Survivor: Week 2

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Well the 5-3-1 team is 2-3-1 after a hot start and really hasn't looked the same since the Pats shellacked them. NO is historically very good at home and should be able to throw on the Cincy D. The Cincy O also looks completely out of whack.

That said, things change on a dime EVERY week in this league.

Edit: also, 4 of the 5 Saints losses are by 3 points or less. They are a handful of plays away from being a 6 win or better team.
Also, other than the Ravens (which is historically a bad matchup for Flacco), he Bengals haven't beaten anyone other than TN, ATL, and JAC. The Saints killed GB and their one-point loss to DET is looking better and better.

Ingram should have a big day too as the Bengals are ranked 30th vs. the run.
 

amarshal2

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Deathofthebambino said:
 
I think literally the only other games that seem to be an option for me is Miami/Buffalo or Houston/Cleveland, but man, those are really hard to call, IMO.  The Buffalo defensive line is playing as well as anyone, and I could see them forcing Tannehill into some bad throws and pulling that one out.  Houston/Cleveland is a game between two of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL.  They are basically both completely schizophrenic.  I have no idea which version of either team would show up.  If I was forced to pick one, it would be Cleveland, especially if it got announced that Aryan Foster wasn't playing, but he says he is, and that alone gives Houston a chance. 
 

Come on folks.  Someone talk me into something.  I'm actually more concerned about Pitt than I am Washington for some reason.  I know Pitt is coming off a big loss, and they have to win this one to stay in a good spot for the playoff hunt, but I don't know.  Monday night football, on the road, always a dicey proposition. 
 
This week is impossible, you're fucked.

Now that I've built up your confidence I think maybe you've over looked cleveland. It's not that they're as good as their record, it's that it's Mallett's first career start. Every time he's had some pressure he's looked really uncomfortable and played poorly. I bet he straightens himself out by the second half but that's a pretty good edge. Bet against the guy in his first career start playing with a 4-5 team.

But seriously, normally I wouldn't touch that game but you're desperate.

Someone said the AFC north is the toughest division in football? I disagree. They're matched up against the AFC south and the NFC south, the two worst divisions in football bar none. AFC north is middle of the pack in my opinion. I think the Dolphins would win that division if they were in it this year. Dolphins are better than Cleveland...who has beat nobody of significance outside their division...as they've played nobody of significance.

Oh yeah, I was talking up Cleveland. Whoops.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I just can't go Cleveland.  Can't do it.  I actually feel the exact opposite of Mallett.  I've talked about it here many times, but time and time again, new QB's get the starting job (either a rookie or a guy that started previously who gets the job again after a long layoff) and lightning strikes for a week or three.  Then the league catches up to them, and they fall back to their true talent level.  Shit, we're seeing that play out right now with Sanchez, and Orton to some extent.  We saw it with Kirk Cousins for the first couple of weeks, Bridgewater in his first start, arguably Hoyer (we don't know yet if it was the type of fluky thing I'm talking about or if he's the real deal), Drew Stanton got Arizona a couple of wins, etc.  Rookie QB's scare the shit out of me. 
 
On top of that, like I said earlier, he's got a damn, damn good set of weapons around him, starting with the guy he can just hand it to, in Aryan Foster, who is easily a top 5 RB in the NFL this year, as well as Hopkins and Johnson on the wings.  Flip it around, and you have a guy in JJ Watt that can wreak havoc on the Browns offense, and if Clowney comes back this week and is possessed to show what he can do, look out.
 
Nope, Cleveland is a non-starter for me.
 
You're right.  I'm truly fucked, but I gotta have hope.  I've been sitting around thinking about it all day, and the more I do, the more I'm getting comfortable with the Pittsburgh choice.   I think the odds are very good that last week was a complete fluke.  Oh wait, did I just say something about guys getting the starting job back and playing well for a few weeks, Michael Vick?  Anyway, I think they are definitely closer to the team that waxed Baltimore and Indy in back to back weeks than what they showed last week, and this is a huge, must win for them going into a tough part of their schedule  Meanwhile, the Titans are just floundering.  The only team they've beaten since that fluke against Kansas City in week one is Jacksonville.  I think Pittsburgh comes out and takes care of business.
 
So, now I'm shaky on Washington.  Vegas has them giving 7.5 points to Tampa, and that alone, gives me a little comfort.  They've been in basically every game this year, except the debacle against the Giants, but I'm taking them much more on the strength (or lack thereof) of the Bucs.  The Bucs have one win this year (against fucking Pittsburgh, UGGH, I need to go to bed), and they haven't looked good at all recently, home or away.  I would still argue that their first loss to Atlanta earlier in the year was one of the worst games ever played by an NFL team.  Their defense is shredded with injuries, they have no running game, and aside from their receivers, I'm not sure there are more than a handful of guys on their team that would start for anyone else. 
 
I could do this all night, but really, I'm just doing it to make myself feel better.  I'm really surprised nobody has any thoughts on that Niners/Giants game.  I would have figured that's a game that would tempt some people, especially the folks thinking about New Orleans this week.  Didn't the Niners just beat them at home last week?  You all don't think they can go and beat the Giants in New York after that?  I don't know how you can be interested in the Saints at home against the Bengals moreso than the team that beat them going against the 3-6 Giants who have looked worse and worse during their current four game losing streak.  Ever since the Rashad Jennings injury, they've been completely unable to run, and while Beckham has been a shining light for them recently, their defense just can't stop the run.  Marshawn Lynch just made them his bitches last week, and I think Gore, Kaepernick and Hyde can do the same this week. 
 
Fuck, now I'm talking myself into San Fran.  Nope, not doing this.  Good night.
 

crystalline

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I've watched a handful of games of both SF and the Giants this year.  The Giants have looked terrible at times, and SF has looked ok, but Kaepernick is a real Jekyll and Hyde case.  The moneyline is NYG +175.
 
I'd stay away from Saints/Bengals: my sense is that CIN can win any given game or get absolutely blown out.  I haven't seen NO play much though.
 
I'm a terrible gambler though.
 

tims4wins

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I have more faith in the Steelers, but they have burned me before. Tampa has been feisty - they have lost games by 6, 2, 6 (OT), 6 (OT), and 5.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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amarshal2 said:
Someone said the AFC north is the toughest division in football? I disagree. They're matched up against the AFC south and the NFC south, the two worst divisions in football bar none. AFC north is middle of the pack in my opinion. I think the Dolphins would win that division if they were in it this year. Dolphins are better than Cleveland...who has beat nobody of significance outside their division...as they've played nobody of significance.
 
 
That was me; I did include "arguably"; and I'm not saying AFC North is the best division but there aren't any bunnies there either.

CLE beat NO, though it was early and at home.
 

mauf

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Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt said:
So…PITT at Ten or WASHINGTON at home vs. Tampa.  Still back and forth.  Thoughts?
WAS is the heavier favorite. What's your rationale for not playing the odds?

I'm not saying you should slavishly follow the odds, but you shouldn't make a contrarian pick based on sentiments like "Washington isn't very good," or "RG3 is inconsistent and can't be trusted, or "PIttsburgh won't look past the Titans after losing to the Jets," because those sentiments are baked into the odds.

I would take WAS, but as a jaded Steelers' fan, I'm not the best source for advice.
 

mauf

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Looks like we weren't the only ones who thought the MIA-BUF line looked wrong -- the Bills are down to +200.
 
Apr 7, 2006
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maufman said:
WAS is the heavier favorite. What's your rationale for not playing the odds?
I'm not saying you should slavishly follow the odds, but you shouldn't make a contrarian pick based on sentiments like "Washington isn't very good," or "RG3 is inconsistent and can't be trusted, or "PIttsburgh won't look past the Titans after losing to the Jets," because those sentiments are baked into the odds.
I would take WAS, but as a jaded Steelers' fan, I'm not the best source for advice.
I very well may play the odds, cross my fingers and hope not to die... I do think Pitt is really likely to trounce Tennessee, and I think they're a better team than Washington. But you're right, Washington is playing at home, coming off a BYE, and it's Tampa bay. No matter how close their terrible record is to being merely awful.

Thanks for the insights - from all of you. On the off chance I win, I promise to share none of my earnings with you. ;)
 

dcmissle

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It is truly awful choice.  Remember that Tampa's one win came at Pittsburgh, and the Redskins are capable of gagging anything.  But going with road teams is asking for trouble and always has been in this contest.
 
If it helps, I was in attendance at Titans/Ravens last Sunday.  Mettenberger -- who I suspect may have a very nice career -- drove the Titans the length of the field twice to open the game, but then had little to show for it.  Adjustments were made, he couldn't adjust, and the Titans didn't pose a threat the rest of the game.
 
I would assume that Pittsburgh will bounce back offensively, and it's hard to see Tenn putting up a lot of points if Pittsburgh take care of the ball.  And if the Steelers want to remain in the playoff hunt, they need this game.
 
So if forced, I would go with Pitts.  They have motivation, and there is just no end to Washington's dysfunction.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Unbelievable situation shaping up in my pool.  Remember, we had to pick two winners this week.  Right now, I think if the results hold up and Cleveland, Washington, Denver, New Orleans, etc. all lose, we might be crowing a champion this week, after going into the week with 160 people still alive.  It's incredible.  I'm trying to go through all of the picks, and I think one guy had Miami and Pitt (I had Miami in there up until kickoff and switched my pick to Washington and Pitt, and I'm ready to kill myself for it right now), and has a very good chance of winning it all.  Over $270,000 on the line.   Fuck the Redskins.  Seriously, Fuck them so fucking hard.  At least if I switched to Miami, or even San Francisco, who I was teetering about too, I'd still have a chance.
 
My buddy saved Denver all year long, and used them this week, as did about 30 other people in the pool.  A bunch of folks have San Diego, but most of them are paired up with Washington or New Orleans or someone else that's currently losing. 
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Deathofthebambino said:
At least 148 out of 160 eliminated as of right now.  Unbelievable.
just out of curiosity, what would happen if PIT loses?

Also, would this be the earliest anyone has ever won your particular pool?
 
Apr 7, 2006
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Thanks to all those who advised. I switched at the last second from Washington (phew...) to Denver (FUCK!!!). It was a fun ride. Sure wish I'd picked Pitt. That said...

For actual significance, thrilled that the Broncos bit it. Hoping Pats can take advantage and come up with a big win tonight. Tall order, on the road and all, but there's a massive opportunity, seeding-wise, for Brady, et al, to seize.
 

Deathofthebambino

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WBCD, I think if everyone lost this week, then they would just roll forward next week with all of the people that took one loss this week.  However, if Pitt lost tomorrow, it would give me 2 losses this week (I lost with Washington) so I imagine I'd be knocked out anyway.  As of right now, 3 people have officially survived, and there are actually 21 that are still undecided (people with Pitt, GB), so chances are there will be a week next week.  However, with 270k on the line, I would be surprised if there isn't some sort of agreement among the survivors to chop some of the prize money at some point.
 
Yes, this would be the earliest the pool ever wrapped up.  To only have 160 of the 2,717 people alive going into the first week where we start picking two teams was kind of amazing.  However, these two team weeks tend to end the pool very quickly.  This week was just brutal, but I'm so pissed I didn't switch my Washington pick to Miami or San Fran. 
 

Deathofthebambino

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After GB, there are now 6 survivors, and 18 people who won their first game, and now have Pitt as their second one.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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WBCD, I think if everyone lost this week, then they would just roll forward next week with all of the people that took one loss this week.  However, if Pitt lost tomorrow, it would give me 2 losses this week (I lost with Washington) so I imagine I'd be knocked out anyway.  As of right now, 3 people have officially survived, and there are actually 21 that are still undecided (people with Pitt, GB), so chances are there will be a week next week.  However, with 270k on the line, I would be surprised if there isn't some sort of agreement among the survivors to chop some of the prize money at some point.
 
Yes, this would be the earliest the pool ever wrapped up.  To only have 160 of the 2,717 people alive going into the first week where we start picking two teams was kind of amazing.  However, these two team weeks tend to end the pool very quickly.  This week was just brutal, but I'm so pissed I didn't switch my Washington pick to Miami or San Fran.
Thanks for the info.

You went further than the collective wisdom of SOSH. I guess there is something to not making these types of decisions on a collective basis.
 

mauf

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Is anyone still alive in their pool?
 

chmielea

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I have Pitt tomorrow, down to 19 left now (out of 1100).  This was by far the toughest week to choose so far, though week 13 is looking nasty too.
 
here's my sequence so far:
 
 
Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12
New York Jets Denver New Orleans Indianapolis Green Bay San Diego New England Kansas City Seattle Baltimore Pittsburgh Philadelphia?
 
 
 
 
 
really appreciate the discussion so far, please keep it up!
 

chmielea

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Going with Philly vs Tenn. 2nd biggest favorite, and I've already used Indy. Pretty easy choice, they might be viable again in 4 weeks, but not before that.

Next week is going to be the one that I struggle with.
 

mauf

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Indy figures to be the safest pick next week too (vs WAS), so it's worth considering. Who would you take next week if you pick Indy this week?

There are a few non-Indy picks I like better than KC. Have you used the 49ers yet?
 

mauf

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Better late than never: here are the money lines. Much better options this week than last.

Colts (JAX +800)
Eagles (TEN +600)
Packers (MIN +400)
49ers (WAS +400)
Chiefs (OAK +300)
Broncos (MIA +290)
Patriots (DET +260)
Seahawks (ARI +240)
Bears (TB +200)

I wouldn't touch those last three, by the way.
 

mauf

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I hope everyone stayed away from KC last night.
 

dynomite

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Anyone else still going? We're down to 2 in my league (thanks OAK!). At this point, I'm stumped between:

- STL (vs. OAK)
- DET (vs. CHI)
- PIT (vs. NO)
- MIA (@ NYJ)

I don't hate any of those choices, actually. Oddly, I might feel the most confident about STL...? But DET needs to win and Megatron is getting healthier, presumably?
 

chmielea

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yep, everyone survived in mine, still 19 left.

Lots of average to mediocre options for me this week:

Detroit (Chi +260) - don't like thursday games and possibility of good cutler. want to save for week 14 or 15
Hou (Ten+ +225) - who's the qb? i've picked against the titans the last 3 weeks though with success
STL (Oak +270) - shaun hill, bleh
NYG (@JAX +125) - surprised this is so close, but hate road games
Cin (@TB +175) - a couple weeks ago i pencilled this in as my choice for wk 13, but now i'm not sure. road game
Mia (@NJY +210) - maybe?

-- already picked but maybe good for someone else...

Indy (Was +425) - definitely the choice if possible
Pitt (NO +160) - too close for me. don't think NO is that bad of a team
Bal (SD +210) - two pretty good teams. I prefer when one team is truly terrible
 

Deathofthebambino

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I'm still alive in my "three strikes and your out" pool, in which you can take anyone.   I've only got one loss.  I'm probably just going to go Indy this week, but it's kind of at that point where you want to start thinking about going against the grain.  I'm just not seeing anything I would consider a lock over Indy though.  Houston and Mallet are still unproven, but I probably like them the most out of everyone, just because of how good their running game is, their defensive line, and most importantly, the Titans look bad, bad, bad.
 
St. Louis is an option, but I feel like their offense could lose on any given Sunday, and while Oakland likely will have lots of trouble scoring against the Rams defense, I think Oakland's defense can likewise shut down the Rams offense and keep it a one score game where it comes down to a final possession.  That could be one of those rare 10-7 or 14-10 type of games and could go either way if that happens.
 
The only other game I would probably think about is Detroit, but I like them even less than I like St. Louis.  Chicago's defense is terrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrible, but Detroit's offense is pretty damn awful too, so I could see the Bears holding them to 24 points or so.  Question is will the Bears offense put up points on the Detroit defense.  As the Pats just showed, it can be done, and Forte is playing as well as any RB in the league, and Cutler can just throw up a few jump balls to Marshall and Jeffery, and all of a sudden, the Bears have more than 24 points.  Detroit should win the game easily, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if it went the other way.  Also, Thursday.
 

chmielea

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Deathofthebambino said:
Houston and Mallet are still unproven, but I probably like them the most out of everyone, just because of how good their running game is, their defensive line, and most importantly, the Titans look bad, bad, bad.
just fyi, Mallet is done for the year with a torn pectoral, so it's back to Fitzpatrick. probably doesn't change your decision too much, but worth considering.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Holy shit, how did I miss that.  I legitimately feel bad for Mallett.  I hate it when a guy finally gets a shot, plays fairly well, and like Hoyer did last year, gets hurt quickly thereafter.  I hope he comes back healthy next year and has a chance to win the starting job back in camp.  You're right though, doesn't really change my thoughts much, although I'd probably  move Houston behind St. Louis as an option, but still ahead of Detroit.  Either way, still don't think I can get away from Indy.  Too many question marks everywhere else.
 

crystalline

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Every Chicago game I have seen this year - about half- they have stunk on both sides of the ball. I think they are still overrated. And the Lions have a decent offense and great defense. Both Stafford and Cutler are variance-increasing X-factors but that's true of most QBs not named Manning, Brady, and Rodgers with possible mention of Luck and Wilson. If that were not a Thursday night game I'd vote Detroit.
But I think you're right to pick Indy
I suppose there's a chance that McCoy is some kind of messiah but I wouldn't bet on it.
 

mauf

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This week's money lines:

Colts (WAS +425)
Rams (OAK +270)
Lions (CHI +260)
Texans (TEN +225)
Dolphins (NYJ +215)
Ravens (SD +210)

Those odds seem about right to me -- Indy the biggest favorite by a considerable margin, and the Rams and Lions slightly safer than the other options.

The Rams are, by far, the most popular pick this week (P% 32.3, per survivorgrid.com), but with so few players remaining, I don't think that's a consideration.

(Edit: Somehow missed chimelea's post; sorry for the redundancy.)
 

dynomite

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Am I crazy for starting to lean toward Miami (@ NYJ)?
 
The advanced ranking systems like Miami more than Detroit, and the Bears have won two straight (albeit against bad teams).  Obviously I hate to pick a road team, but I just don't think the Jets match up well with the Dolphins -- they can't score or defend the pass.  
 
I'm still contemplating St. Louis and Detroit, but don't love either of those games.
 

mauf

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The only "crazy" pick is not taking Indy if they're available to you.
 

dynomite

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maufman said:
The only "crazy" pick is not taking Indy if they're available to you.
 
Sadly I used them last week.  I'm starting to think you were right to advise me to take SF last week and save IND for this week (although the SF/WAS game was pretty close).
 
Taking a Miami as a 4-point road favorite doesn't thrill me, and the Jets have been much better at home.  Still, I just think the Dolphins are a far superior team to the Jets and feel very confident they're winning.  Hmm.
 

chmielea

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ended up taking STL, as I said, Indy not an option. both MIA and DET were possibilities, but i didn't feel any better about their matchups, and they both had future use to me: home games against Minn for both (Det wk 15, Mia wk 16.)

easily my least confident pick of the season, but if they pull it out i feel pretty good about my possibilities for the last 4 weeks: San Francisco (@oak), Detroit, Miami, Houston (home vs Jax).

Good luck everyone!
 

mauf

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The more I think about it, the more I like the Rams. They've beaten the Seahawks and Broncos in that dome; you have to trust them to handle the Raiders.
 

mauf

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The money lines have shifted -- Miami, Houston, and St. Louis are now handicapped as equally safe (all three underdogs are +250).
 

dynomite

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Good lord.  Maufman, I don't know why I don't listen to you, but somehow I survived with my MIA pick, regretting that I didn't take STL the entire time.
 
I was on the edge of my seat for that last minute Geno Smith drive, which is the only time anyone has ever said that.
 

mauf

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This week's money lines:

Green Bay (ATL +550)
Denver (BUF +450)
Detroit (TB +400)
New Orleans (CAR +400)
San Francisco (OAK +330)
Minnesota (NYJ +220)
Houston (JAX +200)

I'm guessing most of you have used the five heavy favorites and are weighing Minnesota against Houston.
 

dynomite

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I actually haven't used DET or SF, somehow.  Thoughts between those two?  
 
My inclination is SF, even on the road: biggest difference in ELO ratings (#5 vs. #31 in the Week 13 update), and the Raiders look just putrid on both sides of the ball.  
 

mauf

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dynomite said:
I actually haven't used DET or SF, somehow.  Thoughts between those two?  
 
My inclination is SF, even on the road: biggest difference in ELO ratings (#5 vs. #31 in the Week 13 update), and the Raiders look just putrid on both sides of the ball.  
Depends on how many players are left in your pool and what your options are for next week.

I think the line is right -- DET is safer than SF this week -- but depending on who you've used, DET over MIN next week might be better than your alternatives.
 

chmielea

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dynomite said:
I actually haven't used DET or SF, somehow.  Thoughts between those two?  
 
My inclination is SF, even on the road: biggest difference in ELO ratings (#5 vs. #31 in the Week 13 update), and the Raiders look just putrid on both sides of the ball.
same here, and if I don't save Det for next week, my best options are Carolina or NYG that week... so yeah, i'm taking SF this week and feeling pretty confident about it.

we only lost 1 last week, down to 18 now.
 

mauf

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If you're still in, there are lots of options this week. 

Baltimore (JAX +700)
Kansas City (OAK +450)
Seattle (SF +350)
Detroit (MIN +320)
New England (MIA +320)
Indianapolis (HOU +250)
NY Giants (WAS +240)
Carolina (TB +210)
Green Bay (BUF +200)

A lot of those underdog odds seem too long to me, but you should be able to find a reasonably comfortable pick.

BAL and KC are getting the heaviest play according to Survivorgrid, but I'm wondering if those numbers are skewed by pools that allow you to use a team more than once. (Such pools aren't typical, but this late in the season, I'm sure they account for an outsized share of people who are still playing.)

I don't know if the CAR-TB line reflects Cam Newton's status, but I can't imagine that many people have used the Giants, and they looked like a better pick than Carolina even before Newton's accident. 
 

Deathofthebambino

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I'm still alive in my three strikes (use teams multiple times pool), with one loss on the season.  About 80 out of 650 of us in that bracket (only 4 in the no loss bracket).  Think I'm just going with Baltimore this week, although I'm not as much of a fan of them as I should be.  The Jags have been strangely dangerous recently. But, Oakland has obviously been even more dangerous than that.  Once you get passed those two matchups, I think it would be crazy for me to go anywhere else when I can choose anyone, so Baltimore it is.