The future at 3rd

[E5 Yaz]

I'm sure the Red Sox would not have a problem with 100/5 .. But , while trumping SF would it still be enough to,get him to leave a comfortable situation? I think it a little unlikely.

110/5 on the other hand. I don't think they'd want to go six years.

 
Which again raises the question ... Pablo Sandoval: $20M-$22M player???

 

[snowmanny]

The need for LH power is apparently something the Sox care about. So no Hanley.

Then they should consider acquiring a LH power hitter instead.  Sandoval is a decent LH hitter, but he is not a power hitter.
 
EDIT: Maybe I'm too harsh.  He slugged 461 as a LHH.  I'm thrown off by the fact that he can't hit RH at all.

 

[E5 Yaz]

one of the many things I never understand is why any fan would care how much a team spends on any player. If they feel they have the money, why on earth should I care. I'm not privy to their concession income, cable income, etc. plus, they can always sell the team for a billion bucks. And I'd love to have Sandoval to root for. He seems like a good player who's a fan favorite, with real enthusiasm, and he's a winner. It's none of my business if they want to overpay. I'd love him on the Sox. And if he helped them win for a few years, fine with me if they want to pay him an extra year when he's not so good, like the Yankees did with Bernie.

With all that being said, I hope he stays with the Guants. The fans love him, he's part of a great run of championships. It's just good for the sport if guys like him stay with their original teams
in my opinion. If it makes the Red Sox weaker at third base, I'll live with that with relative ease.

But it seems to me that to sign anyone that people in all these threads want to sign, it's gonna mean overpaying for them. So my advice would be to enjoy the player and ignore thesalary. Let the owners and Ben worry about that.

 
The only things that I question in this regard are: a) Does this screw up the salary structure for the team? (for instance, does giving Sandoval $20M on a team where the highest currnt salary is $16M make sense?); and b) Does it keep them from adding other pieces?

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Which again raises the question ... Pablo Sandoval: $20M-$22M player???

In a vacuum no .. but the value of a player to a team is not static. If he moves the Sox from 89 wins to 92 then he most certainly is worth that contract.

 

[glennhoffmania]

 Does it keep them from adding other pieces?

 
This is the key.  If Henry decides that he'll have a $250m payroll next year, sign everyone.  I don't give a shit.  But since we know that isn't going to happen it's all about allocation of resources.  Giving Pablo more than 10% of the budget may not be the best decision.

 

[BornToRun]

I'm sure the Red Sox would not have a problem with 100/5 .. But , while trumping SF would it still be enough to,get him to leave a comfortable situation? I think it a little unlikely.

110/5 on the other hand. I don't think they'd want to go six years.

I think I could live with 5/110 but I'd actually prefer to give him the same total value at 6 years. I think he's young enough that the extra year isn't too big of a risk. That's just me, though.

 

[benhogan]

one of the many things I never understand is why any fan would care how much a team spends on any player. If they feel they have the money, why on earth should I care. I'm not privy to their concession income, cable income, etc. plus, they can always sell the team for a billion bucks. And I'd love to have Sandoval to root for. He seems like a good player who's a fan favorite, with real enthusiasm, and he's a winner. It's none of my business if they want to overpay. I'd love him on the Sox. And if he helped them win for a few years, fine with me if they want to pay him an extra year when he's not so good, like the Yankees did with Bernie.

With all that being said, I hope he stays with the Guants. The fans love him, he's part of a great run of championships. It's just good for the sport if guys like him stay with their original teams
in my opinion. If it makes the Red Sox weaker at third base, I'll live with that with relative ease.

But it seems to me that to sign anyone that people in all these threads want to sign, it's gonna mean overpaying for them. So my advice would be to enjoy the player and ignore thesalary. Let the owners and Ben worry about that.

The Red Sox, like every business, works within a salary budget.
 
We want them to have as many good players as possible within that budget.
 
So any fan of the Red Sox, that is interested in their success, should be aware of the cost of players.  
 
The "its not my money" commentary shows a lack of awareness for how any business is run.

 

[soxhop411]

Nick Cafardo ‏@nickcafardo 7s7 seconds ago Hanover, MA
Interesting that word of Giants 5/90m "discussion" with Sandoval came out the same day Panda was in Boston.
 
https://twitter.com/nickcafardo/status/534834526502260737

 

[glennhoffmania]

I guess Nick doesn't understand that "discussions" can take place over a telephone.

 

[ehaz]

ivanvamp, I don't understand why you seem so certain that we must leave space for not a single one of our homegrown SP prospects in our rotation. I totally get that we can't leave room for more than one or at most two of them and still expect to compete, but zero seems kind of like overkill. Clay Buchholz as a fourth starter also seems like overkill. We don't need to add three SP's. Two is plenty, as long as they're good ones.

If it's possible, adding three pitchers is not a bad idea. We can break guys like RDLR and Barnes in through the pen, and Johnson/Owens/Rodriguez will have plenty of opportunities for spot starts when Clay tears a tendon in his finger pushing his daughter on the swing set. Some of the excess will also be traded. Joe Kelly will get a rotation spot but if he struggles, he could easily be supplanted. And remember, Iwakuma is a one year rental, perfect bridge to the Owens/Rodriguez/Johnson group.

 

[gammoseditor]

I guess Nick doesn't understand that "discussions" can take place over a telephone.

 
I think he understands that. I think he's calling it a bogus rumor to inflate the Red Sox offer.  I don't think that would be surprising at all.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

I guess Nick doesn't understand that "discussions" can take place over a telephone.

I'm sure he understands how telephones work, I think he's more likely hinting that someone is trying to drive up the price for the Sox.
 
 
edit:  or what gammoseditor said.  Stupid modem shut down when I hit reply.

 

[rodderick]

I'm sure he understands how telephones work, I think he's more likely hinting that someone is trying to drive up the price for the Sox.

 
Honestly, if a potential 5/90 offer is driving the price up at this point, it seems like people vastly overestimated Sandoval's market. That's the low end of what most thought he'd get.

 

[gaelgirl]

I highly doubt 5/$90 million is a bogus offer from the Giants. The Giants have been negotiating with him since the World Series ended and made their first (I assume) offer on or before November 6th. You would assume it was somewhere well above the 3/$40 million Sandoval rejected in Spring Training. The only thing that sounds slightly bogus is that 5/$90 million was what Panda wanted in Spring Training/is the deal that Pence got. 
 
I think at this point, the Giants would absolutely be close to that number. They are actively negotiating with him. Frankly, if that's what he'll accept I don't think the Red Sox have a chance of signing him. The Giants don't have to sell him on San Francisco: the fans absolutely love him no matter what he looks like, it's a great city, the weather is good, he's won three World Series rings with them already and the team doesn't look like it's going to fall apart anytime soon. If anything, they might be stronger next year with a healthy Matt Cain, Brandon Belt and Angel Pagan. 

 

[Zupcic Fan]

The Red Sox, like every business, works within a salary budget.
 
We want them to have as many good players as possible within that budget.
 
So any fan of the Red Sox, that is interested in their success, should be aware of the cost of players.  
 
The "its not my money" commentary shows a lack of awareness for how any business is run.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
But this isn't really like "how any business is run"  I'm not sure, for example, why some teams have such a constraining budget when their team is worth astronomically more than what they bought it for.  George bought the Yankees for 11 million dollars!  It seems to me that the only thing that could hurt that investment is if the team starts to stink, like the Mets have.  So if that means you exceed a yearly budget a few times to maintain excellence, so be it.  So if the Red Sox get to the point where the only way they can get Jon Lester or Sandoval, or anyone else is to overpay them, or else they go to someone else who is going to overpay them., it seems to me that it's riskier to not overpay them and start to field noncompetitive teams.
So it seems to me that in this environment, the decision you need to make is "Which players do I overpay?"  and to try to avoid the disaster the Dodgers got them out of.  
And all that, I'm sure, is what the owners and general managers need to worry about.  But in no way is it like "how any business is run"  If virtually any business tremendously exceeds it's budget, it will go out of business.   That won't happen to the  Red Sox.  There is no danger of that happening to them.  So if they Pay Sandoval 3 million more than he is worth or they give Lester a year more than they want to, they are probably making a wise rather than a foolish decision. If it makes them a better team, it seems to me, it can only help them financially.  
 
That's why I find the Stanton signing so interesting.  He is astronomically overpaid, I'm sure.  But it might be the Marlins' only hope to lure other players, to draw back fans, to claim to have a vision for the future.  And it isn't the 325 million we should focus upon, only the amount they have to pay him every year----that's all that impacts that budget you're talking about.
 
 

 

[jimbobim]

I like the 6 year 114 predicted by mlbtraderumors.com I would change it a bit though by having the guaranteed value as 90 with 24 mill depending on games played/weight considerations
 
one more year gets the AAV down to 15 if the bonuses aren't met while the AAV still stays under 20 (19) if all the bonuses are met. 

 

[JohntheBaptist]

Overpaying leads to a blown out salary structure, which leads to millstone contracts on the roster that can't go anywhere, which leads to a locked-up roster that presumably performs poorly and costs the team money. That's why they don't do it.
 
As for why it should bother us--you say to just avoid the disasters like the ones LAD got us out of, but obviously none of us know who those are beforehand, so the wrangling over the size of the contract is really an argument over the level of hedge against disaster. If it's a shorter and cheaper contract, it can't become a disaster, or is less likely to. The hemming and hawing then is really a commentary on how likely a given contract is to be a "disaster." Overpaying to get a FA (and others in the future), if that's the strategy, isn't a bad move in and of itself.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

 
Honestly, if a potential 5/90 offer is driving the price up at this point, it seems like people vastly overestimated Sandoval's market. That's the low end of what most thought he'd get.

 
In general, I think a contingent on SOSH is simply delusional when it comes to free agent salaries.  The numbers thrown around here sometimes seem so low as to not even be table stakes.  We seem stuck in this rut where people think $5 million is too much for a win, and there is very little seeming understanding that what you can hope to accomplish in free agency is narrowing every year -- when the dollars are so high that guys like Stanton and Goldschmidt are will to bypass FA for injury protection during their arb years, you have to recognize big ticket free agent supply is going continue to be reduced.
 
But with Sandoval, there's been almost a complete reversal in what people here will seemingly tolerate.  There's something about those cute pinchable cheeks that has it so people have lost their minds.  Going significantly above 5/90 for Sandoval is freaking crazy.  Not because he's a fatty, but because even in the crazy inflated market, he's not worth it.  He's a good switch hitting third baseman that's been good for about 3 wins a year in his last years, and probably will continue to do about the same for the next three years, after which it's anyone's guess.  5/90 is an extraordinarily generous contract for a guy like that.  It's the absolute ceiling of what I would consider reasonable.  Russell Martin just signed for 5/84, and the notion that Sandoval would be worth more is a little crazy.  But even if you view that as a comp, I can see why the Giants would be willing to pony up a little more.  People wear big Panda heads to the games.  He just won helped them win their third world series this decade.  They probably are in position to raise ticket prices. They made the decision to pay Pence 5/90, and to pay Sandoval less would probably cause some friction.  So, screw it, you throw a couple million more a year than he's worth if you're SF, and get it done.
 
But he's not worth that contract to anyone else, other than the Giants.  I've always liked Headley better anyway, and if the Red Sox are truly thinking 100 or 110 million for Pablo Sandoval, go make Chase Headley the happiest man in the Universe and keep the 30 or 40 million change.  This is simply crazy talk.  After the discipline they've shown with the Ellsburys of the world, and are seemingly trying to show with Lester, to pay Pablo Sandoval 100 million dollars is a head scratcher to me.   

 

[chrisfont9]

 
I think he understands that. I think he's calling it a bogus rumor to inflate the Red Sox offer.  I don't think that would be surprising at all.

The source is Crasnick tweeting something, which -- all due respect to Crasnick -- is not much of a source. This is all he said:
 
https://twitter.com/jcrasnick/status/534770663601766401
 
"He has discussed" is not the same as "Giants have a 5yr/90 mil offer on the table"

 

[benhogan]

Zupcic,
 
Please 'edit' and separate your commentary from my post, so it doesn't appear under my header...thanks

 

[glennhoffmania]

I'm sure he understands how telephones work, I think he's more likely hinting that someone is trying to drive up the price for the Sox.
 
 
edit:  or what gammoseditor said.  Stupid modem shut down when I hit reply.

Thanks, Captain Obvious. I like my explanation better though.

 

[Darnell's Son]

Thanks, Captain Obvious. I like my explanation better though.

Don't you know this is not the season for humor?

 

[BarrettsHiddenBall]

So it seems to me that in this environment, the decision you need to make is "Which players do I overpay?"  and to try to avoid the disaster the Dodgers got them out of.  
 

Yep; this is why posters are wary of overpaying for Sandoval -- they think Lester is the better overpay.

 

[ivanvamp]

The need for LH power is apparently something the Sox care about. So no Hanley.

Panda doesn't really provide LH power. He is a solid bat but not a lot of power.

 

[chrisfont9]

Panda doesn't really provide LH power. He is a solid bat but not a lot of power.

Sure, but 9th among 3b while playing in the league's most homer-suppressing ballpark. Plus his high is 25, which would be a very nice number in any park. So relatively speaking, he has plenty of power potential in Boston.
 
I know, I'm quibbling. We probably agree that he's more of a well-rounded offensive threat than a pure power bat.

 

[soxhop411]

Chris Cotillo ‏@ChrisCotillo 14s14 seconds ago
Source: #RedSox and Sandoval meeting again tonight after meeting during the day today. Earlier visit included trip to Fenway.

 

[BarrettsHiddenBall]

Sure, but 9th among 3b while playing in the league's most homer-suppressing ballpark. Plus his high is 25, which would be a very nice number in any park. So relatively speaking, he has plenty of power potential in Boston.
 
I know, I'm quibbling. We probably agree that he's more of a well-rounded offensive threat than a pure power bat.

25 HRs was in 2009. Since then he's averaged 16 per year, and his power is trending steadily downward. His on-base isn't particularly good either, so it's kinda hard to call him well-rounded. He's more of a Vlad type (see ball, swing at ball), just not as good.
 
Sandoval's not mud, and I can buy the idea that his bat control will allow him to take advantage of the monster, but he's not a great hitter. Not that he necessarily needs to be, at this point (at least not to be an upgrade on the Sox 2014 3B production), though you do see a lot of folks waving away any potential defensive decline/weight gain by saying "the Sox can just stick him at 1B/DH down the line". Put it this way, he's a above average hitter for 3B right now, but it's unlikely he'll be a good enough hitter to justify 1B or DH in four years.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Panda doesn't really provide LH power. He is a solid bat but not a lot of power.

I'm not so sure about that.  Get him out of AT&T where HRs for Ls are ~40% below average + the 25 foot walls in RF.  And instead of numerous games in Petco, Dodger Stadium and AT&T, he'd play in Yankee Stadium, Camden, Toronto, TB, I think he could raise that .461 SLG vs R up quite a bit.  Over the past 3 seasons, Panda has an .800+ OPS (136 wRC+) vs. R playing in that massive pitcher's park.  Would love to have this guy in the lineup, he's being highly underrated as if people aren't aware that he plays in the biggest pitcher's park in MLB with crap weather.
 
RCF: 421'
 

 

[ivanvamp]

Sure, but 9th among 3b while playing in the league's most homer-suppressing ballpark. Plus his high is 25, which would be a very nice number in any park. So relatively speaking, he has plenty of power potential in Boston.
 
I know, I'm quibbling. We probably agree that he's more of a well-rounded offensive threat than a pure power bat.

Yeah I think we agree. He'd definitely be a humongous offensive upgrade to what they have had the past couple of years at 3b.

 

[soxhop411]

Most likely nothing but he just followed Pedroia on twitter
 
https://twitter.com/KFP48/following

 

[soxhop411]

 

[BarrettsHiddenBall]

I'm not so sure about that.  Get him out of AT&T where HRs for Ls are ~40% below average + the 25 foot walls in RF.  And instead of numerous games in Petco, Dodger Stadium and AT&T, he'd play in Yankee Stadium, Camden, Toronto, TB, I think he could raise that .461 SLG vs R up quite a bit.  Over the past 3 seasons, Panda has an .800+ OPS vs. R playing in that massive pitcher's park.  Would love to have this guy in the lineup, he's being highly underrated as if people aren't aware that he plays in the biggest pitcher's park in MLB with crap weather.
 
RCF: 421'
 
 

Park effects don't explain the consistent offensive decline and, as long we're looking at splits, he's slugged better at home than on the road over the past 3 seasons. Also, contrary to popular myth Dodger Stadium is basically neutral, and slightly increases HR.

 

[Plympton91]

 This is simply crazy talk.  After the discipline they've shown with the Ellsburys of the world, and are seemingly trying to show with Lester, to pay Pablo Sandoval 100 million dollars is a head scratcher to me.   

I'm glad someone else said it.

Even if they have some internal simulation/scouting insight that says he'll add 15 percent to his production in Fenway, I find it unwise. Yesterday on MLB, somebody was quoting one of the legendary GMs as having a principle of paying only for what a player has shown himself capable of producing, and not paying for what you think you can turn a player into. Pablo Sandoval is a 3B with a 740 OPS over the past 2 years, which should have been in the center of his prime years of production. That is not what you pay $100 million.

 

[chrisfont9]

Most likely nothing but he just followed Pedroia on twitter
 
https://twitter.com/KFP48/following

It's certainly more encouraging than if he unfollowed Ortiz.

 

[Sampo Gida]

I'm glad someone else said it.

Even if they have some internal simulation/scouting insight that says he'll add 15 percent to his production in Fenway, I find it unwise. Yesterday on MLB, somebody was quoting one of the legendary GMs as having a principle of paying only for what a player has shown himself capable of producing, and not paying for what you think you can turn a player into. Pablo Sandoval is a 3B with a 740 OPS over the past 2 years, which should have been in the center of his prime years of production. That is not what you pay $100 million.

 
I remember another former Giant who came over to play 3B, went from a 98 OPS+ his last 3 healthy years (1 of which was with the Cubs)  to 119 OPS+ at Fenway.   Bill Mueller.  Not saying this is very meaningful, just saying Pablos numbers are likely to be much better here.
 
Also, 100 million does not go as far as it used to.  16 million AAV is barely in the top 100 salaries today.
 
My main issue with Pablo is his weight and what looks to be an early decline.   Hanley would be a better fit, as would Headley.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

This is probably a question for another thread, but in a world where Pablo Sandoval is worth upwards of $20M, isn't it getting close to the time to significantly increase the luxury tax threshold?

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

I don't love Sandoval, but he'd be a significant upgrade over the current yawning chasm at 3B.  and the question that comes to my mind is: if the Red Sox don't get Sandoval, what is plan B?  I'd be glad if it's Headley, but perhaps he's not going to be available (I, of course, do not know, but the Sox may have reason to believe he's reupping with the geriatric club residing in the Bronx).  Sandoval's weight is undoubtedly a concern, but he's 28, has been solid from the left side of the plate (i.e. against righties) for the past 3 years.  Fangraphs argues he'd be worth $94M over 5 years--and they even suggest 6 years wouldn't be crazy (I'd prefer to avoid 6 years personally).  and, again, if they don't get him, who plays 3B next year?

 

[ArgentinaSOXfan]

I believe we dont need Sandoval as long as we put together a strong starting rotation. And giving Sandoval the contract he will command in free agency is basically not getting enough pitching, at least what I would like. I know we could get creative dealing players and bringing some pitchers, but I dont like that plan. Of course, it could be our last resort.

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

I believe we dont need Sandoval as long as we put together a strong starting rotation. And giving Sandoval the contract he will command in free agency is basically not getting enough pitching, at least what I would like. I know we could get creative dealing players and bringing some pitchers, but I dont like that plan. Of course, it could be our last resort.

I'd certainly prefer that signing Sandoval doesn't mean not signing Lester, but perhaps both are possible.  and if the Sox don't bring in Sandoval, what is the alternative at 3B?  if Headley is actually a possibility, that would of course change things...

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
In general, I think a contingent on SOSH is simply delusional when it comes to free agent salaries.  
 
<snip>
 
But with Sandoval, there's been almost a complete reversal in what people here will seemingly tolerate.  There's something about those cute pinchable cheeks that has it so people have lost their minds.  Going significantly above 5/90 for Sandoval is freaking crazy.    

 
You're entitled to your opinion, of course....especially since I share it.
 
But let's be clear: if the idea that Sandoval is worth over $100M is a delusion, it's not a SoSH delusion. As more than one of us have noted, it's shared by Cameron at FG, the guys at MLBTR....people who aren't necessarily infallible but are pretty well-informed about the market.
 
 

and, again, if they don't get him, who plays 3B next year?

 
Garin Cecchini.
 
Yeah, not ideal. It would be really good to have some veteran to start the year so that the Sox could bring up Cecchini when he forces the issue rather than when the roster situation forces it.
 
But we're talking about a guy who hit a combined .277/.358/.453 between AAA and MLB after the All-Star break. That's not a superstar line, but it's good enough to merit a little less dismissal than Garin is getting here, especially considering the elite on-base ability he showed throughout the minors before hitting a hurdle in AAA.

 

[Zupcic Fan]

 

The Red Sox, like every business, works within a salary budget.
 
We want them to have as many good players as possible within that budget.
 
So any fan of the Red Sox, that is interested in their success, should be aware of the cost of players.  
 
The "its not my money" commentary shows a lack of awareness for how any business is run.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
But this isn't really like "how any business is run"  I'm not sure, for example, why some teams have such a constraining budget when their team is worth astronomically more than what they bought it for.  George bought the Yankees for 11 million dollars!  It seems to me that the only thing that could hurt that investment is if the team starts to stink, like the Mets have.  So if that means you exceed a yearly budget a few times to maintain excellence, so be it.  So if the Red Sox get to the point where the only way they can get Jon Lester or Sandoval, or anyone else is to overpay them, or else they go to someone else who is going to overpay them., it seems to me that it's riskier to not overpay them and start to field noncompetitive teams.
So it seems to me that in this environment, the decision you need to make is "Which players do I overpay?"  and to try to avoid the disaster the Dodgers got them out of.  
And all that, I'm sure, is what the owners and general managers need to worry about.  But in no way is it like "how any business is run"  If virtually any business tremendously exceeds it's budget, it will go out of business.   That won't happen to the  Red Sox.  There is no danger of that happening to them.  So if they Pay Sandoval 3 million more than he is worth or they give Lester a year more than they want to, they are probably making a wise rather than a foolish decision. If it makes them a better team, it seems to me, it can only help them financially.  
 
That's why I find the Stanton signing so interesting.  He is astronomically overpaid, I'm sure.  But it might be the Marlins' only hope to lure other players, to draw back fans, to claim to have a vision for the future.  And it isn't the 325 million we should focus upon, only the amount they have to pay him every year----that's all that impacts that budget you're talking about.
 
 

 

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

 
You're entitled to your opinion, of course....especially since I share it.
 
But let's be clear: if the idea that Sandoval is worth over $100M is a delusion, it's not a SoSH delusion. As more than one of us have noted, it's shared by Cameron at FG, the guys at MLBTR....people who aren't necessarily infallible but are pretty well-informed about the market.
 
 
 
Garin Cecchini.
 
Yeah, not ideal. It would be really good to have some veteran to start the year so that the Sox could bring up Cecchini when he forces the issue rather than when the roster situation forces it.
 
But we're talking about a guy who hit a combined .277/.358/.453 between AAA and MLB after the All-Star break. That's not a superstar line, but it's good enough to merit a little less dismissal than Garin is getting here, especially considering the elite on-base ability he showed throughout the minors before hitting a hurdle in AAA.

I like Cecchini.  just not sure he's ready yet.  also, even once his bat is ready (and he certainly had a nice close to the year), not sure about his glove.  But he is intriguing--just not sure if he ends up as a 3rd baseman when all is said and done (and also not 100% confident about penciling him in to start the year--admittedly I am feeling gunshy after last year when it comes to rookies and perhaps that is irrational, or not fully thought through)

 

[geoduck no quahog]

 
In general, I think a contingent on SOSH is simply delusional when it comes to free agent salaries.  The numbers thrown around here sometimes seem so low as to not even be table stakes.  We seem stuck in this rut where people think $5 million is too much for a win, and there is very little seeming understanding that what you can hope to accomplish in free agency is narrowing every year -- when the dollars are so high that guys like Stanton and Goldschmidt are will to bypass FA for injury protection during their arb years, you have to recognize big ticket free agent supply is going continue to be reduced.
 
But with Sandoval, there's been almost a complete reversal in what people here will seemingly tolerate.  There's something about those cute pinchable cheeks that has it so people have lost their minds.  Going significantly above 5/90 for Sandoval is freaking crazy.  Not because he's a fatty, but because even in the crazy inflated market, he's not worth it.  He's a good switch hitting third baseman that's been good for about 3 wins a year in his last years, and probably will continue to do about the same for the next three years, after which it's anyone's guess.  5/90 is an extraordinarily generous contract for a guy like that.  It's the absolute ceiling of what I would consider reasonable.  Russell Martin just signed for 5/84, and the notion that Sandoval would be worth more is a little crazy.  But even if you view that as a comp, I can see why the Giants would be willing to pony up a little more.  People wear big Panda heads to the games.  He just won helped them win their third world series this decade.  They probably are in position to raise ticket prices. They made the decision to pay Pence 5/90, and to pay Sandoval less would probably cause some friction.  So, screw it, you throw a couple million more a year than he's worth if you're SF, and get it done.
 
But he's not worth that contract to anyone else, other than the Giants.  I've always liked Headley better anyway, and if the Red Sox are truly thinking 100 or 110 million for Pablo Sandoval, go make Chase Headley the happiest man in the Universe and keep the 30 or 40 million change.  This is simply crazy talk.  After the discipline they've shown with the Ellsburys of the world, and are seemingly trying to show with Lester, to pay Pablo Sandoval 100 million dollars is a head scratcher to me.   

 
This post says it all for me. All I need to do is +1.
 
(on the other hand, the Yankees will be paying $21M for their 3rd baseman this year...}

 

[BarrettsHiddenBall]

if the Sox don't bring in Sandoval, what is the alternative at 3B?
 

Stand pat and spend the money on pitching. Yes, 3B was a massive hole last year, but a lot went wrong on offense last year. Castillo/Betts should upgrade the OF production regardless of whether they keep Cespedes and/or Victorino, Bogaerts should improve, plus you can cross your fingers for full, healthy seasons from Napoli and Pedroia. Give Middlebrooks one last chance to put it together (yeah I know) and have Cecchini in Pawtucket on a hair-trigger standby. If neither works, they can explore the trade market; switch Bogaerts over once more and bring up Marrero; or bring up Moncado
 
If they don't consider that acceptable, try for Headley on a more reasonable FA deal, or sign Hanley if he's OK with 3B (if you're going to overpay for a corner IF and lockup a roster spot for half a decade or more, get one that's an elite hitter), or sign Tomas and hope he's not the big-money Cuban that busts.
 
There's a case for signing Sandoval to a reasonable deal, but it's not the lack of alternatives.

 

[The Boomer]

Denny Doyle: In general, I think a contingent on SOSH is simply delusional when it comes to free agent salaries.  The numbers thrown around here sometimes seem so low as to not even be table stakes.  We seem stuck in this rut where people think $5 million is too much for a win, and there is very little seeming understanding that what you can hope to accomplish in free agency is narrowing every year -- when the dollars are so high that guys like Stanton and Goldschmidt are will to bypass FA for injury protection during their arb years, you have to recognize big ticket free agent supply is going continue to be reduced.
 
But with Sandoval, there's been almost a complete reversal in what people here will seemingly tolerate.  There's something about those cute pinchable cheeks that has it so people have lost their minds.  Going significantly above 5/90 for Sandoval is freaking crazy.  Not because he's a fatty, but because even in the crazy inflated market, he's not worth it.  He's a good switch hitting third baseman that's been good for about 3 wins a year in his last years, and probably will continue to do about the same for the next three years, after which it's anyone's guess.  5/90 is an extraordinarily generous contract for a guy like that.  It's the absolute ceiling of what I would consider reasonable.  Russell Martin just signed for 5/84, and the notion that Sandoval would be worth more is a little crazy.  But even if you view that as a comp, I can see why the Giants would be willing to pony up a little more.  People wear big Panda heads to the games.  He just won helped them win their third world series this decade.  They probably are in position to raise ticket prices. They made the decision to pay Pence 5/90, and to pay Sandoval less would probably cause some friction.  So, screw it, you throw a couple million more a year than he's worth if you're SF, and get it done.
 
But he's not worth that contract to anyone else, other than the Giants.  I've always liked Headley better anyway, and if the Red Sox are truly thinking 100 or 110 million for Pablo Sandoval, go make Chase Headley the happiest man in the Universe and keep the 30 or 40 million change.  This is simply crazy talk.  After the discipline they've shown with the Ellsburys of the world, and are seemingly trying to show with Lester, to pay Pablo Sandoval 100 million dollars is a head scratcher to me.   

 
A voice of  sensible reason.  Weirdly, I like the recent Padres players as much as anyone.  Headley could be a better bargain as a pure 3B.  Panda is only in this discussion because they probably see him as a switch hitting successor to Papi at DH which is probably not what they project long term for Headley.  Cashner and Ross are possibly undervalued.  Barnes, Renaudo, Webster, DLR and other prospects who represent some level of surplus to the Sox could project to be much better in the small market and forgiving outfield dimensions at San Diego.  Such moves are probably much less risky for the Sox than the big ticket free agents. Sandoval is in the discussion because they are considering him for when Papi stops playing.  Lester is likewise still in the picture because he was already one of theirs.  I much prefer that the Sox stay consistent because, in the long run, the organization will probably be better for this.

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

Stand pat and spend the money on pitching. Yes, 3B was a massive hole last year, but a lot went wrong on offense last year. Castillo/Betts should upgrade the OF production regardless of whether they keep Cespedes and/or Victorino, Bogaerts should improve, plus you can cross your fingers for full, healthy seasons from Napoli and Pedroia. Give Middlebrooks one last chance to put it together (yeah I know) and have Cecchini in Pawtucket on a hair-trigger standby. If neither works, they can explore the trade market; switch Bogaerts over once more and bring up Marrero; or bring up Moncado
 
If they don't consider that acceptable, try for Headley on a more reasonable FA deal, or sign Hanley if he's OK with 3B (if you're going to overpay for a corner IF and lockup a roster spot for half a decade or more, get one that's an elite hitter), or sign Tomas and hope he's not the big-money Cuban that busts.
 
There's a case for signing Sandoval to a reasonable deal, but it's not the lack of alternatives.

if Headley's available, I like him as an alternative--but perhaps he is not.  the others don't seem viable.  having Hanley plus X on the left side of the infield scares me.  so does WMB.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

From the latest FanGraphs chat:
 
 


9:25

Comment From Wrens Bleeding Hart
What version of Brock Holt do you believe in?
 





9:25

Paul Swydan: The crappy version.
 





9:25

Jeff Zimmerman: Agree

 

[BarrettsHiddenBall]

Sandoval is in the discussion because they are considering him for when Papi stops playing.
 

This is why I don't like the idea of signing Sandoval to an extended deal. He's nowhere near Ortiz as a hitter right now (despite being over a decade younger) and has been declining for several years; by the time they would move him over, he's probably a league average hitter at best. If you're going to lock up your DH for one guy (not to mention the cash + roster spot), that's just not enough.

 

[nvalvo]

I'm not so sure about that.  Get him out of AT&T where HRs for Ls are ~40% below average + the 25 foot walls in RF.  And instead of numerous games in Petco, Dodger Stadium and AT&T, he'd play in Yankee Stadium, Camden, Toronto, TB, I think he could raise that .461 SLG vs R up quite a bit.  Over the past 3 seasons, Panda has an .800+ OPS (136 wRC+) vs. R playing in that massive pitcher's park.  Would love to have this guy in the lineup, he's being highly underrated as if people aren't aware that he plays in the biggest pitcher's park in MLB with crap weather.
 
RCF: 421'
 

 
The issue is less with the dimensions than with the marine layer: cool, moist, heavy air, especially in the evenings. It's like playing baseball in the Coors Field humidor. Anecdotally, the park plays much more neutrally during day games. 
 
The contrast to the Fens in August couldn't be much sharper. 

 

[gaelgirl]

I, for one, hope you're all correct about Sandoval and the Red Sox decide to go in another direction.