The premature re-signing Lester thread

[Tyrone Biggums]

Gordon Edes ‏@GordonEdes [URL="https://twitter.com/GordonEdes/status/532670459246948352

https://twitter.com/GordonEdes/status/532670459246948352"]2m2

link to tweet minutes ago[/url]
Sox owners to meet with Lesters agents soon, perhaps by end of week, strongest sign yet of clubs interest in keeping him
 
Bolded mine

The longer the process plays out the less likely it is for Lester to return. If they can pull this off then they would have received a competitive balance pick and Cespedes for 2 months of a Lester rental. Seeing him in an Oakland uniform was like seeing Andy Pettitte in a Astros uniform. Just weird.

 

[SoxinSeattle]

Sign him up, get some Bud Light, call McNamee and let's watch one of hell of pitcher in the twilight of his career.
 
In all seriousness I think if the Sox are going to pay pitcher too much money over the age of thirty it should be the one they know the best, who has been consistent and had very few injuries. Bring Lestah home!

 

[soxhop411]

PHOENIX -- In the strongest indication yet of the Red Sox’s interest in re-signing pitcher Jon Lester, team ownership is planning to meet with Lester’s agents, Seth and Sam Levinson, perhaps as soon as the end of the week.

Seth Levinson said Wednesday that he has been in touch with Red Sox owners, attempting to arrange a meeting in the next several days. Lester also has meetings scheduled with other clubs next week, but the Red Sox will have a chance, in advance of Lester’s meetings with other clubs, to launch a preemptive strike and persuade Lester of how much they want him back.
 
    A meeting with ownership should make it clear whether the Sox are indeed serious about Lester or instead will turn from him to pursue other alternatives.

Is it possible they could strike an agreement immediately? Lester may feel an obligation to visit with other clubs, including the Chicago Cubs, that have expressed their interest, but a quick deal with the Red Sox cannot be ruled out altogether. The Sox have never made an offer beyond the four-year, $70 million one they made in mid-March last spring, but sources with direct knowledge of the Sox offseason plans say that Boston may be prepared to offer as many as six years for Lester, with one source speculating the bid could reach the $132 million threshold.


 

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/print?id=41106

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Well, don't you also have to assume the additional Lester cost? I mean, I'm assuming they could have signed him a year ago for a lot less than it takes now.

You could look at it like that. You could however look at Cespedes and the pick being worth around 20 million from the time they acquired him which if Lester signs for a discount at 6/120- 6-130 makes it a solid gamble. At the time of the trade it made sense to pull the trigger since Lester was at the time probably going to hit the market anyways and the outfielders in free agency were almost non existent. You combine that with a premium in power hitting and the Sox are a better team on paper already by keeping Cespedes and signing Lester.

If Lester wanted 110 like many people reported and he gets 130 then the Sox break even or slightly come out ahead due to the value of the 18 months of Cespedes and the pick.

At the end of the day I've said this since he was traded. He's coming back. I can't see him being away from Pedroia Ortiz and others that he has had a great relationship with for that long. They'll settle on somewhere between 120-130 and move on.

 

[glennhoffmania]

Didn't Boston give Oakland some cash in the deal too?  

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Didn't Boston give Oakland some cash in the deal too?  

It was a minimal amount . I'm trying to remember the number. Regardless I could be underestimating how much Cespedes is worth as he could have been 20 million over 18 months and the pick is probably around 4 or 5 since its not exactly the first round but a competitive balance pick.

 

[glennhoffmania]

It was a minimal amount . I'm trying to remember the number. Regardless I could be underestimating how much Cespedes is worth as he could have been 20 million over 18 months and the pick is probably around 4 or 5 since its not exactly the first round but a competitive balance pick.

 
Yeah I've been trying to find it too but no luck so far.  Either way I'm with you on this.  If they can sign Lester then it was totally worth it.

 

[pjr]

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/87221336/red-sox-trade-jon-lester-to-as-for-yoenis-cespedes
 
As part of the deal, the Red Sox sent cash to the A's -- less than $1 million, according to a source. The Red Sox also get the second pick in the Competitive Balance Round B of next year's Draft.

 

[bankshot1]

Seth Levinson said Wednesday that he has been in touch with Red Sox owners, attempting to arrange a meeting in the next several days. Lester also has meetings scheduled with other clubs next week, but the Red Sox will have a chance, in advance of Lester’s meetings with other clubs, to launch a preemptive strike and persuade Lester of how much they want him back.
 

 
So this is coming from Lester's agents to Edes to the world? This sounds like pump-priming for Lester.

 

[canderson]

Is it possible Lester hated his short time in Oakland and realizes the comfort of Boston (if he indeed feels that)? Could that factor into the Sox aggressive front perhaps?

 

[Plympton91]

It sounds to me like Lester is shopping around for market value, but will give Boston a chance to either set the market and sign him this week, or wait for the market to develop and get a chance to match it later, perhaps at a nominal discount if the offer is from someplace he doesn't really want to go.

 

[Steve Dillard]

Bradford told WEEI that the meeting between BC and the Levinsons was out in the middle of the hotel lobby.  Today's report from Gordon Edes of the Sox ownership meeting with Lester was obviously leaked when it could have been done in private.
 
That and the fact that BC has repeatedly stated immediately after the trade that they would be interested and know him, etc., looks like they want to diffuse the thought that they are cheap with a favorite son.
 
My take is Lester is using the Sox to build his market, and the Sox are using Lester to build their "we were really interested but he got too expensive" excuse when he signs elsewhere.

 

[soxhop411]

“@nickcafardo: Ben Cherington just spoke to a Levinson (Jon Lester) for second straight day”

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

My take is Lester is using the Sox to build his market, and the Sox are using Lester to build their "we were really interested but he got too expensive" excuse when he signs elsewhere.

 
Or, you know... they are actually interested in him, even at market rate. It's funny... no matter what happens, it's going to fit someone's narrative. Either he doesn't sign and the "they never wanted him" brigade will come out of the woodwork. Or he does sign and the "they had a deal worked out under the table before the trade" crowd will start waving their flags.

The most likely scenario is that they valued him differently than he valued himself back in April and they weren't close when they made their initial offer so they decided to let the season play out. He pitched lights out, his market exploded and the Sox fell out of contention very quickly, so they decided to trade him with the intention of revisiting talks after the season just like they would have if he'd stayed put. They got an offer they liked, they accepted. No hard feelings. Now, here we are in November, and the two sides are talking.
 
I know it doesn't make for good headlines or message board posts, but it's a whole lot more likely than the Sox not being interested in one of the best pitchers on the market (whom they have extensive familiarity with) or the Sox having some kind of conspiracy worked out with Lester to steal some talent from another team even though he never intended to sign anywhere but Boston this winter.

 

[alwyn96]

I'm trying to understand why the Sox would meet with Lester's team for two hours but not make an offer. They know the guy, they supposedly want him. A guy like Gammons (best Rolodex in the biz, I hear) says they have a 2% chane of signing him, why? Are they making the appearance of trying to get him done and / or seeing if he'll agree to a team friendly deal of really trying to sign him? I'm not convinced that the winner of this sweepstakes will be a winner for long, but the range if expectations from the experts on what happens here is interesting to say the least.

 
I'm always kind of amazed at how the free agent dance goes. Meeting with agents for hours and weeks without official offers is pretty par for the course, but I have no idea what they talk about. Seems like it's just the way things go with most teams, but it's weird when probably 95% of the decisions probably boil down to money/years. Are they shooting the shit, talking about the weather, exchanging platitudes about being ready to win, detailing the many luxury accommodations of Fenway park, what? I wonder if it's like sitting through a time-share pitch or something. 

 

[Harry Hooper]

“@nickcafardo: Ben Cherington just spoke to a Levinson (Jon Lester) for second straight day”

 
 
 
Cherington enters elevator: Eleven, please.
Levinson presses button: Sure.
Cherington: Thanks.

 

[FelixMantilla]

http://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/629040
 

Lester is scheduled to meet with representatives from the Chicago Cubs next week, according to ESPN's Jesse Rogers. The Cubs are among the favorites to land the 30-year-old left-hander given the franchise's resources and Lester's history with team president Theo Epstein.

 

[soxhop411]

Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe  3m3 minutes ago
Details still being worked out on a meeting with Lester's agents and #RedSox ownership sometime soon. Chance the pitcher could be involved.

 

[RedOctober3829]

@PeteAbe: Details still being worked out on a meeting with Lester's agents and #RedSox ownership sometime soon. Chance the pitcher could be involved.

 

[jimbobim]

There's no point in having ownership sit down with Lester unless they're willing to go 120-140 range 6 years and if I'm Lester and his agent a  full no trade ... Close to market value with perhaps a 15-20 mill haircut for the no trade. 

 

[jimbobim]

Abes with a useful and intriguing quote ... positive vibes...
 
The meeting, details of which were first reported by ESPN, could take place by the end of this week and Lester could be in attendance. The lefthander has consistently said he wants to return to the Red Sox, even after he was traded to Oakland in July.
 
“We’re working on the details,” Seth Levinson said on Wednesday night. “It would be best to sit down [with the Red Sox owners] and see where we are.”
 
Lester is scheduled to visit Chicago and meet with the Cubs and old friend Theo Epstein next week. Meetings with other teams could follow.

 

[Luis Taint]

Is it possible Lester hated his short time in Oakland and realizes the comfort of Boston (if he indeed feels that)? Could that factor into the Sox aggressive front perhaps?

I know it comes of as homerish, but I have to imagine Lester knows that his legacy in baseball is rooted in Boston. He comes back and he is a potential H.O.Fer on a consistent contender( at least every other year). If he goes to another team, he could end up a good pitcher on a shitty team, and eventually just a J.A.G.

 

[JohntheBaptist]

I know it comes of as homerish, but I have to imagine Lester knows that his legacy in baseball is rooted in Boston. He comes back and he is a potential H.O.Fer on a consistent contender( at least every other year). If he goes to another team, he could end up a good pitcher on a shitty team, and eventually just a J.A.G.

 
...and because he made that decision kids, to forego his legacy, ol' Jon Lester's tombstone read:
 
Just a Just Another Guy

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I know it comes of as homerish, but I have to imagine Lester knows that his legacy in baseball is rooted in Boston. He comes back and he is a potential H.O.Fer on a consistent contender( at least every other year). If he goes to another team, he could end up a good pitcher on a shitty team, and eventually just a J.A.G.

 
His legacy may be rooted in Boston but his maximum wealth (and probably by a large margin) is rooted in other cities such as Chicago, Los Angeles or even New York.  

 

[Luis Taint]

 
...and because he made that decision kids, to forego his legacy, ol' Jon Lester's tombstone read:
 
Just a Just Another Guy

I am trying to be postive

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I am trying to be postive

 
I appreciate that as well and I would love to see Lester return to the Red Sox.  However, what has changed from last spring and this summer?  Why would the Sox risk losing him by giving him a taste of playing with another team, only to turn around and pay market for his services?  It makes little sense unless you buy into some wacky plan that he hatched with the front office to obtain talent at the trade deadline from a team seeking Lester's services.   
 
I hope I am wrong but Lester will be pitching for a team not named the Red Sox for the remainder of his career.

 

[chrisfont9]

 
The most likely scenario is that they valued him differently than he valued himself back in April and they weren't close when they made their initial offer so they decided to let the season play out. He pitched lights out, his market exploded and the Sox fell out of contention very quickly, so they decided to trade him with the intention of revisiting talks after the season just like they would have if he'd stayed put. They got an offer they liked, they accepted. No hard feelings. Now, here we are in November, and the two sides are talking.

It's probably worth reminding folks that in 2013, he was poor for about six weeks from late May to early July, which wouldn't mean much if he hadn't been horrible for most of 2012 and collapsed in September, 2011. On the flip side, he was also mostly good/great for about four months of 2013, plus obviously the postseason. Still, the market where Lester is a sure-fire ace going forward and warrants Tanaka money didn't take shape until halfway through this season. So while we can bitch about the $70 mil offer, people should remember that there was at least some reason to hesitate a year ago.

 

[soxhop411]

 
I appreciate that as well and I would love to see Lester return to the Red Sox.  However, what has changed from last spring and this summer?  Why would the Sox risk losing him by giving him a taste of playing with another team, only to turn around and pay market for his services?  It makes little sense unless you buy into some wacky plan that he hatched with the front office to obtain talent at the trade deadline from a team seeking Lester's services.   
 
I hope I am wrong but Lester will be pitching for a team not named the Red Sox for the remainder of his career.

I assume the sox would have kept Lester if they were in the playoff race. Lester has said even after the trade that he loves BOS and wants to go back

 

[chrisfont9]

I know it comes of as homerish, but I have to imagine Lester knows that his legacy in baseball is rooted in Boston. He comes back and he is a potential H.O.Fer on a consistent contender( at least every other year). If he goes to another team, he could end up a good pitcher on a shitty team, and eventually just a J.A.G.

Ah, I bet the Yankees could score enough runs to win with Lester-Tanaka-Pineda-whoever else. To me they remain the biggest threat. Chicago… why would Lester go play for a marginal team? I think they're using Theo to drive up the price. And the Yankees are telling people they aren't interested, which is what they say every time they're interested in someone. 

 

[JohntheBaptist]

Well, Rickey did it, didn't he? I don't think anyone can say it's far-fetched or likely to happen--he doesn't seem closed-off to the idea, and they need a pitcher. It doesn't have to have been some long-term plan if it comes to pass, these are dynamic situations. He's a creature of habit supposedly and so maybe hated being in Oakland; he got lowballed and traded after leading the team to another World Series and maybe secretly is just stringing them along to up his market and is playing the PR game in the press. Who knows.
 
I do think it's far-fetched to suggest that the Sox traded him banking on him returning in any way. I think they traded him having made peace with the idea that he may not pitch there ever again, not "well OK, we'll just sign him this winter." Personally, I do find it a little off how transparent both sides seem to be toward the media regarding their meetings and discussions, but I could be reading into it a bit much.

 

[Lowrielicious]

Ah, I bet the Yankees could score enough runs to win with Lester-Tanaka-Pineda-whoever else. To me they remain the biggest threat. Chicago… why would Lester go play for a marginal team? I think they're using Theo to drive up the price. And the Yankees are telling people they aren't interested, which is what they say every time they're interested in someone. 

 
Chicago has some serious positional/hitting talent coming up through the ranks that will be peaking in the 2-5 year timescale. What they need is frontline pitching.
Lester isn't signing for a 2 year deal.
 
If Lester went to Chicago and was an ace for the team that finally won a world series for them and pitched well there for 6 or so years do you think it will be a sox hat or a cubs hat that he wears to his hypothetical HOF induction?

 

[chrisfont9]

 
Chicago has some serious positional/hitting talent coming up through the ranks that will be peaking in the 2-5 year timescale. What they need is frontline pitching.
Lester isn't signing for a 2 year deal.
 
If Lester went to Chicago and was an ace for the team that finally won a world series for them and pitched well there for 6 or so years do you think it will be a sox hat or a cubs hat that he wears to his hypothetical HOF induction?

OK, but that's a lot of projection. I get that they have a lot of positional talent coming, but so do the Sox, and "coming" is not the same as "arrived" as we just witnessed. It's possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[Van Everyman]

Actually, he's on the phone with Curt Schilling asking if he can bring the bloody sock to Chicago. It's an odd conversation because he's also getting an earful about evolution.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Wow, Jon Lester is a potential HoFer now?

We are officially in silly season I guess.

To play devils advocate here if Jon Lester averages 15 wins a season over the duration of his new contract and has a few more sub 3 era seasons then this doesn't become so far fetched anymore. Post season resume isn't hurting him either.

 

[Lowrielicious]

To play devils advocate here if Jon Lester averages 15 wins a season over the duration of his new contract and has a few more sub 3 era seasons then this doesn't become so far fetched anymore. Post season resume isn't hurting him either.

3 straight 150 ERA+ seasons. If this his level going forward for the next 5-6 years before tailing off and he maintains his good health along with his postseason dominance then he will be right in the conversation. His development was delayed for a while which could mean he found his level a bit later than usual.

If he then also is a main contributor to a cubs ring added to his two already with boston he'll get plenty of votes.

Long way to go and plenty of "ifs" but it's far from out of the question.

 

[Laser Show]

3 straight 150 ERA+ seasons. If this his level going forward for the next 5-6 years before tailing off and he maintains his good health along with his postseason dominance then he will be right in the conversation. His development was delayed for a while which could mean he found his level a bit later than usual.

If he then also is a main contributor to a cubs ring added to his two already with boston he'll get plenty of votes.

Long way to go and plenty of "ifs" but it's far from out of the question.

I think you read baseball reference wrong because I just did the same thing. That's 150 ERA+ for all of 2014, and both his Red Sox stint and his A's stint.
 
He did have 4 years of 120+ ERA+ before the 2012 dip, then bounced back to 110 before this year. I think it's certainly possible he puts himself in the conversation but right now he's "Hall of Very Good" and it's not particularly close.

 

[Lowrielicious]

I think you read baseball reference wrong because I just did the same thing. That's 150 ERA+ for all of 2014, and both his Red Sox stint and his A's stint.
 
He did have 4 years of 120+ ERA+ before the 2012 dip, then bounced back to 110 before this year. I think it's certainly possible he puts himself in the conversation but right now he's "Hall of Very Good" and it's not particularly close.

Ah yeah good catch. That's annoying. Looks like I need a wider screen on my phone.

 

[JimD]

Ah, I bet the Yankees could score enough runs to win with Lester-Tanaka-Pineda-whoever else. To me they remain the biggest threat. Chicago… why would Lester go play for a marginal team? I think they're using Theo to drive up the price. And the Yankees are telling people they aren't interested, which is what they say every time they're interested in someone. 

 
The Yankees are more likely than the Cubs to be the marginal team in the coming years, IMO.  Add in the Theo connection and the possibility of making history, plus the upcoming talent as others have noted, and that makes Chicago a serious threat to sign him.

 

[joe dokes]

 
Or, you know... they are actually interested in him, even at market rate. It's funny... no matter what happens, it's going to fit someone's narrative. Either he doesn't sign and the "they never wanted him" brigade will come out of the woodwork. Or he does sign and the "they had a deal worked out under the table before the trade" crowd will start waving their flags.
The most likely scenario is that they valued him differently than he valued himself back in April and they weren't close when they made their initial offer so they decided to let the season play out. He pitched lights out, his market exploded and the Sox fell out of contention very quickly, so they decided to trade him with the intention of revisiting talks after the season just like they would have if he'd stayed put. They got an offer they liked, they accepted. No hard feelings. Now, here we are in November, and the two sides are talking.
 
I know it doesn't make for good headlines or message board posts, but it's a whole lot more likely than the Sox not being interested in one of the best pitchers on the market (whom they have extensive familiarity with) or the Sox having some kind of conspiracy worked out with Lester to steal some talent from another team even though he never intended to sign anywhere but Boston this winter.

 
Put another way.....they're all acting like adults AND not griping in public..   While the hot-take crowd will frame this as a a zero sum game in which someone "realized they were wrong" and someone else "came to the table with tail between legs", resulting in a "winner" and a "loser," the truth is probably very close to Muff's view.
 
One point...although not a "conspiracy," I do believe that when the Sox decided that trading him was a real thing, they they were hoping to -- if not exclusively trying to -- move him to a team in contention (who else would want him) that was unlikely to re-sign him, like Oakland, or KC, or maybe Pit.  hell, they might have even explored TB.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I think the Sox interest is real, they will make him a legit offer that would have gotten him signed a few months ago, but more likely than not he will sign elsewhere.

 

[ivanvamp]

To play devils advocate here if Jon Lester averages 15 wins a season over the duration of his new contract and has a few more sub 3 era seasons then this doesn't become so far fetched anymore. Post season resume isn't hurting him either.

 
He could get to 200 wins (which will be the new benchmark for SP).  He's at 116 now, leaving him 84 shy.  Six years at 14 wins per year gets him there.  I think that's very doable.  7 years at 15 wins per year (it would likely require a couple of 18 win seasons) gets him to 221, a very healthy number.
 
Add in a few all-star seasons, a few more top 5 CYA finishes (maybe getting one CYA along the way), a sparkling postseason resume, three WS rings (hoping he gets another with Boston, or, if not us, the Cubbies), and a career era in the low to mid 3's, and that's a pretty interesting Hall of Fame candidacy.  
 
And I think all those things are very doable for him.

 

[nvalvo]

 
He could get to 200 wins (which will be the new benchmark for SP).  He's at 116 now, leaving him 84 shy.  Six years at 14 wins per year gets him there.  I think that's very doable.  7 years at 15 wins per year (it would likely require a couple of 18 win seasons) gets him to 221, a very healthy number.
 
Add in a few all-star seasons, a few more top 5 CYA finishes (maybe getting one CYA along the way), a sparkling postseason resume, three WS rings (hoping he gets another with Boston, or, if not us, the Cubbies), and a career era in the low to mid 3's, and that's a pretty interesting Hall of Fame candidacy.  
 
And I think all those things are very doable for him.

 
If he sticks around, the top few spots on the Sox All-Time Win list would be attainable with good health: Young and Clemens, 192; Wakefield, 186.

 

[yecul]

My take is part cynical and part realistic.
 
At the time of the deal I stated this and still feel the same way:  Boston will make Lester a very competitive offer, but one that is short of market rate (e.g. 5 or 6 years instead of 6 or 7; 110-130m instead of 125-150m -- whatever ranges you want to use). A good faith effort where they look to set him up for life (moreso) but still get a hometown discount. I would be surprised if they had the best offer on the table, but we'll never know that.
 
The cynic in my thinks a lot of this is grandstanding. They know the above. They know their offer won't be best and that he won't give them a big discount. So it's for us, the fans. See, look at us. Let us leak all this info, let us meet up in public, etc.  We're serious. We tried.
 
Now, clearly that is just my opinion and view and I may be way off. I also recognize that the agent has great interest in getting such info out there and reporters have interest in distributing any tidbit they can get their hands on. So, grain of salt. We'll know more soon enough when reports of offers hit the wire and he signs a deal somewhere.

Lester returning to the Sox will mean he left money on the table, IMO.

 

[snowmanny]

My take is part cynical and part realistic.
 
At the time of the deal I stated this and still feel the same way:  Boston will make Lester a very competitive offer, but one that is short of market rate (e.g. 5 or 6 years instead of 6 or 7; 110-130m instead of 125-150m -- whatever ranges you want to use). A good faith effort where they look to set him up for life (moreso) but still get a hometown discount. I would be surprised if they had the best offer on the table, but we'll never know that.
 
The cynic in my thinks a lot of this is grandstanding. They know the above. They know their offer won't be best and that he won't give them a big discount. So it's for us, the fans. See, look at us. Let us leak all this info, let us meet up in public, etc.  We're serious. We tried.
 
Now, clearly that is just my opinion and view and I may be way off. I also recognize that the agent has great interest in getting such info out there and reporters have interest in distributing any tidbit they can get their hands on. So, grain of salt. We'll know more soon enough when reports of offers hit the wire and he signs a deal somewhere.
Lester returning to the Sox will mean he left money on the table, IMO.

This is exactly how I feel.  It all seems calculated to end in a pretty good offer that might have been accepted in June but is declined in November.  My perspective on this may however be altered by watching previous failed negotiations which went that way, such as Damon and Martinez and Clemens, which I know actually range from having slight to zero relevance to the Lester deal. 

 

[Otis Foster]

I'm not as cynical as Yecul because I'm not sure JH/BC like to play those games. IMO, they'll authorize an offer that they think stands a chance, within their discipline, but the last part is important. They're not going to break the bank for Lester.
 
The Cubbies on the other hand might. Theo has the money, a mandate to revamp the franchise and a preexisting relationship with Lester that I assume is positive. Furthermore, Lester only costs money - no loss of draft choice.
 
I suspect we'll see soon. BC, Lester and the Levinsons have apparently scheduled a face to face meeting.

 

[GRPhilipp]

While the HOF talk is probably premature, the discussion of trying to re-sign him has certainly come of age.  Time to change the thread title?

 

[KillerBs]

It will be fascinating to see it play out. It's encouraging to me that the Sox are getting out there early and seeing if they can get a deal done with Lester early, instead of waiting for things to play out. I am sure they must have spent October gaming out this off season and it appears the plan is to go out aggressively and see if they can get Lester (and/or Pablo) done at certain numbers, and if not, to move on from there. This approach has the risk of maybe costing the team a few dollars but gives the team more control over what they end up getting.
 
I still think Lester has them in a tight spot and the main question is how hard is he going to press the advantage. If the Sox don't get him done, and he signs with the Cubs, then practically the Sox are left with the option of paying Scherzer prolly at least another 20M more than Lester (which I don't think they want to do), trying to get Shields done in a context where we are desperate and everyone knows it, or dealing one or more of the real jewels of the farm for the likes of Cueto or Samardzija.
 
That said, I am still left wondering who else other than the Cubs and Sox are seriously in the market for either Lester or Scherzer. If the Yanks are truly out, could the price on Scherzer drop after Lester signs, or vice versa?    

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

I'm HOPING this is a Varitek-like negotiation process.  Take a look around, go through the FA-motions, but all the time intend to extort the most he can from Boston before resigning. 
 
Do I think that's what's going on?  Not really.  But certainly not impossible.

 

[Harry Hooper]

While the HOF talk is probably premature, the discussion of trying to re-sign him has certainly come of age.  Time to change the thread title?

 
How about "The premature Lester has re-signed thread"?

 

[Oil Can Dan]

I'm HOPING this is a Varitek-like negotiation process.  Take a look around, go through the FA-motions, but all the time intend to extort the most he can from Boston before resigning. 
 
Do I think that's what's going on?  Not really.  But certainly not impossible.

I actually do think that's a likely scenario. I think Lester puts a lot of weight on he and his family's comfort level. I recall him speaking on that at some point. And I think the legacy component is important to him although I admit that's just speculation on my part.

He was drafted here, he beat cancer while here, he's won rings here and understands and appreciates the environment here. This was (or maybe more appropriately is) home to him. If the money is close he'll be back. Didn't he also once say something about an extra few million not meaning much when put into context of a nine-figure contract?