RG3 and Out

[Stitch01]

Mostly agree.  I would hate Shanahan with the white hot fire of a thousand suns if I was a Skins fan for leaving him out there in that playoff game. 
 
I'd almost certainly give RG III his job back and the rest of the season as starter at worst if his health allows for it.  Looking less likely RG III is the answer at QB, but Cousins certainly isn't, and they need to find out if they need one sooner rather than later.

 

[theapportioner]

He'll get another legitimate chance, and with Washington. But he's at 3rd down, so to speak...

 

[Old Fart Tree]

Shanahan deserves all of the ire that he's gotten and more. That was just indefensible.

 

[soxfan121]

This thread is old, but with news he's now injured long-term again:
 
...what's his job status going to be like on the other side of this most recent leg injury?
...will he ever be able to stay healthy?
...will this be one of the largest draft busts ever?

 
1. If Cousins plays like he did yesterday (22/33, no turnovers), it will be very interesting to see how aggressive Washington is when bringing RG3. It is possible that they keep Griffin stapled to the bench "for his future health) if Cousins plays well and keeps them in contention for the playoffs. 
 
2. No. His playing style is reckless and he seems to have ligament/tendon stiffness issues, leading to more injuries. 
 
3. Hell yes. The price they paid is only worth it if he ends up a Hall of Famer. One season of good results and a playoff loss is not worth THREE first round picks, plus more goodies. It was a stupid starfucking move when they did it originally and it's a really stupid starfucking move now. But that's what happens when the owner is a starfucker.

 

[Stitch01]

It was a high risk move, I don't think its nearly as stupid as you make it out to be, particularly given the ability he showed the first year.  Elite QB's are work way more than three first round picks IMO

 

[soxfan121]

1. He was not "elite" his rookie year; Luck was marginally better and they both were some distance off the Big Four (Rodgers, Brady, Manning, Brees). 
 
2. Even if he was "elite", one year two serious injuries ago isn't sufficient ROI. Three seasons and a Super Bowl? Now we're talking being worth the price (hi Eli!). 
 
3. I'd pull a link detailing the haul of players STL got in exchange. I'd rather have STL's roster than WAS's any day and twice on Sunday. That Bradford was a stiff and is now hurt probably gets them another top five pick with another chance at franchise QB. STL will win a super bowl before Washington, IMO, because they have a deeper, broader roster. Due to the RG3 trade. It was dumb then and it's really dumb now.

 

[dcmissle]

Someone asked in another thread when this switch would be made. I said only in 2 circumstances: a) an early season injury and Cousins balls out the rest of the season or b) RGIII plays the entire season and falls on his face.

And even then, with so much invested in RGIII, either would get Cousins only a legit shot at competing for the job next year.

Well we got Door a) and it should be interesting. Cousins is not without talent or weapons on this team.

 

[Stitch01]

1) Of course he wasn't elite his rookie year.  Being marginally worse than Luck certainly isnt a bad start on the road to being a top quarterback, and I think Luck is a pretty good bet to be an elite QB.
2) No, if his career ended today he for sure didnt provide three 1sts + worth of value.  Skins obviously didnt know that he would get hurt when drafting him (guys get hurt, which is why I totally agree it was high risk, but the expectation isn't multiple major injuries.  More broadly, I agree their owner is the core problem with the organization, just dont feel this move was all that bad)
3) St. Louis received: DT Michael Brockers, CB Janoris Jenkins, RB Isaiah Pead, G Rokevious Watkins, LB Alec Ogletree, WR Stedman Bailey, RB Zac Stacy, OT Greg Robinson.  Would you trade all those guys all for Andrew Luck on a rookie deal?  I think I would pretty easily.  You can argue RG III was so far below Luck that the trade was silly and Id completely understand that viewpoint and wouldnt argue much, but I think calling it really dumb is a bit strong.  At least they didnt use a #3 overall on Trent Richardson or (if we're judging by results) use the #5 overall on Justin Blackmon.

 

[soxfan121]

3) St. Louis received: DT Michael Brockers, CB Janoris Jenkins, RB Isaiah Pead, G Rokevious Watkins, LB Alec Ogletree, WR Stedman Bailey, RB Zac Stacy, OT Greg Robinson.  Would you trade all those guys all for Andrew Luck on a rookie deal?  I think I would pretty easily.  You can argue RG III was so far below Luck that the trade was silly and Id completely understand that viewpoint and wouldnt argue much, but I think calling it really dumb is a bit strong.  At least they didnt use a #3 overall on Trent Richardson or (if we're judging by results) use the #5 overall on Justin Blackmon.

 
Brockers is developing into an above-average or better interior DT with pass rush skills. Robinson is a potential franchise LT, who might man the position for a decade or more if everything goes according to plan. Ogletree is at least a league-average LB with good coverage skills who can play all three downs. Jenkins might never be a top-tier CB but he is a solid starter at this point. Pead is a rotation back, Stacy might be a bit better than that,  Bailey has shown little and Watkins is an interior OL and is at least on the roster. 
 
So...a potential franchise LT, potential above-average starters at DT, CB and WLB, two rotation RB, a WR and a backup G? Eight roster spots on rookie deals, four significant contributors.
 
I think trading all that for a QB who turns out to be more hype than long-term hope and with serious injury problems should cost a GM his job. You're right - no one trades Luck for that. Or Wilson. But Wilson was also a 3rd round pick and has a Super Bowl ring. 
 
But if you don't get a "keeper", its a dumb decision. And it gets dumber with every missed game. Soon, RG3 will have missed more starts than games played. 

 

[Stitch01]

If we're judging on results, of course it looks horrible (and I actually think the Rams did a middling job at best with those assets, so I'd actually ascribe a higher value to the Rams package than what they actually got), but I think expecting Skins management to know RG III would get hurt multiple times is a little bit too much to ask of them (telling the coach not to play the guy they had bet the near-term future of their entire fucking franchise on?  Oh yeah, that shit's on them) . They gambled on RG III being a franchise QB, he was extremely good as a rookie and flashed that type of talent, then he got hurt because of a really dumb decision by the coach.  Definitely a high risk move, possible they didn't evaluate the player right if some of the whispers of coachability and development work out definitely problems with ownership, but I don't think it was a really terrible gamble given what we saw from pre-injury RG III.  If he's a franchise QB, even what they traded was a steal.  Id much rather roll the dice on that then draft a RB 3rd overall ever (and he busted to boot).  The former would annoy me if it didn't work and I was a fan of the team, the latter would make me immediately want everyone fired.

 

[soxfan121]

That's a good point Stitch. I think the coachability issue is actually his biggest problem and I'm not sure they could have known how that would have played out when they drafted him. 
 
We can A-T-D on the value of the assets the Rams got; I think a franchise LT is the second-most important position on the field, followed by left corner and pass-rusher and they got all three (assuming they continue to build on last season/potential).
 
And yeah - Shanahan might have crippled the franchise and the player with that decision. That was really, really, really stupid.

 

[MarcSullivaFan]

By what measure was Luck better than RGIII their rookie year? I'm pretty sure RGIII beat him in every conceivable metric.

 

[coremiller]

By what measure was Luck better than RGIII their rookie year? I'm pretty sure RGIII beat him in every conceivable metric.

 
Yup.  RG3 was 4th in ANY/A, 3rd in rating, 7th in DVOA, 11th in DYAR.  Luck was 20th in ANY/A, 26th in rating, 19th in DVOA, 19th in DYAR.  Griffin added 815 yards rushing at 7.42 Y/A, while Luck had 270 yards rushing at 6.42 Y/A.  Griffin played an easy schedule, but DVOA and DYAR correct for that.  Luck threw far more passes (627 vs 393) but was way less efficient.  Both of them joined teams that had sucked the previous year, and neither had great supporting casts.

 

[dcmissle]

And yet it's almost irrelevant at this point because Luck stays on the field and RGIII cannot. And it is a fair question after the injury at Baylor, the torn up knee in 2012 and now this ankle whether RGIII can remain on the field consistently and, if so, whether the athleticism of 2012 can be recaptured.

And even if it could be, RGIII made clear last year that he does not want to be what he was in 2012. He wants to be a more conventional pocket QB.

As such, he is not close to Luck, even remotely. Even his staunchest champions here concede that straight up.

 

[MarcSullivaFan]

Not arguing that. As much as it's fair and reasonable to be skeptical of RGIII's ability to stay on the field--and therefore his longterm chances of success, he also deserves credit for an excellent rookie year. We know he has the ability to be a very good player if he's healthy. That's all.

 

[86spike]

Not arguing that. As much as it's fair and reasonable to be skeptical of RGIII's ability to stay on the field--and therefore his longterm chances of success, he also deserves credit for an excellent rookie year. We know he has the ability to be a very good player if he's healthy. That's all.

I'm not sure we do know that in the context of him being a conventional pocket passer (which is what his new coaches want him to be). We've seen no success in that role.