Sports Cards Mania
- Thread starter brandonchristensen
- Start date
Depends on the card. The extreme high end stuff, I doubt it will have much effect, at least for a while. The Asian market is still and will likely continue to be, nuts for Ohtani especially on the higher end. But I think we see a drop in the base cards that have been going for say, $5-25.
I think there may be a bit more of an outsized effect than that only because the market has already kind of priced in all of the Shohei insanity prior to this. I think a lot of people were buying and selling Ohtani cards under presumption of MVP and a record setting contract for the Dodgers as opposed to dealing with this. I'm with DoTB the Asian markets and high end items probably don't see a huge shift overall, but I think we'll see a bit of a bigger drop especially if his ability to do both long term is put into question.
As an aside, it may not be the worst idea to grab some cheap Topps Chrome of the other AL MVP Candidates. I have to imagine even if they shut down Ohtani entirely right now he wins MVP, but I could see Corey Seager, J-Rod, or Kyle Tucker for instance getting a push if they have a hot September and their team makes the playoffs. That $20 buyback credit for Ohtani may not be AS much of a lock as it was.
As an aside, it may not be the worst idea to grab some cheap Topps Chrome of the other AL MVP Candidates. I have to imagine even if they shut down Ohtani entirely right now he wins MVP, but I could see Corey Seager, J-Rod, or Kyle Tucker for instance getting a push if they have a hot September and their team makes the playoffs. That $20 buyback credit for Ohtani may not be AS much of a lock as it was.
Josh Beckett? Only going by what looks like a J and possibly a B, Quick check and it looks nothing like Beckett's signature.
A recent 'Top 100' podcast by prospect guru James Anderson piqued my interest in a few unheralded MLB International Signings While some already appear on minor league cards, most of these players don't have any mainstream releases yet. If I was to step outside the cozy familiar confines of my vintage world to seek the other end of the collecting spectrum - shinny cards of deep sleeper prospects - is Bowman Chrome, specifically Bowman Draft (Bowman Draft Chrome?) the top place to speculate? It appears the Bowman Chrome Draft product has historically been released around New Year's Day.
But what about buying a box vs. joining a break vs. buying on secondary (eBay/FB) markets? If I'm after a few of these players, like the Giants' 17 year old (!) Rayner Arias (signed Jan, 2023) who currently has no cards, would it make more sense to buy unopened, or wait for early eBay sales prices to gauge pricing, then decide? I'm not at all familiar with the pricing calculus that goes into acquiring higher end cards of such prospects.
But what about buying a box vs. joining a break vs. buying on secondary (eBay/FB) markets? If I'm after a few of these players, like the Giants' 17 year old (!) Rayner Arias (signed Jan, 2023) who currently has no cards, would it make more sense to buy unopened, or wait for early eBay sales prices to gauge pricing, then decide? I'm not at all familiar with the pricing calculus that goes into acquiring higher end cards of such prospects.
Basically any color chrome auto of any prospect goes for far more than it ever should most times nowadays.
Bowman chrome autos are the way to go for prospects.
Breaks vs boxes - it’s all luck. I’ve been in some where I barely hit an auto let alone a color auto and I’ve been in others where I’ve hit multiple gold or better autos.
Buying Singles - I’ve found it hard to grab any low numbered autos of any remotely known prospect for reasonable money.
Bowman chrome autos are the way to go for prospects.
Breaks vs boxes - it’s all luck. I’ve been in some where I barely hit an auto let alone a color auto and I’ve been in others where I’ve hit multiple gold or better autos.
Buying Singles - I’ve found it hard to grab any low numbered autos of any remotely known prospect for reasonable money.
I think you can safely bracket this stage into two categories: Pre 1st Bowman and Post 1st Bowman.
Ethan Salas is a perfect example. He is a HUGE prospect. He's also a huge prospect who has some on card autos in Onyx (which is a non-licensed brand) and redemptions in Panini Three and Two and Prizm First of the Line (now if those ever come to be who knows) as well as team set minor league cards signed. A ton of this speculation is already priced in, but Ethan Salas is in the "pre-1st Bowman" phase right now that you usually find early IFAs, unhearalded prospects, and HS/College kids in. #2 on the list (Felnin Celestin) is already in Onyx and Upper Deck products as well as Panini from a few years back).You'll see this with a lot of guys where HS, College, International, Minor League, etc. sets all will beat Bowman to the line. However, in this market, Bowman 1sts are absolute king in value so generally if you are playing the speculation game, that's where your focus is best spent.
There are three key Bowman releases every year
Bowman - This is a traditional (base) card set with Chromi Tum inserts, card versions, and autographs. This came out in April this year and generally coincides with the earlier part of the season
Bowman Chrome - All of the cards are Chromium and features a second wave of players (think like a High Series / Series 2 in other sets) and generally runs with the same format as Bowman. This is out this month - I also think you tend to get more "non-first" auto guys, which have value but less value
Bowman Draft - This is usually formatted like Bowman (paper and Chrome cards) but released in December and focused on notable draft picks from the June draft.
Generally, you'll see Draft snap up a lot of the higher picks (not all of them) and then Bowman base and Chrome track the prospect classes and add who they can get.
In terms of speculation, I think there's a few different ways to approach this. My thoughts are below but others can disagree
- If there is a single guy you like a LOT, I'd generally just suggest buying their singles outright if and when they hit the market after the initial wave cools then unless you think they're primed to improve their stock quickly. This is even true for the pricier guys as savvy breakers will absolutely price that into the break value. For instance, the Red Sox "breaK" spot in Bowman for a 12 box hobby case was $129 on DotB's guys with Firehand (I think I saw it for $100 elsewhere, but more in other places). The Red Sox with key autos in the set were Brandon Walter, Freili Enarnancion, Luis Ravelo, and Roman Anthony (Casas had an RC Auto, Mayer and Jordan had insert autos I never saw). Until Anthony went insane inn A+, you could grab a numbered Anthony auto for less than that case break cost. You can still grab a Casas numbered rookie auto for that price I watched numerous breaks where the Sox got nothing notable or a different auto that's a $5-$10 card right now. I think team breaks a bit more viable if there's one guy you really like and he's the only guy on that team in the set, so you're not an Anthony guy paying for the Brandon Walter slot too.
- Some breakers offer player specific auctions for big products like this. I think you'll pay an outsized price for a highly demanded name but it's a great way to really hone in on a guy. I just did one with a breaker who was ripping 2022 Retail/Mega Boxes and grabbed a few prospects I still like for their current price (George Valera, non-first Jasson Dominguez with the call up, a couple Sox guys, Bernabel).
- Very generally, the more specific you get - the more you're paying for the privilege. Breakers will take their cut and charge more than the boxes cost them, and if they have to do the legwork of pricing teams or doing player auctions, you can expect those to go for even more money.
- If there is a team you like a lot of guys on, it can be worth looking to see if you think a breaker has mispriced their slot and buy in that way. I'd probably only recommend it if you feel like it's a good team class of guys. I know some folks who did that with KC and Colorado on the most recent run. I thought Baltimore was pretty heavily underpriced given Adley and Gunnar rookies, Holliday autos, and a reasonable solid 1st auto class (I ended up with two Braylin Taveras that I'm holding on to and I might buy more...). I thought Oakland ended up being a bit sneaky with Colby Thomas autos and Zack Gelof's first Bowman nonautos in there. People bullish on Philly with Boyd, Lee, and Crawford are likely pretty happy, etc. I still think over time it'll make more sense to just buy the singles but it's worth looking
- Review your checklists hardcore before you start buying teams, and then a few months later check them again. The first review is to see what prospects you like actually have in the set. You generally want to aim for those with their first Bowman Autos...but some legitimate prospects won't have autos as part of the set (Luis Lara and Zack Gelof were two bigger guys in the last set who had "Bowman 1st" cards with no autos). Know what you're buying and what you're looking for. Do a second check in later to see if the cards you want exist. I did that with the Bowman 2023 set and numerous players were missing parallels entirely and a couple had forged signatures on the market.
- In terms of Boxes vs. Breaks, it's more a preference on how you want to collect. I think if you're a pure "personal collection" guy or you have strong opinions over the best guys/teams in a product, I like breaks. If you think a product is just really solid and would be happy with maneuvering what you get for something you want more (buy/sell, trade, etc.), buying the packs and ripping them yourself is probably better OR doing a random team break where you have a chance at a great team for a lower price.
- The best way to make money with Bowman is probably buying the boxes, letting them age, and then selling them as their premier prospects hit the bigs or before they realize the set had a lot of duds in them. Speculators will go on for years and generally box prices don't drop too hard as long as they produce one or two guys that have potential star qualities. For instance, 2021 Bowman Chrome boxes still cost $200 for a hobby and your big name first prospect autos are guys like Christopher Morel, Ezequiel Tovar, and Jeferson Quero, - good potential players but no Elly or Jackson Holliday or Julio Rodriguez. If you get one of those guys to emerge suddenly the profit ceiling is much higher.
- The more successful people I see at this play it more like the stock market than the gambling of box ripping. They'll ID a few guys they like and then hunt deals constantly to increase their stock of the card or improve the quality of what they have, selling other things they accumulate on the way. If you like some guys and you want to go breaks or boxes, be prepared to convert the cards of guys you're NOT as high on into income to put back into the guys you like. To compound this...rip early and sell early generally is the call, with buying later. With Chrome and Draft those player values are likely set til the Spring anyway, and you want that new product hype. If my game were to speculate on guys I'd do my ripping early, and move those cards out ASAP on guys I don't believe in, and then as the product cools start buying up the guys I do like a lot.
- Note: Buy later can be wrong if the prospect improves, so you know...that's where judgment comes in. A lot of these guys though are slower incubators or don't see that spike - Jefferson Quero is the #33 prospect on MLB.com's prospect list and his Bowman 1st auto from two years ago are only now getting past that $20 price point.
- In terms of really long term thoughts...if I were going for speculation I'd only be holding Bowman 1sts of guys who I thought would be absolute stars long term (as in, I'd sell during or before their rookie year). The market is not very forgiving to guys who turn into good MLB players, the massive stars are where the money ends up falling, and even then you have to deal with the market just not liking a guy. You can buy Alex Bregman Bowman 1st autos for a similar price to Ceddanne Rafaelas.
- Fun game: I did a very brief foray back into cards around 2017 before I had to bow out due to life, but in that time I bought into a few breaks. One of those was a Bowman break where I hit a Bowman 1st auto of Austin Hays - Purple, Numbered to 250. The card at the time was probably a $75-$125 card in the condition I had it in (Mint 9 with a 10 auto). Austin Hays is a very solid, 2-3 WAR starting outfielder for one of the best stories in baseball and he made the All-Star game this year. He's also probably one of the top three autos in that set as of today (Jazz Chisholm and Luis Arraez beat him but I think he's up there among the rest). By all means, still one of the best hits in the set. That card raw sold for $20 on ebay the other day. I can buy the 9.5 version of it on COMC right now for $60.
And if he's not on the list...wait til next year? Topps can be slow on this stuff. Blowout Forums suggests these are included but that the auto list might be 100+ guys - some folks are optimistic on Salas being in there.
Prospect Autographs
Keiner Delgado (Yankees)
Dario Laverde (Angels)
Bryant Betancourt (Rockies)
Brando Mayea (Yankees)
Dangelo Sarmiento (Mets)
Javier Osorio (Tigers)
Daniel Mateo (Rangers)
Yosy Galan (Rangers)
Daiverson Gutierrez (Mets)
Camilo Diaz (Astros)
Bladimir Restituyo (Rockies)
Diego Mosquera (Mets)
Adan Sanchez (Cubs)
Jordy Vargas (Rockies)
Adrian Pinto (Blue Jays)
Anderson de los Santos (Orioles)
Ariel Castro (Twins)
Marco Vargas (Marlins)
Jorel Ortega (Twins)
Abner Uribe (Brewers)
Connor Staine (Rockies)
Freddy Bencosme (Orioles)
Welbyn Francisca (Guardians)
Alfredo Duno (Reds)
Zack Gelof (A's)
Joendry Vargas (Dodgers)
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On cue, Bowman Chrome Checklist is out
2023 Bowman Chrome Baseball Checklist, Set Info, Boxes, Date (cardboardconnection.com)
For the Red Sox, only two autos - Luis Perales and Wikelman Gonzalez - their #7 and #8 prospects both pitchers. Normally this would make cheaper but the Babe Ruth 1st Bowman Hunt and the Rookies (Casas and Yoshida) will likely buoy that up, so this may be a singles product for me.
So it all goes back to depending on what you're looking for. San Diego, I presume, will be the most expensive team so if you're Salas hunting, best of luck. Some other big IFA signings (Mayea, Bonilla) are in this too.\
On the bright side for you, Rayner Arias is in and the Giants have pretty much nothing else in the product. In this scenario if you want to rip open packs searching and build up your Ariases, I'd strongly recommend breaks over buying your own boxes, and I'm gonna guess pricing on the Giants will be pretty variable to how the breaker judges an Arias auto. Obviously singles are king but if you really like the kid and want to target him, a break where he is the only target for a team is kinda nice. With that said, there are 132 autograph subjects so even if they all signed equally (they don't), the odds of pulling his auto even in a case break aren't great.
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In other product news, the Ginter checklist is out, and this is the first time I think we've really seen the Fanatics muscle flexed in a baseball product. Some changes of note from past years
- New parallels - while it definitely hasn't gone full Topps, we have a new foil filigree parallel, an in action parallel, and double the short prints
- The non-baseball auto checklist is SUBSTANTIALLY better than in the past handful of years. This has been an issue with Ginter as they went from Pele and Anthony Bourdain autos to like...kid influencers. While we are not back at the A&G Heyday, Fanatics is showing up for this and really adding some big chase autos to the product. I have no idea how often we'll see these but some prominent names include
- Anna Leigh Waters (pickleball phenom)
- Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, and Will Levis (the four most prominent QB prospects this year)
- Victor Wenbenyama and Scoot Henderson (top 2 NBA draft picks)
- Rafael Nadal
- Robert Kraft
- Bun B, DMC, Hoodie Allen, J Balvin, Doggface, Lil Baby, and Meek Mill
- John Dimaggio (BENDER!), Thomas Ian Nichols (HENRY ROWENGARTNER!), and Sarah Natochenny (ASH KETCHUM!)
- They even stumbled into reality TV controversy with the Scandoval features (Tom Sandoval, Tom Schwartz)
- Robert De Niro and Kevin Hart on full sized autos
- Many of the more normal subjects are there (Adam Ray is our token standup, a good one. We have Bomani, Chris Fowler, and Ian Rapoport for sports media, Eric Stonestreet for actors, Sarah Langs for the feel good female baseball auto, etc.)
- We're seeing some MLB names signing we haven't seen in Topps products frequently - no one huge but some names that might have hobby appeal as they aren't constantly signing.
- Not that any of us are hitting cut autos but the names in there are pretty darn massive.
Really phenomenal post, thank you! As I ease back into the hobby, finding I identify more with the 'stock market' approach. I've already been somewhat successful shopping for vintage lots, keeping what I want and selling the rest in smaller lots for more than I paid - might try to apply this to a case break. And your points re: timing of the buy and sell is also quite helpful.
How convenient! So if I understand these checklists, the Chrome Prospects Auto (CPA-RA for Rayner Arias) Superfractor 1/1 (grade 10) should end up being the most valuable? In theory, this is followed by the 1/1 non-auto (BCP-222), then the /5 auto, then /5 non-auto? Although guessing it's probably not that linear. It's all super complicated, but once you understand the various versions, super exciting too. Thanks again.
In a hypothetical world, the Rayner Arias Autographed Superfractor, PSA10 would be the most expensive hypothetical thing you could acquire for him in Bowman. However it's not really linear following that. Very generally, autos will carry a notable premium on these cards, and "solid" colors carry premiums over "waves/speckles/lunar craters/patterned" colors. Just as a fun little test, let's use another IFA prospect from Salas and Arias' class - Derniche Valdez (I also loves that he genuinely tries to write out his name on an auto). Just spot checking recent sales
Base Auto - $15.50, $18
Refractor Auto (/499) - $21.50, $29.99, $31
Speckle Auto (/499) - $47
Purple Auto (/250) - $35.00, $54
Blue Lunar Crater(/150) - $52, $65, $76
Green Shimmer Auto (/99) - $116.38
Gold Shimmer Auto (/50) - $125
Gold Auto (/50) - $224.72, $400, $200
Orange Shimmer Auto (/25) - $225.00, $315
So you can see the trend - rarer it gets, pricier it gets, but generally people pay premiums for both color matches and solid colors, and prices can vary a decent amount depending on condition and buyer demand (highly graded copies carry a substantial premium, I don't get it personally). Given Arias is a Giants prospect, I'd probably expect a bit of a premium on the Orange Autos relative to other players, but that's case by case.
With regards to auto vs. non auto, auto is definitely king. As a comparison of Red Sox hot prospect Roman Anthony. He had a Gold Shimmer non-auto (/50) sell for $125. On the same day his refractor auto (/499) sold for $185. For hot prospects even non-autographed cards will carry value in Bowman (Roman Anthony's non-autoed, numbered cards are often $30+ cards even numbered to /199 or /150 or /250), but autos carry a much higher premium in the market and is more generally what you are looking for if you're looking to strike gold later on.
With all of that said, one of the appeals about Bowman is that if you do find a truly insanely hot prospect - an Elly, a Jackson Holliday, etc. - even their base "Chrome" cards can be valuable. A PSA10 Chrome of Elly (base, no auto) sold for $85 yesterday and even ungraded copies can be $10-$20 cards. So it can all end up mattering to different degrees. In most product "base" cards are never going to hold value, Bowman is one of those exceptions for the right guy.
Anecdotally, at a show last weekend, a dealer was telling me almost half of his inquiries that day were trying to negotiate for his '22 Holliday Bowman Draft Chrome (no auto). Also like ZERO Wanders. It's like the guy never existed. Which is good, I think.
currently investing in autographed cards. Baseball only. Twins or Red Sox mainly. Any suggestions to look for? I have a bunch already, just interested in what else everyone else is looking for.
Right now my general priorities are on card autos, from well designed sets or card styles, within budget constraints. Super vague but that's where my purchase angles have been. Just as some general set ideas and examples.
I just completed the 1998 SP Chirography Set for baseball - something like 7 HoFers and numerous stars on good card stock and very well designed (I posted the Griffey earlier)
I dove into WWE Immaculate on the singles market for the Immaculate Celebrations series - on card, numbered, with great photography. The Immaculate Dual autos and patch autos were similar. Panini lacks MLB licensing and often stickers so not as often there but occasionally they do alright
https://www.ebay.com/itm/266359873702?mkcid=16&mkevt=1&mkrid=711-127632-2357-0&ssspo=TPmKXSNTS_O&sssrc=4429486&ssuid=1_LA__XeQW6&var=&widget_ver=artemis&media=COPY
Bowman 1sts are always welcome. Safe, easy to keep in good shape, market friendly.
For modern products as singles, Heritage autos, Pristine Topps Black Chrome, and Gilded Collection autos are all winners for me. Generally give me a good, clean, on card signing area with a solid design surrounding it. A lot of it is know it when I see it but I feel a lot of current products try to do too much with the card and don't give the players a real negative space to sign without making the card look dumb or making it obvious the card was designed to not be signed but then they made an autographed variant location.
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What I would like to see, is we all post the most expensive cards we all have. That would be cool.
Current only or also vintage? I collected autographed cards for years, mostly Red Sox. Back then it was considered as something which devalued the card. I haven't looked at them in years but I have a lot of them. Do you have interest in these or only the current chase cards?
That Jordan rookie sat in a penny sleeve as part of the full set (132 cards and the 11 sticker - the Jordan sticker graded an 8, too) in a little white set box in my mother's attic for over 20 years.
Among a bunch of 25 cent packs here and there, I bought a box of 86 Fleer packs at Ayotte's state line market in Hudson, NH (on the Tyngsboro, MA line) for $9. It had 3 Jordan cards and 4 stickers in it. I had sold/traded the others years ago when prices were good but not like recently, and they were probably at least 9s because those were the ones chosen.
This one is in great shape but gets knocked because of the centering. Of the entire 132 card set, there are probably 5-6 cards that have perfect centering. Fleer sucked at cutting these, so that's the luck of the draw.
Among a bunch of 25 cent packs here and there, I bought a box of 86 Fleer packs at Ayotte's state line market in Hudson, NH (on the Tyngsboro, MA line) for $9. It had 3 Jordan cards and 4 stickers in it. I had sold/traded the others years ago when prices were good but not like recently, and they were probably at least 9s because those were the ones chosen.
This one is in great shape but gets knocked because of the centering. Of the entire 132 card set, there are probably 5-6 cards that have perfect centering. Fleer sucked at cutting these, so that's the luck of the draw.
I just picked this up…contains game used patches from Babe Ruth, Tom Brady, Gordie Howe, Bruce Lee, Pele, Muhammad Ali, Roger Federer, Kobe Bryant, Joe Montana, Larry Bird, Lionel Messi, Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, Rafael Nadal, Jerry Rice and Mike Trout.
That is quite the card! I did a search on it to learn more about it and saw this card was in the same release. What a fun set!
Hey gang forgive me if this isn't the right forum for this but, I'd like to switch from modern to vintage so I am selling my lot of 57 1st bowman autos (also have a pile of other autos I'd like to sell as a lot) for 25% off Ebay comps, I'm looking for $650. Contact me and I'll get you a list of all the cards (all cards are in penny sleeves, and either toploaded or one-touched and have 2 or 3 psa slabs)
Fanatics is continuing their attempted steamroll of Panini - this time the WWE has also terminated their contract early due to "breach of contract"
The NFLPA did this and Panini is taking Fanatics to court over it, so I expect this will see the same fate.
Selfishly I'll actually be a bit sad over this one. Topps WWE had some good products but it was the one sport where I thought Panini generally did it better. I'll welcome back the entry level WWE Products like Heritage or Topps if that's how they go but Panini's high end wiped the floor (IMO) with what Topps was doing when they lost the license (Undisputed and Fully Loaded were good but they're not Immaculate or Impeccable), and I think the mid-tier was also better for the most part (Prizm and Select just felt like better products than Chrome and Finest for this area).
The NFLPA did this and Panini is taking Fanatics to court over it, so I expect this will see the same fate.
Selfishly I'll actually be a bit sad over this one. Topps WWE had some good products but it was the one sport where I thought Panini generally did it better. I'll welcome back the entry level WWE Products like Heritage or Topps if that's how they go but Panini's high end wiped the floor (IMO) with what Topps was doing when they lost the license (Undisputed and Fully Loaded were good but they're not Immaculate or Impeccable), and I think the mid-tier was also better for the most part (Prizm and Select just felt like better products than Chrome and Finest for this area).
In the spirit of "anything that fucks over Panini is cool with me" I don't care. But fuck Fanatics, also.
I've been having a lot of fun with Ginter this year. It's still Ginter so it has all the weird stuff, but the "Only In..." Ballpark mini inserts and box toppers are great looking (I have a Fenway boxtopper on the way), the celebrity/non baseball list is very much on point this year, and the careful addition of some new chases (In Action and Foil specifically) really make the rip a little less "all or nothing" than it felt before. The only things I don't like is they started hand-numbering the Brooklyn Back inserts on the front and that their full-size inserts are meh (The birds are classic Ginter goodness but Fun in the Sun is boring and the Spotless Spans set is just their filler).
Haven't had any luck in hitting anything huge, but between some case breaks and a couple personal boxes I've hit some nice framed relics (Yadier, ManRam, Jeter w/ a Pinstripe, Ichiro), a few pretty good framed autos, and some other good inserts. Feels like just a more fun, lower pressure break with enough real chases to still get the fun going. I'm definitely trying to build the full size base set and inserts, and maybe this year I tackle the minis as well. Also trying to get a few of the prime non-baseball autos either by luck or by ponying up.
Haven't had any luck in hitting anything huge, but between some case breaks and a couple personal boxes I've hit some nice framed relics (Yadier, ManRam, Jeter w/ a Pinstripe, Ichiro), a few pretty good framed autos, and some other good inserts. Feels like just a more fun, lower pressure break with enough real chases to still get the fun going. I'm definitely trying to build the full size base set and inserts, and maybe this year I tackle the minis as well. Also trying to get a few of the prime non-baseball autos either by luck or by ponying up.
Here's my 2022 Chrome Platinum Anniversary Yaz Rainbow thus far. Need 5 more (6 if you count the superfractor)
edit: Whoops. I wasn't counting the 3 #/5 red variants. I now have the Red #/5 AND the Red Prism (not numbered, but based on stated pack odds, fewer than 10).
So NOW I need 6 more (7 if you count the superfractor) even though I have scored two more very tough ones since I originally posted this.
Edit: scored the black. Now need 5.
edit: Whoops. I wasn't counting the 3 #/5 red variants. I now have the Red #/5 AND the Red Prism (not numbered, but based on stated pack odds, fewer than 10).
So NOW I need 6 more (7 if you count the superfractor) even though I have scored two more very tough ones since I originally posted this.
Edit: scored the black. Now need 5.
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