The Durant Sweepstakes

[HomeRunBaker]

For this year and next, probably. Over the next 6-7? There's a good argument for Boston.

Durant would only be signing for 4-years. If he wants to win we have arguably the worst roster of the 6 teams certainly no better than second worst. I'm still searching for a reason for him to seriously consider us as an option......past relationship with Ainge as a courtesy to see if anything drastic changes next summer if he signs a 1+1 with OKC? This is why I've never given us a change......I can't find a single reason why he would choose us much less the multiple reasons likely necessary to beat out the other 5 teams.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Durant would only be signing for 4-years.

This is true, but there is a train of thought that if Durant moves now, he won't want to move again. If he views things through that lens, Boston has a decent shot.

Even in years 2-4, Boston has a good argument to be as competitive as the rest except maybe Golden State I'd argue. Those Brooklyn picks could net a pretty strong complement.

 

[nighthob]

Because the Durant/Horford Cs are going to sleepwalk to 60 wins (by letting the other 12 guys do the hard work) and then only need to worry bout getting past the Cavs. If he signs in the West there are two brutal playoff series before the finals.

 

[heavyde050]

Durant would only be signing for 4-years. If he wants to win we have arguably the worst roster of the 6 teams certainly no better than second worst. I'm still searching for a reason for him to seriously consider us as an option......past relationship with Ainge as a courtesy to see if anything drastic changes next summer if he signs a 1+1 with OKC? This is why I've never given us a change......I can't find a single reason why he would choose us much less the multiple reasons likely necessary to beat out the other 5 teams.

I would think the Celts are second worst (definitely better than the Heat for next year and going forward) if looking in a super pessimistic manner. I could argue that going forward the Celts are better than the Clippers for the following reasons:
The Clippers main core is older than the Celtics
The Clippers have more stars but much less depth
The Clippers definitely have a worse front office and coach
The Clippers play in the West and are definitely worse than GSW, OKC, and San Antonio (so at best the Clippers are the 4th best team in their league - if the Celts get Al Horford, I would think they become a top 3 team in the East easy.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

This is true, but there is a train of thought that if Durant moves now, he won't want to move again. If he views things through that lens, Boston has a decent shot.

Even in years 2-4, Boston has a good argument to be as competitive as the rest except maybe Golden State I'd argue. Those Brooklyn picks could net a pretty strong complement.

Durant would seemingly require in these meetings that those picks be traded and want assurances of such. I know I would if I were in his shoes but having Durant would make it much easier to move these pieces for veterans.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Durant would seemingly require in these meetings that those picks be traded and want assurances of such. I know I would if I were in his shoes but having Durant would make it much easier to move these pieces for veterans.

Yeah, no way Danny is sitting on these picks if Durant comes. It's cash-in time. If it's Horford and Durant, the issue is going to be finding someone who can fit under the cap, but I'm sure there'd be a way to get it done via emptying some of the other talent.

 

[Omar's Wacky Neighbor]

Maybe KD is just a TB fan:

Well, there's that thing with his cell phone.....

 

[PedroKsBambino]

For this year and next, probably. Over the next 6-7? There's a good argument for Boston. And it's not like he's 30+, he's only 27 and probably has at least 5-6 years left of high-level basketball.

Even for the next 2, if he signs here with Horford, they are already title contenders, even if not favorites, so it's not like they'd be totally wasted years.

Yes, it's just silly to suggest Celtics with Durant win fewer games than OKC without Durant even next year. Doubt they win fewer than Clippers, either.

Looking out even a year or two, easy to project them with Warriors and above Spurs with Durant and Horford.

I think HRB may have forgotten to add the value of Durant when comparing the teams

 

[nighthob]

Boston would clearly have the chips to trade for another star. But Boston already has the largest collection of high functioning role players in the NBA. I don't think Durant will be worried about changing the current set that won 48 games for new ones that are older.

 

[Ed Hillel]

I think HRB may have forgotten to add the value of Durant when comparing the teams

Well, to be fair, you have to add Durant to all those other teams and compare how the Celts with Durant looks compared to those teams with Durant. I just honestly think a team of Durant, Horford, Thomas, Brown, XXX (from Brooklyn picks) compares favorably to maybe any team but Golden State over the next few years (even factoring in Durant), and the Celtics have Stevens plus an easier path in the East. Over the next 4-5, there's an argument that Boston is the best destination for winning.

 

[Vegas Sox Fan]

I know the KO tweet was a joke but what if KD says I will come if you can get Harden. IT and/or Smart would need to be part of that package which would be a bit awkward, no?

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Well, to be fair, you have to add Durant to all those other teams and compare how the Celts with Durant looks compared to those teams with Durant. I just honestly think a team of Durant, Horford, Thomas, Brown, XXX (from Brooklyn picks) compares favorably to maybe any team but Golden State over the next few years (even factoring in Durant), and the Celtics have Stevens plus an easier path in the East. Over the next 4-5, there's an argument that Boston is the best destination for winning.

That's the point...the comparison is not "today's roster" the comparison is "total assets + roster over next 4 years"

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Yes, it's just silly to suggest Celtics with Durant win fewer games than OKC without Durant even next year. Doubt they win fewer than Clippers, either.

Looking out even a year or two, easy to project them with Warriors and above Spurs with Durant and Horford.

I think HRB may have forgotten to add the value of Durant when comparing the teams

Of course I am. Those other teams WITH Durant are far superior to the Celtics team WITH Durant. It really isn't close.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Of course I am. Those other teams WITH Durant are far superior to the Celtics team WITH Durant. It really isn't close.

You think that's true considering cap space, draft picks, and roster construction over the next four years? I agree it isn't close, but I'm considering the rosters over time not just today---that is probably where we diverge in our approach. The Clips are not even in the discussion with that as the comparison, nor is OKC. Spurs might be---but they have major gaps to address without any real assets to fill them (which they are more capable of than most).

 

[HomeRunBaker]

You think that's true considering cap space, draft picks, and roster construction over the next four years? I agree it isn't close, but I'm considering the rosters over time not just today---that is probably where we diverge in our approach. The Clips are not even in the discussion with that as the comparison, nor is OKC. Spurs might be---but they have major gaps to address without any real assets to fill them (which they are more capable of than most).

There is a good chance we can pass Miami and OKC in 3 years sure.....but this is a stars league as I know you're aware and we aren't going to have a Curry/Klay/Dray or a Blake/Paul/DeAndre or a Kawhi/Aldridge combos anytime soon. Over time those players are either remaining with their team or in the case of LAC possibly moved for returning talent if they ever break up the gang.

If Durant wants to rebuild a roster yeah sure I guess that's a nice challenge for him......being in place with any of the other teams he's meeting with make him an instant championship tomorrow AND throughout the length of his contract.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

There are only three likely landing spots for Durant at this stage. OKC, GS and maybe Boston.

The Clippers cannot keep their other three together and take on Durant at the max. Its a fact. Also, CP3 is 31 and has shown a tendency to break down of late. Furthermore, that locker-room seems pretty toxic if the rumors are to be believed. I cannot see why KD would want to go there, for less money at this point in his career.

The Spurs are great and you cannot discount the influence of Pop and Duncan. But they would have to move some pieces to make it work and in the process they would be shedding depth that San Antonio has typically valued and used to its advantage over the past 15 years.

I am completely discounting the Heat given that Wade may be a goner, he is old and Bosh's future is uncertain.

So it comes down to staying in OKC and giving it one more try with a roster that is still a star or two short having enough to get it done, going to GS, who will also have to shed depth to make a KD-integration work or Boston, where he would presumably be paired with Horford and another vet scorer acquired by trade but might have a clearer path to the finals.

There is no sure bet here for Durant but if winning now is his main focus, HRB is correct in that there are better choices than Boston. That said, they are probably his third best landing spot all things considered.

 

[heavyde050]

There is a good chance we can pass Miami and OKC in 3 years sure.....but this is a stars league as I know you're aware and we aren't going to have a Curry/Klay/Dray or a Blake/Paul/DeAndre or a Kawhi/Aldridge combos anytime soon. Over time those players are either remaining with their team or in the case of LAC possibly moved for returning talent if they ever break up the gang.

If Durant wants to rebuild a roster yeah sure I guess that's a nice challenge for him......being in place with any of the other teams he's meeting with make him an instant championship tomorrow AND throughout the length of his contract.

If the Celts get Durant - they automatically pass OKC and Miami next year. I would also put them past the Clippers and probably the Spurs in 2017. KD/Thomas/rest of Celtics/top 3 2017 pick is definitely better than OKC, Miami, and possibly better than the Clippers and a Spurs team without Duncan. If the Celts got Horford also, it would be a slam dunk that they are better than the Clippers and the Spurs in 2017.

So out of the 6 teams, the Celts would possibly be better than all of them if the get Durant. Of course any of the other five teams are better than the Celts if they get Durant.

I don't get all the Celts hate. They would have a great shot of getting to the finals by 2017 if they sign Durant and going back each year after.

 

[heavyde050]

There are only three likely landing spots for Durant at this stage. OKC, GS and maybe Boston.

The Clippers cannot keep their other three together and take on Durant at the max. Its a fact. Also, CP3 is 31 and has shown a tendency to break down of late. Furthermore, that locker-room seems pretty toxic if the rumors are to be believed. I cannot see why KD would want to go there, for less money at this point in his career.

The Spurs are great and you cannot discount the influence of Pop and Duncan. But they would have to move some pieces to make it work and in the process they would be shedding depth that San Antonio has typically valued and used to its advantage over the past 15 years.

I am completely discounting the Heat given that Wade may be a goner, he is old and Bosh's future is uncertain.

So it comes down to staying in OKC and giving it one more try with a roster that is still a star or two short having enough to get it done, going to GS, who will also have to shed depth to make a KD-integration work or Boston, where he would presumably be paired with Horford and another vet scorer acquired by trade but might have a clearer path to the finals.

There is no sure bet here for Durant but if winning now is his main focus, HRB is correct in that there are better choices than Boston. That said, they are probably his third best landing spot all things considered.

Your key point is at the end...they are the third best landing spot. If you believe (which I do) that Westbrook leaves OKC as a free agent next year; the Celts become the second best landing spot going forward.

 

[JakeRae]

Proposition: the Clippers cannot

There is a good chance we can pass Miami and OKC in 3 years sure.....but this is a stars league as I know you're aware and we aren't going to have a Curry/Klay/Dray or a Blake/Paul/DeAndre or a Kawhi/Aldridge combos anytime soon. Over time those players are either remaining with their team or in the case of LAC possibly moved for returning talent if they ever break up the gang.

If Durant wants to rebuild a roster yeah sure I guess that's a nice challenge for him......being in place with any of the other teams he's meeting with make him an instant championship tomorrow AND throughout the length of his contract.

The Celtics were equally as good as Miami last year. They have a younger roster and the space to add an additional max player in addition to Durant as well as a dramatic draft pick advantage. Sure, Miami did better in the playoffs, but the Celtics suffered serious injuries in the playoffs that derailed their chances. It's hard to imagine a reasonable argument that Miami is a better potential destination. It's actually hard to imagine why Durant is even considering Miami.

In general, it seems like you are dramatically underweighting the Celtics' ability to add a second max contract player, i.e., Horford. The current Celtics team, plus Horford, is definitely better than Miami. They are probably competitive with the Clippers. They are not as good as the Warriors and Spurs. It's a closer call how they compare to a Durant-less Thunder team, but they may very well be better than them too. If we assume that the only two teams who are actually better than the Celtics in this scenario are the Spurs and Warriors, it gets more interesting. The Spurs are a terrible roster fit. Kawhi, Durant, and Aldridge are all forwards, which means that both Durant and Aldridge would probably need to play up a position defensively to make the roster work. That both locks them into being undersized and asks Durant to shift permanently to the 4. (Kawhi is probably the guy who should remain at the 3 defensively.) While Pop is a great coach who can probably work around this, it's a legitimate point of concern that Durant might have. Additionally, the Spurs roster is aging out and they won't be able to continue to steal value from their old core who have decided to play at discounts as they sail into the sunset for much longer. The Warriors roster, with Durant, is formidable. If all he cares about is winning, that's absolutely where he should go. The only real argument against them is grounded in ego/legacy and I don't think I really need to run through it.

In the end, I think it's pretty likely he stays in OKC for at least another year. They were close this year, have already improved via the Ibaka trade, and can pay him more. If he leaves, I would be shocked if it is to go anywhere besides to the Warriors or the Celtics.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

OK, but let's be real. Miami is in worse shape right now than Celtics star-wise (unless you think Bosh is healthy through some miracle). OKC has one year of Westbrook with a significant chance of losing him. Limited interesting assets to do anything else in either case, and a pretty weak supporting cast today in both cases. I just don't believe you think either of them is in better position than Celtics---it's not credible.

SA has two huge pieces in place. But they need a PG, they will need size, and they don't have many assets. Reasonable people can disagree on them vs Celtics over this timeframe, given the stars. But again---Celtics WITH Durant are at least as attractive a situation and they have a lot more ways to add someone else.

Clippers are interesting---Paul just cannot be viewed as a good bet to keep it up for 4 more years, at which point he'll be 35. But he's great right now for sure. Griffin is certainly a star, and I'm a believer (in spite of some clear limits). Jordan....well, I guess some have him as a star. For me, he's a great supporting guy who loses value without Paul, and is somewhat overrated. And there is NOTHING around those guys. Obviously, next couple years they could be ahead of Celtics---but far from a sure thing, especially given the conference. To me, this is a team that needs to be all-in next couple years and is a likely collapse after that.

 

[The Social Chair]

He'd also have to be ok with being Curry's Pippen if he goes to the Warriors.

I think he goes back to OKC but the Celtics become the favorites to sign him next summer if OKC doesn't win the title.

 

[E5 Yaz]

David OrtizVerified account‏@davidortiz
Yo @KDTrey5 sorry I couldn't make the meeting today but Brady will tell u they don't call Boston the City of Champions for nothing

 

[PedroKsBambino]

GS is, to me, really a question of what drives Durant. If he truly just wants to win and doesn't care about ego, reputation, or credit they are the right choice...with him, they would be an absolute monster.

However, if they don't win titles consistently he is going to be blamed by a material amount of fans which is a risk he doesn't bear anywhere else. And if he cares a lot about ego or credit, this is not the situation for him...he'll never catch Curry and may never truly catch Green either.

My sense is he might not care about that stuff, but worth considering I think

 

[Cellar-Door]

I'll say this:
IF by some miracle, the Celtics get Durant and Horford, they're one of the top 5 teams in the league next year:
Behind: GS, CLE for sure, in the mix w/ SA, LAC.
Durant is one of the 3 best players in the league, and Horford is very good, add in the depth of the Celtics and it is a top 5 team.

Edit- as an example look at OKC w/o Durant.
Durant> Russ
Horford>Adams
IT> Kanter
Crowder>Oladipo
Bradley> Roberson

 

[zenter]

If Horford is confirmed, the game is afoot.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Horford signing proves the point being made earlier---assets matter, not just the current roster.

HRB, willing to admit you were wrong yet?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Horford signing proves the point being made earlier---assets matter, not just the current roster.

HRB, willing to admit you were wrong yet?

Did I miss something? Horford has spent the weekend debating between the Celtics and the dysfunctional Wizards. He had no market and Atlanta knew this the entire time unless they realized Ainge would pay him the max.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Did I miss something? Horford has spent the weekend debating between the Celtics and the dysfunctional Wizards. He had no market and Atlanta knew this the entire time unless they realized Ainge would pay him the max.

I think you missed free agency if you think there was no market. Which explains a bunch of your posts today, actually!

It is indeed a star league---but that does not mean that in every situation the only think that matters at all is how many stars. Other stuff counts too.

I'm not even a huge Horford fan, but it's clearly a significant get and proves the larger point that cap space, picks, and roster construction do matter some. Obviously, without adding an alpha dog Celtics aren't a contender...but the reason they are interesting to that alpha dog is they have the other stuff in place. Still a tough needle to thread.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I think you missed free agency if you think there was no market. Which explains a bunch of your posts today, actually!

It is indeed a star league---but that does not mean that in every situation the only think that matters at all is how many stars. Other stuff counts too.

We upgraded our frontcourt which is a good thing and super glad we got him so we aren't forced to retain Sully. Where was the market? His own team choose Dwight Howard over him and our completion was the Wizards.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Guys...Woj is almost never wrong (re: Horford). Given the timing...

GUYS...

 

[Ed Hillel]

Woj:

Sources: Kevin Durant had been recruiting Horford to OKC, but Horford eliminated OKC with no assurance Durant/Westbrook staying long-term.

OKC ESPN guy:

Something seems to have dramatically swung Horford choosing Boston. I'm sure the windows at the OKC practice facility rattled a bit just now

GUYS....GUYS.....

 

[The Big Red Kahuna]

Woj:

OKC ESPN guy:


GUYS....GUYS.....

Stop. I'm getting worked up and it's still a loooong shot.

 

[SoxinSeattle]

Anything is possible!! - In KG voice

 

[johnmd20]

If Horford is confirmed, the game is afoot.

Nice. I'm literally watching Sherlock this very second. I like this post.

 

[AMS25]

1. 
   
2. 
   Royce Young ‏@royceyoung 5m5 minutes ago
   Durant (obviously) didn't do that, and from that point on their chances at Horford were dented significantly.
   
3. 
   Royce Young ‏@royceyoung 6m6 minutes ago
   OKC went armed into their meeting with Durant with the message of canceling the Hamptons and signing long term so they could chase Horford.
   
   

 

[The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa]

David OrtizVerified account‏@davidortiz
Yo @KDTrey5 sorry I couldn't make the meeting today but Brady will tell u they don't call Boston the City of Champions for nothing

No message from senior Red Sox pitching staffer Clay Buchholz?

 

[Reardon's Beard]

Horford to Boston feels like Allen before KG - albeit different but just feels OH THE FEEEEEELS!!!!

 

[soxhop411]

Jay King ‏@ByJayKing 22m22 minutes ago
According to this report, Durant flew to Boston yesterday and then flew back to the Hamptons with Tom Brady. http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/celtics-tom-brady-free-agent-pitch-kevin-durant-article-1.2697083…

 

[djbayko]

Horford to Boston feels like Allen before KG - albeit different but just feels OH THE FEEEEEELS!!!!

It's hard to believe there was a whole month between those two trades. The passage of time has kind of turned them into single orchestration by Danny Ainge that happened very quickly in my mind. This decision should happen much sooner since Durant has already talked to the teams and the complication of working out a trade isn't present.

 

[djbayko]

Jay King ‏@ByJayKing 22m22 minutes ago
According to this report, Durant flew to Boston yesterday and then flew back to the Hamptons with Tom Brady. http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/celtics-tom-brady-free-agent-pitch-kevin-durant-article-1.2697083…

Mile high handy?

 

[BoSoxFink]

When did KD say he would make his decision? Did he actually say?

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

If the Cs floated some sort of trade for another veteran scorer (Monte Ellis?) and the imminent signing of Horford this does get more interesting for Durant to Boston scenarios. Still a longshot but the odds have moved in the Cs favor.

 

[Red Averages]

Jay King ‏@ByJayKing 22m22 minutes ago
According to this report, Durant flew to Boston yesterday and then flew back to the Hamptons with Tom Brady. http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/celtics-tom-brady-free-agent-pitch-kevin-durant-article-1.2697083…

Wasn't he meeting with GS and LAC on Friday?

 

[Cellar-Door]

When did KD say he would make his decision? Did he actually say?

He still hasn't said anything about his FA basically. However most reports about his meeting list mentioned he'd like to be decided when the moritorium ends so he can sign on July 7 and take a vacation before reporting for Team USA camp.

 

[AMS25]

Wasn't he meeting with GS and LAC on Friday?

Yep

 

[HomeRunBaker]

If the Cs floated some sort of trade for another veteran scorer (Monte Ellis?) and the imminent signing of Horford this does get more interesting for Durant to Boston scenarios. Still a longshot but the odds have moved in the Cs favor.

Ok now I'm officially excited after the Horford signing and all we are hearing about Brady who is Durant's favorite athlete. Let's worry about adding pieces later but we'd certainly have assets and Jaylen Brown would be the first and most valuable one to be dangled.

Giddy up!!! Prove me wrong Danny!

 

[Red Averages]

Could the Celtics afford Durant, Horford, IT, Crowder and Cousins?

 

[DisgruntledSoxFan77]

Jesus people, let's not get greedy here! We got Horford, and we're hoping for Durant! The game is only played with one ball!

 

[E5 Yaz]

Jesus people, let's not get greedy here! We got Horford, and we're hoping for Durant! The game is only played with one ball!

Thank you, Mike Lowell

 

[Sprowl]

David OrtizVerified account‏@davidortiz
Yo @KDTrey5 sorry I couldn't make the meeting today but Brady will tell u they don't call Boston the City of Champions for nothing