Sox in on Miley

[Corsi]

Mike Loyko ‏@NEPD_Loyko  17s18 seconds ago
Rangers reporter on MLB Network right now and said he "believes #RedSox have jumped Rangers and closed in on a deal for Wade Miley"

 

[DJnVa]

 
Mike Loyko ‏@NEPD_Loyko  17s18 seconds ago
Rangers reporter on MLB Network right now and said he "believes #RedSox have jumped Rangers and closed in on a deal for Wade Miley"
 

 
 
Interesting. I wonder if this is Cespedes leaving. Read another article that AZ wanted to get rid of Trumbo as well, but clearly he's not coming here. But if they can't move Trumbo, another OFer wouldn't seem to be what they want.
 

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

 
 
Interesting. I wonder if this is Cespedes leaving. Read another article that AZ wanted to get rid of Trumbo as well, but clearly he's not coming here. But if they can't move Trumbo, another OFer wouldn't seem to be what they want.
 

I would hope they could get something better than Miley for Cespedes. I get the three years of control and all but this isn't a number one or number two it's more like a 3 or a 4 in a solid rotation.

 

[StuckOnYouk]

Not a bad add to the rotation depending of course on what goes the other way...if this is true. 
 
His xFIP of 3.50 ranks 31st of all qualified SP's between Mike Leake and Hideki Kuroda.
28 years old
Last 3 years xFIP - 3.75; 3.77; 3.50

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Cespedes for Miley would be a terrible trade. Aside from eating a bunch of innings, Miley is a bottom of the rotation guy who probably should stay away from the AL East.
 
Even if the deal was for Craig, I'd be torn between just keeping Craig and stashing him in AAA in case Napoli gets hurt and seeing what he might be able to give us at 1B in 2016.

 

[DJnVa]

I would hope they could get something better than Miley for Cespedes. I get the three years of control and all but this isn't a number one or number two it's more like a 3 or a 4 in a solid rotation.

 
Might not be "better" than Miley, but it could be "more"---could be prospects moving, etc.
 
Right now though, we have an abundance of OFers and need SPs.
 
 
 

Cespedes for Miley would be a terrible trade
 

 
You guys all realize that I didn't necessarily mean straight up right? There could be more involved if this is even Cespedes moving.

 

[YTF]

Not so sure Dawg, there is a big difference in $$$ going Arizona's way.

 

[Corsi]

Sean McAdam ‏@Sean_McAdam  6s6 seconds ago
Another team which had interest in Wade Miley has dropped out of negotiations with Arizona, convinced D'backs are close to deal w/ Red Sox.

 

[pjr]

Sean McAdam @Sean_McAdam
· 36s 36 seconds ago
Another team which had interest in Wade Miley has dropped out of negotiations with Arizona, convinced D'backs are close to deal w/ Red Sox.

https://twitter.com/Sean_McAdam/status/542785733614764032

 

[moondog80]

Cespedes for Miley would be a terrible trade. Aside from eating a bunch of innings, Miley is a bottom of the rotation guy who probably should stay away from the AL East.
 
Even if the deal was for Craig, I'd be torn between just keeping Craig and stashing him in AAA in case Napoli gets hurt and seeing what he might be able to give us at 1B in 2016.

 
 
Steamer FIP projections:
 
Miley 3.73
Shields 3.56
Samardzija 3.68
Porcello 3.84
 
EDIT: I had used ERA instead of FIP for the non-Miley guys, my bad.  Still, the point remains that Miley is in the same class.  And cheaper, with three years of control. 

 

[67WasBest]

Is Miley possibly the target of another team and the Sox are acquiring him as they work toward a larger fish?
 
I can understand the interest in Miley, but the fit doesn't seem right.
 

 
Steamer FIP projections:
 
Miley 3.73
Shields 3.62
Samardzija 3.91
Porcello 4.15

Or maybe the fit is fine.  That is a nice FIP projection.

 

[Carmen Fanzone]

If this deal -whatever it is - works out, I think it will be the first time the Red Sox ever beat Dave Stewart at anything.

 

[MakMan44]

 
 
Steamer FIP projections:
 
Miley 3.73
Shields 3.62
Samardzija 3.91
Porcello 4.15

I don't buy that Miley is going end up being better than Shark. I like him at the right price, but come on, this means nothing. 

 

[DJnVa]

Not so sure Dawg, there is a big difference in $$$ going Arizona's way.

 
 
Which of course, also has value, and *could* be a reason the return would "only" be Miley--saving $$$ to spend elsewhere. My only point is I assumed everyone would understand that by saying "I wonder if this is Cespedes" doesn't mean I thought the trade was straight up. It meant that he's been acknowledged as someone we'd be likely dealing so he could be involved.

 

[phenweigh]

Looking at Miley's splits, he's been better on the road then at home.  Maybe the Sox think a change of scenery will do him good.

 

[MakMan44]

The Diamondbacks appear to be focused on acquiring pitching in return for the 28-year-old left-hander.

 
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/12/10/source-red-sox-showing-interest-in-diamondbacks-pitcher-wade-miley/

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Not a fan.  I think Webster is probably a better pitcher right now.

 

[MakMan44]

Not a fan.  I think Webster is probably a better pitcher right now.

Based on what, 3 starts? 

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

If it's Webster or RDLR then Ben might need to be tarred and feathered in Kenmore Square. I doubt that the Sox have jumped the shark that much.

 

[Todd Benzinger]

Maybe AZ wants younger, cheaper guys with more years of control back? If so, swapping a few of our surplus of young starters for a guy, in Miley, who is much more projectable as a innings-eating lefty starter would make sense for the Sox.
 
This combined with the Jedi offer rumor suggests to me that BC is looking to build solid depth in the rotation rather than trying to get an "ace"

 

[saintnick912]

Obligatory "we already had Wade Miller, I thought his arm fell off" post based on misreading the thread title.

 

[DJnVa]

Not a fan.  I think Webster is probably a better pitcher right now.

 
 
Can you support that?
 

 

[MakMan44]

What I find awesome is that Miley's numbers are bloated from an insane HR/9 ratio at home. It drops to .43 away, which makes a lot of sense given his high GB%. I'm excited because if the price is right, this seems like it could be a sneaky great deal. 
 
EDIT: That was from 2014. The trend continues throughout his career, but the gap is a bit smaller. Still starting to come around to the deal.

 

[foulkehampshire]

 
 
Can you support that?
 

 
No, he can't.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Miley's got three pre-FA years left, is right in his prime, and has been a league-average pitcher. How that isn't worth Webster or RDLR I'm not sure. Sure, either of them could turn out to better than that, but (relative) certainty is worth something, especially when it's priced below market.
 
Basically, anything resembling a proven major league pitcher that we can get without giving up Betts/Bogaerts/Swihart is OK by me.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

There are a couple of things from his fangraphs page that we can cling to for warmth during the cold nights ahead. First, his ground ball percentage was an impressive 51% last year and 52% the year before. That's a good thing if he's pitching in Fenway for half of his starts. He's also had respectable xFIPs the last three years. 3.75, 3.77 and 3.50. He had solid ERA-'s in 2012 and 2013 of 81 and 91, though he had a 114 last year which is 14% worse than league average.
 
He'd be a solid middle of the rotation acquisition with an approach that looks like it would be helped by pitching in Fenway with a solid defense and a home run suppressing left center, center and right center field, and a bit of upside. He doesn't strike anyone out and he'll need to get that BB/9 back down under 3 to be more than rotation filler, though.

 

[moondog80]

I don't buy that Miley is going end up being better than Shark. I like him at the right price, but come on, this means nothing. 

 
I had mistakenly used ERA instead of FIP for the non-Miley guys in my comparison, which made Miley look a little better.  Still, even after fixing it, he looks good next to those guys, especially considering price/control.  Is there something specific about the steamer model that make you think it wouldn't properly predict Miley in patricular?

 

[Gash Prex]

Under what circumstance is Webster a better pitcher right now?  He probably has a higher ceiling, but Miley numbers are proven at the ML level. 

 

[MakMan44]

 
I had mistakenly used ERA instead of FIP for the non-Miley guys in my comparison, which made Miley look a little better.  Still, even after fixing it, he looks good next to those guys, especially considering price/control.  Is there something specific about the steamer model that make you think it wouldn't properly predict Miley in patricular?

I don't know anything about the projection models, so I can't answer this. I just have a hard time picturing Miley being theoretically better than Shark next season is all.   

 

[nvalvo]

I like this idea. His 2014 sort of sucked because of a crazy HR spike in the first half. He pitches in one of the handful of parks that is *more* of a hitters' park than Fenway, especially for HR. And he gave up most of them at home: his 2014 SLGa in Chase was .140 higher than away. 
 
He's thrown 190+ IP three years in a row, and he'll be an Arb 1.
 
We need innings!

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

As a stand alone, add-Miley-as-a-key-piece to the 2015 rotation, I'm underwhelmed.  Depth is nice.  So is quality.  This doesn't solve the need for a #1 or #2-caliber starter.
 
But I'm sort of hoping Ben emerges from the Lester loss as a Chess Grand Master, making a few strategic, "two dimes for a quarter" trades before surprising all with one or two big, killer trades.  Step one in a 4 or 5 step process...

 

[The Celtbot]

Looking at Miley's splits, he's been better on the road then at home.  Maybe the Sox think a change of scenery will do him good.

I   Split W L W-L%  ERA  G GS GF CG SHO SV    IP   H  R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP  BF  WHIP SO9 SO/W
     Home 3 7 .300 5.61 16 16  0  0   0  0  96.1 110 62 60 18 30   1 93   1  0  6 424 1.453 8.7 3.10
     Away 5 5 .500 3.17 17 17  0  0   0  0 105.0  97 41 37  5 45   2 90   3  0  3 442 1.352 7.7 2.00

 

[moondog80]

Miley's got three pre-FA years left, is right in his prime, and has been a league-average pitcher. How that isn't worth Webster or RDLR I'm not sure. Sure, either of them could turn out to better than that, but (relative) certainty is worth something, especially when it's priced below market.
 
Basically, anything resembling a proven major league pitcher that we can get without giving up Betts/Bogaerts/Swihart is OK by me.

 
If they get him with Webster or RDR as the main piece, it's a steal.  There might not be room for those two guys in the Pawtucket rotation (Owens/Barnes/Workman/Johnson/Rodriguez/Ranuado), never mind Boston.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Looking at Miley's splits, he's been better on the road then at home.  Maybe the Sox think a change of scenery will do him good.

 
Just to play devil's advocate, when you pitch at Chase and Dodger, AT&T and Petco are in your division, your road stats are pretty likely to be better than your home stats. I don't think we should expect those gaudy road ERA's (3.17 last year, 3.31 career) to translate. But he's probably an upper-3's-to-4 guy in the AL East. That would be useful.

 

[phenweigh]

What I find awesome is that Miley's numbers are bloated from an insane HR/9 ratio at home. It drops to .43 away, which makes a lot of sense given his high GB%. I'm excited because if the price is right, this seems like it could be a sneaky great deal. 
 
EDIT: That was from 2014. The trend continues throughout his career, but the gap is a bit smaller. Still starting to come around to the deal.

Seems strange for a guy with a high GB%, but I wonder if this means he gives up a lot of long fly outs in the more expansive NL West parks that clear the wall in Arizona.  If so, he could be prone to yielding Fenway homers. 

 

[mt8thsw9th]

Not a fan.  I think Webster is probably a better pitcher right now.

 
I've seen some insane stuff here, but this is probably the insane-ist. Miley has a 3.79 ERA over 600+ MLB innings; Webster regressed in AAA and was awful in his stint in MLB. 
 
And even though the Red Sox got Cespedes in a deal for Lester does not necessarily other teams put that much value on him, especially with only a year of control left. I wouldn't imagine Miley being any worse than the upper limit of what they'll get, pitching wise. That aside, it doesn't look like that will be the deal.
 
If they can get anything of value for Webster (and a 28 year old lefty who had a 3.98 FIP in over 200 innings is certainly valuable), then you pull the trigger. Any young pitcher not named Owens, de la Rosa, or Rodriguez should be fair game.

 

[foulkehampshire]

Not to be understated, he's an LHP. This could fill a huge void in the rotation, I like. I don't exactly love it, but there's more to come I assume. 

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Miley is arbitration eligible in 2015. FA in 2018.
 
No comment - just for info.

 

[Corsi]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal  14s15 seconds ago
Sources: #Marlins, #Rangers out on Miley. Process of elimination points to #RedSox unless another team is involved.

 

[pjheff]

 This combined with the Jedi offer rumor suggests to me that BC is looking to build solid depth in the rotation rather than trying to get an "ace"

That was my immediate reaction as well. How does Ben respond to the loss of Lester? Does he overpay in money on the free agent market or prospects in trade? One possibility is that he focuses on a deeper rotation that sacrifices singular excellence for a chance to win every day. He could conceivably trade young arms for Miley, sign Masterson to a make good contract, and look to flip Cespedes for Latos or Porcello. The result is a rotation of 25-30 year olds, all proven at the ML level, with many accustomed to throwing 200 innings.

 

[phenweigh]

 
Just to play devil's advocate, when you pitch at Chase and Dodger, AT&T and Petco are in your division, your road stats are pretty likely to be better than your home stats. I don't think we should expect those gaudy road ERA's (3.17 last year, 3.31 career) to translate. But he's probably an upper-3's-to-4 guy in the AL East. That would be useful.

I looked at the splits for the other Diamondback starters, and being better on the road was not a consistent trend.  Collmenter, for example, was much better at home.

 

[MakMan44]

Seems strange for a guy with a high GB%, but I wonder if this means he gives up a lot of long fly outs in the more expansive NL West parks that clear the wall in Arizona.  If so, he could be prone to yielding Fenway homers. 

This was an interesting point so I asked Neil Weinberg from FG if there was a way to check average fly ball distances for pitchers. 
 

You can do it with Baseball Savant, at least if you download the spreadsheet. You can do it for hitters at BBHM, so pitchers might work too

 
Now, that means nothing to me, but there does seem to be a way to see if your theory checks out. 

 

[Trlicek's Whip]

Steamer FIP projections:
 
Miley 3.73
Shields 3.56
Samardzija 3.68
Porcello 3.84
 
EDIT: I had used ERA instead of FIP for the non-Miley guys, my bad.  Still, the point remains that Miley is in the same class.  And cheaper, with three years of control. 

 
This isn't a bad start to get reimbursed on the 200 left-handed innings they just lost from Lester; Miley's topped 200 IP the last two seasons.
 
And it doesn't preclude other moves made to get other arms. 

 

[Comebacker to Foulke]

He sits about 91. His track record is encouraging, and his player photo on bbref is amusing.
 
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mileywa01.shtml

 

[veritas]

I'd be surprised to see Cespedes involved if AZ is getting rid of Trumbo. They're basically the same player (when healthy); 2-3 WAR, high power, low OBP, mediocre defensive OF

 

[circus catch]

Most comparable historical player to Miley (on Baseball Reference) after his age 27 season is Donovan Osborne, who won a total of 11 games after his age 27 season.
 
On the other hand, that can't be an easy park to pitch in, so maybe he's a little better than we think. 

 

[curly2]

I posted this is another thread, but non-elite NL pitchers scare me. Miley made four interleague starts last year and got murdered: 20.2 innings, 20 earned runs.
 
Also looking at his splits last year, he was great in July, mediocre in May and bad to awful the other four months.

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

I posted this is another thread, but non-elite NL pitchers scare me. Miley made four interleague starts last year and got murdered: 20.2 innings, 20 earned runs.
 
Also looking at his splits last year, he was great in July, mediocre in May and bad to awful the other four months.

I hear you as a general point about pitchers doing better in NL than AL, but why would 4 starts be evidence of a more specific problem for Miley?

 

[StuckOnYouk]

Not that this means it isn't the Sox, but didn't Ben just say an hour or so ago he doesn't envision getting a starter by the weekend? 
 
Maybe something quick happened or he was just blowing smoke to get in and out of the presser without saying anything.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

That was my immediate reaction as well. How does Ben respond to the loss of Lester? Does he overpay in money on the free agent market or prospects in trade? One possibility is that he focuses on a deeper rotation that sacrifices singular excellence for a chance to win every day. He could conceivably trade young arms for Miley, sign Masterson to a make good contract, and look to flip Cespedes for Latos or Porcello. The result is a rotation of 25-30 year olds, all proven at the ML level, with many accustomed to throwing 200 innings.

This was kind of the Oriole's approach last year .. Get 5 or 6 durable above average starters and you can win a lot of games. The playoffs on the other hand are a different story ..