The Outfield '15 version

[KillerBs]

True you wont know for sure whether Rusney is going to be a ML flop until he proves it at the big league level. But the point is, unlike everyone else, he hasn't proven he isn't a minor league flop yet. Some sustained period of success in the minors is typically a pre-req for being handed a starting CF job on a pennant contender. Granted Abreu worked out pretty good last year for the Chisox but is Rusney at that level? The whole discussion about rushing players would apply to Rusney too.
 
My other lingering concern, and it is only that, is that a OF complement of let's say Ramirez -- Craig -- Castillo -- Betts -- Victorino puts at least 4 of the guys in a situation where if they put up a couple 0-4s they think they might be headed to the bench. On top of it neither Castillo nor Betts will be getting FT ABs, which is what they should be getting somewhere at least.
 
Ideally players know, at least broadly, their role. I am inclined to think extreme day to day uncertainty re playing time, especially with younger players is problematic. If Castillo goes down to AAA to start the season, he knows what the deal is, he needs to hit AAA pitching to get to the bigs. We come out of the box with Ramirez, Betts and Victorino as the starters, with Nava and Craig understanding they are bench guys picking up ABs here and there. Everyone knows this is the deal for the first 40 games or so until the quarter pole when they check in and adjust accordingly.   

 

[Rasputin]

. You would have the organization lose Nava over a couple of weeks of good ST ABs from Craig? That doesn't seem too wise as Craig could easily revert to helplessness once the season starts.


If the other clubs will indeed honor the gentleman's agreement not to claim, that's a much better reason for the Sox not to be in any hurry to send Craig down.

 
No, I wouldn't. I would, however, do it if the scouting and medical folks were convinced he's back to his normal self.
 
Who's the guy who gets the call if we need Nava and don't have him? Brentz and Travis Shaw are on the 40 man so it would be one of them depending on what we needed Nava for, I think. Brentz won't get on base the way Nava does, but he's liable to hit for a bit more power and play better defense so I don't know that the overall downgrade is all that much. You lose the positional flexibility, which blows because I really don't want to see Travis Shaw yet. Of course, that only comes into play if Craig and Napoli are down at the same time.
 
Eh, I'm not going to just dump Nava because Craig has good numbers in camp, but if the scouting folks think he's back, I'm not going to sweat losing Nava that much. 

 

[Saints Rest]

. You would have the organization lose Nava over a couple of weeks of good ST ABs from Craig? That doesn't seem too wise as Craig could easily revert to helplessness once the season starts.


If the other clubs will indeed honor the gentleman's agreement not to claim, that's a much better reason for the Sox not to be in any hurry to send Craig down.

I think the Sizemore experience last season has tianted the waters far more deeply than is warranted.  Craig (and to a lesser extent Victorino) seems to be regularly painted with the Sizemore brush.  Sizemore has missed in their entirety all of two years, with two additional years tacked onto those with less than half a season each.  Craig had a crap season last year, for sure, but he was also battling thru the Lisfranc injury.  In 2013, his OPS was .830 (.876 in 2012 and .917 in 2011).  So this is a guy who had one lost season after 3 very good ones.  
 
I think that Craig is almost as likely to be the best hitter in the OF (other than Hanley) as anyone.  He is the one with the best MLB track record of success.  I'd be kind of amazed if his awful time in Boston last August/September is indicative of what we are likely to see from him going forward.

 

[Harry Hooper]

I think the Sizemore experience last season has tianted the waters far more deeply than is warranted.  Craig (and to a lesser extent Victorino) seems to be regularly painted with the Sizemore brush.  Sizemore has missed in their entirety all of two years, with two additional years tacked onto those with less than half a season each.  Craig had a crap season last year, for sure, but he was also battling thru the Lisfranc injury.  In 2013, his OPS was .830 (.876 in 2012 and .917 in 2011).  So this is a guy who had one lost season after 3 very good ones.  
 
I think that Craig is almost as likely to be the best hitter in the OF (other than Hanley) as anyone.  He is the one with the best MLB track record of success.  I'd be kind of amazed if his awful time in Boston last August/September is indicative of what we are likely to see from him going forward.

. If you launder Craig through AAA, though, you get more of a road test with him and you don't have to lose Nava right away.

 

[KillerBs]

I certainly don't think Sizemore has anything to with Craig or Victorino. Given the injury history, Sizemore struck me as a much longer shot to contribute than these 2.  
 
The issue with Craig is:
 
a.    You have no idea what you are going to get -- anything from worse than useless to an all-star is a real possibility.
 
b.    He is a RHB 1b/lf and we are set with starters at 1b and LF who are RHBs so it will be hard to justify giving Craig the FT ABs he will want/expect. i.e. that he needs to turn his career around. 
 
c.    In Nava we have a much cheaper LHB 1b/lf whose performance seems far more predictable, and who is a better fit to pick up some platoon ABs in RF too, while readily accepting a reserve role.    

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I certainly don't think Sizemore has anything to with Craig or Victorino. Given the injury history, Sizemore struck me as a much longer shot to contribute than these 2.  
 
The issue with Craig is:
 
a.    You have no idea what you are going to get -- anything from worse than useless to an all-star is a real possibility.
 
b.    He is a RHB 1b/lf and we are set with starters at 1b and LF who are RHBs so it will be hard to justify giving Craig the FT ABs he will want/expect. i.e. that he needs to turn his career around. 
 
c.    In Nava we have a much cheaper LHB 1b/lf whose performance seems far more predictable, and who is a better fit to pick up some platoon ABs in RF too, while readily accepting a reserve role.    

 
The flaw in basing this on money is that the only way the Sox can get out of paying him his full contract is if they trade him.  And the only way they'll be able to trade him without picking up part of the contract is if he's productive.  And if he's productive, he's a better player than Nava...enough that handedness doesn't matter.

 

[Reverend]

I think the Sizemore experience last season has tianted the waters far more deeply than is warranted.  Craig (and to a lesser extent Victorino) seems to be regularly painted with the Sizemore brush.  Sizemore has missed in their entirety all of two years, with two additional years tacked onto those with less than half a season each.  Craig had a crap season last year, for sure, but he was also battling thru the Lisfranc injury.  In 2013, his OPS was .830 (.876 in 2012 and .917 in 2011).  So this is a guy who had one lost season after 3 very good ones.  
 
I think that Craig is almost as likely to be the best hitter in the OF (other than Hanley) as anyone.  He is the one with the best MLB track record of success.  I'd be kind of amazed if his awful time in Boston last August/September is indicative of what we are likely to see from him going forward.

 
Sizemore was injury prone. Craig has what is literally an irreparable injury in his foot.
 
He literally cannot return to his previous form. It may be possible that he can take on a new form that is productive, but it would not be the same and it would have to be done with the sizable disadvantage of having the bones in one of his feet fused together in ways that don't allow many important athletic movements. Physically speaking, he is a different person than he used to be.
 
Edit: Corrective to misinformation about surgery below.

 

[In my lifetime]

 
Sizemore was injury prone. Craig has what is literally an irreparable injury in his foot.
 
He literally cannot return to his previous form. It may be possible that he can take on a new form that is productive, but it would not be the same and it would have to be done with the sizable disadvantage of having the bones in one of his feet fused together in ways that don't allow many important athletic movements. Physically speaking, he is a different person than he used to be.

 
I would disagree that "he literrally can't return to his previous form" due to the Lisfranc injury. Lisfranc injuries run the gamut from mild to career-ending (especially in sports like football and basketball where performance of basically every play depends on tremendous pressure of the athlete's feet and ankles). You mention a bone fusion procedure, but I couldn't find any reference to the fact the Craig had a fusion performed.  Craig, other than his WS performance was a shell of his former self since the injury, but with a full off-season and 18 months removed from the injury, a complete reversion to his former health and effectiveness is not impossible and a return to 90% of his previous production may not even be improbable.  I personally had a Lisfranc injury and it bothered me for about 18 months, and although I am not anywhere close to a professional athlete 2 years after the injury, I am able to run 10 miles daily without any pain or even feeling anything different in my foot. 
 
So while it is possible that he can never return to his previous form, I think it is also quite possible that he does.  The most likely outcome  (not necessarily because of the injury, but just as regression to mean since he was so good before the injury and so bad after it) is that he is somewhere between 2014 and 2013 pre-injury.  Of course, his value will be determined by how close he is to the top range of performance. If he returns anywhere close to peak form, he will have significant value on the trading market as will Victorino if he proves himself healthy.  But right now, both of those players have to show they are healthy for the RS to be able to move either player without eating a significant amount of their contract.  

 

[Reverend]

 
I would disagree that "he literrally can't return to his previous form" due to the Lisfranc injury. Lisfranc injuries run the gamut from mild to career-ending (especially in sports like football and basketball where performance of basically every play depends on tremendous pressure of the athlete's feet and ankles). You mention a bone fusion procedure, but I couldn't find any reference to the fact the Craig had a fusion performed.  Craig, other than his WS performance was a shell of his former self since the injury, but with a full off-season and 18 months removed from the injury, a complete reversion to his former health and effectiveness is not impossible and a return to 90% of his previous production may not even be improbable.  I personally had a Lisfranc injury and it bothered me for about 18 months, and although I am not anywhere close to a professional athlete 2 years after the injury, I am able to run 10 miles daily without any pain or even feeling anything different in my foot. 
 
So while it is possible that he can never return to his previous form, I think it is also quite possible that he does.  The most likely outcome  (not necessarily because of the injury, but just as regression to mean since he was so good before the injury and so bad after it) is that he is somewhere between 2014 and 2013 pre-injury.  Of course, his value will be determined by how close he is to the top range of performance. If he returns anywhere close to peak form, he will have significant value on the trading market as will Victorino if he proves himself healthy.  But right now, both of those players have to show they are healthy for the RS to be able to move either player without eating a significant amount of their contract.  

 
You're right, I misspoke in that he did not have the surgery, so the bones are not fused together--probably why he wants to try to recover without surgery.
 
I was mostly referencing this:
 

For what it's worth, I'm planning to talk about microfracture and Lisfranc injuries at the Saberseminar in two weeks.
 
Short version - some guys never really recover from Lisfranc injuries.  The surgical bailout is a midfoot fusion, which is a decent surgery for alleviating chronic pain but isn't really compatible with high-level athletics.
 
Wow, I just dropped a turd in the punchbowl, huh?  Guess I'm not getting $10 for this one...

 
So yeah, it's overstatement to say it's impossible. But I do think that part of the foot and the torque you put on it in hitting is a bad scene for Lisfranc. But I'm no doctor.

 

[soxhop411]

@Sean_McAdam: Red Sox look to deal Craig from crowded outfield. A look at some possible destinations. http://t.co/7gDzkGrDMJ http://t.co/BqChlB7Qp4

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- Even before you begin to factor in Allen Craig, there's overcrowding in the outfield for the Red Sox.

Hanley Ramirez is set in left, while Mookie Betts and Rusney Castillo battle for playing time in center. If sufficiently recovered from back surgery last August, Shane Victorino will get the majority of playing time in right.

For a role player off the bench, the Red Sox have Daniel Nava, who has played all three outfield spots (and first base) and provides some balance to the righty-leaning outfield.

So, where does that leave Craig? Seemingly without a spot, or, barring an injury to one of the other projected regulars, a place on the 25-man roster.

Craig is out of options and because of his service time, could refuse his assignment to the minors. And, with his salary, the Sox wouldn't want to be paying him to idle in Pawtucket.

A trade seems like the obvious option. When Grapefruit League games get underway next week, Craig will be one of the most scrutinized players in Florida. Teams know the Sox have made him available and need to move him.

Craig, of course, endured a nightmarish 2014 season. Still recovering from a foot injury the previous fall, he never got untracked in St. Louis, then looked truly lost when he came to the Sox at the deadline in the deal that sent John Lackey to St. Louis.

In 29 games with the Sox, he hit just .128, had only four extra-base hits in 94 at-bats and averaged about a strikeout every three plate appearances.

But when he's right, Craig was a consistently productive hitter, collecting 92 RBI in 2012 and 97 in 2013. What's more, though he's not a defensive stalwart, he does provide some versatility, able to play first base, left field and right field. He also played third base in the minors and could DH for an American League team.

There's also the matter of his contract. Craig is due $5.5 million this year, $9 million in 2016 and $11 million in 2017 with a team option for $13 million in 2018 and a buyout of $1 million. Craig is guaranteed no less than $26.5 million over the next three years, and while that's relatively modest in the scheme of things, it would represent a big investment for some small-market teams. Presumably, the Sox would have to be willing to take back some of the remaining money to help facilitate a trade.

So, where could the Sox send Craig? Some options:

 

[leftfieldlegacy]

There are other surgical options other than fusion for a Lisfranc injury. As DRS mentioned, the fusion surgery is the "bailout" procedure when the injury is so severe that all you want to do is stabilize the mid foot, decrease pain and allow normal everyday activities but with little hope or expectation that the athlete will be able to return to professional sport. Not only did Craig not have a fusion, he didn't have any surgery at all. So it is likely that his sprain was not severe enough to cause any foot instability which would make me optimistic that he can return to a being a very good hitter. 
 
In this article, http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/41595/kelly-on-allen-craig-hes-going-to-dominate Craig mentions that his foot felt good last year but he felt weak.

“My foot injury definitely impacted my preparation for last year,” Craig said. “My foot felt good obviously for the majority of the season. I think it just impacted some leg strength and this and that. You can talk about it all day but the bottom line is I’ve had time this offseason to feel good and get stronger and actually build toward something for this season.” 

 
I can understand the Red Sox wanting to trade him, but they need to get him get a decent amount of at bats this spring to see if he has healed as well as he says he has. If he can still hit at a high level, then at least they can sell high and take back a lot less salary. 

 

[Harry Hooper]

McAdam: Craig is out of options and because of his service time, could refuse his assignment to the minors. And, with his salary, the Sox wouldn't want to be paying him to idle in Pawtucket.  
 

 
This is the crux of the whole article. If Sean is wrong about that, then you largely can ignore the rest.
 
 
Paying Craig to play a couple of months in Pawtucket is not a huge deal if he's in line to be the starting 1B when Napoli leaves as a FA at the end of this season.

 

[judyb]

@Sean_McAdam: Red Sox look to deal Craig from crowded outfield. A look at some possible destinations. http://t.co/7gDzkGrDMJ http://t.co/BqChlB7Qp4

Can anyone else see how Craig could be out of options when he was added to the Cards 40 man roster after the '09 season, made his major league debut in '10, and hasn't been optioned since? Or how he'd have the right to refuse a minor league assignment with 4 years of service time when it takes 5?

 

[pjr]

Can anyone else see how Craig could be out of options when he was added to the Cards 40 man roster after the '09 season, made his major league debut in '10, and hasn't been optioned since? Or how he'd have the right to refuse a minor league assignment with 4 years of service time when it takes 5?

According to Sox Prospects Craig has 2 options left.
http://www.soxprospects.com/40man.htm

 

[MikeM]

Also, the Red Sox just paid $63 million to a player who is by consensus of the scouting community two years away from the major leagues. Despite the obvious difference in age, experience, and structure of the contract, I don't think it is a foregone conclusion that Rusnay Castillo's three options are therefore unusable just because he got a little bit more than Moncada.

 
It's not just an obvious difference there though...it's essentially an apples to spaghetti comparison imo. Castillo turns 28 this season. You don't go out and make that commitment on a year one 28 year old if Ben/scouting were not completely buying in on him already being an MLB ready piece they planned to both need/use right out the gate. 
 
Castillo will see as much rope to start the season as Crawford did back in 2011, with it needing to get really really bad before he'd be considered for a demotion. Leaving the JB fantasy a nice one to dream on, but a rather unrealistic scenario regardless how Ben tries to spin it while reading from the script. Barring injury there will be no starting job for JB to win this spring. If he ends up pushing the issue on anything, it'll be a potential move to first for Hanley latter in the season. 
 
Put me down now as not being the least bit shocked when both Craig and Victorino are suiting up elsewhere by the time opening day rolls around too. 

 

[Clears Cleaver]

Craig maybe, but you need four "regular OFs" when one is Hanley and two are still unproven. Victorino is a good player when healthy. Is he? I don't know, but if he isn't then he won't be traded anyways. Plus, Betts is the backup to Pedroia. I can't see them trading both Craig and Vic. I do expect Craig to lead the Sox in spring training ABs, however.

 

[Devizier]

If you're not overly concerned with players moving around the diamond (and I'm not), playing time is not really a difficult issue to resolve.
 
If you go by the Steamer projections at the positions we're discussing, there's plenty of time for the backups to see the field.
 
1B Napoli 130 games
2B Pedroia 146 games
LF Ramirez 130 games
CF Castillo 122 games
RF Victorino 89 games
DH Ortiz 138 games
 
Betts backing up 2B/RF/CF would be in the mix for ~130 games.
Craig backing up 1B/DH/LF would be in the mix for ~90 games.
 
Obviously, those two players wouldn't back up every game not played by the starters, but they could see a lot of time. And many of those games played by the projected starters will involve shifting positions (Victorino/Castillo covering other outfield positions occasionally, Ramirez maybe covering SS/3B?). Guys like Holt, Nava, and Bradley are the ones getting the squeeze, but those are the perfect assets to have in a contingency plan. I don't want the Red Sox to deal out their depth unless someone forces a trade.
 

 

[Rasputin]

Craig maybe, but you need four "regular OFs" when one is Hanley and two are still unproven. Victorino is a good player when healthy. Is he? I don't know, but if he isn't then he won't be traded anyways. Plus, Betts is the backup to Pedroia. I can't see them trading both Craig and Vic. I do expect Craig to lead the Sox in spring training ABs, however.

I'm pretty sure Holt is the backup to Pedroia.

 

[Reverend]

I'm pretty sure Holt is the backup to Pedroia.

 
Why? Betts is the best second baseman on the team.

 

[Rasputin]

 
Why? Betts is the best second baseman on the team.

 
Because very soon, possibly even on opening day, Betts is going to be a starting outfielder. I and presumably the Red Sox want him to spend all his time making sure that transition goes well. I don't want him even thinking about second base. If he plays there, it's in an emergency situation as far as I am concerned.

 

[Reverend]

Because very soon, possibly even on opening day, Betts is going to be a starting outfielder. I and presumably the Red Sox want him to spend all his time making sure that transition goes well. I don't want him even thinking about second base. If he plays there, it's in an emergency situation as far as I am concerned.

 
If Pedroia isn't playing, it's probably an emergency situation.

 

[Rasputin]

 
If Pedroia isn't playing, it's probably an emergency situation.

 
I kinda figure "emergency situation" requires at least two people to be out. If Pedroia and Bogaerts both can't play, sure, Betts is your second baseman.

 

[Reverend]

It was a joke.
 
See? Because Pedroia doesn't like to come out of games, so...

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

It seems pretty premature to start divvying up playing time as there's a very good chance an OF will be dealt before ST is done. The question is who and not if.

That decision will probably be greatly affected by health. But given good health and return to form for all of Craig, Vic and Nava ..

Craig : team friendly contract (but not cheap) , excellent hitter , acceptable defense at LF and 1B. Can play RF

Victorino : expensive, decent hitter, excellent Defense in RF and can backup CF

Nava : cheap for this year .. About to get expensive, good LH hitter , needs to be platooned , acceptable defense in LF, can play RF and 1B

As mentioned, this assumes good health for all three. If the Sox make their decision based on the needs of the team this year then I think Craig is the the trade candidate. We are talking backup players (I think the Farrell comments about Vic being the starter is just Manager Speak giving respect to the Veteran over the Rookie) and Vic (defense) and Nava (LH bat) bring a little more to the table. And Victorino is the only CF backup.( although either Betts or Castillo can backup CF with Craig/Nava going to RF)

If it's a long term discussion, in my mind Craig has the most value .. He's on a reasonably contract for multiple years. Both Napoli's and Victorino's contracts are up. In this scenario I think Nava is the trade candidate. His greatest attribute is his contract and that's about to enter an expensive phase.

On the other hand, a healthy Craig brings more back than Nava.

If I'm the GM I trade Nava and let Craig be the possible in house replacement for Napoli.

The worst scenario is anything that keeps Betts in Pawtucket.

 

[Reverend]

It seems pretty premature to start divvying up playing time as there's a very good chance an OF will be dealt before ST is done. The question is who and not if.

That decision will probably be greatly affected by health. But given good health and return to form for all of Craig, Vic and Nava ..

 

 

[MikeM]

Craig maybe, but you need four "regular OFs" when one is Hanley and two are still unproven. Victorino is a good player when healthy. Is he? I don't know, but if he isn't then he won't be traded anyways. Plus, Betts is the backup to Pedroia. I can't see them trading both Craig and Vic. I do expect Craig to lead the Sox in spring training ABs, however.

 
Maybe i'm simply buying too much into the Betts hype train, but our lineup just seems a lot more sexy to me with him in it. This is a scenario where you fully commit and give the kid every chance to run with it...not complicate things and/or take a step back in the name of maximizing potential assets in the event of a maybe scenario coming to pass.
 
The overall depth of having Craig/Victorino may look good in itself, but not so much when you start viewing it from an overall perspective that sees a team currently $15m+ or so over the LT budgeting almost $20m to non-starters/bench players. An excess # which could could be significantly reduced while still leaving you fairly covered in the OF with JB/Nava, and enough pieces on the farm to go out and make a solid deal in the event we decided to go in a completely different direction then giving a first in line JB that hard/second look. 
 
Like i've stated in the past on Craig, he ultimately only made sense if you had a starting gig lined up for him to play. In hindsight the move looks fairly terrible, and i don't see Ben going out of his way to stubbornly pound the square peg into a round hole just for the sake of trying to save face on it. The risks of carrying around that access financial baggage in full, going into next winter where i assume we'll be trying to get back under the LT cap, simply isn't worth the lottery ticket "one year from now" upside on an aging player. Especially for those out there that view Hanley shifting over to 1st as perfectly viable (and preferable) option in the event we find ourselves that hard pressed to replace Napoli latter.  

 

[Rasputin]

 
Maybe i'm simply buying too much into the Betts hype train, but our lineup just seems a lot more sexy to me with him in it. This is a scenario where you fully commit and give the kid every chance to run with it...not complicate things and/or take a step back in the name of maximizing potential assets in the event of a maybe scenario coming to pass.
 
The overall depth of having Craig/Victorino may look good in itself, but not so much when you start viewing it from an overall perspective that sees a team currently $15m+ or so over the LT budgeting almost $20m to non-starters/bench players. An excess # which could could be significantly reduced while still leaving you fairly covered in the OF with JB/Nava, and enough pieces on the farm to go out and make a solid deal in the event we decided to go in a completely different direction then giving a first in line JB that hard/second look. 
 
Like i've stated in the past on Craig, he ultimately only made sense if you had a starting gig lined up for him to play. In hindsight the move looks fairly terrible, and i don't see Ben going out of his way to stubbornly pound the square peg into a round hole just for the sake of trying to save face on it. The risks of carrying around that access financial baggage in full, going into next winter where i assume we'll be trying to get back under the LT cap, simply isn't worth the lottery ticket "one year from now" upside on an aging player. Especially for those out there that view Hanley shifting over to 1st as perfectly viable (and preferable) option in the event we find ourselves that hard pressed to replace Napoli latter.  

 
But we do have a starting gig lined up for him to play. First base when Napoli moves on next year, or DH if Papi retires. And I don't see how "one year from now" is a lottery ticket. The lottery ticket is whether Craig can ever regain something resembling his previous form. If he can, then waiting until next year to start him is more like forgetting your umbrella on a day it doesn't rain.
 
Also, you can't just pencil Ramirez in at first because it's fairly likely that by 2017 we have to replace both Napoli and Ortiz. That would take both Ramirez and Craig. Sure, maybe Moncada fits in somewhere, but it's not like we can count on that yet.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Taking Craig might have made sense solely from the point that it was the price required to get Joe Kelly.  I know this territory has been tread ad naseum, but Kelly is getting some rave reviews from his teammates today.  At the very least, he's come into camp raring to go, which is nothing but a positive.

 

[Fireball Fred]

"I think the Sizemore experience last season has tianted the waters ...." - Saints Rest, yesterday, re Craig.
I like that "tianted." When Luis Tiant arrived in Boston in 1971, after an injury, he was awful (1-7 doesn't capture it). But then he was back - led the AL in ERA in '72, and won 81 games in the next four years. We can hope that (a) Craig can come back, and (b) that the comeback is this year.

 

[MikeM]

Taking Craig might have made sense solely from the point that it was the price required to get Joe Kelly.  I know this territory has been tread ad naseum, but Kelly is getting some rave reviews from his teammates today.  At the very least, he's come into camp raring to go, which is nothing but a positive.

 
In all fairness you are right that i should have phrased it "in hindsight the fit looks fairly terrible", since the who was pushing for what there was never really confirmed in any detail anywhere. At least to my knowledge.
 

 
But we do have a starting gig lined up for him to play. First base when Napoli moves on next year, or DH if Papi retires. And I don't see how "one year from now" is a lottery ticket. The lottery ticket is whether Craig can ever regain something resembling his previous form. If he can, then waiting until next year to start him is more like forgetting your umbrella on a day it doesn't rain.

 
Why is Craig regaining his 1300 PA stoke in what's projecting to be part time duty, enough so that he's confidently anointed next year's starter, seemingly the foregone conclusion there for you? Instead of say...Napoli having a solid enough year and the Sox simply retaining him on another short term deal. The latter looks like the much higher probability play to me.
 
With all due respect man, there just seems to be a lot of outside the accepted norm reaching there for the sole sake of making sense out of one isolated decision. Again, i do not see Ben over thinking this to the extent it's been here (imo). I fully expect him to cut our potential loses the best we can on Craig this spring, writing it off as an anomaly that essentially amounted to pre-offseason insurance we paid for but never cashed in on when something more appealing came along.

 

[The Boomer]

2013 was a fluke with their veteran signings never expected to lead to the gratifying world championship.  Napoli, Victorino and the other veterans (Gomes is already gone) were seen as placeholders who could put them back in contention.  Lester was coming off a bad season.  They more than did their job.  It still looks like the Sox are sticking to their plan to transition to their younger homegrown studs.
 
I see both Victorino and Napoli as cost cutting exiles either if dealt in season or if their contracts are allowed to expire if they are retained this full season.  First base and DH depth will come from Craig (this assumes that they see enough comeback potential for him to justify his potential bargain contract), Hanley, Panda and maybe even Cecchini (who is a post hype forgotten man).  JBJ is another post hype player who could force the Sox to move their older guys out the door.  With Moncado, Margot and Devers also on the horizon, Hanley is likely to end up as their elder statesman when Papi inevitably retires at the end of next season.  Whether 500 HR are achievable in 2015 or 2016, next season looks destined to be Ortiz's swan song.

 

[judyb]

Maybe i'm simply buying too much into the Betts hype train, but our lineup just seems a lot more sexy to me with him in it. This is a scenario where you fully commit and give the kid every chance to run with it...not complicate things and/or take a step back in the name of maximizing potential assets in the event of a maybe scenario coming to pass.
 
The overall depth of having Craig/Victorino may look good in itself, but not so much when you start viewing it from an overall perspective that sees a team currently $15m+ or so over the LT budgeting almost $20m to non-starters/bench players. An excess # which could could be significantly reduced while still leaving you fairly covered in the OF with JB/Nava, and enough pieces on the farm to go out and make a solid deal in the event we decided to go in a completely different direction then giving a first in line JB that hard/second look. 
 
Like i've stated in the past on Craig, he ultimately only made sense if you had a starting gig lined up for him to play. In hindsight the move looks fairly terrible, and i don't see Ben going out of his way to stubbornly pound the square peg into a round hole just for the sake of trying to save face on it. The risks of carrying around that access financial baggage in full, going into next winter where i assume we'll be trying to get back under the LT cap, simply isn't worth the lottery ticket "one year from now" upside on an aging player. Especially for those out there that view Hanley shifting over to 1st as perfectly viable (and preferable) option in the event we find ourselves that hard pressed to replace Napoli latter.

I'm missing something again, replacing Napoli's $16 million against the luxury tax with Craig's $6.2 million seems like it could be a way to help them get under the limit in 2016. Plus, while Craig isn't exactly young at 30, he is younger than both Napoli and Hanley.

 

[Al Zarilla]

I saw a bit on NESN this morning that Nava is experimenting with hitting left handed against left handed pitchers. Daniel getting a wee bit desperate with the crowd in the outfield? Worked for Vic in 2013 (right on right).

 

[Rasputin]

I saw a bit on NESN this morning that Nava is experimenting with hitting left handed against left handed pitchers. Daniel getting a wee bit desperate with the crowd in the outfield? Worked for Vic in 2013 (right on right).

 
I don't think it really has anything to do with being desperate. It's just a matter of there never being a position where there isn't someone else you want hitting against a lefty than Nava, so he's taking a chance to improve in that area. I doubt it will work. but it literally cannot hurt.

 

[Rasputin]

 
Why is Craig regaining his 1300 PA stoke in what's projecting to be part time duty, enough so that he's confidently anointed next year's starter, seemingly the foregone conclusion there for you? Instead of say...Napoli having a solid enough year and the Sox simply retaining him on another short term deal. The latter looks like the much higher probability play to me.
 
With all due respect man, there just seems to be a lot of outside the accepted norm reaching there for the sole sake of making sense out of one isolated decision. Again, i do not see Ben over thinking this to the extent it's been here (imo). I fully expect him to cut our potential loses the best we can on Craig this spring, writing it off as an anomaly that essentially amounted to pre-offseason insurance we paid for but never cashed in on when something more appealing came along.

 
It isn't. I get tired of stating the completely fucking obvious all the time, so I often skip it. If Craig sucks, there's no decision to make, you see if anyone will take any of the contract and you eat what you have to. Every single person in the universe understands this.
 
I think it's utterly absurd to think that Cherington didn't have the idea of Craig replacing Napoli or Papi in mind when he made the trade. I don't think it was the top thing on his mind, but people can have multiple reasons for doing things, and if Craig does return to some semblance of what he was, then next winter gets a lot easier.

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

I saw a bit on NESN this morning that Nava is experimenting with hitting left handed against left handed pitchers. Daniel getting a wee bit desperate with the crowd in the outfield? Worked for Vic in 2013 (right on right).

This has been out there for a while, maybe since the casino event.
WEEI has more on it. Sounds like the request that he try it may have come from the Sox after his sub-.400 OPS vs lefties (as a right-handed hitter) last season.

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

WEEI link:
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2015/02/28/daniel-nava-still-flirting-with-idea-of-not-switch-hitting/

 

[BoredViewer]

Panda is right there with Nava (.563 OPS in 2014 as RHB) - probably topic for another thread, though.
 
I think it's a good move for Nava and certainly can't hurt.  I would imagine natural LHB would have less success than natural RHB - but we'll see. ST is a good place to try it out.  

 

[Darnell's Son]

Panda is right there with Nava (.563 OPS in 2014 as RHB) - probably topic for another thread, though.
 
I think it's a good move for Nava and certainly can't hurt.  I would imagine natural LHB would have less success than natural RHB - but we'll see. ST is a good place to try it out.  

That's kind of misleading. He only had 191 AB against lefties last year. His career OPS vs lefties is .708. Not good, but more respectable.

 

[YTF]

Just thinking out loud, but most here seem to agree that there isn't room for all of these guys and that probably includes roster spots in AAA as well. I'm curious if the Braves may feel a need in the outfield now that Melvin Upton Jr. is out for a few months. Actually they should feel a need with him in the lineup. I'm not familiar with many of the OF names on their 40 man, but perhaps there is a potential deal that could fill a need for both teams.  

 

[Rasputin]

Just thinking out loud, but most here seem to agree that there isn't room for all of these guys and that probably includes roster spots in AAA as well. I'm curious if the Braves may feel a need in the outfield now that Melvin Upton Jr. is out for a few months. Actually they should feel a need with him in the lineup. I'm not familiar with many of the OF names on their 40 man, but perhaps there is a potential deal that could fill a need for both teams.  

 
I'm sure the Red Sox would be willing to listen on Nava and Craig, but they don't have all that much incentive to trade someone now. The likelihood that Ramirez, Castillo, Betts, Victorino, Craig, and Nava are all healthy come opening day are relatively slim.
 
And even a month of spring training is going to give them a better idea what to expect from Craig.

 

[MikeM]

I'm missing something again, replacing Napoli's $16 million against the luxury tax with Craig's $6.2 million seems like it could be a way to help them get under the limit in 2016. Plus, while Craig isn't exactly young at 30, he is younger than both Napoli and Hanley.

 
It's not a issue of missing something as much as getting too far ahead of yourself. Which again, might as well be a requirement here to make any real sense of this one imo.   
 
As it stands your scenario appears to be the long shot bet on the table. Barring a trade, there is currently a much better probability chance in play there that we end up paying the cap hit on both. 

 

[jasvlm]

In the interest of full disclosure, I am a huge Betts backer.  I think he'll be a very valuable asset as a hitter who is capable of playing a passable CF, a very good corner OF slot, or even 2b if the need were to arise.  That said, I think it is reasonable to at least explore an option that seems to make sense: dealing him to a team looking for a 2b.  
 
There was a lot of buzz in December and January about trading him to the Nats for Strasburg, but I was wholeheartedly against such a move because Strasburg is a 2 year rental, injury history aside.  6 years of Betts is going to be worth more than 2 years of Strasburg, no matter how well he pitches.  Now, after considering the needs that seem apparent around baseball, I think I've found a match on a deal that would benefit both sides, and could well be the rare win-win trade, where both teams get what they want and need-while both intend to compete on the same timetable (as opposed to a rebuilder trading with a contender).  
Betts to Toronto straight up for Marcus Stroman.  
 
The Jays plug a long standing hole at 2b with the talented, cost controlled Betts.  They lose Stroman, but get to allow someone like Sanchez to step into the role vacated by Stroman, but they still field a very strong team in 2015.  The Red Sox clear up a big jam in the OF, and roll with Hanley, Castillo and Victorino as starting OFers, with Nava and Craig around to be 4th OFers and backups at 1b.  Stroman becomes the young ace of the staff, and he's cost controlled just about the same amount of time as Betts, so the money is roughly equal in the long term.  Kelly likely slides to the pen to be the long man, but he's around after 2015, when guys like Porcello, Masterson and Buchholz could be done.  I realize the Sox have a gaggle of talented young arms at Pawtucket, and I'd love to see them emerge to become options for 2015 and beyond, but this seemed the best possible match for lots of reasons.  
 
In all honesty, I'd rather have Betts, and I don't hope for him to be traded anywhere.  But I think a deal like this, with Stroman coming back, is the best fit I found if the Red Sox feel forced to make a trade.  Maybe they don't, and this is all just wasted bytes, but its cold here, and I've chewed on this long enough.

 

[Plympton91]

 
But we do have a starting gig lined up for him to play. First base when Napoli moves on next year, or DH if Papi retires. And I don't see how "one year from now" is a lottery ticket. The lottery ticket is whether Craig can ever regain something resembling his previous form. If he can, then waiting until next year to start him is more like forgetting your umbrella on a day it doesn't rain.
 
Also, you can't just pencil Ramirez in at first because it's fairly likely that by 2017 we have to replace both Napoli and Ortiz. That would take both Ramirez and Craig. Sure, maybe Moncada fits in somewhere, but it's not like we can count on that yet.

Or Brentz, or Bradley, or Marerro with Bogaerts moving elsewhere, or Margot, or another free agent signing, or your dream of having Swihart and Vazquez stay on the same team by having Swihart playing a different position or DHing. There are a million moving parts.

Plus, even before the Lisfranc injury, Craig's OPS had been trending downward fairly steeply, something like 910, 870, 830 -- the next number in that sequence is 800 or below. Not terrible, but not irreplaceable either.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Plus, even before the Lisfranc injury, Craig's OPS had been trending downward fairly steeply, something like 910, 870, 830 -- the next number in that sequence is 800 or below. Not terrible, but not irreplaceable either.

Are you accounting for the drop in offense overall over the same span?

 

[Sprowl]

In all honesty, I'd rather have Betts, and I don't hope for him to be traded anywhere.  But I think a deal like this, with Stroman coming back, is the best fit I found if the Red Sox feel forced to make a trade.  Maybe they don't, and this is all just wasted bytes, but its cold here, and I've chewed on this long enough.

 
Stroman is an impressive young pitcher, with a potent slider, but he's 5'9" 185. Can he stick as a starter?
 
Betts is an excellent bet to stick at leadoff hitter.

 

[judyb]

It's not a issue of missing something as much as getting too far ahead of yourself. Which again, might as well be a requirement here to make any real sense of this one imo.   
 
As it stands your scenario appears to be the long shot bet on the table. Barring a trade, there is currently a much better probability chance in play there that we end up paying the cap hit on both.

I guess I'm basically assuming that if they really intend to get under the tax limit in '16, that having committed so much AAV to Hanley and Sandoval, paying another position player as much as Napoli's making now, whether it's Napoli himself or not, is probably not happening unless Ortiz retires or they somehow build a much cheaper pitching staff than seems likely.

 

[mwonow]

I guess I'm basically assuming that if they really intend to get under the tax limit in '16, that having committed so much AAV to Hanley and Sandoval, paying another position player as much as Napoli's making now, whether it's Napoli himself or not, is probably not happening unless Ortiz retires or they somehow build a much cheaper pitching staff than seems likely.

 
Not picking on you specifically, but there seems to be a lot of chatter here about how an Ortiz retirement would help resolve some of the current roster issues. IMO, Ortiz retiring creates a far bigger problem than anything it might resolve...

 

[Montana Fan]

I think we'd all agree that LF is set. 
 
CF/RF is a 3 man battle between Vic, Betts and Rusney. No matter how that shakes out we should be in much better position than last year.  With Vic's recent health problems and 1 year contract I am shocked to see people suggest that we trade Betts.  If we trade Betts, it's very possible the Sox could need to trade FOR an OF'er later this season.  There is plenty of room in this organization for the 3 of them and if anyone is being traded it's the short timer.
 
Backup 1b/corner OF is between Craig and Nava.  I give the edge to Nava because Craig has shown me nothing.  If he continues down the path of suck then it's off to AAA for him.
 
Regardless, Hanley, Rusney, Betts and a health Vic present quite an upgrade to the OF fodder that we sent out there last year. 

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Plus, even before the Lisfranc injury, Craig's OPS had been trending downward fairly steeply, something like 910, 870, 830 -- the next number in that sequence is 800 or below. Not terrible, but not irreplaceable either.

 
OPS+ in those same three seasons...151, 137, 129.  If he can get himself to a 110-115 OPS+, let alone 120 or higher, this season and/or next then it's a steal for the Sox.
 
Daniel Nava and his .706 OPS last year was good for a 100 OPS+...essentially league average.  The bar isn't incredibly high for Craig on this front.