A recent 'Top 100' podcast by prospect guru James Anderson piqued my interest in a few unheralded
MLB International Signings While some already appear on minor league cards, most of these players don't have any mainstream releases yet. If I was to step outside the cozy familiar confines of my vintage world to seek the other end of the collecting spectrum - shinny cards of deep sleeper prospects - is Bowman Chrome, specifically Bowman Draft (Bowman Draft Chrome?) the top place to speculate? It appears the Bowman Chrome Draft product has historically been released around New Year's Day.
But what about buying a box vs. joining a break vs. buying on secondary (eBay/FB) markets? If I'm after a few of these players, like the Giants' 17 year old (!) Rayner Arias (signed Jan, 2023) who currently has no cards, would it make more sense to buy unopened, or wait for early eBay sales prices to gauge pricing, then decide? I'm not at all familiar with the pricing calculus that goes into acquiring higher end cards of such prospects.
I think you can safely bracket this stage into two categories: Pre 1st Bowman and Post 1st Bowman.
Ethan Salas is a perfect example. He is a HUGE prospect. He's also a huge prospect who has some on card autos in Onyx (which is a non-licensed brand) and redemptions in Panini Three and Two and Prizm First of the Line (now if those ever come to be who knows) as well as team set minor league cards signed. A ton of this speculation is already priced in, but Ethan Salas is in the "pre-1st Bowman" phase right now that you usually find early IFAs, unhearalded prospects, and HS/College kids in. #2 on the list (Felnin Celestin) is already in Onyx and Upper Deck products as well as Panini from a few years back).You'll see this with a lot of guys where HS, College, International, Minor League, etc. sets all will beat Bowman to the line. However, in this market, Bowman 1sts are absolute king in value so generally if you are playing the speculation game, that's where your focus is best spent.
There are three key Bowman releases every year
Bowman - This is a traditional (base) card set with Chromi Tum inserts, card versions, and autographs. This came out in April this year and generally coincides with the earlier part of the season
Bowman Chrome - All of the cards are Chromium and features a second wave of players (think like a High Series / Series 2 in other sets) and generally runs with the same format as Bowman. This is out this month - I also think you tend to get more "non-first" auto guys, which have value but less value
Bowman Draft - This is usually formatted like Bowman (paper and Chrome cards) but released in December and focused on notable draft picks from the June draft.
Generally, you'll see Draft snap up a lot of the higher picks (not all of them) and then Bowman base and Chrome track the prospect classes and add who they can get.
In terms of speculation, I think there's a few different ways to approach this. My thoughts are below but others can disagree
- If there is a single guy you like a LOT, I'd generally just suggest buying their singles outright if and when they hit the market after the initial wave cools then unless you think they're primed to improve their stock quickly. This is even true for the pricier guys as savvy breakers will absolutely price that into the break value. For instance, the Red Sox "breaK" spot in Bowman for a 12 box hobby case was $129 on DotB's guys with Firehand (I think I saw it for $100 elsewhere, but more in other places). The Red Sox with key autos in the set were Brandon Walter, Freili Enarnancion, Luis Ravelo, and Roman Anthony (Casas had an RC Auto, Mayer and Jordan had insert autos I never saw). Until Anthony went insane inn A+, you could grab a numbered Anthony auto for less than that case break cost. You can still grab a Casas numbered rookie auto for that price I watched numerous breaks where the Sox got nothing notable or a different auto that's a $5-$10 card right now. I think team breaks a bit more viable if there's one guy you really like and he's the only guy on that team in the set, so you're not an Anthony guy paying for the Brandon Walter slot too.
- Some breakers offer player specific auctions for big products like this. I think you'll pay an outsized price for a highly demanded name but it's a great way to really hone in on a guy. I just did one with a breaker who was ripping 2022 Retail/Mega Boxes and grabbed a few prospects I still like for their current price (George Valera, non-first Jasson Dominguez with the call up, a couple Sox guys, Bernabel).
- Very generally, the more specific you get - the more you're paying for the privilege. Breakers will take their cut and charge more than the boxes cost them, and if they have to do the legwork of pricing teams or doing player auctions, you can expect those to go for even more money.
- If there is a team you like a lot of guys on, it can be worth looking to see if you think a breaker has mispriced their slot and buy in that way. I'd probably only recommend it if you feel like it's a good team class of guys. I know some folks who did that with KC and Colorado on the most recent run. I thought Baltimore was pretty heavily underpriced given Adley and Gunnar rookies, Holliday autos, and a reasonable solid 1st auto class (I ended up with two Braylin Taveras that I'm holding on to and I might buy more...). I thought Oakland ended up being a bit sneaky with Colby Thomas autos and Zack Gelof's first Bowman nonautos in there. People bullish on Philly with Boyd, Lee, and Crawford are likely pretty happy, etc. I still think over time it'll make more sense to just buy the singles but it's worth looking
- Review your checklists hardcore before you start buying teams, and then a few months later check them again. The first review is to see what prospects you like actually have in the set. You generally want to aim for those with their first Bowman Autos...but some legitimate prospects won't have autos as part of the set (Luis Lara and Zack Gelof were two bigger guys in the last set who had "Bowman 1st" cards with no autos). Know what you're buying and what you're looking for. Do a second check in later to see if the cards you want exist. I did that with the Bowman 2023 set and numerous players were missing parallels entirely and a couple had forged signatures on the market.
- In terms of Boxes vs. Breaks, it's more a preference on how you want to collect. I think if you're a pure "personal collection" guy or you have strong opinions over the best guys/teams in a product, I like breaks. If you think a product is just really solid and would be happy with maneuvering what you get for something you want more (buy/sell, trade, etc.), buying the packs and ripping them yourself is probably better OR doing a random team break where you have a chance at a great team for a lower price.
- The best way to make money with Bowman is probably buying the boxes, letting them age, and then selling them as their premier prospects hit the bigs or before they realize the set had a lot of duds in them. Speculators will go on for years and generally box prices don't drop too hard as long as they produce one or two guys that have potential star qualities. For instance, 2021 Bowman Chrome boxes still cost $200 for a hobby and your big name first prospect autos are guys like Christopher Morel, Ezequiel Tovar, and Jeferson Quero, - good potential players but no Elly or Jackson Holliday or Julio Rodriguez. If you get one of those guys to emerge suddenly the profit ceiling is much higher.
- The more successful people I see at this play it more like the stock market than the gambling of box ripping. They'll ID a few guys they like and then hunt deals constantly to increase their stock of the card or improve the quality of what they have, selling other things they accumulate on the way. If you like some guys and you want to go breaks or boxes, be prepared to convert the cards of guys you're NOT as high on into income to put back into the guys you like. To compound this...rip early and sell early generally is the call, with buying later. With Chrome and Draft those player values are likely set til the Spring anyway, and you want that new product hype. If my game were to speculate on guys I'd do my ripping early, and move those cards out ASAP on guys I don't believe in, and then as the product cools start buying up the guys I do like a lot.
- Note: Buy later can be wrong if the prospect improves, so you know...that's where judgment comes in. A lot of these guys though are slower incubators or don't see that spike - Jefferson Quero is the #33 prospect on MLB.com's prospect list and his Bowman 1st auto from two years ago are only now getting past that $20 price point.
- In terms of really long term thoughts...if I were going for speculation I'd only be holding Bowman 1sts of guys who I thought would be absolute stars long term (as in, I'd sell during or before their rookie year). The market is not very forgiving to guys who turn into good MLB players, the massive stars are where the money ends up falling, and even then you have to deal with the market just not liking a guy. You can buy Alex Bregman Bowman 1st autos for a similar price to Ceddanne Rafaelas.
- Fun game: I did a very brief foray back into cards around 2017 before I had to bow out due to life, but in that time I bought into a few breaks. One of those was a Bowman break where I hit a Bowman 1st auto of Austin Hays - Purple, Numbered to 250. The card at the time was probably a $75-$125 card in the condition I had it in (Mint 9 with a 10 auto). Austin Hays is a very solid, 2-3 WAR starting outfielder for one of the best stories in baseball and he made the All-Star game this year. He's also probably one of the top three autos in that set as of today (Jazz Chisholm and Luis Arraez beat him but I think he's up there among the rest). By all means, still one of the best hits in the set. That card raw sold for $20 on ebay the other day. I can buy the 9.5 version of it on COMC right now for $60.
So, long and short of it, let's say Rayner Arias is on the Bowman Chrome checklist that should be out any day now and you commit to going in on collecting him. I'd see how big you are on the Giants overall and, if you like their class a lot, target them in team breaks and Arias in player breaks if you want to go in on breaks. I'd probably avoid ripping wax just for that - singles will be more efficient but if you think he might blow up in Winter Leagues it might be worth getting in early. Otherwise I might wait a bit for product hype to die down and then start buying before ST/Spring heats up if you really like him.
And if he's not on the list...wait til next year? Topps can be slow on this stuff. Blowout Forums suggests these are included but that the auto list might be 100+ guys - some folks are optimistic on Salas being in there.
Prospect Autographs
Keiner Delgado (Yankees)
Dario Laverde (Angels)
Bryant Betancourt (Rockies)
Brando Mayea (Yankees)
Dangelo Sarmiento (Mets)
Javier Osorio (Tigers)
Daniel Mateo (Rangers)
Yosy Galan (Rangers)
Daiverson Gutierrez (Mets)
Camilo Diaz (Astros)
Bladimir Restituyo (Rockies)
Diego Mosquera (Mets)
Adan Sanchez (Cubs)
Jordy Vargas (Rockies)
Adrian Pinto (Blue Jays)
Anderson de los Santos (Orioles)
Ariel Castro (Twins)
Marco Vargas (Marlins)
Jorel Ortega (Twins)
Abner Uribe (Brewers)
Connor Staine (Rockies)
Freddy Bencosme (Orioles)
Welbyn Francisca (Guardians)
Alfredo Duno (Reds)
Zack Gelof (A's)
Joendry Vargas (Dodgers)