+/- stinks but Bergeron doesn't
- Thread starter Eddie Jurak
- Start date
So we're shooting him to the sun with or without Campbell? Can we do both at the the same time or do we have to prioritize? A negative plus/minus would lead me to believe we have to get rid of Bergy first.
No. But it could be an indication that he's slipping, or playing through a bad injury we don't know about, or that his role on the team has changed drastically as a result of the depth/injury issues and there is now too much on him.kenneycb said:
It's certainly not the best stat, but that's not the same as worthless. Starting in the Cup year, Bergeron's +/- are: +20, +36, +24 (in lockout half-year), +38 (first year with R.Smith usually on his line)... 0.LogansDad said:
What, if anything, it means is not clear, but there's probably a reason for it.
RBIs are not a great stat, either, but I doubt their are many hitters who are at or near the top of the league in RBIs for 4 seasons and then collapse to league average without it meaning something.
Eddie Jurak said:
What was the teams cumulative +/- those years?
What is it this year?
It's a stupid stat.
Tyler Seguin was top 5 in the league his second season here on the Bergeron line.
It's a stupid stat.
Eddie Jurak said:
I don't think RBI is a good comparison to +/- outside of both of them being overrated stats for a long time before rational people started thinking differently about them.
For one, baseball, outside of having 9 people playing the field, is largely a game of one on one battles, so it is a little bit easier to compare the rise and fall of batters and pitchers in a vaccuum. Even then, RBI's are so reliant on other people on the team getting on base, that even if a hitter's numbers DO drop, there is a chance that all it means is that his team all of a sudden sucks.
Hockey is a game in which every player relies on 5 other guys for every second that they are on the ice. Yeah, a guy like Bergreron is expected to pick up the slack a little bit when other players on his line make mistakes, because that is the type of player he is, but that doesn't mean that every goal he is on the ice for is his fault. Last night Bergeron had a -4, largely because David Krejci made a boneheaded pass, Svedberg let in two stupid goals, and a puck made a Tiger Woods at the 2008 Master's type of roll into the net. This is not indicative of Bergeron having a poor night.
The defensemen have largely sucked or been hurt this year. Tuukka has been mortal (and worse at times), and his backup is not as good as Chad Johnson. And Bergeron spends more time on the ice than all the forwards outside of Loui and Krejci. In effect, the entire team is having a poor season to this point.
To put things in perspective.... Adam McQuaid is a +2 this year. Any stat that Adam McQuaid is leading Patrice Bergeron in is a stupid stat. Ergo, +/- is a stupid stat.
Stats aren't stupid, they just are what they are. They can just be used in different ways, some of which are stupid.TheShynessClinic said:
Bergeron was at or near the top of the team in +/- for 4 years with a variety of linemates. Usually Marchand, but significant time with Recchi, Seguin, and Smith among others. Now he is towards the bottom of the team. Something is different.
+/- says nothing at all about why that is the case - and it would indeed be stupid to argue otherwise - but it's a pretty clear sign that something has changed.
Yeah, the team isn't as good as it is in the past. That's what changed. TSC covered that.Eddie Jurak said:
Edit: And Reilly Smith sucks right now. Something we haven't talked about much but he's pretty damn useless.
That, alone, does not explain why a consistent and established team leader in the +/- would be near the bottom of the team. That the team as a whole is weaker 5-on-5 doesn't, on its own, explain why Bergeron is not in his usual place among the team leaders - just not among the league leaders because he lacks the team support he has had in the past.kenneycb said:
Changes in usage could explain the change, but Bergeron's trademark has always been playing the tough minutes - he's consistently been right at the top of the league for various quality of competition stats. If he was already playing against the best opposing teams had to offer, how much room for even tougher competition is there?
Bergeron has been elite this year. 21.4 CorsiRel, 2nd in the league among regulars. 19.0 CorsiOn. Again, 2nd amongst NHL regulars. This while getting 46% OZone starts and facing the toughest competition night in night out.
Without Bergeron we'd be truly fucked.
Without Bergeron we'd be truly fucked.
How does that compare to prior years?cshea said:
Also - does have have a very low PDO? That might suggest a fluke.
His PDO is 965. He is being torpedo'd by an .883 on ice save percentage. That'll play into a poor +\-.
His CorsiRel last year was 20.4 and CorsiOn was 23.40. He's the same, elite, player he has always been.
His CorsiRel last year was 20.4 and CorsiOn was 23.40. He's the same, elite, player he has always been.
Well that's interesting. Is the low save % a fluke or something not picked up in the possession stats? Does every player have an big outlier like this every few years?cshea said:
Hey, cshea, where do you get all these advanced stats from? I would like to be able to back up my statements with more than "eye test" stuff.
NHL.com is adding them before the end of February, but for now I use behindthenet.ca and stats.hockeyanalysis.com for most of them. Hockeystats.ca is good for in-game numbers. They update in real-time and have the usage charts. Coo resource to use during games.LogansDad said:
He has also been forced to play with paille a bit. As I mentioned in the trade thread paille is a team worst-10 yet Campbell is a plus player so those goals against must be happening largely when they aren't together because god knows they don't score 5 on 5.kenneycb said:
It is kinda great and kinda stupid at the same time.TheShynessClinic said:
I love that Bobby Orr still holds the single season +/- minus record, with +124 for 1970-71. Plus 124 is a pretty incredible number and it helps illustrate why Orr was so great.
Of course the fourth best +/- season of all time is Dallas Smith, umm, also for 1970-71. That's rather meaningless and shows why +/- can be a stupid stat.
