The Celtics Offseason
- Thread starter kazuneko
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Every GM talks up their players. Of course Brad is going to say they expect him to be healthy especially considering a deal was just put in hold because of his questionable availability. If Brogdon does ultimately get traded, nobody should be complaining about the look
I try not to troll, but John Tomase needs to be trolled. I can’t believe he has a job in Boston media, after his disgraceful episode with the Herald where he libeled the New England Patriots by not following standard journalism procedure. That is the Gist of every one of my comments on a Tomase story
Three way, Grant going to some team that wants him, a pick to the Wiz, Morris to Boston.
In all honesty, his story about the Pats taping the Rams practice before SB 36 has led to SO MANY of the narratives about the Pats' cheating. Because it's one thing to tape signals during games in front of 80,000 people that anyone can see. It's another thing ENTIRELY to secretly tape a practice right before the Super Bowl. Marshall Faulk to this day is convinced that that actually happened and that that's the reason the Pats won that game. And he's not the only one.
That one story was so unbelievably damaging to the Pats.
It’s beyond ridiculous that the media outfit that pays many millions of dollars to broadcast the Celtics would allow a writer so uninformed about the NBA to put out a column like this. It’s almost as embarrassing as hiring Tomase the first place.
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From some of the stuff coming out of a few key guys (McMahon, Windhorst, etc.) I think there may be a slightly higher chance than I expected that the Celtics bring Grant back and figure out the money after next year.
It's basically why so many of us have been driven to SoSH/The Cellar & various podcasts to get sports takes and no longer use WEEI/Globe/Herald etc (The ATHLETIC is solid). The only thing worse than local reporting is the NBA National Media (ESPN/TNT) which has turned into a combination of "Game Show" hosts & sports gambling shills.
Brad and the team doctors know his health better than anyone. If Brad thought there were major health concerns with Brogdon, and that there would be a decent chance the Clips would leak the trade and then not go through with it, he probably wouldn't have even tried. That stuff might not matter as much to some teams, but I think it matters a lot to Brad. No GM wants to be seen as trying to trade damaged goods (just look to the GP II trade as a recent example). That's why I believe Brad when he says the Celtics are very comfortable with his medical.
And there is only one single reporter that is claiming that Brogdon has a serious health issue that frightened off the Clippers. The rest of the reports have hinted that the Clippers did not have enough time to do their own evaluation of Brogdon's medicals, in part because the Celtics had a tight timeline as Porzingis needed to opt-in to make the deal work at all. I am voting with the majority that says Brogdon will remain in Boston, barring some unexpected development on the trade front.
He also doesn’t know much about basketball, per Michael Pina at the ringer: “There were 49 players who averaged at least 15 shots per game last season, and VanVleet’s 39.3 field goal percentage ranked 49th. Out of 77 players who drove the ball at least 500 times, his minus-1.82 quantified shooter impact was 73rd. De’Aaron Fox made 68.4 percent of his driving layups last year; VanVleet finished at 47.8 percent. An inefficient point guard is anathema to any head coach who craves efficient offense.”
I can't imagine ATL looking at Brogdon, or any other guard really, with Trae/Dejounte/Bogdanovic already there.
Grant Williams though...
ATL might be the best shot for the Celtics to actually receive some value for Grant. Having him go to a team over the cap that can't use the leverage of threatening to just offer sheet him to see if they'll match is probably a best case scenario for Boston.
I agree I don't see Atlanta trading for another guard. they drafted 2 of them last week as well, Bufkin who most consider able to contribute right away, and then Lundy who is a 23 year old expected to be able to play a reserve role quickly.
I don't really see Atlanta going for Grant though, all accounts are they have been told to cut payroll substantially. They still have Hunter and Bey, with Thompson and griffin waiting for a chance to play.
If they really did bump against the deadline that's an unforced error by both sides. Negotiations could have started earlier, leaving enough time for the medicals. I actually buy that they balked after doing their preliminary check on Brogdon's records. The Windhorst story did suck though.
I listened to his presser and paid attention to his moves. I believe him when he says that he felt the need to balance the roster, adding to the frontcourt at the expense of a “really, really, really good player” from the backcourt. But I also believe that it was his intention to move Brogdon for a different third scorer (Porzingis) and Smart for a different ballhandler (Jones) in tandem, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him still attempt to address the latter role this offseason.
Sure there are a lot of things in play here as far as Brogdon. Between the new CBA, KP extension, his contract & injury. Its probably a coin toss he gets dealt IMO. There are a bunch of attractive bench PGs available.
BUT I don't see him as a bad fit talent-wise for this roster. He was pretty solid in the playoffs before the G1 injury. A healthy Malcolm probably gets the C's to the Finals.
Agree. Smart, for all his positives, isn't a great initiating guard, and does his best initiating out of the post, which is cute, but not really something that consistently warps defenses (unlike, say, Porzingis in the post).
This is my whole issue with Smart: his best attributes are being good "at X, for a guard". The Celtics need more guards who are good at guard stuff, and they probably saw Jones as that.
What is anyone's guess on Grant?
Would like to keep him, but imagine cap-wise doing so requires saving elsewhere---the two obvious candidates being trading Brogdon (don't love that generically) or perhaps a Porzingis extension which lowers his AAV a bit (I believe doable cap wise?)
It also depends on his market---I've been a bit lower on what he'll get than appears to be consensus, and so I'm probably wrong. To me, something like 3/$30 - $36 mil may still make sense in both directions. He COULD have something a lot bigger out there---wouldn't shock me. But all along I've wondered if someone is really going to pay for him given lack of offensive upside.
Would like to keep him, but imagine cap-wise doing so requires saving elsewhere---the two obvious candidates being trading Brogdon (don't love that generically) or perhaps a Porzingis extension which lowers his AAV a bit (I believe doable cap wise?)
It also depends on his market---I've been a bit lower on what he'll get than appears to be consensus, and so I'm probably wrong. To me, something like 3/$30 - $36 mil may still make sense in both directions. He COULD have something a lot bigger out there---wouldn't shock me. But all along I've wondered if someone is really going to pay for him given lack of offensive upside.
It's hard for me to see 3/30, because even without offensive upside, he is a much younger PJ Tucker with a better shot and better ability to play in space, even if limited. It seems hard to not find a team willing to pay 4/60ish for that.
I don’t think a Porzingis extension allows them to reduce the AAV for this coming season.
The Celtics could find someone who gives them 80% of Grant on the MLE if needed. Dump Brodgdon and they would be signing a player that gives them at most 60% , and his role and salary slot will far more critical than Grant’s.
I don’t see Stevens taking a step back with the roster just to resign Grant. They are all in with GFIN mode.
I don’t see him as a bad fit talent-wise for the roster. I wonder if Brad sees him as a bad fit role-wise as a primary ballhandler backing up White.
It's in part a cap space thing for me - Grant is a fit for a team who wants to contend, but lack of upside (and, i suspect, his preferences) mean that the Indiana/Houston types are less likely to sign him for that. Sacramento is a possibility and a fit---and, they have other things they might do. I suspect the different 'reads' are why he didn't sign last offseason---Celtics think the market is more like I am thinking (they were right about that when Smart was in similar situation as RFA as I recall) and Grant/agent sees the market more like you do. Utah and SA are both wildcards with him in my view too.
So, the set of conteders who want his profile is not huge. And there's likely-better players (Barnes, Draymond, Jerami Grant, arguably Lopez) chasing the contender dollars as primarily bigs. Plus guys like Middleton, Van Vleet, Kuzma who will chase dollars/slots for cap space teams. Someone might see him as a guy with upside too.
Now, the wildcard is how many of those guys resign where they are (and thus don't eat up space for Ind/Houston etc). And I realize there's lots of more creative ways for someone to add Grant...I guess I just suspect his market is more limited, and that doesn't exclude one team from really wanting him and paying up for it. We will see---I just think he's in an interesting spot, as are Celtics.
Personally, I'm happy to have him back though my ideal is to sign and trade him either for a pick or an interesting younger wing (Deandre Hunter is someone who I could possibly see, though lots of reasons that wouldn't fit in each direction and would guess Hawks wouldn't be willing to do that). I personally would not dump Brogdon to keep Grant, and doubt the team will.
So, the set of conteders who want his profile is not huge. And there's likely-better players (Barnes, Draymond, Jerami Grant, arguably Lopez) chasing the contender dollars as primarily bigs. Plus guys like Middleton, Van Vleet, Kuzma who will chase dollars/slots for cap space teams. Someone might see him as a guy with upside too.
Now, the wildcard is how many of those guys resign where they are (and thus don't eat up space for Ind/Houston etc). And I realize there's lots of more creative ways for someone to add Grant...I guess I just suspect his market is more limited, and that doesn't exclude one team from really wanting him and paying up for it. We will see---I just think he's in an interesting spot, as are Celtics.
Personally, I'm happy to have him back though my ideal is to sign and trade him either for a pick or an interesting younger wing (Deandre Hunter is someone who I could possibly see, though lots of reasons that wouldn't fit in each direction and would guess Hawks wouldn't be willing to do that). I personally would not dump Brogdon to keep Grant, and doubt the team will.
I don’t see Porzingis taking less. The rumor is that he will be extended for slightly more (2 years / $77M).
Grant falls in a noble tradition of second contracts that will be widely criticized before likely offering solid value: Avery Bradley (4/$32M), Marcus Smart (4/$52M), Robert Williams (4/$54M), etc. I don’t see him getting less, so I’ll say 4/$56M, a bit above the standard MLE for the next several seasons.
I think the signal of trading Smart means Zinger is structurally important enough to be extended. There is also the fact that, assuming he performs as we (and Brad and Joe) are hoping and expecting, then he’ll be a 7’3” unicorn coming off two great seasons and this time likely a very deep playoff run. Banking on their evaluation, I’d like more term before that happens.
My guess: Brad lets RFA work its contract depressing magic.
I like Grant, a lot, on a rookie deal. BUT I start getting queasy at 4yrs/$60MM.
Position semantics aside, the 4 is in good shape with KP & Al. I'd like to see them add a cheap athletic 5 to split the Center position with TimeLord with the expectation that they will go Double BIGz all season. Kyle Anderson (realistic) & Okongwu/WCJ (pipedreams) have my interest. Brad could probably get Daniel Gafford (on a reasonable deal - 3yrs at $40MM) for filler & 2nds. He's TimeLord-lite. BUT I've cooled on him a little bit (don't love his +/- On-Off splits over his career)
So expecting a Grant S&T. BUT 100% confident in Brad doing something much more clever than whatever I've dreamt up.
Offensively he's excellent as a ball handler from the bench. I'm not as concerned as most about his D against 2nd units.
Defensively, I see White or Brown or Tatum guarding ball handlers with Malcolm guarding the smallest WING. BUT I get the concern that if he gets switched on to Maxey he's toast.
His contract & role makes him the most likely to be moved.
I feel like Grant is the backup option if the Celtics strike out at finding a useful player with the tax MLE. If they can't add a player as good as Grant, then there is no reason to hard cap yourself at the second apron by using the tax MLE. This doesn't necessarily mean they will be a second apron team, because they will give themselves a second chance to get under there at the trade deadline.
Are you expecting a Grant S&T that brings back salary? According to Spotrac, the C’s are over $173M in active roster cap spending and $7M below the “Super Tax” apron of $182.5M for only eleven players.
I‘m wondering if Brad is “concerned“ or at least sees this as an opportunity area. Brogdon was acquired to be a third guy who could create offense, a role that can now be assumed by Porzingis. I suspect that Brad would prefer someone who can run the offense for others which is why he was in on Tyus Jones.
My guess is they match any signing from another team (within reason, around 4/60) and, as CD alluded to earlier, figure it out later. There will be plenty of teams with cap space that would trade for him next offseason if the C's feel that's the best way to go cap-wise.
No, that's probably a floor. His injury/surgery probably explains away all the DNP-CDs he received this year
Yes, use the Grant S&T to bring back salary/filler & move that to go get Kyle Andersen is my hope (and less than 1% chance of happening) OR another cheap 4/5
This is kinda a point for Atlanta trading for Grant Williams, or another S&T guy, rather than against.
It's a sneaky cheap owner trick. If they acquire an S&T guy into that new trade exception, it hard caps them at the first luxury tax apron. Always a nice bonus for cheap owners, because then gosh darn they would've been happy to spend more money on payroll, but that CBA just won't allow them to do so.
Don't believe pressers. It's all PR-speak. We haven't even began filling out the roster for training camp as there will surely be some additions and subtractions over the next month.
I'm with you here. I don't think the Celtics are going over the second apron this year. So taking back any salary at all in a Grant S&T is untenable unless Brogdon, or some other significant salary, is coming off the books.
Do you expect them to be above the apron? If not, what salary do you envision them shedding?
I honestly have no idea if they will go over/under this year.
Brogdon is the salary they will pivot around...
I'd be surprised if the Suns let him walk again as they did 2(?) years ago. They waited all of like 30 games to trade back for him iirc. You'd need to pay, pay, pay Craig for him to not be a Sun next year if I had to guess.
I don’t pretend to know all the consequences of operating above the second apron, but I’d be surprised if Brad ties his own hands and limits his ability to make future moves. Thus, I believe that Grant’s salary is the one he will pivot around, and the only sign-and-trade I’d expect would involve a trade exception and a minor draft asset changing hands.
Plus, the Suns have virtually no avenues for adding talent to the roster at this point other the vet minimum. They have traded every possible pick. The CBA prohibits aggregating outgoing salary for second apron teams and costs them the taxpayer MLE. Re-signing the guys for whom they have bird rights on short term deals at inflated numbers is one way to create an asset, in that they could be used to take on a useful but overpaid player whose contract goes out for additional years.
Agree with the bolded.
There are so many permutations & levers they can pull. Grant RFA, Jaylen extension, a potential Brogdon deal, and KP's extension are just a few of the ways. We also have no idea if they want to go over for a year (GFIN mode), while kicking the can down the road OR they could start over the cap and move salary at the deadline. Is the new CBA even finished? Do we know when the clock starts on the 2nd apron rules?
I suspect they will keep it close/tight since they own plenty of draft stock to make trades with non-contenders that throw in the towel (that's been his MO). I'd ALSO like them to stay under to keep trade flexibility since Brad & Co have been crushing it for 2 years running.
I agree with this as well. I would've just wanted to keep Grant, but once they added KP it doesn't make a lot of sense to pay Grant a lot of money when you already have three bigs on the roster making decent salaries(including one huge one)
I think the most likely scenario if they can S&T him is to a team under the cap with a second round pick or two just to generate a trade exception, like the Hayward & Fournier deals.
The only team a was able to find that's a decent fit to S&T him to directly to possibly add immediate help is Atlanta. If they were interested in signign Grant to take some of the vacated John Collins minutes, maybe the Celtics could strike a deal that gets them Saddiq Bey back if Atlanta wanted to give some of his minutes to AJ Griffin/Jalen Johnson.
In theory I'm with you on that, but 'Zingis is 7'3" and those guys don't have a long and glorious history of durability. Combined with Al's age and Timelord's injury history, I'd feel better about Boston having a guy that can be the fourth big while providing credible wing defense. Atlanta has four Fs and could use one with some bulk to handle the chores at the 4. So a Grant for Bey trade might work out well for both squads (where the Hawks already have Hunter, Johnson, and Griffin).
Also, Grant Williams is an RFA, Boston won't be giving up picks in a sign & trade.
Also, Grant Williams is an RFA, Boston won't be giving up picks in a sign & trade.
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Several things you could have soaked them with that would have been way worse
Well, there are permutations, and then there are permutations. I think KP’s extension is already agreed to and Jaylen’s supermax extension a lock at this point. The levers at their disposal include Grant’s RFA, trades (potentially including Brogdon but also Pritchard), and the $5M exception.
Who has cap space and a need? Houston? San Antonio?
If the signing team is already under the cap, and Brad has no intention of matching the offer, might he not trade some marginal draft asset to convince that team to execute the transaction as a trade, thereby creating a trade exception that he could use within the next twelve months?
Williams is restricted and the penalties for operating over the second apron don’t kick in until next year. It’s a lock that Boston is going to match unless Houston is the team and they pony up Bridges type money for Grant. Aside from that it’s going to be a sign & trade transaction. And even Houston would prefer to pay market rates and will be willing to trade a pick to pay Williams 4/fifty something rather than 4/80+.