SBLII: Patriots vs. Eagles, the Build-Up

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RG33

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SoSH Member
Nov 28, 2005
7,272
CA
Has anyone on here attended a game before? I haven't, and I'm thinking of going. I don't want to try and time the market to much, but the cost of the cheapest ticket on Stubhub has gone from ~$3800 on Tuesday to $2700 right now. I doubt they'll go too much lower, but does anyone have any experience with the SB Ticket market? Should I just buy now, or do ticket prices tend to get lower the closer to the game we get. Wouldn't hate getting in at a lower price point...
You won’t get any “bargains” even waiting until gametime. You might save a few hundred bucks here or there, but the seats will likely be really shitty. It is worth it to pay up a little and get decent seats in my opinion — just think about it as a once-in-a-lifetime deal that you are going to pay off monthly over the next 6 months. ;-)
 

steveluck7

Member
SoSH Member
May 10, 2007
4,003
Burrillville, RI
Has anyone on here attended a game before? I haven't, and I'm thinking of going. I don't want to try and time the market to much, but the cost of the cheapest ticket on Stubhub has gone from ~$3800 on Tuesday to $2700 right now. I doubt they'll go too much lower, but does anyone have any experience with the SB Ticket market? Should I just buy now, or do ticket prices tend to get lower the closer to the game we get. Wouldn't hate getting in at a lower price point...
There was an guy on the radio this week (98.5) talking all about this. He recommended buying bext Tuesday or Wednesday. He said that’s because sometimes the spread between “get in price” and the next highest tier gets too far so brokers will grab all of the “cheapest” ones left and the market will take off again.
He also suggested looking at that spread between cheapest and the next tier and decide if the upgrade in ability to see if worth it for you. His last recommendation was to pay the premium and buy from stubhub or Ticketmaster. In the event of you buying a fake ticket, those sites will eat the loss and get you a real ticket.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
51,634
My father in law loves telling the story about how he and his brother won the season ticket holder lottery one year (for the Giants) and almost immediately sold them in the parking lot after picking them up to a very large gentleman who paid in cash. I think it was the Ravens disaster game,so pre-stubhub and ultimately a solid move.

I have to indulge such stories for the sake of our inheritance, part of which will be a pair of prime tix (yes, to the Giants—at least I can profit off them). He tried to put a subtle hex on the Pats all playoffs long by constantly saying “you know, I just can’t see anyone beating New England.”
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,956
Hingham, MA
Statistically, Willie wasn't a lot different under Parcells, Carroll, or Belichick. He certainly had more signature moments with Belichick, but a lot of of that was probably a function of getting to play in bigger games.
Agreed, but at that point he was seemingly oft-injured and his career seemed to be dwindling down; then he had an incredible run for a few years under BB

Sure, but he was on an upward trajectory before Belichick got there, going from a special teams guy as a rookie under Parcells to a full-time starter in Carroll's last season.
Agreed, but again, he truly blossomed from 2001-2004 under BB. I don't think anyone had him as a Patriots Hall of Famer when BB arrived in 2000.

Fair. Nobody uses the slot WR better than Belichick.
Agreed


I'm skeptical. Belichick didn't change special teams coordinators when he joined NE. I don't know, maybe?
The point isn't that something magical happened under BB, but that AV had 4 seasons in the league before BB arrived and I don't think anyone had him as anything other than a decent kicker. This may all be timing and circumstance, but so many of these guys who weren't thought of as these amazing talents had incredible performances under BB.

He only played one season under Carroll so this just seems normal.
Can't disagree with this, he was always thought of as a solid player.


Carroll is and was a really good defensive coach. The Pats were 7th in points allowed and 8th in yards allowed in 1999; the problem was the offense sucked. His scheme was pretty different than Belichick's or Parcells' so there were definitely guys who fit better in one than another, but overall the defensive units under Carroll performed similar to the units under Belichick's first three seasons (and, for that matter, those in Parcells' last three seasons).
Yes, agreed, those defenses were very, very good, albeit different.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

posts way less than 18% useful shit
SoSH Member
Nov 17, 2010
14,491
You won’t get any “bargains” even waiting until gametime. You might save a few hundred bucks here or there, but the seats will likely be really shitty. It is worth it to pay up a little and get decent seats in my opinion — just think about it as a once-in-a-lifetime deal that you are going to pay off monthly over the next 6 months. ;-)
If you don't sell your tickets by Tuesday, it gets a little harder to sell them off on Stub hub, ticketmaster, etc (Stub hub needs them in hand by Wednesday). I would expect tickets to drop on Tuesday as people grow concerned with having to go through extra steps for later selling tickets.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
9,220
Patriots lost the turnover battle against Seattle and Atlanta in the last two super bowls....and obviously won.

A few narratives out there for the super bowl:
- Pats always play close super bowls
- Pats never get off to a good start
- Pats cannot defend the Run-Pass-Option
- Nick Foles is a legitimate threat
- The Eagles are a real threat to beat the Patriots outright.

Here's the problem with those:
- History dating back to 16 years ago is meaningless. It's not a strategy that they played the Super Bowls close.
- Ditto. I'm sure this will be a focal point for BB during these two weeks.
- The Patriots completely shut down the Jags in the 2nd half. They have two weeks to figure out how to stop it. I'm extremely confident this will not be the problem if they ultimately do lose.
- If he has another 4 standard deviation game, sure. I don't buy it. Let's keep in mind that 1/4 of his yards were on a blown play by the Vikings. I will admit the rest of the game was impressive, but again this is an outlier performance.
- There is a reason why the Eagles were underdogs against the Falcons and Vikings at home. Now all the hype is behind them.

If you actually take the time to look at the post Wentz era Eagles they are unimpressive. Wins against the Giants and Raiders were struggles where they won the turnover advantage. The Falcons win they never scored a TD. The vikings win was a convincing win, but again completely aided by turnovers and a broken coverage by the Vikings that opened the game up and led to some Eagles scoring after it was over.

Just tremendous recency bias and confirmation bias at play. I'd expect the Pats to get out to a lead and stay +10 for most of the game, with some threats from the Eagles that never truly materialize. Don't lose the turnover battle and this should be an easy win. Pats by >10.

If you'll excuse me I need to go hammer the Pats line.
 
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dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
Patriots lost the turnover battle against Seattle and Atlanta in the last two super bowls....and obviously won.

A few narratives out there for the super bowl:
- Pats always play close super bowls
- Pats never get off to a good start
- Pats cannot defend the Run-Pass-Option
- Nick Foles is a legitimate threat
- The Eagles are a real threat to beat the Patriots outright.

Here's the problem with those:
- History dating back to 16 years ago is meaningless. It's not a strategy that they played the Super Bowls close.
- Ditto. I'm sure this will be a focal point for BB during these two weeks.
- The Patriots completely shut down the Jags in the 2nd half. They have two weeks to figure out how to stop it. I'm extremely confident this will not be the problem if they ultimately do lose.
- If he has another 4 standard deviation game, sure. I don't buy it. Let's keep in mind that 1/4 of his yards were on a blown play by the Vikings. I will admit the rest of the game was impressive, but again this is an outlier performance.
- There is a reason why the Eagles were underdogs against the Falcons and Vikings at home. Now all the hype is behind them.

If you actually take the time to look at the post Wentz era Eagles they are unimpressive. Wins against the Giants and Raiders were struggles where they won the turnover advantage. The Falcons win they never scored a TD. The vikings win was a convincing win, but again completely aided by turnovers and a broken coverage by the Vikings that opened the game up and led to some Eagles scoring after it was over.

Just tremendous recency bias and confirmation bias at play. I'd expect the Pats to get out to a lead and stay +10 for most of the game, with some threats from the Eagles that never truly materialize. Don't lose the turnover battle and this should be an easy win. Pats by >10.

If you'll excuse me I need to go hammer the Pats line.
I’m going to hold you to it.

People getting borderline outraged over predictions of the Eagles winning, or easily covering, is amusing.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,859
In the BB/TB era, the Pats have not lost a single playoff game where they've won the TO battle. When they LOSE the TO battle they are still 7-6, so it's not like you're guaranteed to beat them even if you in the positive on TO margin. But if you lose the TO battle, you're dead meat.
 

the moops

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Jan 19, 2016
4,789
Saint Paul, MN
Don't really post in here about Patriots, more of a Celtic guy.
Anyway - northern suburb of Boston dude who moved to Twin Cities 10 years ago. Anyone need advice/help/recommendations for a visit out here for Super Bowl, hit me up
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,330
In the BB/TB era, the Pats have not lost a single playoff game where they've won the TO battle. When they LOSE the TO battle they are still 7-6, so it's not like you're guaranteed to beat them even if you in the positive on TO margin. But if you lose the TO battle, you're dead meat.
Fortunately for the Eagles, this Patriots defense absolutely sucks at generating takeaways.
 

tonyandpals

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Mar 18, 2004
7,871
Burlington
If you don't sell your tickets by Tuesday, it gets a little harder to sell them off on Stub hub, ticketmaster, etc (Stub hub needs them in hand by Wednesday). I would expect tickets to drop on Tuesday as people grow concerned with having to go through extra steps for later selling tickets.
I think you got mixed up on their confusing wording. You can keep your listings live on StubHub, as long as they have your tickets in hand. If you list on StubHub and sell before the 30th, you need to ship them to StubHub on the 29th as the latest. If you haven't sold your tickets yet, the listing will come down. That's an important note for the market here. Anything people are holding (not in StubHubs office) that doesn't sell will come of the board. Demand will be down (temporarily) and prices will go up. This will happen on the 30th and 31st. Then people will get their tickets shipped to StubHub's LMS (last minute services). They'll arrive on 1/31 or 2/1 and the listings will reactivate.

So you can sell on StubHub after the 1/30-1/31 cutoff. You just have to get the tickets to them. But if you're buying you want to avoid that window. If you're selling...it may be a good time to pounce on the people who don't know what's happening.
 

normstalls

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 15, 2004
4,504
Been drinking all night and hammered - I know I should know the answer, but what players will play (as a Patriot) in the three most recent SBs. No Google. I'm going with:

Tommy
Ryan Allen
Ghost
Cardona
Slater
Solder
D Lewis
Dola

Who'd I miss??
 

E5 Yaz

polka king
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
90,766
Oregon
Been drinking all night and hammered - I know I should know the answer, but what players will play (as a Patriot) in the three most recent SBs. No Google. I'm going with:

Tommy
Ryan Allen
Ghost
Cardona
Slater
Solder
D Lewis
Dola

Who'd I miss??
Butler
 

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2005
19,615
Portsmouth, NH
Bolden
Chung
McCourty
White

Cardona wasn’t on the XLIX team, the snapper was Danny Aiken. Deon Lewis wasnt either, but James White was.

Without googling, was Develin hurt for one of the games? I remember him breaking his leg I just can’t place which season it was.

Edit: Harmon and Branch too.
 
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tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,956
Hingham, MA
Patriots lost the turnover battle against Seattle and Atlanta in the last two super bowls....and obviously won.

A few narratives out there for the super bowl:
- Pats always play close super bowls
- Pats never get off to a good start
- Pats cannot defend the Run-Pass-Option
- Nick Foles is a legitimate threat
- The Eagles are a real threat to beat the Patriots outright.

Here's the problem with those:
- History dating back to 16 years ago is meaningless. It's not a strategy that they played the Super Bowls close.
- Ditto. I'm sure this will be a focal point for BB during these two weeks.
- The Patriots completely shut down the Jags in the 2nd half. They have two weeks to figure out how to stop it. I'm extremely confident this will not be the problem if they ultimately do lose.
- If he has another 4 standard deviation game, sure. I don't buy it. Let's keep in mind that 1/4 of his yards were on a blown play by the Vikings. I will admit the rest of the game was impressive, but again this is an outlier performance.
- There is a reason why the Eagles were underdogs against the Falcons and Vikings at home. Now all the hype is behind them.

If you actually take the time to look at the post Wentz era Eagles they are unimpressive. Wins against the Giants and Raiders were struggles where they won the turnover advantage. The Falcons win they never scored a TD. The vikings win was a convincing win, but again completely aided by turnovers and a broken coverage by the Vikings that opened the game up and led to some Eagles scoring after it was over.

Just tremendous recency bias and confirmation bias at play. I'd expect the Pats to get out to a lead and stay +10 for most of the game, with some threats from the Eagles that never truly materialize. Don't lose the turnover battle and this should be an easy win. Pats by >10.

If you'll excuse me I need to go hammer the Pats line.
I’m not sure I 100% agree that it is not a strategy that they play the Super Bowls close. I think they do play things a bit close to the vest early in Super Bowls because they are confident they can make adjustments. They want to stay in the game, see what the opponent is doing on each side of the ball, and adapt accordingly. Of course this isn’t all that different from other games; many of the blowouts in this era have actually been more like 2nd half blowouts, or where the Pats start taking over late first half. For instance the Titans game. Or the Steelers AFCCG last year. The primary difference is that the Pats haven’t been able to put away anyone in the Super Bowl. They had a chance against the Rams, Panthers, and Eagles, as well as in 46 in the loss, but didn’t get it done in any of those opportunities. The Eagles game was the closest in that they extended the lead to 10. The Panthers game they extended the lead from 14-10 to 21-10, but then after a Carolina TD Brady got picked in the end zone.

Anyway - obviously they want to score early and win by multiple scores but I think there are some reasons they play close Super Bowls. Collinsworth even said something to that effect early in 49.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

posts way less than 18% useful shit
SoSH Member
Nov 17, 2010
14,491
I think you got mixed up on their confusing wording. You can keep your listings live on StubHub, as long as they have your tickets in hand. If you list on StubHub and sell before the 30th, you need to ship them to StubHub on the 29th as the latest. If you haven't sold your tickets yet, the listing will come down. That's an important note for the market here. Anything people are holding (not in StubHubs office) that doesn't sell will come of the board. Demand will be down (temporarily) and prices will go up. This will happen on the 30th and 31st. Then people will get their tickets shipped to StubHub's LMS (last minute services). They'll arrive on 1/31 or 2/1 and the listings will reactivate.

So you can sell on StubHub after the 1/30-1/31 cutoff. You just have to get the tickets to them. But if you're buying you want to avoid that window. If you're selling...it may be a good time to pounce on the people who don't know what's happening.
What, do you got some tickets to sell or something?
 

Ed Hillel

Wants to be startin somethin
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2007
44,483
Here
Been drinking all night and hammered - I know I should know the answer, but what players will play (as a Patriot) in the three most recent SBs. No Google. I'm going with:

Tommy
Ryan Allen
Ghost
Cardona
Slater
Solder
D Lewis
Dola

Who'd I miss??
Andrews?
Mason
White? (not sure he was active in 2014)
Butler
McCourty
Chung
Harmon
Maybe Branch (if he’s active, probably not)


As previously mentioned, Lewis wasn’t on the 2014 team.

Edit - Forgot Bolden
 

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
34,639
Yep. But even one takeaway by the Pats swings this game in their favor tremendously.
Yes, and the fact that the Pats win a lot of games without depending on getting TOs can be viewed as a NE strength and possibly a Philadelphia weakness.
 
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