The Case for Optimism

[Super Nomario]

Yesterday's game bothered me in a way that the other losses this year didn't. It felt like they got outplayed on both sides of the ball, and it seems like the team is heading in the wrong direction.
 
But I started thinking about the recent Super Bowl winners - obviously the Ravens, Giants, and Packers weren't regular-season powerhouses. But they dealt with injuries during the season and were arguably stronger in the playoffs than they'd been in the regular season. The Ravens weathered injuries to Suggs, Lewis, and Webb, and through that figured out what they had in Kruger, Ellerbe, and Graham. The Giants' DL was hurt during the year but everyone was basically healthy for the playoffs. Rodgers missed some time but was back for the playoffs and led a great run.
 
So along those lines, here's the optimistic case for the Pats:
The secondary is getting healthy: it hasn't looked that way the past few weeks, but the secondary was the team's greatest strength through the first 6 weeks, and at times (such as the Denver game) since. Talib, Dennard, Arrington, and Gregory have all missed time, but all played nearly full loads yesterday. Talib was a full participant in Friday's practice; that was the first time since before the Saints game. Ryan and Harmon both stepped up and played well, so now the unit is pretty deep. Is it unthinkable that these guys will all be near-100% for the playoff run and go back to the strong form they showed early in the season?
 
Skill player health: the passing game was a disaster the first few weeks, minus Gronk, Amendola, and Vereen, and with the rookie WR struggling to integrate into the offense. Gronk is gone, but Amendola and Vereen are the healthiest they've been and are making big contributions. Edelman has emerged with more playing time. Dobson and Thompkins were seemingly improving week-by-week and figure to be healthy soon. Gronk is a huge loss, but the rest of the skill talent is a lot stronger than it was in his early-season absence.
 
Run D solution: Wilfork, Kelly, and Mayo aren't coming back, but the run D, leaving aside the Broncos game, has been much-improved since the bye. Carolina's backs had 16 carries for 41 yards, Houston's 25 for 115, Cleveland's 22 for 47, and Miami's 21 for 77. Siliga has emerged as a viable NT option and Sopoaga provides depth, which lets them use Chris Jones and Vellano in smaller roles. The run D is far from a strength, but it's improved from being a weakness that can be exploited at will.
 
#12: Brady's playing much better than he was in the early going; there looks to be little dropoff from his career peak. And his performance against Denver shows he can still sling it in cold weather, a key factor with the top seeds in the AFC from cold-weather cities and the SB in New York.
 
No one else is good: Seattle's the only complete team in the NFL and they play in the other conference.
 
There are still real questions / problems: none of the LB can cover, the pass rush goes MIA for long stretches, the O-line has been spotty, and Gronk's absence will hurt in the red zone. But going through this exercise makes me feel a little better. The Ravens / Giants / Packers didn't look like world-beaters heading into the playoffs, and their "putting it together" is only apparent in hindsight. The Pats could be in similar position.

 

[Stitch01]

Starts and ends with Brady as it has for years.  He's been great in the second half of the season, as long as he's in form and there's at least a skeleton crew on offense, there's a chance.
 
Need luck with health the rest of the way.  Your case for optimism is valid, but I fear they are one injury away on offense from the whole thing tumbling down.

 

[tims4wins]

The health of the O line is crucial. They need a healthy Solder and Cannon so the other guys can play in their more comfortable positions. Having Mankins play LT in the playoffs could be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

 

[ivanvamp]

Every team has flaws, even Seattle, who is, as you pointed out, the most complete team.  They are unbelievable at home, and very good away from home, but fortunately the Pats would play them away from Seattle.  And last year the Pats could (should!) have won in Seattle, so we know they can play with them.
 
Look, if Eli freaking Manning can win two Super Bowls, and the Colts' league-worst D in 2006 can suddenly pull off a miracle run of excellence, and Joe Flacco can be the greatest QB over a four week stretch, then yes, this Patriots team can win it all.  
 
Key #1:  Get a bye.  They'll have a much better chance as the #2 seed than the #3 seed.  First, they get a bye.  Duh, that's a free win.  Second, the get to rest up a week, and with a team as banged up as they are, that's huge.  Third, their first playoff game would be home, which they'd be favored to win, so odds are that they'd be in the AFCCG.  At that point, they have as good a shot as anyone.
 
Key #2:  Stay healthy.  Or get healthy.  Or just don't frickin' lose any more players to injury.  Get Thompkins and Dobson back and have a (relatively) complete receiving corps.  Get Solder healthy for the playoffs.  Let's see what this offense can do with all non-Gronk pistons firing.  
 
Key #3:  Keep Brady's jersey clean.  He's more than capable of going off, if he has time to throw.  The OL just needs to give him time to throw and the Pats will move the ball against anyone.
 
Key #4:  Get a couple of big turnovers.  Their D hasn't gotten many turnovers lately, and they really need to step up that part of their game.  Changes momentum, field position, everything.  The Giants got big turnovers during their last SB run, as did the Ravens.  It's of maximum importance.  You can allow some yards and points, but you have to get some huge stops, and turnovers are a great way to do it.
 
All four of these happen and the Patriots can absolutely win it all.  Will all four happen?  Not likely, but they have a puncher's chance for sure.

 

[Kliq]

Denver is the favorite in the AFC, and we beat them without Wilfork or Mayo, and with a banged up secondary. We can absolutley beat them again, especially if we don't get in a 24-0 hole. Once we get to the SB, anything can happen.

 

[ivanvamp]

Denver is the favorite in the AFC, and we beat them without Wilfork or Mayo, and with a banged up secondary. We can absolutley beat them again, especially if we don't get in a 24-0 hole. Once we get to the SB, anything can happen.

 
No doubt about it.  The problem is that last time the Pats played Denver, (1) NE was at home, (2) NE had Gronk (7 rec, 90 yds, 1 td), and Den did NOT have Julius Thomas (a matchup nightmare for everyone on NE except Talib, but then who covers Demariyus Thomas?).  
 
Not at all saying they couldn't beat Denver, because they can.  But the change in the TE position alone, never mind home field, changes things a lot.

 

[JokersWildJIMED]

It is very unlikely, but things would need to fall into place similar to 1996, where the match ups and timing worked out...if they get the bye, then optimism should reign, albeit slightly, as they probably will have won their last two games.  Cincy conceivably could fall to the #4, and cause match up difficulties for Denver.  If Miami gets in on a roll they could win RD 1 and go to Denver and cause problems as well. 

 

[ivanvamp]

It is very unlikely, but things would need to fall into place similar to 1996, where the match ups and timing worked out...if they get the bye, then optimism should reign, albeit slightly, as they probably will have won their last two games.  Cincy conceivably could fall to the #4, and cause match up difficulties for Denver.  If Miami gets in on a roll they could win RD 1 and go to Denver and cause problems as well. 

 
I wouldn't see Miami giving Denver any problems at all in Denver.  I think the Broncos would put up 40+ on that secondary.  Heck, with a banged up OL and receiving corps, and no Gronk, the Pats put up huge yards on Miami *in Miami*.  Imagine what a fully healthy Denver offense would do to that unit.  Yikes.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Reasons for Optimism
--If they get the #2 seed, the matchups would seem to be in favor over getting the 1 seed.  If Cincinnati ends up being the #3 seed and wins, I'd rather play them than either Indianapolis or Kansas City.  Denver lost to Indy and had 2 good battles with KC. 
 
--Amendola looked good yesterday.  Maybe he finally begins to put up big numbers.
 
--Dobson probably plays this week as he practiced on Friday.  He'll add a bigger target to the WR corps which would have helped yesterday.
 
--As others have stated, the secondary is getting healthier.
 
--Hightower is playing better of yet.

 

[DaughtersofDougMirabelli]

Yesterday's game bothered me in a way that the other losses this year didn't. It felt like they got outplayed on both sides of the ball, and it seems like the team is heading in the wrong direction.

 
I agree with a lot of what you said, except your very first line. I didn't think they got outplayed on either side of the ball. They had plenty of drives where they moved the ball at will, while Miami had to pull more out of their asses. They had more first downs, better 3rd down efficiency, more yards, higher Time of Possession, less penalties, and a lead at halftime.
 
They struggled in the red zone and didn't do a great job finishing. But to me they outplayed Miami and let this one get away (very much unlike their last 4 weeks where it felt like they were outplayed most of the game and they had to step up last minute to pull out a win). 

 

[BucketOBalls]

Reasons for optimism:  It is possible for other teams to suffer crippling injuries also.  Maybe it will balance out

 

[Super Nomario]

 
I agree with a lot of what you said, except your very first line. I didn't think they got outplayed on either side of the ball. They had plenty of drives where they moved the ball at will, while Miami had to pull more out of their asses. They had more first downs, better 3rd down efficiency, more yards, higher Time of Possession, less penalties, and a lead at halftime.
 
They struggled in the red zone and didn't do a great job finishing. But to me they outplayed Miami and let this one get away (very much unlike their last 4 weeks where it felt like they were outplayed most of the game and they had to step up last minute to pull out a win). 

Not to derail this too much, but I disagree. Much of what you see as a positive I see as a negative: they had long drives and high time of possession because they had to keep converting 3rd down after 3rd down to sustain drives, and it dried up as they got in the red zone. Miami putting up 24 points despite poor 3rd-down efficiency is a testament to how awful the Pats' D was - on their four scoring drives, they only faced four third-downs.

 

[DaughtersofDougMirabelli]

Not to derail this too much, but I disagree. Much of what you see as a positive I see as a negative: they had long drives and high time of possession because they had to keep converting 3rd down after 3rd down to sustain drives, and it dried up as they got in the red zone. Miami putting up 24 points despite poor 3rd-down efficiency is a testament to how awful the Pats' D was - on their four scoring drives, they only faced four third-downs.

 
Since when are long drives and time of possession a bad thing? They converted 3rd down after 3rd down to sustain drives, but many of those were 3rd and shorts, and they converted. They had 9 3rd downs and short (4 yards and under) and they converted 7 of them. They put themselves in good position to convert third downs while Miami had to succeed with the big play (which they did and NE defense couldn't tackle).

 

[Super Nomario]

 
Since when are long drives and time of possession a bad thing? They converted 3rd down after 3rd down to sustain drives, but many of those were 3rd and shorts, and they converted. They had 9 3rd downs and short (4 yards and under) and they converted 7 of them. They put themselves in good position to convert third downs while Miami had to succeed with the big play (which they did and NE defense couldn't tackle).

Not bad, just hollow. The Pats had four drives of 10+ plays; in total, those produced 6 points. Miami was more efficient.
 
EDIT: I think what we're really disagreeing on is the predictability of the team's respective red zone performances. There's some degree to which red zone performance is a little fluky (same with 3rd down performance) and some degree to which it is real. The Pats have real red zone deficiencies on both ends - their best receivers (Amendola, Edelman, Vereen) do their best work in space, and the D is as soft as marshmallow fluff. If the game had gone on twice as long, I think the Pats would have continued to kick field goals while Miami kept scoring TDs.

 

[DaughtersofDougMirabelli]

Not bad, just hollow. The Pats had four drives of 10+ plays; in total, those produced 6 points. Miami was more efficient.
 
EDIT: I think what we're really disagreeing on is the predictability of the team's respective red zone performances. There's some degree to which red zone performance is a little fluky (same with 3rd down performance) and some degree to which it is real. The Pats have real red zone deficiencies on both ends - their best receivers (Amendola, Edelman, Vereen) do their best work in space, and the D is as soft as marshmallow fluff. If the game had gone on twice as long, I think the Pats would have continued to kick field goals while Miami kept scoring TDs.

 
I completely agree with their red zone deficiency. With Gronk, Thompkins and Dobson out this is magnified ten fold. They don't have a single big body to throw the ball to, and it gets worse the closer they get to the endzone and the more clogged the field gets. I think the other facets of the game the Pats played well, obviously red zone deficiency is a major issue because if you kick field goals every time you'd have to score 3 times as much to keep up. Though this team did get into the endzone twice, so it's not like they were 0fer in the red zone. They need to look more to running the rock, and punching the ball in the endzone. Two drives stalled inside the 5, that can't happen. 

 

[FL4WL3SS]

We have a team that is on track for 11-5 or 12-4 and a first round bye and people need a thread with reasons for optimism? Yikes.

 

[bougrj1]

We have a team that is on track for 11-5 or 12-4 and a first round bye and people need a thread with reasons for optimism? Yikes.

No kidding - this is where I am. I think the Pats are good enough to win it all and have enough holes to go out in their first playoff game. I'm just hoping they can hang on to a bye... not having to play an extra game will be huge this year. Also, CBS had some stupid graphic up in pre-game on how the superbowl champ the last three years lost their week 15 game. So we've got that going for us... which is nice.

 

[Titoschew]

We have a team that is on track for 11-5 or 12-4 and a first round bye and people need a thread with reasons for optimism? Yikes.

 
Bingo.  Has anyone else seen the AFC?  Find a way to scratch out a bye and take your chances.

 

[RedOctober3829]

We have a team that is on track for 11-5 or 12-4 and a first round bye and people need a thread with reasons for optimism? Yikes.

I think people, such as myself, see so many holes in the damn that it's very tough to imagine them making a run.  They've been very fortunate this season pulling some wins from the jaws of defeat.  Can we expect that to continue?  Another reason why people are down on them is this: Patriots fans simply aren't used to the team losing games in December instead they almost always are going into the playoffs on a hot streak.  Personally, I was very upset by what I saw yesterday because it seems like the same old story on defense: can't get a stop when you need them to in a critical time.  Even in the Denver game, they let them tie the game up on the last drive.
 
Look, I am proud of what they've done with a skeleton group to this point.  I just keep thinking we are seeing the last few seasons of Tom Brady whistle away without winning another title despite chance after chance to do it.  I want to see him win his 4th ring more than anyone.  This year it's especially frustrating because if they were even a little bit more healthy they'd be the best team in the AFC.

 

[dcmissle]

I think people, such as myself, see so many holes in the damn that it's very tough to imagine them making a run.  They've been very fortunate this season pulling some wins from the jaws of defeat.  Can we expect that to continue?  Another reason why people are down on them is this: Patriots fans simply aren't used to the team losing games in December instead they almost always are going into the playoffs on a hot streak.  Personally, I was very upset by what I saw yesterday because it seems like the same old story on defense: can't get a stop when you need them to in a critical time.  Even in the Denver game, they let them tie the game up on the last drive.
 
Look, I am proud of what they've done with a skeleton group to this point.  I just keep thinking we are seeing the last few seasons of Tom Brady whistle away without winning another title despite chance after chance to do it.  I want to see him win his 4th ring more than anyone.  This year it's especially frustrating because if they were even a little bit more healthy they'd be the best team in the AFC.

 
This.  And part of me feels be careful what you wish for, for absent a weather related  Act of God, given two weeks of preparation, I think there is a good chance this crew would get murdered by the likes of Seattle.  I don't want to see that happen because nobody remembers the valiant story -- they remember the butchering in front of a couple of hundred million people.  Ask Elway.  This team does not deserve that.

 

[ivanvamp]

 
This.  And part of me feels be careful what you wish for, for absent a weather related  Act of God, given two weeks of preparation, I think there is a good chance this crew would get murdered by the likes of Seattle.  I don't want to see that happen because nobody remembers the valiant story -- they remember the butchering in front of a couple of hundred million people.  Ask Elway.  This team does not deserve that.

 
They might get murdered by Seattle.  And big caveat being that this year is not last year, but last year the Patriots went into Seattle - by far the toughest place to play in the league - and lost 24-23 despite out gaining Seattle 475-368.  
 
On a neutral field, the Patriots would stand a very real chance of winning that game, despite how things appear at the moment.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

I think people, such as myself, see so many holes in the damn that it's very tough to imagine them making a run.  They've been very fortunate this season pulling some wins from the jaws of defeat.  Can we expect that to continue?  Another reason why people are down on them is this: Patriots fans simply aren't used to the team losing games in December instead they almost always are going into the playoffs on a hot streak.  Personally, I was very upset by what I saw yesterday because it seems like the same old story on defense: can't get a stop when you need them to in a critical time.  Even in the Denver game, they let them tie the game up on the last drive.
 
Look, I am proud of what they've done with a skeleton group to this point.  I just keep thinking we are seeing the last few seasons of Tom Brady whistle away without winning another title despite chance after chance to do it.  I want to see him win his 4th ring more than anyone.  This year it's especially frustrating because if they were even a little bit more healthy they'd be the best team in the AFC.

 
I still don't get it.
 
Sure they're not the powerhouse team we've seen in the past going into the postseason at 14-2. Instead, they're now simply one of the favorites instead of THE favorite. I guess I just can't get worked up over the loss. Teams lose games, it happens. We're not used to it, that's the problem.

 

[Bellhorn]

I think people, such as myself, see so many holes in the damn that it's very tough to imagine them making a run.  They've been very fortunate this season pulling some wins from the jaws of defeat.  Can we expect that to continue? 

Sure, but one could have said exactly the same thing in 2003.

 

[tims4wins]

Sure, but one could have said exactly the same thing in 2003.

 
So true. That team had some U-G-L-Y wins. 9-3 vs. Cleveland comes to mind.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

The Dallas Cowboys thread is on top of this one right now. Spend 2 minutes reading about that boondoggle and you will feel much more optimistic about the Pats.  They have the right QB and the right coach.  A couple of fumbles bounce their way and they can beat any team in the NFL. 

 

[Bongorific]

 
This.  And part of me feels be careful what you wish for, for absent a weather related  Act of God, given two weeks of preparation, I think there is a good chance this crew would get murdered by the likes of Seattle.  I don't want to see that happen because nobody remembers the valiant story -- they remember the butchering in front of a couple of hundred million people.  Ask Elway.  This team does not deserve that.

This is ridiculous.

There isn't a single dominant team this year, Seattle included. They needed a Schaub brain fart to beat the Texans in OT, lost to the colts and banged up niners, and barely survived rams, titans, and bucs. That resume sounds not all that different than the Pats. I don't think the Patriots, in their current state, are as good as Seattle. But I'd give you seattle and take the field to win the Super Bowl every day of the week.

The nancying in this forum has been off the charts. Things aren't peachy right now and the Pats aren't the odds on favorite to win it all. They still have the best QB and coach combo in the league and have a chance to secure a bye. Would any of you really look Brady or Belichick in their beautiful and average face and tell them they don't have a shot?

 

[normstalls]

If the Pats win next Sunday I will feel A LOT better about the team and about a potential play-off run.
 
1) It would prove they can get a quality win on the road
2) Put them in the driver's seat for the 2 seed and the bye
 
I'm going to wait and see how next Sunday goes before feeling too optimistic or pessimistic
I feel like that is a huge game.

 

[Stitch01]

 
This.  And part of me feels be careful what you wish for, for absent a weather related  Act of God, given two weeks of preparation, I think there is a good chance this crew would get murdered by the likes of Seattle.  I don't want to see that happen because nobody remembers the valiant story -- they remember the butchering in front of a couple of hundred million people.  Ask Elway.  This team does not deserve that.

Given the biggest margin of defeat this year is 7 Im not really worried about being embarassed, but if you offered me a 1 in 100 chance of winning the Super Bowl and a 99% chance of losing 74-0, Id still rather go than not go.

 

[Stitch01]

Agree on the importance of next Sunday. A loss doesn't end the season but a win would go a long way to proving that this rag tag group has a decent chance at getting to Met Life in February. I mean, just look at 2006. That squad was completely undermanned, yet, they were 1 first down away from a SB birth. You just never know.

They'll probably need a game like the 2006 divisional where lots of things break right to do the same this year, but exactly, you never know. Most likely path is still home vs. a flawed team, @ Denver, neutral field in shitty weather vs. an NFC team.  Formidable, but doable with some breaks.

 

[Super Nomario]

We have a team that is on track for 11-5 or 12-4 and a first round bye and people need a thread with reasons for optimism? Yikes.

My concerns are less with where they are than with the direction they are heading. They are playing terrible football right now. The past three games they needed a fourth-quarter comeback (with two 50-yard FGs) to beat the team with the worst record in football, needed another fourth-quarter comeback (including a recovered onside kick and a dubious PI) to beat a 4-win Browns team at home, and lost to a .500 Dolphins team with a chance to lock up the division and put themselves in the driver's seat for the one seed. I'm happy with 10-4, but I am not happy with what I've seen from the team over the past few weeks.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

My concerns are less with where they are than with the direction they are heading. They are playing terrible football right now. The past three games they needed a fourth-quarter comeback (with two 50-yard FGs) to beat the team with the worst record in football, needed another fourth-quarter comeback (including a recovered onside kick and a dubious PI) to beat a 4-win Browns team at home, and lost to a .500 Dolphins team with a chance to lock up the division and put themselves in the driver's seat for the one seed. I'm happy with 10-4, but I am not happy with what I've seen from the team over the past few weeks.

We just flat out disagree.
 
Are they dominant? No, obviously, but they are winning football games. How can you say they're playing terrible football. They're not a great team like we've seen in the past, but they're definitely a good team and good teams sometimes struggle throughout the season. We just happen to see their games in a different light - I view the comebacks and 2nd half play as positives that this team is overcoming adversity. I think they are setup very well for the playoffs, there is no quit in this team. Certainly they have their weaknesses, but what team doesn't right now?

 

[Toe Nash]

 
This.  And part of me feels be careful what you wish for, for absent a weather related  Act of God, given two weeks of preparation, I think there is a good chance this crew would get murdered by the likes of Seattle.  I don't want to see that happen because nobody remembers the valiant story -- they remember the butchering in front of a couple of hundred million people.  Ask Elway.  This team does not deserve that.

Well yeah, if they're going to lose to Seattle then why even bother trying. They should just lose their next two and go home. This is one of the dumbest things I've read on here.
 
Seattle is definitely very good, but who the fuck cares. Any season where you make the Super Bowl is awesome, they would still have a shot just as any team does (Seattle lost two games this year, HOW DID THAT HAPPEN?!!!), and honestly I'd rather get blown out than lose on another one in a million play. People have pointed out that it's a neutral field, upsets happen all the time, and BB is a pretty good coach who could probably figure out a successful gameplan.
 
"Be careful what you wish for" is laughable. Or maybe you're trolling in which case it was successful. 

 

[tims4wins]

With all that has gone wrong, the Pats are AFC East champs yet again. Even in down years they find a way to remain competitive. And as the last 3 years have shown, all you have to do is make the playoffs to have a chance. Go Pats.

 

[tims4wins]

Also, that.