Someone sell me on Teoscar Hernandez > than Duvall or Turner.
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There’s plenty of discussion in the other Teoscar thread that provides plenty of good insight to why some feel he is…. And others feel he isn’t. Check it out.
Only one of these players can play passable defense and stay on the field for 150 games.
Only one of these of these players is younger than 35 years old.
Only one of these players has posted a 130 wRC+ in 3 of the last 4 years.
Only one of these of these players is younger than 35 years old.
Only one of these players has posted a 130 wRC+ in 3 of the last 4 years.
If you're going to question it, tell us why, and exactly what you're questioning. Do a little digging and show us some data to back it up. What do Turner or Duvall give the Sox that Teoscar doesn't? Show your work.
I don't think it's necessarily a bad idea to have one thread to talk about the possible signing and another to address whether there are other/better options out there, but if you're going to start the conversation you've got to bring a lot more in your opening post than you did here. Show us what you got.
Longer term members, I hope you'll take this opportunity to model what the expectations here are, while at the same time exercising some patience as newer folks get acclimated. Thanks!
Here’s my case for Teo, whom I would love to add (but get a bit skeptical at some of the valuations floating around):
He is a legitimate right-handed power threat, which we very much need to protect our lefty bats in the middle of the order. 80th-plus percentile (even in his down 2023) in a bunch of the contact quality metrics: hard hit percentage, barrel rate, exit velocity. In prior years, he was above the 90th percentile in those stats.
The problem, obviously, is the K rate, which shows a troubling trend towards Dalbec territory. This would incline me to want to limit the duration of the contract, because there’s real implosion risk with him if that goes any higher. But I think that’s an appropriate risk/reward proposition for where we’re at on the success cycle: if he can get the K rate back to the mid 20s, he’d be a beast, a perfect cleanup hitter to put between Yoshida and Casas. If it stays around 30, he’s okay. But if it goes much higher: yikes. I’d love him on a two-year deal (the Roman Anthony timeline); and could live with three. Four, I get wary.
But the question was a comparison to Turner or Duvall. Turner (whom I like!) is more of a contact over power guy at this stage, and offers nil in defensive value, which we need to improve the teams biggest weakness. Duvall made sense as an emergency CF after Story went down, but he’s not much of a defender anymore, and the statcast numbers suggest that his performance may not be sustainable: all of his expected numbers in 2023 were closer to his so-so 2022 performance than his strong 2023 performance. If he provided average defense in the outfield, you might take the risk that he can pull off that trick again, but as it stands, it feels like a worse risk/reward than Teo.
He is a legitimate right-handed power threat, which we very much need to protect our lefty bats in the middle of the order. 80th-plus percentile (even in his down 2023) in a bunch of the contact quality metrics: hard hit percentage, barrel rate, exit velocity. In prior years, he was above the 90th percentile in those stats.
The problem, obviously, is the K rate, which shows a troubling trend towards Dalbec territory. This would incline me to want to limit the duration of the contract, because there’s real implosion risk with him if that goes any higher. But I think that’s an appropriate risk/reward proposition for where we’re at on the success cycle: if he can get the K rate back to the mid 20s, he’d be a beast, a perfect cleanup hitter to put between Yoshida and Casas. If it stays around 30, he’s okay. But if it goes much higher: yikes. I’d love him on a two-year deal (the Roman Anthony timeline); and could live with three. Four, I get wary.
But the question was a comparison to Turner or Duvall. Turner (whom I like!) is more of a contact over power guy at this stage, and offers nil in defensive value, which we need to improve the teams biggest weakness. Duvall made sense as an emergency CF after Story went down, but he’s not much of a defender anymore, and the statcast numbers suggest that his performance may not be sustainable: all of his expected numbers in 2023 were closer to his so-so 2022 performance than his strong 2023 performance. If he provided average defense in the outfield, you might take the risk that he can pull off that trick again, but as it stands, it feels like a worse risk/reward than Teo.
The only advantage I see is age. All hit for power. Teoscar and Duvall are high K guys, Duvall being the better defender. Duvall drives me nuts with his streakiness but when hot is crazy hot. Turner much more consistent. These are all 20 to 35 HR guys. Turner being an infielder who can play the corners once in a while adds some value but we all know his time in the field is very limited. 2023 WAR look pretty similar with Teoscar in the middle at 1.4, Duvall at 1.6 and Turner at 1.2. I just dont see him moving the needle and improving the ballclub over last year's last place performance.
Couple of things here. "All hit for power" is a bit blunt on the analysis; despite a down year, Teoscar's career slugging is better than the other two by 10/20 points. You can wave your hand and say "20-35 HR guys" are all the same, but, over the last three years, Teo 83 HR, Duvall 57, Turner 63. That's a noteable difference. And as far as "moving the needle" vs last years team, well, right now we have none of these guys under contract for 2024. Maybe you think Turner's the best of the bunch or the best value or whatever but, they definitely do need a right handed bat and Teo looks like a little bit more reliable source of pure power to me. I agree it won't blast them out of last place but not every signing can be a bold faced headline kinda thing.
Would using counting stats like home runs without context be a bit blunt on the analysis?
Well, in this case, part of the argument for Teoscar over Duvall is that the former has done a better job staying on the field the last couple of years, so the counting stats reflect this.
If all we need is righthanded power, are we done with Dalbec? His splits vs LHH are better than Teoscar's (126 OPS+ vs 119) and vs RHH, I mean, maybe he can bump it up to something close to what Teoscar gives you. Obviously Hernandez is better in a vacuum but I'm not sure I can see like $70m worth of difference. However frustrated people have been with Dalbec in the past, we probably need to know that there's no improvement available before buying a slightly better version (31% k rate vs 35%) for that much money.
Because he crushed AAA last year, above anything he'd done before (notably an increased walk rate), and because players do continue to develop. I get all the stuff about what he's done (not buying he went backward last year based on 53 ABs but otherwise yeah). But here's the downside of Hernandez: you sign him for a borderline untradeable number, he's caught and passed by Anthony within a year, and Dalbec goes somewhere else and puts up about the same production. I'm sure the Sox know better than me about whether Dalbec is salvageable and capable of improvement, and maybe the answer is no, but unless we really think Hernandez is just going to go crazy hitting at Fenway, it's a lot of money going to very little improvement.
Yeah, you would have to have some confidence, and/or ride out some LHH/LHP ABs if you aren't even willing to put him in there against those guys. Abreu might be unplayable against LHP, so they'd be taking a few lumps as teams align bad matchups.
You need to factor in that the International League had a major jump in offense overall last year too, the whole league OPS jumped from .750 in 2022 to .794 in 2023.
Also players definitely continue to develop and I agree there is often value in 25-27 year olds who haven't fully figured it out yet, but Dalbec turns 29 in June.
If Dalbec is going to get a chance, it’s either going to be due to a string of injuries that leave him as the best viable option, or with a team like Oakland, who’s biggest strength is that they can afford to give opportunities to guys like him.
Right, and if you can get Teoscar on a two year deal, that's a lot better management of their risk. Four years x $20m or whatever... not sure.
As noted by others, International League offenses went nuts this year, largely due to the new ABS system, and while Dalbec did do a commendable job increasing his walk rate, he also bucked a league-wide trend of declining K rates and put up his worst mark in AAA so far at 34%.
I've been vocally skeptical of Teoscar on the whole and hate the idea of MLBTR's 4/80 projection for him, but even if he got that the Sox would still be about $65 million away from payrolls affecting the future of the club. We definitely do need some right handed bat, and I'd sign him to that in a heartbeat if the alternative was Bobby D.
I've been vocally skeptical of Teoscar on the whole and hate the idea of MLBTR's 4/80 projection for him, but even if he got that the Sox would still be about $65 million away from payrolls affecting the future of the club. We definitely do need some right handed bat, and I'd sign him to that in a heartbeat if the alternative was Bobby D.
Yes, the Sox look like they are hoping to inch forward, not burst forward. It really is a shame that they won't put forth the "full throttle" effort we were told is coming. I think this ownership group has rested on its laurels long enough. Like the slave whispered in the ear of the victorious Roman general, "All glory is fleeting".
Perhaps we can reserve this until after the FA period is over. Or better yet just go ahead and start the Red Sox are a bunch of cheap SOBs and have no desire to compete thread so all of that doom and gloom/misery can thrive in one thread rather than pollute all of them
I said in the other thread that I’m not interested in Teoscar beyond a one-year pillow contract - pointing to how he’s failed to adjust his approach to how pitchers are attacking him with more sliders. Also noting that his batted ball profile (all fields approach) isn’t as clean as some of the other right handed sluggers to come to Fenway. I would much prefer a one-year deal in the $8M range for Duvall vs. a multi-year commitment to Teoscar.
However, if I were to argue with myself I would say that even with his flaws, Teoscar is still a solid player that would improve our team. With our current roster, he’s a better fit than Turner as he can competently play corner outfield, allowing Yoshida to DH more. Duvall and Turner are also 35 and 39, respectively, so much more likely to fall off a cliff.
I would also argue that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Hitters are constantly adapting and who knows, maybe Teoscar has spent the offseason in the cage seeing 1,000 sliders a day. You could also make the case that hitting in Seattle disproportionally impacted his performance as evidenced in his home/road splits.
I think he has more upside than Duvall/Turner as he still destroys balls on contact so if he can get his chase/whiff rates back to 2020/2021 levels you’re looking at a very good player and a bargain at $15M-$20M per year.
However, if I were to argue with myself I would say that even with his flaws, Teoscar is still a solid player that would improve our team. With our current roster, he’s a better fit than Turner as he can competently play corner outfield, allowing Yoshida to DH more. Duvall and Turner are also 35 and 39, respectively, so much more likely to fall off a cliff.
I would also argue that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Hitters are constantly adapting and who knows, maybe Teoscar has spent the offseason in the cage seeing 1,000 sliders a day. You could also make the case that hitting in Seattle disproportionally impacted his performance as evidenced in his home/road splits.
I think he has more upside than Duvall/Turner as he still destroys balls on contact so if he can get his chase/whiff rates back to 2020/2021 levels you’re looking at a very good player and a bargain at $15M-$20M per year.
Here's a list of FAs and signings. https://www.mlb.com/news/2023-24-mlb-free-agents-by-position
There are only a bare handful of "bust forward" FA options on the table, thusfar the couple who signed did not want to play in Boston.
The Sox can sign any player to a mega-deal, but overpaying someone will not make them a better player.
If it were me, I’m taking the risk that Tyler O’Neil is this year’s Teoscar (or Renfroe, or Duvall) and spend the money on more innings from the starting rotation instead.
I’d give Duran, Rafaela, O’Neil, and Abreu all roughly equal playing time in the outfield, playing up platoon advantages and riding the hot hand if and when you can. Duran plays mostly LF and some CF. O’Neil mostly RF. Abreu plays both corners. I’d ride with Rafaela in CF and let him sink or swim with the bat because turning doubles into outs is a huge help for a pitching staff that needs all it can get. Plus, he’s been putting up great numbers in AA and AAA. Is he really likely to figure out the plate discipline thing in Worcester if he’s not being challenged?
Yoshida is the primary DH and fills in LF innings when you need him to. Refsnyder’s OBP skills vs. LHP are unfortunately cut in this scenario because I don’t think there’s room for him on the roster assuming 13 pitchers.
Of course, all this changes if any of the current outfielders are traded for pitching, which clearly is a realistic possibility. In that case, Teoscar (his name may be juuust cool enough to enter “Madonna” or “Prince” territory) makes much more sense to me. Still, with his level of swing and miss, and with his 20s in the rearview mirror, I’d hesitate giving him four years because I think it’s very likely all of the outfielders on the roster outside of Refsnyder will be better than him in the near future.
I’d give Duran, Rafaela, O’Neil, and Abreu all roughly equal playing time in the outfield, playing up platoon advantages and riding the hot hand if and when you can. Duran plays mostly LF and some CF. O’Neil mostly RF. Abreu plays both corners. I’d ride with Rafaela in CF and let him sink or swim with the bat because turning doubles into outs is a huge help for a pitching staff that needs all it can get. Plus, he’s been putting up great numbers in AA and AAA. Is he really likely to figure out the plate discipline thing in Worcester if he’s not being challenged?
Yoshida is the primary DH and fills in LF innings when you need him to. Refsnyder’s OBP skills vs. LHP are unfortunately cut in this scenario because I don’t think there’s room for him on the roster assuming 13 pitchers.
Of course, all this changes if any of the current outfielders are traded for pitching, which clearly is a realistic possibility. In that case, Teoscar (his name may be juuust cool enough to enter “Madonna” or “Prince” territory) makes much more sense to me. Still, with his level of swing and miss, and with his 20s in the rearview mirror, I’d hesitate giving him four years because I think it’s very likely all of the outfielders on the roster outside of Refsnyder will be better than him in the near future.
It is. It's at least less blunt than just throwing out "power hitters" and "20-35 HR hitters." And while it wasn't very nuanced or interesting... come on, there was a rate stat in the post too.