The Red Sox ARE good. So now what?
- Thread starter grimshaw
- Start date
Franchy is just about at 100 PAs at Worcester. His numbers have been really good. Has it been enough time? I'd love to see him come back up to play LF for a few weeks to see if he can transition his AAA success to MLB.
He clearly isnt as bad as he was the first month he was up here with us. The Santana experiment is clearly not going well and Marwin is basically just as bad a hitter as Franchy was during his first stint. Maybe if Franchy had an .900 OPS in AAA I would say pump the brakes but the man has a 1.152 OPS. Definitely time to give him another chance.
Given that the offense is mostly doing fine even with some weak spots, I think it's better to keep getting Franchy consistent plate appearances at AAA and call him up only when the situation presents itself (injuries, trades, etc.). At the moment they can afford to be patient with him.
Totally agree. And I would add the success of the new WooSox franchise including their 29-14 record and explosive entertaining offense. Plus the upcoming high draft choice. All good!!
In 30AB v. LHP in AAA, he's OPSing .590, and has struck out 35% of the time.
SSS, but it appears to be a flaw in his game. I expect the Sox have a better breakdown of how he's doing the damage v. RHP. Clearly, there's an improvement of some kind that's occurred, but it might be something they have concerns about transitioning to ML pitching.
I have no strong opinion on his being called up or not; we need the help. But Danny Santana's AAA OPS (30 AB) was 1.304 or something.
Tampa and Chicago starting to look mortal (and Houston had some rough patches earlier) is making me doubt my earlier certainty that Boston was clearly a rung below those teams.
Maybe more of a half rung.
Well, I am amused by our pre-season prediction thread. https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/red-sox-2021-season-predictions.33006/
We should revisit it at the ASB. One of the tiebreaker questions was "Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break?"
But will we need a tiebreaker? Only one brave soul selected 95 wins or more.
The most popular bracket of 85-89 wins is still attainable if the team goes 45-44 (or down to 41-48) in the remaining 89 games. (Do we think they're a .500 or worse team heading forward?)
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I think all of baseball, except perhaps the Dodgers, are a rung below Houston. That team is STACKED. Incredible team, and great work by the organization keeping some parts from the WS winning team from a few years ago, and finding and promoting replacements for other parts. I know I know the garbage can banging (I have a very cynical sense of that stuff so am not bent out of shape that they did that) ... but still - this is just an incredible organization and the 2021 team is bursting with talent everywhere you look.
They're incredible at cheating - their gross conduct voided the fair contest between themselves and the other teams, tainting the very reason why we have the baseball games in the first place. If the games are rigged, there is literally no point in watching them, no point to the entire sport. Houston's 2017 WS means nothing; it's an embarrassment.
I get that individual players bend the rules now and then and there's maybe a level of competitive equity if anyone who wants to use bullfrog sunspray can do so. But what Houston did wasn't that.
If you go by run differential (which is pretty decent overall), the Red Sox are at +38, the Blue Jays are +44, the Rays +69, the White Sox at +85, and the Astros are pretty far ahead at +122. The big difference between the teams mostly comes down to pitching. Although Houston is pretty far ahead in offense too. They really are stacked. How the Jays have a run difference like that and are still floating around .500 is confusing to me because it doesn't look like their bullpen is that bad.
So the Sox seem to be overachieving a bit based on those numbers, the Jays are underachieving, and the White Sox, Rays, and Astros seem to be where they should be. At least there are some internal routes to improving the rotation that should really help the Sox in the second half.
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Do the Astros have the pieces to get Scherzer? That would really make them tough in a playoff series.
With average BAbip luck, Franchy's OPS is closer to .900 and despite his gaudy AAA line, he hasn't hit lefties. Granted he's only had 48 PA vs lefties this year (AAA and MLB) he's slashing .214/.298/.238 with only 1 extra base hit. In the minors, he's 7/30 with a double, 4bb/13k in 34 PA.
I'd like to see him get another chance too but there's definitely some luck involved with his current success. He's hitting .472, 25/53, on balls put in play. Knock him down to .321, and he loses 8 hits. Lets see where he settles in when the luck dies down a little bit.
Fangraphs has them at a .530 winning percentage the rest of the way which gets them 91 wins. https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
It is still a very difficult schedule with very few gimmes (which they have oddly wasted so far). They have 58 games left vs .500 and over ball clubs so they are competing with teams like Chicago and Cleveland who have 45 apiece.
This is why I hate the unbalanced schedule.
It is still a very difficult schedule with very few gimmes (which they have oddly wasted so far). They have 58 games left vs .500 and over ball clubs so they are competing with teams like Chicago and Cleveland who have 45 apiece.
This is why I hate the unbalanced schedule.
A good minor league hitter having a high BABIP is more of a feature than a bug. Most of them tend to have obscenely high BABIPs because high EVs are a correlative trait and mL pitching and fielding are worse.
Not saying Cordero’s a true .366 hitter of course, but it doesn’t make sense to normalize it the way it would in the majors. More than half of the the top 30 mL hitters by wOBA have BABIPs over .400. That’s true of none of the top MLB hitters.
What’s probably most encouraging is Cordero’s 14:14 BB/K rate in his last 13 games. He had two walks and 10 Ks (while otherwise mashing) in 9 games before that. Anyone remember the date his minor league sting would trigger another year of team control? I figure he’ll be called up shortly after that.
Definitely but a .472 is absurdly high even in AAA. He also really hasn't struggled much in AAA outside of a 2 game stretch on June 10th and 11th. His current stretch is his worst, albeit an incredibly small sample size... but it still makes up for more than 10% of his PA.
Last 11 PA: 10 At bats, 7k, 1 ibb. That is not good. Only 11 PA, but his total sample size is only 98.
If he does go in a week long funk, it'll be interesting to see how he handles it. I'd like to see him get 200 PA (at least 150) before seeing him in Boston. He hasn't exactly struggled over the last 6 games (.222/.391/.278, 5bb/7k in 23 PA) but his OPS has still catered by .148 during that time.
98 PA is just too small. It's fun to see the big numbers but they change quickly with a 1/5 or 0/5. I want them to call up Duran but I'm guessing he gets up to at least 200 PA before that happens. And 200 PA isn't exactly a big sample either. Far bigger than 100 though.
I also don't see the urgency. The lineup isn't looking that bad anymore.
Franchy went 1/5 with another 3ks today. 16 PA, 1 IBB/10k.
Meanwhile, Duran hit HR #13 and went 2/4 with a BB.
Meanwhile, Duran hit HR #13 and went 2/4 with a BB.
I hear you on wanting a fair contest. No doubt.
Meanwhile, my cynicism is such that I believe many teams likely cheat. The Red Sox were caught using electronic devices (apple phones etc) to steal signals, if you recall. Do we have some reason to believe the Astros, or the Red Sox are some how morally different, more deficient than most other teams? The differences manifest mostly when a team, or player, gets caught. Not to say that all teams are all cheating with equal vigor all of the time. I'm sure some organizations and people are worse than others. Just that cheating is likely endemic to professional sports.
We must remember: these are the most competitive human beings on the planet, and their livelihoods (and pride and status, etc.) rests on winning. In fact, I'd venture to say that most professional athletes are compulsively and perhaps even pathologically competitive - it's just part of the stew, one of the ingredients for becoming elite. It's not just talent, but also overwhelming ambition. And that compulsivity certainly must make you susceptible to cheating.
Video taping, banging cans, using sticky stuff, injecting 'roids, deflating balls (well we were innocent on that one), scrambling headset signals, pumping up stadium sound, colluding with free agents, paying college students, setting players up with prostitutes, having ghost writers for college papers, corking bats, jumping the line at the marathon and taking the subway half the way, and on and on and on it goes .... sometimes an individual effort, and sometimes a group. But it's happening all the f-ing time. Wish it wasn't but would be naive to think otherwise.
Meanwhile, the Astros are really great this year!
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Your laundry list isn't made of equivalent things. I'm not expecting saints, so much as simply holding individual players and orgs accountable to the clear rules.
Also, fuck the Astros.
Absolutely. Cheaters should be held accountable. I agree. My observation that cheating is likely endemic is not an endorsement of cheating. I wish there wasn't cheating. And major league sports should hold players and teams accountable. I'm just not going to get myself in a twist of moral outrage at this player or team or another, because I believe a strong percentage of them cheat, even the ones we consider "our guys" or the "good guys."
Who's in a twist? It takes zero effort to acknowledge a cheater is a cheater. It takes minor effort to parse differences. An inch of pine tar? I could care less. A sophisticated video system, publicly relayed, by a bunch of coaches and players, with zero chance for opponent parity? That's different. And those seasons can't ever be untainted because of it.
So the 1951 Giants season is forever tainted too.
"The Giants win the pennant! The Giants win the pennant! But it will be tainted forever decades from now! THE GIANTS WIN THE TAINTED PENNANT!"
https://sabr.org/journal/article/focus-on-the-giants-cheating-scandal-of-1951/
From that same article, the 1948 Indians are tainted too. Their World Series win that year doesn't count now, so their drought is actually at 101 years now.
"The Giants win the pennant! The Giants win the pennant! But it will be tainted forever decades from now! THE GIANTS WIN THE TAINTED PENNANT!"
https://sabr.org/journal/article/focus-on-the-giants-cheating-scandal-of-1951/
From that same article, the 1948 Indians are tainted too. Their World Series win that year doesn't count now, so their drought is actually at 101 years now.
I totally hear you. And yes, this is all on a continuum and some acts of cheating are far more egregious than others, and being able to parse the differences is important (in this and everything I suppose). I'm not saying it's all the same, but more - this shit is ubiquitous. For every player or team that is caught, I suspect there are more that were never caught, stealing signs and the like, creating a systemic unfair advantage. And it is only our ignorance that allows us to believe the ones that got away with it are more upstanding.This is why I don't hate this team or that necessarily .... (For every one spouse caught having an affair, polling shows, there are several who do the same but no one every finds out) ....
Again, I'm not defending cheaters. Nor am I arguing there aren't matters of degree. I'm just saying, these are pathologically competitive people in very stakes situations (for them in their lives at least not necessarily for the world), so cheating is probably more endemic than we'd like to think ....
Let me add, as an aside, that I think taking steroids - on this cheating continuum - is actually more reprehensible than banging on trash cans. The reason is that there is a health risk in taking them. So the players that did (do) it, are forcing the players who don't to have to choose: my health, or my spot on the team (or contract or bonus, whatever). Human health is much more important than who wins.
If Michael Chavis is the solution to our lead off problem, well then, that's some problem!
The Red Sox have produced a .224/.279/.369 line out of the leadoff spot this season. Chavis is probably a 50/50 shot to improve on that.
He's worth a shot b4 we trade valuable prospects for a leadoff guy if that's the next step. 2019 Chavis would be good enough, and he has been hitting much better of late, albeit in AAA
I think, perhaps, it's time to call up Duran. Certainly when the month turns, and team heads west for a long road trip, he should be flying with them. He just keeps rolling, and he fills a clear need.
Renfroe through Apr 30: .167/.235/.250/.485, 60 ab, 1 hr, 8 rbi
Renfroe since then: .308/.372/.536/.908, 172 ab, 8 hr, 29 rbi
Plus pretty stellar defense. He's been really good overall for Boston so far. It's been huge for him to turn it around after a rough April.
Renfroe since then: .308/.372/.536/.908, 172 ab, 8 hr, 29 rbi
Plus pretty stellar defense. He's been really good overall for Boston so far. It's been huge for him to turn it around after a rough April.
Indeed. Everyone knows he bounced back after a rough start, but seeing those numbers since April 30 and you realize, along with his defense, he's been one of the best players on the team. He is an important cog ....
I have to say that the starting pitching being quite successful against the Yankees this weekend definitely lowered my angst levels. I will admit that I have been pretty down on this team at times, but they’re showing great resilience after tough losses / stretches. I’m quite surprised, but they seem to be the real deal… not sure how far they’d get in the post season yet, but they’re showing signs of being a dangerous team.
Yep. Every time I think they are about to swoon they bounce back. In June they’ve lost back to back games four times. They rebounded from those losses with win streaks of 5, 2, 3, and 3. They’ve been pretty consistent and resilient. o four game losing streaks this point, which is actually pretty similar to the 2007 team if I remember correctly (that team didn’t win more than 5 in a row all year until winning the last 7 games of the season IIRC, and also didnt suffer any long losing streaks).
I don’t remember which championship season it was, could be ’07 for sure since that team was so consistent, but definitely one of the recent ones had no losing streak longer than 3 games. It’s a good marker.
Their longest losing streak in 2013 and 2018 was 3 games. In 2007, it was 4 games. It is the mark of a very good team, for sure.
This team definitely feels similar to the 2013 team. No dominant starter but a lot of solid players who just managed to have very good seasons. It was a total blast. But not a dominant team like 2004 or 2008 or, goodness, 2018.
The biggest difference between this team and 2013 is that the 2013 team could field the ball. I actually believe that this team should be able to as well, but if they don't start showing significant improvement in that area, it's going to eventually limit their potential.
Then you see the Yankee defense...
To my eye, they seriously lack range, so they'd better make the plays they get to. Which they haven't been lately.
In-game interview with Cora today (or was it last night) the last question put to him was if there was one thing he could improve about the team going forward, what would it be? He said fielding. What do you do though? There is scarcely time allotted during the season for fielding practice. If anything, nice, friendly ground balls are hit to the infielders. You aren't going to smash balls at them and risk injury. It is what it is. Maybe Pedroia could do some mind zen things with the infielders. In the Yankee series concluded today, Yankees out-errored Sox 4-1. A start.
I'm anxious to see how the Sox respond to their sweep vs the MFY. This upcoming 4 game series against Kansas City before heading out to Oakland can be a pivotal series. Think about it, lately they hit a certain number of games over .500, slide back a bit, regain a few and slide back, rinse, wash repeat. They've regained the division lead and are now 16 games over .500. Three or four wins vs KC piggybacked with these last three wins could be huge.
Gee. Maybe that fielding could be supplied by crap middle infielders. . .guys who wouldn't start on other teams, but just get in there and intelligently battle. Sort of like Cora did the bulk of his completely forgettable career as a player.
If there's one thing I could improve, it would be for a manager who would pulicly acknowledge that we could benefit from a marginally competent hitter getting the bulk of the lead-off slot at-bats, instead of pandering some pathetic fantasy.
I'm just hoping the coming series in KC isn't the MLB equivalent of an NFL "trap game". Coming out of that series 18 or 20 games over .500 heading into Oakland seems almost necessary as a means to keep a few steps in front of the flaws that they can hopefully address.
They’ve done a remarkable job at losing a lot of battles but winning the war. Bad week in Tampa but won 4 of 6 between TB and NYY.
They're 4th in baseball in runs scored, but number 17 in runs allowed. The leadoff hitter has not hurt nearly as much as the defense.
For real. But it’s also a wonderful opportunity to do some real damage in the division race.