The AFC Playoff Picture (formerly Ranking the AFC)
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yes see his post. I dont understand Stich's thinking though. If you move Miami up after beating San Diego at home why not move the Pats up after beating the Broncos at home?FL4WL3SS said:
He is being true to his word before the game -- if Pats win, Broncos still first. I'm trying to be consistent too -- just as I marked the Colts down last week, I have to mark Denver down this week. But either way, both are tightly bunched at the top.richgedman'sghost said:
There is a huge HFA in the games between these two. The outcome of the AFC Championship game could easily be decided in the next 8 weeks.
I'd put the Pats number 1 for now, but only temporarily. To me, the challenge is the schedule. Denver's schedule has a few more cupcakes than the Pats remaining schedule. It's always impossible to predict these things (an injury to Gronk, weather, etc), but:
Pats (7-2)
10 Sun, Nov 9 BYE
11 Sun, Nov 16 @ Indianapolis
12 Sun, Nov 23 vs Detroit
13 Sun, Nov 30 @ Green Bay
14 Sun, Dec 7 @ San Diego
15 Sun, Dec 14 vs Miami
16 Sun, Dec 21 @ New York
17 Sun, Dec 28 vs Buffalo
Broncos (6-2)
10 Sun, Nov 9 @ Oakland
11 Sun, Nov 16 @ St. Louis
12 Sun, Nov 23 vs Miami
13 Sun, Nov 30 @ Kansas City
14 Sun, Dec 7 vs Buffalo
15 Sun, Dec 14 @ San Diego
16 Mon, Dec 22 @ Cincinnati
17 Sun, Dec 28 vs Oakland
For the Pats, the 2 trips to Green Bay and San Diego are obviously critical. I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop 1 or both of these games. Pats really need to take care of business against SD, who Denver handled last week. The Lions at home will be difficult as well (good pass defense and pass rush). I can see the Pats winning the remaining games (no reason to lose to Miami in Foxboro in December) to put them at 13-3 or 12-4.
For the Broncos, they've got 2 gimmes vs Oakland. The 2 critical games to watch are @ St. Louis (who have been playing pretty tough lately), and @ Kansas City. We need Denver to drop at least 1 of these...hopefully both. Other than those 2, I don't see how Denver drops any others, particularly with how much they kicked San Diego's ass. Cincinnati is tough at home, but I don't see Dalton putting up the points to match Manning. I see Denver likely falling at 13-3 or 14-2. Hope I am wrong.
Pats (7-2)
10 Sun, Nov 9 BYE
11 Sun, Nov 16 @ Indianapolis
12 Sun, Nov 23 vs Detroit
13 Sun, Nov 30 @ Green Bay
14 Sun, Dec 7 @ San Diego
15 Sun, Dec 14 vs Miami
16 Sun, Dec 21 @ New York
17 Sun, Dec 28 vs Buffalo
Broncos (6-2)
10 Sun, Nov 9 @ Oakland
11 Sun, Nov 16 @ St. Louis
12 Sun, Nov 23 vs Miami
13 Sun, Nov 30 @ Kansas City
14 Sun, Dec 7 vs Buffalo
15 Sun, Dec 14 @ San Diego
16 Mon, Dec 22 @ Cincinnati
17 Sun, Dec 28 vs Oakland
For the Pats, the 2 trips to Green Bay and San Diego are obviously critical. I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop 1 or both of these games. Pats really need to take care of business against SD, who Denver handled last week. The Lions at home will be difficult as well (good pass defense and pass rush). I can see the Pats winning the remaining games (no reason to lose to Miami in Foxboro in December) to put them at 13-3 or 12-4.
For the Broncos, they've got 2 gimmes vs Oakland. The 2 critical games to watch are @ St. Louis (who have been playing pretty tough lately), and @ Kansas City. We need Denver to drop at least 1 of these...hopefully both. Other than those 2, I don't see how Denver drops any others, particularly with how much they kicked San Diego's ass. Cincinnati is tough at home, but I don't see Dalton putting up the points to match Manning. I see Denver likely falling at 13-3 or 14-2. Hope I am wrong.
yea it is. Cincinnati is a fine team but I'd be shocked if they were able to beat Denver anywhere. Denver is better in every aspect, with an obviously ridiculous advantage in qb.Mystic Merlin said:
Cincinnati is an afterthought in the same way mid decade KC / Balt / Jacksonville were until they get a quarterback. Dalton is blah, especially with Green out.
Denver has some losable games on there, but I think worst case scenario on there is 12-4.
Thank god they're playing Detroit at home. That's a bad matchup for the Pats. Their biggest issues are @ GB and @ SD, but these are definitely teams the Pats should beat.
The Miami game is no pushover either.
As I said this week, it's Denver/NE and everybody else. Today showed that. Indy's D got exposed last week. That game will be tough, but coming off a bye I trust Bill. The key games are at GB and SD. It's a week to week league so don't get too high or too low after each game. It's going to be real difficult to hold onto #1 for sure.
As I said this week, it's Denver/NE and everybody else. Today showed that. Indy's D got exposed last week. That game will be tough, but coming off a bye I trust Bill. The key games are at GB and SD. It's a week to week league so don't get too high or too low after each game. It's going to be real difficult to hold onto #1 for sure.
I mean, CIN has a ton of talent, and playing in CIN in December is a tall task. Denver is clearly a better team, but venue and conditions matter.
Mystic Merlin said:
Additionally, Cincy hasn't lost at home since the 2012 season. Sure, they have a tie at home this year, but their record is meaningful with respect to MM's last point.
The Chargers, sitting in 11th place out of 16 in the AFC, get a lot of respect from some people on here. They are living off that Seattle win from Week 2. I would much rather play San Diego than go to St. Louis and play that defense. Unless San Diego suddenly develops a pass rush, there is no chance they can stop Brady and Gronk.
So much is at stake, it would not surprise me if one of these teams goes 13 -3, or even runs the table to 14 - 2.Ed Hillel said:
One of the Denver Post articles tonight begins,
"This changes everything."
The it goes on to note:
"If the road to the AFC is I-93, I-95 or Route 1, the Broncos will not be favorites as they were today."
And I think that is right. The Broncos carry pretty heft pychological baggage to Fox And, depending on the weather, some physical baggage too.
With the bye week, I feel pretty good about the visit to Indy. The visit to Green Bay concerns me the most.
I think Denver's played better games 1-9 than the Pats ... but I don't think New England's struggles weeks 1-4 really have anything to do with the team that's out there today. The OL has stabilized, Gronk is 100%, Brady is playing much better, and they've found some complementary pieces in LaFell and Wright. The defense has been mostly effective all year against lousy offenses, and today they got a big test and passed.
Markets had Denver like five point favorites on a neutral field going into this week and for sure won't move five points off of the Pats rolling in a great spot for New England. I understand ranking NE first, but lol at thinking putting Denver first is Felgeresque.riboflav said:
It would be one thing if the Pats won on the last possession and folks still thought Denver should be ranked higher. It's quite another when the home team wins by more than 3 scores and then they rank the Pats higher.
If you really want to use your neutral field example and after what you saw today, do you really think Denver beats the Pats by 5? NE won in all three phases and Manning threw for a bunch of yards after the game was decided. How does a neutral field change the score by 4 TD?
If you really want to use your neutral field example and after what you saw today, do you really think Denver beats the Pats by 5? NE won in all three phases and Manning threw for a bunch of yards after the game was decided. How does a neutral field change the score by 4 TD?
Stop with your even handed and thoughtful posting already. We get it. You're not a useless homer that we should all have pinked. But you just won't stop rubbing it in all our faces that you might have been wrong and it's driving us up a wall.Stitch01 said:
Edit: speaking of trolling...what's that below?
1. Denver - If they get to play in the playoffs on a neutral field (hopefully sunny and above 40 degrees with gentle southerly breezes), watch out. They're pretty good.
2. Indy - Hard to win in that dome. They are that good, trust me. Miller is Manning except when he throws his many interceptions then he's like Peyton.
3. Cin - Sure they lost to NE badly, but Stitch reminds us that this does not matter.
4. Balt. - A thorn in NE's side over the years. Hope the Patriots can avoid them in the playoffs.
5. Jets - Play the Patriots really well, after all. That narrow escape NE had a couple weeks ago speaks volumes, no?
6. Pitt - They're winning every game lately by multiple scores, so...
7. New England - Just squeak in here. Best point differential in NFL does not matter. Still cannot trust them. Perhaps they will play someone good someday.
8. Buffalo - Sure, they would be the 6th seed today, but the Patriots beat them in their house and Patriots cannot win on the road so they deserve to drop as a result.
9- 16 - Who cares
2. Indy - Hard to win in that dome. They are that good, trust me. Miller is Manning except when he throws his many interceptions then he's like Peyton.
3. Cin - Sure they lost to NE badly, but Stitch reminds us that this does not matter.
4. Balt. - A thorn in NE's side over the years. Hope the Patriots can avoid them in the playoffs.
5. Jets - Play the Patriots really well, after all. That narrow escape NE had a couple weeks ago speaks volumes, no?
6. Pitt - They're winning every game lately by multiple scores, so...
7. New England - Just squeak in here. Best point differential in NFL does not matter. Still cannot trust them. Perhaps they will play someone good someday.
8. Buffalo - Sure, they would be the 6th seed today, but the Patriots beat them in their house and Patriots cannot win on the road so they deserve to drop as a result.
9- 16 - Who cares
If he thought the gap between Denver and the rest was too large for a single game in October to fill, that's a pretty reasonable conclusion given their body of work compared to NE's. I thought today's performance coupled with the last few weeks was enough to throw the Miami and KC games out the door and take this as a different team, so I'd close the gap and probably put them slightly ahead of Denver. But he's hardly trolling and his posts were pretty fair and level-headed.
To rephrase: is performance over the last 4 games more or less predictive than performance over the last 8 games, even if the teams being compared played in the last 4? I don't know the answer, but it's not implausible to me that recent performance might tend to be overrated when rating teams.riboflav said:
E5 Yaz said:
Ebola in the Gatorade? ISIS in the locker-rooms? Rurik Jutting delivering pre-game meals to both teams?
I would tend to agree with you, absent an obvious explanation for why there might be such a difference in performance. But in this case, there are two huge factors contributing to the Patriots' improved play:SumnerH said:
1) Gronk is back to full Gronk mode,
2) The offensive line has settled.
For sure. There are even more obvious narratives (injured starting qb returns) that can override long term performance. It's the specific message I was responding to that I find odd (perhaps defensible, perhaps I misunderstood, but odd on its face as I read it).slamminsammya said:
Miami. The Dolphins have to win in Foxboro to be a threat for the division (they have another division loss already so Pats likely own tiebreak with a split) and Its probably not happening, the Dolphins are likely to drop a game or two elsewhere given schedule, and getting Denver here in the playoffs is a massive prize.E5 Yaz said:
1. New England - Yes that was a true butt-kicking. But we know it will be hard to win in Denver in January.
2. Denver - They played poorly. Will do better at home.
3. Pittsburgh - Huge win against Baltimore last night.
4. Kansas City - Solid team all the way around.
5. Cincinnati - Two straight, and leading a tough division.
6. Miami - Don't look now, but they've won 3 in a row.
- - - - -
Buffalo, Cleveland, Baltimore, San Diego
- - - - -
Houston
- - - - -
Tennessee
- - - - -
NY Jets
Oakland
By the way, suddenly NE has the 2nd best record in the NFL and the #1 point differential (+83) by a sizable margin.
2. Denver - They played poorly. Will do better at home.
3. Pittsburgh - Huge win against Baltimore last night.
4. Kansas City - Solid team all the way around.
5. Cincinnati - Two straight, and leading a tough division.
6. Miami - Don't look now, but they've won 3 in a row.
- - - - -
Buffalo, Cleveland, Baltimore, San Diego
- - - - -
Houston
- - - - -
Tennessee
- - - - -
NY Jets
Oakland
By the way, suddenly NE has the 2nd best record in the NFL and the #1 point differential (+83) by a sizable margin.
I'm interested in your rationale for having Indy so far above the Steelers. The Steelers destroyed them two weeks ago, and followed that up with the the decimination of another good team. I see them as very similar teams, and the Steelers dominated the H2H.Stitch01 said:I wish Indy didn't exist too. We'd have a better shot at a bye
This becomes a real mess after 3, no real conviction on where any of the next seven go
Denver
NE
Indy
Cin
Mia
Pitt
KC
SD
Balt
Buf
Clev
Hou
Tenn
NYJ
Oak
Still more sold on Indy's defense and not putting a lot of weight yet on the one really terrible performance by the Colts this season (they should have beat the Eagles and weren't horrible at Denver)MarcSullivaFan said:
Steelers are certainly playing very well right now, but Im not yet wiping their four poor performances away entirely at this point when ranking them. I dont move teams around that much based on one week.
I dont have a lot of conviction on where anyone below Indy stands, the AFC has a lot of good but flawed teams.
1. NE - Kicked Denver's ass. Healthy Gronk and upgrade with Revis and Browner show can probably beat Denver anywhere especially in Denver.
2. Denver - Defense exposed and to me this seems to be a front running defense
3. Pittsburgh - Clicking on offense and D is starting to come around
4. Indy - We will see if the Pittsburgh game was an aberration
5. Cincy - Looks to have righted the ship
6. KC - consistent under Reid
7. Miami
8. Buffalo
9. Baltimiore
10. San Diego
11. Cleveland
12. Houston
13. Tenn
14. Jax
15. NYJ
16. Oakland
2. Denver - Defense exposed and to me this seems to be a front running defense
3. Pittsburgh - Clicking on offense and D is starting to come around
4. Indy - We will see if the Pittsburgh game was an aberration
5. Cincy - Looks to have righted the ship
6. KC - consistent under Reid
7. Miami
8. Buffalo
9. Baltimiore
10. San Diego
11. Cleveland
12. Houston
13. Tenn
14. Jax
15. NYJ
16. Oakland
You are entirely too fixated on the line.
Do you really think a neutral field means the Patriots won't be able to use the scheme (offensive, defensive and ST schemes) they employed yesterday and win all three phases completely?
Honestly, you are saying a neutral field alters the outcome by 4 TD. That is insane given what we saw yesterday.
Do you really think a neutral field means the Patriots won't be able to use the scheme (offensive, defensive and ST schemes) they employed yesterday and win all three phases completely?
Honestly, you are saying a neutral field alters the outcome by 4 TD. That is insane given what we saw yesterday.
No, I don't think the Pats beat the Broncos 100% of the time on a neutral field nor do I think that if the teams played again tomorrow at Foxboro that we should expect the Pats to win by 22 points. Does that answer the question?
What do you think a fair expectation would be if the Pats played the Broncos on a neutral field tomorrow? Line or chances of the Pats winning? Id say the fair line is Denver by 1.5 or so.
My power ranking for the head-to head game played yesterday if it helps
1) NE
2) Denver.
What do you think a fair expectation would be if the Pats played the Broncos on a neutral field tomorrow? Line or chances of the Pats winning? Id say the fair line is Denver by 1.5 or so.
My power ranking for the head-to head game played yesterday if it helps
1) NE
2) Denver.
This looks pretty solid to me.jsinger121 said:
I was wrong about Denver being better than NE. As long as the Pats stay healthy, espceially GRONK, they are going to be tough to stop now. The D looks like it has all the pieces to match up with whatever the opposing team's strengths. The NE offense has developed into a multi-headed beast.
Don't know why people are taking runs at others here.
Who had the Cardinals at 7 and 1? Steeler fans several weeks ago were writing off the Steelers. Almost everyone liked San Diego.
The League is very fluid and likely to remain that way for the next few weeks. And even then, there is always the injury curse.
Who had the Cardinals at 7 and 1? Steeler fans several weeks ago were writing off the Steelers. Almost everyone liked San Diego.
The League is very fluid and likely to remain that way for the next few weeks. And even then, there is always the injury curse.
Stitch01 said:
On the other hand, I could not agree with you more that a fuckton is at stake on who has home field in an AFC Championship game between the Pats and Broncos, assuming those teams play in that game.
Every week now seems to matter quite a bit.