nattysez said:
Yes, fixing a mistake is better than refusing to do so. But I'm concerned about the process here -- how was this bad decision made in the first place? And what intervening event occurred that made Farrell abandon "Gomes is my every day LF?" I hope he's not changing his mind based on the two or three games that have taken place since he made that pronouncement, otherwise his decision-making process is even worse than I thought.
nattysez said:
Yes, fixing a mistake is better than refusing to do so. But I'm concerned about the process here -- how was this bad decision made in the first place? And what intervening event occurred that made Farrell abandon "Gomes is my every day LF?" I hope he's not changing his mind based on the two or three games that have taken place since he made that pronouncement, otherwise his decision-making process is even worse than I thought.
Has anyone tried to analyze what's wrong with Nava? Usually when a player tanks this badly there's some speculation as to why.
He said it the day they optioned Nava back to AAA before they knew Carp had broken his foot, and, if I remember right, it was qualified with something like "for the time being".Yes, fixing a mistake is better than refusing to do so. But I'm concerned about the process here -- how was this bad decision made in the first place? And what intervening event occurred that made Farrell abandon "Gomes is my every day LF?" I hope he's not changing his mind based on the two or three games that have taken place since he made that pronouncement, otherwise his decision-making process is even worse than I thought.
Rovin Romine said:Has anyone tried to analyze what's wrong with Nava? JBJ and Sizemore are to some extent expected, but it's like Nava just fell off a cliff. Usually when a player tanks this badly there's some speculation as to why. I don't think I've seen any yet so far.
Maybe, but I don't see how say, Corey Dickerson for Brandon Workman is a pipe dream.Papelbon's Poutine said:
This is a pipe dream. There is no way you are getting either of these guys for a single AAA arm.
And? I'd say it's pretty obvious why people think he'll be a better OF than a 3B, since reaction time is the big hang up for him at 3B. As for 1B, it might not be the most athletically demanding position in the world, but it's got some unique skill set and awareness demands that no other position requires.joe dokes said:I get that Holt might be the best hitter of a bad bunch.....but he's not very good at 3B, looks pretty uncomfortable at 1B, and now people want to pencil him in for a semi-regular (i.e., non-emergency) OF gig?
Shane . . . . . . come back . . . . . .
Drek717 said:And? I'd say it's pretty obvious why people think he'll be a better OF than a 3B, since reaction time is the big hang up for him at 3B. As for 1B, it might not be the most athletically demanding position in the world, but it's got some unique skill set and awareness demands that no other position requires.
I think there is a very good chance he's a solid LF immediately and a passable RF though probably with a weaker arm than would be ideal, but someone you could live with especially when outside of Fenway.
ivanvamp said:To me, the answer is simple: If you're not going to go full beast mode and push your chips into the middle of the table to get Stanton (which almost certainly won't happen), then you strict-platoon Nava and Gomes in LF, hope Victorino is healthy in RF, and let JBJ stay in CF and live with it.
JBJ can catch, but there's really no evidence that he can hit in MLB.
I'm happy enough to go with "thus far in MLB JBJ has shown no evidence of his hitting ability". Heck, I'd be happier - much - to have it cease to be a subject of debate!smastroyin said:
Can we stop with this? I don't know if it's not using language correctly and you mean to say "thus far in MLB JBJ has shown no evidence of his hitting ability" or if you really mean that his minor league career is meaningless in predicting his future. I suspect the latter though, and it's just not true. If you have a reason to think that his minor league track record should be ignored, state that, not these types of truisms.
"Recognizing that he's still searching for his consistent stroke,'' said Farrell, "we've got to find ways to get him on the field and get him some opportunities against some righthanded pitching. We've got to try to get the best matchups possible. I know we went with Gomes for a number of starts against righthanded pitching.''
smastroyin said:
Can we stop with this? I don't know if it's not using language correctly and you mean to say "thus far in MLB JBJ has shown no evidence of his hitting ability" or if you really mean that his minor league career is meaningless in predicting his future. I suspect the latter though, and it's just not true. If you have a reason to think that his minor league track record should be ignored, state that, not these types of truisms.
I'm against any sort of reactionary moves by the Sox right now. The simple reason being I don't think any one arm or bat is going to turn this year around. I would rather just suck it up and stick with the plan.Drek717 said:Maybe, but I don't see how say, Corey Dickerson for Brandon Workman is a pipe dream.
Both are 25, Workman is about two months older. Both have about 1/10th of a year of service time. Workman has been a productive pitcher in limited ML samples, Dickerson has been a productive hitter in limited ML samples.
Right now the Rockies manager isn't playing Dickerson regularly and he's in all reality blocked from his natural position by Cargo with Colorado. Baseball America has never ranked Dickerson higher than the 13th best prospect in the Rockies farm system. His big output in 2013 at AAA is skewed by an absolutely massive home/road split from playing in Colorado Springs and some serious luck in hitting 14 triples.
Workman meanwhile went into 2013 as the #8 prospect in the Red Sox farm system by Baseball America, at a time when the Red Sox farm was considered well superior to the Rockies. Workman since then has been a productive ML pitcher who happens to be stuck in a log jam at the position.
To me this looks like a perfect 1:1 swap. The Rockies need pitching, the Red Sox need an outfielder. Boston would be taking a risk that Dickerson will be league average the second he leaves Colorado. I'd personally say that Colorado would be getting the real deal here.
As for Gordon, I think that would be more like Ranaudo/De La Rosa/Webster/Barnes. One of the higher upside guys. If KC thinks one of them has #1/#2 potential it would make sense for them. Maybe throw in Hassan to give them an OF body with some potential to break through as an OBP guy if they want something extra, or a low minors lottery ticket (Perkins?). I don't think Gordon will happen because KC was competitive last year and Gordon is a pretty good deal at $12.5M next year with a matching 2016 team option.
Plympton91 said:
Does OPS+ account for 16 steals in 18 attempts?
Rudy Pemberton said:Why do we always assume that GM is smart, manager dumb?
If Farrell is so smart, why does he cause so much cognitive dissonance with his infernal bunting?Reverend said:Cherington is not just smart but very smart. Farrell is not just smart but very smart.
1918stabbedbyfoulke said:If Farrell is so smart, why does he cause so much cognitive dissonance with his infernal bunting?
Rudy Pemberton said:Why do we always assume that GM is smart, manager dumb?
Plympton91 said:
How good is that minor league track record though? In AA and AAA, both at perfectly age-appropriate years (don't give me "average age of AAA player BS; the appropriate metric is "average age at which major league players with more than 2000 career at bats made it through AAA"), he hit .270 with a good walk rate bringing his OBP up into the upper 300s, and good power for a CFer. Well, transitioning that .270 to the majors, it seems reasonable to expect it to drop to .240, and then for walk rate to decline when facing better pitchers, so combined with the drop in batting average, and OBP of .300 to .310 isn't crazy. So, it seems to me that JBJ's minor league career could easily have suggested a .240 / .305 / .380 line, and if the Red Sox were counting on better than that, they were being overly optimistic. At the beginning of 2013, I projected significantly better, but that was before he had a rather pedestrian batting average and contact rate at Pawtucket last year.
Well, how many managers can you name with Ivy league educations?Rudy Pemberton said:Why do we always assume that GM is smart, manager dumb?
nattysez said:At the risk of sounding overly cavalier, what's the worst thing that happens if you dump Sizemore, move Betts to the 40-man, call him up, and stick him in RF until Shane Vic comes back? He can't be worse than who the Sox have had out there, and he's been hot. In a worst-case scenario, he struggles mightily and you send him back down having given him a taste of MLB and you're stuck having to re-sign Sizemore (requiring another 40-man move) or using Carp/Hassan in RF until you can trade for someone or Shane Vic gets healthy. In a best-case scenario, he stays hot and gives you a super-sub who can play 2B, SS in a pinch and in the OF all year.
People are talking about a July call-up -- are you going to ruin the kid by calling him up a month earlier?
nvalvo said:
The history you enumerate in questioning the quality of his minor league track record specifically excludes his utter torching of the South Atlantic (.933 OPS) and Carolina (1.006 OPS) leagues in the preceding 18 months. Why?
You're also right that his minor league track record suggests a .700ish OPS, give or take 20 or 30 points. That would put him in Austin Jackson, Denard Span, Desmond Jennings territory, and with his glove, that's a good player. (CF stats)
His excellent glove gives him a high floor, essentially replacement level (which is good, because it's what he's shown us so far). The elite on base skills and decent power he's shown in the minors suggests his ceiling in his prime could be quite high — a plus defensive CF with an .780-.800 OPS — i.e. an Angel Pagan-type player.
That is good enough to be a consensus top-50 prospect.
The one thing we can be absolutely certain of is that Betts will not be called up as a "white flag move".Red(s)HawksFan said:
I think we have to be careful about viewing Betts as some kind of savior. If they call him up before late August and it isn't a matter of more injury attrition, I think it's a white flag move rather than an attempt to salvage the 2014 season. It's calling him (and perhaps more young guys) up and throwing him (them) into the fire knowing it doesn't matter if he (they) flails a bit because the season is lost.
Eddie Jurak said:The one thing we can be absolutely certain of is that Betts will not be called up as a "white flag move".
He's not on the 40-man, and does not need to be protected in next year's rule 5 draft.
Similar to Bogaerts last year, the only way he gets a call up is if they think he can help the team make the playoffs or win in the playoffs.
Dickerson was also a .775 guy in twice the sample size last year. The Rockies manager also keeps benching him in favor of better defenders for RF too (which is why he's averaging 2.6 PA per game this season). He also had a massive home/road split last year.maxotaur said:I'm against any sort of reactionary moves by the Sox right now. The simple reason being I don't think any one arm or bat is going to turn this year around. I would rather just suck it up and stick with the plan.
That being said I would love to get Dickerson on this team. He's a great little lefty batter that currently holds a 1.079 OPS. He may never be a full-time player but he would be a great in a platoon role and a bat to come off the bench when he isn't playing (something we sorely lack now).
That's the problem. The fact that I would be so keen on getting him makes me belive the Rockies feel similar about his value. Regardless of someone's ranking as a prospect (8th or 13th in this instance), the acid test of the big league washes that out. We have all heard of innumerable top prospects who just died upon reaching the Show. Right now Dickerson is proving he belongs here. Very much so.
I like Workman. He's a good pitcher. But it's going to take a good deal more than a 1:1 swap. Think about adding something else that makes this realistic. And the key word is Realistic - have you seen Hassan play? Then talk to Ben.
nattysez said:Farrell on Nava:
Let me translate this: "Ben Cherington called me last night and told me that I'd better start platooning Nava and Gomes if I didn't want to have to find my own transportation home from Cleveland."
It has been mentioned in a few places that Nava has changed his approach and is swinging for the fences.
“I don’t know where people come up with that idea,” he said. “That’s the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever heard. I never just step in the box and try to hit a home run. Never. When you’re not going well there’s obviously going to be things out there. My approach hasn’t changed. I haven’t done a single thing that’s different.”
Nava said there was “probably some mechanical stuff that changed, but it wasn’t conscious.
joe dokes said:
I know this is hyperbole, but the idea that teh GM is telling the Manager who to play is nonsense. That would be the most poorly kept secret in town if it ever happened.
As for something of substance, I haven't seen this theory before. Cafardo caveat, but still:
So its "ridiculous" that he was swinging for fences, but "there were some mechnaical stuf..."
Of course, we wouldn't have thought Bogaerts would be a difference maker last season at age 20, and he was.Red(s)HawksFan said:
Then I don't expect to see him this season. I'm not calling the season lost by any means, but I also don't think the season will be significantly impacted by a 21-year-old rookie who happens to be off to a hot start in AA. He's not a difference maker and he shouldn't be viewed/treated as such.
Eddie Jurak said:Of course, we wouldn't have thought Bogaerts would be a difference maker last season at age 20, and he was.
If the Red Sox are in the playoffs, I think Mookie has better than even odds of being on the playoff roster. But you are right that he won't be the difference between making the playoffs vs not.
Hard for us fans, mostly watching hitters on TV or occasionally at a game, to analyze what's wrong with a guy that goes bad. Unless a guy is bailing out, or changes his hands or stance or is doing something else obvious, tough for us. Pitchers are easier, although maybe I say that because Lester's funk a couple of years ago could easily be seen on TV . Sometimes hitters come out of it suddenly. A not everyday player, like Nava, that got off to a horrible start and came out of it recently is Gregor Blanco of the Giants. He said it was a confidence thing. OK. No help here, I know.Rovin Romine said:Has anyone tried to analyze what's wrong with Nava? JBJ and Sizemore are to some extent expected, but it's like Nava just fell off a cliff. Usually when a player tanks this badly there's some speculation as to why. I don't think I've seen any yet so far.
The team is only four games out of the Wild Card and may still be right in the middle of that race in late July. Given that the Wild Card is often decided by a single game in the standings, could Betts represent a 1 win upgrade over the last two months of the season vis-a-vis guys on the existing roster? Its hard to say until we see how Betts fares in AAA but that's not implausible to me.Red(s)HawksFan said:That's fair. The Red Sox were making the post-season with or without Bogaerts last year. Just as the 2007 team was making the post-season with or without Ellsbury coming up. Their contributions in the post-season are a different animal. If they get there this year, there's a fair chance Mookie could be a contributor in the post-season.
My point was that a lot of other things have to be righted or fixed for this team to make the post-season. Rushing Mookie Betts through AAA in the hopes that he can not only contribute but represent a significant upgrade in the second half is not going to be one of those fixes.
They really don't. We need to get healthy. Napoli, Victorino, and even Middlebrooks against lefties so Drew can sit change the lineup dramatically.geoduck no quahog said:I know the playoffs are a crapshoot (tm)...but the odds of a very flawed Red Sox (or Yankee) team succeeding against one of (Tigers, A's, or even Blue Jays) in a series have got to be pretty slim
Rasputin said:They really don't. We need to get healthy. Napoli, Victorino, and even Middlebrooks against lefties so Drew can sit change the lineup dramatically.
Other than that, we're just looking at Bradley improving to be the high OBP guy we know he can be and trading for a platoon partner for Gomes.
We won't be the favorites but we can win the division and hope we don't get the Tigers or As in the Division series.
Adrian's Dome said:
Plus, this team has really been dragged down by the performances of the 4th and 5th starters. Leaning heavily on Lester, Lackey, and the back end of the bullpen, who the hell knows what could happen. Sometimes you get lucky, but you've got to make it there first.
There's no reason to believe in the first week of June that the team is a bunch of dead men walking, effectiveness of the current outfield aside.
trade Koji? they should be looking to extend him if anythingRudy Pemberton said:While the Sox aren't that far out, they've got a better record than exactly two AL teams- Tampa and Houston. So there in it to the extent that everyone else is too. They are the sixth worst team in baseball, despite having played 54% of their schedule at home. They need a ton of things to suddenly change to have a chance. Could happen but I wouldn't waste any resources to make a run and would probably at least be thinking about moving guys like Uehara, Gomes, Breslow, Peavy, Drew, etc.
benhogan said:trade Koji? they should be looking to extend him if anything