After watching Semi and Grant in the 1H tonight I am so ready for the Harrison Barnes Era to begin in Boston.
Stop hoarding TP(E) - the what should the Celtics do with the TPE thread
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I'd also like a 3rd big who can actually figure out how an opposing NBA offense works beyond.... see ball, try to swat ball.
Though maybe Barnes would let us play Thompson and Theis together less and only the 2 of them most nights.
Setting aside individual games or even the team's overall record, its tough to look at the leap Brown is making and not wonder about the Cs ceiling this year. He is ungaurdable most nights this season. And they have an even better version across the floor from him.
Of course the Cs are active on the trade market - they see what is happening as plain as day.
Of course the Cs are active on the trade market - they see what is happening as plain as day.
The entire point of acquiring Barnes is that, health permitting, you'd never see Theis+TT again.
Our bigs are not the issue imo--they're 3 solid roleplayers, with different skill sets, who are being put in shitty positions on a nightly basis, partly out of necessity. The solution isn't to get yet another big; it's shoring up the wing.
Re Barnes' salary: what are people expecting to pay for an average big wing who hits 3s? $17-20M is table stakes for that. The only way to do better is to draft someone cheap who develops fast, or sign a guy who improves a lot.
I expect Barnes would outperform his advanced stats in Boston (not by a ton, but somewhat) just because the fit on both ends would be so good. I'm also higher than most on Tatum/Brown's ability to both become elite, which makes me want to lock in 2+ years of average wing play at an OK price.
Yes, of course that matters. Jaylen Brown gets those minutes because he's a better player than those other players. If he were to get injured, Semi would see more minutes and, barring some miracle of player development, those additional minutes would not make him a better player. Torrey Craig got a lot of minutes in Denver out of necessity, yet Torrey Craig is a below average player.
Harrison Barnes has been a starter for many years. He plays at a position of little depth in the league. To me, he's quite a bit better than 145th in the league, he would probably start on half of the teams in the NBA, the Celtics would be better with him on the team, and yes this conversation is inane because we're disagreeing on degrees of averageness.
It is way more than the half the teams. Obviously teams are trying to develop players, so in the strict sense, maybe he wouldn't start on some of the teams, but if they are trying to win, Harrison Barnes starts on every team in Easter Conference except for BRK and probably TOR (and if you squint, maybe PHI too, although I generally think that Green is cooked).
But he starts over DiVincenzo in MIL. Lamb/McDermott in IND. Washington in CHO. Reddish in ATL. Bullock in NYK. Harkless in MIA. Okoro in CLE. Williams in CHI. Bacon in ORL. Avdija in WAS. Hayes in DET.
Isn't Harrison Barnes essentially a slightly worse Gordon Hayward? Not that I'm opposed...the Cs definitely need better wing minutes, but it seems like a repeat of last year's problem where they couldn't put their 5 best players on the floor at the same time. I don't think anyone wants to see Jaylen or Barnes as a small-ball 5 outside of very specific matchups right? So is Barnes coming off the bench? Kemba?
This is an argument that has been made about not need wing depth, too, and in some places why they should chase a big. I just don't see it.
To me, the team's biggest problem is how many minutes are going to guys who either aren't good, or whose performance is highly variable game to game/matchup to matchup. All those 'negative' minutes add up. radsoxfan had a nice layout of LEBRON ratings that make this point. If that is indeed the biggest problem than simply upgrading those minutes to "ok" is a big gain even if the closing 5 doesn't change at all.
I guess the other question one can ask now is this: what would people's reaction be to using a chunk of TPE to get a vet PG, the assumption basically being that Kemba can't be counted on? It might be unnecessary if Kemba gets better, and we have to think he'll get more minutes to prove that since the upside is so high. But should they hedge?
Yes. He also has a far more reasonable contract though. And doesn't have the injury concerns. And is also two years younger. I would guess that if BOS had a choice in this offseason to sign Hayward to his 4/120 or trade a first to SAC for Barnes and his 3/60 deal they would choose the latter
So as we get closer to the deadline, I think it's interesting to make some tiers of players who might be available and are of interest. (As I made this I realized that the tiers aren't really in order after 4, 5-7 could go in any order depending on which player and the cost).
Tier 1: We're not gonna get him
Bradley Beal
Tier 2: Possible but very expensive:
Zach Lavine (I've come around on him, he's for real)
Nikola Vucevic
Tier 3: Interesting, but the money doesn't work
Kyle Lowry
Tier 4: Solid NBA starters
Harrison Barnes
Evan Fournier
Julius Randle
Aaron Gordon
Tier 5: Solid Role Players
Garrett Temple
Thad Young
Gary Trent Jr.
Larry Nance Jr.
Tier 6: Overpaid Vets
Al Horford
George Hill
Taurean Prince
Terrence Ross
Otto Porter
Tier 7: Flawed young guys who'll need new deals:
Lonzo Ball
Lauri Markanen
Mo Bamba
Denzel Valentine
Tier 8: These guys are probably washed (or bad)
Andre Drummond
Blake Griffin's corpse
JJ Redick
Tier 1: We're not gonna get him
Bradley Beal
Tier 2: Possible but very expensive:
Zach Lavine (I've come around on him, he's for real)
Nikola Vucevic
Tier 3: Interesting, but the money doesn't work
Kyle Lowry
Tier 4: Solid NBA starters
Harrison Barnes
Evan Fournier
Julius Randle
Aaron Gordon
Tier 5: Solid Role Players
Garrett Temple
Thad Young
Gary Trent Jr.
Larry Nance Jr.
Tier 6: Overpaid Vets
Al Horford
George Hill
Taurean Prince
Terrence Ross
Otto Porter
Tier 7: Flawed young guys who'll need new deals:
Lonzo Ball
Lauri Markanen
Mo Bamba
Denzel Valentine
Tier 8: These guys are probably washed (or bad)
Andre Drummond
Blake Griffin's corpse
JJ Redick
I don’t think the upgrade of Kemba/PP to “vet PG” would be as large as upgrading from the Romeo/Nesmith/Semi group to a guy like Barnes. I would rather go Barnes. Also don’t really know who would be available. George Hill maybe?
Unless the vet pg can play defense I would rather just roll with what we have but shift responsibilities, assuming they bring in a starter-quality wing. Start whoever but late-game lineup becomes Smart + 3 wings + Theis or Thompson. It's not like they run an offense late in games anyway so you might as well maximize the D.
What about Demar Derozan and Victor Oladipo? I think I’ve read more about their potential availability in a trade than Barnes. They also seem to fit in another tier: solid NBA starters on expiring contracts.
I forgot Oladipo. I think the Spurs will keep DeRozan as they are looking like a playoff team.
DeRozan is pretty unlikely since the Spurs are playing pretty well and he makes a lot of money that would require us to send significant salary back to get under the luxury tax limit. He also needs the ball in his hands so not sure he's a great fit with the Jay's. Oladipo appears to be a potential option. Houston is going nowhere this year so they may be inclined to deal him before the deadline. Like with Barnes, we would need to send salary back to fit under the luxury tax limit. He's also shot very poorly this year on high volume. Possible lower volume and playing off the Jay's would improve that. I wouldn't rule him out.
I'm sure recency bias is playing a role here, but DT's 3P shooting is certainly trending upwards. If that is going to be a legit part of his game, I think I would think differently about the C's re-signing him this offseason.
I do think the Celtics do need to clear out some of the logjam at Center, though. Either DT is gone after this season, or they trade RW or TT. I don't really want to see DT leave for nothing - and I don't know what kind of in-season trade value he might have. He's only valuable to a playoff bound team (I'd think), except that any acquiring team would have his Bird rights - which I guess has some value.
I do think the Celtics do need to clear out some of the logjam at Center, though. Either DT is gone after this season, or they trade RW or TT. I don't really want to see DT leave for nothing - and I don't know what kind of in-season trade value he might have. He's only valuable to a playoff bound team (I'd think), except that any acquiring team would have his Bird rights - which I guess has some value.
I wouldn't want to shoot the moon on Theis, but I wouldn't enjoy the downgrade to TL either. TLs defense is just such ass, and that's such a huge part of a big's job.
Crossing fingers that the market is soft and/or that the fit/chemistry here appeals to him.
I think a slightly worse and slightly cheaper Hayward is a fair assessment. Hayward had such a weird injury plagued few seasons in the middle of his expected prime it's a little harder to peg his value. Even though he is older he might still have some room to widen that gap.
Barnes is definitely less of a playmaker than Hayward, though his assists have also ticked up this year. His contract isn't great but it is at least declining the next 2 seasons and for a 4-6th best player on most teams, it's not too unreasonable.
With Barnes on the team, the crunch time 5 is probably Smart, Tatum, Brown, Barnes, and Theis with Kemba as the wildcard. I don't think getting Barnes means Jaylen or Barnes would play much small ball 5. Theis should typically get most of those minutes and I would expect Timelord or Thompson to play the rest of the minutes at the 5.
TL's defense is very frustrating, but I don't think on the whole it's actually bad. It's just a wider spectrum of very good plays and very bad plays, with a few that will make you cringe. The advanced stats I have seen have him as neutral to slightly above average.
I can see why Brad doesn't trust him sometimes and late in the game he is probably vulnerable to set plays, but taken in total I don't believe his defense is bad. Given his skillset it probably should be better, and that is admittedly frustrating to watch.
Great list, thanks. Barnes, Ball and Young look like the best fits to me. Lavine is great offensively but not so good defensively, and at the moment it seems we can't afford any steps back defensively.
So what kind of costs are we looking at for these various propositions?
As an admitted skeptic of all of the defensive stats, I thoroughly support the work. They're way less garbage than they were even a couple of years ago. And the work to evolve them takes time (as we saw with baseball) and effort.
I also realize that the eyeballs test is notoriously unreliable.
Does anyone keep a stat for uncontested opponent dunks/layups when a guy is on the floor?
I'll pushback on the Barnes euphoria. I think he's a nice player, scorer, would probably improve his defense in a better system. Clearly, he'd upgrade our wing depth
BUT I don't want to start funneling assets and cap space until I know what the heck Kemba is. It's a very uncomfortable situation but it's the Elephant in the Cellar.
I think Danny is forced to go cheap, because of Kemba's MAX contract and has to retain asset flexibility until we can move him.
Maybe kick the tires on Lonzo, Mykhailiuk, Ellington.
In the meantime, Brad can spread the floor offensively, with Theis/Grant. They are good catch & shoot 3pt shooters that like to set screens for JayCrew. I'd use Smart (PP now) along with them. AND bring Kemba along slowly and save his ball-dominant skills for the 2nd unit. Brad probably won't want to disrespect Kemba, so if KW has to start, pull him quickly.
The Celtics really need to improve their defense. Theis/Grant are decent/aware help defenders. No need to show me Grants' early-season SSS def stats, he has been getting better, figuring out his role. He was a plus defender last season & in the playoffs. Theis/Brown/Tatum/Grant/Smith would be a plus defensive unit.
Lonzo Ball would also help with the defense on the top which is lacking with Kemba floating around in the lane not guarding anyone.
BUT I don't want to start funneling assets and cap space until I know what the heck Kemba is. It's a very uncomfortable situation but it's the Elephant in the Cellar.
I think Danny is forced to go cheap, because of Kemba's MAX contract and has to retain asset flexibility until we can move him.
Maybe kick the tires on Lonzo, Mykhailiuk, Ellington.
In the meantime, Brad can spread the floor offensively, with Theis/Grant. They are good catch & shoot 3pt shooters that like to set screens for JayCrew. I'd use Smart (PP now) along with them. AND bring Kemba along slowly and save his ball-dominant skills for the 2nd unit. Brad probably won't want to disrespect Kemba, so if KW has to start, pull him quickly.
The Celtics really need to improve their defense. Theis/Grant are decent/aware help defenders. No need to show me Grants' early-season SSS def stats, he has been getting better, figuring out his role. He was a plus defender last season & in the playoffs. Theis/Brown/Tatum/Grant/Smith would be a plus defensive unit.
Lonzo Ball would also help with the defense on the top which is lacking with Kemba floating around in the lane not guarding anyone.
Does this make sense in today's NBA, especially the way the Celts play?
Stipulation 1: At any given moment, you need/want on the floor, a PG/ballhandler; 3 wings; and a big.
Stipulation 2: Once you get to the playoffs, you probably tighten your rotation to 8 guys: two PG/ballhandlers (starter and sub); 4 wings (3 starters and a sub) ; and two bigs (starter and sub).
Stipulation 3: The regular season is about figuring out that playoff rotation, but to get there, you will need to work thru 11-13 guys, which might include an extra PG, an extra big, and a couple extra wings.
The issue right now for the Celtics, is that it is tough to rank their best guys after the top three of Tatum, Brown, and Smart. But the next cluster seems to be (not in a ranked order): Walker, PP, Theis, TT, RW, GW, SO.
So top 3: Wing, Wing, Wing/PG
Next 7: PG, PG, Big, Big, Big, Big/Wing, Wing.
So they really need to convert their Big surplus into a Wing who is better than SO and GW.
Stipulation 1: At any given moment, you need/want on the floor, a PG/ballhandler; 3 wings; and a big.
Stipulation 2: Once you get to the playoffs, you probably tighten your rotation to 8 guys: two PG/ballhandlers (starter and sub); 4 wings (3 starters and a sub) ; and two bigs (starter and sub).
Stipulation 3: The regular season is about figuring out that playoff rotation, but to get there, you will need to work thru 11-13 guys, which might include an extra PG, an extra big, and a couple extra wings.
The issue right now for the Celtics, is that it is tough to rank their best guys after the top three of Tatum, Brown, and Smart. But the next cluster seems to be (not in a ranked order): Walker, PP, Theis, TT, RW, GW, SO.
So top 3: Wing, Wing, Wing/PG
Next 7: PG, PG, Big, Big, Big, Big/Wing, Wing.
So they really need to convert their Big surplus into a Wing who is better than SO and GW.
Hard to say, probably protected 1st for Barnes? NOP probably want a lot for Ball (who I personally wouldn't really want) Young... maybe a pair of 2nds? One of the young guys?
Personally I want LaVine. His defense this year is more like his pretty okay year last year than earlier in his career, and his offense is legit. His contract looks good at the moment too. Probably cost a lot to get, but I think he's worth it, he's a clear step or two above guys like Ball, Barnes etc.
Not that I am advocating for it, but I wouldn't place George Hill in the overpaid veteran tier. He is on a 2/20 contract right now.
They might not, but there has been speculation he could be available. He only has 1 year left after this and they aren't a playoff team. Plus a whole new basketball ops division just came in, so they might be looking to rebuild and LaVine is what they have that has value. They might be looking to get picks. If they can move off Thad Young for a piece and maybe dump Satoransky with Porter expiring they're going to have a ton of cap space. They might also see White and LaVine as duplicative and want the long-term build to involve either a bigger wing or a true point.
So with LaVine, it's likely as much that he can get them better rebuilding pieces and they don't have to make a decision on his next deal. Where for a team like Boston or another contender, 2 years of a top offensive talent is the draw and you worry about the next deal when the time comes because you chased the title twice on his current deal.
John Collins arguably fits in Tier 7, though I think he's going to cost more (in asset value) than Celts will pay.
I am hesitant about the idea of Lavine or Dipo. There is a real risk in brining in a guy who is has been the lead ball handler/shot taker on his teams and asking him to be a 3-4 option, especially given their impending free agency.
With the exception of a couple of misbegotten years in Dallas, Barnes has never been that guy. If SAC moves him (which I am skeptical about) the cost is probably two firsts.
Fournier, Temple and Ross would be acceptable lower cost targets on the wing. I advocated for Nance before the season, but with Theis's improved shooting adding a strech big seems like a lower priority.
I would avoid non-shooters like Thad Young, Aaron Gordon.
Is there any indication Gary Trent Jr. or Randle will be on the market?
For the Collin's supporters, if you get him two things need to be true 1) ownership will agree to max him because somebody is going to throw an offer sheet at him given all the cap space that's available and the much weaker FA class than many had anticipated and 2) that his improved defense and three point shooting is sustainable and not a contract year mirage.
With the exception of a couple of misbegotten years in Dallas, Barnes has never been that guy. If SAC moves him (which I am skeptical about) the cost is probably two firsts.
Fournier, Temple and Ross would be acceptable lower cost targets on the wing. I advocated for Nance before the season, but with Theis's improved shooting adding a strech big seems like a lower priority.
I would avoid non-shooters like Thad Young, Aaron Gordon.
Is there any indication Gary Trent Jr. or Randle will be on the market?
For the Collin's supporters, if you get him two things need to be true 1) ownership will agree to max him because somebody is going to throw an offer sheet at him given all the cap space that's available and the much weaker FA class than many had anticipated and 2) that his improved defense and three point shooting is sustainable and not a contract year mirage.
I like where you're going, but I worry about big depth if we do that. Our redundancy is more at BH and Wing, but they're bad.
IMO the obvious #4 on your "best guys after JT, JB, MS" is Theis. Adding to them, the remaining 4 rotation pieces seem to me to be Walker, Pritchard, Thompson, and Grant. That's my 8 anyway.
Walker Pritchard - BH
Tatum Brown - Wing
Smart Grant - Hybrid Wing
Theis Thompson - Big
Teague, Robert, Semi - matchup/foul trouble
Edwards, Green, Nesmith - garbage time
Imo, upgrading on Grant is a where I'd want to go. If you can push him to matchup tier, it's a big deal.
a fair "Barnes FOR" argument is that Harrison could be a Kemba hedge. Make Marcus a PG (with PP his caddy). If $$$/repeater doesn't matter (I think it does)
Agreed, no need for a BIG/Center. I actually think TT has looked better, love Theis' confidence with his 3pt shot and TL is getting better.
I'll buy all of that. I would offer that if I were Ainge, I would be willing to listen to any trades involving any of the bottom 6 on your list, and I would likely add GW, TT, and DT to that list as well, but only one thereof.
If I'm Ainge I listen to offers on anyone buy Tatum and Brown. The prices may vary, but nobody else on the roster has the combination of talent/age/price not to be available.
I think we have a pretty idea what Kemba is at this point. He won't always be as bad as he was last night because he'll have some good shooting nights but he's never turning into a good defensive player so we pretty much have a good idea that, on a go forward basis, he'll be a guy who is a complete defensive suck who'll ebb and flow on the offensive side. And I don't think his close-to-the-rim issues are going away either. At this point, Kemba's future production has to be heavily discounted. The only question is what that discount rate is.
At this point, I'm in favor of anyone who takes Kemba off the court for longer stretches, whether that be Barnes, Ball, Oladipo, etc.
Fair enough, but there's a pretty short list of guys -- beyond the not-worth-discussing, all-NBA types, -- who I would listen to for Marcus. I think these last few games have shown how vital Marcus is to the team defense.
Yeah, we've discussed Marcus before and I've noted that his value on that contract is tough to match, but he's the guy who helps get you the big name so you have to listen.
I'm a Collins supporter. BUT unless Danny is positive he can move Kemba, then its a NON-STARTER since we'll need that MAX slot for JC
JC is a career 76% FTs, he has improved every season. 80% last season. 82% this season.
JC is a career 37.7% 3pt shooter, he has improved each season. 40% last season. 41% this season
His outside shot appears to be consistently trending higher.
PLUS he has hit 42% of his corner 3s over his career (26% of his 3PA), that's where he would see a large majority of his 3s with the Celtics
Temple is my preference for a wing support player. He's the sort of hard nosed 3&D guy that Boston could use on the second unit.
Agreed.
I'd be leery of including Theis unless the wing upgrade is significant there's a big somehow coming back in the deal or another deal, but I suppose that Tacko as emergency big isn't the worst thing in the world. Not like we ever had much reason to play Sex Pants.
I think Theis only moves if a big is coming back.
So maybe you move Theis to get a big wing upgrade, knowing you're moving TT and/or young guys to add a shooting big.
As long as some credible defense comes back, I'm down. I love TL, and jury is out of course, but I'm not hanging my hat on either his grasp of defense or availability. Even those who love his upside and believe the def stats that are high on TL can't say with a straight face that they're not worried about the next hard fall that puts him out two weeks with back spasms.
IMO, DT and TT could be a credible pair of playoff bigs. So if one goes, another must come back. If you upgraded significantly from either, then maybe you can make do with RW/GW as your backup.
These are Garrett Temple's three point percentages from the past three seasons. Given the messiness of the defensive metrics, we don't need to debate his but they aren't good. Its pretty clear he isn't good at the "3" part of 3&D either, at least not anymore but he has never been anything but below average shooting behind the arc. FWIW, Temple seems to be one of those players who is known as a well respected as a lockerroom presence more than for his hooping skills. I don't think he moves the needle at all for the Celtics but perhaps I am missing something.
Edit: Let me add that I think some of the ideas in this thread aren't bold enough and I don't know that the C's can actually be bold enough. For example, Harrison Barnes does not put this team on equal footing with the Lakers or even a fully engaged Clipper or Jazz team imo. I think the C's need to go bigger if they want to compete with the 76ers, Bucks, Nets and the WC teams. Absent that, I am not sure they should be surrendering assets for the names mentioned given the costs.
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I keep telling people we need to trade for Giannis, not Barnes. Jokes aside, what are the "bold" options that are within reach? Beal is really the only one who qualifies and we don't have the assets to get him nor does he appear to even be on the market. I think a guy like Lonzo, Barnes, Oladipo is probably the boldest move that Ainge could possibly make given his financial and talent constraints. I guess trading Smart would also qualify but you haven't historically been a proponent of that so curious what "bold" means to you?
LaVine or Vucevic is probably the answer. Both are borderline all-stars and probably the best players who have any real likelihood of changing teams before the deadline.
What’s Orlando’s incentive to trade Vucevic? He is the backbone of their offense and has a declining contract for 2 more years. I would gladly take him but feel like we wouldn’t come close to having the assets to be the top bidder if he were made available.
It's been rumored. My guess would be... that team isn't all that good, their young guys are all hurt, and he'd bring back real assets.
I do think the Celtics would struggle to win the bidding war (it would take multiple 1sts), but form the ORL perspective I think the thought would be... this is how you get all those picks you need to make a real rebuild work, and you tank out this year by moving him, and at 30 he's probably going to be in decline by the time your window opens, so instead break it down, and trade him now when he'll be the best player on the market and you can leverage multiple bidders in a very flat playoff race this year.
Because ORL has been terrible for so many years that they need to make some bold move in hopes of not continuing to suck?
Being a center does make the market a little narrower. Before even getting into who has the pieces to make it happen, a bunch of the top-half teams would likely have minimal need/interest.