Red Sox Trade Deadline 2022

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Who should the Red Sox have acquired this past off season who is young & healthy & available & would have solved this super foreseeable problem of everyone getting injured? Keeping in mind for example that Wacha recently turned 31 & Whitlock recently turned 26, Eovaldi is 32, etc.

Rodon or Gausman instead of JBJ / Paxton? Jansen, and keep Houck in rotation? Of course, they also could have signed E-Rod which would not have been great. But this is kind of what happens when you dabble in the market of guys who are willing to sign 1 year deals at less than $10M; there’s a reason those pitchers accept those deals. Looking back, Tyler Anderson and Wacha are probably the best value so far this off-season with mostly misses and wasted money.

If you look at the list of free agent starters from last year, seems like the majority have spent time on DL this year; so perhaps it is not surprising that so many of the Sox guys went down.

E-Rod
Stroman
Jon Gray
Matz
Kikuchi
DeSclafani
Wood
Thor
Cobb
Greinke
Heaney
Tyler Anderson
Kluber
Wacha
Pineda
Smyly
G-Rich
Hill
Bundy

 

[Rovin Romine]

You expected all the starters but one to be injured at the same time? Six of seven guys all on the IL together?

Don't forget Houck or the Sale injury timeline: when the lockout ended, Bloom thought the depth was Sale, (Paxton), Eovaldi, Pivetta, Wacha, Hill, Whitlock, Houck, (AAA - Seabold, Crawford, et al.). In fact, he signed Wacha and Hill before Sale was injured. Honestly, that looks like plenty of depth to me.

But here's an alternate theory to explain the recent trades - Bloom did an analysis of lurker-sacrifice in game threads and found that the Sox have a better record when such happens. Therefore, he made some trades to draw out the maximum number of mouth-breathing WEEI hot-takes, setting us up for a hot run for the rest of the year.

It's as well thought-out and fact-free as half the stuff we're seeing on the boards.

 

[cantor44]

You expected all the starters but one to be injured at the same time? Six of seven guys all on the IL together?

Not exactly ALL at the same time, I dunno. I expected them all to miss significant time. We all know baseball is a game of doing stuff to improve your percentages. The staff Bloom put together had very strong odds to miss a lot of time. That is, I don't think the rotation being riddled with injuries has just been a matter of luck, regardless of what sequence they got hurt in.

It was a comb over rotation, and Bloom looked in the mirror, blurred his eyes, and saw 2018. But everyone else could see he had a comb over.

 

[rockchalkredsox]

You can't build a rotation at the beginning of a season to anticipate 5-6 SP out at the same time because you can't sign most SPs (at least with FSF11's requirements) without a guaranteed spot in the rotation. In these cases, you have to rely on your AAA/AAAA depth to withstand the injuries. I liked the idea of Rodon but he was also injured in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and cost more to sign than Hill, Wacha, and Paxton combined.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

If you are building a rotation via free agency, though, you are going to have to anticipate a lot of injuries because those are the kinds of pitchers who seem most likely to get hurt. Just looks the list from last years - looks like 75% or more of the pitchers who signed in the $5-$15M range got hurt. Houck and Whitlock seemed to be SP depth, but given the issues with the pen, that didn’t really happen .

 

[Rovin Romine]

Of course, they also could have signed E-Rod which would not have been great.

We don't really know what happened, or if what happened was a product of his playing in Detroit. But man. I cannot imagine the collective meltdown if E-Rod's 2022 had happened here after he signed a multi-year deal with the Sox.

 

[DJnVa]

Rodon or Gausman instead of JBJ / Paxton?

Coming into this season Rodon had made 33 starts over the previous 3 seasons. The fact that he's been healthy this year is the outlier.

 

[JM3]

Rodon or Gausman instead of JBJ / Paxton? Jansen, and keep Houck in rotation? Of course, they also could have signed E-Rod which would not have been great. But this is kind of what happens when you dabble in the market of guys who are willing to sign 1 year deals at less than $10M; there’s a reason those pitchers accept those deals. Looking back, Tyler Anderson and Wacha are probably the best value so far this off-season with mostly misses and wasted money.

If you look at the list of free agent starters from last year, seems like the majority have spent time on DL this year; so perhaps it is not surprising that so many of the Sox guys went down.

E-Rod
Stroman
Jon Gray
Matz
Kikuchi
DeSclafani
Wood
Thor
Cobb
Greinke
Heaney
Tyler Anderson
Kluber
Wacha
Pineda
Smyly
G-Rich
Hill
Bundy

Yeah... those 2 would have been interesting. A fair amount has to do with the future, though. How one feels about the remaining 4/$91m on Gausman & the fact that Rodon has a $22.5m player option next year which he only exercises if he's not worth it & is disastrous if he gets hurt this season.

I think generally ALL pitchers pose a health risk & that's why getting to a place of organizational depth is so important in modern baseball.

Will be a super interesting offseason to see what Bloom does with actual financial flexibility for the 1st time.

 

[Max Power]

If you are building a rotation via free agency, though, you are going to have to anticipate a lot of injuries because those are the kinds of pitchers who seem most likely to get hurt. Just looks the list from last years - looks like 75% or more of the pitchers who signed in the $5-$15M range got hurt. Houck and Whitlock seemed to be SP depth, but given the issues with the pen, that didn’t really happen .

I'd guess that 75% of the pitchers who signed for $0-$4.9M and the ones that signed for $15.1M+ were also injured. A pitcher who doesn't spend any time on the IL in two consecutive seasons is the outlier.

 

[bosockboy]

Here we go.

View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1554486262756741120?s=21&t=dPeoLg9oZhhxw7Z47SfXoA

 

[RedOctober3829]

Coming into this season Rodon had made 33 starts over the previous 3 seasons. The fact that he's been healthy this year is the outlier.

Gausman is the one that I wish the Red Sox would have gone after. He pitched well in 2020 in the 59 IP he had then continued it last year with a real solid 14-6 with a 2.81 ERA in 192 innings. His FIP of just over 3 pretty much matched his ERA which shows he really did pitch very well. This year, he's been snakebit in Toronto with the 7-8 record but ERA of 3.30 does not correlate with how well he's done. His FIP is 2.06.

 

[Rovin Romine]

If you are building a rotation via free agency, though, you are going to have to anticipate a lot of injuries because those are the kinds of pitchers who seem most likely to get hurt. Just looks the list from last years - looks like 75% or more of the pitchers who signed in the $5-$15M range got hurt. Houck and Whitlock seemed to be SP depth, but given the issues with the pen, that didn’t really happen .

Here's a walk down memory lane - opening day roster, 2022: https://www.mlb.com/news/red-sox-2022-opening-day-roster

Relief pitchers (10): Matt Barnes, Garrett Whitlock, Ryan Brasier, Kutter Crawford, Hansel Robles, Hirokazu Sawamura, Jake Diekman, Austin Davis, Matt Strahm, Phillips Valdez.

More than we expected:
Strahm, Crawford (over the season).

Mostly what we expected:
Whitlock (not to say he's not excellent), Diekman (exactly in keeping with his career), Davis (a notch better than 2021), Sawamura (a notch worse.)

Disappointments:
Barnes didn't return to form (as he always has when having a second half slump).
Robles regressed.
Brasier - on average so far nowhere close to his prior 5 years.

Valdez never showed his promise from 2020 - not exactly a disappointment.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

If you are building a rotation via free agency, though, you are going to have to anticipate a lot of injuries because those are the kinds of pitchers who seem most likely to get hurt. Just looks the list from last years - looks like 75% or more of the pitchers who signed in the $5-$15M range got hurt. Houck and Whitlock seemed to be SP depth, but given the issues with the pen, that didn’t really happen .

All pitchers are hurt and on the DL every year or two. That's why TINSTAPP is a thing.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

All pitchers are hurt and on the DL every year or two. That's why TINSTAPP is a thing.

Sure- which is why we probably shouldn’t act shocked when a bunch of pitchers, especially older ones with long histories of injuries, get injured. The outliers are those times when it doesn’t happen (like last year).

 

[AB in DC]

Whitlock (not to say he's not excellent), Diekman (exactly in keeping with his career), Davis (a notch better than 2021), Sawamura (a notch worse.)

Diekman went from 5.0 BB/9 in Oakland to 7.0 in boston. And that's not counting the HBPs. I'd call that a massive failure.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Sure- which is why we probably shouldn’t act shocked when a bunch of pitchers, especially older ones with long histories of injuries, get injured. The outliers are those times when it doesn’t happen (like last year).

Right, but what can one do? Sign even more old pitchers with injury histories?

 

[Mystic Merlin]

Right, but what can one do? Sign even more old pitchers with injury histories?

Develop a better young pitching pipeline, but that takes years that I fear folks will become increasingly disinclined to afford to Bloom.

 

[amfox1]

Right, but what can one do? Sign even more old pitchers with injury histories?

Develop them, and remain patient through the ups and downs of the development phase. Not a SoSH strong suit.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Right, but what can one do? Sign even more old pitchers with injury histories?

Ideally, have stronger depth in the minors or be able to better identify those who can help (TB, LAD, and the Yankees seem pretty darn good at this) and acquire them in trades? Easier said than done.

I guess in hindsight, a better plan on how to utilize Whitlock and Houck could have helped, but they were more needed in the bullpen….and then the injuries to the starters happened and it was too late for them to go back to the rotation?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Ideally, have stronger depth in the minors or be able to better identify those who can help (TB, LAD, and the Yankees seem pretty darn good at this) and acquire them in trades? Easier said than done.

I guess in hindsight, a better plan on how to utilize Whitlock and Houck could have helped, but they were more needed in the bullpen….and then the injuries to the starters happened and it was too late for them to go back to the rotation?

Right, but as others have noted, it takes time to develop that depth.

They still need pitchers to pitch at the Major League level so the best option are old pitchers with injury histories on 1 or 2 year deals as stop gaps. But you can only sign so many, and if they all get injured... I'm not sure what can really be done. At least as far as 2022 goes.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

Saw somewhere else that the Sox have scratched have elected not to start Hill from his start tomorrow and Cora has declined to give a reason. Not sure whether he's a trade candidate, but something to keep an eye on.

EDIT: Actually, think it can be better phrased as I edited it.

 

[Archer1979]

Develop them, and remain patient through the ups and downs of the development phase. Not a SoSH strong suit.

Develop a better young pitching pipeline, but that takes years that I fear folks will become increasingly disinclined to afford to Bloom.

Took the words out of my mouth. I said this earlier, but the big hope on my part was that Bloom would be able to provide some experience in development of the prospects similar to what's been fueling TB all these years. It might take a while, and I hope that SoSH has more patience on this than normal. The problem is that we also have a better insight to the Sox farm system than most, but we're really just seeing the same level of progression/success rate through the minors than we did with Theo, Ben, and DD.

 

[FloridaSoxFan11]

Soto and Josh Bell to the Padres, wow are they loaded or what

 

[Rovin Romine]

Diekman went from 5.0 BB/9 in Oakland to 7.0 in boston. And that's not counting the HBPs. I'd call that a massive failure.

By any overall measure he wasn't as good as he was in 2021 (which was one of the 3 best seasons in his career).

But he was pretty much the exact same pitcher he had been in 2019 and 2018. If you consider WHIP, he more or less traded walks for hits this year.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Soto and Josh Bell to the Padres, wow are they loaded or what

Until the Sox (or someone else) sign him in 2 years and they have no prospects to call up

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Right, but as others have noted, it takes time to develop that depth.

They still need pitchers to pitch at the Major League level so the best option are old pitchers with injury histories on 1 or 2 year deals as stop gaps. But you can only sign so many, and if they all get injured... I'm not sure what can really be done. At least as far as 2022 goes.

Agree. I guess they need to identify, acquire, and develop the Andrew Kittredge, Clay Holmes, Jeffrey Springs, Jason Adam, Matt Wisler, Lucas Luetge types. Certainly have done that with Whitlock. But, need more.

 

[nvalvo]

Sure- which is why we probably shouldn’t act shocked when a bunch of pitchers, especially older ones with long histories of injuries, get injured. The outliers are those times when it doesn’t happen (like last year).

Totally. So they set things up so that they had a ton of depth, bringing in more SP than most of us were arguing for to spread the risk around. Everyone realized that pitchers get hurt: that was why we had like twelve or thirteen viable MLB starters spread among the MLB rotation, MLB bullpen, AAA rotation, and rehabbing on the IL.

Things shook out such that options 1 (Sale), 2 (Eovaldi), 4 (Paxton), 5 (Whitlock), 6 (Hill), 7 (Wacha), 10 (Ward), and 11 (Mata) were all on the IL at the same time. (Did I miss anyone? Seabold, maybe?) The fact of pitching injuries is to be expected; the timing of those injuries is unfortunate.

(And the whole point of the Paxton deal, which people have been complaining about, is that we needed an injured pitcher returning so we could stash some of our depth on the 60-day IL.)

 

[VORP Speed]

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1554316707086336001?s=20&t=ZlXDNTQPg1xJwMVhJROBoQ

 

[nvalvo]

Until the Sox (or someone else) sign him in 2 years and they have no prospects to call up

Given their zero franchise World Series championships, they probably should be a bit more aggressive/reckless, right?

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Speaking of Paxton, looking like “wait till next year”. Do you pick up a 2 year option on a guy who has thrown 22 innings in three years?

https://www.nj.com/yankees/2022/08/red-sox-start-thinking-about-next-year-with-rehabbing-ex-yankees-pitcher.html

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Given their zero franchise World Series championships, they probably should be a bit more aggressive/reckless, right?

Absolutely. I applaud them going all out. Wish it were us. Now I'm hoping we get him for JUST money

 

[nvalvo]

Speaking of Paxton, looking like “wait till next year”. Do you pick up a 2 year option on a guy who has thrown 22 innings in three years?

https://www.nj.com/yankees/2022/08/red-sox-start-thinking-about-next-year-with-rehabbing-ex-yankees-pitcher.html

Absolutely.

edited to add some reasoning: we're going to be like 150m in AAV under the threshold, and his option is eminently reasonable. It's $13m per year, but I think the AAV should only be $11m because of how the buyout factors in. That's like Arb2 money for a high-end SP. Is there some injury risk? Sure. But that's factored into the price.

Also, for this season, we needed a starting pitcher recuperating on the IL so we could add to our rotation depth without taking up another 40-man spot.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Speaking of Paxton, looking like “wait till next year”. Do you pick up a 2 year option on a guy who has thrown 22 innings in three years?

https://www.nj.com/yankees/2022/08/red-sox-start-thinking-about-next-year-with-rehabbing-ex-yankees-pitcher.html

I know we're killing time, but this has nothing to do with the trade deadline.

The Sox have until the off-season to evaulate Paxton. So maybe they'll see how he recovers and throws this year. Seems like the totally normal thing to do. There's a thread on it somewhere.

 

[8slim]

Given their zero franchise World Series championships, they probably should be a bit more aggressive/reckless, right?

Yeah, I don't get the shade people throw here. They've had 1 winning season in the past decade. SD is a good team in a difficult division, and they're pushing their chips in. Seems like they've tried to build "the right way" and it hasn't worked. Might as well try a different approach.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I know we're killing time, but this has nothing to do with the trade deadline.

The Sox have until the off-season to evaulate Paxton. So maybe they'll see how he recovers and throws this year. Seems like the totally normal thing to do. There's a thread on it somewhere.

So sorry.

Will move to the Paxton thread.

 

[Rovin Romine]

So sorry. Of course the inability of Paxton to provide a boost seems relevant to how the Sox evaluate their assets and needs, as well as their playoff chances, no? And potentially impacts what they are looking for in trades for next year.

Will move to the Paxton thread.

You were asking whether the Sox should pick up his option. That's entirely premature. If you want to talk about when he's due to return and how effective we expect him to be, and whether they should be trading for SP help, why not just talk about that.

 

[Max Power]

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1554316707086336001?s=20&t=ZlXDNTQPg1xJwMVhJROBoQ

They want to make Jackie Bradley feel better about his offense this year.

 

[soxhop411]

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1554500636766502912

When the Red Sox made their blockbuster salary dump to the Dodgers in 2012, Josh Beckett had 10/5 rights, so he gave his teammates (Adrián González, Carl Crawford, and Nick Punto) the option of scuttling the deal if anyone didn’t want to go to LA.

Was this ever known/Public knowledge before?

 

[walt in maryland]

7th according to Spotrac, and closer to 14th than 4th. But sorry to ruin your pile-on

Also, the Braves just locked up Austin Riley for 10 years today, coming off a World Series win. Explain to me what stopped John Henry from doing that with Devers?

If you think Devers is agreeing to a contract with a $21 million AAV, you're delusional

 

[Ferm Sheller]

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1554500636766502912


Was this ever known/Public knowledge before?

The funny thing is that those guys seemed to climb over each other to get to LA (leave Boston).

 

[walt in maryland]

I don't know. It sounds like horseshit to me.

Vaz was traded for two prospects (decent looking ones.)
Diekman was traded for Vaz's replacement, McGuire, who is overall, hitting worse than JBJ, albeit in a SSS.

Effects:

1) Overall, catcher is a major downgrade offensively, and a minor one defensively.

2) Pitching is technically a downgrade. Diekman's ERA+ is a notch over league average. They need an above average pitcher to replace him for this to be an upgrade. But they do have a lot of moving parts. Essentially, at the moment, Barnes is his replacement. That could be good or farcical.

3) OF is technically a sorta-maybe-upgrade. Pham might be an upgrade over anyone in the OF if he started hitting again, but he's got an OPS of .500 in July. So who knows? He's likely to be good against LHP, with a moderate rebound. If he starts hitting righties again he'll be a solid OF addition. But if Verdugo picked it up again, he'd be great. . .so it's like that.

We really need to wait until the deadline passes before making broad comments. They'll definitely acquire another catcher, either today or in the off-season

 

[scotian1]

So Bloom is getting close to the end of his third year in control of this team. His first season as GM the Sox finished last in their division, the second year they gained a wild card spot on the final day of the season and surprised us in the playoffs, this year the sadly could finish last in their division again. After 3 years are you confident that our prospects are going to lead this team back to playoff glory in near future? It just bothers me that after 3 years the roster continues to show no improvement.

 

[Van Everyman]

The funny thing is that those guys seemed to climb over each other to get to LA (leave Boston).

Obligatory:

 

[walt in maryland]

Forgive the highly subjective, speculative nature of this: I think Bloom feels a little trapped between his desire to really rebuild (which might include a couple losing last place seasons), and the pressure to win in the Boston market. He may have underestimated the heat he'd feel from the fan base/Boston media market, if he didn't go all in. And I think the success of 2021 took him by surprise. It should have had him pivot to more of a GFIN mode, but that just wasn't in his preconception for how he/it was gonna proceed. So, he's been kinda caught, trying to split the difference. But splitting the difference may be the worst of all choices in its outcomes.

Alternately, he thinks Pham and McGuire will help them to the postseason. In which case needs a check up, right quick.

Bloom is not the GM. He is president of baseball OPS. GM Brian O'Halloran works for him.

 

[ponch73]

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1554500636766502912

That's like me double checking with all of the pretty girls in high school if they would rather go to Prom with me instead of with the captains of the football team.

 

[Max Power]

Obligatory:

View attachment 53854

10 years is an eternity in cell phone camera technology.

 

[joe dokes]

So Bloom is getting close to the end of his third year in control of this team. His first season as GM the Sox finished last in their division, the second year they gained a wild card spot on the final day of the season and surprised us in the playoffs, this year the sadly could finish last in their division again.

That's one way of looking at it.

After 3 years are you confident that our prospects are going to lead this team back to playoff glory in near future? It just bothers me that after 3 years the roster continues to show no improvement.

Prospects alone? No. But if that's what you want, then 3 years (including one in which there was no minor league baseball) is not enough, as it generally takes longer to go from "drafted prospect" to "major leaguer."

 

[jezza1918]

So Bloom is getting close to the end of his third year in control of this team. His first season as GM the Sox finished last in their division, the second year they gained a wild card spot on the final day of the season and surprised us in the playoffs, this year the sadly could finish last in their division again. After 3 years are you confident that our prospects are going to lead this team back to playoff glory in near future? It just bothers me that after 3 years the roster continues to show no improvement.

I posted this in the Vaz thread last night, but probably fits better here -

"So this is this third season with him at the helm...and in 1/3 of those seasons they were a couple wins away from competing in the World Series. If that trend continues I’ll be happy with Bloom (obviously I’d hope that in some of those appearances they actually advance...and win it all).
Probably could go in a different thread but bottom line is Bloom trying to turn the sox into the Dodgers takes time. I think step 1 - stocking the farm system - is pretty close to complete. Step 2a is having a few of those guys performing well at the major league level, so you can afford the higher priced guys in their primes. I realize it’s simplifying it a bit but having Walker Buehler pitching like an ace for almost no money last makes it easier to pay Kershaw like an ace even though he didn’t pitch like one. Step 2b is keeping the correct young guys in the fold...on that front I will be disappointed if Devers isn’t resigned (while also understanding if he wants 12 for 450 I’ll understand why the Sox don’t give it to him). And as has been alluded to in other threads, competing at the major league level while trying to (and if rankings are any indication, succeeding) completely overhaul the minor league system isn’t easy."

To more directly answer your question about confidence in the prospects Id say Im FAR more confident today than I was when Bloom first started...and that again, it's only one step in a process that doesn't happen overnight.

 

[BaseballJones]

So Bloom is getting close to the end of his third year in control of this team. His first season as GM the Sox finished last in their division, the second year they gained a wild card spot on the final day of the season and surprised us in the playoffs, this year the sadly could finish last in their division again. After 3 years are you confident that our prospects are going to lead this team back to playoff glory in near future? It just bothers me that after 3 years the roster continues to show no improvement.

The ORGANIZATION is much better off though. It takes time to build the kind of machine Bloom is building. And in the meanwhile, as he overhauls the organization, they've been competitive. Which is pretty good.

 

[snowmanny]

The funny thing is that those guys seemed to climb over each other to get to LA (leave Boston).

Well LA was on the verge of a title and Boston was in decline.