Shohei Ohtani's future....

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

It may never be the same. I hope he has a long HOF career. But we are going to look back on these last few years, I think, with wonder that might not get matched again. A guy having HOF performance as a pitcher and hitter.

Feels a little like the Bo Jackson injury. In terms of severity, lots of ball players recover from UCL surgery, so I don’t mean in the sense that this will be as career affecting as Bo’s injury.

Just that this amazing two-tool story won’t ever be the same.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Goodbye 200-300 million?

He is a true professional playing out his time with the Angels, but with all the starts he's left early, he really should have shut it down a week or two ago.

They had Tyler Anderson ready to go, it seems. They knew something was up with him last few weeks. He was probably too proud for his own good but have to imagine it was only a matter of time.

You have to wonder if pitching is no longer in the cards, if he’ll go out and play the field. That’s one thing we’ve never gotten to see.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

He's already in the HOF just for being the most successful two-way player since Babe Ruth. This three-year peak per Baseball Reference:

2021: 4.8 oWAR, 4.1 pitching WAR
2022: 3.5 oWAR, 6.2 pitching WAR
2023: 5.5 oWAR (5 1/2 weeks to go), 3.8 pitching WAR (finalized)

 

[BigSoxFan]

It may never be the same. I hope he has a long HOF career. But we are going to look back on these last few years, I think, with wonder that might not get matched again. A guy having HOF performance as a pitcher and hitter.

Feels a little like the Bo Jackson injury. In terms of severity, lots of ball players recover from UCL surgery, so I don’t mean in the sense that this will be as career affecting as Bo’s injury.

Just that this amazing two-tool story won’t ever be the same.

And the fact that we never got to see him in the postseason with Trout is just downright unfair.

 

[Tokyo Sox]

UCL. Fuck. I am taking this harder than I expected. He is the most exciting player in sports, to me. This is awful.

Absolutely brutal. I don’t want to believe it’s real.

 

[jon abbey]

Oh man that is terrible.

 

[The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa]

On top of everything else, a disasterous set of trade deadline decisions by the Angels.

 

[Remagellan]

Wow that sucks.

Will be very interesting to see how prospective teams want to proceed in FA (and their medical recs). Ohtani may want to decide on a plan before he can sign....

Shohei will still get a mammoth contract of course as a hitter only, though the crazy 700M+ numbers are probably only if he is expected to be close to full time as both a pitcher and a hitter. The timing of this injury could easily cost him a couple hundred million bucks (maybe the Angels are back in the picture now lol).

If he needs surgery and gets it in Oct/Nov he could probably be back to hit for a decent chunk of next season, but pitching in 2024 would be out of the question.

This is just awful.

Carlos Correa still had three teams willing to lavish millions on him at various points despite chancy medicals. (In two cases, at least until they got a closer look at his records.)

How does Ohtani getting a second TJ surgery compare? I understand for sure he wouldn't throw another pitch until 2025 at the earliest, but would he be expected to return as the same pitcher then? (I'm asking, because if so, there are still going to be teams that would open the vault for him. The Mets at the very least.)

Last question for the medical people on the board, would Ohtani's wisest course be to shut it down entirely for the rest of the season, or would his continuing to DH not impact his elbow condition?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

This is just awful.

Carlos Correa still had three teams willing to lavish millions on him at various points despite chancy medicals. (In two cases, at least until they got a closer look at his records.)

How does Ohtani getting a second TJ surgery compare? I understand for sure he wouldn't throw another pitch until 2025 at the earliest, but would he be expected to return as the same pitcher then? (I'm asking, because if so, there are still going to be teams that would open the vault for him. The Mets at the very least.)

Last question for the medical people on the board, would Ohtani's wisest course be to shut it down entirely for the rest of the season, or would his continuing to DH not impact his elbow condition?

Not a medical person, but I imagine that he wouldn't be continuing to DH if there was a significant chance his elbow would be negatively affected by doing so. The only reason to shut down now would be to get the surgery sooner and hasten the recovery process. But whether he has surgery tomorrow or surgery in October, there's no chance he will pitch in a game until spring 2025 anyway, so why not finish the season and chase 50 HR (or 60)? Maybe doing so makes him a few extra million dollars this winter even with the question marks about his elbow.

 

[axx]

Didn't Ohtani miss a good deal of time even DHing after the first TJ? If he gets the surgery soon, he could return sooner hitting for whoever he signs with.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Didn't Ohtani miss a good deal of time even DHing after the first TJ? If he gets the surgery soon, he could return sooner hitting for whoever he signs with.

He missed the first month of 2019, returning on May 7. He had the surgery on September 30, 2018. No reason a similar timetable couldn't be followed again.

Bryce Harper returned extremely quickly from TJS this season (May 2). Due to the Phillies' post-season run, he didn't have his operation until late November. So there's a chance Ohtani could speed up his return by following Harper's plan, and maybe be ready for Opening Day. Probably best not to count on that though.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

On top of everything else, a disasterous set of trade deadline decisions by the Angels.

Imagine if the Dodgers or some playoff contender had given up 2-3 Top 10 prospects for Ohtani at the deadline and had to shut him down in August? A lot of General Managers must feel like they dodged a bullet this morning.

 

[sodenj5]

Really no one wins here. Baseball is so much better with a two-way unicorns like Ohtani. Ohtani is still going to get paid very well, but he just lost a significant chunk of change.

You admire his toughness pushing through his dings this season, but clearly it’s taken a cumulative toll. I think most people expected Ohtani to eventually have to stop pitching at some point in his career as the miles added up.

If he ends up with a second TJ surgery, that day may be sooner than expected, which is obviously going to hurt his value.

He DH’d through the same thing previously, as did Bryce Harper last year. I would expect he continues to play and may be staring down the Bryce Harper path of trying to return as a DH early next year and as a pitcher in 2025.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Imagine if the Dodgers or some playoff contender had given up 2-3 Top 10 prospects for Ohtani at the deadline and had to shut him down in August? A lot of General Managers must feel like they dodged a bullet this morning.

Makes you wonder if the Angels might have suspected there was an issue. He was trending badly in July. Doesn't really explain them being buyers at the deadline, though.

 

[sodenj5]

Makes you wonder if the Angels might have suspected there was an issue. He was trending badly in July. Doesn't really explain them being buyers at the deadline, though.

I think the tricky thing for them is, I believe they are largely hands off with Shohei. Like he kind of does his own thing. Even his teammates don’t fully know his routine and what he does. He just does it, shows up, and is amazing.

I’m sure some blame belongs to the Angels. They were clearly invested in trying to make the playoffs with their final season of Shohei and Trout together. But they’ve also given him the autonomy to do his own thing and he needs to give them the feedback that he isn’t right.

 

[BaseballJones]

The Angels… they’ve had arguably two of the five best players ever to play baseball, and they have even added quality players around them like Rendon (who was coming off three straight awesome seasons in Washington and was smack dab in his prime) and they still just couldn’t get over the hump.

 

[JimD]

Imagine if the Dodgers or some playoff contender had given up 2-3 Top 10 prospects for Ohtani at the deadline and had to shut him down in August? A lot of General Managers must feel like they dodged a bullet this morning.

I wonder if the Angels pulling Shohei off the trading block in late July was due to other teams getting a look at his medicals and offering far less than what everyone thought he'd be worth.

 

[LogansDad]

Well, this is like the worst possible news to wake up to.

 

[canderson]

Echoing everyone’s “this is awful posts. It’s brutal news for anyone who loves baseball.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Feels inevitable that his pitching days would end sooner rather than later, unfortunately.

 

[JM3]

Seems like he should just shut it down for the season & get himself ready for free agency & next season.

Angels have a 0.1% chance of playoffing according to Fangraphs & he doesn't owe the Angels anything more than he's given them.

 

[moondog80]

Makes you wonder if the Angels might have suspected there was an issue. He was trending badly in July. Doesn't really explain them being buyers at the deadline, though.

If they suspected an issue wouldn't they have traded him?

 

[runnels3]

Just that this amazing two-tool story won’t ever be the same.

Oh say it ain't so.

 

[Brianish]

If they suspected an issue wouldn't they have traded him?

I assume the suggestion is that he wouldn't have made it through medicals.

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

This makes me sad.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Feels inevitable that his pitching days would end sooner rather than later, unfortunately.

This has always seemed inevitable at some point, which is why his free agency is going to be so interesting and tricky.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

I assume the suggestion is that he wouldn't have made it through medicals.

They really wouldn't have had anything to lose by trying it though... maybe some bad PR if a trade blew up over it, but they got bad PR for not trying it anyway. There's also less scrutiny over worrisome medicals for a 2-3 month rental.

 

[Rovin Romine]

And this is why you don't back up the truck.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

They really wouldn't have had anything to lose by trying it though... maybe some bad PR if a trade blew up over it, but they got bad PR for not trying it anyway. There's also less scrutiny over worrisome medicals for a 2-3 month rental.

Depends on how bad it was, I guess. The other team would have given up something significant in a trade for the best player in baseball. The PR would have been really bad and could have jeopardized their ability to do future deals. They might have pulled him off the market to do the right thing, which I know is not how we tend to think these days. They may also have thought, in a weird way, that this gives them a better chance of signing him.

 

[JM3]

Depends on how bad it was, I guess. The other team would have given up something significant in a trade for the best player in baseball. The PR would have been really bad and could have jeopardized their ability to do future deals. They might have pulled him off the market to do the right thing, which I know is not how we tend to think these days. They may also have thought, in a weird way, that this gives them a better chance of signing him.

I don't think you buy at the deadline if you're holding onto Ohtani just to do the right thing.

Of course, buying at the deadline with a 100% healthy Ohtani was already crazy.

 

[BigSoxFan]

And this is why you don't back up the truck.

I'd still line up the Judge contract or close to it for the bat alone. But those crazy $500M+ contract offers are likely gone unless Cohen gets stupid.

 

[Remagellan]

Years ago, I got this idea of a "Sunday starter"--teams would build their rotations so every month one of their top starters would be designated their Sunday starter and only pitch on Sundays that month to give extra rest to their arms. I wonder when he recovers if something like that might work for Ohtani. Although from his game logs, it looks like the Angels pretty much had him pitching on five days rest, so whether one more day of rest before each start could have helped protect his arm is still a question.

 

[cheekydave]

Im surprised Im this upset over a player being injured that isnt Rice, TonyC, Sale etc. If the guy was in a movie or novel his level of talent wouldnt have even been considered possible or realistic. What a shame,

 

[Brianish]

They really wouldn't have had anything to lose by trying it though... maybe some bad PR if a trade blew up over it, but they got bad PR for not trying it anyway. There's also less scrutiny over worrisome medicals for a 2-3 month rental.

I don't necessarily know that I *agree* with the assertion; I just think that's what Red(s)HawksFan was referring to.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

Years ago, I got this idea of a "Sunday starter"--teams would build their rotations so every month one of their top starters would be designated their Sunday starter and only pitch on Sundays that month to give extra rest to their arms. I wonder when he recovers if something like that might work for Ohtani. Although from his game logs, it looks like the Angels pretty much had him pitching on five days rest, so whether one more day of rest before each start could have helped protect his arm is still a question.

The White Sox beat you to it.

Ted Lyons

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I don't think you buy at the deadline if you're holding onto Ohtani just to do the right thing.

Of course, buying at the deadline with a 100% healthy Ohtani was already crazy.

Yeah, probably right. But I do wonder if this puts them back in the mix to sign him.

 

[JM3]

Yeah, probably right. But I do wonder if this puts them back in the mix to sign him.

I think this would give him worse feelings about his time in the organization, not better. But who knows?

 

[moondog80]

I assume the suggestion is that he wouldn't have made it through medicals.

Ah...makes sense.

I foresee a much smaller deal than anticipated, but with player opt outs early on.

 

[InsideTheParker]

I, too, am very sad about this, but not totally surprised, since all of the "resting" he's had to do lately put me on alert regarding his pitching. Does anyone know what position he might play on the field? First base?

 

[Ale Xander]

UCL. Fuck. I am taking this harder than I expected. He is the most exciting player in sports, to me. This is awful.

To me, he’s not even the most exciting player on his own team.



That’s clearly Hunter Renfroe
(Kidding, on part 2)

But yes this is awful for him and the sport

 

[nvalvo]

I, too, am very sad about this, but not totally surprised, since all of the "resting" he's had to do lately put me on alert regarding his pitching. Does anyone know what position he might play on the field? First base?

Corner outfield.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I, too, am very sad about this, but not totally surprised, since all of the "resting" he's had to do lately put me on alert regarding his pitching. Does anyone know what position he might play on the field? First base?

He played corner OF early on in his Japanese career when he was like 18/19. Hard to say what he would do if pitching is not in the cards. If they're concerned about the arm, maybe 1B, but that would feel like a waste of his athleticism.

 

[RobertS975]

I have written several times about the role of contract insurance in the larger MLB contracts. As far as pitching is concerned, he is uninsurable at this point in time.
I don't know if 300 million is out of reach as a DH/1B, but those lofty predictions of $500-750 million are toast now.

 

[Marciano490]

The human body is such a weird mix of power and fragility. This sucks. I find myself caring more about greatness in general than my own hometown teams lately, and Ohtani was an all-time phenom.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I have written several times about the role of contract insurance in the larger MLB contracts. As far as pitching is concerned, he is uninsurable at this point in time.
I don't know if 300 million is out of reach as a DH/1B, but those lofty predictions of $500-750 million are toast now.

I think basically every team in MLB would gladly give Ohtani $300M. That's Devers money and Ohtani is a much, much better hitter. My guess is it still gets up to close to $400M in line with the Judge contract. He is the AL MVP right now with an insane 183 OPS+ without even factoring in the pitching. It may take him a little while to round back into form post-surgery (assuming that's the course of action) but I'd have zero concerns with him as a hitter.

 

[curly2]

This sucks royally. Ohtani is amazing and it would be such a shame if he's never the same.

After Ohtani pitched one-hitter in the opener and hit two homers in the nightcap, a guy at work and I were talking. He's a Mets fan and has never seen Ohtani in person and said next year he has to go see him, even if it's at Yankee Stadium, just so he can say he saw the greatest player of his lifetime play. I told him I needed to do the same thing.

I hope I get to see him pitch someday.

 

[JM3]

I think basically every team in MLB would gladly give Ohtani $300M. That's Devers money and Ohtani is a much, much better hitter. My guess is it still gets up to close to $400M in line with the Judge contract. He is the AL MVP right now with an insane 183 OPS+ without even factoring in the pitching. It may take him a little while to round back into form post-surgery (assuming that's the course of action) but I'd have zero concerns with him as a hitter.

Plus marketability stuff. I still think he gets $450m+. We shall see.

 

[Ale Xander]

Don’t you still need your elbow to hit and throw?
what has history shown us with hitters getting TJS? (I don’t know, just asking)
Any loss of production? Any increased risk from RE-injury while throwing to a base?

 

[E5 Yaz]

On the other hand, AngeLOLs

 

[RobertS975]

TJ surgery has become so routine, even 2nd attempts at it. I have no clue about what percentage of these athletes don't come back to their previous form.

As for references to the Carlos Correa contracts offered by the Giants and then the Mets, I believe that the excuse of the physical is just code for the fact that the teams were unable to get the contracts insured. Teams might not care about physical risks if they can get those risks insured.