Mayer will start this year in high A and if everything goes absolutely perfect, he will end up in double A. Having any sort of plans for him in 2024 isn't on the radar.
Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding
- Thread starter jcormjmac
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I think that it is the opposite. Houck can be better than his numbers. If pitchers were graded like ice skaters then Houck may have the best pure stuff on the staff outside of Sale. Whether he can achieve that obviously has a lot of other variables that I think the Sox would obviously know better than anyone. He's a tremendous asset if the Sox think that he has something real holding him back, someone will overpay for him. I think Kim for Dalbec and Houck would be such an overpay. Dalbec is effectively worthless, so if you can get Houck for the potential of 10 WAR over the next 2 seasons, then sign me up.
On the other hand, if Houck is on the precipice of putting it together, I'd never trade pitching WAR for positional WAR. Particularly with this team where our minor reserves are a bit barren in the pitching category.
I could see him being relevant for 2025, no? At that point, we let Kim walk (after '23 and '24) or find a way to keep both (assuming Mayer continues to live up to expectations).
Kim’s offense seems like it’s a bit smoke and mirrors when you look at the Statcast data; I’m on the fence as to giving up more years of cheap control in Houk against just signing Andrus.
I'm in favor if only because I think they definitely need a plus CF like Kike. Just not confident Duvall is healthy enough to stay in CF, or a good enough hitter not to be another JBJ.
So if this happens....
C - McGuire
1b - Casas
2b - Arroyo
3b - Devers
SS - Kim
LF - Yoshida
CF - Hernandez
RF - Verdugo
DH - Turner
Bench - Alfaro/Wong, Duvall, Refsnyder, Valdez (Story returning later in the year?)
SP - Sale, Paxton, Kluber, Pivetta, Bello, Whitlock (?)
RP - Whitlock (?), Barnes, Schreiber, Martin, Jansen, Taylor, Rodriguez, Brasier
I mean, that's ok. Not great, but ok.
C - McGuire
1b - Casas
2b - Arroyo
3b - Devers
SS - Kim
LF - Yoshida
CF - Hernandez
RF - Verdugo
DH - Turner
Bench - Alfaro/Wong, Duvall, Refsnyder, Valdez (Story returning later in the year?)
SP - Sale, Paxton, Kluber, Pivetta, Bello, Whitlock (?)
RP - Whitlock (?), Barnes, Schreiber, Martin, Jansen, Taylor, Rodriguez, Brasier
I mean, that's ok. Not great, but ok.
If you just sign Andrus then you still need to DFA someone to make room for him on the 40man. Then DFA someone to make room for Duval, and DFA someone to make room for Alfaro...........who would be the three DFA's?
I would do the deal. Houck has a real chance to not be much as a starter. Dalbec we all want to drive to the airport.
You don’t need to add Alfaro to the 40-man anytime soon. Story going to the 60 day DL will open up one spot. If you add a SS or 2B, I’d imagine they dump Ort or Kelly and then trade probably Duran or Dalbec for whatever they can get .
The time through the order data suggest that he is far better suited to relieving than starting.
Tanner Houck - Stats - Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball
I would be happy to do this deal. Right or wrong, the Sox seem to have decided Houck is a middle reliever/depth starter, and those just aren't that valuable. Adding Kim is one the last moves of building a roster that IMO can make the playoffs.
Now take a look at Whitlock. I think we’ll need all the pitching we have, and then some. 5 years of Houck for 2 of Kim isn’t a deal I’d make, but it seems like a reasonable enough deal, I guess.
Only 39 innings for him so not too probative of anything, but IMHO his highest and best use has always been the pen as well.
It's hard to call 6 1/3 innings "data" in any real sense. But yes, he's probably a 2x through the lineup pitcher. Which is 4 or 5 innings. Which if he can do effectively every 5 days, that's super useful.
Man, I wish we'd just bid a little higher and signed Kim two years ago.
I'm on the fence on this deal but I think I'd probably do it. Maybe there's more: Kiké shifts to CF, Duvall to RF and Verdugo on the move?
I'm on the fence on this deal but I think I'd probably do it. Maybe there's more: Kiké shifts to CF, Duvall to RF and Verdugo on the move?
Now look at Whitlock vs. LHH compared with Houck vs. LHH
When you're trying to trade for a valuable player, you generally have to give up value, too.
Houck vs LH 232/332/344
Whitlock vs LH 192/215/344
Whitlock’s are great, Houck still really good.
I’d like to see both of these guys in the rotation for years to come, frankly.
I'd hesitate to lose Houck, but the effort to fortify the bullpen over the winter, plus Barnes' good finish and (hopefully) another good year from Schreiber makes me feel better about it. I'm not sure why the Padres want Dalbec. You're dealing partly from strength and adding a spare part. The Red Sox are over a barrel when it comes to middle infield, so I think it's going to be hard to find a deal for anything more than a warm body at short.
You can DFA someone who is not as valuable as Houk. For all the value Dalbec and Duran have around here, just DFA them, or Ort, it doesn’t really matter; the deal as proposed is essentially Kim for Houk and I’m not sure the overall value is there for the Sox. I can be convinced either way, but you don’t do a deal just as a vehicle to send additional players to another team.
Houck vs. LHB, 2022: .360 expected wOBA
Whitlock vs. LHB, 2022: .252 expected wOBA
I think Story and JBJ's range saved Houck a lot of hassle last year.
This is spot on, imho. I'm high on Houck. That said, we NEED a solid everyday shortstop and Kim seems to fit that bill. Add to this the fact that he's under our control (if we get him) for 2 more years. Most people seem to think Mayer will not only pan out, but be ready in 2025. Kim is the perfect bridge for that. As I mentioned upthread, we can try to resign him if he meets/exceeds our expectations and move him to 2b/3b if Mayer doesn't flame out and needs to stay at ss. To me, it's a good problem to have. I'd hate to move Houck, but this is the type of player I'd be fine with trading him for. You can never have too much pitching, especially good cost-controlled pitching, but if there isn't a decent SS behind him, the pitcher isn't as valuable. Leave Kike in CF, where I believe he belongs, and have Arroyo hold done 2b until Story is ready at which point Arroyo becomes a super utility guy.
Would Mayer have the skill set to shift to the outfield? The infield would be kind of crowded if we got Kim and he played well enough for us to invest long term with Devers, Story, and Casas already in the mix and I can’t imagine wanting to shift Raffy to DH so early into his deal. SoxProspects write up on Mayer tells me he might work as an outfielder but prospect evaluation isn’t something I‘m very proficient at. Obviously, I’m getting way ahead of myself because Kim still plays for the Padres right now but I figured it might merit discussion.
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That's way above my paygrade, as well. That's still a good problem to have, though, isn't it? I wouldn't be shocked to see Raffy at DH sooner rather than later. 3 years from now, who knows?
My assumption is anyone who can handle SS is a good bet to make the transition to the OF. That said, it would be a "we'll cross that bridge when we get there" situation. If/when they extend Kim, they'll have that much more information on Mayer and the rest of the roster and will make a decision accordingly.
I don't know that I believe that Lion dude is for real, but that seems like a fair deal for both teams. Both Houck and Kim are potential studs with question marks, and both allow their respective teams to deal from strength to patch holes on the other team.
San Diego needs help in the back end of their rotation, and we have a hole at SS. They have like four starting-caliber shortstops on their roster, and we have a lot of young pitchers in the pipeline for once. Dalbec is a dice roll. Maybe he is what he's shown — a guy with huge power and big K problems, who's pretty good against lefties — or maybe he puts it together. We don't have a roster spot to give him to find out; maybe someone else does.
If Kim works out so well that we might want to keep him over Mayer in two years, then that is an effing fantastic problem to have. You either let Kim walk and play Mayer, freeing up some payroll space, or else you deal Mayer for a really good young player at a position of need and retain Kim. And maybe Story has opted out — remember he has that weird opt-out/opt-in set up — or Devers is spending more time at DH and we need another infielder anyway.
San Diego needs help in the back end of their rotation, and we have a hole at SS. They have like four starting-caliber shortstops on their roster, and we have a lot of young pitchers in the pipeline for once. Dalbec is a dice roll. Maybe he is what he's shown — a guy with huge power and big K problems, who's pretty good against lefties — or maybe he puts it together. We don't have a roster spot to give him to find out; maybe someone else does.
If Kim works out so well that we might want to keep him over Mayer in two years, then that is an effing fantastic problem to have. You either let Kim walk and play Mayer, freeing up some payroll space, or else you deal Mayer for a really good young player at a position of need and retain Kim. And maybe Story has opted out — remember he has that weird opt-out/opt-in set up — or Devers is spending more time at DH and we need another infielder anyway.
Also, let's be real. Houck really screwed over the team with his antivax antics. That's the kind of thing that gets you traded.
(If this is too V&N for this board, I wouldn't be offended if a Dope deletes it.)
(If this is too V&N for this board, I wouldn't be offended if a Dope deletes it.)
I would be all over this deal. Kim had .754 OPS away from Petco last year. Add a nice Fenway boost and his defense and you’d have a really valuable player. Houck, Dalbec, and some random prospect would be an incredibly fair deal for both sides.
I think I remember this being whispered about in regards to Seattle dumping Kendall Graveman in 2021 so there’s some possible precedent.
He MAY have cost the team a couple of games at most. They missed the playoffs by 8 games. I don't think they're trading him because of that. Especially now that those rules are kaput.
The rules are gone, but the team-second attitude is what would be at issue.
If this in fact happens, they would never say anything to confirm it, because of course it would (rightly) get grieved by the union. But I bet Cora is pretty pissed off about it. I would have a lot of trouble trusting Houck in an important role after something like that.
I'm kind of torn by this rumor.
Houck is not one of my favorite Red Sox players and it was excruciating watch Bobby flail so badly last year.
I mostly only have seen Kim in last year's postseason, where he looked like a really smart, quick player. He's good defensively and seems like a good baserunner and would fill a big need.
On the other hand, I hate the idea of trading a young, cost-controlled pitcher with good stuff. I think if Houck was made a high leverage reliever, he would be a really good one.
I also think Dalbec has some value, but that Red Sox fans who are sick of watching Bobby flail so badly don't see it.
Overall, he hit well in 2020 and 2021 and should be able to play a decent 3B. If the Padres do this deal I assume they would use Dalbec as a part time DH and back corner IF this year, and if he does decently they could have a cheap third baseman the next year when Machado leaves.
I guess if we do this deal, I'm fine with it, as long as we aren't throwing in anything else of value. I can definitely see why SD would do it too. I would expect Houck to be good for them and cheap for a long time.
Houck is not one of my favorite Red Sox players and it was excruciating watch Bobby flail so badly last year.
I mostly only have seen Kim in last year's postseason, where he looked like a really smart, quick player. He's good defensively and seems like a good baserunner and would fill a big need.
On the other hand, I hate the idea of trading a young, cost-controlled pitcher with good stuff. I think if Houck was made a high leverage reliever, he would be a really good one.
I also think Dalbec has some value, but that Red Sox fans who are sick of watching Bobby flail so badly don't see it.
Overall, he hit well in 2020 and 2021 and should be able to play a decent 3B. If the Padres do this deal I assume they would use Dalbec as a part time DH and back corner IF this year, and if he does decently they could have a cheap third baseman the next year when Machado leaves.
I guess if we do this deal, I'm fine with it, as long as we aren't throwing in anything else of value. I can definitely see why SD would do it too. I would expect Houck to be good for them and cheap for a long time.
Cora might be. Or he might not be. Do you have any knowledge of that or are you just assuming that Cora must be because you are? (I'm not trying to start a fight here...I'm just wondering)
What would the lineup look like? Not sure where Duvall would fit in there.
vs RHP
LF Yoshida
SS Kim
3b Devers
DH Turner
1b Casas
CF Hernandez
RF Verdugo
C McGuire
2b Arroyo
vs LHP
LF Yoshida
SS Kim
3b Devers
DH Turner
RF Duvall
CF Hernandez
1b Casas
2b Arroyo
C McGuire
Something like that?
vs RHP
LF Yoshida
SS Kim
3b Devers
DH Turner
1b Casas
CF Hernandez
RF Verdugo
C McGuire
2b Arroyo
vs LHP
LF Yoshida
SS Kim
3b Devers
DH Turner
RF Duvall
CF Hernandez
1b Casas
2b Arroyo
C McGuire
Something like that?
Ugh, that doesn’t feel like a very good lineup. Kim feels like a guy who should be batting at the end of the order, but so do the guys already there. Can’t really bat Verdugo 2nd because then you’ve got three lefties in a row.
Is this rumor actually even legit, or just that guy spitballing again?
Is this rumor actually even legit, or just that guy spitballing again?
In that scenario, I’m not sure where Refsnyder fits in.
I understand that no one really believes in him, but I think the Sox like him for more of a role than we realize. He had the team’s third-highest rate of quality contact last year, behind Devers and right behind JDM.
Tapia and Allen seem like 5th OF types. Refsnyder looks like a 4 at least.
I'd personally be happier about this possibility if Duran was swapped for Bobby. I just have this feeling that he's going to find it and Duran is never going to.
Refsnyder was terrific last year but it was such a crazy statistical outlier, I'm not really sure we can count on him for much at all.
2016 - .637 ops, 73 ops+
2017 - .463 ops, 25 ops+
2018 - .588 ops, 66 ops+
2019 - nothing
2020 - .498 ops, 40 ops+
2021 - .663 ops, 63 ops+
2022 - .881 ops, 143 ops+
One of these things is not like the others. Like...not even remotely close.
Vs. LHP...
Career - .255/.356/.373/.728
2022 - .359/.411/.594/1.005
I mean, he's definitely okay against lefties, but nothing amazing. I just think it's foolish to consider him a really important piece.
2016 - .637 ops, 73 ops+
2017 - .463 ops, 25 ops+
2018 - .588 ops, 66 ops+
2019 - nothing
2020 - .498 ops, 40 ops+
2021 - .663 ops, 63 ops+
2022 - .881 ops, 143 ops+
One of these things is not like the others. Like...not even remotely close.
Vs. LHP...
Career - .255/.356/.373/.728
2022 - .359/.411/.594/1.005
I mean, he's definitely okay against lefties, but nothing amazing. I just think it's foolish to consider him a really important piece.
Nobody including Kim and Arroyo is likely to play 162 games, maybe not even close if one of those two (or anybody else which inevitably happens) gets hurt. Days off allow Hernandez to move to the infield and open up an OF spot, days off for Hernandez also open an OF spot. Days off for Devers put Turner at 3B and open up DH, etc. I think the plan to begin the year is to sit Casas against LHP which opens a spot.
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