ERod's last 4: 2.38 era, 22.2 ip, 4bb/27k. .926 WHIP. Hitters slashing .200/.236/.318 on a .255 BAbip.
Good to see.
Good to see.
He had a really bad run from 5/18-6/15 where he had a 9.11 ERA, but his FIP and xFIP were still good at 3.75 and 3.41. His BABIP was .450 over that stretch. Is that luck? I find it less likely if it's a month long and consistently that bad, but maybe.ERod's last 4: 2.38 era, 22.2 ip, 4bb/27k. .926 WHIP. Hitters slashing .200/.236/.318 on a .255 BAbip.
Good to see.
His FIP for the year is 3.52 (Which would be a career best) so I'm guessing there is some bad luck involved. I doubt it was all bad luck though. Is it possible he was tipping again? The only numbers that really stick out over year's past is the ISO against. That has been trending down lately and isn't that out of line with his career rate. This year it's .177. Career it's .155.He had a really bad run from 5/18-6/15 where he had a 9.11 ERA, but his FIP and xFIP were still good at 3.75 and 3.41. His BABIP was .450 over that stretch. Is that luck? I find it less likely if it's a month long and consistently that bad, but maybe.
Since then, he's been great as you've noted. And he had a 4.15 ERA and 3.55 FIP across his first 7 games. He started out decently well. If that bad stretch wasn't just bad luck and something was wrong, he looks to be past it. I'm optimistic about the rest of his season.
Was reading some non-baseball article earlier in the day about people who had recovered from Covid having a higher incidence of cognitive difficulties going forward. Really hope it's nothing like that for EdRo.Cora after today’s game in which Rodriguez was pulled because of migraines
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1418765682095841280
Hey.... uh.... don't know if it's been discussed anywhere other than a game thread, which I try to avoid after the game actually starts, but WTF is with ERod? He seemed to be rounding back into decent shape prior to his previous start and then had that "injury" that made him leave the game but Cora said he was fine. Then last night was just horrifying.ERod's last 4: 2.38 era, 22.2 ip, 4bb/27k. .926 WHIP. Hitters slashing .200/.236/.318 on a .255 BAbip.
Good to see.
He chooses to throw his fastball at 92-93 rather than 94-95, presumably for reasons of endurance. That means he’s threading a needle with location, and he’s often scared to throw inside to RH batters. He can’t limit himself to arm-side location, or he won’t have consistent success.Hey.... uh.... don't know if it's been discussed anywhere other than a game thread, which I try to avoid after the game actually starts, but WTF is with ERod? He seemed to be rounding back into decent shape prior to his previous start and then had that "injury" that made him leave the game but Cora said he was fine. Then last night was just horrifying.
Even earlier in the season when he was struggling it seemed due to some bad BABiP luck. Any commentary or insight into his outing last night and then what he could be moving forward? I really like him but have always been frustrated by his inability to become consistently the pitcher that he could be. Injuries happen but he has always seemed unfocused at times too.
Not a good general outlook for him going forward. I'm pretty bummed about where he's landed after his very promising 2019.... I still haven't read anything about him feeling weak or tired though... or about any other injury. He just doesn't seem like his energy is focused (but obviously IANAPsychologist).He chooses to throw his fastball at 92-93 rather than 94-95, presumably for reasons of endurance. That means he’s threading a needle with location, and he’s often scared to throw inside to RH batters. He can’t limit himself to arm-side location, or he won’t have consistent success.
Please note his age and 2018/2019 pre-covid seasons. This is not a "fringe" starter:He could still be struggling with post-Covid health issues, who knows. Health aside, Erod is who he is at this point. Someone whom the Sox hoped could be a #2 or #3 starter but in reality is a backend/fringe starter.
You sir must be watching a different E-Rod than I am. His 2018 and 19 seasons were much more #2/3 than fringe starter. Last year was lost due to Covid and there's no telling how much of this years struggles may be related to that. I'd still put Erod ahead of Pivetta/Richardson/Houck/Perez if I needed to win a game today.He could still be struggling with post-Covid health issues, who knows. Health aside, Erod is who he is at this point. Someone whom the Sox hoped could be a #2 or #3 starter but in reality is a backend/fringe starter.
While I would generally agree with you... I'll take Houck RIGHT NOW, over ERod, and possibly Pivetta or Perez. I'm just not sure if ERod is actually healthy. Or at best I'd have to be ready to Houck him out of there at the earliest sign of trouble and I wouldn't worry if I was panickingYou sir must be watching a different E-Rod than I am. His 2018 and 19 seasons were much more #2/3 than fringe starter. Last year was lost due to Covid and there's no telling how much of this years struggles may be related to that. I'd still put Erod ahead of Pivetta/Richardson/Houck/Perez if I needed to win a game today.
Houck's stuff is goddamn electric. Curious to me why his minor league stats are only decent and not dominant ... feel like there's gotta be some achilles heal we haven't seen yet ...I think Houck is excellent. Of course he could have a bad game in the playoffs, but he's nasty. If Sale is 90% of CHRIS SALE, then I'd feel pretty good going into a playoff series with Sale, Eovaldi, and Houck, with Pivetta or ERod or even Perez as the fourth guy.
My understanding is he's been working on stuff in the minors, like adding a viable third pitch to go with his fastball and slider. I get the impression that when he's on a big league mound, he's just cutting loose and going with his strengths more. Maybe that catches up with him at some point, but I also think being in a big league ballpark can flip a switch for some guys. He may thrive in the bigger spotlight.Houck's stuff is goddamn electric. Curious to me why his minor league stats are only decent and not dominant ... feel like there's gotta be some achilles heal we haven't seen yet ...
Starter |
Sox Record |
AGS |
Record with 4+ RS |
Eovaldi |
11-9 |
54.4 |
8-1 |
Rodriguez |
13-7 |
47.8 |
12-2 |
Richards |
11-9 |
44.8 |
10-1 |
Pivetta |
14-6 |
51.7 |
12-1 |
Perez |
12-9 |
47.2 |
12-2 |
Houck |
2-2 |
53.8 |
2-0 |
While I guess you are responding directly to my post in which I said I would not be surprised to find the sox in fourth place at the end of the season. I also still wouldn’t be surprised if they stayed in first place and advance their lead the other way too. Perhaps I should have said that in my post. All I was trying to say is that with the recent pitching there are I think more “what if” Situation with them then with their direct competitors. But at the same time that was the same situation going into the season and here they are in first place so to me they are still surprising.Amazing what a 2-game losing streak does to this board. Yep, ERod had a migraine and then a bad start. So naturally he's toast and will be shut down imminently or should be. We can't win if Richards or Perez starts. No hope. Why oh why didn't Bloom get Scherzer and maybe Freddie Freeman to play 1st?
Look, since the ASB when the Sox were 19 games above .500 and in 1st by 1.5 games and tied with the Astros for the best record in the AL they've gone a catastrophic 8-6 where all 14 games were against AL East competitors with >.500 records. Meanwhile the Rays have gone 9-5, the Yankees 8-5 and the Jays 7-6. Of the other decent teams in the AL only the Astros (9-4) have outperformed the Sox by as much as 1.5 games. The ChiSox have gone 7-8, Indians 5-8, A's 7-6, Angels 6-8 and M's 8-5. So the Sox have lost 1 game off its division lead and fallen 1 1/2 off the pace to get the top seed going into the playoffs.
As for that awful pitching staff here are the Red Sox records for games in which each pitcher starts as well as their average game score and the Sox' record in games where the offense scored 4 or more runs:
Starter Sox Record AGS Record with 4+ RS Eovaldi 11-9 54.4 8-1 Rodriguez 13-7 47.8 12-2 Richards 11-9 44.8 10-1 Pivetta 14-6 51.7 12-1 Perez 12-9 47.2 12-2 Houck 2-2 53.8 2-0
So I don't know about you guys but I think that a staff that has given the team a 56-7 record in games when the offense has scored 4 or more runs is good enough. The Sox offense has reached that threshold in 60% of the games its played and Bloom has added a bat that should increase that percentage going forward. We're also due to see a new starting pitcher that I've heard has a pretty nasty fastball-slider combo. I, for one, am optimistic.
The Sox's starters are 5th in the AL in IP/start (5.16 IP/gm). 4th place Yankees starters have averaged 1 more out every 5 games. Yes, the Astros (and A's) have been dominant in that category but their superiority to the Red Sox in that regard is still only 1 out per game (0.35 IP/gm). That doesn't smack off burning out the BP to me.But I think this is because the bullpen has been excellent and Cora has had a quick hook all year for the starters. That seems unsustainable, and a bit of bullpen fraying has already been evident. They need their starters to go deeper into games down the stretch run to keep the pen from being over taxed. ALSO, once in the post season, the competition improves, obviously, and the quality of starting pitching we've seen (sans Eovaldi) won't cut it ...Can't quickly be down 4 runs by the third ..Yes, the team will rely MORE on the pen in the post season ... but all the more reason to measure their use now.
Team | opp rec vs all others besides BOS | pct | HTH rec (Sox-opp) | rec when Sox 0-3 run scored | rec when Sox 4+ rs |
NYY | 51-28 | 0.646 | 10-3 | 0-3 | 10-0 |
HOU | 59-38 | 0.608 | 2-5 | 0-5 | 2-0 |
TBR | 59-38 | 0.608 | 4-3 | 0-3 | 4-0 |
CHW | 59-41 | 0.590 | 2-2 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
OAK | 56-43 | 0.566 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
TOR | 47-39 | 0.547 | 9-6 | 1-5 | 8-1 |
NYM | 54-46 | 0.540 | 2-0 | 2-0 | - |
SEA | 54-46 | 0.540 | 2-2 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
ATL | 50-50 | 0.500 | 3-1 | 0-1 | 3-0 |
these are good stats and enlightening ... thanks for this ... though we all have seen the starting pitching really fray the last two months, serious regression to mean and ERod obviously dealing with stuff ...The Sox's starters are 5th in the AL in IP/start (5.16 IP/gm). 4th place Yankees starters have averaged 1 more out every 5 games. Yes, the Astros (and A's) have been dominant in that category but their superiority to the Red Sox in that regard is still only 1 out per game (0.35 IP/gm). That doesn't smack off burning out the BP to me.
As for how they hold up against stronger competition the Sox are 32-2 when scoring 4+ runs against teams with .500 or better record (and 5-23 when scoring 3 runs or less).
Team opp rec vs all others besides BOS pct HTH rec (Sox-opp) rec when Sox 0-3 run scored rec when Sox 4+ rs NYY 51-28 0.646 10-3 0-3 10-0 HOU 59-38 0.608 2-5 0-5 2-0 TBR 59-38 0.608 4-3 0-3 4-0 CHW 59-41 0.590 2-2 0-2 2-0 OAK 56-43 0.566 3-3 2-2 1-1 TOR 47-39 0.547 9-6 1-5 8-1 NYM 54-46 0.540 2-0 2-0 - SEA 54-46 0.540 2-2 0-2 2-0 ATL 50-50 0.500 3-1 0-1 3-0
My point wasn't that the bullpen isn't a big part of the team's winning success - it obviously is. My point is that the current starters, flawed as they may be, haven't been costing Boston many games. They key seems to be whether the offense can score 4 or more runs. They've done so quite consistently (60% of the time) and when they do the Sox usually win.
Worth noting that rosters no longer expand significantly in September. They get two extra roster spots after September 1 rather than expanding to the full 40-man roster. Assuming everyone is generally healthy, and the race is tight, I don't expect too much experimentation with prospects like Seabold.Seabold was filthy last night. Do we see him in September?
Yes, thank you, I should have made that clear. Do we see him on the 28-man? Given where he’s at in his development, if he shows like this for a few more starts, I think he’ll be with the team.Worth noting that rosters no longer expand significantly in September. They get two extra roster spots after September 1 rather than expanding to the full 40-man roster. Assuming everyone is generally healthy, and the race is tight, I don't expect too much experimentation with prospects like Seabold.
He has 20 innings under his belt this season, 14 1/3 at AAA levelSeabold was filthy last night. Do we see him in September?
I could have used you in the Minor League thread last night!He has 20 innings under his belt this season, 14 1/3 at AAA level
His innings last night were about as good as EdRo's were.
I'm not sure anyone is prepared to project Connor Seabold in the major leagues based on that resume. His prior outing in AAA was 5 innings, 8 hits, and 4 ER.
I saw that this morning. You did Yeoman's work there.I could have used you in the Minor League thread last night!
I'm hopeful that Seabold is in our future. But he has to have a GREAT August to factor into this season.
Certainly reading the tea leaves a bit here, but it seems that Seabold is on Cora's mind as a potential option down the stretch.The health of those kids is very important to us. We've been healthy throughout the season. Those kids were hurt. So now, Tanner is healthy, Seabold is healthy, Brasier is trending in the right direction. That's always good. We're here for August and September. You guys see it. Everybody is playing good baseball. We're gonna need, at one point, probably all of these guys to make a difference up here. It's good to see him healthy and pitching the way he did...
It's possible, but if not Seabold, who? Isn't it Crawford?I'm going to disagree on Seabold. I think he'll be the next new face up and has the best (non-Sale) chance at helping the team down the stretch. He's their #6 prospect, and is already 25. Bloom clearly had him targeted last season and I don't think he's going to waste another season without seeing him up.
Crawford wasn't even in their top 60 before last month. He's had a nice mini-run but he only has 11 innings in Worcester. Guys like Ort and him have a better shot at slipping through now. Especially with Ort going to be 30. He's very likely not getting grabbed in a Rule 5. Not every guy having a nice season in AAA can be protected.
Cora doesn't just throw around quotes like that either.
I follow Crawford too and liked him before TJ when their system was worse and root for him now. I just think it's the unfortunate numbers game of them having a lot of interesting depth. I'm hoping he's off team's radars.It's possible, but if not Seabold, who? Isn't it Crawford?
And I'm sure most people disagree with me about Crawford.
Crawford has more innings in AAA than SeaboLDS doesI'm going to disagree on Seabold. I think he'll be the next new face up and has the best (non-Sale) chance at helping the team down the stretch. He's their #6 prospect, and is already 25. Bloom clearly had him targeted last season and I don't think he's going to waste another season without seeing him up.
Crawford's had a nice mini-run but he only has 11 innings in Worcester. Guys like Ort and him have a better shot at slipping through now. Especially with Ort going to be 30. He's very likely not getting grabbed in a Rule 5. Not every guy having a nice season in AAA can be protected.
Cora doesn't just throw around quotes like that either.
He does not if you care to look, but which guy do you think is the better pitcher?Crawford has more innings in AAA than SeaboLDS does
Fangraphs’ Jason Martinez (Roster Resource) agrees with you with his most recent Knocking Down the Door:And I'm sure most people disagree with me about Crawford.
Not if they're healthy they can't. Players on that IL accrue major league service time, which is why Mata is out for the year with Tommy John and is not on the 60-day IL. They don't want to start his service time clock until he's contributing to the big club.They can IL any marginal player to the 60 day DL before the end of the season to make room, right?
Seabold was listed as having 10.1 innings this AM. now he shows 14.1He does not if you care to look, but which guy do you think is the better pitcher?
Right, and one guy is an actual prospect who went 6. If they think he can help, I think he has an edge on the rest of the guys based on his stuff.Seabold was listed as having 10.1 innings this AM. now he shows 14.1
the point is the same. Both are extremely small sample sizes.
Remember they can only add two players. One will be Wong, probably. So, one pitcher ...Right, and one guy is an actual prospect who went 6. If they think he can help, I think he has an edge on the rest of the guys based on his stuff.
If it's Crawford, good for him. We'll see in a month.
"But I want a Wong and I want a Seabold and I want an Ort and I want a Casas!"Remember they can only add two players. One will be Wong, probably. So, one pitcher ...
You get what you get and you don't get upset."But I want a Wong and I want a Seabold and I want an Ort and I want a Casas!"
"I already got you a Duran, darling"
"But I want them! And I want a Yorke and a Groome, too!
Wouldn’t Schwarber’s history behind the plate allow for the Sox to settle on two September catchers?Remember they can only add two players. One will be Wong, probably. So, one pitcher ...