off the floor a few times, you could look at it two ways. You could say "whatever plan that fool is following is the worst, if all it leads to is 225# triples"? Or you could understand that his plan takes time and try to gauge it based on whether he's hitting his milestones or not. Maybe he was at 185# two cycles ago and has made it to 205 and now 225 in ten weeks. Maybe he'll be at 315 or 350 by the end of the year on this plan (not bad for a guy who's 160 himself). Just because he's at 225 now doesn't mean that there is no plan or that the plan is bad.

Understood. But this metaphor assumes that the person doing reps of 225 started at zero, or 100 pounds (whatever). The Sox didn't start at zero. Three years ago from today the Sox had: Betts, Benitendi, Bogaerts, JBJ, Vazquez, Sale and Devers. They were all either in or entering their primes, now the only two players they have are Sale and Devers. Anything that they received from the others have ranged from absolute zero to meh. If the Red Sox started from zero like the person in your example, like if they were an expansion team, then yes; I'd be a bit more patient. But to steal your example, the Sox are like the Rock and now they're struggling to bench 135.

@John Marzano Olympic Hero

Our bottom line disagreement isn't that I GAF about John Henry's bottom line. Most of what you've said is countered by what I put in my $540m post.

The first years of free agent contracts are the best years. If you line those years up with great young talent, you get things like '18 when Price/Sale/JD contracts supplemented a great young core - but then you get the down side after that where you're paying $60m for almost nothing from those guys.

Your solution can be "well just buy MORE players", but not even Steve Cohen is running out a $500m payroll. Cheap players are important because they help you buy expensive players and have a really good team. Cheap players are not important because they save John Henry money. If you have more cheap players coming through the system all the time, you can afford the downside of the later years on those long term deals.

Giving those long-term deals before your infrastructure is built up will just handcuff you later when you have the next albatross contract on your books so you are unlikely to invest in the next big deal.

I'm not sure that's true. You're the one who said that the reason for this infrastructure is to "spit out cheap ball players". There's only a small handful of people on this planet who cares what the players' salaries are: the player, the agents and the people who pay them. And since I can safely assume you're not talking about the player or the agent, you must be talking about the people who pay them, FSG or John Henry. I didn't say anything about "cheap ball players" or anything regarding their salaries.

And I agree with you about how the cheaper players are used to fill in the holes of the more expensive players. But the Sox aren't doing that now, they're stuck in some weird no-man's land. They're going with mostly cheap players (Yoshida, Sale and Devers aside) and are passing on higher priced players for reasons.

Sorry, I could research this myself, but I have seen a lot of people repeat this and I'm wondering, did BOS management ever actually say anything like that in the wake of the Mookie deal?

Did the Sox FO come out and say it? No, at least I don't think so. But when people in the media used this as a talking point, they didn't exactly shy away from it either. Like I don't expect the Sox to come out and say, "No Vacancy for high-priced players. Sorry, not sorry!" but Kennedy and Bloom have made allusions to "doing it what it takes" to sign homegrown free agents and others. They haven't. I guess they can get cute and say, "We didn't explicitly lie to our fans" but fuck the semantics, they sorta did.

This point really resonated with me. There are times when I feel like some folks embrace a certain New England Puritanical approach to sports fandom. A notion that one has to suffer to truly appreciate better times. I mean, there's no Bulgarian gymnastics judge here. We don't get bonus points for higher degrees of difficulty.

I was thinking the other day that there is only one batter in the likely 2023 lineup who's production I feel confident about: Devers. All 8 other spots have some varying amount of uncertainty, from 'who the heck knows' (Yoshida) to 'most likely to be very good' (Story). Same applies to the starting rotation. I can't recall the last time I felt this much uncertainty about so many spots. Even in 2013, where the offseason looked vaguely similar to this one (sign cheap-ish vets to short deals, wait for the prospects to arrive) we still had Ortiz, Pedroia, Ellsbury and Lester as a foundation.

I was thinking about that too. There's such a low confidence level in this team right now and it has to do with both durability and talent.

If:

Sale pitches well and doesn't get hurt and holds up through August and September
Paxton simply pitches
Houck takes to starting
Whitlock takes to starting
The catching duo is able to take on more of a load
Casas can hit (I mean, he better because there's no one behind him)
Arroyo can play every day and produce
Story can throw from short and stay healthy
Yoshida can translate from his talents from the Japanese league to the AL
Kike can do better than his baseline average self
Vedugo can hit for more power
Turner has something left in the tank
Jansen can get the ball to the plate quicker
The bullpen can be better (I think that they will)

Then this team can contend. Probably. I think.

But that's 14 questions (and I don't think I'm being overly pessimistic here) that the Sox have to nail. Otherwise they're absolutely screwed this year. Like 8slim said, this isn't 2013 when you had Ortiz, Pedroia, Lester and Ellsbury. This team is in deep, deep crap if there are injuries (there's really no ifs about this, there's going to be) and no one steps up. It's one of the first season where I have no optimism for this team at all.

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

SSJ and SLT, you're both sort of making my point. You can go cheap on a certain number of bullpen guys and some will stick.
But a) those pitchers need to have a certain profile b) it takes more than one or two offseasons to develop those pitchers.
BPMS was simply listing a grab bag of random bullpen guys and saying they'll perform better than Martin, Barnes, and Schreiber for 10% of the cost. It's not that simple.
However, I do think if there's a Jansen-type who has a proven track record, you spend the money for that dependable anchor.

 

[JM3]

I'm not sure that's true. You're the one who said that the reason for this infrastructure is to "spit out cheap ball players". There's only a small handful of people on this planet who cares what the players' salaries are: the player, the agents and the people who pay them. And since I can safely assume you're not talking about the player or the agent, you must be talking about the people who pay them, FSG or John Henry. I didn't say anything about "cheap ball players" or anything regarding their salaries.

And I agree with you about how the cheaper players are used to fill in the holes of the more expensive players. But the Sox aren't doing that now, they're stuck in some weird no-man's land. They're going with mostly cheap players (Yoshida, Sale and Devers aside) and are passing on higher priced players for reasons.

Yes. If we go with the assumption that FSG is not willing to pay $500m in salary, that matters. If they are willing to pay $500m + luxury taxes, it does not matter. If they are going to spend $X, I want those $X to be spent on the best team possible. Would I want $X to be higher than whatever $X is? Sure, it's not my money. But that's not the framework the front office is working under.

There's a huge difference between young pre-Arb players making the minimum, & players like Kluber/Turner who cost $10m each. If you have those guys in the system, you can save $18m & replace them with Player A/Player B & spend that $18m on something else. That's where the impact players come in. When you have to pay $10m for something that should cost you $800k, that's not a good allocation of $X, but it's necessary due to the long fallow period from the system.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

SSJ and SLT, you're both sort of making my point. You can go cheap on a certain number of bullpen guys and some will stick.
But a) those pitchers need to have a certain profile b) it takes more than one or two offseasons to develop those pitchers.
BPMS was simply listing a grab bag of random bullpen guys and saying they'll perform better than Martin, Barnes, and Schreiber for 10% of the cost. It's not that simple.
However, I do think if there's a Jansen-type who has a proven track record, you spend the money for that dependable anchor.

Not for nothing, but I agree totally in terms of spending on a dependable closer. I've said as such - and mentioned that I actually really like the Jansen deal. For middle relief, I think a good GM can / should be able to go very cheap, rather in terms of finding guys from the relative scrap heap or by bringing up whomever you have in AAA that probably isn't going to be good enough to start.

I continue to use Tampa because a) they're in our division; b) that's where Bloom came from; and c) we seem to be more closely following they way they've built a roster than the Yankees, Dodgers, etc.

Of the guys I've mentioned from their top 10 in bWAR in their bullpen from 2022, Adam was signed as a free agent on 3/17/22; Beeks was acquired in 2018 for Eovaldi (when TB made the decision to sell even though they finished with more than 90 wins); Raley signed as a FA on 11/30/21; Wisler was acquired on 6/21/21 for Michael Plassmeyer (I have no idea whom is equivalent in our system, but we're not talking Brayan Bello...); Shawn Armstrong signed on 5/4/22 (literally unemployed during the season); Luke Bard signed on 3/24/22 (available for nothing during the end of spring training); Garrett Cleavinger was acquired on 8/1/21 for German Tapia (again, no idea our equivalent but not exactly Casas); and just for fun the next guy was Ralph Garza was selected off waivers (from the Red Sox no less) on 4/7/22.

I'm not saying that I personally could find guys off the scrap heap - I'm saying the good GMs - such as one in our division that we're apparently trying to emulate do just that. That's why I just went alphabetically to show an example. Sure Fairbanks came up from their system, and Chargois you needed to give up Castillo, but that's a lot of bullpen production for pretty much nothing in terms of cost. I'm not asking him to "just develop McClanahan and Baz" but asking him to find his version of those middle relief pitchers is something a good GM should be able to do - at least if we want to act like Bloom is building something sustainable like Tampa Bay, not to mention teams that have actually won titles.

Again, I'm TOTALLY on board with the $16m for Jansen, whether it works or not. It's the $9.5M to Barnes, the $8.5m to Martin, the $2m to Rodriguez and spending anything at all on Brasier and Taylor types that I'm complaining about. I'd much rather have that ~$22m spent on Jean Segura and Michael Wacha (not to mention Xander Bogaerts or Carlos Correa), for instance, and find guys off the street (whom fit a profile - like those mentioned above) along with kids from Worcester.

 

[scottyno]

Again, I'm TOTALLY on board with the $16m for Jansen, whether it works or not. It's the $9.5M to Barnes, the $8.5m to Martin, the $2m to Rodriguez and spending anything at all on Brasier and Taylor types that I'm complaining about. I'd much rather have that ~$22m spent on Jean Segura and Michael Wacha (not to mention Xander Bogaerts or Carlos Correa), for instance, and find guys off the street (whom fit a profile - like those mentioned above) along with kids from Worcester.

The money they committed to Rodriguez and Martin doesn't/didn't do anything to prevent them from signing any of those 4 guys

 

[nvalvo]

• I'm about 90% with you on bullpen construction. The great bullpen pitchers that can put it together for sustained success are few and far between. It seems one of the best strategies to building a pen is utilizing guys like Walter, Winckowski, Seabold, Crawford... prospects likely not quite good enough to be starters that have good K rates , low BB rates but only two plus pitches, and then failed starters easily picked off other teams. It's nice to have a prime era Papelbon to anchor the pen for several years but I'm not terribly in favor of paying high FA contracts for those guys.
  I wouldn't be surprised if any of the 4 prospects mentioned end up in the pen and outperform Jansen, etc....

• 
  
  I’m not arguing with you, but Papelbon *was* a starting pitching prospect who broke in in the bullpen, and found that relieving fit both his temperament and his arsenal.

 

[BaseballJones]

Quick sidetrack based on @nvalvo 's last post: Sometimes we forget just how unbelievably good Papelbon was. Look at this 4-year stretch from 2006-2009:

11-10, 1.74 era, 151 sv, 0.92 whip, 10.6 k/9 (in an era when guys weren't striking out nearly as much as they are now)

ERAs those four years: 0.92, 1.85, 2.34, 1.85.

WHIP those four years: 0.78, 0.77, 0.95, and (horrors!) 1.15.

K/9 those four years: 9.9, 13.0, 10.0, 10.1.

Dude was absolutely unbelievable. On top of that, he was absolutely unreal in the playoffs: 18 g, 27.0 ip, 7 sv, 1.00 era, 0.81 whip, 7.7 k/9.

He went 17 straight playoff games to open his career without allowing a single run. All 3 runs he allowed in his entire playoff life came in his very last playoff appearance, in game 3 against the Angels in 2009. Before that, he threw 26 straight innings without allowing a single run in the playoffs.

Mind-blowing.

 

[jcormjmac]

Probably posted this wrong - but --
Red Sox-Marlins Trade Appears Highly Likely Based On Recent Reports - could we poss have a rumor?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/red-sox-marlins-trade-appears-highly-likely-based-on-recent-reports/ar-AA15WdUp?cvid=94111b4b0b154b7694f8abe7a4799da8


Between Edward Cabrera, Pablo López and Trevor Rodgers, the Marlins are loaded with young pitching talent. It has been reported all offseason that Miami would be willing to part ways with at least one of their young fireballers in exchange for improved offense.

Jackson noted that Miami is interested in both first baseman Triston Casas and super utility prospect Ceddanne Rafaela -- who rank No. 2 and No. 3 in the Red Sox's farm system according to MLB Pipeline, respectively.

It was also noted a couple of weeks earlier that Marlins middle infielder Joey Wendle was one potential trade target for Boston according to The Athletic's Chad Jennings.

Boston is in desperate need of a middle infielder, lacks pitching, and has a plethora of young position players at the top of their farm system.

Miami has a serviceable middle infielder available, a plethora of young controllable starters but lacks the offensive firepower to be competitive.

A trade between the Red Sox and Marlins should be a slam dunk at some point in the offseason.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Probably posted this wrong - but --
Red Sox-Marlins Trade Appears Highly Likely Based On Recent Reports - could we poss have a rumor?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/red-sox-marlins-trade-appears-highly-likely-based-on-recent-reports/ar-AA15WdUp?cvid=94111b4b0b154b7694f8abe7a4799da8


Between Edward Cabrera, Pablo López and Trevor Rodgers, the Marlins are loaded with young pitching talent. It has been reported all offseason that Miami would be willing to part ways with at least one of their young fireballers in exchange for improved offense.

Jackson noted that Miami is interested in both first baseman Triston Casas and super utility prospect Ceddanne Rafaela -- who rank No. 2 and No. 3 in the Red Sox's farm system according to MLB Pipeline, respectively.

It was also noted a couple of weeks earlier that Marlins middle infielder Joey Wendle was one potential trade target for Boston according to The Athletic's Chad Jennings.

Boston is in desperate need of a middle infielder, lacks pitching, and has a plethora of young position players at the top of their farm system.

Miami has a serviceable middle infielder available, a plethora of young controllable starters but lacks the offensive firepower to be competitive.

A trade between the Red Sox and Marlins should be a slam dunk at some point in the offseason.

This is now four days we've had this article (or articles citing the original) posted in this thread. And yet there's still no actual substance to it. It's one guy's speculation.

 

[astrozombie]

This is now four days we've had this article (or articles citing the original) posted in this thread. And yet there's still no actual substance to it. It's one guy's speculation.

We don't agree on everything, but I do agree with you here. It seems like every other story about it references this article, which is speculation.

 

[YTF]

Probably posted this wrong - but --
Red Sox-Marlins Trade Appears Highly Likely Based On Recent Reports - could we poss have a rumor?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/red-sox-marlins-trade-appears-highly-likely-based-on-recent-reports/ar-AA15WdUp?cvid=94111b4b0b154b7694f8abe7a4799da8


Between Edward Cabrera, Pablo López and Trevor Rodgers, the Marlins are loaded with young pitching talent. It has been reported all offseason that Miami would be willing to part ways with at least one of their young fireballers in exchange for improved offense.

Jackson noted that Miami is interested in both first baseman Triston Casas and super utility prospect Ceddanne Rafaela -- who rank No. 2 and No. 3 in the Red Sox's farm system according to MLB Pipeline, respectively.

It was also noted a couple of weeks earlier that Marlins middle infielder Joey Wendle was one potential trade target for Boston according to The Athletic's Chad Jennings.

Boston is in desperate need of a middle infielder, lacks pitching, and has a plethora of young position players at the top of their farm system.

Miami has a serviceable middle infielder available, a plethora of young controllable starters but lacks the offensive firepower to be competitive.

A trade between the Red Sox and Marlins should be a slam dunk at some point in the offseason.

For the past 6-7 weeks your postings have been exclusively in this thread. My assumption (possibly misguided) is that you have a genuine interest in this topic and have been following the thread. With that in mind, my question to you is how do you come here and post this as if it's it's some sort of revelation?

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Since the Miami trade article keeps getting posted, I'll link (or re-link I guess) Speier's Glob article from yesterday that explains why it's unlikely:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/01/03/sports/triston-casas-marlins-red-sox/

But the likelihood of Casas, a South Florida native who was heavily scouted by the Marlins in 2018 before being taken by the Sox in the first round that year, being dealt to Miami for a starter is low.
The Sox have long seen Casas as a future middle-of-the-order mainstay, a view that limited their interest in Freddie Freeman as a free agent in the 2021-22 offseason and that continues to inform the team’s roster-building.
Had the Sox viewed Casas as a trade chip, they would have held onto Eric Hosmer rather than releasing the veteran, who would have cost them only the big-league minimum.

The article also notes that Rafaela is expected to start the year in AAA:

The Marlins are seeking to upgrade their big league lineup in any deal involving their starters. Casas fits that bill. A Sox prospect such as center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela, who is expected to open 2023 in Triple A, would not.

If Rafaela hits well for the first couple months in Worcester, he could be a midseason internal option for either CF, SS, or 2B.

From the same article, an actual sort-of-rumor: the Sox are "open to" "potentially" dealing Houck.

The Sox are open to dealing a big league pitcher (potentially including Tanner Houck), but that profile isn’t a great match for Miami’s needs — unless Houck or other Red Sox trade candidates could be dealt elsewhere for a position player.

 

[cantor44]

I always thought the expression was "making do, " so I looked it up.
Here's one take on it: https://grammarist.com/usage/make-do-make-due/


Anyway, to your actual point, yes, I believe that there is evidence here and there that the current modus operandi of the Boston Red Sox is to Make Do. And tinker a little. And wait for youngsters to grow up. Sort of like your average family. (P.S. This point is consistent with my position of having given up on this being a rumors thread.)

Yes, "make do." I am error prone, deal with a combo of dyslexia and being very busy so can only do drive by posts, so sometimes rushed. I stand corrected.

 

[jon abbey]

Pretty sure this guy works for the Angels, despite being anonymous:

View: https://twitter.com/lionintexas10/status/1610698154554580993?s=46&t=c4V-hi_lGVS0BrF-YMcCqg

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Pretty sure this guy works for the Angels, despite being anonymous:

View: https://twitter.com/lionintexas10/status/1610698154554580993?s=46&t=c4V-hi_lGVS0BrF-YMcCqg

I'll take an autographed Trout baseball for getting Brazier away from Cora.

 

[Bigpupp]

Oh, heck yes

 

[geoflin]

"You're only offering us a bag of balls?"
"Yes"
"Done"

 

[JM3]

Did a quick skim of Brasier stuff & came across this from late November (1 realistic trade target for the Angels from each team)...

Boston Red Sox trade target: Ryan Brasier

Ryan Brasier is a guy the Red Sox were considering non-tendering at the deadline but opted to keep. He struggled last season posting a 5.98 ERA in 68 appearances but got incredibly unlucky, suggested by his 3.61 FIP.

He walked just 1.9 batters per nine while striking out 9.2/9. The 1.3 HR/9 isn't horrible either. Where Brasier really went wrong was the .335 BAbip opponents had against him. I'm confident he can be a solid middle reliever if the Angels were to acquire him. With Boston considering non-tendering him and being in the final year of team control, he'd be cheap to acquire as well.

https://halohangout.com/posts/1-realistic-angels-trade-target-from-each-mlb-team-01gjttj91392/3

 

[Rice4HOF]

Unclear on whether we’re supposed to post rumors or not on here? Anyhow a completely non-credible report about a Devers extension agreement FWIW View: https://twitter.com/hlebronjr/status/1610734188034166784?s=46&t=PHE94zOrPyb8qrQ2ot8W2A

 

[TimScribble]

He does state it’s a rumor and not an announcement in the full post it looks like:

View: https://twitter.com/calloutslfgm/status/1610735616978714645?s=46&t=l53QtInEIDwJL-caLaT0hQ

 

[chrisfont9]

Heyman and Cotillo both apparently reported today that there have been "steady" talks with Devers about an extension. Also doesn't prove anything, but at least it's consistent.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

The numbers certainly seem like what it would take. Other than that, we'll know when we know.

 

[Rusty13]

FWIW, Carrabis is now implying he's also received some sourcing on this:

View: https://twitter.com/Jared_Carrabis/status/1610756615476760576?s=20&t=n86Tyc7PzqxUHlZdm_Uylg

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

At least it's good for a former player to be talking about us making a real offer to Devers rather than acting in an insulting manner and not "deserving" the player (from his IG posts a week or so ago). Progress!

That would be a totally reasonable number for Devers, and I'd go from "inexplicable off-season" to "hey, now here is a plan to ACTUALLY build for 2025-27, in Bloom I trust" in literally one second as that would justify every other short term deal we've made (or not made) to fit in Devers under the tax.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Relative to the other megadeals this offseason it certainly would be an agreeable deal.

 

[LogansDad]

"You're only offering us a bag of balls?"
"Yes"
"Done"

I know this is a joke, I've been a pretty staunch rose-colored glasses person here, and I don't dislike Brasier as much as many here, but if they don't get something at least in the vicinity of a Thad Ward type player/prospect then I am going to be pretty annoyed with the Brasier saga this offseason.

 

[chawson]

FWIW, Carrabis is now implying he's also received some sourcing on this:

View: https://twitter.com/Jared_Carrabis/status/1610756615476760576?s=20&t=n86Tyc7PzqxUHlZdm_Uylg

Genuine question: Does Jared Carrabis ever report anything? Isn’t he just a guy who gets paid by sports betting companies to post a lot?

 

[TonyPenaNeverJuiced]

FWIW, Carrabis is now implying he's also received some sourcing on this:

View: https://twitter.com/Jared_Carrabis/status/1610756615476760576?s=20&t=n86Tyc7PzqxUHlZdm_Uylg

The last time Carrabis felt good, X signed in San Diego the next day:

 

[gammoseditor]

Genuine question: Does Jared Carrabis ever report anything? Isn’t he just a guy who gets paid by sports betting companies to post a lot?

Done deal.
View: https://twitter.com/bnightengale/status/1610760739484225536?s=46&t=XVt0yaWgbyCCFRhxuX5Nmg

 

[DeadlySplitter]

It's Bob Nightengale... holding for someone else...

 

[gammoseditor]

It's Bob Nightengale... holding for someone else...

Rosenthal and Passan now both confirming.

 

[Rice4HOF]

Unclear on whether we’re supposed to post rumors or not on here? Anyhow a completely non-credible report about a Devers extension agreement FWIW View: https://twitter.com/hlebronjr/status/1610734188034166784?s=46&t=PHE94zOrPyb8qrQ2ot8W2A

I guess non-credible sources are the new market efficiency?

 

[geoflin]

I know this is a joke, I've been a pretty staunch rose-colored glasses person here, and I don't dislike Brasier as much as many here, but if they don't get something at least in the vicinity of a Thad Ward type player/prospect then I am going to be pretty annoyed with the Brasier saga this offseason.

I don't like Brasier but, joking aside, I agree with you. Since they chose to protect him and not Ward, they need to get something near Ward's value back if they trade Brasier or they made a big mistake.

 

[chrisfont9]

Genuine question: Does Jared Carrabis ever report anything? Isn’t he just a guy who gets paid by sports betting companies to post a lot?

He has a handful of friends who might tell him something, but I don't know if he actually tries to call guys who haven't slept on his couch or whatever.

 

[scottyno]

I don't like Brasier but, joking aside, I agree with you. Since they chose to protect him and not Ward, they need to get something near Ward's value back if they trade Brasier or they made a big mistake.

They still need to lose two more guys off the 40 man for Turner and Kluber, and they'll probably sign several more guys before the season starts. If they chose not to protect Ward in the first place he was never going to make it all the way through the offseason anyway.

 

[BeantownIdaho]

I don't like Brasier but, joking aside, I agree with you. Since they chose to protect him and not Ward, they need to get something near Ward's value back if they trade Brasier or they made a big mistake.

Which means they made a big mistake.

 

[JM3]

Good post.

So, if the farm system is about to bear fruit in '23 and almost certainly in '24, do the Red Sox extend Devers, even at a market rate, and lock down that young star who can anchor that new, upcoming core? Devers is 26 and probably hasn't hit his prime and will be good for quite a while.

If the Red Sox are following the Dodgers model, and I think they are, keeping Devers long-term should be part of the plan.

I think the timing is fine for a Devers extension. I suggested a max of 12/$363m or something similar in the beginning of the off season.

A ton depends on their internal evaluation, though. Because you really have to be sure this is someone who will work hard, age well, & earn that contract.

That's why I think they need to make their best & final offer - whatever that is based on their internal evaluation - & if he rejects it, they need to trade him for the best package available prior to the season (assuming there is decent interest).

The timing is fine!

I think this lines up nicely with the projected core at a ~reasonable rate/length. In a way that X did not.

 

[jon abbey]

Which means they made a big mistake.

Ward turns 26 in 2 weeks and has yet to pitch above AA. Even with WAS not trying to compete this year, there's a sizable chance he'll be returned to the BOS system at some point. If he is not returned and is actually good, then they made a mistake, but it's super premature to assess the situation currently.

 

[JM3]

Ward turns 26 in 2 weeks and has yet to pitch above AA. Even with WAS not trying to compete this year, there's a sizable chance he'll be returned to the BOS system at some point. If he is not returned and is actually good, then they made a mistake, but it's super premature to assess the situation currently.

Agree. I'm guessing they also tried to trade him prior to the Rule V deadline & weren't offered much/anything of value.

 

[Sin Duda]

And don't forget about the 40 man spot. If the return for Brasier is a promising A ball pitcher who does not have to be put on the 40 man, then they turned a non-tender candidate plus a 26 yo AA ball pitcher into a promising A ball pitcher and 2 spots on the 40.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Now that Devers is locked down, let’s go get Kim.

 

[TimScribble]

Now that Devers is locked down, let’s go get Kim.

I do wonder if they pursue the Kim trade if it’s going to be multi-pronged. Kim is around 7M AAV and will most likely cost a pitcher. Do we see the Sox make other trades as well to make room? Do the Sox move someone like Verdugo to make cap space or maybe the Marlins trade to replace a pitcher they deal?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I do wonder if they pursue the Kim trade if it’s going to be multi-pronged. Kim is around 7M AAV and will most likely cost a pitcher. Do we see the Sox make other trades as well to make room? Do the Sox move someone like Verdugo to make cap space or maybe the Marlins trade to replace a pitcher they deal?

If they're going to pursue someone like Kim, I don't think they need to make cap space to get it done. They'll go over the cap for him. To me, if you're acquiring Kim to upgrade at SS, you don't want to weaken another position in the process and make it a net gain of zero. If staying under the cap is a greater priority, why bother shuffling the deck chairs like that. You roll with what you have or find a cheaper upgrade somewhere else.

 

[TimScribble]

Bleacher Report Red Sox guy. I recognize that’s most likely the same recycled info from earlier this week. But they are acting as if it is “heating up” or getting closer to happening.

View: https://twitter.com/ggeiss24/status/1611007358796177410?s=46&t=OEKMF_MP_2DLfqO8qB1VQA

 

[Alex Cole's Rec Specs]

I do wonder if they pursue the Kim trade if it’s going to be multi-pronged. Kim is around 7M AAV and will most likely cost a pitcher. Do we see the Sox make other trades as well to make room? Do the Sox move someone like Verdugo to make cap space or maybe the Marlins trade to replace a pitcher they deal?

Assuming Turner's AAV is $10.85 million, which is what Alex Speier reported, assuming Devers's contract extension AAV is $30.09, which I think is pending confirmation, and assuming Brasier is shipped out of town, the Red Sox would have about $18 million in cap space before hitting the first Luxury Tax threshold. This is based on my own calculations, using MLB Trade Rumors estimates for arbitration-eligible players, and accounting for approximately $20 million in roster/benefit expenses.

They should be able to sign Andrus/Iglesias or trade for Kim/Mateo/Rojas/Wendle and add one more bench player if needed without coming too close to the limit.

 

[jezza1918]

Forgive me if this doesn't qualify of an actual rumor but Rafaela did tweet out some emojis this morning that could be him looking forward to spring training, or alluding to a Marlins deal...
View: https://twitter.com/cezanjr/status/1611006031886270469?s=20&t=yhdOIDRjCFd8AQ13Admm-g

 

[LogansDad]

Assuming Turner's AAV is $10.85 million, which is what Alex Speier reported, assuming Devers's contract extension AAV is $30.09, which I think is pending confirmation, and assuming Brasier is shipped out of town, the Red Sox would have about $18 million in cap space before hitting the first Luxury Tax threshold. This is based on my own calculations, using MLB Trade Rumors estimates for arbitration-eligible players, and accounting for approximately $20 million in roster/benefit expenses.

They should be able to sign Andrus/Iglesias or trade for Kim/Mateo/Rojas/Wendle and add one more bench player if needed without coming too close to the limit.

Cot's has them at $217M before Turner, but I'm also not sure there's been clarification on whether Devers' new contract overrode his arbitration number or not (I've seen differing reports, both here and elsewhere) so it's hard to tell right now.

I was convinced they wanted to stay under the threshold this year, but if the Devers full hit starts in '23 then I have completely changed my mind, and I don't think that $233 is a number they are as worried about.

 

[moondog80]

If they're going to pursue someone like Kim, I don't think they need to make cap space to get it done. They'll go over the cap for him. To me, if you're acquiring Kim to upgrade at SS, you don't want to weaken another position in the process and make it a net gain of zero. If staying under the cap is a greater priority, why bother shuffling the deck chairs like that. You roll with what you have or find a cheaper upgrade somewhere else.

Well, I do think they want to get under the cap at some point, if only to reset the penalties. Maybe next year? Kike, Kluber, Barnes, Paxton, and Arroyo are about 35 mil off the books, maybe another 12 with Turner, and Ohtani is the only big time FA. Should be doable to get under and still have room to fill in some holes with short term guys.

 

[TimScribble]

Forgive me if this doesn't qualify of an actual rumor but Rafaela did tweet out some emojis this morning that could be him looking forward to spring training, or alluding to a Marlins deal...
View: https://twitter.com/cezanjr/status/1611006031886270469?s=20&t=yhdOIDRjCFd8AQ13Admm-g

Scrolling through the Bleacher report guy’s twitter, he posted that as well which is probably the basis for his “update”.

 

[YTF]

Assuming Turner's AAV is $10.85 million, which is what Alex Speier reported, assuming Devers's contract extension AAV is $30.09, which I think is pending confirmation, and assuming Brasier is shipped out of town, the Red Sox would have about $18 million in cap space before hitting the first Luxury Tax threshold. This is based on my own calculations, using MLB Trade Rumors estimates for arbitration-eligible players, and accounting for approximately $20 million in roster/benefit expenses.

They should be able to sign Andrus/Iglesias or trade for Kim/Mateo/Rojas/Wendle and add one more bench player if needed without coming too close to the limit.

If you sign for or trade for any of these players, you bench will already be full consisting of Arroyo, Dalbec, RFsnyder and Wongers. Of course that can change if any of them are included in a deal or perhaps Dalbec starts the season in AAA.