The 2023 Trade Deadline: Scenarios
- Thread starter nvalvo
- Start date
Realistically speaking, which teams match up best who need a top two or three starter and have what Boston could use?
Honestly, if I'm Toronto, I'm trying to get him on the plane when they leave town, because he's a stud in Canada. Not sure what they have that Boston might want. If not them, I wonder if Tampa would be interested? They have to have plenty of good talent.
I know we're supposed to root, root, root for the home team and never say die, but that attitude rarely pays off and this team has none of the hallmarks of past teams that were hanging around and then went on a run. This is a poorly-constructed, deeply flawed team that almost perfectly encapsulates mediocrity. Those kind of teams don't win titles.
It's time to be prudent.
Honestly, if I'm Toronto, I'm trying to get him on the plane when they leave town, because he's a stud in Canada. Not sure what they have that Boston might want. If not them, I wonder if Tampa would be interested? They have to have plenty of good talent.
I'm not picking on you, but the "they can still get in" Pollyanna outlook is reductive at this point, at least to me. They are not a team that can win in October. I don't care what their bullpen stats are or how good their run prevention has been as a staff: they can't hit or field consistently and have lost more series than they've won. They are not a good team. The only reason they are "in it" is because of the stupid playoff format and the fact that the entire AL Central stinks out loud. Making the playoffs and losing in the first or second round is pointless, unless you are making a profit off vendor sales at the park. It hurts their draft position, at the very least, and will likely mean they don't get under the LT limit again.
I know we're supposed to root, root, root for the home team and never say die, but that attitude rarely pays off and this team has none of the hallmarks of past teams that were hanging around and then went on a run. This is a poorly-constructed, deeply flawed team that almost perfectly encapsulates mediocrity. Those kind of teams don't win titles.
It's time to be prudent.
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I'm coveting Pittsburgh's Endy Rodriguez, a switch hitting C/2B/OF (look Chaim, versatility!) who lit the world on fire in 2022 and has struggled more to hit in AAA this year, but is still probably on the cusp of MLB promotion. Their rotation has Rich Hill as a number 3 and has 11 starts of 5.95 ERA from Roansy Contreras.
If they hadn't completely blown apart this month (3 straight series sweeps!), this might be more likely, but they're currently 4.5 back of the division lead (6.5 off the WC), so they might not want to pay for a pure rental at this point.
The Dodgers also have a top catching prospect having a down offensive year in Diego Cartaya (in AA, ETA 2024), and they've gotten 22 starts from guys with ERAs north of 7 (!) this year.
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WTF??? Really? People were saying they want a consistency competitive team and now a competitive team doesn’t mean shit…. I’m so confused. You’re all consistently moving the goal further away from your own selves!!!
Nothing about this message board makes sense anymore. It's insanity, and also why I have largely given up on trying to post anything substantial anymore.
I enjoy this team and want them to win, maddening as they have been at times. I am also excited for the organization's future.
This is a different case IMO, a lot of things lining up:
-this team, with Sale/Houck out another month at least, has like a 5-10% of going anywhere this year
-Paxton is a UFA next year and only will cost between 1-2 million on payroll - can go for a full prospect return here
-Paxton is pitching like a bonafide #1, and thus you can expect a top 100 prospect in the game as a headliner in a package, if not even more in a bidding war
-Paxton has an injury history where you can argue he's a ticking time bomb and his value could plummet on every single pitch over the next month. This injury history is also why you can argue against just extending him now.
I would pull the trigger at the first offer Chaim likes, but it's a really tough decision. As far as potential matches, the Reds could go for it in their weak division and have several useful (and blocked?) strong prospects.
-this team, with Sale/Houck out another month at least, has like a 5-10% of going anywhere this year
-Paxton is a UFA next year and only will cost between 1-2 million on payroll - can go for a full prospect return here
-Paxton is pitching like a bonafide #1, and thus you can expect a top 100 prospect in the game as a headliner in a package, if not even more in a bidding war
-Paxton has an injury history where you can argue he's a ticking time bomb and his value could plummet on every single pitch over the next month. This injury history is also why you can argue against just extending him now.
I would pull the trigger at the first offer Chaim likes, but it's a really tough decision. As far as potential matches, the Reds could go for it in their weak division and have several useful (and blocked?) strong prospects.
Wow. Relax. I just said there’s no hurry to trade Paxton. If you’re in a hurry to give up, I won’t stop you.
We're back to cave-dwelling GMs.
Who is going to give up a top 100 prospect for a "ticking time bomb" that happens to be pitching like a #1 right now?
Yes, sell high now makes a lot of assumptions and presumptions with the majority of control here being in the hands of other GMs. I'm sure that there are more than a handful who are interested and keeping a close watch. How early might one of them wish to get out in front of the pack? If he continues on this track, competition for his services would be a good thing. Perhaps a move now with a GM feeling a great enough need to give Chaim what he wants in exchange for the exclusivity for being ahead of the competition works out better, but selling high only works when someone else is willing to buy high.
But there is. If he goes out again and gets hurt through no fault of his own, his value as a trade piece craters. It's not giving up, it's being realistic and choosing the better part of valor.
Do you really think this team is competitive? After one game against Toronto? After losing three straight to the Marlins and splitting on a road trip against the aforementioned terrible AL Central? If so, we have different definitions of competitive. Hovering around .500 is not, to me.
It's not so crazy for a rental. A team that wants to solidify their chances in the playoffs could absolutely pull that sort of deal. Paxton missed a couple of years, but that happens with pitchers. You can see a GM who wants to bolster the rotation justifying the trade: he's a bonafide ace, and before he needed surgery, he was reliable for twenty plus starts for three years in a row.
I think trading him will need ownership approval, and that's where things might get dicey. I can squint and see this team getting Sale and Story back, and promoting Rafaela because of his defense, and suddenly the team goes from bad defensively to quite good, and Devers gets hot at the same time as Casas and Masa and Turner and suddenly the team turns into a juggernaught.
I could also see Paxton going down and Sale's arm flying off in a freak accident and the offense sputtering, though. I'm not confident in either outcome.
My gut tells me they sell - not only Paxton but Turner and Duvall, if they can get returns for them - and that it's the smart move given where they stand, but I'm not confident in my gut either.
This happens, Paxton pitches like an ace, his new team wins the WS and Bloom will forever suck for taking garbage in exchange.
There's no doubt that Paxton has legit value to a contending team right now. No doubt at all. He's been awesome, and frankly, over his whole career, when healthy, he's been a really good pitcher (career 3.53 era, 1.19 whip, 10.0 k/9). He's healthy now. He's dialed in. And he costs virtually nothing cash-wise, so it even opens the door for smaller market teams to be in on him. And for Boston, if they eat the small amount left on his deal, that could help bring back an even better return.
Some contending teams that sure could use another terrific starter:
- Bal: They are running two guys out there who haven't been good - Gibson (17 starts, 4.66 era) and Kremer (17 starts, 5.04 era). Plus another 10 starts from Rodriguez (7.35 era) and 6 from Irvin (7.18 era). They really need starting pitching help, and they have an elite farm system and a ton of young talent.
- Min: They've gotten 16 combined starts from Varland (5.30 era) and Maeda (6.23 era). They have a few intriguing prospects.
- Cle: Cal Quantrill (12 starts, 6.18 era), Battenfield (6 starts, 5.19 era) would be candidates to be replaced. They've got a very good farm system.
- LAA: Sandoval (15 starts, 4.57 era), Anderson (14 starts, 5.54 era), and Canning (13 starts, 4.29 era). FINALLY they are pretty competitive after so many years with Trout NOT being competitive. They need to push some chips into the middle of the table here. Not a great system, but some pretty decent pitching prospects have made their way to the upper levels.
- Pit: They've got a bunch of starters who are meh. Some of them are young though, and maybe they're ok just letting it play out. But they sure could use a top end starter to pair with Keller (3.34 era, 10.1 k/9). Lots to choose from in their system.
- LAD: Urias (4.39 era) and Syndergaard (7.16 era) could be upgraded. Obviously Urias has been really good for them before, but if he's struggling this year and maybe the Dodgers want an upgrade for 2023. Terrific farm system full of young talent.
So there are plenty of teams that could sure use a guy like Paxton. And there's high quality prospects to be had, if Boston wants to go that route. Or maybe right now isn't a bad time to see if he would take a 2-year extension at reasonable money. Maybe he figures, hey, this could blow up anytime so get while the getting's good so yeah, I'll sign a 2-year, $28 million extension. That would help Boston have a quality veteran in the rotation for the next two years while they bring up the young arms at reasonable money. Yes there's risk but that's not a terrible deal.
Some contending teams that sure could use another terrific starter:
- Bal: They are running two guys out there who haven't been good - Gibson (17 starts, 4.66 era) and Kremer (17 starts, 5.04 era). Plus another 10 starts from Rodriguez (7.35 era) and 6 from Irvin (7.18 era). They really need starting pitching help, and they have an elite farm system and a ton of young talent.
- Min: They've gotten 16 combined starts from Varland (5.30 era) and Maeda (6.23 era). They have a few intriguing prospects.
- Cle: Cal Quantrill (12 starts, 6.18 era), Battenfield (6 starts, 5.19 era) would be candidates to be replaced. They've got a very good farm system.
- LAA: Sandoval (15 starts, 4.57 era), Anderson (14 starts, 5.54 era), and Canning (13 starts, 4.29 era). FINALLY they are pretty competitive after so many years with Trout NOT being competitive. They need to push some chips into the middle of the table here. Not a great system, but some pretty decent pitching prospects have made their way to the upper levels.
- Pit: They've got a bunch of starters who are meh. Some of them are young though, and maybe they're ok just letting it play out. But they sure could use a top end starter to pair with Keller (3.34 era, 10.1 k/9). Lots to choose from in their system.
- LAD: Urias (4.39 era) and Syndergaard (7.16 era) could be upgraded. Obviously Urias has been really good for them before, but if he's struggling this year and maybe the Dodgers want an upgrade for 2023. Terrific farm system full of young talent.
So there are plenty of teams that could sure use a guy like Paxton. And there's high quality prospects to be had, if Boston wants to go that route. Or maybe right now isn't a bad time to see if he would take a 2-year extension at reasonable money. Maybe he figures, hey, this could blow up anytime so get while the getting's good so yeah, I'll sign a 2-year, $28 million extension. That would help Boston have a quality veteran in the rotation for the next two years while they bring up the young arms at reasonable money. Yes there's risk but that's not a terrible deal.
The Dodgers traded Ruiz and Gray for Scherzer and Turner in 2021.
Scherzer was worth 3 wins for the Nats and was projected to be worth another 1.5-2 wins (plus the playoffs) when he was traded. Turner was worth 4 wins, a reasonable projection of 1.5-2 wins the rest of the season and 3-4 wins the year after.
Ruiz was ranked 84 and was a 50FV prospect while Gray was ranked 27 and was a 55FV prospect based on fangraphs' projections. As a 50FV prospect, Ruiz was projected to be worth 1.6-2.4 wins and Gray was projected to be worth 2.6-3.4 wins over the 6 years of team controlled service.
The Dodgers traded for 6-8 wins, giving away two top 100 prospects who were projected to be worth 4.2-5.8 wins. Maybe the Nats couldn't get better offers or they really liked Ruiz and/or Gray.
Paxton is projected by the models on fangraphs to be worth around 1.5 wins the rest of the season. From this, it's hard to see how we get a top 100 prospect unless there's a bidding frenzy. Maybe we could get a 45+ FV prospect, prospects ranked 120-150.
However, if we exclude Paxton's first three games and chalk it off to rust, and use the last 6 games, his FIP and xFIP drops to around 3. Using this as a projection for the rest of his season, based on searching for comparable FIP and xFIP projections for other pitchers, Paxton could be worth 2-3 wins. Depending on how much the buying team believes in his current performance, Paxton would get a top 100 prospect.
Scherzer was worth 3 wins for the Nats and was projected to be worth another 1.5-2 wins (plus the playoffs) when he was traded. Turner was worth 4 wins, a reasonable projection of 1.5-2 wins the rest of the season and 3-4 wins the year after.
Ruiz was ranked 84 and was a 50FV prospect while Gray was ranked 27 and was a 55FV prospect based on fangraphs' projections. As a 50FV prospect, Ruiz was projected to be worth 1.6-2.4 wins and Gray was projected to be worth 2.6-3.4 wins over the 6 years of team controlled service.
The Dodgers traded for 6-8 wins, giving away two top 100 prospects who were projected to be worth 4.2-5.8 wins. Maybe the Nats couldn't get better offers or they really liked Ruiz and/or Gray.
Paxton is projected by the models on fangraphs to be worth around 1.5 wins the rest of the season. From this, it's hard to see how we get a top 100 prospect unless there's a bidding frenzy. Maybe we could get a 45+ FV prospect, prospects ranked 120-150.
However, if we exclude Paxton's first three games and chalk it off to rust, and use the last 6 games, his FIP and xFIP drops to around 3. Using this as a projection for the rest of his season, based on searching for comparable FIP and xFIP projections for other pitchers, Paxton could be worth 2-3 wins. Depending on how much the buying team believes in his current performance, Paxton would get a top 100 prospect.
Yeah I’m still thinking this team can get into the playoffs and shouldn’t be selling unless it’s a buy-sell peripheral part to upgrade. Lots of ifs but IDGAF….
I lowered my expectations coming in to the season and have enjoyed the team much more than last year’s squad. (That’s a poke at Xander’s leadership)
Put me in the Playoffs or bust category. I think there is a scenario that leads to a team peaking at the right time and am fine with it not working out. Sure they might get in and get smoked but that’s experience for the kids and more baseball for me.
Regarding Paxton - Why shouldn’t the Red Sox sign him to an extension? If he’s traded - Who do they replace him next year and forward?
Pitchers get hurt. Pitchers also get healthy. Incredibly tough to develop stud starting pitchers that never get hurt. Crazy that people on this board bitch that Eovaldi and Wacha should obviously have been signed. There is also a crew of complainers that think FSG is cheap because they didn’t sign a DeGrom or Rodon.
The Sox don’t have a strong SP prospect line. To win a championship they are going to need a Paxton type* in the rotation and healthy for the playoffs.
* top of the rotation at less than elite free agent prices. Depth is the SP goal for this team.
If we can't get anything worthwhile, I would be fine with keeping him and extending him.
I have no problem dealing off any particular players for prospects and playing the kids. However, at some point we need to be fielding a team that if not competitive is at least representative of a real MLB team. If we trade both Duvall and Turner, our only remaining right handed power would be Bobby D until Story gets back, and we will learn the names of every left handed pitcher in the league. If we trade Paxton, we have to put Pivetta back in the rotation, and accept that we will be having at least one bullpen game out of 5 until Houck or Sale comes back.
I don't mind losing if it leads to player development for the future, but I'm not sure if two months of road spring training line ups gives a genuine MLB experience.
I don't mind losing if it leads to player development for the future, but I'm not sure if two months of road spring training line ups gives a genuine MLB experience.
I’d rather just offer Paxton the aforementioned 2/28 and keep him. There’s value in competitive baseball through September and if they could squeak in, Paxton/Bello could win any playoff series.
Minnesota's starting pitching is their biggest strength. If they're willing to give up legit prospects for a run, it will be for offense and the front of their bullpen.
Cleveland doesn't trade for starting pitching – they find it in their couch cushions. Battenfield was nothing more than filler back in April before they were ready to start calling up their prospects. He was barely part of the team then and has been on the IL for months... he doesn't need replaced. Quantrill just came off the IL yesterday and is barely hanging on to a job despite Triston McKenzie being on the IL and Zach Plesac getting himself outrighted to Columbus. Quantrill has until the All-Star break (or the end of July at best) to show he still deserves a rotation spot before he gets sent back to the bullpen in favor of Bieber, Civale, Williams, Bibee and Allen. They can also give Cody Morris or Xzavion Curry another opportunity at the rotation. The whole organization is set up to never need to overpay for pitching and they haven't traded for starting pitching at the deadline since Ubaldo Jimenez in 2011. Any prospects dealt will be for offense.
Knowing what these teams are doing and what their needs are requires more than a 30-second perusal of b-ref if you're unfamiliar with them.
I think keeping an open line of communication with Paxton & his camp is super important. Discussions regarding an extension should be happening to see if they are on the same page, & if they aren't, there should be an understanding that a trade might be necessary depending on the offers & the team results.
Who knows, if he's happy enough with how he's treated, we may be able to rent him out for a decent haul then bring him back in the off season for not crazy $$$.
Who knows, if he's happy enough with how he's treated, we may be able to rent him out for a decent haul then bring him back in the off season for not crazy $$$.
Good assessment, and I’ll echo the note you end on. Of course it depends on the return, but I’m personally not sold that it wouldn’t be better to extend him!
Lotta money involved in that Scherzer/Turner deal too though. Scherzer made $34M that year ($30.1 aav) and Turner made $13M in 2021 and $21M in 2022. The Nats paid 2/3 of their ‘21 salaries, but that’s still a lot of money. Plus there was Scherzer’s NTC. The Nats did okay in that return, but it’s not like every team could have been in on that package. Paxton, by contrast, is costs the acquiring team about $1.4 to $2 million, extremely low for a rental ace.
I think they will trade Paxton. There have been quite a few players who’ve seemed destined to be flipped but haven’t because of injury or otherwise. Eovaldi and JDM of course, but also Dalbec, Wacha, Hosmer, Richards, maybe even Duran. It’d be nice to recoup.
It starts to get really interesting if you think about what a Paxton/Duran package might bring back. I trust the team’s scouting (the Alex Binelas whiff notwithstanding), but some interesting targets in the mid-to-back fields of the Top 100 include:
Cam Collier (CIN), 3B
Luisangel Acuña (TEX) SS/2B/CF
Andy Pages (LAD), RF
Andrew Abbott (CIN), LHSP
Emmanuel Rodriguez (MIN), RF
Joey Ortiz (BAL), SS
Paxton and Duran to the Dodgers for Emmet Sheehan and Andy Pages? To the Reds for Collier, Senzel and (currently hurt) Tejay Antone? Paxton alone to the Twins for Emmanuel Rodriguez?
One guy said it. Let’s not go “you all” when it was one guy. That ruins the conversation.
Precisely. As a colleague of mine likes to say, you can’t expect people to be smart one minute and dumb the next.
This team should probably both buy *and* sell as we get closer to the deadline. Just look for value in both, and keep an eye on next season. That’s going to be this front office’s make or break year, quite literally.
This team is a dog chasing a parked car. Even if they get to the playoffs (which is looking more and more like a long shot), they won't go very far. They're not consistent. They need to gain more experience while also getting better in the rotation and in the field.
I'd say that the pre-arb players (with the exception of Dalbec) are untouchable unless an overwhelming offer comes through. Outside of that, everyone but Devers is on the table. Paxton will probably get the most back in a trade. Experienced pitching to get some stud pitching prospect (kind of like Boddicker for Schilling) is something htey should be actively pursuing this morning.
I'd say that the pre-arb players (with the exception of Dalbec) are untouchable unless an overwhelming offer comes through. Outside of that, everyone but Devers is on the table. Paxton will probably get the most back in a trade. Experienced pitching to get some stud pitching prospect (kind of like Boddicker for Schilling) is something htey should be actively pursuing this morning.
This is both what Bloom should and likely will do, and the press is going to *hate it.*
Meh, the “press” will hate any approach because this team is mediocre. Sell and he’s giving up on the locker room. Buy and it’s folly because the team isn’t good enough. Do both and he’s indecisive and what’s the plan.
The bottom line is that I firmly believe 2024 is it for Bloom. He’s gotta field a legitimate title contender next year. A 92+ win team. A team that at least is firmly in the #1/2 wild card spot with room to spare over #3.
He can bear the press griping if he’s making moves to deliver on that. And if he doesn’t deliver that then I think he’s gone.
Yeah, you try to work out an extension now. I imagine the Sox would go 2 years, Paxton probably wants 3 or 4. So if you can’t find common ground, you move him at the deadline- although the Sox do seem likely to offer him a QO, as of now, which lessens the necessity to move him. Of course, he could also get injured at any minute which is a risk factor for all involved.
Another thing he should be doing now is finding out Verdugo’s asking price for an extension, or a theoretical FA contract after next season. I’m open to extending him at the right price, but IMO he is probably not this team’s ideal long-term right fielder.
Rafaela is close, Duran is good now, and Verdugo is a modestly above-average regular, who may or may not have found a new plateau (he’s got a good-not-great 114 wRC+ since May 10th). I think it makes a lot of sense to trade one of them, and I don’t think it’s Rafaela.
Rafaela is close, Duran is good now, and Verdugo is a modestly above-average regular, who may or may not have found a new plateau (he’s got a good-not-great 114 wRC+ since May 10th). I think it makes a lot of sense to trade one of them, and I don’t think it’s Rafaela.
I would add Yoshida to Devers as untouchable just because. For reality's sake Story and Sale are also there, but nobody's likely asking for them right now anyway.
Especially since he recently said he's all ears if they want to talk one. Not sure what a player of his caliber would command, since he still hasn't quite put it all together, if he ever will, but I'd imagine the floor for length is three years, maybe four.
I'm on board with extending Verdugo and while Duran seems much improved, but I'm not quite ready to say that he's good now. I'd like to see this level sustained for a bit as he does seem to regress at times. If Duran is the player that he seems to be developing into I'd like to see him slide into the Duvall role next season and Rafaela slide into the Kike' role. RFsnyder is the 5th OF and along with Yoshida in LF I think it's a slightly better OF than this season. Masa/Duran/RFsnyder in LF, Duran/Rafaela in CF, Verdugo/RFsnyder in RF. While Story prefers to play SS, I would like to see a MI rotation of Story at both SS and 2B with Rafaela at SS and Arroyo (or replacement) at 2nd. I've gone on record as saying I prefer the DH slot being cycled through the lineup, but Turner has a player option for next season so we'll see how that all plays out. If he's back and seems able to back up the corners again then that's what's likely to happen. Devers is locked up, Casas is the first baseman and Wongers should be part of a platoon behind the plate. Obviously there may be a move or two that alters things a bit, but I think that is a pretty decent jumping off point for '24. Health is always a wild card, but a line up featuring Story, Rafaela and an improved Duran should improve the middle of the field defense immensely. I think Bloom looks to get whatever he might for Kike' and Duvall. It won't be a helluva a lot, but you need filler in the minors or might find a pen guy who benefits from a change in scenery. I'm not big into my team losing games, but a bad showing in the next 10 games or so will pretty much dictate what happens with Paxton.
Whoops. Yoshida is a big miss on my part. Agreed.
Sale is only going to go if the Sox go salary dump mode. Even then, they would to throw in a prospect or two to get anything decent for prospects back. Sox would probably end up getting some other teams high-priced flotsam back to even it out.
I'm not sure if anyone would pick up Story. Has played in 94 games in the last two seasons. Was a free agent that no one bit on until late in Spring Training of 2022. If they didn't want him when he actually had some value, why would anyone want him now?
I don't think there's a chance in hell that he accepts that. Unless he gets hurt he's looking at the QO as a minimum, which will be about 20 mil.
Something like 2/$36 with a third year $20M option triggered by IP, or $4 buyout? So he’d be guaranteed 2/$40 with potential to get to 3/$56? For his age 35-37 years. Not even sure how to feel about that.
Yeah 2/28 is laughable at this point with Paxton. He’s pitching like a legit ace. Maybe if he has some regression between now and the end of the year it changes, but he could get 1/25 on the open market (not that he’d take a 1 year deal) right now if he wanted to. I think you’re going minimum 3/60 or something to extend him. Maybe you could go 2/44 or something like that?
The injury risk still looms but assuming he’s fully back from TJ surgery back in 2021, then most teams are probably going to feel ok for at least a 2 or 3 year deal and if it’s a guy who has 11 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 numbers, they are going to open the checkbook.
Yes, I think his opting into this season for $4M will be sold by his representation as giving Boston a very good deal and that Paxton should be looking to get paid on what is likely to be his last opportunity to get big money.
OK, that's fine, I don't share your view that he's an injury waiting to happen. His history isn't as bad as people like to assume, and the guy who pitched last night is as healthy as ever. I would say his injury history dfinitely factors into any long-range planning, but I wouldn't factor it into what will happen in the next couple weeks.
Duvall was fun for a couple of weeks, but once Story is back(and I’m very optimistic that he’ll still play a great shortstop), trade Duval for a lottery ticket. Kike/Duran can handle center. Kike has also always seems like a solid veteran presence. Especially for fashion advice.
I would do this….. but Duvall has always been streaky and could easily play a role similar to Dalbec in ‘21 riding a hot hand.
regarding Paxton- personally I think they’re still in it and shouldn’t sell him… but he’s not the type you sign an extension with. I’d guess someone wil offer 3/$25per. I’d rather give that to Montgomery (probably will go for $22per IMO) and also get Yamamoto. Offer Paxton the QO and getthe draft pick. Thank him for making ‘23 a surprising good playoff run
Well, here’s where Bloom needs to earn his check. If Paxton will resign for 2/$50 plus a vesting option, we should probably do that. If Paxton (perhaps along with Duvall) will return a haul from (say) the Reds’ stacked farm system, maybe that’s the move. BTV is hardly gospel, but it doesn't buy that Paxton or even Paxton+Duvall is really bringing back an amazing package.
We can speculate about what extension he might accept or what he’d return in trade, but it’s up to the FO to actually work the phones and figure out where the market is.
We can speculate about what extension he might accept or what he’d return in trade, but it’s up to the FO to actually work the phones and figure out where the market is.
I've been drinking, so I'll need to think this over more carefully. But when I read that, I thought, "My God, Nvalvo, have you been drinking?"
I have also been drinking, but I'd still offer him that deal. If we're forgoing a trade, the idea is to offer him something that he accepts mid-season. One pays retail in this scenario: this is basically a slightly richer version of the deal Eovaldi got from Texas — two years, with a vesting option for the third.
He's just given us about a WAR and a half in *50 innings.* So I'd envision something like $20, $20, and then a club option at $20m with a $10m buyout, making the overall deal for AAV purposes 2/$50. And the third year would vest if he throws, say, 125 IP in each of the first two seasons and doesn't finish the year on the IL, something like that.
We'll have plenty of money to spend over the next few years, a ton of young players to promote, and veteran aces are scarce. Plus, he just did us a massive favor by picking up the $4m option.
I'd wait a bit longer before offering him a big deal. I'd like to see him string together some consecutive starts where he goes deep before offering him that kind of money. It is still early on his road back. I may have been naive, but I was thinking we could sign him for $10-$15/year for 2-3 years. I don't want to see another mistake along the lines of Sale's extension.
How many consecutive starts where he goes deep is enough of a string? Not being snarky. Right now, he's gone 6+ in four of his last five starts. The fifth being one where he was at 63 pitches through four innings (so on pace for 6+) before he left early with knee soreness that clearly didn't linger or affect his next start. Five probably isn't enough to convince anyone. I'm curious what would be.
I don't think we should be concerned about another Sale extension situation here. Paxton is 34. No one's giving him a 4-5 year deal. The AAV can be debated, but I think two years plus an option is likely what Paxton is going to get. My guess is the sooner the Sox offer it, the lower the dollar amount he'd take is likely to be.