Running Back Watch: Ridley, White, Finch, Gray??

[Eric Ampersand]

The Bolden vs. Finch vs. Gray battle is pretty interesting. Bolden offers value in that he's a solid runner, receiver and he also covers kicks & punts. He doesn't do any of those things above league average, but it allows him to not only make the team, but also make the active roster every week. Gray, in my opinion, has better natural run skills than Bolden or even BJGE. However, unlike those two, he doesn't cover kicks & punts, or return kicks. It's hard having a backup RB who doesn't provide any ST value. Because of that, I don't think he makes the cut despite having pretty good running ability. Finch is the ultimate wild card. I was all in on the DeAnthony Thomas bandwagon, but Finch looks like he could be Black Mamba Lite. He can run, catch and return kicks with flashes of electrifying ability in each area. It's a little like Woodhead II, but with better long speed...but with his size, ball security and durability will always be question marks. I have a feeling he makes the team though, since they've had trouble generating 20+ yard plays over the past handful of seasons. Finch can change field position on any given touch, and I just get the sense that Belichick likes the kid. Perhaps he goes the practice squad route, but it's hard not to pull for the kid. He's just fun to watch.

Woodhead ran a 4.38 forty. Finch ran a 4.50 forty. Woodhead is the elite athlete.

 

[dcmissle]

Relevant to the discussion, I remembered reading an article a long time ago about Belichick's thoughts on fumbles.. link:
 
  http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/23/sports/football/23titans.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
 

There is a not insubstantial "random occurrence" crowd. That BB thinks this is blasphemy is funny. Massive cognitive dissonance in the house.

edit. There is a third school too. Mike Martz was notoriously indifferent to interceptions. He also no longer coaches in the League.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Doug Kyed ‏@DougKyedNESN 37s
Stevan Ridley got the first handoff among Patriots running backs in 11-on-11s, despite his fumble on Friday night.
 

Nah. Hes getting cut.

 

[Super Nomario]

Relevant to the discussion, I remembered reading an article a long time ago about Belichick's thoughts on fumbles.. link:
 
  http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/23/sports/football/23titans.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
 

"Fumbles are a random occurence" and "good teams don't fumble less than bad teams" are two different thoughts. We'd think good teams run more offensive plays, so they might fumble the same amount but have a better fumble rate. I don't think fumbles are random for offenses - some players do fumble more than others - but I do think fumble recoveries are largely random. I also think causing fumbles on defense is by-and-large random; ~20% of sacks result in fumbles, but (with the exception of Peanut Tillman) there doesn't appear to be a defensive ability to cause fumbles. I remember a couple years ago Brandon Spikes was really laying the wood and had caused 4 fumbles halfway through the year (and the Pats had a ridiculous turnover differential). But other than stretch, he has never forced an NFL fumble.
 

There is a not insubstantial "random occurrence" crowd. That BB thinks this is blasphemy is funny. Massive cognitive dissonance in the house.

edit. There is a third school too. Mike Martz was notoriously indifferent to interceptions. He also no longer coaches in the League.

Interceptions are also pretty random, though I believe we have been lucky enough to witness one of the few historic exceptions. There's also some statistical noise that's tough to wade through - losing teams throw more picks, but is that because their QBs are more INT-prone or because they have to pass in situations where they're losing and have to throw (we saw this last year even with Brady, as 4 of his 11 picks were late in the 4th in catch-up situations).
 
It is important to point out: that fumbles and interceptions follow something of a statistically random pattern does not mean coaches should not coach fumbles, avoiding fumbles, etc. It may just be that there's little variation in skill and coaching and if a team stopped coaching it that they would be negative outliers, something that would obviously be really bad.

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

"Earnest Byner does not fumble." ~ Dan Dierdorf

 

[tims4wins]

On mobile but I think Denver had the 3rd most fumbles last year and Seattle 7th most. They were pretty good.

On the flip side, the 4 teams with the least fumbles made the playoffs last year - NE, NO, Indy, SD.

Talking total fumbles, not fumbles lost.

So yeah, it does seem somewhat random.

 

[Stitch01]

Finch walked off after practice with no right shoe and a bit of a limp according to Reiss.

 

[Stitch01]

Not sure if the Ridley discussion is getting moved over there, but...
 
I was struck by part of Reiss' answer regarding Ridley in today's mailbag.  I guess that we could parsed that from Reiss not having Ridley on the 53 man roster, but I do wonder if someone affiliated with the team is whispering something to him.
 
 
Q. Mike, I would hate to see Stevan Ridley cut or traded. I know there is a premium to holding onto the ball, but at the same time, he's a top running back in the entire league and I really feel that he is held to a different standard than others. His turnover ratio is not crazy bad and he brings a lot to the table, never gets in trouble and never says the wrong thing. That needs to be said. -- Ken (Long Island, N.Y.)
A. Ken, I think Ridley is a good running back and has value that belongs on a 53-man roster in the NFL. At the same time, I would share my opinion that the Patriots have good depth at the position and also my sense that perhaps the public perception of Ridley is not necessarily completely aligned with the internal perception in New England. My opinion is that it's not just one thing (e.g. fumbles) that contributes to that; it's the whole mosaic that comes with every player and what teams value in players at the position. Let's see how it turns out; there are always a lot of moving parts at this time of year.

 

[soxfan121]

Mike Reiss, master of the HOTSPORTZTAKE.
 
Nothing to see here, move along. 

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

[Note: Moved Tim Write talk to TE thread.]

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Mike Reiss, master of the HOTSPORTZTAKE.
 
Nothing to see here, move along. 

I know your point, but unfortunately Reiss' work has slipped dramatically over the last 2-3 seasons. Hes more about quantity and clicks over real content nowadays.

Look no further then Felger and Mazz backing Reiss on his brilliant take.

 

[TheoShmeo]

When I mentioned James White in the bubble thread, most posters seemed to think he would make the team. 
 
After watching all of his carries during the pre-season, I hope I'm just missing what he brings.  Perhaps he'll be used more as a receiver but as a running back, he appears to lack speed, elusiveness and power.  Finch and Gray seem more likely to contribute in my view, though I'm more enamored with Finch given his Sproles like potential.  I get that they used a pick on White but since when has Belichick worried about perceptions or not assembling the best roster regardless of pedigree?

 

[Super Nomario]

When I mentioned James White in the bubble thread, most posters seemed to think he would make the team. 
 
After watching all of his carries during the pre-season, I hope I'm just missing what he brings.  Perhaps he'll be used more as a receiver but as a running back, he appears to lack speed, elusiveness and power.  Finch and Gray seem more likely to contribute in my view, though I'm more enamored with Finch given his Sproles like potential.  I get that they used a pick on White but since when has Belichick worried about perceptions or not assembling the best roster regardless of pedigree?

Belichick doesn't care about perceptions, but he also doesn't often make rash decisions. Giving up on White after a handful of lackluster preseason carries - especially when the running game as a whole has been weak outside of the second half against Philly - would be a rash decision. White has reportedly done well in practice, and obviously he has a body of work that led the Pats to take him where they did. They won't cut him, and it would be pretty stupid if they did.
 
I think White suffers from the perception that he's a Ridley replacement, and he's not. Belichick explicitly compared his size, build, and pass-catching ability to Vereen. He was brought in to be depth in that role (sorely needed, as the offense suffered when Vereen was out last year) and he's still the best option for that.

 

[TheoShmeo]

Belichick doesn't care about perceptions, but he also doesn't often make rash decisions. Giving up on White after a handful of lackluster preseason carries - especially when the running game as a whole has been weak outside of the second half against Philly - would be a rash decision. White has reportedly done well in practice, and obviously he has a body of work that led the Pats to take him where they did. They won't cut him, and it would be pretty stupid if they did.
 
I think White suffers from the perception that he's a Ridley replacement, and he's not. Belichick explicitly compared his size, build, and pass-catching ability to Vereen. He was brought in to be depth in that role (sorely needed, as the offense suffered when Vereen was out last year) and he's still the best option for that.

I hear what you're saying.  As depth for Vereen, he does make sense, and they obviously missed Danny Woodhead last year, who could have filled that role (and more).
 
I don't recall where, but I read that White might be a bit undersized for a more traditional RB role when he was drafted, and what we've seen during the pre-season fits with that.  But yeah, they do need some depth behind Vereen.  Last, just playing devil's advocate, why couldn't Finch play that role and, at the same time, add a dimension that they don't currently have?

 

[Toe Nash]

I know your point, but unfortunately Reiss' work has slipped dramatically over the last 2-3 seasons. Hes more about quantity and clicks over real content nowadays.

Look no further then Felger and Mazz backing Reiss on his brilliant take.

What? I completely disagree with this. Reiss has always had some odd opinions from time to time but overall I have noticed no difference in his work. He even railed against the type of thing you're talking about. 
 
If there were more beat writers like Reiss we would barely need the media forum. Him having a disagreement with the mighty KFP over Ridley doesn't change this one bit.
 
Edit: even in this point, he notes that it's his opinion and the sense he's getting from being around the team, buries it in a chat, and notes "let's see how it turns out." If he was trolling for clicks he would have wrote some sensationalist headline or gone on the radio jabbering about it.

 

[bakahump]

Gray is the bets runner of this group.  If we want a Ridley replacement.....it should be Gray.  Worse case PS him and bring him in next year as we say so long to Ridley.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Gray is the bets runner of this group.  If we want a Ridley replacement.....it should be Gray.  Worse case PS him and bring him in next year as we say so long to Ridley.

 
Gray is really a Bolden replacement, not White. One thing is clear -- Ridley is so far ahead of the group that I can't imagine getting into next season with White/Finch/Gray/Vereen (maybe). 
 
Then again, this year is this year and next year is next year.

 

[bakahump]

Oh totally agree.  I think Ridley is an "7-8" on the 1-10 scale...depending on fumbles. So an above average Back that can often get you @100 yards on 20-25 carries.
 
The rest of the JAGs are somewhere around 4s.  I just think that Gray is closer to or perhaps even a "5" if the Ridley "only running role" is considered.
 
White is by reputation the best Vereen BU in regards to receiving.  But seems to be only about half the runner Vereen is.
 
Losing Vereen would be BAD!  As I dont think White would be close to a replacement.
Losing Ridley would stink. But I think Gray could take over his "obvious running play" duties.  And I think he could be better at it then Bolden.
 
Hell Bolden might be a better "Vereen backup" then White even if a different shape (then Vereen and White), and not as shiny and new as the rookie.

 

[wutang112878]

Am I the only one that thinks Gray is destined for the practice squad?  Just seems like the easiest guy to get there.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

If there were more beat writers like Reiss we would barely need the media forum. Him having a disagreement with the mighty KFP over Ridley doesn't change this one bit.

 
Despite what the mighty Toe Nash thinks, I'm of the opinion that Reiss has slipped. Is that OK?
 
I have always been a huge supporter of Reiss. He was awesome when he was first coming up and he was awesome when he moved to the Boston Globe. His blog was always a good source of information.
 
I also think that he remains a very good beat writer. Does that make you feel better?
 
It doesn't change my feeling that, since moving his blog to ESPN, he's fallen into the trap that a lot of his self-made predecessors did when they moved to ESPN. Maybe I was a little too harsh in my criticism, but I certainly feel his work has slipped over the last few years.

 

[soxfan121]

It doesn't change my feeling that, since moving his blog to ESPN, he's fallen into the trap that a lot of his self-made predecessors did when they moved to ESPN. Maybe I was a little too harsh in my criticism, but I certainly feel his work has slipped over the last few years.

 
You need to pay more attention to bylines. 
 
The content of the ESPN blog has certainly changed (for the worse) over the last few years, as AP stories, links to ESPN "content" and other writers have been added to the mix. 
 
But the piece TN linked in his post is why I respect the hell out of Mike Reiss. He called out his own employer for watering-down the content. He complained about the "clicks-at-all-costs" edict laid down by his bosses. 
 
Guy has some balls to take on ESPN, even in a polite, respectful manner. 
 
As to whether his work has "slipped"...that's a matter of opinion. What isn't a matter of opinion is that Reiss does not sensationalize. As TN points out, that bit is halfway into a mailbag. It's not a headline, it's not a feature...it's a personal opinion buried in a mailbag that gets zero marketing push. 
 
I think Reiss has better sources in Foxboro than anyone, mostly because he asks good questions and reports what he knows. Discussions about Ridley's future have been had (contract is up after the year, it would be far more surprising that they haven't thought about next year yet) and while the prediction may not come true, it isn't based in "sensational journalism". 
 
And it isn't a "fanboy bullshit" topic, either. Its a legit question, because of Ridley's limitations (19 catches in 3 years, fumbles, pass protection issues). 

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

 
You need to pay more attention to bylines. 
 
The content of the ESPN blog has certainly changed (for the worse) over the last few years, as AP stories, links to ESPN "content" and other writers have been added to the mix. 
 
But the piece TN linked in his post is why I respect the hell out of Mike Reiss. He called out his own employer for watering-down the content. He complained about the "clicks-at-all-costs" edict laid down by his bosses. 
 
Guy has some balls to take on ESPN, even in a polite, respectful manner. 
 
As to whether his work has "slipped"...that's a matter of opinion. What isn't a matter of opinion is that Reiss does not sensationalize. As TN points out, that bit is halfway into a mailbag. It's not a headline, it's not a feature...it's a personal opinion buried in a mailbag that gets zero marketing push. 
 
I think Reiss has better sources in Foxboro than anyone, mostly because he asks good questions and reports what he knows. Discussions about Ridley's future have been had (contract is up after the year, it would be far more surprising that they haven't thought about next year yet) and while the prediction may not come true, it isn't based in "sensational journalism". 
 
And it isn't a "fanboy bullshit" topic, either. Its a legit question, because of Ridley's limitations (19 catches in 3 years, fumbles, pass protection issues). 

 
Shutup, fanboy.

 

[soxfan121]

What a perfectly cromulent response.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

What a perfectly cromulent response.

 
Well then, I guess it's true what they say.
 
A noble spirit embiggens the smallest man.

 

[Super Nomario]

I hear what you're saying.  As depth for Vereen, he does make sense, and they obviously missed Danny Woodhead last year, who could have filled that role (and more).

I can't find the quote now, but Belichick drew a distinction between the kind of routes Woodhead ran (more safety-valve kind of stuff) and the more advanced route-running tree that White, Vereen, and Kevin Faulk have/had.
 

I don't recall where, but I read that White might be a bit undersized for a more traditional RB role when he was drafted, and what we've seen during the pre-season fits with that.  But yeah, they do need some depth behind Vereen.  Last, just playing devil's advocate, why couldn't Finch play that role and, at the same time, add a dimension that they don't currently have?

What dimension is that? The Finch love reminds me of the Jeff Demps thing. I had to look up Demps' name because I'd already forgotten it. But I think if they think both White and Finch can play that Vereen role, they should probably keep both - after all, Vereen is a FA after the year (as are Ridley and Bolden) so even if PT would be limited in 2014 it's good roster management for the future. Also, it's important to temper expectations of these rookie backs generally - Vereen had all of 15 carries his rookie season (and no catches). Maroney and J.R. Redmond are the only Pats rookie rushers under BB with 100 carries or 20 catches.
 

Hell Bolden might be a better "Vereen backup" then White even if a different shape (then Vereen and White), and not as shiny and new as the rookie.

We saw Bolden as a Vereen backup last year, and it wasn't very good.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

 
Despite what the mighty Toe Nash thinks, I'm of the opinion that Reiss has slipped. Is that OK?
 
I have always been a huge supporter of Reiss. He was awesome when he was first coming up and he was awesome when he moved to the Boston Globe. His blog was always a good source of information.
 
I also think that he remains a very good beat writer. Does that make you feel better?
 
It doesn't change my feeling that, since moving his blog to ESPN, he's fallen into the trap that a lot of his self-made predecessors did when they moved to ESPN. Maybe I was a little too harsh in my criticism, but I certainly feel his work has slipped over the last few years.

 
I am curious for specifics on what you think he does differently or how he has slipped; I do not observe that and have been reading him for years.  In my view, he remains a very reliable source of information, someone who grinds out useful but boring stuff about snap counts, position groups, etc which I admire in terms of his commitment, a guy who will take an occasional less-popular opinion, someone who has good sources and shares info from them judiciously (such as his ridley comments), and someone who is an interesting but not spectacular analyst.   Personally, I find his analysis (as opposed to his reporting) to be a mix of interesting and not fully baked.  But that's as true today for me as it has ever been; if anything, I think he's improving in that area.
 
Just one person's take, obviously.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

 
I am curious for specifics on what you think he does differently or how he has slipped; I do not observe that and have been reading him for years.  In my view, he remains a very reliable source of information, someone who grinds out useful but boring stuff about snap counts, position groups, etc which I admire in terms of his commitment, a guy who will take an occasional less-popular opinion, someone who has good sources and shares info from them judiciously (such as his ridley comments), and someone who is an interesting but not spectacular analyst.   Personally, I find his analysis (as opposed to his reporting) to be a mix of interesting and not fully baked.  But that's as true today for me as it has ever been; if anything, I think he's improving in that area.
 
Just one person's take, obviously.

 
I'm swamped with a few things, but give me some time to organize my thoughts on this and get back to you.

 

[Toe Nash]

Reiss picked Ridley to make the team today, and said, "Played a hunch at this spot last week with Ridley and looks like that was off the mark."
 
Go for those clicks, Mike!
 
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4766808/new-england-patriots-projected-roster-7

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Reiss picked Ridley to make the team today, and said, "Played a hunch at this spot last week with Ridley and looks like that was off the mark."
 
Go for those clicks, Mike!
 
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4766808/new-england-patriots-projected-roster-7

 
He already did.

 

[TheoShmeo]

What dimension is that? The Finch love reminds me of the Jeff Demps thing. I had to look up Demps' name because I'd already forgotten it. But I think if they think both White and Finch can play that Vereen role, they should probably keep both - after all, Vereen is a FA after the year (as are Ridley and Bolden) so even if PT would be limited in 2014 it's good roster management for the future. Also, it's important to temper expectations of these rookie backs generally - Vereen had all of 15 carries his rookie season (and no catches). Maroney and J.R. Redmond are the only Pats rookie rushers under BB with 100 carries or 20 catches.

First, I don't think Demps is a fair comparison.  Demps was a two sport athlete who didn't seem to be football obsessed.  I don't remotely pretend to know what underlies Finch's psyche, but he's not balancing between two sports worlds.
 
Second, they are not the fastest offense.  I don't know where they got this but on the Barnwell Grantland podcast they said that the Pats are one of the slowest offenses in the league.  Finch's 4.5 time in the 40 isn't eye popping, but having a relatively small, shifty, quick RB type is not something they would have without him.  Sproles is obviously a very high bar, but Finch does look something like Sproles when he gets past the line and into the open field.  He also might be able to play a role in the kick returning game.
 
Finch may not be the answer.  But I do think he brings a skill set that they would not otherwise have.  Maybe the comp is more Woodhead than Sproles, but Woodhead was both unique and valuable ,and I could see Finch doing some similar things based on the highlights from college and what we've seen in pre-season. 

 

[bakahump]

 
.
We saw Bolden as a Vereen backup last year, and it wasn't very good.

 

Agreed......White does not to my eyes seem even ready/able to hurdle that low bar....

 

[Super Nomario]

First, I don't think Demps is a fair comparison.  Demps was a two sport athlete who didn't seem to be football obsessed.  I don't remotely pretend to know what underlies Finch's psyche, but he's not balancing between two sports worlds.

That's fair.
 

Second, they are not the fastest offense.  I don't know where they got this but on the Barnwell Grantland podcast they said that the Pats are one of the slowest offenses in the league.  Finch's 4.5 time in the 40 isn't eye popping, but having a relatively small, shifty, quick RB type is not something they would have without him.  Sproles is obviously a very high bar, but Finch does look something like Sproles when he gets past the line and into the open field.  He also might be able to play a role in the kick returning game.

This is where I see the comparison between the Demps and Finch - not so much the players themselves, but the way people are excited because they're fast. Straight-line speed is probably the most overrated attribute (as the Barnwell article notes, as the crappy Titans finished as the #1 fastest and the Saints, Patriots, and Broncos were in the top 5 slowest). And why doesn't Vereen bring that speed element, anyway?
 
I agree he might make the team as a KR, especially since Boyce seems to suck. I'm not anti-Finch, I just think people are a little crazy about him based on some decent performances against third-stringers in the preseason. We seem to do this every year.

 

[wutang112878]

What dimension is that? The Finch love reminds me of the Jeff Demps thing. I had to look up Demps' name because I'd already forgotten it. But I think if they think both White and Finch can play that Vereen role, they should probably keep both - after all, Vereen is a FA after the year (as are Ridley and Bolden) so even if PT would be limited in 2014 it's good roster management for the future. Also, it's important to temper expectations of these rookie backs generally - Vereen had all of 15 carries his rookie season (and no catches). Maroney and J.R. Redmond are the only Pats rookie rushers under BB with 100 carries or 20 catches.

 
I have a tough time finding space for Finch on the roster because of STs.  I'll assume that Ridley and Vereen are locks, it seems as though Develin is almost a lock as well because they seem to have a use for him on 1st-3rd down and while I cant confirm this but based on his body type I think he has ST value as well.  Now we 3 RB like spots used up and for the 3rd true RB I would imagine you want a guy who can really run the ball and isnt just a change of pace back.  So pick between Bolden or White, and I'd lean towards White even though Bolden probably has more ST value. 
 
For that last spot now we seem to be debating between Bolden, Finch and maybe Gray.  Finch certainly has more value as a KR than anyone else and maybe a PR as well although I think that responsibility ultimately falls to Edelman during the season.  At that point, I just think the extra depth Bolden gives you as a rusher and the value he has by in STs just outweighs Finch.  Beyond Woodhead and Faulk, I'm also having a tough time remembering a situation where Bill kept a 4th RB where that 4th RB wasnt really dynamic in some way as a RB.  Woodhead didnt have much ST value but he was really valuable on 1st-3rd down.  I dont see Finch having that 1st-3rd down value.

 

[TheoShmeo]

That's fair.
 
This is where I see the comparison between the Demps and Finch - not so much the players themselves, but the way people are excited because they're fast. Straight-line speed is probably the most overrated attribute (as the Barnwell article notes, as the crappy Titans finished as the #1 fastest and the Saints, Patriots, and Broncos were in the top 5 slowest). And why doesn't Vereen bring that speed element, anyway?
 
I agree he might make the team as a KR, especially since Boyce seems to suck. I'm not anti-Finch, I just think people are a little crazy about him based on some decent performances against third-stringers in the preseason. We seem to do this every year.

For me, the excitement is only partially based on his pre-season performance.  Few college highlight reels, at least those for relatively unknown players, are as gripping as Finch's and the POSSIBLITY of adding a Sproles or even Woodhead type smaller, shiftier back to the mix is where I arguably overreact.  If anything, the exhibition game carries simply corroborated the biases that were formed with you tube and Sproles day dreams.

 

[Tony C]

That's fair.
 
This is where I see the comparison between the Demps and Finch - not so much the players themselves, but the way people are excited because they're fast. Straight-line speed is probably the most overrated attribute (as the Barnwell article notes, as the crappy Titans finished as the #1 fastest and the Saints, Patriots, and Broncos were in the top 5 slowest). And why doesn't Vereen bring that speed element, anyway?
 
I agree he might make the team as a KR, especially since Boyce seems to suck. I'm not anti-Finch, I just think people are a little crazy about him based on some decent performances against third-stringers in the preseason. We seem to do this every year.

 
2 points: actually Finch's straight line speed is good not great -- 4.45 40. He's quick and has great lateral movement more than he is fast, which you're right is precisely what one wants.
 
As for people going crazy for him...absolutely! It's Binky-time....but still think he fills a niche on the roster that no one else can.

 

[Pxer]

Any chance the recently cut Green-Ellis is an option over Bolden?

 

[Super Nomario]

 
2 points: actually Finch's straight line speed is good not great -- 4.45 40. He's quick and has great lateral movement more than he is fast, which you're right is precisely what one wants.
 
As for people going crazy for him...absolutely! It's Binky-time....but still think he fills a niche on the roster that no one else can.

What exactly does Finch do that Vereen or White can't do?
 
 

Any chance the recently cut Green-Ellis is an option over Bolden?

I doubt it; BJGE doesn't play specials, and we're talking about a 4th RB at that point.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

What exactly does Finch do that Vereen or White can't do?
 
 
I doubt it; BJGE doesn't play specials, and we're talking about a 4th RB at that point.

 
And while Bolden isn't a great receiver he's significantly more able to fill that role if necessary than Law Firm, who's really a 2 down back.  Roster-wise, you get no protection for Vereen from BJGE, in addition to no special teams value.  If you want Law Firm, it's to replace Ridley (and he's not close to Ridley as a runner, even figuring in the fumbling, imo)

 

[Reverend]

I think it's hard to judge RBs--and many other positions on offense for that matter--because there is the oft-speculated possibility that the coaching staff is putting them into specific, difficult situations to see how they respond, which is very different than what they'd do in a regular season game.
 
From much of what I've read, I think they envision White as part of adding wrinkles to the offense. It's worth noting, for example, that White was on the field for Vereen's 40 yard short pass reception.
 

When the Patriots put two versatile running backs in the game at the same time, how will defenses match them? That’s something to consider after watching Shane Vereen catch a short pass from Brady and race 40 yards up the right sideline for a touchdown in the second quarter. Vereen and running back James White were on the field at the same time on the play, as the Patriots used that “pony” grouping six times in the opening half.

 
Belichick is at his best when he has personnel that can drive the opposition batshit crazy trying to figure out what they're doing. It's why so many people have high hopes for Wright. Belichick may see White as another one of those pieces.

 

[MainerInExile]

What exactly does Finch do that Vereen or White can't do?
 
 
I doubt it; BJGE doesn't play specials, and we're talking about a 4th RB at that point.

 
Lawfirm did indeed play special teams when he started out.  It may be that he wouldn't anymore (post big-money contract), but he certainly could play special teams.  That's how he made the team the first time.

 

[dbn]

Serious question: is Ridley fumble prone? Not in a "he lost a fumble in an important spot and BB got mad at him" way, but in a "demonstrable statistically-significant" way.
 
Either way, BB's perception is what matters when it comes to roster spots and who gets the carries, but for reality, I'm interested.

 

[Reverend]

Serious question: is Ridley fumble prone? Not in a "he lost a fumble in an important spot and BB got mad at him" way, but in a "demonstrable statistically-significant" way.
 
Either way, BB's perception is what matters when it comes to roster spots and who gets the carries, but for reality, I'm interested.

 
I don't think anyone's really given it much thought.
 
Especially not on page 5 of the 53 man roster thread.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

It's why so many people have high hopes for Wright. Belichick may see White as another one of those pieces.

 
I think that's why so many of us are excited for BB to unveil the White is Wright Offense. Or, wait - we'll work on the branding.

 

[dbn]

 
I don't think anyone's really given it much thought.
 
Especially not on page 5 of the 53 man roster thread.

 
Ah, thanks.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

What exactly does Finch do that Vereen or White can't do?

I don't think Vereen is in the equation there. White is supposed to be a backup for Vereen, and Finch would likely fill the same role. Finch is a better returner than White and through the preseason has looked like the more elusive runner. I wish we could have seen the practice field White because what we saw of him, was completely unimpressive. Finch was shifty and he looked like he had the ability to make some big plays. Of course its preseason and the regular season could yield different results but so far Finch looks like the better player.

 

[Reverend]

 
I think that's why so many of us are excited for BB to unveil the White is Wright Offense. Or, wait - we'll work on the branding.

 
2TEs, White and Vereen in the backfield, Dobson split wide and Wright goes into motion towards one of the slots?
 
Some smaller, lighter DB or some slow LB is going to have a very bad day.

 

[dbn]

 
Ah, thanks.

 
Last year, the fumble rate for RB with 120+ attempts (chosen to eliminate QBs) was 1.15 +/- 0.12% Stephan Ridley's career fumble rate is 1.62 +/- 0.54%. So Ridley fumbles 0.47 +/- 0.55% more than average.
 
So statistically*, he is completely consistent with fumbling at an average rate for RBs with 120+ carries. 
 
edit: by "fumble rate" I mean fumbles divided by rushing attempts, in case that isn't clear.
 
* I could have used more data for the field to shrink the error bar on the average rate, but I'm not going to go through the trouble.

 

[Tony C]

What exactly does Finch do that Vereen or White can't do?
 
 
I doubt it; BJGE doesn't play specials, and we're talking about a 4th RB at that point.

 
 

I don't think Vereen is in the equation there. White is supposed to be a backup for Vereen, and Finch would likely fill the same role. Finch is a better returner than White and through the preseason has looked like the more elusive runner. I wish we could have seen the practice field White because what we saw of him, was completely unimpressive. Finch was shifty and he looked like he had the ability to make some big plays. Of course its preseason and the regular season could yield different results but so far Finch looks like the better player.

 
Pretty much what Eck said -- not sure how Vereen got in the conversation, the comparison would be to guys at the bottom of the RB pecking order -- Bolden or, yes, White.
 
I put this out with the total caveat that it's spec based on a snippet of the info BB and staff have, I don't pretend to know more than them and will have no axe to grind with whatever they decide. That said, based on what we've seen the only thing White has going for him is that he's a 4th rounder and made exactly 1 good play -- a nice catch -- over 4 games with extensive usage. If we're seeing his slot as Vereen's back-up, Finch showed far, far more. The comparison to Bolden isn't as direct, but just that Bolden is a JAG who is solid when healthy, but Finch brings more to the table in re kick returning, 2 back sets with Vereen, or subbing in for Vereen. Since Bolden is JAG who is also in his last year, I could see an argument for displacing him with Finch.
 
Going back to White, I just googled a draft projection for him and it has him as a 7th rounder or a priority free agent. Obviously the Pats thought more highly of him, but I think we all love that the Pats don't mind cutting bait on guys if they find they overvalued them. I'm not predicting that, just saying that it would accord with the little that we have seen. 

 

[lambeau]

Reading tea leaves at this point, but is there an explanation for Bolden being a healthy scratch in 3 out of 4 preseason games?  Preseason total: 3 carries against Eagles. Did not travel to New York. Seems a little ominous.

 

[Super Nomario]

Pretty much what Eck said -- not sure how Vereen got in the conversation, the comparison would be to guys at the bottom of the RB pecking order -- Bolden or, yes, White.

Vereen got into the discussion because you said re: Finch: "still think he fills a niche on the roster that no one else can." Vereen is on the roster, so that's where I take exception to your statement. I also don't really see what Finch brings that White doesn't, which is more to the point.
 

I put this out with the total caveat that it's spec based on a snippet of the info BB and staff have, I don't pretend to know more than them and will have no axe to grind with whatever they decide. That said, based on what we've seen the only thing White has going for him is that he's a 4th rounder and made exactly 1 good play -- a nice catch -- over 4 games with extensive usage. If we're seeing his slot as Vereen's back-up, Finch showed far, far more.

White hasn't had an impressive preseason, but he's gotten a lot more reps with the ones, which suggests he's showing more in practice - consistent with what's been reported. Being drafted in the fourth round isn't as important as why he was drafted in the fourth round - White had a far, far more impressive college career, has better measurables (similar or better speed / agility numbers at a bigger size), he's considered a plus intangibles guy (whereas Finch found himself in the doghouse at times at Oklahoma apparently due to effort issues), and he's considered a good blocker and an excellent receiver. The idea that the body of work is in Finch's favor and White is hanging on by virtue of his draft status is laughable to me - the body of work is overwhelmingly in White's favor. Finch has made the most of his preseason opportunities, which is great and encouraging and bodes well for his chance to make the team as a fourth or fifth RB or practice squadder. It shouldn't threaten White's status, and I seriously doubt it will.
 

The comparison to Bolden isn't as direct, but just that Bolden is a JAG who is solid when healthy, but Finch brings more to the table in re kick returning, 2 back sets with Vereen, or subbing in for Vereen. Since Bolden is JAG who is also in his last year, I could see an argument for displacing him with Finch.

This is more plausible to me, but a) Bolden is the only "big" backup to Ridley, and b) Bolden plays on all four kicking game units. I think the smart money is on Bolden making it, but I wouldn't rule out the Pats carrying five RBs (especially if they think they can sneak Finch onto the PS later on). Bolden is PS-eligible under the new rules, FWIW.
 

Reading tea leaves at this point, but is there an explanation for Bolden being a healthy scratch in 3 out of 4 preseason games?  Preseason total: 3 carries against Eagles. Did not travel to New York. Seems a little ominous.

He's been banged up.