Sure, but I'm talking about NCAA baseball players.Guys in football and basketball are getting six figure signing bonuses while it's illegal, so...
Sure, but I'm talking about NCAA baseball players.Guys in football and basketball are getting six figure signing bonuses while it's illegal, so...
I think there is a real chance one of the guys who seems to be Locked In to the Top three will drop. Happens far too often to eliminate that possibilityI'm curious, who?
If this were football or basketball maybe but practically no one outside of hardcore baseball fans knows any college players so I don‘t think a Jack Leiter or Kumar Rocker would be rolling in endorsement money. I could see a situation in the future where the next Zion stays a year to avoid being drafted by the Magic or whomever with the comfort of a huge shoe deal.Does anyone think that NCAA athletes being able to make money will have an impact on any draftees?
Oh, sure. I’m not interested in setting up all the possibilities of the draft, just this particular scenario, since it hasnt been gamed out despite being both worst case for the Sox. I’m pretty sure Mayer goes really early and if either Lieter or Davis are there, the Sox will take them.I think there is a real chance one of the guys who seems to be Locked In to the Top three will drop. Happens far too often to eliminate that possibility
I'm sure it will happen, but how long can that go on though? The next season odds are another crappy team is picking at the top.If this were football or basketball maybe but practically no one outside of hardcore baseball fans knows any college players so I don‘t think a Jack Leiter or Kumar Rocker would be rolling in endorsement money. I could see a situation in the future where the next Zion stays a year to avoid being drafted by the Magic or whomever with the comfort of a huge shoe deal.
Locally these guys can make a ton. If you’ve ever been to an SEC or Big 12 town, you’d know these guys are treated like rock stars. Local businesses will jump at the chance to use these players.If this were football or basketball maybe but practically no one outside of hardcore baseball fans knows any college players so I don‘t think a Jack Leiter or Kumar Rocker would be rolling in endorsement money. I could see a situation in the future where the next Zion stays a year to avoid being drafted by the Magic or whomever with the comfort of a huge shoe deal.
I choose Jobe for these very reasons. If he agrees to sign under slot before the draft I think is the way they go allowing them to go over slot at 40. I also like Madden as well, and would add Bednar as solid safe picks, but i doubt either would sign under slot. There is an outside chance Bednar could be available at 40, but a more likely prospect to be there would be Jaden Hill who would have gone top 5 if not for the TJ surgery. If Sox confident in a recovery, this is a guy they could use the saved money on at 40.If Leiter is not available then Jobe should be the pick, a ton of upside and the potential to be the best arm in the draft plus it will save money (over Rocker) so they can get another high upside guy later in the draft. I also really like Ty Madden, he seems like a safe bet to be a solid arm (big Texans who throw hard seem to work out well).
As good as Davis is, I’m always terrified of drafting a catcher that early. He probably is the best college bat in the draft though.
A draft that results in Jobe and Hill would be the best possible outcome IMOI choose Jobe for these very reasons. If he agrees to sign under slot before the draft I think is the way they go allowing them to go over slot at 40. I also like Madden as well, and would add Bednar as solid safe picks, but i doubt either would sign under slot. There is an outside chance Bednar could be available at 40, but a more likely prospect to be there would be Jaden Hill who would have gone top 5 if not for the TJ surgery. If Sox confident in a recovery, this is a guy they could use the saved money on at 40.
We should be thrilled if that happens. If he's anything close to Posey that's probably a top 5% outcome.I'm starting to warm up to the idea of Henry Davis at #4 if Leiter isn't there. If he turns into Buster Posey, I'm more than OK with that.
The Jobe comments were really interesting. 3100 RPM slider? That's almost unheard of.Draft preview/Kiley McDaniel interview starts at the 1:00:00 mark
A top 10 catcher all time is closer to a 0.1% outcome, even for a top-of-the-draft pick.We should be thrilled if that happens. If he's anything close to Posey that's probably a top 5% outcome.
Yes you're correct. I was probably too conservative in my percentile outcome estimate.A top 10 catcher all time is closer to a 0.1% outcome, even for a top-of-the-draft pick.
The most likely outcome of any Top 5 pick is a complete bust. The second most likely outcome a league average output for a handful of seasons.When they say .265/25 HR guy are they talking his most likely outcome or his ceiling? If that's his most likely outcome I can deal with that at 4. If they're talking ceiling then I'd be much less excited about him.
Yeah, unless they think Jobe is the next Kershaw, I'd much prefer they go pretty much any other route. If he's throwing that kind of slider at his age, I've got real concerns about how his arm is going to hold up.The Jobe comments were really interesting. 3100 RPM slider? That's almost unheard of.
High school pitchers are so risky but he could be the guy who everyone kicks themselves for passing over in a few years.
In a year in which shortstop Jordan Lawlar is one of the top high school prospects in the draft — a likely consideration for the Red Sox with the No. 4 overall pick — it’s hard for Brandon Agamennone to avoid playing the what-if game.
Agamennone scouted North Texas and North Louisiana for the Red Sox from 2016 through 2020. He was credited as the signing scout for some prominent picks, including 2018 third-rounder Durbin Feltman and 2017 fifth-rounder Alex Scherff, both now in Double A Portland’s bullpen.
But Agamennone never was the signing scout for a first-rounder with the Red Sox, and he won’t get an opportunity to do so this year. Agamennone said that he informed the Red Sox last September that he’d be unable to continue scouting due to a family medical situation.
Lawlar, who played at Dallas Jesuit High School, had been on Agamennone’s radar since his freshman year. From that early age, Lawlar separated himself in every aspect of the game.
“His glove was very refined for that age. Just really good hands, he moved well laterally, and obviously the bat — he just had, for his peer group, power above and beyond what you normally see for a 14-year-old,” said Agamennone. “And it was consistent. That’s the big thing.”
In a strong baseball region, Lawlar dominated throughout his high school career. He hit .409/.534/.864 as a freshman, .485/.561/.848 in his pandemic-shortened sophomore season, and .425/.552/.713 with 27 steals this year.
Agamennone detailed the components of his evaluation of Lawlar using the 20-to-80 scouting scale, in which 50 represents a major league-average tool, 55 is above-average, 60 is plus, and anything above that is elite. For the former Red Sox scout, Lawlar projected to have a 55 or 60 hit tool in the big leagues, 60 power, 65 or 70 fielding skills, a 60 arm, and possible 70 speed.
“When you’re grading him out, you’re looking at probably a cumulative 65 grade on future grades on this guy,” said Agamennone. “I think he’s gonna be a superstar.”
If we end up taking a player who eventually contributes to the big league team, that would be a big win.Hall of Famers Barry Larkin and Dave Winfield were fourth overall picks, but more recently — in consecutive years — so were Adam Loewen, Tim Staffer and Jeff Niemann (big league pitchers, but hardly franchise-altering talents). In 56 years, only five No. 4 picks have amassed at least 40 bWAR in their careers, and the most recent of those was Kevin Brown in 1986.
In the past quarter-century, teams drafting No. 4 have had success with high school phenoms (Kerry Wood, Gavin Floyd, Dmitri Young) and proven college performers (Ryan Zimmerman, Alex Fernandez, Kevin Gausman), but returns have been uneven and often fleeting. In the past 15 years, most No. 4 picks have been largely forgettable, and one of them — Riley Pint, from the 2016 draft — has already retired without rising above A ball. Even this high in the draft, there is no sure thing, nor a foolproof strategy.
Yes but this is true for any draft pick. It's kinda stupid for Jennings to use that 40 bWAR threshold because basically no draft picks hit that threshold. By comparison, only five number one picks have hit that threshold. The real difference between #1 and #4 is that it's much easier to get a guy at #1 that will at least be a solid, long-term MLB starter than it is at #4. (For example, Delmon Young is largely considered something of a bust for a #1 pick but getting a player of that caliber at #4 would actually be a slightly above-average result.)Some perspective from the Athletic:
https://theathletic.com/2692158/2021/07/08/red-sox-2021-mlb-draft-preview-four-paths-they-could-take-with-the-no-4-pick/
If we end up taking a player who eventually contributes to the big league team, that would be a big win.
Is this where I get to ask the question frequently posed: Why can’t MLB teams trade draft picks?? Can you imagine how exciting it’d be right now if the Sox were engaged in trade talks that might include the #4 pick? Does that get us Scherzer?!Yes but this is true for any draft pick. It's kinda stupid for Jennings to use that 40 bWAR threshold because basically no draft picks hit that threshold. By comparison, only five number one picks have hit that threshold. The real difference between #1 and #4 is that it's much easier to get a guy at #1 that will at least be a solid, long-term MLB starter than it is at #4. (For example, Delmon Young is largely considered something of a bust for a #1 pick but getting a player of that caliber at #4 would actually be a slightly above-average result.)
Because it’s not in the CBA, and any item the players ask to add the owners asked them to give something up. Any item the owners ask to add the players ask for them to give something up. No one is going to give anything up to allow trading of draft picks. In a perfect world changes could be made to the CBA that improve the game.Is this where I get to ask the question frequently posed: Why can’t MLB teams trade draft picks?? Can you imagine how exciting it’d be right now if the Sox were engaged in trade talks that might include the #4 pick? Does that get us Scherzer?!
At this point, I’d be ok with any one of the consensus top 6 or so picks. We’ll be able to talk ourselves into this guy’s closeness to MLB, or that guy’s ceiling. I just don’t want us taking another Yorke so that we can pay more to get the #24 guy in the 2d and #45 guy in the third. I need the illusion that THIS #4 pick is gonna be the guy who makes it and puts up a career 40+ WAR. That’s going to be harder if every “expert” had him rated #16 or lower.
Is this where I get to ask the question frequently posed: Why can’t MLB teams trade draft picks?? Can you imagine how exciting it’d be right now if the Sox were engaged in trade talks that might include the #4 pick? Does that get us Scherzer?!
At this point, I’d be ok with any one of the consensus top 6 or so picks. We’ll be able to talk ourselves into this guy’s closeness to MLB, or that guy’s ceiling. I just don’t want us taking another Yorke so that we can pay more to get the #24 guy in the 2d and #45 guy in the third. I need the illusion that THIS #4 pick is gonna be the guy who makes it and puts up a career 40+ WAR. That’s going to be harder if every “expert” had him rated #16 or lower.
Davis higher than Leiter huh? Interesting.Fangraphs says they will rank Mayer 50, Davis 51, Leiter 54, Watson 64, Lawlar 126
They currently have Casas 42, Downs 50, Duran 72
Got a link? Curious where they have Rocker.Fangraphs says they will rank Mayer 50, Davis 51, Leiter 54, Watson 64, Lawlar 126
They currently have Casas 42, Downs 50, Duran 72
Rocker wont be in their top ~130 or soGot a link? Curious where they have Rocker.
Future projection for the draft picks, but current ratings for guys already playing in the minor leagues?Fangraphs link
https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-mlb-draft/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0&filter=&team=&pos=&pg=0
MLB has top 8 in draft ranked at 60 overall on the 20-80 scale. I am a little confused because they only have the top 15 prospects in all of baseball at 60 or above. Casas, Downs, and Duran are all at 55. I can’t believe they would put the top 8 in this draft as part of the top 23 overall. I must be missing something.
MLB link
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/
We’ll, OK then, who do you have at 40?In that case, I'm taking Mayer.
You want me to spoil that pick, too? You're going to have to tune in.We’ll, OK then, who do you have at 40?