The 2018 NBA Draft

DJnVa

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5:30 today.....Duke and Bagley vs. Texas and Bamba. Heck of a 1-on-1 matchup.
Duke down 10 late.

Bagley 22/9, Bamba 8/9

With Allen fouling out with 2 minutes left, Duke trying to finish off the comeback with 5 freshman. Down 2.

Bagley at 26/11
 
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Aug 24, 2017
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Very interesting decision by Bagley. There were 15 seconds left and he chose to run an isolation play where he took a contested three point shot.

Misses (obviously) and his decision leads them into OT. When he's inside, he's a man among boys (even though he is actually a high school senior) and can do whatever. But he's clearly watching the NBA and thinking he's the next unicorn. Maybe he gets there but not yet and in the meantime just go to hope it isn't at the expense of the team.
 

Kliq

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Not calling you out but is there a more annoying NBA buzz word than unicorn?
 
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Clears Cleaver

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Bagley is better than Towns was as frosh. This Duke team doesn’t play together or get back on D, looks a lot like Kentucky. But are 10-15 points more talented than everyone else. If only they were coached up...
 
Aug 24, 2017
397
@HomeRunBaker and @bowiac and @LondonSox and some others were discussing Bagley in the game thread and I wanted to try to bring it over here.

I think the question of Doncic v. Bagley for #1 overall is really, really interesting. HRB made the point about Bagley's counting stats and how eye-opening they have been. There's also the fact that he's playing with other future NBA players and top-five recruits and they all defer to him. But bigs in college are hard to gauge in my opinion. There are so few good big guys that you can put up some gaudy numbers and even when you play a guy like Bamba, who Bagley was great against, you are playing another 18 year old.

I don't think guards and wings have the same talent deficit in college, they are at least being guarded by guys their size with some decent athleticism.

Bagley is the best college player I have seen since Durant. It's early but I think he's better than Anthony Davis thus far (in college). But how his game translates to the next level is a fair question because he will still, I would think, have quite a bit of work to do and I'm not sure he has to do any work at this level.

Then there's Doncic who looks to be a really, tremendously talented player who picks up new skills each offseason and is arguably playing against better talent right now and certainly has the last few years.

So who would you take #1 right now and why and what sort of player do you think each can/will be at the next level? We're entering an interesting era where young guys are having real immediate impacts on teams.
 

bowiac

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Bagley is the best college player I have seen since Durant. It's early but I think he's better than Anthony Davis thus far (in college). But how his game translates to the next level is a fair question because he will still, I would think, have quite a bit of work to do and I'm not sure he has to do any work at this level.
Again, I'm not a draftnik, and apart from Michigan, I don't watch any college basketball other before March Madness, but for what it's worth, his BPM in college is relatively pedestrian (this is the same BPM as we have in the NBA).

BPM is only available since 2010 since college pace stats weren't kept before then, but Anthony Davis had the best BPM season recorded in that time period. Among freshmen, Davis and Towns were head and shoulders ahead of Embiid, who in turn is a good distance ahead of #4 (Zeller). Overall, you look at that list, and it's a pretty impressive group, and doesn't seem far off from the conventional wisdom about best college seasons. BPM isn't everything, but Bagley currently ranks 156th on that list (if you include this year), with a BPM less than half of Davis's.

This isn't to say he's not gonna be a superstar as a pro, and as I've said, I haven't seen him play a single minute, but he's so far behind guys like Davis and Towns in BPM that it at least raises an eyebrow to say he's the best college player since Durant.
 

SuperManny

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Again, I'm not a draftnik, and apart from Michigan, I don't watch any college basketball other before March Madness, but for what it's worth, his BPM in college is relatively pedestrian (this is the same BPM as we have in the NBA).

BPM is only available since 2010 since college pace stats weren't kept before then, but Anthony Davis had the best BPM season recorded in that time period. Among freshmen, Davis and Towns were head and shoulders ahead of Embiid, who in turn is a good distance ahead of #4 (Zeller). Overall, you look at that list, and it's a pretty impressive group, and doesn't seem far off from the conventional wisdom about best college seasons. BPM isn't everything, but Bagley currently ranks 156th on that list (if you include this year), with a BPM less than half of Davis's.

This isn't to say he's not gonna be a superstar as a pro, and as I've said, I haven't seen him play a single minute, but he's so far behind guys like Davis and Towns in BPM that it at least raises an eyebrow to say he's the best college player since Durant.
Using BPM for some other former Duke players:
Jahlil Okafor 17th
Jayson Tatum 133rd

Tatum is lower than I would have expected vs Okafor given how much of a liability Okafor was at times.
 

RedOctober3829

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@HomeRunBaker and @bowiac and @LondonSox and some others were discussing Bagley in the game thread and I wanted to try to bring it over here.

I think the question of Doncic v. Bagley for #1 overall is really, really interesting. HRB made the point about Bagley's counting stats and how eye-opening they have been. There's also the fact that he's playing with other future NBA players and top-five recruits and they all defer to him. But bigs in college are hard to gauge in my opinion. There are so few good big guys that you can put up some gaudy numbers and even when you play a guy like Bamba, who Bagley was great against, you are playing another 18 year old.

I don't think guards and wings have the same talent deficit in college, they are at least being guarded by guys their size with some decent athleticism.

Bagley is the best college player I have seen since Durant. It's early but I think he's better than Anthony Davis thus far (in college). But how his game translates to the next level is a fair question because he will still, I would think, have quite a bit of work to do and I'm not sure he has to do any work at this level.

Then there's Doncic who looks to be a really, tremendously talented player who picks up new skills each offseason and is arguably playing against better talent right now and certainly has the last few years.

So who would you take #1 right now and why and what sort of player do you think each can/will be at the next level? We're entering an interesting era where young guys are having real immediate impacts on teams.
Anthony Davis was a better player in college than Bagley has been to this point. Davis averaged 14/10/5(blocks) with a 62% FG/71% FT while Bagley is 22/11/1(block) right now with a 60% FG/62% FT. Davis only took 8 shots per game while Bagley is averaging 15 so his offensive numbers are going to be bigger. Davis' impact on the defensive end was dominant. It's something I haven't seen in the college game in a long time. Bagley struggles on defense. I like Bagley and think he's going to be an excellent pro, but Anthony Davis was better in college. So was Kevin Durant for that matter.
 

tims4wins

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Anthony Davis was a better player in college than Bagley has been to this point. Davis averaged 14/10/5(blocks) with a 62% FG/71% FT while Bagley is 22/11/1(block) right now with a 60% FG/62% FT. Davis only took 8 shots per game while Bagley is averaging 15 so his offensive numbers are going to be bigger. Davis' impact on the defensive end was dominant. It's something I haven't seen in the college game in a long time. Bagley struggles on defense. I like Bagley and think he's going to be an excellent pro, but Anthony Davis was better in college. So was Kevin Durant for that matter.
As a Duke fan I agree with all this.

One point on the FT% - he has been much better recently. Started 2/9, but is at 68.5% since. 77.8% last 3 games (21-27).
 

nighthob

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Bagley in Boston, apprenticing under Horford, is going to be a monster. He'll be great wherever he ends up, but serving his time on a stable contender will make all the difference in the world as we've seen with the Brown/Ingram situation. (Ingram will end up being a gret player, but Brown is progressing much faster for being in this situation, if the draft positions were reversed I imagine the results would look even better for Boston given that I think that Ingram has more ability.)
 

RedOctober3829

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Who is everybody's preference if the Celtics land the Lakers pick? I'd say in this order for me: Bagley, Doncic, Ayton, Bamba, Sexton, Bridges, Porter. I'd have Porter higher but back injuries are a scary thing. Bagley and Doncic are probably 1-2.
 

LondonSox

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@HomeRunBaker and @bowiac and @LondonSox and some others were discussing Bagley in the game thread and I wanted to try to bring it over here.

I think the question of Doncic v. Bagley for #1 overall is really, really interesting. HRB made the point about Bagley's counting stats and how eye-opening they have been. There's also the fact that he's playing with other future NBA players and top-five recruits and they all defer to him. But bigs in college are hard to gauge in my opinion. There are so few good big guys that you can put up some gaudy numbers and even when you play a guy like Bamba, who Bagley was great against, you are playing another 18 year old.

I don't think guards and wings have the same talent deficit in college, they are at least being guarded by guys their size with some decent athleticism.

Bagley is the best college player I have seen since Durant. It's early but I think he's better than Anthony Davis thus far (in college). But how his game translates to the next level is a fair question because he will still, I would think, have quite a bit of work to do and I'm not sure he has to do any work at this level.

Then there's Doncic who looks to be a really, tremendously talented player who picks up new skills each offseason and is arguably playing against better talent right now and certainly has the last few years.

So who would you take #1 right now and why and what sort of player do you think each can/will be at the next level? We're entering an interesting era where young guys are having real immediate impacts on teams.
It is preposterously early to have any meaningful insight into his college game, better than Davis when he hasn't shown any ability to shoot, defend, protect the rim and has passing questions.
Let alone in the early games I saw they were leaning hard on a 2-3 zone, which means you can get no read on their NBA defensive ability. Well not zero but...

I will also say I mainly follow others at this stage and then scout myself after the NBA season so I have only seen a little

Is he a 4? Is he good enough to beat 4s with his altheticism? Is he a 5? Is he big enough (not for me)
So to me he's a 4 in the NBA or a stretch 5 and I need to see real defense for a stretch 5 and real ability to beat his man one on one from the 4. His shooting is dubious.

For what it is worth the guys I follow who started a site I like the potential of is the stepien
They have Bagley ranked 9th in the 4th tier. Now this isn't everything but some good scouts who are saying he's not close to the best player in the draft. Let alone for years.
https://www.thestepien.com/marvin-bagley/

Here's their conclusion which highlights he can be
Bagley has a generational fluidity/coordination/explosiveness/finishing profile for a big on par with offensive Anthony Davis sans length extension, but lacks a clear position translation with the information we have currently. If he shows progress shooting college 3s consistently, as well as improved decision-making and the ability to handle better in self-creation situations, he could easily vie for #1 pick honors. Perimeter skills is the key area to monitor with Bagley, who ideally projects to start at the four at the next level and kick to the five whenever matchups allow, the latter which will unleash him offensively as a top-shelf finisher.
As for the counting stats, simply answer Okafor. Especially for a big man, defense matters. Okafor can't shoot can't play D could score and play in Duke's system to win a title and look passable defensively. He is not.
 

Koufax

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We all want this guy, but unless we are incredibly lucky (we get the #2 pick via LA and someone else gets picked no 1) we can't have him.
 

amarshal2

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Ayton. Big men aren’t supposed to be able to move and play like that. Reminds me of Embiid.
 

AMS25

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Trae Young has 21 points, 4 rebounds, and 7 assists in the first half at Wichita State. He's an amazing scorer.
Trae Young is the real deal. He was a hometown hero here in Norman at Norman North; it's amazing to see him have an immediate impact as a freshman at OU. Of course, he is slight and not that big (6'2"), so I'm not sure how well his game would translate in the pros.
 

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Trae Young is the real deal. He was a hometown hero here in Norman at Norman North; it's amazing to see him have an immediate impact as a freshman at OU. Of course, he is slight and not that big (6'2"), so I'm not sure how well his game would translate in the pros.
26 points, 22 assists tonight. The 22 assists tied an NCAA record.
 

Sox Puppet

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26 points, 22 assists tonight. The 22 assists tied an NCAA record.
Young is ridiculously good, routinely pulling up for threes 10' behind the arc and making them, or else making his way to the basket with ease for layups or floaters. He really is reminiscent of a young Steph.

Granted, this is a highlight reel, but oh man ...

 

chilidawg

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Any idea if he can defend?

Has another Freshman ever lead the country in points and assists? I don't think so. Only TJ Ford and Lonzo Ball have lead in assists, and only Jason Conley in scoring as Freshman. Curry lead in scoring as a Junior, but only averaged 5.6 assists.
 

AMS25

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Any idea if he can defend?

Has another Freshman ever lead the country in points and assists? I don't think so. Only TJ Ford and Lonzo Ball have lead in assists, and only Jason Conley in scoring as Freshman. Curry lead in scoring as a Junior, but only averaged 5.6 assists.
Defense is not his strength, but he does get quite a few steals because of his quickness. Could be another Griffin/Bradford year in which the same university produced both the Wooden Award Winner and the Heisman Trophy Winner.
 

DannyDarwinism

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I posted this last week, but for some reason (wishful thinking) I posted it in the Lakers thread instead of here, but I'm still curious to see what the guys here who've watched a lot of college ball over the years thing of Trae so far, so I'll re-post:

Have any thoughts on Trae Young? It seems like people nowadays throw out the Steph comps for any smooth but slight and relatively unathletic point guard who can shoot, but from what little I've seen, Young really does have a preternatural feel for the game. Plus, along with his shot, he changes speeds really well to facilitate his excellent handle and finishes pretty well for a guy his size. That said, I feel like there's been a fair amount of guys like him in college who end up getting bullied at the next level and find out that being within squinting distance of Steph's shooting/handle/craft is still a long way away from superstardom. I have seen scouts putting him ahead of Sexton, with some putting him in their top five. His numbers are tough to ignore for a freshman though, plus he's a fun guy to watch, so I'm sure I'll see more of him.​

Fun with numbers, so far: Young is currently sitting at 36.6 PER. Since they began measuring in 2009, only two other underclassmen have put up PERs above 35. Anthony Davis (35.1) as a freshman, and John Collins (35.9) as a sophomore last year. No freshman guard with significant minutes has finished above 30. Kyrie did (32.5), as did Maurice Creek for Indiana back in 2010, but Trae has already played more minutes than they did in their injury shortened seasons. Lowering your cutoff to freshman guards with PER > 25 brings in D'Angelo Russell, CJ McCollum, Fultz (second highest at 27.9), RJ Hunter and Alec Burks. Collin Sexton is also on pace to hit this.

By OBPM, he's even more of an outlier. The only freshman or sophomore players at any position to have an ORPM > 9.0 are Trey Burke (9.9), Staukas (9.0), Derrick Williams (9.0) and PJ Hairston (10.1). All were sophomores. Most of the freshman guards at majors who finished with ORPM > 6.0 ended up as lottery picks. Denzel Valentine (12.2) is the only other guy to finish above 12, and he did it as a senior. Young is currently at 14.6.

Conference play is still two weeks away, but what he's doing so far on offense has never really even been approached by a freshman.
 

Sprowl

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Trae Young has a very odd shot -- a quick release from a low set, with an unusually low trajectory. Each three-pointer looks like it ought to be a brick, but I can't quarrel with the results.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Trae Young has a very odd shot -- a quick release from a low set, with an unusually low trajectory. Each three-pointer looks like it ought to be a brick, but I can't quarrel with the results.
I thought the same thing (that may not be a good thing Sir Sprowl...).

It leads me to wonder whether Young can get his shot off against NBA defenders who will give him less space with which to shoot given how much faster they close than college kids. And the low trajectory/arc gives me concern that opposing players will block or deflect quite a few shots that are falling for him this year. If you look at Curry's shot (an obvious comp for Young as noted upthread), his release is higher and quicker than Young's - at least from watching his highlights.

The difference in the speed of defenders in the college game versus the Association is pretty huge. This isn't to say Young cannot make the adjustment and be an elite scorer in the NBA. However his mechanics are likely going to need work before he gets there.
 

DannyDarwinism

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I thought the same thing (that may not be a good thing Sir Sprowl...).

It leads me to wonder whether Young can get his shot off against NBA defenders who will give him less space with which to shoot given how much faster they close than college kids. And the low trajectory/arc gives me concern that opposing players will block or deflect quite a few shots that are falling for him this year. If you look at Curry's shot (an obvious comp for Young as noted upthread), his release is higher and quicker than Young's - at least from watching his highlights.

The difference in the speed of defenders in the college game versus the Association is pretty huge. This isn't to say Young cannot make the adjustment and be an elite scorer in the NBA. However his mechanics are likely going to need work before he gets there.
This piece touches on his release, with clips:
https://www.thestepien.com/2017/12/11/can-trae-young-generational-shooter/

He gets it off so quickly, and so effectively off the bounce, that I wouldn't be too concerned with his low release point. Plus, as Zwicker points out in the article, he can do what Tatum did and tweak his mechanics with a shooting coach after the college season ends. His form looks solid enough to me, it's not like it would need major reconstructive surgery to raise his release point a bit. I guess you never know, but it seems to be working out for our guy pretty well.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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This piece touches on his release, with clips:
https://www.thestepien.com/2017/12/11/can-trae-young-generational-shooter/

He gets it off so quickly, and so effectively off the bounce, that I wouldn't be too concerned with his low release point. Plus, as Zwicker points out in the article, he can do what Tatum did and tweak his mechanics with a shooting coach after the college season ends. His form looks solid enough to me, it's not like it would need major reconstructive surgery to raise his release point a bit. I guess you never know, but it seems to be working out for our guy pretty well.
This is a great article. Thank you for posting it. I am excited to see if Young does, indeed, translate into a great shooter in the NBA. I would love it if he does as they make watching just about any NBA game so much better.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Trae Young has 21 points, 4 rebounds, and 7 assists in the first half at Wichita State. He's an amazing scorer.
Young is so much more than a scorer too. He sees the floor as a pure point guard and plays under control seemingly at all times. He's a modern day 1.

I haven’t watched any CBB this year, but Bamba looks great tonight against Bama. I’d love for the C’s to “luck” into him with the 5th pick.
I was thinking this same thing last night with the needs we will need at the 5 moving forward. Mamba appeared stiff with little offensive game in what I saw last year but he's impressed me so far his freshman season. Quick feet, excellent at showing high (and good luck shooting a 3 over him on a switch), and most importantly for a kid with his length and shot blocking ability......he is VERY active! The kid is a can't miss imo with Capela as his floor. He has a lot of KG in him on the defensive side of the ball.

This draft is silly.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Markelle Fultz? Jayson Tatum? Josh Jackson? DeAaron Fox? Jonathan Isaac? Lauri Markkanen? Frank Ntilikina? Dennis Smith Jr? Zach Collins?
Kris Dunn, Austin Rivers, Lonzo Ball......pretty much any college player when you look for a flaw in their game at the next level. Young is a lot like Dunn in the way he negotiates the pick n roll to angle his defender......very smart with the ball and quick as a cat. I don't see the issues.
 

RedOctober3829

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Young is so much more than a scorer too. He sees the floor as a pure point guard and plays under control seemingly at all times. He's a modern day 1.
I'd have to give serious thought to drafting him with the Lakers pick if we get it. Yes, the bigs in this draft are great but what if we get the Lakers pick and it ends up being 5? Bagley/Doncic/Bamba/Ayton may all be taken. He's too good of a talent to pass up. He would be a perfect fit for the 2nd unit offense at the very least. Imagine a starting 5 of Kyrie/Hayward/Brown/Tatum/Horford with a 2nd unit of Young/Rozier/Semi/Yabu/Theis. The presence of Young would push Smart out the door, but upgrade the offense off the bench tremendously.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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I'd have to give serious thought to drafting him with the Lakers pick if we get it. Yes, the bigs in this draft are great but what if we get the Lakers pick and it ends up being 5, 6, or 7? Bagley/Doncic/Bamba/Ayton may all be taken. He's too good of a talent to pass up. He would be a perfect fit for the 2nd unit offense at the very least. Imagine a starting 5 of Kyrie/Hayward/Brown/Tatum/Horford with a 2nd unit of Young/Rozier/Semi/Yabu/Theis. The presence of Young would push Smart out the door, but upgrade the offense off the bench tremendously.
I've been steadfast, much to nighthob's dismay, on Rozier stepping into Smart's role (which will be more limited once Hayward returns) on his rookie deal with the 4th guard being an acquisition of some sort who will be able to then move into Rozier's roles on HIS rookie deal the following year. Those backup minutes have always been a revolving door for Ainge so I could see this happening if the 3 top bigs are gone......I could also see Ainge moving the 5th pick for the 9th to get his guy while rolling over another lottery pick into next year or the following to secure more assets for Brow or whomever.
 

The Needler

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I'd have to give serious thought to drafting him with the Lakers pick if we get it. Yes, the bigs in this draft are great but what if we get the Lakers pick and it ends up being 5, 6, or 7? Bagley/Doncic/Bamba/Ayton may all be taken. He's too good of a talent to pass up. He would be a perfect fit for the 2nd unit offense at the very least. Imagine a starting 5 of Kyrie/Hayward/Brown/Tatum/Horford with a 2nd unit of Young/Rozier/Semi/Yabu/Theis. The presence of Young would push Smart out the door, but upgrade the offense off the bench tremendously.
Isn't the Lakers pick protected after #5? It's only 2-5, no?
 

BigSoxFan

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My mistake. Thought it was 2-7 protected. Yes, it is 2-5 protected. My larger point still stands. If Ayton/Bamba/Bagley are taken and Celts are at 5, Young would be a great fallback.
In that scenario, Young vs. Porter would be an interesting decision.
 

NoXInNixon

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My mistake. Thought it was 2-7 protected. Yes, it is 2-5 protected. My larger point still stands. If Ayton/Bamba/Bagley are taken and Celts are at 5, Young would be a great fallback.
If the Celtics end up with 5, Danny still has enough future assets to entice teams at 3 or 4 to swap.
 

the moops

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If the Celtics end up with 5, Danny still has enough future assets to entice teams at 3 or 4 to swap.
The asset required to move up 2 spots in last years draft was a top 5'ish future lottery pick. Don't think I would want Ainge to do anything like that especially considering the talent avilable at #5
 

lovegtm

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The asset required to move up 2 spots in last years draft was a top 5'ish future lottery pick. Don't think I would want Ainge to do anything like that especially considering the talent avilable at #5
Yup, far more likely he'd move down if the guy at #5 is still elite and he can split the pick into multiple high-value assets.
 

nighthob

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The presence of Young would push Smart out the door, but upgrade the offense off the bench tremendously.
Unless his physicals come back pretty hopeless, Porter would almost certainly be the pick at #5. But even if the pick were Young, it would almost certainly be the 6’1” Rozier outbound. Neither is really big enough to guard shooting guards and Rozier’s real use is man up defense against PGs.
 
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NoXInNixon

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The asset required to move up 2 spots in last years draft was a top 5'ish future lottery pick. Don't think I would want Ainge to do anything like that especially considering the talent avilable at #5
It's a bit of a different thing to move from 5 to 3 as it is to move from 3 to 1.
 

RedOctober3829

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Unless his physicals come back pretty hopeless, Porter would almost certainly be the pick at #5. But even if the pick were Young, it would almost certainly be the 6’1” Rozier outbound. Neither is really big enough to guard shooting guards and Rozier’s real use is man up defense against PGs.
Are you going to pony up to sign Smart with Young in the fold? I wouldn’t.