Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding

BaseballJones

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Duvall HR rates:

2020: 190 ab, 16 hr, 11.9 ab/hr
2021: 513 ab, 38 hr, 13.5 ab/hr
2022: 287 ab, 12 hr, 23.9 ab/hr

So his power is decreasing, and he strikes out a ton, but still offers some RH pop, which they desperately need. Unless the cost is monumental, this would be a good, helpful signing.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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also what happens to Verdugo if Duvall is signed? AV plays center and Enrique goes to MIF?
Absent any other moves, I think yes it would mean Kike to the middle infield. Duvall has more recently played CF (43 games last season) so he seems more likely to be the one there.
 

JM3

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A small thing, but while I don't think either Dalbec or Duran is sure to be a useful major leaguer, an improved Duran would actually have value to the 2023 team as a fourth outfielder (with Hernandez playing mostly IF), whereas Dalbec seems completely surplus to requirements. Wouldn't be shocked to see him DFA'd.
Yeah, I'd much rather ship out Dalbec, but I think they have one more move coming for a SS & I think I would rather keep Hernandez mostly in the OF with Refsnyder being serviceable as the 4.5th outfielder. But I think Duran has actual upside, so would definitely be happier if Dalbec is the play.
 

JM3

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Duvall HR rates:

2020: 190 ab, 16 hr, 11.9 ab/hr
2021: 513 ab, 38 hr, 13.5 ab/hr
2022: 287 ab, 12 hr, 23.9 ab/hr

So his power is decreasing, and he strikes out a ton, but still offers some RH pop, which they desperately need. Unless the cost is monumental, this would be a good, helpful signing.
Pretty sure he was impacted by his left wrist injury that eventually required surgery last year. At least hopefully if this signing is happening.
 

Ale Xander

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Having to move Verdugo and/or Enrique out of position seems like to be externalized by the Yoshida/Turner signings. We needed 1 DH, not 2.
 

Max Power

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A 34 year old with a career .289 OBP isn't particularly exciting. But he's a righty, can play the outfield, and can hit homers. That may be the best option to fit the team's particular needs right now.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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So, do we cut Ort or Brasier, or is someone else let go to make room for him?
Ort seems more likely. I know everyone around here wants to hate on Brasier, but they just signed him to a deal to avoid arbitration. DFAing him three days later wouldn't make a whole lot of sense. If they felt he was that expendable, he'd be gone already.

Considering it took a couple weeks for the Turner and Kluber deals to go from rumor to reported agreement to official announcement, I think there are probably other shoes to drop before it's all wrapped up.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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A 34 year old with a career .289 OBP isn't particularly exciting. But he's a righty, can play the outfield, and can hit homers. That may be the best option to fit the team's particular needs right now.
Similar profile as Renfroe, kinda.

Last 3 seasons:

Duvall: 15.0 ab/hr, .225/.284/.473/.756, 100 ops+, 1.2 dWAR
Renfroe: 16.4 ab/hr, .246/.308/.485/.793, 115 ops+, -1.0 dWAR (limited range, decent glove, strong arm)
 

DJnVa

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Cutting Brasier would be something they should do anyway, so yes DFA'ing him for Duvall would be a great move.
You've been on this kick a while, but Brasier's peripherals weren't bad last season: 3.61 FIP, strikeouts up, walks down, career-best K/W.

His BABIP was 38 points higher than career average.
 

JM3

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Pretty sure he was impacted by his left wrist injury that eventually required surgery last year. At least hopefully if this signing is happening.
Actually, I guess that's wrong. He started off the season awful, then was great for a couple months before season-ending surgery.

wRC+ by month:

March/April 57
May 40
June 135
July 167 (only 30 PAs)
 

RedOctober3829

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You've been on this kick a while, but Brasier's peripherals weren't bad last season: 3.61 FIP, strikeouts up, walks down, career-best K/W.

His BABIP was 38 points higher than career average.
I don't trust him whatsoever. 2 of his last 3 full seasons(minus 2020) he's had FIP's in the mid to high 4's. Last year he had a career high in hits per 9. Last year he was Jekyll and Hyde. He was really good in April, June, and September(ERAs of 2.57, 2.25, and 2.25) and awful in May, July, and August(ERAs of 7.84, 10.00, and 9.75). Every month he made between 10 and 14 appearances so workload was pretty equal throughout the year.
 

Sprowl

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also what happens to Verdugo if Duvall is signed? AV plays center and Enrique goes to MIF?
Verdugo was so, so bad in centerfield in 2021 that he should never go near the triangle again (and Cora didn't play him in CF at all in 2022). He is pretty bad in rightfield too, but outside of Fenway, RF isn't such a dangerous position for a below-average fielder with a fairly good arm.

Fangraphs advanced fielding for Verdugo
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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A 34 year old with a career .289 OBP isn't particularly exciting. But he's a righty, can play the outfield, and can hit homers. That may be the best option to fit the team's particular needs right now.
Beggars can't be choosers, I suppose, but he's another wrong side of 30 guy with declining stats, a la Justin Turner. His OPS over the last four years:

2019 117
2020 114
2021 99
2022 87

Not a great trend line there.

I would think most of SoSH would be opposed to this guy on principle - his 2021 RBI crown is the poster child for how meaningless that stat can be.
 

LogansDad

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You've been on this kick a while, but Brasier's peripherals weren't bad last season: 3.61 FIP, strikeouts up, walks down, career-best K/W.

His BABIP was 38 points higher than career average.
I think Jarren Duran had a lot to do with Brasier's numbers last year.
 

BaseballJones

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FWIW--17 of Brasier's 40 ER were compiled in 4 games, totalling 2.1 innings.
He's generally pretty good but man when he blows up, he BLOWS UP.

On that note, I always thought that an interesting stat would be some version of average ERA, or median ERA. That is, an ERA stat that shows you how they *normally* pitch. Like, consider these two pitchers' 10-games lines:

Pitcher A
G1: 1.0 ip, 0 er, 0.00 era
G2: 1.1 ip, 0 er, 0.00 era
G3: 1.1 ip, 0 er, 0.00 era
G4: 1.0 ip, 0 er, 0.00 era
G5: 2.0 ip, 0 er, 0.00 era
G6: 1.0 ip, 0 er, 0.00 era
G7: 0.2 ip, 5 er, 67.50 era
G8: 1.1 ip, 0 er, 0.00 era
G9: 1.0 ip, 0 er, 0.00 era
G10: 1.1 ip, 0 er, 0.00 era
TOT: 12.0 ip, 5 er, 3.75 era, 0.00 median era

Pitcher B
G1: 1.0 ip, 1 er, 9.00 era
G2: 0.2 ip, 1 er, 13.27 era
G3: 1.0 ip, 0 er, 0.00 era
G4: 1.1 ip, 1 er, 6.75 era
G5: 1.0 ip, 0 er, 0.00 era
G6: 1.0 ip, 1 er, 9.00 era
G7: 1.0 ip, 0 er, 0.00 era
G8: 2.0 ip, 0 er, 0.00 era
G9: 2.0 ip, 0 er, 0.00 era
G10: 1.0 ip, 1 er, 9.00 era
TOT: 12.0 ip, 5 er, 3.75 era, 6.75 median era

I think we'd all rather have Pitcher A - very reliable, shutdown guy who blows up occasionally. Pitcher B gives up runs half the time, which may be a real problem if he's pitching in the later innings.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Beggars can't be choosers, I suppose, but he's another wrong side of 30 guy with declining stats, a la Justin Turner. His OPS over the last four years:

2019 117
2020 114
2021 99
2022 87

Not a great trend line there.

I would think most of SoSH would be opposed to this guy on principle - his 2021 RBI crown is the poster child for how meaningless that stat can be.
Right now the goal should be to field the most competitive team in 2023 while accomplishing two things...
  1. Reset the luxury tax
  2. Maintain payroll flexibility for 2024, 25, 26 to add to improving core
If goals 1 and 2 must be met you're going to get Justin Turner and Adam Duval types. And that's okay for right now
 

chawson

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Hmm, I wouldn't discount the possibility that Verdugo is shipped out here, possibly for a middle infielder, and Kiké stays in CF.

I think they would really prefer Kiké stay in center. And I'd be willing to bet that if he wanted assurance he’d have a shot at playing one primary position before he signed with us in 2021, then it probably came up again in the conversation he had with Bloom before signing a one-year extension.

Keeping Kiké in CF makes sense because he's phenomenal there, but also making him a utility guy in his walk year after signing a team-friendly extension doesn't seem like something they'd do.
 
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Mugsy's Jock

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if money and age weren’t variables I’d prefer Kluber to Seabold, but since they are, I’d rather have the lower paid 26 year old. And certainly prefer Seabold to Ort. Hope to be wrong
I'd have DFA'd Ort at least two transactions ago (before Darwinson or Seabold). Not sure I get the appeal of a 30-year-old RHP who was demonstrably awful in MLB. His ceiling is Worcester.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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Not so fast on pencilling Duvall into CF -- found this in an article from last year suggesting CF was hard on him:

When the Braves called up Michael Harris, a center fielder, Duvall shifted to left field. This has given the Braves their best defensive outfield of the season, with Duvall and Ronald Acuña in the corners.

“It’s a lot easier on my legs,” Duvall said. “My legs feel a lot fresher after playing left. With that being said, I love playing center. It is more taxing on your body because you’re going two different ways. It has been a little bit better from a recovery standpoint, on my legs, being in the corner.”

Added manager Brian Snitker: “I worried about that all winter, playing him in center field, because he’s such a big man. There’s a lot of running involved, so I think that’ll help him. At the end of that last series, he was starting to swing the bat pretty good, too. I think the lessened physical toll should help him offensively.”
https://www.ajc.com/sports/atlanta-braves/braves-adam-duvall-i-didnt-feel-like-i-just-forgot-how-to-hit-overnight/CH2BJZG66FA2JOBETB7GK57ARU/
 

JM3

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Hmm, I wouldn't discount the possibility that Verdugo is shipped out here, possibly for a middle infielder, and Kiké stays in CF.

I think they would really prefer Kiké stay in center. And I'd be willing to bet that if playing one primary position was a sticking point in him signing with us in 2021, then it probably came up again in the conversation he had with Bloom before signing an extension.

Keeping Kiké in CF makes sense because he's phenomenal there, but also making him a utility guy in his walk year after signing a team-friendly extension doesn't seem like something they'd do.
Something with the Padres kind of makes sense...

Kim/Grisham
Verdugo/Arroyo/Dalbec/Pivetta/Lugo

Would give the Padres a couple infield options to rotate into 1st & 2nd with Croneworth, & would leave them with an outfield of Verdugo/Tatis/Soto. Their rotation is also kind of suspect with Seth Lugo & Nick Martinez penciled in.

Would give the Red Sox their SS & another plus outfield defender who can maybe learn to hit again. Sign Josh Harrison or similar, platoon him with Valdez.
 

bsj

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Yeah I came to say this. He HATES centerfield. Im sure he's part of the equation but would be surprised if he played there full time.

I feel like this is going to be a deal where he and AV and Duran probably each take 50 games in CF, he takes another 50 or so in LF, and then maybe takes another for another 20-25 games or so in RF vs LHP.
 

Average Game James

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Something with the Padres kind of makes sense...

Kim/Grisham
Verdugo/Arroyo/Dalbec/Pivetta/Lugo

Would give the Padres a couple infield options to rotate into 1st & 2nd with Croneworth, & would leave them with an outfield of Verdugo/Tatis/Soto. Their rotation is also kind of suspect with Seth Lugo & Nick Martinez penciled in.

Would give the Red Sox their SS & another plus outfield defender who can maybe learn to hit again. Sign Josh Harrison or similar, platoon him with Valdez.
Not that BTV is gospel, but on the trade simulator that package from the Sox barely gets you one of Kim/Grisham. And even if you added prospects to balance it out, not sure why the Padres want to trade for a bunch of spare parts.
 

JM3

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Not that BTV is gospel, but on the trade simulator that package from the Sox barely gets you one of Kim/Grisham. And even if you added prospects to balance it out, not sure why the Padres want to trade for a bunch of spare parts.
Because they lack cost-controlled talent & already have a high payroll. Grisham is not particularly useful imo, so if BTV has him as super valuable, then he can come out of the deal - but I don't think the Red Sox have nearly enough OF talent to trade Verdugo & not replace him.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Yeah I came to say this. He HATES centerfield. Im sure he's part of the equation but would be surprised if he played there full time.

I feel like this is going to be a deal where he and AV and Duran probably each take 50 games in CF, he takes another 50 or so in LF, and then maybe takes another for another 20-25 games or so in RF vs LHP.
Weird that Duvall says just the opposite: he loves playing CF but it is harder on his legs than the corner outfield spots.

From the link above: “[Left Field is] a lot easier on my legs,” Duvall said. “My legs feel a lot fresher after playing left. With that being said, I love playing center. It is more taxing on your body because you’re going two different ways. It has been a little bit better from a recovery standpoint, on my legs, being in the corner.”
 

JM3

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Hmm, I wouldn't discount the possibility that Verdugo is shipped out here, possibly for a middle infielder, and Kiké stays in CF.

I think they would really prefer Kiké stay in center. And I'd be willing to bet that if he wanted assurance he’d have a shot at playing one primary position before he signed with us in 2021, then it probably came up again in the conversation he had with Bloom before signing a one-year extension.

Keeping Kiké in CF makes sense because he's phenomenal there, but also making him a utility guy in his walk year after signing a team-friendly extension doesn't seem like something they'd do.
I'm sure they would talk to him about his role, but I can't imagine it being bad for his value if he can show that he can still excel at multiple positions. It's mostly going to be his bat that will determine his value in free agency, though, as his baseline defensive skills are there.

I've decided against trading Verdugo & I've decided to just sign Andrus & stay under the cap fwiw.

C McGuire/Wong (or Alfaro)
1B Casas/Turner
2B Arroyo/Valdez/Kiké
SS Andrus/Kiké/Arroyo
3B Devers/Turner
LF Yoshida/Verdugo/Refsnyder
CF Kiké/Duvall/Duran
RF Verdugo/Duvall/Refnsyder
DH Turner/Yoshida/Valdez

It's not like ~great, but it keeps all their flexibility open for future seasons & is good enough that if the pitching clicks, they should be a Wild Card team.

That can also be supplemented by the return of Story if he returns, Rafaela, Dalbec (if they send him to Worcester instead of another team), Hamilton, Allen, etc.
 

RedOctober3829

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I'm sure they would talk to him about his role, but I can't imagine it being bad for his value if he can show that he can still excel at multiple positions. It's mostly going to be his bat that will determine his value in free agency, though, as his baseline defensive skills are there.

I've decided against trading Verdugo & I've decided to just sign Andrus & stay under the cap fwiw.

C McGuire/Wong (or Alfaro)
1B Casas/Turner
2B Arroyo/Valdez/Kiké
SS Andrus/Kiké/Arroyo
3B Devers/Turner
LF Yoshida/Verdugo/Refsnyder
CF Kiké/Duvall/Duran
RF Verdugo/Duvall/Refnsyder
DH Turner/Yoshida/Valdez

It's not like ~great, but it keeps all their flexibility open for future seasons & is good enough that if the pitching clicks, they should be a Wild Card team.
I find it hard to believe they will go over the luxury tax this year given that this isn't a contending team so I'm with your thinking on this one.
 

bsj

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Weird that Duvall says just the opposite: he loves playing CF but it is harder on his legs than the corner outfield spots.

From the link above: “[Left Field is] a lot easier on my legs,” Duvall said. “My legs feel a lot fresher after playing left. With that being said, I love playing center. It is more taxing on your body because you’re going two different ways. It has been a little bit better from a recovery standpoint, on my legs, being in the corner.”
Well, if he enjoys it and is able to make it work for him physicallyl, I am all for it. I had only heard the first part of that quote, sorry.
 

JM3

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I find it hard to believe they will go over the luxury tax this year given that this isn't a contending team so I'm with your thinking on this one.
I definitely don't think they're great, but I think they should be decent because they had so many below replacement level at bats & innings last year that shouldn't be an issue this year. Definitely a good year for a tax reset, though, yeah.

Weird that Duvall says just the opposite: he loves playing CF but it is harder on his legs than the corner outfield spots.

From the link above: “[Left Field is] a lot easier on my legs,” Duvall said. “My legs feel a lot fresher after playing left. With that being said, I love playing center. It is more taxing on your body because you’re going two different ways. It has been a little bit better from a recovery standpoint, on my legs, being in the corner.”
I feel like he's probably playing left field wrong if he only goes in one direction...but I understand the general sentiment.

He has been above average by DRS & OAA in his CF innings the last 2 years, so that's nice.
 

TimScribble

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It seems the Red Sox have 3 paths forward:

1. No changes. (KH to SS, Arroyo at 2B, Duran in CF)
Pros: Save minor league prospects, no additional 40-man juggling, stay under the threshold.
Cons: Weakens your defense, very little depth in case of injury, still need a RF bat.

2. Sign a combination of Profar, Andrus, Duvall
Pros: Keeps KR in center, adds a RH bat, gives options at multiple positions, saves the prospects
Cons: exceeds threshold most likely, 40-man decisions have to be made.

3. Make a trade
Pros: Adds pieces needed (SS, OF), potentially stay under threshold, solves 40-man issues
Cons: Lose prospects

I think it’s a combo of 2 and 3, but the Sox will have to sacrifice in at least one area: Luxury tax, Prospects, 40-man purge.
 

JM3

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It seems the Red Sox have 3 paths forward:

1. No changes. (KH to SS, Arroyo at 2B, Duran in CF)
Pros: Save minor league prospects, no additional 40-man juggling, stay under the threshold.
Cons: Weakens your defense, very little depth in case of injury, still need a RF bat.

2. Sign a combination of Profar, Andrus, Duvall
Pros: Keeps KR in center, adds a RH bat, gives options at multiple positions, saves the prospects
Cons: exceeds threshold most likely, 40-man decisions have to be made.

3. Make a trade
Pros: Adds pieces needed (SS, OF), potentially stay under threshold, solves 40-man issues
Cons: Lose prospects

I think it’s a combo of 2 and 3, but the Sox will have to sacrifice in at least one area: Luxury tax, Prospects, 40-man purge.
Re: #2

Even the most conservative of estimates has the Red Sox at $19m more to spend for this year (I think the real # is probably closer to $25m), but even using that #, any 2 of those guys should put them right about on that #, especially if you factor in there are 2 minimum slots that would no longer be required to be counted, or for example if you moved Brasier's $2m to slide under.

But yeah, I think 2 is the right call at this point unless a nice deal opens up for a SS. Haven't been excited to do any of the rumored stuff, though.
 

chawson

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Something with the Padres kind of makes sense...

Kim/Grisham
Verdugo/Arroyo/Dalbec/Pivetta/Lugo

Would give the Padres a couple infield options to rotate into 1st & 2nd with Croneworth, & would leave them with an outfield of Verdugo/Tatis/Soto. Their rotation is also kind of suspect with Seth Lugo & Nick Martinez penciled in.

Would give the Red Sox their SS & another plus outfield defender who can maybe learn to hit again. Sign Josh Harrison or similar, platoon him with Valdez.
I’d be into that kind of deal.

If Duvall is a yes, then our outfield picture would look like Yoshida, Kiké, Verdugo, Refsnyder, Duvall, Duran and maybe Valdez and Alfaro here or there, with no real DH slot to rotate them through. That's too many!

I think they like Refsnyder as a fourth outfielder and wouldn’t have given him that kind of money to be a fifth, especially since his days in the infield are over. To me that strongly suggests that Verdugo is out.

The Padres could use a LF and something like Pivetta and Verdugo for Kim would certainly work. Maybe they go for Eguy Rosario? I like dealing Houck for the right kind of thing but I'm not totally sold that two years of Kim is the right kind of thing.

I'm sure they would talk to him about his role, but I can't imagine it being bad for his value if he can show that he can still excel at multiple positions. It's mostly going to be his bat that will determine his value in free agency, though, as his baseline defensive skills are there.

I've decided against trading Verdugo & I've decided to just sign Andrus & stay under the cap fwiw.

C McGuire/Wong (or Alfaro)
1B Casas/Turner
2B Arroyo/Valdez/Kiké
SS Andrus/Kiké/Arroyo
3B Devers/Turner
LF Yoshida/Verdugo/Refsnyder
CF Kiké/Duvall/Duran
RF Verdugo/Duvall/Refnsyder
DH Turner/Yoshida/Valdez

It's not like ~great, but it keeps all their flexibility open for future seasons & is good enough that if the pitching clicks, they should be a Wild Card team.
This kind of depth is nice. I don't think Andrus will be our guy but I could very well be wrong.

One other name I could see them trade Verdugo for is Braves RHP Ian Anderson. He's right in the window Pivetta was when we traded for him, some early success marred by injury and recent struggles (COVID seemed to derail him a bit), and now he's buried in their rotation. He's got a unique arm angle and throws a hell of a changeup. I wonder if spending a year with Corey Kluber might help that curveball.
 

Daniel_Son

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Having watched Grisham in San Diego a fair bit, I'm not sure I get the appeal. He's a solid defender but absolutely abysmal at the plate. He's still youngish so maybe there's some potential there, but I'd much rather go with Kiké and Verdugo in CF/RF and sign Andrus.
 

Cassvt2023

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It seems the Red Sox have 3 paths forward:

1. No changes. (KH to SS, Arroyo at 2B, Duran in CF)
Pros: Save minor league prospects, no additional 40-man juggling, stay under the threshold.
Cons: Weakens your defense, very little depth in case of injury, still need a RF bat.

2. Sign a combination of Profar, Andrus, Duvall
Pros: Keeps KR in center, adds a RH bat, gives options at multiple positions, saves the prospects
Cons: exceeds threshold most likely, 40-man decisions have to be made.

3. Make a trade
Pros: Adds pieces needed (SS, OF), potentially stay under threshold, solves 40-man issues
Cons: Lose prospects

I think it’s a combo of 2 and 3, but the Sox will have to sacrifice in at least one area: Luxury tax, Prospects, 40-man purge.

I basically laid out the #2 scenario on a different thread, "what will 2023 look like" a couple of hours ago. I also expanded on it while getting into roster flexibility. Since i haven't been on SOSH in a couple years, i'm learning that this thread is the most active one these days. Feel free to go read my post and i'd love to hear others thoughts. Glad to be back!
 

YTF

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also what happens to Verdugo if Duvall is signed? AV plays center and Enrique goes to MIF?
My guess would be 4 man rotation. Yoshida-Verdugo in LF, Hernandez-Duvall CF, Duval-Verdugo RF. My tentative 13 man non pitching roster would be.

C McGuire
C Alfaro
1B Casas
2B TBA (Kim)
SS TBA (Andrus)
3B Devers
DH/1B/3B Turner
OF Yoshida
OF Hernanzez
OF Duval
OF Verdugo
Utility Arroyo
Utility RFsnyder

If Duval is signed there likely isn't room under the cap for both Adrus and Kim, but I list both thinking that we get one or the other. I love that Kim plays very good defense, but of the two prefer Andrus at SS as I think if pressed into duty Arroyo seems better suited for 2B