[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]Folks are grappling in various places with how to get the most value out of the glut of mediocre-to-okay, mostly young pitching talent between Boston and the upper minors. This post in particular is inspired by the discussion around bullpen construction currently going on in the "righting the ship" thread, and Buzzkill's point about the challenge of figuring out who is rotation depth, bullpen depth, or merely dragging us into the depths of sorrow and despair. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]I think the plan for position players is relatively well understood at this point, or at least as well as it can be, but what Dombrowski decides to do with his underwhelming deep depth on the mound is a huge, important question. The 2015 Sox are middle of the pack in the AL for SP xFIP and WAR, despite all the issues; their bullpen, on the other hand, has been wretched.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]The Sox' challenge is to convert a logjam of decent-to-good talent, much of it in limbo between the bullpen and the rotation, into 1) an upgraded top of the rotation and 2) a good bullpen. To illustrate this thought process, I would propose we play a variant of the old water cooler standby "Fuck, Marry, Kill," known as "Start, Sit, Trade." Sit, of course, meaning sit on the bench in the bullpen and wait for the phone to ring. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]Obviously we can also acquire people using money. However, the key decision point in this regarding the talent on the roster is to figure out who can fill out the ML staff and the backup depth in Pawtucket, and who will bring more value being shipped out now before they reach their expiration date. The decision to move a young starter into the pen, or to sell on a prospect, is an exercise in conditional probability that's also heavily influenced by the talent in front of him. So let's try to create a thought process for making those decisions.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]In determining who to keep on a starting track, I think the Sox need to prioritize upside (ability to not just be an adequate back-end guy but a cost-controlled #2 or #3). In general, guys who project as serviceable, cheap back end types are guys you want to keep in that role until you really have to move them, but the Sox have a glut of mid-to-back-end starters. So we should be more likely than usual to either deal those low-ceiling SP types, or send them to the pen.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]So, here is a list of pitchers whom the Sox control into 2016, and who are either firmly starters, firmly relievers, or in limbo. Let's tentatively sort them into the categories of start, sit, trade, with the understanding that all of this can change based on market conditions or future performance.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]You can also put people into the category of "fire into the sun aboard the SS Breslow-Cook-Machi" if you think "trade" is too mild or euphemistic. I didn’t include guys like Diaz or Light who are not yet on the 40. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]Starters[/SIZE]
Buchholz
Porcello
E. Rodriguez
Kelly
Owens
Miley
Relievers:
Koji
Taz
Ross
Layne
Hembree
Varvaro
Aro
Ramirez
Cook
Machi
Limbo:
Wright
Workman
Barnes
Escobar
My notes[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]: Among the starters, I think Kelly’s recent trend and Dombrowski’s preference for hard throwers keeps him on the starting track. Miley I think is likely also in the rotation due to his durability and contract. Johnson could easily have been in limbo, plus he’s hurt. I suspect he stays a starter and provides depth. I also think the need for upside on the top of the rotation means that the Sox probably pick up Buchholz’ option if the medicals aren’t forbidding. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]Wright is a guy who can go into the pen if he projects as one of the best ML relievers, and otherwise should stay in the rotation in Pawtucket. He’s easy to move around and you don’t damage his value by shuffling him since he probably has very little. He is what he is.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]I think Barnes, Escobar and Workman should all be either sent to the pen or traded. Workman and Barnes probably have very little trade value so might as well get them used to relieving - Escobar maybe could be a throw-in this winter but certainly not a headliner. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]Based on the idea that the Sox will probably acquire a front-end SP, I’m going to say that they probably TRADE one of Edro, Owens, or Kelly (possibly as part of a package for said SP). Those guys are good enough and close enough that pushing all three of them to Pawtucket makes little sense - trade one while they have many years of control and potential. You probably also trade whomever from the AAA bullpen can help acquire a SP, if anyone, though there's not much there and you may just end up sitting on them and hoping you don't need them.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]So a rotation of Ace TBD, Buchholz, Porcello, Miley, Kelly, with whoever is left of Owens and Edro as depth or in the rotation if Clay is gone, and Johnson and most likely Wright first up in Pawtucket. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]A bullpen of Koji, Taz, Ross, Workman, Barnes, Layne, and whoever sticks from FA, trades or the depth mentioned here. Obviously guys like Barnes or Layne can ride the shuttle or lose out to Hembree or Ramirez or whatever. All fungible below the top four. Wright could also work his way into the ML pen if they need him. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]EDIT: Table fail. Fuck it just gonna make a list [/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]I think the plan for position players is relatively well understood at this point, or at least as well as it can be, but what Dombrowski decides to do with his underwhelming deep depth on the mound is a huge, important question. The 2015 Sox are middle of the pack in the AL for SP xFIP and WAR, despite all the issues; their bullpen, on the other hand, has been wretched.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]The Sox' challenge is to convert a logjam of decent-to-good talent, much of it in limbo between the bullpen and the rotation, into 1) an upgraded top of the rotation and 2) a good bullpen. To illustrate this thought process, I would propose we play a variant of the old water cooler standby "Fuck, Marry, Kill," known as "Start, Sit, Trade." Sit, of course, meaning sit on the bench in the bullpen and wait for the phone to ring. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]Obviously we can also acquire people using money. However, the key decision point in this regarding the talent on the roster is to figure out who can fill out the ML staff and the backup depth in Pawtucket, and who will bring more value being shipped out now before they reach their expiration date. The decision to move a young starter into the pen, or to sell on a prospect, is an exercise in conditional probability that's also heavily influenced by the talent in front of him. So let's try to create a thought process for making those decisions.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]In determining who to keep on a starting track, I think the Sox need to prioritize upside (ability to not just be an adequate back-end guy but a cost-controlled #2 or #3). In general, guys who project as serviceable, cheap back end types are guys you want to keep in that role until you really have to move them, but the Sox have a glut of mid-to-back-end starters. So we should be more likely than usual to either deal those low-ceiling SP types, or send them to the pen.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]So, here is a list of pitchers whom the Sox control into 2016, and who are either firmly starters, firmly relievers, or in limbo. Let's tentatively sort them into the categories of start, sit, trade, with the understanding that all of this can change based on market conditions or future performance.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]You can also put people into the category of "fire into the sun aboard the SS Breslow-Cook-Machi" if you think "trade" is too mild or euphemistic. I didn’t include guys like Diaz or Light who are not yet on the 40. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]Starters[/SIZE]
Buchholz
Porcello
E. Rodriguez
Kelly
Owens
Miley
Relievers:
Koji
Taz
Ross
Layne
Hembree
Varvaro
Aro
Ramirez
Cook
Machi
Limbo:
Wright
Workman
Barnes
Escobar
My notes[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]: Among the starters, I think Kelly’s recent trend and Dombrowski’s preference for hard throwers keeps him on the starting track. Miley I think is likely also in the rotation due to his durability and contract. Johnson could easily have been in limbo, plus he’s hurt. I suspect he stays a starter and provides depth. I also think the need for upside on the top of the rotation means that the Sox probably pick up Buchholz’ option if the medicals aren’t forbidding. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]Wright is a guy who can go into the pen if he projects as one of the best ML relievers, and otherwise should stay in the rotation in Pawtucket. He’s easy to move around and you don’t damage his value by shuffling him since he probably has very little. He is what he is.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]I think Barnes, Escobar and Workman should all be either sent to the pen or traded. Workman and Barnes probably have very little trade value so might as well get them used to relieving - Escobar maybe could be a throw-in this winter but certainly not a headliner. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]Based on the idea that the Sox will probably acquire a front-end SP, I’m going to say that they probably TRADE one of Edro, Owens, or Kelly (possibly as part of a package for said SP). Those guys are good enough and close enough that pushing all three of them to Pawtucket makes little sense - trade one while they have many years of control and potential. You probably also trade whomever from the AAA bullpen can help acquire a SP, if anyone, though there's not much there and you may just end up sitting on them and hoping you don't need them.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]So a rotation of Ace TBD, Buchholz, Porcello, Miley, Kelly, with whoever is left of Owens and Edro as depth or in the rotation if Clay is gone, and Johnson and most likely Wright first up in Pawtucket. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]A bullpen of Koji, Taz, Ross, Workman, Barnes, Layne, and whoever sticks from FA, trades or the depth mentioned here. Obviously guys like Barnes or Layne can ride the shuttle or lose out to Hembree or Ramirez or whatever. All fungible below the top four. Wright could also work his way into the ML pen if they need him. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]EDIT: Table fail. Fuck it just gonna make a list [/SIZE]