Buzzkill Pauley said:Even with no external moves made, the possibility exists that an ace emerges next season, with EdRo being by far the most likely one. That being said, I still think that, given the glut of quality starters on the market this offseason, DDski will probably give someone $100MM. I just hope he doesn't give anyone $150+MM.
"By far the most likely" is a bit of a stretch here. I don't disagree with the notion that an "ace" may emerge from SP the Sox have under control, but I'd be putting more money on the guy with a solid track record who only really pitched poorly for half a season (Porcello) or the guy who has pitched like an ace recently who needs to overcome injury woes (Buchholz).
I think it's a very different proposition to pencil in guys with 1000+ career IP for something near career norms and worrying about projecting out a 22-yo with a 4.16 SIERA in 121 career innings.
Also, FWIW, 3.55 was the 80th percentile for FIP among AL SP (80+ IP) in 2015 (Buchholz was 2nd behind Price). So saying things like "Porcello and Kelly need to substantially improve on their already good late season metrics" is a bit excessive. If both of them pitched like that all season, the Sox would have two low-end #1 AL starters, not counting Buchholz. I think the safer projection is to move the needle somewhere in the middle, unless you know they made very tangible improvements that explain the majority of the rate jumps.