The future at 3rd

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KillerBs

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Nov 16, 2006
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BHB, that doesn't sound like much of a plan to me...WMB, Cecchini, switch Bogie to 3b, bring up Marrero, try to find someone mid season -- a virtual recipe for disaster just like the one we just lived thru.
 
I think the primary concern with Cecchini, aside from his AAA mediocrity at the bat, is that he is not a ML defensive 3B. at least not yet.
 
Isn't Brock Holt the real alternative to obtaining a new 3B? Certainly his 100 OPS+ at 3b would be more cost effective than Pablo's 110, but you don't know really what you are going to get with Holt, and you pretty much do with Sandoval, tho his potential upside is under-appreciated here I think.
 
As for 5/90 being crazy for Panda, of course it is, but so is the cost on every other FA too. You wanna save that money and play Holt at 3b so you can throw crazy money at some SPs. If it comes down to it, I would take my chances on Sandoval in 2018-19 over James Shields. Or put another way, I would bet that Sandoval offers more over the ready alternatives, than Shields would over the length of a 5 or 6 year deal.
 
Re Headley, at the risk of beating a dead horse, he is 2+ years older than Sandoval. Thus on a 4 year deal for Headley, you are buying his age 33 and 34 year. Buying age 33 and 34 seasons is generally a bad bet. He has (had?) a herniated disc in his back which scares me as much as Pablo's weight. Sandoval won't turn 33 until August of the 5th year of the deal. FAs as young as Sandoval just don't come around that often. Sandoval has a chance to be a useful player if he gets surpassed at 3b by someone else in the org, Headley really doesn't.
 
If the Sox got Headley and used the money smartly elsewhere, I wouldn't squawk, but a 4 year deal at what Headley is going to get also carries considerable risk.  
 

ArgentinaSOXfan

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Jul 16, 2005
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Stan Papi Was Framed said:
I'd certainly prefer that signing Sandoval doesn't mean not signing Lester, but perhaps both are possible.  and if the Sox don't bring in Sandoval, what is the alternative at 3B?  if Headley is actually a possibility, that would of course change things...
 
Well, thats why I commented about a strong rotation. I dont think that only Lester fixes that. We need more pitching. We will have two of our best hitters in their contract years (Cespedes and Napoli, of course if we dont trade either one of both of them), which I can see as a positive aspect. 
Castillo, Betts playing their first full season. They should provide a boost. IMO, Mookie is our best youngster, forget X and his hype. 
 

BarrettsHiddenBall

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Jul 15, 2005
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KillerBs said:
BHB, that doesn't sound like much of a plan to me...WMB, Cecchini, switch Bogie to 3b, bring up Marrero, try to find someone mid season -- a virtual recipe for disaster just like the one we just lived thru.
The plan is to improve the front-end pitching and get the offensive boost from the existing squad. Again, you can expect improvement from at least 2 or 3 OF spots, SS, 2B and 1B; there's no need to overreact and throw money at Sandoval just to 'do SOMETHING' about 3B. The 'disaster we just lived thru' wasn't caused by 3B woes, just exacerbated.
 
Edit: IOW, fix the pitching first then see what's left, and don't get tied down for too long for a non-elite player. I recognise some upside potential in bringing Sandoval to Fenway, but conversely I still haven't seen an explanation for why the past three years of decline aren't a concern.
 

KillerBs

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Nov 16, 2006
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But if you spend the Sandoval money on another SP, you still need a 3B.
 
One obvious route to building the 2015 team is sign Lester, sign Sandoval, deal Cespedes for another SP, and do what you can with the bullpen (Miller?) and back up catcher. That strikes me as the most direct route from A to B.
 
The alternative being offered appears to be sign Lester and Shields, keep Cespedes (and the other 5 OFers?) and find a cheap 3b from...well from somewhere. 
 
Is the difference between Shields and RDLR (or Webster, or Wright or Barnes etc. etc.) greater than the difference between Pablo and Holt/WMB/GC? What about in year 2, 3, 4 and 5? I prefer to bet on the younger position player and not the older pitcher, while liking the odds that we will find a good starting pitcher or two out of the plethora of relative kids knocking on the door.  
 

The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa

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Corsi said:
 

 

 
So it sounds like Pablo had dinner with Papi last night and the brass tonight.
 
 
Hopefully Pablo just came to Boston for some free dinners. But if the number is 5/90, I could live with that in this market as it wouldn't be crippling and would address a need. Not to mention he'd probably be a great fit for the clubhouse and provide some stability...I can't imagine the Will Dellmidbrooks stuff was constructive, nor was the volatility of inserting Drew, shifting X, etc.
 

chrisfont9

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KillerBs said:
BHB, that doesn't sound like much of a plan to me...WMB, Cecchini, switch Bogie to 3b, bring up Marrero, try to find someone mid season -- a virtual recipe for disaster just like the one we just lived thru.
 
I think the primary concern with Cecchini, aside from his AAA mediocrity at the bat, is that he is not a ML defensive 3B. at least not yet.
 
Isn't Brock Holt the real alternative to obtaining a new 3B? Certainly his 100 OPS+ at 3b would be more cost effective than Pablo's 110, but you don't know really what you are going to get with Holt, and you pretty much do with Sandoval, tho his potential upside is under-appreciated here I think.
Right -- part of Sandoval's appeal is that you know his floor, and it's respectable. His ceiling may or may not be something to get excited about, but he's proven, and a good defender. Nothing too bad will happen there. 
 
It's also consistent with how they built the 2013 team: a squad of versatile guys who weren't bad at anything, and in fact were competent or better at just about everything. Plus a playoff ace. Pretty much describes the Giants too.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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It seems the consensus hereabouts is that Sandoval is a good player but at what it's going to take to sign it's going to be an overpay.

Plan B seems to be Hedley .. Who's also a nice player but folks seem to think he could be had on a much cheaper contract. What is the basis for this? Have there been any published reports on what he might be seeking? Considering the MFY have said they want him back it's rather unlikely the Sox would a) win a bidding war and b) at a reasonable cost.

Plan C is Hanley .. Who I think is a much better player than either Panda or Hedley .. He's certainly a better hitter. But of course we have no idea what he wants either .. Or whether he'll be any good , or even happy at 3b

So I can see the rationale on Panda .. It appears he's genuinely interested in Boston .. And the alternatives have their own warts and unknowns.
 

mBiferi

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May 14, 2006
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BarrettsHiddenBall said:
This is why I don't like the idea of signing Sandoval to an extended deal. He's nowhere near Ortiz as a hitter right now (despite being over a decade younger) and has been declining for several years; by the time they would move him over, he's probably a league average hitter at best. If you're going to lock up your DH for one guy (not to mention the cash + roster spot), that's just not enough.
 
How many hitters are near Ortiz right now?
 
I really doubt that once Ortiz walks off into the sunset we'll lock up the DH spot again. I think it will be more of a revolving door, where people like Panda(if signed of course), Pedroia, etc can share duties.
 

Fireball Fred

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Jul 29, 2005
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Keeping guys like Sandoval from making upwards of $20m is the point of the luxury tax.
It's not going to do the job. The amount of money across baseball - not just for a few teams - is part of the problem (if it is a problem): another part is the growing gap between AAA and MLB, which places a premium on established veterans over untried young players. If an average starting player is 2 WAR, and that's $13-14 million, and you can't rely on apparently promising prospects like Middlebrooks, Bogaerts and Cecchini, you're going to have to pay - and that's especially true for a team seeking something very specific (decent-fielding LHH 3B).
 

phenweigh

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BarrettsHiddenBall said:
The plan is to improve the front-end pitching and get the offensive boost from the existing squad. Again, you can expect improvement from at least 2 or 3 OF spots, SS, 2B and 1B; there's no need to overreact and throw money at Sandoval just to 'do SOMETHING' about 3B. The 'disaster we just lived thru' wasn't caused by 3B woes, just exacerbated.
 
Edit: IOW, fix the pitching first then see what's left, and don't get tied down for too long for a non-elite player. I recognise some upside potential in bringing Sandoval to Fenway, but conversely I still haven't seen an explanation for why the past three years of decline aren't a concern.
There was an explanation offered upthread that the "decline" is related to his hamate bone injuries, and since the bones have been removed this particular injury cannot reoccur.  Who knows if that explanation is correct, but it certainly seems plausible and fits with his overall numbers in 2014 being dragged down by his slow start.
 

Al Zarilla

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phenweigh said:
There was an explanation offered upthread that the "decline" is related to his hamate bone injuries, and since the bones have been removed this particular injury cannot reoccur.  Who knows if that explanation is correct, but it certainly seems plausible and fits with his overall numbers in 2014 being dragged down by his slow start.
But his right hand hammate bone was removed in 2011 and the left hand one in May of 2012. Any effects from those operations should have been long gone by 2014. Also, the hammate bone references upthread, I believe, were about reasons he missed time, pointing out that all of his injuries weren't "fat related".

If you are to have faith in the Panda's hitting going forward, you probably have to discount his horrible 2014 start and concentrate on his rest of the year performance, including his torrid post-season. His early 2014 season poor hitting could have been just contract year trying too hard.
 

phenweigh

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Al Zarilla said:
But his right hand hammate bone was removed in 2011 and the left hand one in May of 2012. Any effects from those operations should have been long gone by 2014. Also, the hammate bone references upthread, I believe, were about reasons he missed time, pointing out that all of his injuries weren't "fat related".

If you are to have faith in the Panda's hitting going forward, you probably have to discount his horrible 2014 start and concentrate on his rest of the year performance, including his torrid post-season. His early 2014 season poor hitting could have been just contract year trying too hard.
I agree it was brought up in the context of pointing out that not all of his injuries were "fat related".  I could be recalling incorrectly and I'm not inclined to search 800+ posts to find it, but my recollection was it was also noted that it may take time for a player to get back to 100% after losing both hamate bones, so the key word in your post is "should".
 
Anyway, it's complicated with normal performance variation and his weight issues.  There is likely more in the decline than the hamate bone surgeries and recovery time.  I'm sticking with that it's a reasonable factor in explaining the numerical decline.  Or put another way, it wouldn't shock me to see an uptick in Pablo's performance in the next couple of years.  I certainly share the prevailing opinion that the back end of the contract is an overpay risk.
 
For the record, I'm ambivalent about a Pablo signing.  He really fills a need, but his weight problems give me pause.
 

grimshaw

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His 2013 and 2014 rates are pretty much the same
BABIP 301 and 302
BA 278 and 279
Line drive% 21.3 and 20.6
ISO .139 and .136
SLG .417 and .415
He's always been a bad ball hitter and swings at everything.  He swung at everythinger last year and that's pretty much the difference in his .obp.
 
I'm fine with this level of production at 3B with a potential power spike.  My guess is he came back from the hamate bone injury, didn't have quite the same pop and refined his power swing to fit the park.  It's learned helplessness if you're in a huge park and try to hit home runs as a middling power guy.
 

foulkehampshire

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grimshaw said:
His 2013 and 2014 rates are pretty much the same
BABIP 301 and 302
BA 278 and 279
Line drive% 21.3 and 20.6
ISO .139 and .136
SLG .417 and .415
He's always been a bad ball hitter and swings at everything.  He swung at everythinger last year and that's pretty much the difference in his .obp.
I'm fine with this level of production at 3B with a potential power spike.
 
For 20(ish) mil and 5+ years? Mehhhhh
 
I'm more worried about a defensive drop-off than an offensive one. Without above average defense, he suddenly looks very mediocre.
 

ivanvamp

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Jul 18, 2005
6,104
The Candidates for 3b (IMO):
 
Will Middlebrooks
- Status:  In the system, with a couple of years of MLB experience.
- Why you would be glad to have him as your 3b:  He has plenty of power, which is an increasingly rare commodity.  Pretty solid fielder.  Very inexpensive.  
- Why you would be disappointed to have him as your 3b:  He just doesn't get on base enough.  Strikes out a ton.  His short MLB career is heading in the wrong direction.  
- Why you would regret him being elsewhere:  He just might figure it out eventually, and if he does, he will be a very nice power bat.  It will be painful watching him hit 30+ home runs for someone else.
- Likely scenario:  In the Sox' system in Pawtucket, until they package him in a trade.
 
Garin Cecchini
- Status:  In the system, with virtually no MLB experience.
- Why you would be glad to have him as your 3b:  Really nice OBP player.  Decent glove.  Good LH bat that should play well in Fenway.  Obviously would cost the league minimum.  
- Why you would be disappointed to have him as your 3b:  Very little power (currently; of course, that may improve).  A real unknown in terms of MLB production.  Might end up being a waste for the Sox at this point.
- Why you would regret him being elsewhere:  He becomes a great .385 OBP and doubles hitter, with 15 hr power from the left side.  He'd be worth a ton and could make multiple all-star teams.  For someone else.  
- Likely scenario:  In the Sox' system in Pawtucket.  No idea how they fit both he and WMB in Pawtucket, but neither should go down to Portland.  Something's gotta give.
 
Pablo Sandoval
- Status:  Free agent. 
- Why you would be glad to have him as your 3b:  Very solid LH bat (he's a switch-hitter, but the Sox need LH bats).  Tremendous postseason success over his career.  Career 123 ops+.  Good fielder.  Hitting what should be his prime years.
- Why you would be disappointed to have him as your 3b:  He'll likely cost you 5-6 years at about $18 million per.  He struggles with weight issues.  His ops+ is on a four-year decline, which is scary as he enters his prime years (155, 123, 116, 111).  And as much as we talk about his home park hurting his success because it's not a hitter's park, his career splits are shocking:  Home (.313/.365/.488/.853); Road (.277/.328/.443/.771).  So he's significantly better in SF than he is elsewhere.  
- Why you would regret him being elsewhere:  He thrives away from SF.  Weight never becomes a problem.  He continues to rake and win championships.
- Likely scenario:  Signs with Boston for 6/102.
 
Chase Headley
- Status:  Free agent
- Why you would be glad to have him as your 3b:  Outstanding fielder.  Solid switch-hitter.  Career ops+ of 113.  Average bWAR of 4.0+ over the last 5 seasons.  
- Why you would be disappointed to have him as your 3b:  Doesn't really have power.  One great HR season (31 in 2012), but never more than 13 otherwise.  In 3 of the last 4 years he's failed to play more than 141 games.  
- Why you would regret him being elsewhere:  He plays at an all-star level for the Yankees, putting up solid ops+ numbers along with gold glove caliber defense.  While the Sox' 3b does bupkis.  That would be very frustrating.
- Likely scenario:  Signs with the Yankees for 4/66.
 
Hanley Ramirez
- Status:  Free agent.
- Why you would be glad to have him as your 3b:  Career ops+ of 132.  Tremendous offensive player.  Solid on-base guy with very good power.  Even has good speed, adding another dimension to the offense.  
- Why you would be disappointed to have him as your 3b:  He has never been a 3b, so he might not transition well.  In the past has had attitude issues.  He will be 31 next year, so the Sox would be signing him as he enters his decline phase.  
- Why you would regret him being elsewhere:  Hanley continues to rake at all-star levels, hitting 25+ homers, with .370+ on base percentages.  And we think about what he might have been in Fenway...
- Likely scenario:  Signs with the Yankees for 5/100.  Yes, them.  I don't believe FOR ONE SECOND that they aren't going to spend big money.  They're losing Jeter.  Hanley steps in at SS and does his thing in the Bronx.
 
Aramis Ramirez
- Status:  Currently with the Brewers, one year left on his contract at $14 million for 2015.
- Why you would be glad to have him as your 3b:  Still has pretty decent power and is an overall very good bat (ops+ last three years of 136, 127, 109).  He'd be a one-year bridge to Cecchini, which might be a perfect setup.
- Why you would be disappointed to have him as your 3b:  He'll be 37.  He's not super expensive, but he's not cheap either.  His offensive production has been in decline for a number of years, and it's very possible that he gives you very little this year.  
- Why you would regret him being elsewhere:  You wouldn't, really.  If he stays in Milwaukee, you don't think twice about it, unless the acquisition cost was so low, and if the Sox' 3b situation ends up sucking, then you'll wish you made the deal for him.  Otherwise, not an issue.
- Likely scenario:  Stays in Milwaukee for 2015.
 

moondog80

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Like many have already posted, I'm concerned about the drop in Sandoval's numbers.  But I also think there's an unrealistic perception of what 90 mil over 5 years will buy.  That's what Hunter Pence got last year.  Pence had been a little better (10.5 WAR over previous 3 years vs. 8.2 for Sanodval, though some of that is explained by Pence playing in 70 more games), but he was also 30 compared to 27 for Sandoval, and plays RF instead of 3B.
 
I'm sure the Sox' expectations for Sanodval are grounded in reality.  What is off is our sense of how much that costs.
 

jimbobim

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moondog80 said:
Like many have already posted, I'm concerned about the drop in Sandoval's numbers.  But I also think there's an unrealistic perception of what 90 mil over 5 years will buy.  That's what Hunter Pence got last year.  Pence had been a little better (10.5 WAR over previous 3 years vs. 8.2 for Sanodval, though some of that is explained by Pence playing in 70 more games), but he was also 30 compared to 27 for Sandoval, and plays RF instead of 3B.
 
I'm sure the Sox' expectations for Sanodval are grounded in reality.  What is off is our sense of how much that costs.
 
This + a million. McAdam was on MLB Network yesterday and bluntly said the Sox are 60 mill under the lux tax. What some people on here and in the boston press in general need to understand is that nor every 100 mill contract goes Crawfordian or Howardian. Also  while Pablo may not be "worth" a 100 mill there are far less 100 mill dollar players hitting the market then there are those contracts to be handed out. Plus slightly overpaying say 114 over 6 instead of 5 for 90 means very little in the grand scheme of things for what is the big market  of Boston and frankly should be expected in FA. Can you get burned by taking on extra years ? Absolutely. Look no further then the yanks. However, if you minimize the number of times you do so and avoid backloading you should be fine from a salary structure stand point 
 
I also don't get applauding the sanity of letting Ells walk and then saying 100 mill on Sandoval is a waste. Ells was 7 154 and his explicit goal was to beat CC's terrible contract. Sandoval is younger plays a premium defensive position for 3-4 years before any type of position change and there is no JBJ level prospect ready to move in.  
 

grimshaw

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moondog80 said:
I'm sure the Sox' expectations for Sanodval are grounded in reality.  What is off is our sense of how much that costs.
Exactly.  They aren't paying extra for a solid everyday player.  They're paying market value and apparently 5 years is the new 3 years.
 
I also don't see the Red Sox as an organization that allows fat guys to take the field.  He may have tuned out the Giants and they may have eased off of him because he was producing.  If John Farrell gets in his face in 2017 and tells him to hit the fat farm, he'll hit the fat farm.  Could be wishful thinking, but how many guys have come in way out of shape during this current regime and not been called out. 
 
This is when you sic Pedey on him.
 

ivanvamp

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Jul 18, 2005
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grimshaw said:
Exactly.  They aren't paying extra for a solid everyday player.  They're paying market value and apparently 5 years is the new 3 years.
 
I also don't see the Red Sox as an organization that allows fat guys to take the field.  He may have tuned out the Giants and they may have eased off of him because he was producing.  If John Farrell gets in his face in 2017 and tells him to hit the fat farm, he'll hit the fat farm.  Could be wishful thinking, but how many guys have come in way out of shape during this current regime and not been called out. 
 
This is when you sic Pedey on him.
 
I don't care if he's fat, so long as he's effective and productive.  If being fat somehow helps him play more comfortably, I'm fine with that.  The key is to not let his weight become an actual problem.
 

joe dokes

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grimshaw said:
 They aren't paying extra for a solid everyday player.  They're paying market value and apparently 5 years is the new 3 years.
 
 
 
And even if it is "paying extra," that's what happens when you have an acute need, which I think the Sox think they have at 3B (or SS depending on what they think of Bogaerts's future).
 

LeoCarrillo

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Ben has the numbers, too. And I bet he was at dinner last night choking down the bone of a sixth year or a salary near $20M per. 
 
This is more about floor than ceiling. There's nothing better coming in the near-future in FA. Let's presume by the interest in Panda that BC sees no solution in-house. Fixing the 3B hole allows BC to proceed with trades for pitching with better knowledge of which assets become more expendable (Cecchini, Marrero, whatever's left of WMB). Right now, 3B is a flat tire on this team. If they overpay by a third fixing it, well, that's not ideal. But 1. young; 2. lefty; 3. spray chart suggests Monster oppo fit; 4. can go to 1B/DH in a worst-case; 5. good clubhouse guy. 
 
Is it nuts to be throwing around $20 million per to fix a flat tire and get back on the road? Yes, no, maybe. 
 

absintheofmalaise

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The gran facenda
According to Seam McAdam, the Sox are preparing an offer for Sandoval.
 
 
 
Having already met with and made an offer to Jon Lester, the Red Sox Wednesday are readying an offer for another high-profile free agent who visited with them Tuesday: Pablo Sandoval.
     
According to a major league source, the Red Sox are set to formulate a contract offer for Sandoval, who remains their highest priority among free agents.
     
Sandoval spent most of Tuesday with the Red Sox, touring the ballpark and exploring the city. It was believed to be his first visit to Boston.
     
According to some who've spoken to the Red Sox in recent days, the club believes Sandoval's interest in them is genuine and not merely a tactic to gain leverage with his former team, the San Francisco Giants.
 

ivanvamp

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Jul 18, 2005
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What does everyone think about a minor deal for Aramis Ramirez, for one year, as a stopgap to Cecchini?  Ramirez probably still has enough left in the tank for one more solid season.  I don't think the acquisition cost for Ramirez would be prohibitive.  Maybe Middlebrooks plus another prospect?  If Ramirez turns out to be terrific and Cecchini isn't yet ready in 2016, maybe you can re-sign Ramirez for one more year.  If not, you move to Cecchini.
 
The risk there, of course, is that the good 3b players are snapped up this year, with nothing really good in the FA market for 2016, and so if Ramirez is done and Cecchini isn't ready, then 3b becomes a problem again next year.
 
But if Ramirez is solid and Cecchini ends up being ready for 2016, then this could be a pretty nice and inexpensive way to solve 3b for 2015 and the foreseeable future.
 

MakMan44

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ivanvamp said:
What does everyone think about a minor deal for Aramis Ramirez, for one year, as a stopgap to Cecchini?  Ramirez probably still has enough left in the tank for one more solid season.  I don't think the acquisition cost for Ramirez would be prohibitive.  Maybe Middlebrooks plus another prospect?  If Ramirez turns out to be terrific and Cecchini isn't yet ready in 2016, maybe you can re-sign Ramirez for one more year.  If not, you move to Cecchini.
 
The risk there, of course, is that the good 3b players are snapped up this year, with nothing really good in the FA market for 2016, and so if Ramirez is done and Cecchini isn't ready, then 3b becomes a problem again next year.
 
But if Ramirez is solid and Cecchini ends up being ready for 2016, then this could be a pretty nice and inexpensive way to solve 3b for 2015 and the foreseeable future.
He's already back with the Brewers. 
 
Seems you already knew this, misread your post. I can't see why the Brewers would opt into his contract and then trade him away though I've been wrong a few times this offseason. 
 

ivanvamp

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Jul 18, 2005
6,104
MakMan44 said:
He's already back with the Brewers. 
 
Seems you already knew this, misread your post. I can't see why the Brewers would opt into his contract and then trade him away though I've been wrong a few times this offseason. 
 
LahoudOrBillyC said:
Ramirez in under contract for $14M this coming season, FWIW.
 
Right.  And for one year, $14 million is very doable for the Sox.  Panda will likely come in at at least $18 million.  
 
I'm not a guy that loves Aramis Ramirez.  But if Panda or Hanley or Headley end up being too much, then pursuing this might be a good fallback.  
 
And yes, MakMan, maybe Milwaukee wouldn't want to make a deal.  But they do need a 3b, and maybe it made sense for them to re-sign Ramirez, but if a decent enough offer comes along, they feel that's worth it.
 

joe dokes

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LeoCarrillo said:
 
 
Is it nuts to be throwing around $20 million per to fix a flat tire and get back on the road? Yes, no, maybe. 
 
Not if the road goes on forever and the party never ends.
 

DourDoerr

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ivanvamp said:
 
Garin Cecchini
- Status:  In the system, with virtually no MLB experience.
- Why you would be glad to have him as your 3b:  Really nice OBP player.  Decent glove.  Good LH bat that should play well in Fenway.  Obviously would cost the league minimum.  
- Why you would be disappointed to have him as your 3b:  Very little power (currently; of course, that may improve).  A real unknown in terms of MLB production.  Might end up being a waste for the Sox at this point.
- Why you would regret him being elsewhere:  He becomes a great .385 OBP and doubles hitter, with 15 hr power from the left side.  He'd be worth a ton and could make multiple all-star teams.  For someone else.  
- Likely scenario:  In the Sox' system in Pawtucket.  No idea how they fit both he and WMB in Pawtucket, but neither should go down to Portland.  Something's gotta give.
Is Ceccini's projected lack of power due to his swing or a measure of strength?  Obviously, a weight room couldn't hurt, but does it seem like it could provide a real benefit and a boost in hr numbers?  Didn't get to see him play but once or twice, but everyone writes of future power concerns.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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DourDoerr said:
Is Ceccini's projected lack of power due to his swing or a measure of strength?  Obviously, a weight room couldn't hurt, but does it seem like it could provide a real benefit and a boost in hr numbers?  Didn't get to see him play but once or twice, but everyone writes of future power concerns.
I've read that Cecchini is very strong. He just doesn't have that much loft in his swing and doesn't produce enough back spin.
 

MakMan44

stole corsi's dream
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Aug 22, 2009
19,363
ivanvamp said:
 
 
Right.  And for one year, $14 million is very doable for the Sox.  Panda will likely come in at at least $18 million.  
 
I'm not a guy that loves Aramis Ramirez.  But if Panda or Hanley or Headley end up being too much, then pursuing this might be a good fallback.  
 
And yes, MakMan, maybe Milwaukee wouldn't want to make a deal.  But they do need a 3b, and maybe it made sense for them to re-sign Ramirez, but if a decent enough offer comes along, they feel that's worth it.
Yeah, maybe a Middlebrooks/Pitching prospect here would get their attention. Dunno. Personally I'm a fan of moving $$ before prospects at 3rd, but at a cheap package like that it couldn't hurt too badly.  
 

ivanvamp

captain obvious
Jul 18, 2005
6,104
DourDoerr said:
Is Ceccini's projected lack of power due to his swing or a measure of strength?  Obviously, a weight room couldn't hurt, but does it seem like it could provide a real benefit and a boost in hr numbers?  Didn't get to see him play but once or twice, but everyone writes of future power concerns.
 
From sox prospects.com (http://soxprospects.com/players/cecchini-garin.htm):
 
"[SIZE=8pt]Scouting Report: [/SIZE]Third baseman with strong lower half and room to fill out upper body. Sweet swing from the left side. Plus bat speed and hip rotation in swing mechanics. Upward swing path through hitting zone and creates solid extension to produce backspin when squaring offerings up. Shows ability to drive the ball to all fields with lift. Potential plus hit tool. Fringe-average to average power potential. Excellent strike zone judgment and discipline. Still can struggle with breaking balls and against left-handed pitching. Solid-average speed, but not likely to be a factor as he continues to physically develop. Played shortstop and second base in high school, but transitioned to third base as a professional. Soft hands. Needs improvement with reads off of bat. Can be stiff and slow with reactions. Solid-average arm, but can get sloopy with his footwork. Still needs work at 3B, but has the tools to become an average defender at the hot corner. Starting playing some LF during the 2014 season. High baseball IQ. Quick learner and makes adjustments. Ceiling of an starting caliber third baseman."
 

foulkehampshire

hillbilly suburbanite
SoSH Member
Feb 25, 2007
5,101
Wesport, MA
Snodgrass'Muff said:
I've read that Cecchini is very strong. He just doesn't have that much loft in his swing and doesn't produce enough back spin.
 
Youkilis made the adjustment. Cecchini is reportedly a very cerebral player, and I wouldn't be surprised if he could make a similar leap with time. 
 
Hell, if he could hit like Bill Mueller most of us would be very, very happy. Its not outside of the realm of possibility.
 

ivanvamp

captain obvious
Jul 18, 2005
6,104
MakMan44 said:
Yeah, maybe a Middlebrooks/Pitching prospect here would get their attention. Dunno. Personally I'm a fan of moving $$ before prospects at 3rd, but at a cheap package like that it couldn't hurt too badly.  
 
I hear you.  But if I understand things correctly, the Sox will soon be facing a 40-man roster crunch and will have to move some players anyway.  I'm not saying this is the best way to do it, but if Cecchini really could be the 3b of the future, and if they need to move some inventory anyway, and if Ramirez still has another good year left in him, this may be something worth pursuing.
 

ivanvamp

captain obvious
Jul 18, 2005
6,104
foulkehampshire said:
 
Youkilis made the adjustment. Cecchini is reportedly a very cerebral player, and I wouldn't be surprised if he could make a similar leap with time. 
 
Hell, if he could hit like Bill Mueller most of us would be very, very happy. Its not outside of the realm of possibility.
 
I think you don't necessarily need *power* out of the 3b spot.  I just think they need a good offensive player.  If Cecchini can be a .280/.370/.400/.770 hitter that hits about 12 homers and gets 40 doubles and plays solid defense, I think that's very interesting.  And that player would be pretty helpful.
 

DourDoerr

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Oct 15, 2004
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Thanks Snodgrass and Ivanvamp.  I was leaning towards continuing to develop Ceccini at third and this reinforces that.  It sounds like there's a decent chance Ceccini will develop enough power given ability to make contact.
 
I'd rather spend the Sandoval money elsewhere or bank it for a future signing.  I don't think you can correct a hitter who's been successful swinging outside the strike zone and that will exacerbate any decline in bat speed.  Plus the weight issues and it doesn't sound like a good bet for 5-6 years.  I just think it'll be enormously frustrating - especially a few years in - to watch Sandoval flailing at balls outside the zone. 
 
To block a couple of promising prospects with a suspect big money signing seems a waste.  Finding a bridge like Ramirez should be a priority as well as working with WMB.
 

gaelgirl

The People's Champion
SoSH Member
Feb 25, 2004
4,759
Sonoma, California
I suspect by the end of the week, we'll know where Sandoval ends up. Sounds like the Giants and the Red Sox will both make him an offer about the same time. Unless there's a mystery team, he'll be choosing between those two. 
 
I'm guessing he's going to be getting a lot of "don't go!" texts from Giants teammates today.
 

joe dokes

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Jul 18, 2005
30,801
DourDoerr said:
Thanks Snodgrass and Ivanvamp.  I was leaning towards continuing to develop Ceccini at third and this reinforces that.  It sounds like there's a decent chance Ceccini will develop enough power given ability to make contact.
 
I'd rather spend the Sandoval money elsewhere or bank it for a future signing.  I don't think you can correct a hitter who's been successful swinging outside the strike zone and that will exacerbate any decline in bat speed.  Plus the weight issues and it doesn't sound like a good bet for 5-6 years.  I just think it'll be enormously frustrating - especially a few years in - to watch Sandoval flailing at balls outside the zone. 
 
To block a couple of promising prospects with a suspect big money signing seems a waste.  Finding a bridge like Ramirez should be a priority as well as working with WMB.
 
They have a hole at 3b now, that they probably dont think Middlebrooks will ever fill, or that Cecchini can fill this year.   Someone has to play third. If Sandoval were heading into his age 30 season, I'd have a lot more concerns. Every FA has warts. If he gives them 3 years of 110-120 OPS+ adn a year or 2 above 100, I'd call it success.  I'd also like to think that someone like Ortiz told him, "It will suck if you suck; but it will suck a whole lot more if you suck and people think its because you're out of shape."
 
I think they should spend the money they've obviously got on Sandoval and Lester and then move some of the bodies they also obviously have for Hamels.  (while I'm sure that the real Ruben Amaro has probably been locked in a basement all winter to avoid trouble, I can hope that he escapes to do a Hamels for Craig, Ranaudo, Webster & Coyle deal.)
 

Pozo the Clown

New Member
Sep 13, 2006
745
Alex Speier's take on why the Sox prefer Panda to Hanley: http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2014/11/19/why-not-hanley-why-red-sox-are-targeting-pablo
 
Interesting Extract: "Makeup: A huge consideration. Sandoval is viewed as a clubhouse asset, a critical on-the-field and behind-the-scenes contributor to a championship culture in San Francisco. Ramirez, who required a not-insignificant amount of management as a Red Sox minor leaguer, became a polarizing figure with the Marlins. There were questions about whether he was a good teammate and disappointments with his effort level to the point where few of his teammates lamented his being dealt to the Dodgers in 2012.
The fact that the Dodgers show little urgency to bring him back further underscores some of those questions."
 
I realize that a portion of the SoSH contingent tends to loathe analysis that cannot be supported by stats/spreadsheets/quantifiable data, however I believe that in addition to the quantifiable (which Sox brass no doubt has reams and reams and more reams of) that the Sox interest in Pablo is also being driven by the following:
 
1) Sandoval's personality.  Call it a "joie de baseball vivre" (yes, I'm applying for a TM on this presently).  Victorino has it.  Gomes has it.  I can't back it up with any data, but I feel that it played a significant role (along with other, more quantifiable factors) in the wonder that was the 2013 Championship.
 
2) Sandoval's "marketability."  By this, I mean much more than just the Panda hats (I'm well aware that MLB merch is split among all teams).  I'm referring to the "larger-than-life" aspect to the Kung Fu Panda persona.  The marquee factor, if you will.  Like it or not, Kung Fu Panda will help put fannies in Fenway.  The (oft derided) pink hat contingent will be seduced by "Panda-monium" in a way that Hanley, Headley, Garin and Wombat could never achieve (tho' kudos to WMB for scoring the Dell).
 
3) Sandoval's "Limelight Uplift."  Like Papi, this guy just seems to rise to the moments on the Big(gest) Stage(s).  Others have posted the stats in this area.  Boston baseball, even regular season, is a pretty big stage.  There's always the question of who will thrive in this environment and who will "Crawford" in it.  The odds are that Pablo will thrive.
 
4) Sandoval's a "Swinger."  In the ever-changing game of baseball, the work-the-count approach may be a less effective tool than it was years ago.  With offense in decline and pressure on the umpires to speed up the game by expanding the strike zones, perhaps a Vlad-like approach is now a more valuable asset.  Especially against the upper echelon of hurlers from whom you're less likely to see a big, fat, grooved mistake.  This also applies to the post season when you're facing the best arms.  The ability to hit "bad balls" is a skill that not everyone possesses (see: Middlebrooks, Will).  
 
5) The MFY's aren't bidding (at least not publicly).  How often have the Sox had legitimate interest in a top-tier FA that the Yankees didn't also covet?  From all appearances this is a 2-horse race.  Sox and Giants.
 
Get it done, Ben!!!
 
 
Edit: spacing, grammar
 
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