The Michael McCorkle "Mac" Jones Thread

[Fishercat]

Yeah, nobody is saying that Mac is anywhere close to Herbert. That wasn't the point of my post. It was simply: How good is Herbert, REALLY? I think he's pretty good, but over three years the end results have been decidedly mediocre. We can point to other factors, but maybe Herbert doesn't have the ability (yet, anyway) to truly elevate his team and overcome all that?

I think your point on Herbert is instructive at least. Frankly, I don't think many QBs at all have an ability to elevate his team over those kinds of obstacles...and that's to defend both Mac and Herbert.

And I know all the Herbert excuses and I think they're valid - my stance is that most teams have these kinds of obstacles in different formats.

Like, I think most of us here are convinced Josh Allen is the caliber of QB you want - eye test, stats, etc. all pass muster. When did he become that GUY? 2020 I think most would say - when he had this third year in his coaching structure, got a bonafide no doubt #1 receiver as well as a pretty realible slot guy in Diggs and Beasley, both of whom played most or all of their games that season. Would Josh Allen be nearly as effective without Sean McDermott? Or without Stefon Diggs (I do not beleive he's missed a game in his Buffalo career). I'm sure he'd be good still but that helps a LOT and...Josh Allen hasn't made a Super Bowl yet. I bet he will - they seem too good not to, but this is Year Five and they may not be the best team in the division this year. Joe Burrow was another name brought up who I think passes SJH's "you know it when you see it test" (as does Herbert and Allen - I don't know if Mac does). Burrow had the huge leap in Year 2 with a very bad O-Line...Joe Mixon also played sixteen games, Jamarr Chase played 17, Tee Higgins 14, his top six targets missed 0, 1, or in Higgins case three games - and they did not go into the playoffs scaring many people. Chase missed a few games so far, but otherwise his other Top 6 targets all played most games. And he lost a SB as Aaron Donald at through his OL.

This is all to say that I think outside of a very small number of players - and I mean maybe 2-3 in the league at a time small - nearly every other QB no matter the tools is not going to overcome substantial structural obstacles to pilot a SB caliber team and even then sometimes it just becomes too much. Heck, Matt Stafford is a great example - top tier physical tools and won a SB last year but only after he left the Detroit disasterville.

Fans probably have to decide what to them, and the team, is good enough in a QB - I think if we're chasing prime Brady, Mahomes, or Wilson forever we're gonna be really sad for a long time.

Edit: Also, I know it's been said, we're in Year 2 right now. There are QBs we are discussing here who were very clearly there by Year 2 and there are QBs we're discussing who weren't but appear to be on the upswing now that some of those obstacles have been addressed. Like, Tua's made a massive leap in Year 3 (coaching changes and Tyreek Hill gotta help that), Josh Allen had a second big jump in year 3 - to Toe Nash's point below we don't know if Mac is gonna develop in that manner (if he can or will) and it's time will tell, but I'm hesitant to write off Mac Jones in the middle of year two with this much upheaval...also dealing with his own injury demons.

 

[Toe Nash]

Yeah, nobody is saying that Mac is anywhere close to Herbert. That wasn't the point of my post. It was simply: How good is Herbert, REALLY? I think he's pretty good, but over three years the end results have been decidedly mediocre. We can point to other factors, but maybe Herbert doesn't have the ability (yet, anyway) to truly elevate his team and overcome all that?

It doesn't really matter how good he is REALLY. He's good enough to be well worth a second contract and his ceiling is MVP-level.

You can watch a couple games of Herbert playing and know that he is a guy you want to build around. Those kinds of guys don't always win every MVP award but you know that he's not going to be a problem on the team. His floor is average and his ceiling is absolutely MVP. He also has insane tools as has been mentioned.

He got "rolled" by Jacksonville playing with a rib injury. He's already been a top 10 QB by a bunch of stats twice. You give him a second contract for whatever he wants and hope he builds on his incredible tools. He most likely will.

I'm frankly getting tired of you cherrypicking things to try to make weird points that our eyes are lying to us or whatever you're trying to say. These hypotheticals are not interesting. The problem with Mac is we just don't really know how he will develop and we can't speed up time.

 

[BaseballJones]

It doesn't really matter how good he is REALLY. He's good enough to be well worth a second contract and his ceiling is MVP-level.

You can watch a couple games of Herbert playing and know that he is a guy you want to build around. Those kinds of guys don't always win every MVP award but you know that he's not going to be a problem on the team. His floor is average and his ceiling is absolutely MVP. He also has insane tools as has been mentioned.

He got "rolled" by Jacksonville playing with a rib injury. He's already been a top 10 QB by a bunch of stats twice. You give him a second contract for whatever he wants and hope he builds on his incredible tools. He most likely will.

I'm frankly getting tired of you cherrypicking things to try to make weird points that our eyes are lying to us or whatever you're trying to say. These hypotheticals are not interesting. The problem with Mac is we just don't really know how he will develop and we can't speed up time.

I'm not even talking about Mac. I'm not really sure what the problem is here. I'm addressing SJH's point about how we can know if a guy is THE GUY. And I already said I'd take Herbert on the Pats in a heartbeat because I "see" the same things everyone else does.

And I'm not talking about hypotheticals. I've given the actual data from Herbert's entire career. That's the opposite of cherrypicking. It's giving the full data set.

Whatever....if you don't like what I'm saying, no problem.

EDIT: It's funny...in the post above yours, Fishercat says that my point is "instructive". And you think it's lame cherrypicking.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

I think we're all asking the wrong question. It's not whether Mac can be good enough to elevate the team to a SB, it's whether BB can win with a QB like Mac.

He doesn't need to be great, he needs to not stuck and I think BB will figure out how to win with him. It's the consistency of play that matters. The entire team is inconsistent right now, but having a QB that doesn't suck and is consistent makes the rest of the team consistent.

I think BB can win with a QB that:

1. Doesn't turn the ball over
2. Can avoid pressure
3. Doesn't kill the defense (short drives, turnovers, etc)

So far, Mac has been inconsistent in all these areas. If he can be more consistent, then it'll be easy to win games. I think BB believes Mac is coachable and can be at least the above. I have my doubts, but I'm not a world class football mind.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I asked this question in the Game Ball thread last week, and I don't believe anybody took it on.

If you could straight up trade the entire Pats offensive line, and all of their skill position players (not the QB), which teams in the NFL would do that trade with the Pats? Which teams would you not do it with?

Now, of the teams you wouldn't make that trade with, are they even close to 6-5?

Mac Jones is not getting a fair shake, because BB hasn't given him the help he needs in today's NFL to succeed. Period. BB got away with that for a long, long time with the GOAT, but Mac ain't the GOAT. Nobody is. Geno Smith is lighting it up, because he's got guys around him. Geno fucking Smith.

Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers can't beat anybody because he's lost his binkies. We were laughing at Tua around here not very long ago, and now he looks like an All-Pro with Hill and Waddle and a running game. Justin Herbert has been having a pretty down year, because Keenan Allen was out. That will change quickly.

Who wouldn't you trade for?

I'm very confident that if Mac was playing QB for Minnesota, or Cinci or Dallas or Miami or ............................this Pats team is in the mix for a divisional playoff game, even with Mac at the helm.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I'm not even talking about Mac. I'm not really sure what the problem is here. I'm addressing SJH's point about how we can know if a guy is THE GUY. And I already said I'd take Herbert on the Pats in a heartbeat because I "see" the same things everyone else does.

And I'm not talking about hypotheticals. I've given the actual data from Herbert's entire career. That's the opposite of cherrypicking. It's giving the full data set.

Whatever....if you don't like what I'm saying, no problem.

EDIT: It's funny...in the post above yours, Fishercat says that my point is "instructive". And you think it's lame cherrypicking.

I don't think it is cherry-picking but you don't really need stats to evaluate Mac vs Herbert. If you think a guy might be better than his stats, which is fair to say for Herbert, then... well, there is a reason Herbert's stats aren't better and it has to do with injuries, coaching, and personnel. His physical and mental tools on tape are > Mac's now. Wins and losses and QB rating in particular are not particularly useful stats anyway.

If you already brought up Herbert and you think he's the guy and you'd take him on the Pats what is the point of the stats? To show how football stats aren't particularly useful? Since 2020 of QBs with 500+ snaps he is 11th out of 39 for EPA per play. Jones is 22nd on that list. If we look at CPOE Jones is 9th and Herbert is 24th. Does that help you understand who is better? I have issues with CPOE. EPA can be contextual. Etc etc etc. Does it tell you who made the most of their offensive plays? Is there a stat that measures what percent of bigger plays they didn't hit? Football is an inherently film driven sport. Stats become more and more less helpful the more granular you get. Brady for example had some mediocre statistical years when he had shitty receivers and/or OL issues. Did that mean he was a bad QB that year? It's tough because on the one hand you need to use some sort of numbers to look at things but on the other hand none of the numbers are that helpful on their own in a team sport. We can argue about the degrees here.

My big complaint about Mac with post snap processing isn't really measurable by stats minus I like looking at stuff like turnover worthy plays. I also like looking at pressure rates. Or like what throws is he making vs not making. How is he handling pressure? Numbers only get me a tiny part of the way. The rest is film review. It's like 90/10. I think the issue people are having is you have a 90/10 typically but the other way around of stats and then of film. When you admit you wouldn't necessarily buy into the conclusions your stats tells you then why even bother posting them, you know? Not trying to be mean here. Just offering constructive feedback. A lot of times my posts are like "homework" so I have my own issues I try and work on.

 

[DJnVa]

It's not really up for debate that Herbert is much much better than Mac. 38 TDs in a season? Mac will be lucky to have that total after 3 full years at his current rate. And I like Mac well enough, but I'm also realistic.

I know you're just making a point, and that point is fair, but to think Mac Jones won't throw 10 more TD passes *before the end of next season* is a bit hyperbolic. Granted there could be an injury, but I'd take that bet.




Anywho, he hasn't thrown an interception in his last 119 passes and his interception rate is down to 3.0. Still too high, but it's getting closer to last season's mark of 2.5. He's now completing a higher percentage of passes than last season, with a slightly higher Y/A. His Y/C is slightly higher as well.

It's all about the OL:
--Last year his throws when he had less than 2.5 seconds in the pocket were 56% of this throws with a rating of 96.6. This year? 67% and rating of 83.9. He's getting so much less time and not doing as well when he it happens (new offense or whatever).

--When he has more time to throw he's been much better this season--Y/A up to 10.1 from 8.1 with a higher completion percentage. That's a BIG jump. When they protect him, he's been GOOD.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Rodgers is also not hitting reads he has hit before. He's performing worse vs years past and it can't be explained away with supporting cast. JTO had some great pieces about it on his Patreon. Rodgers is playing at a level worse than before and it isn't particularly close.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Rodgers is also not hitting reads he has hit before. He's performing worse vs years past and it can't be explained away with supporting cast. JTO had some great pieces about it on his Patreon. Rodgers is playing at a level worse than before and it isn't particularly close.

But why? What's changed? Did Aaron Rodgers forget how to make a read, or are guys not where he expects them to be? Has he lost faith in a wide receiving corps that leads the NFL in dropped passes (I think they were #1 heading into last week). Would these play like this early in the season have something to do with it?

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZ_uhVcVEXk

 

[ShaneTrot]

I asked this question in the Game Ball thread last week, and I don't believe anybody took it on.

If you could straight up trade the entire Pats offensive line, and all of their skill position players (not the QB), which teams in the NFL would do that trade with the Pats? Which teams would you not do it with?

Now, of the teams you wouldn't make that trade with, are they even close to 6-5?

Mac Jones is not getting a fair shake, because BB hasn't given him the help he needs in today's NFL to succeed. Period. BB got away with that for a long, long time with the GOAT, but Mac ain't the GOAT. Nobody is. Geno Smith is lighting it up, because he's got guys around him. Geno fucking Smith.

Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers can't beat anybody because he's lost his binkies. We were laughing at Tua around here not very long ago, and now he looks like an All-Pro with Hill and Waddle and a running game. Justin Herbert has been having a pretty down year, because Keenan Allen was out. That will change quickly.

Who wouldn't you trade for?

I'm very confident that if Mac was playing QB for Minnesota, or Cinci or Dallas or Miami or ............................this Pats team is in the mix for a divisional playoff game, even with Mac at the helm.

I can't remember who said this but the made-up line was basically BB had prime Randy Moss and Wes Welker whom he won a shit ton of games with and BB's response since has been, 'Never again.'

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I can't remember who said this but the made-up line was basically BB had prime Randy Moss and Wes Welker whom he won a shit ton of games with and BB's response since has been, 'Never again.'

In his defense, he promptly won a shit ton more games without either of those guys.

 

[ShaneTrot]

In his defense, he promptly won a shit ton more games without either of those guys.

He did have prime Gronk and a decent Edelman for most of those games.

 

[luckiestman]

I asked this question in the Game Ball thread last week, and I don't believe anybody took it on.

If you could straight up trade the entire Pats offensive line, and all of their skill position players (not the QB), which teams in the NFL would do that trade with the Pats? Which teams would you not do it with?

Now, of the teams you wouldn't make that trade with, are they even close to 6-5?


Who wouldn't you trade for?

Is Tennessee the only contender?

What about the Jets? I think the current line you have might be better. We have been killed by injuries. Starting RT, LT, RG out. Got a decent replacement for LT but he missed games. Our big FA LG signing has not been good in pass pro but is getting better.

yesterday we played

LT: Duane Brown (late summer signing)
LG: Tomlinson (hasn’t been good but hopefully trending up)
C: McGovern (fine, not as good as your guy)
RG: Herbig (was waived by Eagles this year. but I like him, shows you how deep they are)
RT: Mitchell (4th round development guy that pressed into duty because of injury)

Mitchell even got hurt and we have been playing scrap heap guys, was back yesterday.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

He did have prime Gronk and a decent Edelman for most of those games.

Sure, I would never minimize that. Of course he drafted Gronk and Edelman, so they were reasonable against the cap for a while.

I think the issue is that he doesn't want to pay the market price for already-established number 1 WRs.

 

[BaseballJones]

I don't think it is cherry-picking but you don't really need stats to evaluate Mac vs Herbert. If you think a guy might be better than his stats, which is fair to say for Herbert, then... well, there is a reason Herbert's stats aren't better and it has to do with injuries, coaching, and personnel. His physical and mental tools on tape are > Mac's now. Wins and losses and QB rating in particular are not particularly useful stats anyway.

If you already brought up Herbert and you think he's the guy and you'd take him on the Pats what is the point of the stats? To show how football stats aren't particularly useful? Since 2020 of QBs with 500+ snaps he is 11th out of 39 for EPA per play. Jones is 22nd on that list. If we look at CPOE Jones is 9th and Herbert is 24th. Does that help you understand who is better? I have issues with CPOE. EPA can be contextual. Etc etc etc. Does it tell you who made the most of their offensive plays? Is there a stat that measures what percent of bigger plays they didn't hit? Football is an inherently film driven sport. Stats become more and more less helpful the more granular you get. Brady for example had some mediocre statistical years when he had shitty receivers and/or OL issues. Did that mean he was a bad QB that year? It's tough because on the one hand you need to use some sort of numbers to look at things but on the other hand none of the numbers are that helpful on their own in a team sport. We can argue about the degrees here.

My big complaint about Mac with post snap processing isn't really measurable by stats minus I like looking at stuff like turnover worthy plays. I also like looking at pressure rates. Or like what throws is he making vs not making. How is he handling pressure? Numbers only get me a tiny part of the way. The rest is film review. It's like 90/10. I think the issue people are having is you have a 90/10 typically but the other way around of stats and then of film. When you admit you wouldn't necessarily buy into the conclusions your stats tells you then why even bother posting them, you know? Not trying to be mean here. Just offering constructive feedback. A lot of times my posts are like "homework" so I have my own issues I try and work on.

Actually, what I'm saying is that it's possible (not saying it IS the case, but just that it's possible) that Herbert is *worse* than his stats indicate. His stats are good. The on-field results in terms of wins and losses (which are really all that ultimately matters, right?) haven't been NEARLY as good as what his stats indicate could/should be the case.

That might have nothing to do with Herbert. But he wouldn't be the first guy to come along and put up big time passing numbers and, for whatever reason, not win nearly as much as you think he ought.

But I really am not looking to make this a deep dive into Herbert - I've just been responding to people as they jump in. I was originally mentioning him because SJH was talking about how we can know if a guy is THE GUY (caps all mine), and used Cousins as an example of a guy with good passing stats but not the winning to match those gaudy passing stats. I openly was just wondering if Herbert might be a similar guy.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

He did have prime Gronk and a decent Edelman for most of those games.

I love how BB gets zero credit for developing Edelman. He's never cited in the "can't draft WR" arguments.

 

[ShaneTrot]

I love how BB gets zero credit for developing Edelman. He's never cited in the "can't draft WR" arguments.

Or Meyers, Jakobi is a more than decent WR who is going to get paid this year.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Is Tennessee the only contender?

What about the Jets? I think the current line you have might be better. We have been killed by injuries. Starting RT, LT, RG out. Got a decent replacement for LT but he missed games. Our big FA LG signing has not been good in pass pro but is getting better.

yesterday we played

LT: Duane Brown (late summer signing)
LG: Tomlinson (hasn’t been good but hopefully trending up)
C: McGovern (fine, not as good as your guy)
RG: Herbig (was waived by Eagles this year. but I like him, shows you how deep they are)
RT: Mitchell (4th round development guy that pressed into duty because of injury)

Mitchell even got hurt and we have been playing scrap heap guys, was back yesterday.

Tennessee is a decent call. IMO, they are a bad 7-4 team. Like really bad. Their opponents in the games they've won are a combined 27-49-3. The only team with a winning record they've beaten is the powerhouse Washington Commanders. I think Derrick Henry is such a difference maker that it's hard not to make that trade, especially because guys like Burks and Westbrook-Ikhine have some talent that they could grow into. But I could go either way with them.

The current Jets, as in the guys that they had to start this week, I probably keep the Pats team. A healthy Jets offensive line, with Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, Carter, etc. I'm pulling that trigger every day and twice on Sunday.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I love how BB gets zero credit for developing Edelman. He's never cited in the "can't draft WR" arguments.

What evidence is there that BB "developed" Edelman? He drafted him 232nd overall, and he rode the bench until the Pats realized he had a similar skill set as Wes Welker, who was older and going to cost more. And he played the slot with Gronk on his inside taking away all of the coverage, and the GOAT throwing him the ball.

I mean, BB certainly recognized that Edelman could do what Welker did, so credit for that, but if we're pointing at Edelman as the receiver that BB hit on over a 20+ year career, I guess....

I think guys like Patten and Branch are more indicative of BB developing guys a bit.

 

[Shelterdog]

What evidence is there that BB "developed" Edelman? He drafted him 232nd overall, and he rode the bench until the Pats realized he had a similar skill set as Wes Welker, who was older and going to cost more. And he played the slot with Gronk on his inside taking away all of the coverage, and the GOAT throwing him the ball.

I mean, BB certainly recognized that Edelman could do what Welker did, so credit for that, but if we're pointing at Edelman as the receiver that BB hit on over a 20+ year career, I guess....

I think guys like Patten and Branch are more indicative of BB developing guys a bit.

You mean other than the whole "draft a raw athlete who never played wide receiver and turn him into the number two playoff receiver by yards" thing?

EDIT: But seriously if you can't give the Pats credit for developing a smaller school QB into a high level NFL receiver it's hard for me to imagine giving a coaching staff credit for developing any player ever.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

You mean other than the whole "draft a raw athlete who never played wide receiver and turn him into the number two playoff receiver by yards" thing?

EDIT: But seriously if you can't give the Pats credit for developing a smaller school QB into a high level NFL receiver it's hard for me to imagine giving a coaching staff credit for developing any player ever.

Thank you

 

[Super Nomario]

I like the bolded: more nuanced than my initial reaction. Mac having only one differentiated skill (theoretically high ceiling decision making ) means he likely only makes sense to Bill at a substantial discount to elite QB money. I think this is very compelling to Bill, and if he can get a B/B- QB for a decent discount to market, say 20-25m after expiry, it allows him to peanut butter the money around.

Looking at the current salary landscape, the only player of that quality in that price bracket is Tom Brady, and he's 45 and making exactly $25 MM. There are literally no QB starters with an APY between 15.358 (Baker) and 25 (Brady). The price for a B/B-minus QB starts at $30 MM and it's only going up over time.

I agree with your post, with the exception that I would lower that money number to 10-15 million. If he wanted to pay a B/B- QB $25 million, he would’ve made that trade for Garoppolo without trying to get him to re do his contract at a lower number first. I just don’t think he values the position as much as many fans do.

I don't know why you would say he doesn't value the position. He's continually expended draft capital on QB even when the starter was settled with Brady, and Brady was always well-paid, obviously. He went cheap for one year in a cap crunch and then used his highest first-rounder in more than a decade on another passer. The evidence to me suggests he values QB quite highly.

EDIT: also, I'm not sure when you wanted Belichick to trade for Garoppolo. Jimmy was SF's starter last year and presumably unavailable, and the Pats had a rookie Mac. This year, Jimmy was clearly available, but why would you trade for a guy making that kind of money and make him a backup?

Year 1: 6-9, 66.6%, 4,336 yds, 31 td, 10 int, 7.3 y/a, 98.3 rating
Year 2: 9-8, 65.9%, 5,014 yds, 38 td, 15 int, 7.5 y/a, 97.7 rating
Year 3: 6-5, 67.4%, 3,004 yds, 19 td, 7 int, 6.5 y/a, 92.7 rating
TOT: 21-22, 66.5%, 7.1 y/a, 88 td, 32 int, 96.5 rating

His numbers as it turns out are good but not earth-shattering, and the team results haven't been there, despite the fact that he's on his rookie deal and they should be able to build a really good team around him.

You have to consider team results in the context of the situation Herbert was put into. He joined a 5-11 team that had a very good QB in Philip Rivers, and that he was able to duplicate / slightly improve on the team results as a rookie is a feather in his cap. Last year, they improved again, posting a winning record and nearly making the playoffs despite a terrible defense. This year, again they're in the hunt with a winning record, and again the D stinks. I guess it's fair to say Herbert has been prematurely anointed into the Mahomes / Allen tier, if people are putting him there, but he's done very well so far.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I asked this question in the Game Ball thread last week, and I don't believe anybody took it on.

If you could straight up trade the entire Pats offensive line, and all of their skill position players (not the QB), which teams in the NFL would do that trade with the Pats? Which teams would you not do it with?

Are we talking health included and just for this year (so a promising young WR is less valuable than a vet who is better now)?
If so only considering teams in the playoff hunt, I think our O-line/Skill position players are as good or better than:
Jets, Chargers, Giants, Commanders, Falcons.

 

[luckiestman]

Are we talking health included and just for this year (so a promising young WR is less valuable than a vet who is better now)?
If so only considering teams in the playoff hunt, I think our O-line/Skill position players are as good or better than:
Jets, Chargers, Giants, Commanders, Falcons.

“in the hunt” makes it more fun. I only looked at teams better than 6-5.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

You mean other than the whole "draft a raw athlete who never played wide receiver and turn him into the number two playoff receiver by yards" thing?

EDIT: But seriously if you can't give the Pats credit for developing a smaller school QB into a high level NFL receiver it's hard for me to imagine giving a coaching staff credit for developing any player ever.

We are in a thread with people shitting on Mac early in his second year, with a shit roster, but yeah, let's credit the Pats with waiting over 4 seasons to develop Edelman. Shit, if the Pats had started Edelman as a rookie, folks in this thread would have run him out of town in year 2 for Bethel Johnson.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Are we talking health included and just for this year (so a promising young WR is less valuable than a vet who is better now)?
If so only considering teams in the playoff hunt, I think our O-line/Skill position players are as good or better than:
Jets, Chargers, Giants, Commanders, Falcons.

Health as if right now, not a consideration. Assuming full health, it's insane to think we're better than the Chargers. Seriously, Mike Williams, Ekeler and Keenan Allen are all better than anyone on the Pats. Carter would be our #1, and Josh Palmer would be #2.

The Falcons might be interesting, with CPat, London, Kyle Pitts. I think Mac succeeds more with those guys. More on this tomorrow.

 

[luckiestman]

Health as if right now, not a consideration. Assuming full health, it's insane to think we're better than the Chargers. Seriously, Mike Williams, Ekeler and Keenan Allen are all better than anyone on the Pats. Carter would be our #1, and Josh Palmer would be #2.

But how is the line? And is Ekeler better than the Pats RB? That’s close imo.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Health as if right now, not a consideration. Assuming full health, it's insane to think we're better than the Chargers. Seriously, Mike Williams, Ekeler and Keenan Allen are all better than anyone on the Pats. Carter would be our #1, and Josh Palmer would be #2.

The Falcons might be interesting, with CPat, London, Kyle Pitts. I think Mac succeeds more with those guys. More on this tomorrow.

I mean, health matters because we're comparing performance, and who cares who the guys not playing are?. Williams and Allen if healthy are better yes (not sure I totally agree on the current Ekeler over Rham or even Harris, both are better runners, Ekeler receiving), Carter and Palmer are scrubs, neither is as good as Jakobi or Parker, maybe they're better than Agholor, but that's probably generous. The bigger thing though is.... Their O-line is HORRIFIC right now.
Atlanta... we have much better RBs, and better WRs (particularly 2-5), they have Pitts, their line is better, but not by much when both teams are healthy.

Also, if we're swapping QBs, I think we have 8+ wins if we swap QBs. Mac is 4-5, and he has been a major part of none of the wins, his best game was in a loss. Herbert is a much better QB, and even with the devastated offense due to injuries they'd have a lot more wins if they had our top 5 defense instead of their bottom 5 defense.

Mac Jones isn't a top tier QB, swapping him into other teams might protect him a little, but he probably doesn't elevate any of them (except maybe Atlanta, even then not sure, a lot of their offense has been based on QB rushing and RPOs).
The only team that is pretty good, that I think clearly would be better with Mac Jones is the Jets, and that's mostly because Wilson was so bad.

Edit- I'd also say, defense matters. Our defense is excellent so despite line issues, Mac is asked to do very little in most games, where a lot of other QBs are asked to do far more if they want to win (which is why wins are a dumb QB stat).

 

[j44thor]

Are we talking health included and just for this year (so a promising young WR is less valuable than a vet who is better now)?
If so only considering teams in the playoff hunt, I think our O-line/Skill position players are as good or better than:
Jets, Chargers, Giants, Commanders, Falcons.

If Breece Hall is healthy the NYJ skill position players are easily better than NE. Garret Wilson is already better than any NE WR and Elijah Moore is probably better than any NE WR. Take out Hall and the drop-off from Rham/Harris to Michael Carter is pretty steep.
Commanders have Gibson/Robinson while good aren't quite as good as Rham/Harris but McLaurin is in another class than any WR NE has, seriously might be the most underrated WR in the NFL given he has consistently produces despite some of the worst QB play throughout his career. That one is at worst a toss-up for me but I'd lean WAS.
Giants don't currently have an OL and have no skill position players outside the Alpha Barkely who is much better than Rham/Harris but without a semblance of a functioning OL he can't do much. The WRs make NE look good by comparison.
Chargers skill players are vastly better than NEs across the board, not worth discussion really. Falcons are an interesting one, decent collection of RBs though I'd rather have Rham/Harris, London/Pitts are probably better than anything NE has but ATL really doesn't know how to use either.

Still the only skill position grouping I wouldn't take over NE would be Giants without at least giving it some thought.

If we extend this out further CHI/HOU/CAR are easy no's. Det is probably a no but Williams/Swift is on par with Rham/Harris and AMRSB is a better WR than anything NE has along with an elite OL, perhaps best in NFL. Honestly think I just talked myself into swapping DET with NE mostly on the strength of their OL and assuming Swift can be fixed.

Saints offense is pretty bad, Olave/Kamara are about the extent of it probably taking NE over them. Den has better WR with Jeudy/Sutton but RBs are trash with Javonte going down, lean NE. Both offenses tonight are arguably better than NE, PIT has Harris/D Johnson/Pickens/Friermuth and IND has J Taylor/Pittman/Pierce/Campbell.

The current LAR offense is a tire fire, no RBs, no WRs even adding Kupp back I still probably prefer NE offense.
By my count the no doubters are CHI/HOU/CAR/LAR/NYG/NO
Beyond that I think an argument can be made for every other offense in the NFL.

What makes Mahommes so impressive is the fact I don't think the KC skill players crack the top 10, Kelce is all world but after him it is a collection of spare parts at RB and WR. He does have an excellent OL though so that certainly helps.

 

[luckiestman]

I mean, health matters because we're comparing performance, and who cares who the guys not playing are?. Williams and Allen if healthy are better yes (not sure I totally agree on the current Ekeler over Rham or even Harris, both are better runners, Ekeler receiving), Carter and Palmer are scrubs, neither is as good as Jakobi or Parker, maybe they're better than Agholor, but that's probably generous. The bigger thing though is.... Their O-line is HORRIFIC right now.
Atlanta... we have much better RBs, and better WRs (particularly 2-5), they have Pitts, their line is better, but not by much when both teams are healthy.

Also, if we're swapping QBs, I think we have 8+ wins if we swap QBs. Mac is 4-5, and he has been a major part of none of the wins, his best game was in a loss. Herbert is a much better QB, and even with the devastated offense due to injuries they'd have a lot more wins if they had our top 5 defense instead of their bottom 5 defense.

Mac Jones isn't a top tier QB, swapping him into other teams might protect him a little, but he probably doesn't elevate any of them (except maybe Atlanta, even then not sure, a lot of their offense has been based on QB rushing and RPOs).
The only team that is pretty good, that I think clearly would be better with Mac Jones is the Jets, and that's mostly because Wilson was so bad.

Edit- I'd also say, defense matters. Our defense is excellent so despite line issues, Mac is asked to do very little in most games, where a lot of other QBs are asked to do far more if they want to win (which is why wins are a dumb QB stat).

The Jets would be better but not much better record wise. Zach is 5-2.

 

[Cellar-Door]

The Jets would be better but not much better record wise. Zach is 5-2.

True, and Flacco played decently in his 2 losses. So yeah the overall idea that Mac is being held back by his supporting cast is definitely not very realistic (which honestly we knew the moment they won 2/3 when he was out). He's not being HELPED much by his supporting cast, but he's also not helping them.
Overall though, I think people REALLY underrate our players on offense. Our RB pairing is excellent, we lack a top tier #1 WR, but we have multiple guys who would be the #2 a lot of places and probably 4 guys who would be at least top 3. This isn't even close to one of the worst skill groups we've had in the last 10 years.

 

[lexrageorge]

Agree that the biggest problem with the WR/TE group is that there are no game changing talents. While alone not sufficient, having a Jefferson and Lamb or Kupp covers up a lot of sins. I don't think Belichick disagrees either. The current corps is good enough for slots 2-4 on most rosters.

The OL is a problem; has been since training camp. Probably a bottom third unit in the league. Expect some holes to fill for next season with the likely departures of Wynn and Brown and no understudies waiting in the wings.

 

[luckiestman]

The OL is a problem; has been since training camp. Probably a bottom third unit in the league. Expect some holes to fill for next season with the likely departures of Wynn and Brown and no understudies waiting in the wings.

I have a tough time believing the Pats Oline is that bad from the games I have seen. Not because they are good but because Oline play around the league is really bad.

 

[BaseballJones]

Agree that the biggest problem with the WR/TE group is that there are no game changing talents. While alone not sufficient, having a Jefferson and Lamb or Kupp covers up a lot of sins. I don't think Belichick disagrees either. The current corps is good enough for slots 2-4 on most rosters.

The OL is a problem; has been since training camp. Probably a bottom third unit in the league. Expect some holes to fill for next season with the likely departures of Wynn and Brown and no understudies waiting in the wings.

I think BB is hoping that Thornton is that type of game-changer. He has the quickness, the raw speed, the height, and the hands to be that kind of player.

 

[lexrageorge]

I think BB is hoping that Thornton is that type of game-changer. He has the quickness, the raw speed, the height, and the hands to be that kind of player.

Unfortunately, Thornton is not on a good trajectory. Yeah, it's early, and he was injured. But WR's usually show promise early in their careers; haven't seen that from Thornton outside of preseason, which matters not.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I have a tough time believing the Pats Oline is that bad from the games I have seen. Not because they are good but because Oline play around the league is really bad.

I'd say they were mid-tier to low mid when healthy (say 16-22 range?) and then that one week where everyone was hurt they were probably bottom 5, when Andrews is out they are probably 25-28? But yeah, I think a lot of people on this board just spent almost 2 decades with consistently top of the league O-lines and don't realize that this is not horrific by NFL line standards, just not top 10 like they usually have been.

 

[lexrageorge]

I have a tough time believing the Pats Oline is that bad from the games I have seen. Not because they are good but because Oline play around the league is really bad.

Pats QB’s have been sacked 10th most time in the league. Sacks aren’t everything and some of them are on the QB. But the OL hasn’t impressed me either via stats or eye test.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

Unfortunately, Thornton is not on a good trajectory. Yeah, it's early, and he was injured. But WR's usually show promise early in their careers; haven't seen that from Thornton outside of preseason, which matters not.

The team also is stacked with vet receivers. Agholor, Meyers, Parker, Bourne. None of those guys are premiere receivers, but unlike almost all of the rookie receivers mentioned earlier in this thread there isn’t a lot of space on the Pats for a rookie receiver to grab snaps.

 

[SMU_Sox]

We are in a thread with people shitting on Mac early in his second year, with a shit roster, but yeah, let's credit the Pats with waiting over 4 seasons to develop Edelman. Shit, if the Pats had started Edelman as a rookie, folks in this thread would have run him out of town in year 2 for Bethel Johnson.

Isn’t this a non sequitur? People can be shitty for being impatient. That shouldn’t have anything to do with giving the coaching staff credit for developing Edelman.

Health as if right now, not a consideration. Assuming full health, it's insane to think we're better than the Chargers. Seriously, Mike Williams, Ekeler and Keenan Allen are all better than anyone on the Pats. Carter would be our #1, and Josh Palmer would be #2.

The Falcons might be interesting, with CPat, London, Kyle Pitts. I think Mac succeeds more with those guys. More on this tomorrow.

Meyers is better than Carter and it’s not even remotely close. Meyers is a top 30-40 WR.
Edit at the worst he’s top 50 and those two aren’t.

I would rather have Rham than Ekeler long term and think they are a lot closer than you’re giving credit for. For what they do offensively Rham is the better back.
Parker had been good this year too. He’s at the same level as Palmer this year. Same ballpark.

 

[j44thor]

Isn’t this a non sequitur? People can be shitty for being impatient. That shouldn’t have anything to do with giving the coaching staff credit for developing Edelman.




Meyers is better than Carter and it’s not even remotely close. Meyers is a top 30-40 WR.
Edit at the worst he’s top 50 and those two aren’t.

I would rather have Rham than Ekeler long term and think they are a lot closer than you’re giving credit for. For what they do offensively Rham is the better back.
Parker had been good this year too. He’s at the same level as Palmer this year. Same ballpark.

Meyers and Palmer are much closer in comparison than Palmer and Parker. Agree Carter isn't really in the discussion though he has had a good season.
Palmer has 3 more catches (50/47) but 19 less yards (552/571) than Meyers in the same GP and both have 3 TDs on the season. Very, very similar stat lines this season.
Parker has only 21 catches compared to 50 for Palmer but Parker does have 420 rec yards for an absurd 20 yards per catch though only 1 TD.

Parker is a poor mans Mike Williams, Palmer and Meyers are very close but there is no NE comparison to Keenan Allen when healthy.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Meyers has 9 GP vs Palmer 10 GP from Pro Football reference. 63.4 vs 55.2 yards per game. 9.2 vs 7.4 yards per target. Meyers is a top 5 WR blocker in the game. I was a big Palmer person. I was super high on him vs consensus. He’s not at the same level as Meyers yet. Meyers is the far superior route runner too. Palmer could get there! But he’s not there yet.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Parker is maybe a tick below: 42ish yards per game with a nice 12.4 yards per target. He’s been feast or famine during games but that’s going to be his role.

 

[Super Nomario]

If Breece Hall is healthy the NYJ skill position players are easily better than NE. Garret Wilson is already better than any NE WR and Elijah Moore is probably better than any NE WR.

I liked Moore coming out, but he hasn't done anything in his NFL career to elevate him over the NE guys. Corey Davis is pretty good. They don't have much depth and our TEs are better, probably our OL too.

By my count the no doubters are CHI/HOU/CAR/LAR/NYG/NO
Beyond that I think an argument can be made for every other offense in the NFL.

Green Bay, right? Jacksonville I would say is worse. I think there are another handful of teams (DET, NYJ, TEN, PIT) where you could argue either way. IND is kind of like us in that their WR are OK and their OL was supposed to be good but hasn't been. TB and LV should be a lot better than us but have been very injured so they're probably similar. WAS has McLaurin but our guys are a lot deeper.

Probably a sober discussion of this and we're below average in offensive supporting cast but not wildly below average. Like maybe 20th? Low 20's? Which tracks with the team being 18th in points, 21st in yards, 23rd in points per drive and yards per drive.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

Meyers has 9 GP vs Palmer 10 GP from Pro Football reference. 63.4 vs 55.2 yards per game. 9.2 vs 7.4 yards per target. Meyers is a top 5 WR blocker in the game. I was a big Palmer person. I was super high on him vs consensus. He’s not at the same level as Meyers yet. Meyers is the far superior route runner too. Palmer could get there! But he’s not there yet.

Jakobi has also had not great QB play

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Jakobi has also had not great QB play

We're now down to comparing Jakobi, the #1 receiver in New England, to Palmer/Carter, who are the #4 and #5 options in the San Diego offense.

Am I the only one noticing this?

And I also made the mistake of underrating Austin Ekeler like so many have in this thread. It's wrong. The dude is putting up Roger Craig like numbers, has never averaged less than 4.2ypc in his career, and already has 80 catches and 12td's this season, coming off 1,500+ scrimmage yards and 20td's last year.

He may not be the most flashy back, but the dude is a baller.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

The current LAR offense is a tire fire, no RBs, no WRs even adding Kupp back I still probably prefer NE offense.
By my count the no doubters are CHI/HOU/CAR/LAR/NYG/NO
Beyond that I think an argument can be made for every other offense in the NFL.

Thank you, because this is the point I'm making all along. I can grant you those 6 teams as no doubt worse than NE at Oline and skill positions.

That's 6 out of 32 teams. That means Mac, a 2nd year QB, is playing with an offense around him that arguably doesn't crack the top 25 in the NFL, but we're asking him to play like a top 10, maybe top 15 guy. Yet somehow, the Pats are still sitting there at 6-5. I'm not even a huge Mac fan, but I think from an unbiased view, the guy is doing about as much as he can do with the steaming pile of shit that BB, the GM has put around him.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Thank you, because this is the point I'm making all along. I can grant you those 6 teams as no doubt worse than NE at Oline and skill positions.

That's 6 out of 32 teams. That means Mac, a 2nd year QB, is playing with an offense around him that arguably doesn't crack the top 25 in the NFL, but we're asking him to play like a top 10, maybe top 15 guy. Yet somehow, the Pats are still sitting there at 6-5. I'm not even a huge Mac fan, but I think from an unbiased view, the guy is doing about as much as he can do with the steaming pile of shit that BB, the GM has put around him.

He isn't being asked to play like a top 15 guy though... he's being asked not to fuck up generally. He has a top 3 defense.

The PATS are 6-5... but that's 4-4 with Mac and 2-1 without him... does that mean that Zappe is better? Or hell, Zach Wilson is 5-2 as a starter this year with a worse offense, does that mean he was doing the best he could?

QB record is a dumb thing to base anything on. Mac Jones' performance has not been good. Now... he has shown some signs of life recently, and he's young enough that maybe he'll be a long term starter, but his struggles this year say as much if not more about him than the surrounding talent (which is similar to last year's).

Blaming the offensive talent when it is mediocre (While there are 6-7 no doubt worse, there are probably another 8-10 in the same range as NE, it's a mediocre talent pool not a terrible one) is a disservice to evaluating the QB. Other QBs can and have done more with average talent. Mac has been a bottom 3 starter with mid to low-mid talent around him, that says something, as does the same talent doing just fine (2-1 with an OT loss) without him.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Isn’t this a non sequitur? People can be shitty for being impatient. That shouldn’t have anything to do with giving the coaching staff credit for developing Edelman.

My response to the original poster wasn't about the "coaching staff" or the "Patriots." My response was to the assertion that BB, himself, had developed Edelman.

If the post was that McDaniels and Brady developed Edelman, I'd have no argument with that. What did BB do to develop Edelman in some major way, other than giving him playing time after Welker was gone? BB has been terrible at drafting wide receivers, and almost as bad at improving wide receivers from their floor, IMO.

And I love BB in every other respect.

 

[SMU_Sox]

My response to the original poster wasn't about the "coaching staff" or the "Patriots." My response was to the assertion that BB, himself, had developed Edelman.

If the post was that McDaniels and Brady developed Edelman, I'd have no argument with that. What did BB do to develop Edelman in some major way, other than giving him playing time after Welker was gone? BB has been terrible at drafting wide receivers, and almost as bad at improving wide receivers from their floor, IMO.

And I love BB in every other respect.

Ok well if that’s how you want to play it then we shouldn’t give BB credit for any other position aside from maybe QB. Head coaches rarely develop guys like their positional coaches and the coaches they see in the off-season. Development is a multiple coaching effort. Positional coaches, offensive or defensive coordinator, situational coordinators, off-season private coaching is HUGE too. For OL I’d argue they develop more in the off-season with stuff like technique. So sure, Bill doesn’t do a lot to develop most people. He will go over and coach up players and units during games and practices which helps. But… the HC delegates development to other positions. That’s just par for the course.

If that’s your point then I agree with you. Development is not a one person thing. Better hire and cultivate the right staff though…

 

[Deathofthebambino]

He isn't being asked to play like a top 15 guy though... he's being asked not to fuck up generally. He has a top 3 defense.

The PATS are 6-5... but that's 4-4 with Mac and 2-1 without him... does that mean that Zappe is better? Or hell, Zach Wilson is 5-2 as a starter this year with a worse offense, does that mean he was doing the best he could?

QB record is a dumb thing to base anything on. Mac Jones' performance has not been good. Now... he has shown some signs of life recently, and he's young enough that maybe he'll be a long term starter, but his struggles this year say as much if not more about him than the surrounding talent (which is similar to last year's).

Blaming the offensive talent when it is mediocre (While there are 6-7 no doubt worse, there are probably another 8-10 in the same range as NE, it's a mediocre talent pool not a terrible one) is a disservice to evaluating the QB. Other QBs can and have done as more with average talent. Mac has been a bottom 3 starter with mid to low-mid talent around him, that says something.

The Pats aren't asking him to play like a top 15 guy. The folks in this thread, week in and week out are asking him to do so. I was at the Jets game last week, and watched the conditions he was throwing in, and how he managed that game, and I thought he was really, really good. Open SoSH and well, it sounds like he was the worst QB in the NFL at the time. This week, he's blasted around here for taking a sack, in a game where he put up a 120 rating.

And the Pats defense will not be top 3 much longer, in any respect. The Sam Ehlingers, Zach Wilson's, Jacoby Brissett's and Jared Goff schedule is done. They've faced 5 good quarterbacks this year, and they are 0-5, and have given up 150 points. Josh Allen twice, Kyler, Burrow and Tua are all coming up. This defense better hope for some shitty ass weather.

There are nowhere near 8-10 in the same range as New England. If there were, folks could name them.

And we aren't even getting into the conversation that Mac is being "coached up" by Matt Patricia and the whole coordinator situation is a joke.