I would not be so quick to presume.If Memphis wants to make this year's (currently conditional) pick unprotected, in order to secure themselves the ability to trade future firsts because theirs are presently encumbered, I imagine Ainge would be happy to make a change to the terms.
Yeah, you'd probably have to have some consideration go one direction in the form of a player.I thought this talk began in a joking manner. I can’t imagine the CBA allows teams to go back and amend an already completed trade even if both sides agreed to do so.
It would just be structured as another trade. Memphis owns the right to its 2019 1st if it falls from 1 to 8; it can trade the right to that pick to any team including Boston.I thought this talk began in a joking manner. I can’t imagine the CBA allows teams to go back and amend an already completed trade even if both sides agreed to do so.
I suppose the league would approve this.....so long as all other cap restrictions are met. I can’t imagine Ainge not wanting to hold that picks upside down the road however as this was the same upside he wanted at the time of the trade.It would just be structured as another trade. Memphis owns the right to its 2019 1st if it falls from 1 to 8; it can trade the right to that pick to any team including Boston.
Agreed. And early indications are that front offices aren't crazy about the 2019 draft. Maybe that changes in the coming weeks but I think Ainge would like to move the pick for that reason alone since he has no chance at the top guys with the Memphis pick. Better to move the pick to 2020/2021 when he has a chance to go higher and the draft pool may be considered better.Any discussion of current vs future value of the pick has to account for its status as a trade piece. Ainge said some years ago that he likes picks because they always have trade value, whereas a drafted player starts losing value immediately. You have to pay them. The clock is started on having to pay them a lot more (this part is really bad for a rebuilding team). The player may not develop. A trading partner may not like the player or need help at that position. And so on. The one downside is that GMs typically feel that they need instant gratification because they know their job depends on nailing the trade (Of course, if you're forced into trading a Garnett/Davis level player, your time is probably coming no matter what).
With all that in mind, I have no doubt that Ainge is more interested in rolling this over and maintaining the ability to provide a trading partner with the Holy Trinity of high value trade pieces if needed:
Not saying they will or would have to ship all of the above out, but just for argument's sake that is what I am looking for as an opposing GM, especially with a 2019 draft that is looking just okay.
- Upside now: A lotto pick in 2019
- Upside later: A lotto pick in 2020/21
- A young but known quantity: Brown/Tatum
Agree on the trade value front. That MEM pick is a major asset if it rolls over to 2020/2021. Pretty funny that this pick is likely to provide more value than the SAC pick that we lusted over for so long. The SAC pick looks to have about a 5-10% chance of landing in the top 4. Not great odds but certainly possible.I think the primary value in a rollover is the trade value, this year the Grizzlies pick would be guaranteed to go in the roleplayer section of the draft (although I think there are going to be a few decent starters that go in the 9-20 range). But obviously the rolled-over pick has the promise of being unprotected in '21, making it a much easier sell to the fans of whatever team gets it.
Boston's best case, of course, is that they defy the odds and win a pick in the 2-4 range with the Kings, as that basically makes the Unibrower a Celtic.
I am putting my faith in the power of positive drinking that we beat the odds, because even Memphis #1, Brown, and Reddish/Morant is a package the Lakers can't hope to top.Agree on the trade value front. That MEM pick is a major asset if it rolls over to 2020/2021. Pretty funny that this pick is likely to provide more value than the SAC pick that we lusted over for so long. The SAC pick looks to have about a 5-10% chance of landing in the top 4. Not great odds but certainly possible.
There is also the added value of making the high lottery selection while protecting yourself from the repeater tax as you then can replace one of the veterans who are on a second contract. Rookie scale at $5-6m over paying say Jaylen $20m for majority of or similar production while flipping the latter for pick(s) down the road to potentially repeat the process as Ainge did with Brooklyn, the Clippers, and Memphis. That’s the optimal Dynasty Domino right there while balancing your Chief/Indian ratio.I think the primary value in a rollover is the trade value, this year the Grizzlies pick would be guaranteed to go in the roleplayer section of the draft (although I think there are going to be a few decent starters that go in the 9-20 range). But obviously the rolled-over pick has the promise of being unprotected in '21, making it a much easier sell to the fans of whatever team gets it.
Boston's best case, of course, is that they defy the odds and win a pick in the 2-4 range with the Kings, as that basically makes the Unibrower a Celtic.
This is something I'd love to discuss. Danny MUST be starting to get antsy about the end of the pick bonanza. He drew it out a bit longer with the Tatum trade, but now it's time to load up again.There is also the added value of making the high lottery selection while protecting yourself from the repeater tax as you then can replace one of the veterans who are on a second contract. Rookie scale at $5-6m over paying say Jaylen $20m for majority of or similar production while flipping the latter for pick(s) down the road to potentially repeat the process as Ainge did with Brooklyn, the Clippers, and Memphis. That’s the optimal Dynasty Domino right there while balancing your Chief/Indian ratio.
Yeah, I think that Hayward's destined to be the odd man out if Boston lands Davis, there's no way they can afford the Irving/Davis/Hayward trio without hitting heretofore seen only by the Thunder levels of luxury tax. From Boston's point of view getting Tatum on his first max is a much better deal than Hayward's in the long term (even when Hayward is fully healthy again).There is also the added value of making the high lottery selection while protecting yourself from the repeater tax as you then can replace one of the veterans who are on a second contract. Rookie scale at $5-6m over paying say Jaylen $20m for majority of or similar production while flipping the latter for pick(s) down the road to potentially repeat the process as Ainge did with Brooklyn, the Clippers, and Memphis. That’s the optimal Dynasty Domino right there while balancing your Chief/Indian ratio.
You also have to wonder about Horford if Davis is brought in. Obviously would be a good problem to have to figure out.Yeah, I think that Hayward's destined to be the odd man out if Boston lands Davis, there's no way they can afford the Irving/Davis/Hayward trio without hitting heretofore seen only by the Thunder levels of luxury tax. From Boston's point of view getting Tatum on his first max is a much better deal than Hayward's in the long term (even when Hayward is fully healthy again).
Yes, I fully expect Horford to opt-out this summer and re-sign here if no Davis deal is made or to cash in someplace like Milwaukee or one of the LA's if a Davis deal does get done here.I'm assuming that Horford would absolutely be gone if Boston landed Davis.
Irving/Davis/Tatum/Smart would be a hell of a future...Yeah, I think that Hayward's destined to be the odd man out if Boston lands Davis, there's no way they can afford the Irving/Davis/Hayward trio without hitting heretofore seen only by the Thunder levels of luxury tax. From Boston's point of view getting Tatum on his first max is a much better deal than Hayward's in the long term (even when Hayward is fully healthy again).
Gasol may get moved though there is no clear fit out there that I can see (Lakers? Clippers? I would also add in the Knicks but they would have to fire their coach). Conley makes sense for a lot of teams in terms of skill set but his contract is a tough pill to swallow.
this could be significant
How about Miami for Gasol in exchange for Whiteside and a young asset/pick?Gasol may get moved though there is no clear fit out there that I can see (Lakers? Clippers? I would also add in the Knicks but they would have to fire their coach). Conley makes sense for a lot of teams in terms of skill set but his contract is a tough pill to swallow.
Memphis may be listening but I am not sure there are great deals out there for them given the players respective ages, injury histories and contracts.
Boy do I hope so!How about Miami for Gasol in exchange for Whiteside and a young asset/pick?
Conley has two years after this--that's not a franchise-killer if he gets hurt, so I could see some teams taking the risk. I'd have to list them out though: there aren't a ton.Gasol may get moved though there is no clear fit out there that I can see (Lakers? Clippers? I would also add in the Knicks but they would have to fire their coach). Conley makes sense for a lot of teams in terms of skill set but his contract is a tough pill to swallow.
Memphis may be listening but I am not sure there are great deals out there for them given the players respective ages, injury histories and contracts.
This is going to be interesting as both players have limited markets. Even in today “no-position” lineups each of these players......only play one position. Eliminate all rebuilding teams, eliminate Conley from playoff contenders with an established 1 and eliminate Gasol from playoff contenders with an established 5. I don’t have time to narrow it down right now but I’m guessing each only have 2-3 realistic destinations.Gasol may get moved though there is no clear fit out there that I can see (Lakers? Clippers? I would also add in the Knicks but they would have to fire their coach). Conley makes sense for a lot of teams in terms of skill set but his contract is a tough pill to swallow.
Memphis may be listening but I am not sure there are great deals out there for them given the players respective ages, injury histories and contracts.
Conley:This is going to be interesting as both players have limited markets. Even in today “no-position” lineups each of these players......only play one position. Eliminate all rebuilding teams, eliminate Conley from playoff contenders with an established 1 and eliminate Gasol from playoff contenders with an established 5. I don’t have time to narrow it down right now but I’m guessing each only have 2-3 realistic destinations.
Go Spurs Go!This is going to be interesting as both players have limited markets. Even in today “no-position” lineups each of these players......only play one position. Eliminate all rebuilding teams, eliminate Conley from playoff contenders with an established 1 and eliminate Gasol from playoff contenders with an established 5. I don’t have time to narrow it down right now but I’m guessing each only have 2-3 realistic destinations.
UPDATED BELOWGo Spurs Go!
Conley for Pau/Murray/filler
Who says no?
That makes the most sense to me: good young core, no real chance to add anyone big in FA. Conley on the Pacers is sneakily a really good team.Conley to the Pacers would kinda suck.
Not sure how the Pacers get that done. Evans/Bogdanovic and few other smaller salaried guys?Conley to the Pacers would kinda suck.
Good catch. Forgot to add “filler”. Not convinced SA wants any part of that deal but his window of effectiveness kind of lines up with that of DeRozan and Aldridge.I like your thought process but the League says no, money doesn't work.
but Pau + Mills + Murray for Conley works
UPDATEDGood catch. Forgot to add “filler”. Not convinced SA wants any part of that deal but his window of effectiveness kind of lines up with that of DeRozan and Aldridge.
I'm not sure whether a deal is feasible, but the natural fit for Conley might be New Orleans.Rebuilding teams which either think they are ready to be done building (Phoenix) or who have been rebuilding forever with no end in sight (Orlando) and lack a pg also make sense as destinations. Granted Conley does not fit the time frame as the rest of the roster but can provide 1) veteran leadership and 2) adequate lead guard play so that a team can actually assess the rest of the assets on its roster.
The Pacers have Joseph and Collison as expirings. They don’t need 47 million worth of point guards. Packaging one of Joseph or Collison along with Evans and O’Quinn gets them close to Conley’s salary.Not sure how the Pacers get that done. Evans/Bogdanovic and few other smaller salaried guys?
After Oladipo, no one makes more than like $13M and Conley is like $30M, so it takes multiple guys to get there, and most combos I try actually lower the Pacers expected wins.
Evans + Collison (40% 3Pt + assists leader) + O'Quinn still doesn't get it done money wise. Plus that's a fair amount of talent on short deals to give up for 1player to a long, expensive deal coming off an injured season.The Pacers have Joseph and Collison as expirings. They don’t need 47 million worth of point guards. Packaging one of Joseph or Collison along with Evans and O’Quinn gets them close to Conley’s salary.
I can't see the Spurs doing that. They love Murray and Mills is one of Pop's guys. I love Conley too and he would be a great fit there.I like your thought process but the League says no, money doesn't work.
but Pau + Mills + Murray for Conley works
With AD out a month, I can’t see the Pels trading a pick now. But Dell Demps is a horrible GM so you never know.I'm not sure whether a deal is feasible, but the natural fit for Conley might be New Orleans.
Spurs could pull back Murray and hand over another asset to sweeten it. Money works with Pau + Mills.I can't see the Spurs doing that. They love Murray and Mills is one of Pop's guys. I love Conley too and he would be a great fit there.
Conley on Denver would be kind of interesting. Murray and Milsap work though the way Murray has played of late probably gives Denver serious pause.
As for Conley to the Pacers, Young plus Evans for Conley works but Indiana will have to sweeten that pot with some picks. It really isn't a seamless fit and remember that the Pacers have Kevin Pritchard calling the shots - he does not have the reputation of someone who can easily get things done.
It's why I could see Hayward being part of a three way trade, say someplace like Indiana with Myles Turner/filler being added to Jaylen Brown/2019 draftee/Memphis pick to make the Davis deal work.Irving/Davis/Tatum/Smart would be a hell of a future...
I am sure that Magic and Pelinka would charter a jet to fly Rondo, KCP and Stephenson to Memphis. The problem is that they would have to package picks away and presumably they would prefer to save those for a bigger fish than Conley. I mean, the other option is to include one of the kids in Ball, Ingram or Kuzma to land him. As nighthob notes, they don't want to trade any of those guys or really any picks of value while Davis is in playThe Lakers could add Conley for Rondo + KCP + Lance.
Use Lonzo, Ingram, Kuzma, Hart as trade bait in the offseason.