The premature re-signing Lester thread

[Savin Hillbilly]

He was drafted here, he beat cancer while here, he's won rings here and understands and appreciates the environment here. This was (or maybe more appropriately is) home to him. If the money is close he'll be back. Didn't he also once say something about an extra few million not meaning much when put into context of a nine-figure contract?

 
This part we don't really know. It's entirely possible to spend a long time in a work situation, succeed there, attain a considerable comfort level there, but never feel really rooted there. If that's where Lester's at, the idea of a new situation in Chicago might be very appealing. I can imagine Theo making a very strong pitch to Lester around doing for Cubs fans what Theo and Tito did for Boston fans in 2004, and how Lester can play a leadership role in that--that he could play the same kind of role on a championship Cubs team that Schilling played in 2004.

 

[RedOctober3829]

This part we don't really know. It's entirely possible to spend a long time in a work situation, succeed there, attain a considerable comfort level there, but never feel really rooted there. If that's where Lester's at, the idea of a new situation in Chicago might be very appealing. I can imagine Theo making a very strong pitch to Lester around doing for Cubs fans what Theo and Tito did for Boston fans in 2004, and how Lester can play a leadership role in that--that he could play the same kind of role on a championship Cubs team that Schilling played in 2004.

That's all well and good, but the Cubs aren't close to winning the WS like the 04 Sox were.

 

[Otis Foster]

I actually do think that's a likely scenario. I think Lester puts a lot of weight on he and his family's comfort level. I recall him speaking on that at some point. And I think the legacy component is important to him although I admit that's just speculation on my part.

He was drafted here, he beat cancer while here, he's won rings here and understands and appreciates the environment here. This was (or maybe more appropriately is) home to him. If the money is close he'll be back. Didn't he also once say something about an extra few million not meaning much when put into context of a nine-figure contract?

 I find it hard to square this conjecture with selling his house. That's a very distinct break from any 'comfort zone', unless he was simply moving to another suburb, and there's been no report of that.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

That's all well and good, but the Cubs aren't close to winning the WS like the 04 Sox were.

 
Are they within 3-4 years? That's all Theo needs to be able to convince Lester of if he's pitching a 5-6 year deal.

 

[Oil Can Dan]

Maybe it's as simple as a $1.8m house isn't suitable for a guy about to sign a $125m+ contract.

 

[glennhoffmania]

 
Are they within 3-4 years? That's all Theo needs to be able to convince Lester of if he's pitching a 5-6 year deal.

 
If his goal is to win as many rings as possible, why go to a team that wouldn't have a shot for the first 3 or 4 years (assuming your estimate is accurate)?
 
Now Rudy may be correct in asking whether the Cubs are currently much worse than the Sox.  But if I had to bet which team would win more rings over the next 6 years, I think I'd confidently take Boston. 

 

[joe dokes]

With all the real estate talk, I thought his "permanent" home, so to speak, has been in Georgia the last few years.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

In kismet terms, the Cubs are about 100 years further away than the Sox.

 

[grimshaw]

Theo can just say "Hey Jonny, wanna do this again?" No other salesmanship needed with what those guys have been through.
 
Further the Cubs are in a position to trade for, or sign any 2 to 3 players they want with their farm system and willingness to spend.
 
Can you imagine how much he'd be revered if he brought the Cubs a World Series title, and how much less pressure is on him if he chokes in Chicago rather than Boston?  He really can't lose.
 
I'm thinking being on the Cubs the next few years is the new hip thing those crazy FA cats are thinking about.
 
I don't really care who the Red Sox get as long as he's a 1 or a 2, not Scherzer, and isn't an ass. 

 

[EvilEmpire]

Lester does seem to pitch better during the day. Theo should sell him on all those day games.

 

[Average Reds]

 I find it hard to square this conjecture with selling his house. That's a very distinct break from any 'comfort zone', unless he was simply moving to another suburb, and there's been no report of that.

 
Not everything needs to be broken down like individual frames of the Zapruder film.
 
Buying or renting a house that is tailored to the specific needs of his family today (as opposed to 5 or 6 years ago) is about the easiest thing Lester will be doing.  And he'll be doing it with a lot more cash than he had when he bought his first house in Boston.
 
The sale of his current house is an indicator of nothing.

 

[Harry Hooper]

With all the real estate talk, I thought his "permanent" home, so to speak, has been in Georgia the last few years.

 
Rosenthal yesterday had this:

 

other clubs will want in on Lester, too.
 
One of those teams could be the Braves.
 
John Hart, the team's president of baseball operations, says the Braves are not pursuing top-tier free-agent starters such as Lester. But Hart probably should add, “right now.”
 
Lester, 31, lives in Sharpsburg, Ga., outside Atlanta. The Braves need starting pitching. And if they clear enough payroll — something they actively are trying to do — then their entire approach to the offseason could change.
 
The Braves indeed have touched base with Lester's representatives, according to major-league sources. Their contact might only be a matter of due diligence. But they would be foolish to outright ignore a local resident, no?
 
Of course, the Braves and other clubs probably should best stay away if the Cubs and Red Sox stage a bidding war over Lester, a pitcher with strong ties to the top executives of both teams.
 

 

[Otis Foster]

 
Not everything needs to be broken down like individual frames of the Zapruder film.
 
Buying or renting a house that is tailored to the specific needs of his family today (as opposed to 5 or 6 years ago) is about the easiest thing Lester will be doing.  And he'll be doing it with a lot more cash than he had when he bought his first house in Boston.
 
The sale of his current house is an indicator of nothing.

 
I'd have more confidence in your confidence if there was any indication he was relocating in the Greater Boston area.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

I think it's funny how much the Theo angle is getting played up re: Lester.  I get that Theo might be more willing to give big money to a player he knows, and I suppose that the Cubs having Theo could instill some faith in Lester that they will be able to construct a good team.  But otherwise, from Lester's POV, how much do we really think a player cares about who the GM or team president is?  On the list of important criteria, my guess is that it doesn't make the top 10, let alone the top 5.  Maybe it's a tie breaker, all other things being equal,  But all other things are rarely equal.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

As for the Braves, my guess is that a Lester deal could only enter the realm of possibility if they could dump BJ Upton on someone.  But that contract might well be the worst in baseball, so I wouldn't be holding my breath if I'm a Braves fan.

 

[EpsteinsGorillaSuit]

I think it's funny how much the Theo angle is getting played up re: Lester.  I get that Theo might be more willing to give big money to a player he knows, and I suppose that the Cubs having Theo could instill some faith in Lester that they will be able to construct a good team.  But otherwise, from Lester's POV, how much do we really think a player cares about who the GM or team president is?  On the list of important criteria, my guess is that it doesn't make the top 10, let alone the top 5.  Maybe it's a tie breaker, all other things being equal,  But all other things are rarely equal.

 
I don't think it is Theo per se that is exciting about the Cubs, other than he has a track record of putting together winning large-market teams. The attractiveness about going to Chicago is their young core and the potential glory of bringing a World Series - 2004 Red Sox all over again.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

There is the promise of the Cubs' prospects (and Wrigley's renovations, etc.), of course, but I was responding to Rosenthal's blurb noting Lester's "strong ties" to executives from both teams, as though that's a significant factor in his decision-making.  I doubt that it is.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

There is the promise of the Cubs' prospects (and Wrigley's renovations, etc.), of course, but I was responding to Rosenthal's blurb noting Lester's "strong ties" to executives from both teams, as though that's a significant factor in his decision-making.  I doubt that it is.

 
That depends on your definition of "significant."

 

[TomRicardo]

It really seems like Lester is the bell of the ball right now and Schrezer is everyone's No. 2
 
It is probably because Schrezer is represented by Boras.  I wonder if Schrezer ends up with the Cubs.  Epstein has always seemed to have a good working relationship with Boras (despite Lucchiano's horrendous relationship with Boras during Theo's time with the Sox.)

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

It really seems like Lester is the bell of the ball right now and Schrezer is everyone's No. 2
 
It is probably because Schrezer is represented by Boras.  I wonder if Schrezer ends up with the Cubs.  Epstein has always seemed to have a good working relationship with Boras (despite Lucchiano's horrendous relationship with Boras during Theo's time with the Sox.)

 
Everyone has to know Boras will keep Scherzer from signing until after Lester and Shields set the market, above which Scherzer will likely command a premium.

 

[JimD]

Theo can just say "Hey Jonny, wanna do this again?" No other salesmanship needed with what those guys have been through.
 

 
Do what again?  Jon Lester was in A ball in 2004 when the Sox finally broke through. 
 

Can you imagine how much he'd be revered if he brought the Cubs a World Series title, and how much less pressure is on him if he chokes in Chicago rather than Boston?  He really can't lose.

 
I disagree.  Epstein and the Ricketts are pushing all of their chips in the middle of the table with their moves and expectations are changing accordingly.  If Lester goes to Chicago he will be going in as the playoff ace who will be expected to lead the pitching staff and win the biggest games.  If he truly 'chokes' there will be a lot of pressure on him if the Cubbies fail to win a title.

 

[snowmanny]

 
Everyone has to know Boras will keep Scherzer from signing until after Lester and Shields set the market, above which Scherzer will likely
command a premium.

The problem with waiting is two potential bidders might be out of the running. If I were representing Lester, I'd be tempted to wait until Scherzer signed and then go to the teams that finished second or third in the bidding and try to get them to make their last Scherzer offer to Lester.

Edit: what I'm trying to say is I think it makes more sense for the premium guy to set the market first with all bidders in play.

 

[Average Reds]

 
I'd have more confidence in your confidence if there was any indication he was relocating in the Greater Boston area.

 
I'm not confident that Lester will sign with the Sox.  In fact, I strongly suspect he won't.
 
I just don't think the sale of his house is relevant one way or another.  And I think that trying to read anything into it is a fool's game.

 

[Lowrielicious]

 
Do what again?  Jon Lester was in A ball in 2004 when the Sox finally broke through. 
 
 

 
Exactly. 
 
What he could potentially sell to Lester is "Remember seeing how magical it was watching the sox break the drought when you were in the minors? You could be the ace of this team when we do it here in Chicago". 
Whether that's a factor for Jon or not is anybodys guess.  

 

[snowmanny]

Theo tried to trade him away before the 2004 season. Lester should tell him to screw.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

I heard Theo gave him his cancer.  Point Sox.

 

[Fireball Fred]

The importance to the Sox of signing Lester, or one of the top three free agents, is underlined by persistent arguments that they could obtain Samardzija instead. This is, I think, nonsense - S. Is by no means an established #1, and through age 28 really hasn't offered much reason to think he ever will be. He looks like a lesser version of Matt Clement, another ex-Cub righty brought in to fill a gap in the Sox rotation.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

I heard Theo gave him his cancer.  Point Sox.

Wrong. I have it on good authority that Cespedes was the culprit. I read it in the globe!

 

[E5 Yaz]

The Royals have had preliminary discussions with the agents for free-agent left-hander Jon Lester, according to sources close to the situation. Also, a representative from ACES Baseball Agency, which represents Lester, was believed to have been in Kansas City on Wednesday night.
 

Apparently, Lester is a neighbor and hunting buddy of The Mad Bunter.
http://www.foxsports.com/kansas-city/story/sources-royals-have-had-talks-with-lester-s-agents-111414

 

[MakMan44]

It really seems like Lester is the bell of the ball right now and Schrezer is everyone's No. 2
 
It is probably because Schrezer is represented by Boras.  I wonder if Schrezer ends up with the Cubs.  Epstein has always seemed to have a good working relationship with Boras (despite Lucchiano's horrendous relationship with Boras during Theo's time with the Sox.)

Agreed with the overall point, but Schrezer also has the comp pick hanging over his head that Lester does not. 

 

[Al Zarilla]

If his name was Schrezer, he'd have a perfect nickname: the shredder.

Scherzer took out injury insurance on himself last year, after turning down the Tigers offer. His throwing motion looks injury prone to me, vs. Lester, who is wonderfully fluid. Scherzer's delivery is kind of "violent", like he needs to get every ounce into every pitch. Just a notion, based on not much.

Spell checker in the SOSH app does change his name to Schrezer, which is no more common than Scherzer, is it?

 

[OnWisc]

I disagree.  Epstein and the Ricketts are pushing all of their chips in the middle of the table with their moves and expectations are changing accordingly.  If Lester goes to Chicago he will be going in as the playoff ace who will be expected to lead the pitching staff and win the biggest games.  If he truly 'chokes' there will be a lot of pressure on him if the Cubbies fail to win a title.

They're four months removed from dealing Samardzija for a guy in AA. While the Maddon hire has raised expectations, signing Lester would pretty much be their first roster move directed toward pushing their chips in. The Cubs with Samardzija last year were still a pretty lousy team.

Most of the guys popularly viewed as the core of the next Cubs contender are either still in the minors, or have experienced growing pains in their time in majors. Maddon was a splash, but this still isn't something that's happening tomorrow.

 

[benhogan]

They're four months removed from dealing Samardzija for a guy in AA. While the Maddon hire has raised expectations, signing Lester would pretty much be their first roster move directed toward pushing their chips in. The Cubs with Samardzija last year were still a pretty lousy team.

Most of the guys popularly viewed as the core of the next Cubs contender are either still in the minors, or have experienced growing pains in their time in majors. Maddon was a splash, but this still isn't something that's happening tomorrow.

This is a good point. I could see Theo trying to jack prices up on other teams, but avoiding the 'big purchase' this season.
 
A prudent move by Theo would be to wait till Spring and see who hasn't signed and get pitchers on cheap 1 year 'make good' contracts.  Then wait till May/June to call up Bryant (gain an extra year of control).
 
Let a few of their prospects marinate some more, let Maddon start developing a clubhouse culture and go for it next off season.

 

[The Boomer]

This is a good point. I could see Theo trying to jack prices up on other teams, but avoiding the 'big purchases' this season.
 
A prudent move by Theo would be to wait tip Spring and see who hasn't signed and get pitchers on cheap 1 year 'make good' contracts.  Then wait till May/June to call up Bryant, to gain an extra year of control.
 
Let a few of their prospects marinate some more, let Maddon start developing a clubhouse culture and go for it next off season.

 
Shouldn't that be Cherington's strategy too?  Substitute Swihart, Owens, Johnson, Rodriguez and whoever else is ready for Bryant.

 

[seantoo]

Real estate in Boston.

I'm sure I missed this posted on here, but Lester did sell his house in Newton a few months ago. 

 

[pjr]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/east-notes-lester-de-aza-glanville-montgomery.html
 
Red Sox ownership will meet Jon Lester and his agents this week, a likely signal that the Sox are set to make a significant offer, Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston writes. An offer in the $130MM neighborhood ought to be enough to persuade Lester to strongly consider continuing his career in Boston, Edes writes. Six teams reportedly have strong interest in Lester.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

I'd be perfectly happy with a 6/132M deal with a vesting option for a seventh season.

 

[benhogan]

I'm sure I missed this posted on here, but Lester did sell his house in Newton a few months ago. 

yes it was posted a bunch of times, sold it for $1.8MM.
 
Doesn't mean much, since he is in line for a $100MM++ pay day. 
 
He'll upgrade zip codes

 

[mattymatty]

Interesting that we haven't heard a peep from the Yankees yet. Well, maybe now we have. Gammons (via Twitter):
 
am told that while Cubs, Red Sox will meet with Jon Lester this week,Yanks are to be watched, and process could last into December
 
[SIZE=14.3999996185303px](Edit: Sorry, tried to embed the tweet (can be seen here) but failed.) [/SIZE]

 

[koufax32]

Last time were saw the ownership group engage in discussions was with Teixeira, right? That was a "here's our best offer, yes or no?" situation. I have a feeling we'll know if Lester is coming home by the end of next week.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

yes it was posted a bunch of times, sold it for $1.8MM.
 
Doesn't mean much, since he is in line for a $100MM++ pay day. 
 
He'll upgrade zip codes

I want to know where his furniture was shipped. That would be a sure tell. Who's in with local furniture moving companies?

Shit I'm half joking but in this place it wouldn't surprise me if we had an in.

 

[TomRicardo]

 
Interesting that we haven't heard a peep from the Yankees yet. Well, maybe now we have. Gammons (via Twitter):
 
am told that while Cubs, Red Sox will meet with Jon Lester this week,Yanks are to be watched, and process could last into December
 
[SIZE=14.3999996185303px](Edit: Sorry, tried to embed the tweet (can be seen here) but failed.) [/SIZE]
 

 
Not really.  That team really isn't a No.1 pitcher away from contention.  They have a horrible lineup which a completely aged core and are still spending 180+ million.
 
When your problem is your team is filled with over priced over 30 YO players with your only bright light being two injured 20 something starters, your "rational" first move is not double down on paying 20+ million on more 30+ YO players.
 
Cashman is not Amaro.
 
"But they are the Yankees!"  Good I hope they give Schrezer 25 million a year to help them struggle to .500  Because unless Lester or Schrezer are going to give 130 solid games at SS and a power bat in their line up they aren't the solution to the Yankee's problems.

 

[soxhop411]

The Blue Jays evidently aren’t messing around this offseason.
While getting free agent catcher Russell Martin to a five-year, $82 million contract (as first reported by Peter Gammons, Jon Heyman and Ken Rosenthal) served as one of the Jays’ largest offseason commitments in team history, they evidently aren’t intent on stopping there.
According to multiple major league sources, the Blue Jays remain as one of the six clubs to continue to show legitimate interest in free agent pitcher Jon Lester. Also known to be pursuing the lefty are the Cubs and Red Sox, both of whom are expected to meet with the pitcher this week.
According to Cots Contracts, the Blue Jays’ payroll landed at $137,770,000 last season, with Mark Buehrle slated to make the most money of any player on the roster in ’15 ($19 million).
The Martin signing potentially frees up more money for the Cubs, who were thought to be the other the finalists for the 32 year old catcher’s services. It has been reported Lester is scheduled to meet with Chicago Tuesday.
 

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/11/17/sources-blue-jays-continue-to-show-interest-in-jon-lester/

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Only in sports journalism would Russell Martin, a Pirate, signing with the Blue Jays be described as freeing up more money for the Cubs.

 

[grimshaw]

I was curious about durable innings eaters since I am firmly in the "no thank you at those years," camp.
Since 1975 there have been 97 pitchers who have logged more than 1500 innings before their age 31 season.
Here are most of them
 
The ones who held up into their mid to late 30's?
-Halladay - though the fall was very sudden
-Vida Blue
-Andy Pettitte (when healthy)
-Tim Hudson
-Bert Blyleven
-Dennis Martinez
-Mike Mussina
-Mark Langston
-Jack Morris
-Tom Glavine
-John Smoltz
-Mark Buerhle
-Eckersley
-Roger Clemens
-Greg Maddux (had the most innings over that time)
 
Mixed
-Josh Beckett
-Jake Peavy
-Roy Oswalt
-Tom Gordon (bullpen saved his career)
-Bill Gullickson (stayed about the same through 33)
-Josh Beckett
-Bob Knepper
-Steve Rogers
-Dan Haren
-Pedro Martinez
-Livan Hernandez (maintained solid mediocrity)
-David Cone (not so much "held up" but effective until the near end)
 
Not so hot
-Eric Milton
-Edwin Jackson
-John Smiley
-Steve Avery
-Pat Hentgen
-Sidney Ponson
-Tim Lincecum
-Pedro Astacio
-Kevin Gross
-Sid Fernandez
-Jim Abbott
-Sid Fernandez
-Darryl Kile (RIP)
-Brett Myers
-Scott McGregor
-Storm Davis
-Mario Soto
-Jeff Suppan
-Kevin Appier
-Jaime Navarro
-Johan Santana
-Freddy Garcia
-Jeff Weaver
-Ramon Martinez
-Doug Drabek
-Greg Swindell (went to pen)
-Jack McDowell (fell off cliff)
-Ismael valdes
-Scott Erikson
-Jose Rijo
-Barry Zito
-Carlos Zambrano
-Dan Petry
-Mike Hampton
-Mike Moore
-Andy Benes
-Javier Vazquez
-Mike Witt
-Bret Saberhagen
-Dwight Gooden
-Fernando
-Brad Radke
-Mark Gubicza
-Alex Fernandez
 
TBD
-Lester
-Hamels
-Ervin Santana
-Justin Verlander (not looking good)
-Zack Greinke
-Felix Hernandez
-CC

 

[RedOctober3829]

According to a major league source, the Red Sox‘ ownership group will have met with Jon Lester and his representatives prior to the Cubs’ get-together with the pitcher, which is slated for Tuesday.
According to another source, Lester has drawn “significant interest” from six clubs, which includes the Red Sox, Cubs and Blue Jays
 

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/11/17/jon-lester-will-have-met-with-red-sox-owners-before-cubs/

 

[Corsi]

https://twitter.com/iamjoonlee/status/534691788364451840

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

https://twitter.com/iamjoonlee/status/534691788364451840

https://twitter.com/iamjoonlee/status/534691788364451840

link to tweet

Why set up the meeting for today then? Something change yesterday?

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Why set up the meeting for today then? Something change yesterday?

 
Even if it's true that Lester is leaning toward returning, it would be silly for him to cancel sessions he's already scheduled, unless he's 100% sure. And it would be doubly silly for the Cubs to cancel just because they think he's leaning a different way. If they want him, they'll want to make their pitch and see what happens.

 

[NDame616]

Why set up the meeting for today then? Something change yesterday?

 
"Hey Ben, the Levinson brother's are on line 1. They said they just met with Theo, and they need to adjust their salary demands...."