The AFC Playoff Picture (formerly Ranking the AFC)

RedOctober3829 · Oct 15, 2014

Contenders
1. Denver--offense isn't as powerful and unstoppable as last year, but defense is better. Clearly better than the next tier at the moment IMO. However, SD is right on their heels in the division.

2. SD/NE--we'll learn about SD next week when they go to Denver on a short week and we'll clearly know where the Patriots stand when they go into the bye after the Denver game. They have a tiebreaker with Cincinnati if need be. If they lose to Denver, it makes the Indy and SD games almost must-wins in order to get a bye.

3. Cin/Indy--I can't put both these teams in the 2nd tier until they go and beat someone up there.

Mediocre Teams
Cleveland
Baltimore
Pittsburgh
Kansas City
Houston
Miami
Buffalo

Pretenders
NY Jets
Tennessee
Oakland
Jacksonville

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Oct 15, 2014

1. Denver - I would take them over any other AFC team on a neutral field and its not really close.
2. San Diego - Super impressive start to the season but part of my doesn't full buy it.
3. NE - Way behind Denver still IMO and ahead of the next few teams only marginally.
4. KC - After from the opening day wtf loss to the Titans, this team has been really good for four weeks running. Close losses @DEN and @SF are not negatives IMO.
5, 6, 7. CIN, IND, BAL - I don't see much between these teams.
8+ - Non-factors in the playoff race, except maybe Buffalo.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Oct 15, 2014

I don't think you guys are giving nearly enough credit to KC. They gave SF and DEN all they could handle on the road and those are two of the best teams in football. They also killed us, as well know, and whipped Miami on the road. That's an impressive resume after the first week, certainly much more impressive than anything Cincinnati or Indianapolis or Baltimore has done.

glennhoffmania · Oct 15, 2014

I don't think Denver is as good as a lot of people think. I'm not so sure that SD isn't better. Denver has beaten two pretty good teams at home by a TD (Indy and KC), lost at Seattle, spanked AZ at home after knocking out their second string QB (and it was only a 4 point game after 3 quarters), and beat the Jets on the road but looking pretty mediocre for at least the first half in doing so. I'm not saying they aren't a good team, because they clearly are. I just think that some people may be jumping to conclusions about how dominant they are because when I've seen them play I don't get that sense.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Oct 15, 2014

tims4wins said:
You may be right about this. They go to SD this week, we will see how they compete. I expect another close loss, followed by home wins against the Rams and Jets. That gets them to 4-4 heading into Buffalo, which could be a crucial game for wild card purposes.

Their remaining schedule:
@ SD
vs. STL
vs. NYJ
@ Buf
vs. Sea
@ Oak
vs. Den
@ Ari
vs. Oak
@ Pit
vs. SD

At best I think they get to 9 wins, and I think 7 or 8 wins is far more likely.

Yup, their schedule is ridiculously tough and I wouldn't be surprised if they miss the playoffs. My ranking is based purely on impressions of team quality.

coremiller · Oct 15, 2014

One thing to note is that SD has played an extremely easy schedule. Their schedule is 31st by DVOA despite having played Seattle -- they've also played the Raiders, Jets, Jaguars, Bills, and Cardinals. Oak, NYJ, and JAX are probably 3 of the 5 worst teams in the league, and Arizona (w/Palmer) is the only one of those teams better than average -- not coincidentally, that was SD's only loss. I'd like to see them be tested a little more frequently before we conclude they're a true contender. We'll get to find out, too, as their schedule is horribly backloaded: their remaining schedule is #2 by DVOA as they still have Denver and KC twice plus Baltimore, SF and NE. Their five-game stretch to end the season is a brutal @BAL, NE, DEN, @SF, @KC.

dcmissle · Oct 15, 2014

This is like building sand castles at low tide, but more fun.

I think San Diego and Baltimore are very dangerous if they remain reasonably healthy.

Stitch01 · Oct 15, 2014

Just based on where the teams are today. Id be surprised if one of the top six didn't win the conference, but a little early to say where teams will shake out.

Clear leader
1) Den

Looking like contenders
2) SD
3) Indy
4) Cin
t5) NE/Bal

Not terrible
KC/Cle/Hou/Buf/Mia/Pit: Probably in that order, but think these teams are fairly similar

Bad
Tenn

Shitshows
NYJ/Oak/Jac

RedOctober3829 · Oct 15, 2014

Stitch01 said:
Just based on where the teams are today. Id be surprised if one of the top six didn't win the conference, but a little early to say where teams will shake out.

Clear leader
1) Den

Looking like contenders
2) SD
3) Indy
4) Cin
t5) NE/Bal

Not terrible
KC/Cle/Hou/Buf/Mia/Pit: Probably in that order, but think these teams are fairly similar

Bad
Tenn

Shitshows
NYJ/Oak/Jac

You don't put the Patriots above the Bengals even though they beat Cincinnati?

Kliq · Oct 15, 2014

1. Denver- I would like to say San Diego is better, but until we see them clash head to head, I don't feel comfortable doing that. I think the team does have some serious problems, and their defense isn't nearly as good as it was/is hyped up to be.

2. New England- The Patriots have been the best team in football over the last two weeks.

3. San Diego- Rivers has been tremendous already, but the quality of teams they have been facing isn't terrific and the injuries they have piled up on the O-Line is getting scary. I'm not sold on their defense at all, because when Derek Carr is lighting you up, think about what the passing attacks of Den/NE/Indy can do.

4. Indianapolis- See below.

5. Cincinnati- Andy Dalton hasn't played bad this season, but he just isn't the playmaker that Luck is. Statistically they may not be that different, but who would you rather have lead a two minute drill down by 5? Kind of sad to think that Cincy and Indy have pretty much equal defenses at this point.

6. Kansas City- Andy Reid is always going to be a polarizing figure on the bench, but this is a team that can control the clock, rush the passer, and win the turnover battle.

7. Baltimore- Up and down team, with Flacco having a career year so far. If John Harbaugh can figure out that Pierce isn't their best RB, they could be even better.

8. Houston- Similar to KC in that they can rush the passer and run the ball very well. Unfortunatly, they have a QB who turns the ball over frequently and often comically.

9- Pittsburgh- Offense is good but not great, their defense is very sporadic. That loss to Cleveland really puzzles me.

Everyone else sucks and doesn't deserve a playoff mention, except maybe Cleveland. I don't believe in Miami or Buffalo.

dcmissle · Oct 15, 2014

So Cleveland destroys Pittsburgh but is in the "everybody else sucks" category -- but Pittsburgh gets ranked?

Last team in their division and the only team with a negative point differential in the AFC North.

glennhoffmania · Oct 15, 2014

I know this is Pats territory, but I don't see how a team that looked pretty bad in half of its games can seriously be considered a top two team in the conference.

Stitch01 · Oct 15, 2014

No. Id probably have the Bengals 2nd if they had won that game, so they're being docked for it, but the head-to-head loss in that spot doesn't mean I auto have the Bengals ahead of NE.

I don't think there's a lot of difference though (betting market has CIN/NE/BALT within less than a half point of each other, which seems right)

I almost tiered SD/Indy and then lumped the other three together but I thought it would overstate the gap between 2 and 5.

EDIT: To RedOctober, sorry, forgot to hit post.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Oct 15, 2014

I'm surprised by the consensus ranking of CIN here. They've just given up 80 points and 350+ yards on the ground in the last two weeks; I have no idea what is causing it but until they get it fixed, it's hard to see them as a contender.

Rustjive · Oct 15, 2014

Stitch01 said:
(betting market has CIN/NE/BALT within less than a half point of each other, which seems right)

While "To Win the AFC Championship" futures aren't answering the exact same question as a pure ranking, Pinny has odds as such:

DEN 2.55:1
NE 6:1
SDG 6.25:1
IND 8.5:1
CIN 9:1
BAL 13:1
CLE 31:1

Stitch01 · Oct 15, 2014

Im looking at inpredictable. Id have Pats either 2nd or 3rd to win the conference.

mauf · Oct 15, 2014

1. Denver. They're the defending champs, and the OT loss in Seattle is the only blemish on their record. Easy pick.

2. San Diego. Wish I could figure out why DVOA doesn't love them, as they seem like the clear pick here to me.

3. Indianapolis. After two early losses to contenders, they are on a roll and the schedule is a cakewalk. Likely to secure a first-round bye.

4. Baltimore. The hallmark of a good team isn't winning close games; it's beating the hell out of inferior competition. The Ravens have done this.

5. Cincinnati. They've played well aside from the Pats' game and pocketed a Week 1 win @BAL -- winning the Week 7 return engagement woudld give them an inside track in the division.

6. New England. FO says they have high variance. Sounds right to me. The tough second-half schedule is going to expose them.

7. Kansas City. Like the Pats, a team with high variance (in stark contrast to last year, when they were highly consistent). Tough division means they'll be on the outside looking in come playoff time.

8. Cleveland. Four of their five games have been decided by one score (the exception being a convincing home win against the lowly Steelers), so they belong right in the middle of the rankings.

9. Buffalo. They didn't play well against the Pats, but the Bills have a stout D, and Orton is something less than a train wreck as QB. They're the Pats' closest competition in what's shaping up to be a pathetic division.

10. Houston. A worse than mediocre team that will post a respectable record against weak competition.

11. Miami. Advanced metrics say they should be rated higher than this, and I didn't see the GB game last week. But I can't wrap my head around the notion that the Fins' offense has been league average (which is what DVOA says). I'm less certain of this ranking than of any other.

12. Pittsburgh. As a Steelers' fan, it's hard to believe there are four teams in the AFC worse than us.

13. Oakland. I might be putting too much stock in their respectable showing vs SD, but they might not be the same team they were before the coaching change.

14. NY Jets. They have more talent than this. The team has quit on Rex.

15. Tennessee. I liked the Whisenhunt hire, but he's got nothing to work with.

16. Jacksonville. I know they're taking the long view, but there are no signs of progress. Gus Bradley's seat should be warming up.

snowmanny · Oct 15, 2014

538 Elo Ratings

1. Denver
2. NE
3. SD
4. Indi
5. Cin
6. Bal
7. KC
8. Pitt
9. Buf
10. Mia
11.Cle
12.Ten
13.Hou
14.NYJ
15.Oak
16.Jax

TomTerrific · Oct 15, 2014

Is there any kind of prior in their ELO ratings, or is it just based on this year? I'm surprised it's this high.

snowmanny · Oct 15, 2014

They do include results from last year, and those results carry less weight each week. And in fact it probably makes sense to include them in one's analysis: if you had been away from football for fifteen years including last year and watched all the games this year where would you rank the Seahawks?

TomTerrific · Oct 15, 2014

snowmanny said:
They do include results from last year, and those results carry less weight each week. And in fact it probably makes sense to include them in one's analysis: if you had been away from football for fifteen years including last year and watched all the games this year where would you rank the Seahawks?

As a committed Bayesian, no disagreement here. I was just wondering (and was frankly too lazy to look it up myself while posting from the bar)

ivanvamp · Oct 16, 2014

I think the overall resume favors SD and Denver. But if you look at the improvements teams have made and where they are *NOW*, I think NE has to be right in the conversation. The last two weeks this team has come out and absolutely crushed quality opposition. Beating two division leaders - one at home against a previously undefeated team, and the other on the road against a first place team and division rival.

The defense has been terrific these past two games, giving up just 19.5 points and 328 yards per game. Meanwhile, the Patriots have scored 40.0 points and have gained 450.5 yards per game. Brady has looked unstoppable. Gronk is getting healthier and better.

I know the injuries to Ridley, Mayo, and Connelly will impact this team, but everyone is going to have some of those.

Right now, the Pats have to be in the conversation for best team in the conference. I wouldn't favor them over SD or Den at a neutral site right now, but if they have to go through both of those teams, they will get at least one of them at home (NE wins the division, SD or Den is a WC team, so NE automatically would host the WC team).

Stitch01 · Oct 16, 2014

They're in the conversation, and they have a track record of improving throughout the year, but as of now the overall resume favors Denver, SD, and Indy and its hard to argue the Pats are much better than Baltimore and the Bengals.

Devizier · Oct 16, 2014

1) Denver is the best until proven otherwise.
2) San Diego is not far behind, but I wonder about their depth.

3-6) after that, it's pick 'em between the Patriots, Indianapolis, Baltimore, and Cincinnati.

7) Kansas City
8) Cleveland
9) Buffalo
10) Miami
11) Houston
12) Pittsburgh. Getting old in a hurry.
13) New York
14) Tennessee
15) Oakland

100) Jacksonville

OCST · Oct 16, 2014

I'm all-in on the Browns. I think they win that division and get a home playoff game. I agree that you can't rank them above BAL or CIN right now, but I think the Bengals are trending downward and I'm not sold on the Ravens.

Stitch01 · Oct 16, 2014

Losing that game against Baltimore that they really should have won hurts them. Otherwise they'd likely be on the road to 7-1. I think the defense is pretty bad and the offense is going to regress, but they'll be in the playoff hunt.

DJnVa · Oct 16, 2014

maufman said:
5. Cincinnati. They've played well aside from the Pats' game and pocketed a Week 1 win @BAL -- winning the Week 7 return engagement woudld give them an inside track in the division.

They just gave up 37 points to the Panthers who average less than 21 points a game outside of the Bengals game.

j-man · Oct 16, 2014

1 Den - if they get Home Field idk who can beat them @ home outside of weather San diego
2 SD INJ and Sch will catch up to this team they are peaking right now
3 Indy Ne is better but Indy has a soft sch that leads to 12 W
4 NE they match up well with den but SD INDY Balt could give them lots of plom
5 Balt they are a underrated team but don't trust them in a big spot
6 Ciny i almost put houton here this team looks like 9-7
7 Hou if they had a good QB could go all the way
8 KC lack of death plus ave qb = 8-9 wins
9 cle could make a move into the 6 spot in time
10 Buff Bad QB should win 7
11 Mia overrated and soft
12 Tenn a mess they need a new qb
13 Oak will win 3 games maybe 4
14 pitt its over pitt time to rebuild
15 NYJ seem to only care about beating ne
16 Jax dont know how to win yet

RedOctober3829 · Oct 19, 2014

Heading into SNF, here's the playoff seedings.

1. Denver 4-1
2. Indy 5-2 -better conference record than NE/Bal
3. New England 5-2--better conference record than Bal
4. Baltimore 5-2
5. San Diego 5-2
6. Cincinnati 3-2-1

Needless to say, the Denver/Indy/SD games are the biggest ones left.

Stitch01 · Oct 19, 2014

Den, Indy, SD, Balt, NE, Cin for me.

RedOctober3829 · Oct 20, 2014

1. Denver
t-2. Indy, NE
4. Baltimore
5. Kansas City
6. SD
7. Cincinnati
8. Buffalo

kolbitr · Oct 20, 2014

RedOctober3829 said:
1. Denver
t-2. Indy, NE
4. Baltimore
5. Kansas City
6. SD
7. Cincinnati
8. Buffalo

It will be interesting to see where Buffalo is in two weeks or so. They won yesterday, but that was a very ugly win, and although Watkins looks very good, they just lost Spiller and Jackson indefinitely. I know that Spiller has been a nearly forgotten man much of the year, so perhaps this isn't as significant as it seems, but the injuries are mounting.

Also, Miami should get some consideration, no? They've been very inconsistent, but they nearly beat GB and won against Chicago, looking good. If there were trend markers, Cincinnati's is clearly trending downward, Miami is upward, Buffalo sideways.

sodenj5 · Oct 20, 2014

kolbitr said:
Also, Miami should get some consideration, no? They've been very inconsistent, but they nearly beat GB and won against Chicago, looking good. If there were trend markers, Cincinnati's is clearly trending downward, Miami is upward, Buffalo sideways.

I think the next two weeks will be telling for Miami. @Jacksonville and home against SD. Jacksonville has the classic makings of a trap game. Coming off a win in Chicago and with a big matchup against SD looming, Miami needs to handle Jacksonville. I feel like they matchup well vs. San Diego too. They need to stop barely losing against good teams and start winning.

ivanvamp · Oct 20, 2014

Denver

New England
San Diego
Indy
Baltimore

Cincinnati

Buffalo
Houston

Pittsburgh
Miami

Cleveland
Kansas City

Tennessee
NY Jets

Oakland
Jacksonville

RedOctober3829 · Oct 20, 2014

Let's not crown Denver just yet, folks. Yes, they looked great last night but look who SF was missing on defense. Patrick Willis, Aldon Smith, NaVorro Bowman, and Jimmie Ward. Trumaine Brock was playing his first game since Week 1. Beating that version of SF last night isn't exactly a great accomplishment. In fact, if Denver hadn't done that last night it would have been a disappointment for them.

Denver is the best team in the AFC, but they aren't this unbeatable machine that some in the media now claim they are.

DJnVa · Oct 20, 2014

RedOctober3829 said:
Let's not crown Denver just yet, folks. Yes, they looked great last night but look who SF was missing on defense. Patrick Willis, Aldon Smith, NaVorro Bowman, and Jimmie Ward. Trumaine Brock was playing his first game since Week 1. Beating that version of SF last night isn't exactly a great accomplishment. In fact, if Denver hadn't done that last night it would have been a disappointment for them.

Denver is the best team in the AFC, but they aren't this unbeatable machine that some in the media now claim they are.

Of course. Most of us are fans of a 16-0 team, so we know the games have to be played.

But this thread would be kind of useless if we didn't it on what we see now.

Stitch01 · Oct 20, 2014

Denver isn't unbeatable, but they are clearly better than every other AFC team at this point in time.

Denver

Indy

SD
Balt
NE
Cin

KC
Buf

Hou

Cle
Mia

Pitt
Tenn

NYJ

Jacksonville

oak

Oppo · Oct 20, 2014

Curious to hear why SD is better than KC after KC just won in SD

mauf · Oct 20, 2014

Because the Chargers are 5-2, whereas the Chiefs are 3-3 and have been one of the league's most inconsistent teams.

You are putting entirely too much stock in a single game that was decided by less than a touchdown.

Oppo · Oct 20, 2014

KC lost week 1 to Ten, lost @ Den by 7 and @ SF by 5. KC beat NE and won @ Mia and SD.

SD lost @ Arz and at home against KC. SD has beaten Sea at home plus Buf, NYJ, Jax, and Oak.

I think they're close, but I'll take KC today. If SD beats Den next week, I'll be impressed.

Oppo · Oct 20, 2014

Not trying to be argumentative, just wanted to hear the reasoning as I believe 5 of the 7 rankings after yesterday had SD above KC.

Stitch01 · Oct 20, 2014

I can't really find a metric that places KC above SD but I'm open to learning about one.

Stitch01 · Oct 20, 2014

Yeah, they'll be closer this week but think SD still up

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