RG3 and Out

[Jnai]

I realize there's a post about it in the game thread, but apparently, RG3 has been shut down for the season. Why? Not really sure, but it seems to be a case of hellenic flu.
 

“I’m sure everybody knows by now that coach decided to shut me down for the rest of the season. We talked, I talked to coach, he talked to me about it. I expressed my desire to play,” Griffin said. ” He explained to me his reasoning. At the end of the day, coach’s decision is what we go with.”

 
Apparently, the new starter, Kirk Cousins, is not really on board either:

“Even as I start this week, I believe that this is Robert’s team going forward into next season,” Cousins said. “The reason they’re resting Robert is because this is his team, he is the franchise quarterback. They wouldn’t rest him if that wasn’t the case. So my job is to help this team get a win against Atlanta and then the last two weeks after that. I’m going to try to excel in my role as a backup quarterback to Robert.”

 
(both from profootballtalk.com)
 
So... this is pretty shocking, right? RG3 went from media darling and new face of the NFL to injured to bad to benched in the span of 1.5 years or so.

 

[PseuFighter]

this is gold:
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQf2kzKbT10

 

[wutang112878]

Maybe if they did this to start the season, and let him recover, they wouldnt be in this predicament

 

[DJnVa]

 RG3 went from media darling and new face of the NFL to injured to bad to benched in the span of 1.5 years or so
 

 
Was he really bad this year though? Without a preseason, coming back from a bad injury:
 
Griffin: 60.2%, 3200 yards, 16/12, 7.02 YPA, 82.2 rating
Luck: 58.6%, 3100 yards, 19/8, 6.72 YPA, 85.4 rating
 
 

Wait, so letting Griffin play on a severely busted knee was a bad idea?
 

 
Heh. So he's hurt worse now than before huh?

 

[DJnVa]

I was talking about the playoff game last January where he got injured. The Redskins have themselves to blame.

 
I know. I was agreeing with you.

 

[tims4wins]

I prefer RG3and10...

 

[Dogman]

I think this is the first time the Shanny has looked somewhat competent in his decision making regarding RG3.  Of course, all of this is completely his own fault in the first place so that proves that Snyder is a racist.

 

[Phragle]

Makes sense to me. RG3 still isn't 100% and still take a lot of hits, their playoff hopes gone, and they want him 100% for next year. This is a week late IMO.
 
They also want to showcase Kirk Cousins for a potential offseason trade.

 

[jk333]

 
Was he really bad this year though? Without a preseason, coming back from a bad injury:
 
Griffin: 60.2%, 3200 yards, 16/12, 7.02 YPA, 82.2 rating
Luck: 58.6%, 3100 yards, 19/8, 6.72 YPA, 85.4 rating

Their stats are comparable but their play isn't if you've watched both. RG3 has been terrible all season. In his first 3 games the Redskins were down by multiple touchdowns and he piled up passing stats and TDs in garbage time. He did the same versus Philadelphia. He also continues to be a turnover machine with 23 fumbles in 28 career games. 
 
RG3 also has Alfred Morris/Roy Helu while Luck has Trent Richardson. 

 

[Winger 03]

The back-to-back-to-back press conferences for Cousins - Griffin - Shanny were a great listen.
 
Should have sat him until the WK 5 bye to start the season.

 

[TheYaz67]

This is just apparently a Shanny/Snyder/RGIII powerplay.  Shanny is trying to finally assert some control over RG3, which he should have done during the last offseason.  He is unhappy with the RG3/Snyder dynamic, and trying to get himself fired (collect $7M next year), and thinks RG3 will run to Danny Boy complaining to try and reverse this, which he won't.  Then he will get fired, and no one in their right mind will come to coach the team next year, despite how much $ Snyder throws around....

 

[Trlicek's Whip]

This is just apparently a Shanny/Snyder/RGIII powerplay.  Shanny is trying to finally assert some control over RG3, which he should have done during the last offseason.  He is unhappy with the RG3/Snyder dynamic, and trying to get himself fired (collect $7M next year), and thinks RG3 will run to Danny Boy complaining to try and reverse this, which he won't.  Then he will get fired, and no one in their right mind will come to coach the team next year, despite how much $ Snyder throws around....

 
I'm already running alternate universes in my head where Rex Ryan is HC of the 2014 Washington Hogs.

 

[sodenj5]

RG3rd string.

 

[DJnVa]

 and no one in their right mind will come to coach the team next year, despite how much $ Snyder throws around....

 
Wrong.
 
There 32 NFL head coaching jobs. Lot's of people will want it.

 

[dcmissle]

Disgrace all around:
 
1.  Snyder -- jock sniffing owner, whose befriending of players again eroded chain of command and sunk team morale.
 
2.  RGIII -- a Machiavel.  He has not accomplished very much in this League, but his passive/aggressive undermining of Shanahan was very effective.
 
3.  Shanahan -- there is no excuse for his self-serving, leaked disclosures last Sunday.  He is out for himself and himself only, having out-Tuna'ed Parcells in this instance.
 
A decent case can be made that Snyder will never win, except rarely and by accident.  Ditto RGIII as long as he is here.  And I'd be reluctant to hire Shanahan, so losers all.
 
For those out of town -- imagine thinking that you have emerged, finally, as a Red Sox fan from the terrible drama of 2011-12, only to find yourself back in it.
 
Loserville.

 

[mascho]

 
Long term, however, this is likely the best thing for RG3's development as an NFL QB.  He spent this offseason rehabbing.  Now he can get to work becoming proficient from the pocket and regaining strength in his legs, so he can be dangerous throwing and running next season.  

 

[mauf]

 
Was he really bad this year though? Without a preseason, coming back from a bad injury:
 
Griffin: 60.2%, 3200 yards, 16/12, 7.02 YPA, 82.2 rating
Luck: 58.6%, 3100 yards, 19/8, 6.72 YPA, 85.4 rating
 
 

 
 
 
More proof that QB play can't be evaluated wholly independently from team W-L record.
 
Griffin might never regain the explosive running ability he flashed as a rookie, but he made accurate throws downfield last year. This year, not so much. There's no reason to think that skill is gone forever. Give him an offseason to heal, and a full preseason to mesh with his teammates and new coach, and I think he'll be an above-average QB again next season.

 

[nolasoxfan]

 
I'm already running alternate universes in my head where Rex Ryan is HC of the 2014 Washington Hogs Potomacs.

Honestly, I don’t know why they don’t make this name switch.  Honor a regional indigenous group and even keep the logo, though I would imagine that the spear version would be much more acceptable to most.

 

[LondonSox]

So the Rams are probably thinking that this wasn't such a bad trade these days huh.
Last year they were completely being ripped now they are going to get a similar pick to what they gave up in a better draft, plus the other picks they already got.

 

[Kliq]

Disgrace all around:
 
1.  Snyder -- jock sniffing owner, whose befriending of players again eroded chain of command and sunk team morale.
 
2.  RGIII -- a Machiavel.  He has not accomplished very much in this League, but his passive/aggressive undermining of Shanahan was very effective.
 
3.  Shanahan -- there is no excuse for his self-serving, leaked disclosures last Sunday.  He is out for himself and himself only, having out-Tuna'ed Parcells in this instance.
 
A decent case can be made that Snyder will never win, except rarely and by accident.  Ditto RGIII as long as he is here.  And I'd be reluctant to hire Shanahan, so losers all.
 
For those out of town -- imagine thinking that you have emerged, finally, as a Red Sox fan from the terrible drama of 2011-12, only to find yourself back in it.
 
Loserville.

 
You coud add a 4th for the media. Can't believe how dynamic he was this off-season, with the ridiculos ESPN sepcial and all the press coverage about his rehab. They got everyone excited and grealty increased the pressure on RG3 to start week 1.
 
If Cousins plays really well to close out the season, do you trade him or keep him? Obviously you can trade him to fill out your team, but do the Skins really want to trade away a competent pro quarterback when they don't really know how much they can get out of RG3?

 

[mascho]

If you are going to go that route, perhaps a 5th for Adidas?
 

 

[Phragle]

So the Rams are probably thinking that this wasn't such a bad trade these days huh.
Last year they were completely being ripped now they are going to get a similar pick to what they gave up in a better draft, plus the other picks they already got.

 
A similarly high pick and in a better draft, but value wise the 2nd pick in 2012 was worth way more than any pick in this draft. 
 

If Cousins plays really well to close out the season, do you trade him or keep him? Obviously you can trade him to fill out your team, but do the Skins really want to trade away a competent pro quarterback when they don't really know how much they can get out of RG3?

 
Depends what they can get back for him. 

 

[dcmissle]

I hope for Cousins' sake he can get the hell out of here to a better spot.  He has handled this with nothing but class.
 
It will be interesting to see how well he plays and how that might impact his trade value. 

 

[Stitch01]

I dont give RG III a total pass, he seems like he has some maturing to do, but I wouldnt put much of the blame on him either given the Snyder/Shanahan "leadership" in place.  Shanahan playing him in the second half of that Wild Card game last year was borderline criminal.

 

[Super Nomario]

 
If Cousins plays really well to close out the season, do you trade him or keep him? Obviously you can trade him to fill out your team, but do the Skins really want to trade away a competent pro quarterback when they don't really know how much they can get out of RG3?

If Washington can get a high pick for Cousins (a 2nd at least, though you have to think about a 3rd), they should do it; they need a talent infusion. The cap penalty from the Haynesworth contract has been hurting them in addition to the lost picks from the RGIII trade. A good backup QB isn't really a luxury they can afford. Cousins looks competent, but I doubt he has the kind of career that makes them regret dealing him. If RGIII gets hurt again next year, that's a higher pick in the 2015 draft - who cares if there's a dropoff from Cousins to Rex Grossman or whoever?

 

[Bellhorn]

More proof that QB play can't be evaluated wholly independently from team W-L record.
 

No, it's not. It's more proof that QB play (or any play in general, for that matter) can't be evaluated wholly independently of game and opponent context. Jk333 already provided the correct explanation above: his raw yardage stats have largely been elevated by garbage time performance. This is fully borne out by DVOA, where he ranks 31st (Luck is 17th.)

The list of "fundamental theorems of football analysis" should definitely include the following two items:

1) DVOA > unadjusted yardage stats
2) Attempts to evaluate players via correlation with team W-L record are (nearly) as moronic as they are in baseball.

 

[SMU_Sox]

DVOA% for QB's is like single season UZR in baseball. It captures 60% of what happened with a high margin of error. If someone wants me to expound I will. If not let's just leave it at "take it with a grain of salt"

 

[DJnVa]

No, it's not. It's more proof that QB play (or any play in general, for that matter) can't be evaluated wholly independently of game and opponent context. Jk333 already provided the correct explanation above: his raw yardage stats have largely been elevated by garbage time performance.

 
He's actually thrown for almost as many yards in the 2nd quarter as he has in the 4th. Basically he's been great in the 2nd quarter, good in the 4th, and bad in the 1st and 3rd. That bad 1st quarter plays into the Skins getting behind and being out of the game quickly.
 
And yeah, I know context matters, I was just surprised to see how close the overall numbers were.

 

[crystalline]

DVOA% for QB's is Any "advanced statistic" in football is like single season UZR in baseball. It captures 60% of what happened with a high margin of error. If someone wants me to expound I will. If not let's just leave it at "take it with a grain of salt"

 
Fixed. 
 
 
On topic: RG3 is incredibly fun to watch when healthy.  Agreed with whoever said this "benching" is the first smart decision Shanahan has made with RG3 in two years.
 
I think he needs a coach who will make him slide and protect himself.  It sure seems like Pete Carroll has done this with Russell Wilson. 
But maybe it can't be taught.  With Vick, perhaps Andy Reid was too rigid to coach that, but I assume Chip Kelly would have tried it, and Vick still got hit too much this year.

 

[soxhop411]

RGIII bragged about his influence over Snyder
 

 
So why are the Redskins sensitive about the perception that quarterback Robert Griffin III’s input regarding the coaching hire means he has too much influence over the team?  Possibly because perception is reality.
According to Sally Jenkins of the Washington Post, Griffin has “bragged to teammates that he could procure favors from the owner andinfluence the franchise’s direction.”  Jenkins cites unnamed “insiders” in support of the report.
She also writes that Griffin engaged in “fierce finger-pointing tensions with his wide receivers” during the quarterback’s second season.
The disclosures come in a broader column from Jenkins underscoring the importance of the new coach’s relationship with Griffin to the immediate and long-term future of the franchise.  Indeed, unless owner Daniel Snyder intends to allow the new coach to pick between Griffin and Kirk Cousins or to look elsewhere for a new quarterback, it’s critical that the new coach be able to establish the right relationship with Griffin.
That makes it even more critical that the Redskins find the right coach — not the guy who says all the right things before he signs his contract but the guy who will embrace Griffin and not try to demonstrate to the quarterback that there’s a new sheriff in town.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/01/06/report-rgiii-bragged-about-his-influence-over-snyder/

 

[dcmissle]

I wish for the sake of Redskins fans that I could dismiss this as the work of the bad Sally Jenkins. You know, the duplicitous Lance Armstrong apologist.

But unfortunately it rings true. RGIII had proven to be quite the manipulative politician, dangerously cynical because he successfully cultivated an image as a straight shooting, solid son of two military parents.

You know who you can't fool? Your teammates. Good Christ this is shaping up as a nightmare.

 

[Stitch01]

Semi-related thought exercise: what happens to the Pats if the Bledsoe-Brady stuff happens under the Grier-Carroll regime before Kraft figured out to leave the football decisions (for the most part) to the football guys?

I think the conclusion the article draws about the new coach is exactly wrong and that organization is going to be a mess as long as as Snyder doesn't change the structure starting at the top.

RGIII is ultimately accountable for his actions, but man has he been given a shitty support system (and a coach that blew out his knee to boot). If the organization doesn't change at the top, the next guy they bring in will fail too

 

[Old Fart Tree]

RGIII is ultimately accountable for his actions, but man has he been given a shitty support system (and a coach that blew out his knee to boot). If the organization doesn't change at the top, the next guy they bring in will fail too

that organization is going to be a mess as long as as Snyder doesn't change the structure starting at the top.

 
Also, water is wet.

 

[Stitch01]

Pretty much, but I don't think the problem is RGIII. If he's back at full health he will succeed in a good organization IMHO.

 

[dcmissle]

Let me guess.

The switch is never made, or made later, because Bledsoe goes over Carroll's head to BG. And maybe kid Kraft gets involved too. So it ends up costing one SB at least.

Bob Kraft paid for a brutally expensive lesson. A dysfunctional GM/HC tandem, and a passel of high draft picks -- for Parcells and Martin -- pissed away. But at least he learned.

With Snyder we are at 15 years and counting.

The best you can about RGIII in this is that he is an immature 23 year old, poorly served by Snyder and everyone else. Which means that he is the polar opposite of one Andrew Luck.

 

[Stitch01]

Yeah I'd agree. Bledsoe gets the job back and the head coach gets undermined and who knows what happens next?

When put that way that you did and given the owner in Indy I'm upgrading my thoughts on Pagano.

Snyder definitely is who he is. Giants and Eagles have to love the way divisions ended up.

 

[crystalline]

The benching by Shanahan now takes on a new cast.

 

[loshjott]

The benching by Shanahan now takes on a new cast.

 
It was actually cast this way by some in the media when it happened. The Jenkins column is putting more details on the RGIII-Snyder relationship that people were already talking about. One of Snyder's many failings as an owner is his tendency to suck up to star players and give them unfettered access to him, bypassing coaches. Clinton Portis is the prime example.

 

[H78]

RGIII bragged about his influence over Snyder
 
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/01/06/report-rgiii-bragged-about-his-influence-over-snyder/

 

 

[VBSoxFan]

Figured this was the best place for this: Jay Gruden is reportedly the next head coach of the Washington Redskins.
 
He has been the offensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals for the last three seasons, all of them resulting in playoff appearances. The linked article mentions that Gruden has been praised for his work with Andy Dalton, who has thrown for 3,000 yards in each of the last three seasons, playoff flameouts notwithstanding.
 
I haven't watched a lot of Bengals games the last three years so I don't know much about Gruden's offensive philosophies nor do I don't have a take on how he plans to utilize RG3. They Bengals have have improved in team offense each of the last three years. I think that bodes well.
 
Edit: Missed mention of this hire in the carousel thread...

 

[wutang112878]

I'm shocked that Gruden would choose to have his first, and maybe only, head coaching job be in such a dysfunctional environment.  Then again, he is accustomed to having awful ownership while he has been with the Bengals, so I guess he has some experience in chaos which is a positive for him.
 
I really dont understand why he gets so much credit for his 'work' with Dalton.  Daltons TD/INT ratio has been awful: 20/13, 27/16 and 33/20, and the past 2 years he has thrown 1 pick for every ~30 passes, thats putrid.  If he didnt have Green to throw to and generate most of his good production he would probably be considered a career backup by now.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

I'm shocked that Gruden would choose to have his first, and maybe only, head coaching job be in such a dysfunctional environment.  Then again, he is accustomed to having awful ownership while he has been with the Bengals, so I guess he has some experience in chaos which is a positive for him.
 
I really dont understand why he gets so much credit for his 'work' with Dalton.  Daltons TD/INT ratio has been awful: 20/13, 27/16 and 33/20, and the past 2 years he has thrown 1 pick for every ~30 passes, thats putrid.  If he didnt have Green to throw to and generate most of his good production he would probably be considered a career backup by now.

 
It seems that most guys who get a NFL head coaching job get 2 shots at it, unless you become a retread head coach. The Skins job isn't horrible outside of the owner. If he makes a go of it, does OK, then gets fired in a couple years, then he can blame ownership and get another job.
 
The other option, which you already made the point of, is to lose the shine on him, stick with Andy Dalton for a few more years and be exposed. Might as well take your shot when you get it. Plus he's probably tripling his $1.3m salary.

 

[LondonSox]

 
It seems that most guys who get a NFL head coaching job get 2 shots at it, unless you become a retread head coach. The Skins job isn't horrible outside of the owner. If he makes a go of it, does OK, then gets fired in a couple years, then he can blame ownership and get another job.
 
The other option, which you already made the point of, is to lose the shine on him, stick with Andy Dalton for a few more years and be exposed. Might as well take your shot when you get it. Plus he's probably tripling his $1.3m salary.

Isn't a horrible job outside of the owner?

They have no number 1 pick, which should be second overall. Their most consistent defensive player retired. Their supposed defensive superpower is a free agent. Their cap is a mess.
We don't know what rg3 is. He has had multiple knee surgeries and he hasn't learnt to avoid taking insane hits every game. Like vick. Who could never stay healthy.

They have a maybe stud maybe not qb, a good left tackle a solid rb and a solid wr (garcon) and basically nothing else on o. On d they have kerrigan and Erm.... Not much.

This team needs to get out of its cap mess in the next year or so and without a top pick that isn't made easier. But their owner won't accept not signing some big free agent every year so it the cap never gets healthy.

To me they have a terrible situation in talent, draft picks, cap, owner and a political disaster in play for the superstar of the team.

Their main advantage is the Cowboys are a mildly better but aging team in a similar situation. The Giants are a bit odd and a big question mark. The Eagles are potentially on the up but aren't GOOD yet. So in this division with a last place schedule they will have a shot.

To me the casual racists are a bottom 10-5 job as head coach.

 

[dcmissle]

Redskins' cap not a mess.  Shanny did not go on a spending spree, and Redskins are out of the two-year penalty.
 
So there will be money to spend, though that has often not yielded much in the past.  And the needs are plenty, as you note. 

 

[Devizier]

I just want to say this: Whatever the internal issues with Griffin and Snyder were, I refuse to believe that Shanahan is the good guy in any situation. Fuck that guy.

 

[LondonSox]

I had forgotten about the cap penalty ending, so it looks like they have around 28mm in cap space, but they are losing London Fletcher, Brandon Meriweather, Josh Morgan, Brian Orakpo from a crappy roster with no first round pick.

It's fine but there are a lot of holes to fill. Should be an interesting offseason. They need a new secondary, a new middle linebacker at least, orakpo back or another pass rusher, help on the d-line, a wide receiver and help on the offensive line.

 

[soxfan121]

3. One of my biggest takeaways from Patriots-[Washington] joint practices was surprise that Robert Griffin III didn’t look like the best quarterback on his own team. In fact, I thought Kirk Cousins was better than him, from the perspective of running the offense, fine-tuned mechanics and how decisively the ball came out of his hand. I wondered if I was alone, and then heard the same sentiment echoed by some others in the Patriots organization. 
 

 
Noted bomb-thrower and controversy magnet Mike Reiss. 
 
No Shanahans to blame, either.

 

[Jnai]

This thread is old, but with news he's now injured long-term again:
 
...what's his job status going to be like on the other side of this most recent leg injury?
...will he ever be able to stay healthy?
...will this be one of the largest draft busts ever?

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

For the player who had (statistically) the best rookie QB season ever, this is a sad development. 
 
I do think the investment side of things (both financially & trade-wise) is too big for RGIII to not get a legit shot a starter when he comes back. 
 
However, what do they do with Cousins? They can't possibly trade him with RG's continued injuries and can't afford to sit him if he's performing better than the beleaguered QB. 
 
On a light-hearted note, as another poster suggested Washington Griffins would be a fine new name for the franchise, if RGIII ever comes back as a dependable, injury-free tsunami he was in year 1.

 

[mauf]

RG3 arguably should've been league MVP in 2012, when he single-handedly led WAS to a division title. That's enough to keep him off the list of historic draft busts, even if he never plays another down.

I'm not sold on Cousins being more than a solid backup, so I expect RG3 will get his job back and have every opportunity to succeed, even if he's unlikely to replicate that 2012 season.