The Offense

[cshea]

There was some game thread chatter and frustration over the Bruins lack of goal scoring and I thought it may be worth discussing and exploring a bit.

Right now the Bruins are averaging 2.35 goals per game, which places them 23rd in the league in scoring. Since 11/1 they've only managed to score more than 2 goals in 3 of 14 games. Do we think this is a slump or indicative of a deeper problem? At even strength, despite the injuries, the Bruins remain one of the top possession teams in the league with a 53.1 CF%, good for 6th in the league. They're attempting 57 ES shots per game, again, good for 7th. So they're getting looks, but it's not translating into goals. The team ES PDO is an even 100.00 which suggests that this is what they are and they aren't unlucky. The PP has been ice cold (17%, 19th in the league) of late so there is room for improvement there (if they can ever get on the PP, but that's another story). So do they ride it out and hope that the goals start going in, or do they need to make player changes? My initial reaction is that they need an upgrade on the wing.

 

[Silverdude2167]

Until Krejci and Chara are healthy I think they need to ride it out before we can say player changes are needed.
 
Missing your top line center will hamper your offense and Chara was such a big part of the PP last year, that you would hope he could help improve it this year as well.
 
For a Stats perspective I would look for their shooting percentage to increase somewhat as it is very low this year.
2010 - 9.05
2011 - 9.80
2012 - 8.16
2013 - 9.87
2014 - 7.82
 
The lack of a true scorer may really hurt them though. I supported the Seguin trade when it happened, and I still think it was a good move to make but his shooting percentage of 17.8 is absurd this year (it should regress) and would be really helpful. If he could stop scoring so many goals that would make me feel better.

 

[Salem's Lot]

The first step is to get Krejci back. Most NHL teams would struggle to score with their number 1 center out or playing hurt since training camp. I hate the Seguin trade but I think this offense is missing a guy like Horton much more then they're missing Seguin given their style of play. With the way they want to play they need a big winger to cycle the puck that also has the ability to come off of the boards and beat a goalie. Right now they just don't have that skill set. It's having a huge effect on Lucic's game as well. Lucic produces offensively by getting in on the forecheck, cycling the puck and getting open shots either through Krejci finding him, or the defense having to respect a goalscorer on the other side. He's not a first line player unless he's playing with first line talent. When he is playing with those type of players he brings a great element to a top line. They need to get Krejci back and make a trade for a guy to fill the "Horton role", and I think that should take care of the problem.

 

[jk333]

The "Horton role" was filled by Iginla last year. This year the Bruins are near the cap and couldn't afford him. To me, that's the big difference for the offense. Both Iginla and Horton scored 25-30 goals on 12-15% shooting; and that's a nice shooting percentage in this offense. Eriksson has only shot about 7% for the Bruins.
 
The other problem with the offense is also in Salem's post. Lucic has been really quiet this year and over the past 15 games with Krejci, he only has 4 points. This isn't a new problem either; it's a small sample but in 12 previous games without Krejci he has 0 points with only 1.22 shots per game. Lucic was also effective with Savard. Without a center he's less effective.
 
My overall point is if the Bruins need another scorer, Krejci may be the more important piece of the Krejci/Lucic line. Therefore, replacing Lucic could be an option. Lucic can be a force and reducing cost on the 3rd or 4th lines maybe preferable, but if not, Lucic appears to be more replaceable than Krejci or other players.
 
Here's a quote from a great article that talks about these points: 

 Lucic is the second-highest paid forward on the roster, trailing only Bergeron. One could fairly make the argument that Lucic is paid $6 million annually to do more than just score goals, but when Krejci’s not out there on the ice, it feels like the B’s suffer the double-whammy of losing Lucic as a weapon, to boot.

Article - http://alongtheboards.com/2014/11/is-milan-lucic-too-dependent-on-david-krejci/
 

 

[SoFloSoxFan]

I supported the Seguin trade when it happened, and I still think it was a good move to make but his shooting percentage of 17.8 is absurd this year (it should regress) and would be really helpful. If he could stop scoring so many goals that would make me feel better.

 
As long as Seguin has the accuracy skills to shoot from the blue line, bounce it off a defenseman's stick and through the 5 hole for a PP goal like he did tonight, I see no reason why it should regress.

 

[Toe Nash]

 
As long as Seguin has the accuracy skills to shoot from the blue line, bounce it off a defenseman's stick and through the 5 hole for a PP goal like he did tonight, I see no reason why it should regress.

Well, Seguin is leading the league in shots as well and shooting 12% for his career. 
 
Anyway, the Bruins want to win games 3-2 but that's not going to happen when your best Dman is out and you get outCorsi'd by 30 (and outshot by 20). The defense is kind of the problem, but Seidenberg's possession numbers have improved a bit, so I'm willing to see what happens with Chara back so Seidenberg can see better matchups. Hamilton has stepped up and Trotman has actually put up good possession numbers in limited time as well so I don't think all is lost there.
 
For the offense, having a 4th line with skill would help but I guess that idea got thrown out the window at some point after they talked about letting Thornton go. Campbell's Corsi% is 43% at even strength and no one else outside the 4th line with more than a couple games played is below 50%. He really needs to go.
 
Otherwise, see what happens with Chara and Krejci back and hope you can put it together for the playoffs. Not sure what else there is to do when they're up against the cap. Trading Lucic for Eberle may be a very slight upgrade but it's not going to do wonders especially if they had to add prospects or picks.

 

[lexrageorge]

I think the lack of scoring is a fundamental problem with the roster construction right now.  They essentially lost Iginla and Krejci, and while the Bruins were a depth team with 3 scoring lines last season, they didn't have any players that were of the caliber of those two.  One of those problems will get fixed if and when Krejci returns to health.  But they still have problems.  
 
I think the issue with the 4th line is that they've tried to rotate guys in that line to boost its scoring since the start of the training camp, but it hasn't worked.  Gagne hasn't really produced; Griffith showed the ability to score, but he hasn't earned the trust of the coaches.  Not sure what happened to Matt Fraser.  Caron is a known quantity, and what we do know is that he's not the answer.  Kelly's had to play the 3rd line with Krejci out.  So Campbell stays because he's part of their penalty kill pairing with Paille.  
 
I'd be OK with the team trying to work out a trade; the good news is that they have time on their side to some extent.  The lockout hurt this team more than any other, IMO. 

 

[Reardon's Beard]

Can anyone enlighten me as to why Gagne is on this team and playing? Campbell is a valuable wingman for Paille, but I see no reason not to get one of the young guns running on the varsity team in lieu of Gagne. Maybe contract/control issues I'm overlooking?
 
Spot on above. I think the struggles now underscore how valuable Iginla was to this team last year, never mind losing the captain and top center. Without your main weapons on offense and defense it's safe to say the only reason this is a borderline playoff team, if it is at all, is the willpower of Bergeron and Rask.
 
EDIT: clarity.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I think that what is really hurting them is that they are now paying top dollar for a lot of their core guys.  Bergeron and Rask used to be two of the biggest bargains in the whole league, now they are hauling in what they deserve and the Bruins have less money for the rest of their roster.  
 
This Bruin core group may be past its peak because 1) it can no longer afford to retain all of its core guys and 2) their system isn't producing new Bergeron/Rask level core players (which is a longshot for any system, especially one that doesn't draft near the top).  Last year they managed to get Iginla by shifting most of his money to this year's cap, but that maneuver cost them a year of Boychuk.  They are also paying good coin to a couple of guys in Lucic and Marchand who aren't consistent producers.
 
Of course injuries to Krejci and Chara are a big part of the problem, but there are no guarantees that either player will be "right" this year.  And next year they need to pay (or lose) more key guys incuding Soderberg, Krug, Smith.  
 
I think the future of the Bergeron/Chara/Rask/Krejci Bruins is very much in doubt.  

 

[timlinin8th]

I think that what is really hurting them is that they are now paying top dollar for a lot of their core guys.  Bergeron and Rask used to be two of the biggest bargains in the whole league, now they are hauling in what they deserve and the Bruins have less money for the rest of their roster.

I *sort of* agree with what you are saying here, but in a different context... When the Bruins were getting a bargain on their top tier players, they were in a better position to weather mistakes in the rest of the roster construction by still having money to get other players. You need to ultimately pay top tier talent as such however, and you can't argue the contracts their top guys have.

Now, the overpays of Lucic (I like his game but not at his cap hit), Chris Kelly, Seidenberg if he can't get his game back on track, hurt much more.... They're midtier players whose contracts leave zero margin for error. If they aren't producing they're dead weight against the cap and no room to fill the hole their underperformance leaves.

The one Achilles' heel of Chiarelli's tenure has been his "NMC's for all" mantra. For better on for worse, the Bruins are stuck with those midtier guys.

 

[veritas]

I think that what is really hurting them is that they are now paying top dollar for a lot of their core guys.  Bergeron and Rask used to be two of the biggest bargains in the whole league, now they are hauling in what they deserve and the Bruins have less money for the rest of their roster.  
 
This Bruin core group may be past its peak because 1) it can no longer afford to retain all of its core guys and 2) their system isn't producing new Bergeron/Rask level core players (which is a longshot for any system, especially one that doesn't draft near the top).  Last year they managed to get Iginla by shifting most of his money to this year's cap, but that maneuver cost them a year of Boychuk.  They are also paying good coin to a couple of guys in Lucic and Marchand who aren't consistent producers.

 
I think it's really the opposite, I don't think they're getting enough production from their cost-controlled players. The year they won the cup, Bergeron had a $4.75m cap hit, it's not like they were paying him minimum salary. Same with Lucic and Horton who were both > $4m. They also were wasting $8m in salary cap space on Ryder and Kaberle. They were successful that year because they got a ton of value from guys making < $2.5m: Marchand ($800,000!), Recchi, Kelly, Wheeler, Peverley, Boychuck, Ference, McQuaid, and Tuukka were all valuable parts of that team.
 
Compared to this year, the only players < $2.5m who are outperforming their salaries are Soderberg, Dougie, and Krug. Smith and Griffith arguably as well. This lack of production from the bottom half of the roster has been magnified even further with the injuries to Chara and Krejci.

 

[cshea]

Lucic and Eriksson are making a combined $10.25 million and haven't produced offensively (0.48 PPG, combined) That's not good value. Lucic has had a revolving cast of AHL-level wingers and centers plus he's coming off the wrist injury so I can somewhat understand his dip. Loui's just frustrating me. He does everything right except for producing offensively. 16 goals in 102 total games for the Bruins.