Noted.Also, the preferred terminology for them is The ATM Machine.
Christopher Smith is usually pretty measured but I don't why we need to view everything through a lens of catastrophe and mismanagement. Is it so outlandish that a promising rookie outfielder collects 400 PAs in his first full season? Why am I being asked to gnash my teeth about this?Red Sox’s Tom Werner ‘looking forward’ to rookie ‘having 400 at-bats’
“I’m looking forward to Wilyer Abreu having 400 at-bats,” Werner said. “There’s a lot to be excited about. We admit that our pitching wasn’t strong last year but I expect improvement. I expect the people who are on our team and we have a young core — will be a step closer to being excellent.”
This brings up an interesting question, especially in terms of the outfield. Are the Red Sox relying too much on young players with small sample sizes?
The 24-year-old left-handed hitting Abreu made his major league debut in late August. He went 24-for-76 (.316) with a .388 on-base percentage, .474 slugging percentage, .862 OPS, two homers, six doubles, 10 runs, 14 RBIs, nine walks and 23 strikeouts in 28 games for Boston. His advanced pitch recognition skills helped him post an impressive 25.1% chase percentage and 10.6% walk percentage.
Can the Red Sox really rely on Abreu for 400 at-bats when he’s played only a month in the big leagues?
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Boston certainly could use another outfielder. As the roster stands right now, they will be relying significantly on relatively unproven talent, especially if both Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela.
He seems to be just posing a question about relying on young players with small sample sizes, which seems to me like a valid baseball question. It was Werner who threw out the 400 ABs number.Putting this here for lack of a better place. Masslive has yet another joint out today that seems written solely from the point of pessimism.
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/01/red-soxs-tom-werner-looking-forward-to-rookie-having-400-at-bats.html
Christopher Smith is usually pretty measured but I don't why we need to view everything through a lens of catastrophe and mismanagement.
Yeah, I'm excited to see Abreu too, love his swing and am pretty bullish on him. I'm not quite sold on 400 AB's, though, and it certainly is a valid baseball question. I take in the writer's tone in every story, but he/she is entitled to write with the slant they see fit. That doesn't change the underlying facts, and thankfully now we have some of those to operate with. And nothing will change the fact that this kind of thing (Abreu) would have been an easier sell when some people still actually believed a word that came out of their mouths.He seems to be just posing a question about relying on young players with small sample sizes, which seems to me like a valid baseball question. It was Werner who threw out the 400 ABs number.
Sounds very much like valid questions that we’ve all had productive conversations about here. Sometimes a windmill is just a windmill.Putting this here for lack of a better place. Masslive has yet another joint out today that seems written solely from the point of pessimism.
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/01/red-soxs-tom-werner-looking-forward-to-rookie-having-400-at-bats.html
Christopher Smith is usually pretty measured but I don't why we need to view everything through a lens of catastrophe and mismanagement. Is it so outlandish that a promising rookie outfielder collects 400 PAs in his first full season? Why am I being asked to gnash my teeth about this?
I suppose he's assuming that Yoshida is our full-time DH (something Breslow has stated he doesn't see happening) and the outfield configuration is O'Neill in left, Duran in center, and Abreu in right field. But Breslow has said at every turn that we are planning to acquire a right-handed hitter, who presumably would see or share time at DH.
If you truly think the writer is measured, then why not accept that he’s asking legitimate, good faith questions? I don’t read those questions as pessimism at all. They are the kinds of questions that this club must answer in the affirmative so we don’t post a third straight sub-500, last place finish.Putting this here for lack of a better place. Masslive has yet another joint out today that seems written solely from the point of pessimism.
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/01/red-soxs-tom-werner-looking-forward-to-rookie-having-400-at-bats.html
Christopher Smith is usually pretty measured but I don't why we need to view everything through a lens of catastrophe and mismanagement. Is it so outlandish that a promising rookie outfielder collects 400 PAs in his first full season? Why am I being asked to gnash my teeth about this?
I suppose he's assuming that Yoshida is our full-time DH (something Breslow has stated he doesn't see happening) and the outfield configuration is O'Neill in left, Duran in center, and Abreu in right field. But Breslow has said at every turn that we are planning to acquire a right-handed hitter, who presumably would see or share time at DH.
And also seem to be perfectly content to hand the kid the job at second base barring a spring training nightmare (please God no), so I'd say the answer to the question above is easily yes. Not to mention if Grissom struggles and Sale thrives, God help us all.... It's a damn big bet.We bought him for 17 million.
What’s sad is the 10 million we saved on Sale they appear to be pocketing.And also seem to be perfectly content to hand the kid the job at second base barring a spring training nightmare (please God no), so I'd say the answer to the question above is easily yes. Not to mention if Grissom struggles and Sale thrives, God help us all.... It's a damn big bet.
Yes Anthony’s “ascent” seems fast but I think some context is needed on why it appears as if he started from a lower place (you can’t have ascent if your prospect balloon is already in the stratosphere).Anthony has had one of the more meteoric rises in prospectdom in the last 10 years. His plate approach, power and overall offensive profile are outstanding. He started striking out a lot at the end of his time in Greenville. If he goes back to his normal k rate in Portland he likely vaults to one of the top 5 prospects in baseball status but I think there's more of a chance that he plateaus a bit and takes a bit longer to work out the kinks. His ascent is rare and I tend to be skeptical of those things. We'll see I guess.
That's more than a fair (and yeah, sad) point, particularly if things stay absolutely static. I'm just trying not to let myself get caught up in my anger right now, and it's not easy.What’s sad is the 10 million we saved on Sale they appear to be pocketing.
And it sure sounds like they'll add one, from Breslow saying it again and again and again and again.An OF of Duran-O’Neill-Abreu with Yoshida at DH is..ok, I guess. But what happens when someone gets hurt or there’s underperformance? Refsnyder? Rafaela? The team desperately needs another OF/DH bat, i think that’s kind of clear. This offense could be pretty mediocre.
Yeah, I'm excited to see Abreu too, love his swing and am pretty bullish on him. I'm not quite sold on 400 AB's, though, and it certainly is a valid baseball question. I take in the writer's tone in every story, but he/she is entitled to write with the slant they see fit. That doesn't change the underlying facts, and thankfully now we have some of those to operate with. And nothing will change the fact that this kind of thing (Abreu) would have been an easier sell when some people still actually believed a word that came out of their mouths.
Sounds very much like valid questions that we’ve all had productive conversations about here. Sometimes a windmill is just a windmill.
I mean, sure, but isn't it fairly standard in the history of the game of baseball for young players with small sample sizes to grow into significant roles at the major league level?If you truly think the writer is measured, then why not accept that he’s asking legitimate, good faith questions? I don’t read those questions as pessimism at all. They are the kinds of questions that this club must answer in the affirmative so we don’t post a third straight sub-500, last place finish.
I ask this in all honesty as I'm not attuned to the reality of the other 29 teams so I could be wrong, but isn't this the situation for most teams? I look at the Rangers and they hit very well but almost all those guys over performed and would we say that anyone but Seager, Lowe, and maybe Adolis qualify? Yankees have Judge and Soto for sure, Gleyber as well id say? The Diamondbacks only have a few.And this brings me right back to the point I’ve been making today… we have precious few reliable batters in this lineup. Two. The rest all have some range of questions, from minor to gigantic. If even half of them underperform we’re probably screwed.
Or maybe the writer didn't intend it as such, but virtually anything that gets questioned about Red Sox roster management right now will have that subtext.I mean, sure, but isn't it fairly standard in the history of the game of baseball for young players with small sample sizes to grow into significant roles at the major league level?
There is never certainty — it's baseball — but why the handwringing? You all know as well as I do what the subtext of this article is. It's amplifying concern, alarm, jeopardy, or if you like, the specter of mismanagement, foolishness, villainy.
Problem as I see it is that the Sox have a few impact bats (Devers and Casas) and then a bunch of guys who look like 1-2 win players at best. The Rangers had two 6 win hitters (Semien and Seager), two more who were 4+ in Garcia and Heim, and 4 others (Jung, Taveras, Garver, and Lowe) who were 2 or better. So that’s 8 hitters worth more than 2 wins.I ask this in all honesty as I'm not attuned to the reality of the other 29 teams so I could be wrong, but isn't this the situation for most teams? I look at the Rangers and they hit very well but almost all those guys over performed and would we say that anyone but Seager, Lowe, and maybe Adolis qualify? Yankees have Judge and Soto for sure, Gleyber as well id say? The Diamondbacks only have a few.
This isn't on any larger point than this to be clear, I just find that reliable, above average bats feel difficult to get without some catch.
That may be fair, but we now have fewer reliable bats than last year. When we went 78-84. I’m not sure why this FO is content with going backwards.I ask this in all honesty as I'm not attuned to the reality of the other 29 teams so I could be wrong, but isn't this the situation for most teams? I look at the Rangers and they hit very well but almost all those guys over performed and would we say that anyone but Seager, Lowe, and maybe Adolis qualify? Yankees have Judge and Soto for sure, Gleyber as well id say? The Diamondbacks only have a few.
This isn't on any larger point than this to be clear, I just find that reliable, above average bats feel difficult to get without some catch.
Yeah whenever the annual poll comes out, I’m picking 76 wins.That may be fair, but we now have fewer reliable bats than last year. When we went 78-84. I’m not sure why this FO is content with going backwards.
Look, I hope everyone overperforms and we win 88+ games.
Im guessing you mean Duvall and Turner. Duvall has an almost identical career wrc+ to O'Neill. Hes never been reliable in his career.That may be fair, but we now have fewer reliable bats than last year. When we went 78-84. I’m not sure why this FO is content with going backwards.
Look, I hope everyone overperforms and we win 88+ games.
Turner and Verdugo. Not that Verdugo is great, but you know where the floor is.Im guessing you mean Duvall and Turner. Duvall has an almost identical career wrc+ to O'Neill. Hes never been reliable in his career.
Turner is tougher to replace, but I think Grissom and Story at SS and 2B will be major improvements over what we trotted out there last year. Abreu also has the upside to be a better hitter than Verdugo. If we add one more hitter of Turner's quality, I think the team will actually have a better offense.
Are there a lot of question marks? Yes. Potential volatility? Yes. But there's tremendous upside as well.
I personally am happy to watch the kids. I also think theres still room to add. They said they'd probably stay below last years payroll, but if Spotrac is right that should mean theres still 15-20 mill to spend, and more if they dump some of the dead weight. Ymmv!
Did any player have a better 45 PA than Roman Anthony did at 19? Lars Anderson was better at 20 and was better a Single A at 19. Xander was better in AA for a more PAs at 19. Kind of hard to find many American player playing AA that young before the contraction of the minors in 2021.Anthony is 19 and just hit AA - did anyone on that list do that?
As I noted above - Anthony really is in a different class - and looked better in AA at 19 (in only 44 PA's to be sure) than Mookie looked in AA at 21. Devers hit AA at 20 and ended the year slugging nearly .500 for the Red Sox.
People make too much of a team's prospect rankings. There are 30 teams in the majors and if you rank each one's #1 prospect against each of the other teams', one will be ranked number 30. However, one or more teams could have a #2, 3 pick who would rate higher than that #30 prospect.So with our current crop we're looking at 31% star, 27% regular, 42% bust.
I agree - for sure - but take a look at the 2022 Rangers which are pretty much all the same guys as 2023 except for Josh Jung, just to look at year over year change. I say this because reliable impact bats would hypothetically mean year over year. Only four hitters with 100+ PA had an OPS+ over 100. Only one of those had an OPS over .800 (Lowe). Those four, Heim, and the anemic Kole Calhoun played in over 100 games. Only those five were above 1 bWAR and only Semien was above 4. Same names, different results.Problem as I see it is that the Sox have a few impact bats (Devers and Casas) and then a bunch of guys who look like 1-2 win players at best. The Rangers had two 6 win hitters (Semien and Seager), two more who were 4+ in Garcia and Heim, and 4 others (Jung, Taveras, Garver, and Lowe) who were 2 or better. So that’s 8 hitters worth more than 2 wins.
Sox had Devers at 3.1 fWAR, and then Duran at 2.4 and Verdguo at 2.0.
Rangers had four hitters better than our best guy, by a pretty huge margin.
(Obviously, defense is playing a factor here in fWAR and it’s not in the Sox favor. But fact is that our offense really isn’t looking that great).
In the latest Substack from Red Sox Stats, he talks about how over the past few years he has heard/been told that the Red Sox org wasn't thrilled with the level of attention the prospects were getting and the scrutiny they were under for their nightly performances on social media...Only direct quotes....the article doesn't say anything we don't already know / haven't discussed. Zero discussion of others.
“We’ve been ferociously protecting prospects in our minor-league system for a long time, going back to 2020, 2021,” Kennedy said. “And I think we’re at the stage now where you’re starting to see the results of holding on to young, talented players. We’re hoping we’re going to be competitive in 2024. That’s always the goal. I don’t think it’d be appropriate to offer a timetable on anything at this point.”
“We need to have a robust group of core, homegrown, talented players,” Kennedy said. “And there will be a day when we match up again, on a high-profile free-agent deal, but it hasn’t happened this offseason.”
“I think it’s unfair, it’s unrealistic to expect that every prospect we have becomes a major-league superstar,” Breslow said. “There’s a variety of outcomes that we need to be honest about. But I think the model, the blueprint for success here for a really long time has been developing stars internally, and also supplementing them with impact players either through trades or free agency. I think that’s the model that we intend to replicate.”
I really liked McCaffrey's piece. I am all for prospects but she sums up the concern I have had counting too much on them at the same time and what then happens if they falter.In the latest Substack from Red Sox Stats, he talks about how over the past few years he has heard/been told that the Red Sox org wasn't thrilled with the level of attention the prospects were getting and the scrutiny they were under for their nightly performances on social media...
My lord has that changed. They are putting a hell of a lot of pressure on these prospects to hit