There are another 1400 innings that they could pitch.
Not really, because those innings are earmarked for guys projected to be a lot better than Nick Pivetta.
I don't know, guys! Don't mean to belabor this but it's strange that so many consider Pivetta integral to the team. He's certainly a MLB starter but at this point he seems fungible, like a Jordan Lyles, Chris Archer, Kyle Gibson, Michael Wacha or Drew Smyly type typically available at 1/$10 or 2/$18. The value you'd have in trading him now is that another team might want to give up someone interesting for the right to pay that kind of guy only 2/$15M, and then you'd have more of an opportunity to evaluate your young arms at the major-league level.
Here's how Pivetta ranked among 140 MLB starters who threw 100+ IP last year:
ERA: 109/140
xERA: 113/140
FIP: 105/140
K%: 63/140
BB%: 122/140
HR/9: 109/140
Chase%: 118/140
vs. Barrel%: 115/140
I'd speculate too that Pivetta might be in for a rougher year without the shift, and without Trevor Story. The Sox shifted in 77 percent of Pivetta's PAs vs. left-handed batters. He gives up a lot of hard contact hit toward second base. I'm sure someone could dig deeper into this, but it could be relevant that Pivetta had a 3.85 FIP (.281 BABIP) before Story's injury (on July 12th) and a 5.20 FIP (.326 BABIP) after.
What’s the case for slotting Kutter Crawford, Chris Murphy, Brandon Walter, etc over Pivetta? This just feels like prospect humping.
Also think the “if everyone is healthy” is such a massive caveat.
The case is that Crawford and Walter currently both project to be better than Pivetta by ZIPS, and Crawford, Murphy, Walter, Mata and Winckowski all project to be better by Steamer, albeit in fewer innings. And getting one or more of them some starts at the major-league level gives us (and other teams) valuable information about how our starters can fare in future seasons.
If we get to a point where Kluber or Pivetta or whomever isn’t pitching well and the kids are; I’m sure that change can be made. But to push it now seems really risky.
What's so risky about it? We have six starters better than Pivetta
right now, and several others
already on the 40-man who may be able to put up his numbers. If you happen to make it to the playoffs, he's not in your rotation, and as of now he'd probably be the eighth man out of the bullpen.