The Mainboard MLB Lockout Thread

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OCD SS

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The way this is going, does anyone think that the owners are not going to look at poor 16 year olds in the DR and set a slotting system well below what they already pay in international pool money? And since the MLBPA is not going to have the QO come back, how hard are they really going to fight to increase spending in that area?
 

soxhop411

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The players' last offer was ENTIRELY reasonable. Owners are guaranteed to get one of the the things they want, and the owners don't even respond. That's ludicrous and just show the owners want a pound of flesh in some way.

The worst thing is, the international system is bad, and if the sides truly agree to play ball and negotiate until November, they could come up with a deal that is fair to the players but eliminate the shady deals cut unofficially when players are 12.
Yes and no.

The owners offers are based around the international draft as a main point of contention. They are saying "give us an international draft in the next couple of years or we're willing to have another labor stoppage." The players are saying "we emphatically don't want an international draft so let's completely take it off the table."

What this really means to me is that the QO issue isn't important to either side and they've been waiting to use it as a trade chip.
The owners did not even respond to their counteroffer before they canceled games

View: https://twitter.com/MarlyRiveraESPN/status/1501708305038782465
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I don't know what you see in that article but what I see is a clear articulation that: (1) the antitrust exemption is stupid, and indeed based on comical notions about the nature of professional sports; and (2) that getting rid of the antitrust exemption would not shut down the sport or require really radical changes in how it operates but would (3) modestly move the sport away from anti-competitive practices. And therefore (4) if a bunch of Congressional leaders got together and plausibly threatened to take away the antitrust exemption unless the owners bring this lockout to an end, the lockout would come to an end, right away.
I'm not going to go through chapter and verse but will say that if you came away with the conclusion that baseball's antitrust exemption means so much to owners that they would end the lockout just if there was a plausible threat to remove it, we'll just have to agree to disagree.

(I mean after going through things like labor issues like wages, hours, conditions of employment; reduction of teams; prohibiting teams from joining a league; ability to relocate; and the antitrust suit against the NFL and concluding that removing the antitrust exemption would have no effect, the article mentions one possible impact: "if a team was objecting to increased competition from having two teams in the same city.. . . the baseball immunity might save an anticompetitive restraint.")

At any rate, I'll just conclude by saying that I agree that there is no current plausible threat to take away the antitrust exemption so we'll won't find out what might happen.
 

Ale Xander

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To be that close on each set of those numbers and not be able to look across the table and say, "OK lets finish this." stupid.
That's a Blue Jays beat reporter?

How sure are you that he knows the 100% truth?
 

Murderer's Crow

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I hate these narratives "did not respond." That doesn't mean anything. If 30 owners come to an agreement on a way to move forward and the players tell them to eff off, they probably can't just turn around and be like okay jk. They have to go back to the drawing board or the players do.

What I haven't really seen is why the players are so against an international draft? What's the connection between a draft and less money? Do they just want the power to choose their team?
 

Ale Xander

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The past two days make me more confident in a deal sometime in the next two weeks. But it's hard to tell what's real and what's not in the Twitter smokescreen game.
I'm sorry. We're having another Marathon without a Red Sox game that's ending.
I have seen nothing to indicate that the owners want baseball in April or early May.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Yeah how important can the QO really be? It impacts like what, 10-15 players a year? I’m also sure they don’t really care about the international draft but it’s a valuable chit they have, and don’t want to give up.
 

Ale Xander

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I hate these narratives "did not respond." That doesn't mean anything. If 30 owners come to an agreement on a way to move forward and the players tell them to eff off, they probably can't just turn around and be like okay jk. They have to go back to the drawing board or the players do.

What I haven't really seen is why the players are so against an international draft? What's the connection between a draft and less money? Do they just want the power to choose their team?
If there's a draft, how does order get decided? If it's reverse order of finish, won't teams just double (or worse, if you think int'l talent is more of a sure thing than US HS kids) their incentive to tank?

If int'l kids can choose their team, they are likely to go to teams in larger and/or more int'l markets, like LA or NY. Are int'l kids going to choose Pittsburgh or KC? I doubt it.
 

Murderer's Crow

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If there's a draft, how does order get decided? If it's reverse order of finish, won't teams just double (or worse, if you think int'l talent is more of a sure thing than US HS kids) their incentive to tank?

If int'l kids can choose their team, they are likely to go to teams in larger and/or more int'l markets, like LA or NY. Are int'l kids going to choose Pittsburgh or KC? I doubt it.
If you read the owners initial offer, it calls for draft groups of 6 and a rotating draft order completely unrelated to a team's record.
 

jon abbey

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If there's a draft, how does order get decided? If it's reverse order of finish, won't teams just double (or worse, if you think int'l talent is more of a sure thing than US HS kids) their incentive to tank?

If int'l kids can choose their team, they are likely to go to teams in larger and/or more int'l markets, like LA or NY. Are int'l kids going to choose Pittsburgh or KC? I doubt it.
Not sure what you mean by the second part, that is what happens now and it is more about infrastructure down there and which clubs put in the time and money than bigger markets, I think. As for the first part, it's a kind of random order (crow beat me, specifics linked below).

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/03/mlb-international-draft-rumors.html
 

PedroKsBambino

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I hate these narratives "did not respond." That doesn't mean anything. If 30 owners come to an agreement on a way to move forward and the players tell them to eff off, they probably can't just turn around and be like okay jk. They have to go back to the drawing board or the players do.

What I haven't really seen is why the players are so against an international draft? What's the connection between a draft and less money? Do they just want the power to choose their team?
At least one reported proposal for an international draft I saw had hard-slotted bonuses. If I were guessing, it's the draft slotting (and the precedent for applying that to 'traditional' MLB draft) that the union really is opposed to moreso than international draft in concept. But that's only a guess

It is also true, as we saw from various players, that international draft can have pretty significant impacts particularly in latin america. I expect those can be managed, but there's likely a set of players for whom the concept---or at least how well it is implemented---is also a big deal
 

ColdSoxPack

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I hate these narratives "did not respond." That doesn't mean anything. If 30 owners come to an agreement on a way to move forward and the players tell them to eff off, they probably can't just turn around and be like okay jk. They have to go back to the drawing board or the players do.

What I haven't really seen is why the players are so against an international draft? What's the connection between a draft and less money? Do they just want the power to choose their team?
This is the question I have too. The players in question are not part of the players association. Why wouldn't the players union want to bring them into the fold? Is it the players from Central and South America that are dead set against it because they prefer to be bought up by the big market teams? I would like an expert answer to this. I would also like Harold Reynolds to STFU.
 

jon abbey

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This is the question I have too. The players in question are not part of the players association. My wouldn't the players want to bring them into the fold? Is it the players from Central and South America that are dead set against it because they prefer to be bought up by the big market teams? I would like an expert answer to this. I would also like Harold Reynolds to STFU.
Not totally sure what you mean, the players will be in the union fold when they make 40 man rosters, no matter how they got there (regular draft, international signings/draft, etc). The MLBPA right now is (seems to be) standing up for the rights of future union members, or at the least they aren't ready to agree to this system being rammed down their throats on short notice with so many other topics under discussion.
 

jon abbey

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At least one reported proposal for an international draft I saw had hard-slotted bonuses. If I were guessing, it's the draft slotting (and the precedent for applying that to 'traditional' MLB draft) that the union really is opposed to moreso than international draft in concept. But that's only a guess
The US draft already has pretty rigid draft slotting, and the current international system has tight caps on the amount a team can spend, so I don't think it's so clear what the MLBPA's objection is, except possibly including it at the last minute without a real attempt to study all the potential ramifications.
 

ColdSoxPack

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The US draft already has pretty rigid draft slotting, and the current international system has tight caps on the amount a team can spend, so I don't think it's so clear what the MLBPA's objection is, except possibly including it at the last minute without a real attempt to study all the potential ramifications.
This is a fair assessment. Maybe there will be more discussion around this.

Edit: I heard on the radio on the way home that only 14 players were given qualifying offers. The kids affected by the international draft will not be in MLB for years. We should have baseball now.
 

jon abbey

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Edit: I heard on the radio on the way home that only 14 players were given qualifying offers. The kids affected by the international draft will not be in MLB for years. We should have baseball now.
This is really not the way to look at things, but if the QO cost those 14 players $30M apiece (I have no idea, nor does anyone, as it's a hypothetical timeline), that is $420M total.
 

soxhop411

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The US draft already has pretty rigid draft slotting, and the current international system has tight caps on the amount a team can spend, so I don't think it's so clear what the MLBPA's objection is, except possibly including it at the last minute without a real attempt to study all the potential ramifications.
yes, see this NYT piece regarding the decline in (popularity) of baseball after PR prospects were forced to be in the draft

SAN JUAN, P.R. — This used to be the climax of baseball’s peak season in Puerto Rico. The storied winter league lured many of Major League Baseball’s biggest Puerto Rican stars back to the island — from Roberto Clemente and Orlando Cepeda to Roberto Alomar and Bernie Williams — and they would regularly play before tens of thousands of fans during what was otherwise their off-season.
But that scene no longer exists. Four years after being forced to cancel an entire season, the league has only four teams. And for the first time in its history, which dates to 1938, the Puerto Rican Baseball League does not have a team based in San Juan, the capital.
The league’s struggles are merely the most vivid manifestation of a more profound, and surprising, phenomenon playing out here: the decline of baseball in a place where it was long considered the primary pastime, if not a religion. After decades of populating major league rosters with All-Stars at every position, Puerto Rico had only 20 players on Major League Baseball rosters on opening day last season. Only two made the All-Star team. (By contrast, the 1997 All-Star Game included eight Puerto Ricans.)
“We can’t even compete in the Pan American Games anymore,” said the major leaguer Alex Cora, referring to Puerto Rico’s seventh-place finish in the eight-team tournament in October.
No one here disputes the diminished stature of baseball in Puerto Rico, and most agree on the culprit: Major League Baseball’s decision, in 1990, to include Puerto Rico, a commonwealth of the United States, in its first-year player draft. This means Puerto Rican players must wait until they have completed high school to sign a professional contract, and then they are going up against players from the United States and Canada in the draft.
Perhaps more important, major league teams have less incentive to cultivate talent in Puerto Rico because those players may end up with another team through the draft.
Catcher Ivan Rodriguez, 40, currently a free agent and playing for one of the Puerto Rican winter league’s four teams, is the last active Puerto Rican major leaguer to avoid the draft. Rodriguez, a likely Hall of Famer, signed with the Texas Rangers in 1988 at age 16.
“What is the difference between 1980 and 2011? The draft,” David Bernier, Puerto Rico’s former secretary of sport and recreation, said in an interview in his office here. “Nothing has changed but the draft. Everything else is the same.”
“The draft has had a large effect on the Puerto Rican baseball player,” said Alomar, who was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, N.Y., in July. “A lot of youngsters don’t have the economic resources to play and go to college. For me, it isn’t what is best for us.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/17/sports/baseball/puerto-rico-traces-decline-in-prospects-to-inclusion-in-the-baseball-draft.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&ref=baseball

more at the link
 

Murderer's Crow

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The US draft already has pretty rigid draft slotting, and the current international system has tight caps on the amount a team can spend, so I don't think it's so clear what the MLBPA's objection is, except possibly including it at the last minute without a real attempt to study all the potential ramifications.
They said by 2024, how is that not enough time to study potential ramifications?
 

curly2

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Jon Heyman: Players made an offer late today: They’d spend the season working on a world draft and if it didn’t work out, qualifying offers/free agent comp would be re-installed at year’s end. This was Manfred’s idea Tuesday night but was rejected because it came after MLB’s 6 pm deadline.

If this is true, it's insane. Take your own deal, Rob.
 

staz

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The cradle of the game.

Jon Heyman: Players made an offer late today: They’d spend the season working on a world draft and if it didn’t work out, qualifying offers/free agent comp would be re-installed at year’s end. This was Manfred’s idea Tuesday night but was rejected because it came after MLB’s 6 pm deadline.

If this is true, it's insane. Take your own deal, Rob.
I've read this 6 times, and it sounds like an agreement is imminent? Or what?
 

jon abbey

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They said by 2024, how is that not enough time to study potential ramifications?
I believe the idea was they agree on the specifics now and it doesn't go into effect until 2024, as opposed to discussing it until 2024 and putting in an agreed upon system then. That is a huge difference.
 

PedroKsBambino

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The US draft already has pretty rigid draft slotting, and the current international system has tight caps on the amount a team can spend, so I don't think it's so clear what the MLBPA's objection is, except possibly including it at the last minute without a real attempt to study all the potential ramifications.
There are reports that this was discussed as far back as January and also that MLB has said it was part of every proposal this cycle (whatever that may actually mean). So, it seems fairly unlikely the above is MLBPA's concern especially since the parties have known this is a potential issue for literally years. But none of us really knows.

I also wouldn't really characterize the MLB draft system as rigid slotting, since teams can (and do) spend above and below the slot number. It is true that MLB is already partway there, and I still can imagine MLBPA not wanting to end up wtih specific slotting. Amongst other reasons, specific draft slotting will impact the value of hiring an agent!
 

jon abbey

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jon abbey

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As I've said, and you perhaps see, the issue has been discussed for a while. How each party value it is, again as I've said all along, just a negotiation calculation. Your assertion has been that it wasn't discussed at all---that's the opposite of what Scherzer is saying.
Haha sure, if that's your takeaway. I hope John Henry gives you good seats after all this.
 

Bergs

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Not sure how the politics of this would break down in Congress -- baseball isn't a traditional union issue, so the typical Republican and Democrat positions on labor may not fully apply here. But note that changing the antitrust exemption would require 60 votes in the Senate, so for this to gain any traction it would have to be at least somewhat bipartisan.
The "screw these overpaid athletes" and the "anti-union crowd" Venn diagram are pretty much a circle. The politics would play out exactly as they would with any other effort to rein in the uber-wealthy.
 

ehaz

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Heyman has been a mouthpiece for the league this entire time. And this makes that even more clear. I mean Fernando Tatis Jr spoke out against the international draft as well… guess players should not be influenced by players like him…
Yup I'd take anything that Heyman or Nightengale say with a grain of salt. Heyman is a mouthpiece and I don't know if Nightengale has an agenda, but he just tweets faster than he thinks.

Drellich, Rosenthal, and Passan for CBA info.
 

ehaz

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I'm just catching up to today's back and forth but let me see if I have it:

- both sides got closer on core economics over last 48 hours.
- the international draft became a sticking point in negotiations.
- the MLBPA gave their latest counteroffer this afternoon
- MLB said "we're not going to respond, instead let's play Fuck, Marry, Kill: (1) the international draft; (2) qualifying offers; (3) re-negotiating a new CBA in 2 years. Only after you play our game will we promise to make you a comprehensive counteroffer."
 

jon abbey

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(I don't actually think this matters much, I think it's a threat with little actual bite because it's very unlikely the Senate would ever pass it as has been discussed, but maybe a bit of public pressure from Senators adds one percent of motivation to MLB to get this across the finish line.)
 

OCD SS

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At last week’s negotiations there was the last minute attempt to insert rule changes into the framework. Now an international draft mysteriously appears to derail the negotiations as the owners look for another concession to limit spending. Is anyone else sensing a pattern?

It probably makes sense for the sides to take a break and reconvene after discussing the options internally. Then in the eleventh hour the owners can can insist in-season player salaries should be reduced to the minor league baseline when they go down for rehab stints after an injury.
 

soxhop411

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(I don't actually think this matters much, I think it's a threat with little actual bite because it's very unlikely the Senate would ever pass it as has been discussed, but maybe a bit of public pressure from Senators adds one percent of motivation to MLB to get this across the finish line.)
Eh. This may actually spook the owners a bit. As the chair of the judiciary committee he is the one that oversees MLB’s anti trust exemption
Edit @jon abbey as a matter of fact there are already two bills that were introduced (house and senate) that if passed would remove their anti trust exemption.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/1111/all-info
 
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Gdiguy

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Hypothetically speaking, if Judiciary was interested in exploring whether legislation was needed to alter MLB’s antitrust exemption, they would probably have the power to subpoena MLB team finances, no?

(cough cough)
 

jon abbey

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FWIW, if the owners hadn't been treating the players so disrespectfully all along this winter (and before)", it would probably be a lot easier for the two sides to finish this, as I think it is true that the international draft as proposed probably has a roughly equal number of plusses and minuses, although that's easy for me to say with superficial knowledge and nothing at stake. As for respect, I don't even mean the actual proposals, although those two, the level of respect.

*"They need to stop treating us like we're idiots," one veteran player told ESPN.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33399780/they-need-stop-treating-us-idiots-how-mlb-salvage-season
 
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