The refs are going to screw us!

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mauf

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I don't think the league fixes games via officiating, however I think the point-of-emphasis stuff is used to dictate certain styles of play.

I also think those who point out that the Patriots are perceived as habitual line-steppers are right. When the Patriots tactics are highlighted by opposing coaches, it exposes the officials. It wouldn't shock me if some of those guys are biased against NE for that reason alone.

Finally, you guys act as if the actual quality of the Superbowl matters. The fact is the ads are sold in advance and the halftime show is already set so people are going to watch regardless. People select their boxes in their office pools so even a lopsided game will have folks half-paying attention at the end while they mingle at their parties. What matters is the pre-game narrative and the cleanest, most marketable narrative is that of the league's old poster boy, Peyton Manning vs its new one, Cam Newton. That doesn't mean it will get that match up but if the league had its preference I believe that's the story they would like to pimp.

None of this matters, but the best narrative involves the Pats returning to the Super Bowl post-Deflategate with Brady seeking his 5th ring. No other possible story line is remotely as compelling.

And Pats' fans certainly aren't the only ones who would relish the awkwardness of Goodell handing the hardware to Kraft, BB and Brady.
 
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dcmissle

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we're in Wonderland on this, but on-his-way-out Manning v Cam would be pretty compelling too

But that matchup has ass kicking written all over it ... Even bit as bad as 2 years ago and reminiscent of the SBs of the 80s ...

So if you think number 50 might be kind of important, historically significant, always to be remembered, you might not want to put your thumb on the scale
 

Marciano490

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He's a very marketable, young black QB. He's also probably got the best TV presence of any QB since Manning.

Plus, some people support his dancing. Others don't.
 

mauf

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Nobody gives a rat's ass about Cam Newton. He's a complete zero as a storyline.
I don't think that's true, but if I'm an NFL marketing guy, I'd rather have Arizona represent the NFC. They don't have a star as recognizable as Cam, but Arians is the league's most colorful coach not named Ryan, plus you know the Norman/OBJ story (including the gay-bashing angle) will get rehashed if Carolina is playing.
 

BigSoxFan

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Arizona is very good but they are boring as hell. Cam is about to
I don't think that's true, but if I'm an NFL marketing guy, I'd rather have Arizona represent the NFC. They don't have a star as recognizable as Cam, but Arians is the league's most colorful coach not named Ryan, plus you know the Norman/OBJ story (including the gay-bashing angle) will get rehashed if Carolina is playing.
I think Cam alone is more marketable than the entire Cardinals team.
 

dcmissle

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May I suggest that the vast majority of football fan don't really care about Roger Goodell's war against the Pats, Brady and the Revenge Tour? They just don't, and to the extent they do, they are tired of it.

Who cares? We in this bubble; fans throughout New England; and mediots, especially assholes in the media.

The Patriots are not the most popular team nationally. By most recent measures the fucking Cowboys are.

More than 25 years ago, I got sick of the San Francisco 49ers. And Joe Montana. Then Steve Young. And certainly Bill Wash. I got tired of how much they won and how smart Bill Walsh was.

That is where the vast majority of the country is with the Pats. That's the same place the vast majority of the country was with both the NYY and RS a few years ago.

Nobody gives a rats ass about Cam Newton. Really?
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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Nobody gives a rat's ass about Cam Newton. He's a complete zero as a storyline.
This might not be entirely accurate.

I don't think that's true, but if I'm an NFL marketing guy, I'd rather have Arizona represent the NFC. They don't have a star as recognizable as Cam, but Arians is the league's most colorful coach not named Ryan, plus you know the Norman/OBJ story (including the gay-bashing angle) will get rehashed if Carolina is playing.
Nobody's going to buy an Arians jersey if the Cards win the SB.
 

bunchabums

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-Are referees systematically biased against the Patriots? If so, penalty statistics don't really show it, as the Patriots were beneficiaries of 15 more flags than they were called for this year.
I get it but you have to remember that not all teams commit penalties at the same rate. In theory, a more disciplined team should have less called on them. So just counting how many penalties that Pats have called on them is a little flawed.

I don't believe in NFL conspiracy theories but I do believe in unconscious biases playing a role. Humans have biases and are often unaware of how they influence their decisions and opinions. I work in investing and we teach our portfolio managers to work to recognize their own biases (everyone has them) and for others to recognize them in their peers.

It's probable that a team who has a "reputation" might not get the benefit of the refs. They may not even know they are doing it.
 

Spelunker

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+1. And it is complicated --

No. 2 is real and enormous, and very difficult to separate in one's mind from the feeling that the honchos are out to screw the Pats.

Then there is a game thread overlay -- in there it seems worse still because plays that are correctly officiated, but close, are attributed to malice.

It is easy to fall victim to this mindset. There were calls that went the Steelers way yesterday that I was absolutely convinced would never go the Pats way next week. Cuz Patriots rules and Rooney rules.

Making it easier still to fall into this mindset is that people seemingly have gotten breaks in the past. Shula absolutely seemed to when he dominated the Competition Committee, and I'm very suspicious when Fisher is on the other sideline for the same reason.

There really is only one way this could be a more perfect storm -- if the officials were full time employees of the NFL. Say what you want about these guys, but they all have careers out of this sport. And if I were one of them, I'd tell the League to go eff itself before skewing a game.
Is #2 real (and enormous)? Do we have actual numbers or studies around that in the NFL?
 

singaporesoxfan

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Suggesting that a team that has enjoyed the on-field success the Patriots have has been the victim of a conspiracy isn't understandable -- it's patently stupid.
The league has repeatedly changed the rules to disadvantage the Pats.

- point of emphasis on contact in the secondary (after Colts vs Pats. Tedi Bruschi says "even when they change the rules to hurt us, we still win")
- this year: point of emphasis on OPI. Leads to several phantom calls on Gronk that end drives
- Eligible/ineligible rule changes (last year after Harbaugh complains)
(Some summary of these here.
It's hardly just this board that is complaining.)

---

I also don't think the NFL is going to call in an outcome this weekend.

But its hardly controversial to say that the league has been out to get the Pats. And I would certainly not call it stupid, with or without intellectual property protections.
 

m0ckduck

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The league has repeatedly changed the rules to disadvantage the Pats.

- point of emphasis on contact in the secondary (after Colts vs Pats. Tedi Bruschi says "even when they change the rules to hurt us, we still win")
- this year: point of emphasis on OPI. Leads to several phantom calls on Gronk that end drives
- Eligible/ineligible rule changes (last year after Harbaugh complains)
(Some summary of these here.
It's hardly just this board that is complaining.)

---

I also don't think the NFL is going to call in an outcome this weekend.

But its hardly controversial to say that the league has been out to get the Pats. And I would certainly not call it stupid, with or without intellectual property protections.
Agree with the bolded, but these are three different things.

- point of emphasis on contact in the secondary
This is beyond debate, and shameful for the league. But, as has been discussed, it was seemingly the handiwork of Bill Polian doing his Polonious-in-the-Danish-court routine. I don't think anyone thinks the league had an anti-Pats agenda as far back as 2003.

this year: point of emphasis on OPI. Leads to several phantom calls on Gronk that end drives
This is the interesting one. I wish that people like Florio were kicking up more of a fuss about this, because it leads you to the conclusion that either (a) point-of-emphasis decisions are actually targeting specific players/teams rather than being broadly applied as a matter of principle, which should raise as many concerns as the Blandino-phoning-in-instructions-to-refs thing or (b) Gronk has been the subject of an unbelievably fluky spike in OPI calls for no reason whatsoever.

- Eligible/ineligible rule changes (last year after Harbaugh complains)
Subtract the Ravens annoying whining from the picture and I don't think was an objectionable rule change in and of itself. Most football fans don't want to watch defenses struggling on a play-by-play basis to figure who is a receiver and who isn't. They want to see football, dammit, not athletes grappling with procedural technicalities. It was stupid and poor-sported of the Ravens and media sources to equate this with cheating, but I don't really take issue with the league closing the loophole on this tactic, so to speak.
 
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BigJimEd

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Players struggling?
Plenty of high school programs run it. Youth teams can even figure it out. But it's too complicated for NFL players?

They changed the rule due to 3 plays. That is ridiculous.
And it had nothing to do with fans. It had to do with whiny coaches and organizations that don't like any change or innovation.
 

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)

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Why are people concerned about who the head ref is or is not? The guy standing behind the offense is not going to be the guy who throws OPIs or ignores DPIs. Those are the guys on the wings and the back judge.

Does anyone think the night before the game Hocculli is going to sit the back judge down to watch tape and say "I see you didn't throw a flag on this play, but on my crew it would be a flag soooo tomorrow throw is mmmkay". That's just not how it works. These crews are mismatched at this point and veteran guys who are going to call the game how they are going to call the game. The head ref may have influence in game if things get chippy and he tells the crew to squash it but the head refs seasonal trends are irrelevant without his crew.

However, if the NFL did want to fuck with the pats they could do it not by who they assign as the head ref but who the other largely nameless refs are. We don't n ow these guys or their penalty stats and tendencies, but the NFL does. They track each of them for the full season. They very well could stock the crew with all of the most OPI happy refs and we would be none the wiser.

But that's also playing with fire and could just as easily blow up Denver drives as well as new England's.

I don't think there is a way to systemically fuck the pats and only the pats through the refs unless it involved a giant conspiracy that the NFL is not smart enough to pull off. Im afraid of ref incompetency but not an uneven playing field.
 

lexrageorge

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Agree with the bolded, but these are three different things.


Subtract the Ravens annoying whining from the picture and I don't think was an objectionable rule change in and of itself. Most football fans don't want to watch defenses struggling on a play-by-play basis to figure who is a receiver and who isn't. They want to see football, dammit, not athletes grappling with procedural technicalities. It was stupid and poor-sported of the Ravens and media sources to equate this with cheating, but I don't really take issue with the league closing the loophole on this tactic, so to speak.
I think you're the only one that actually believes this. Either that, or my sarcasm meter is way off. Players go in motion, offensive lineman pull from their position, receivers run crossing patterns and pick plays, offenses line up in wildcat formation, all to confuse the defense. Then there are fake punts, fake field goals, surprise onside kicks, flea flickers and reverses, etc. The problem was that the Ravens coaching staff was too dumb to realize what was happening, even when explicitly told by the officials. And for that, an unnecessary rule change was made that only servers to further dumb down the game.

I'm not a tin foil hat person when it comes to conspiracies. But had Vikings did that against the Cardinals in a hypothetical random divisional round playoff game, I doubt there would have been any cry for a rule change. Remember, even the local mediots (Shank, Bob Ryan, Borges, Volin) were extremely butt hurt that Belichick had the hubris and arrogance to pull off a trick play during a playoff game.

Back on topic: the anti-Patriots sentiment among the league's owners and GM's and coaches is likely very real; where there's smoke there's usually fire. The fact that the league office actively fosters and encourages it is a serious indictment on Goodell's leadership (or lack thereof). Bottom line is that there will be very little sympathy for New England if they should lose in Denver over a messed up call, but lots of gnashing of teeth should a call go the other way.

But there is absolutely zero evidence that the NFL's officials have had it out for New England this season, or any other season for that matter. And that is a thesis that requires solid evidence to be even worthy of serious discussion. As for the claims of the existence of unconscious bias, that does not sound like a testable hypothesis. The home field bias may be real; or then again, it may not be; the subtle differences found in the studies of the futbol matches could just as easily be due to random noise or measurement error.

I think there are arguments to be made about the difficulty in differentiating pass interference from incidental contact while watching from the field in real time, or in deciding which player initiated the contact. Or how closely defensive holding and illegal contact should be called, or whether an inconsequential brush by a defender 5.03 yards beyond the LOS on a 3rd-and-17 should result in an automatic first down for the offense. Or the officials' knowledge of the rule book, or the ability to correctly call a coin toss. Discussion conspiracy theories only distracts from the real and potentially fixable problems, IMO.
 

jablo1312

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Rumor is we're getting Hochuli as the head ref on Sunday. Again, he'll have an "all-star" crew instead of his normal group of officials, so his regular season record won't serve as a great proxy for what we can expect on Sunday.

HOWEVER, if you want to entertain/torture yourself, here are his crew's stats since he became a head official.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/officials/HochEd0r.htm

His crews have called 48.4% of their total penalties on the home team (and 51.6% on the away team for the math impaired out there). This is very close to the league average of 48.5% of penalties on the home team over his time in the league. This is what home-field advantage is. It doesn't equate to several egregious calls each game (except maybe in the last Denver game...), but generally is more of an invisible hand that slightly tips the scales towards the home team.
 

soxfan121

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There. It's right in a title on the forum.

Now it doesn't have to be buried somewhere in every post made this week. I saved you all some time.
I am saddened, but not surprised, that so few people posting in this thread get you. Or the joke.
 

TheoShmeo

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I am not saddened, or surprised, that you don't get that most people posting in the thread do in fact get the joke.
 

dcmissle

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He is saddened because Artic conditions will not prevail in Denver. Those were the bedrock of the case for not swapping out Tebow. But soxfan does respond to facts, such as weather history.
 

crystalline

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His crews have called 48.4% of their total penalties on the home team (and 51.6% on the away team for the math impaired out there). This is very close to the league average of 48.5% of penalties on the home team over his time in the league. This is what home-field advantage is.
Objection, your honor. Misuse of statistics. Assumption of no endogeneity is violated.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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My only Hochuli concern is that with Mike Carey already in the booth this game is going to be a nightmare of overcomplicated explanations.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Why is everyone shocked that it's going to be Hochuli? The NFL does not want the Patriots to repeat. Expect some OPIs on Gronk
 

wiffleballhero

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I think if the fix were in on a Pats playoff game it would have been in... I dunno... the Super Bowl last year?

But what the hell, I am more tin-foil hat prone than most (where did I leave that thing, it has to be around here somewhere....).

None the less, I am not buying the implications of Howe's way of framing the numbers, or even the general idea that Hochuli is especially prone to home team bias.

In the most paranoid way of looking at things, there are five Pats losses in Hochuli games, since the Mangenius slander:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200811300nwe.htm

An ugly loss to Pitt. at home but Pitt had nearly double the penalty yards.

This game @ The Jets:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201009190nyj.htm

This game from the video above vs. SF:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201212160nwe.htm

and this game vs. GB last year:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201411300gnb.htm

and the game this year in week 17 vs. Miami

So one of these games (wk 17 this year) was a garbage game. Two of the games were really intense games against awfully good teams at the time (SF and GB) and then you have a Pitts. loss and a Jets loss.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/officials/HochEd0r.htm
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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None of this matters, but the best narrative involves the Pats returning to the Super Bowl post-Deflategate with Brady seeking his 5th ring. No other possible story line is remotely as compelling.

And Pats' fans certainly aren't the only ones who would relish the awkwardness of Goodell handing the hardware to Kraft, BB and Brady.
I think this is the homer in you posting.

My sample is light years from being scientific but I polled some folks in my office as well as some customers today (they were non-Patriot NFL fans and on the West coast or the middle of the country). Of the ten people I asked only one was ok with the Patriots making the Superbowl and I would term that person more as indifferent as to who represented the AFC. Most wanted to see Peyton get another chance at a ring and those same people said they wanted anyone but the Patriots to win the whole thing.

Interestingly enough, there were a surprising number of folks who are pulling for the Cardinals because Cam Newton is cocky/annoying/a jerk. Only one of these respondents was a Seahawk fan so clearly the Dab isn't popular outside of Charlotte.
 

DJnVa

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Hochuli flagged Gronk for OPI vs. NYG in Week 10.
The ref flagged Gronk for OPI?

That's crazy!!!


That aside, the fact that NE is 3-4 in games reffed by him is really weird.
 
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singaporesoxfan

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I think this is the homer in you posting.

My sample is light years from being scientific but I polled some folks in my office as well as some customers today (they were non-Patriot NFL fans and on the West coast or the middle of the country). Of the ten people I asked only one was ok with the Patriots making the Superbowl and I would term that person more as indifferent as to who represented the AFC. Most wanted to see Peyton get another chance at a ring and those same people said they wanted anyone but the Patriots to win the whole thing.

Interestingly enough, there were a surprising number of folks who are pulling for the Cardinals because Cam Newton is cocky/annoying/a jerk. Only one of these respondents was a Seahawk fan so clearly the Dab isn't popular outside of Charlotte.
Sports dynasties are good for TV ratings. Americans may claim to love underdogs in sports, and may indeed root for the underdogs to win, but they tune in for the Patriots. The Patriots Super Bowls 2011 and 2015 were the two highest rated Super Bowls of the 21st century with a 47.1 and 47.5 share respectively (the next highest was the 46.4 share of the Seattle-Broncos Super Bowl). Not that Peyton would do badly - the NFL could certainly market that well, and the 2014 Super Bowl with Peyton had a great rating - but the idea that Peyton is far and away the best storyline isn't shown in the data.

Also, I know you said it wasn't a representative sample, but the West Coast and the middle of the country represents only half of the U.S. population; 50% of Americans live on Eastern time.
 

pk1627

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I don't see a natural rivalry between these two teams. When the Broncos were good in the Elway years, the Pats weren't. When the Pats were great in the Brady years, the Broncos really had lousy d's.

This is the first year in about 18 that the Broncos have a decent defense. They rode it to their record, and managed enough offense to pull out 4th Q wins. That's what we saw last week. That's the only way they win this week. That's the main issue, not the refs.
 

PayrodsFirstClutchHit

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Jeff Howe ‏@jeffphowe 16m16 minutes ago
Ed Hochuli will be the referee in Denver. Pats are 3-4 in Hochuli's games since 2010. Hochuli flagged Gronk for OPI vs. NYG in Week 10.
Jeff Howe 4m4 minutes ago
Broncos are 7-0 in Hochuli games since 2000, 6-0 since 2008.

The other potential referee choice of Vinovich... Peyton was 0-6 lifetime and the Broncos were 0-4.

So glad we get Hercules.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Jeff Howe ‏@jeffphowe 16m16 minutes ago
Ed Hochuli will be the referee in Denver. Pats are 3-4 in Hochuli's games since 2010. Hochuli flagged Gronk for OPI vs. NYG in Week 10.
Jeff Howe 4m4 minutes ago
Broncos are 7-0 in Hochuli games since 2000, 6-0 since 2008.

The other potential referee choice of Vinovich... Peyton was 0-6 lifetime and the Broncos were 0-4.

So glad we get Hercules.
These are really just meaningless stats. Pats are 3-4 because those games included the Dolphins game this year where we didn't try, the game @GB last year, another loss to SF in their prime, and the early loss @NYJ in 2010 when they were pretty tough. Pats have been called for all of one more penalty across all their games than their opponents. DEN is 3-0 with Hochuli in the Peyton era with the wins being blowouts against bad Chiefs and Texans teams and the recent win over a Dalton-less CIN. Denver has been called for three more penalties than their opponents across those games.

Hochuli, Vinovich, it really doesn't matter. And even more the case given that their crews are different and the referee himself doesn't throw that many flags.
 

djbayko

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I think this is the homer in you posting.

My sample is light years from being scientific but I polled some folks in my office as well as some customers today (they were non-Patriot NFL fans and on the West coast or the middle of the country). Of the ten people I asked only one was ok with the Patriots making the Superbowl and I would term that person more as indifferent as to who represented the AFC. Most wanted to see Peyton get another chance at a ring and those same people said they wanted anyone but the Patriots to win the whole thing.

Interestingly enough, there were a surprising number of folks who are pulling for the Cardinals because Cam Newton is cocky/annoying/a jerk. Only one of these respondents was a Seahawk fan so clearly the Dab isn't popular outside of Charlotte.
Huh? Of course they're not okay with the Patriots making the Super Bowl. That's why they tune in when it happens. Your polling proves the point.

I'm not saying that translates into a conspiracy, however.
 

Slow Rheal

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Hochuli, Vinovich, it really doesn't matter. And even more the case given that their crews are different and the referee himself doesn't throw that many flags.
This, to me, is the most important part - it's a mixed team of refs, not Ed's crew he works with for every game in the regular season. Plus, having such a (relatively) bad record with one head ref, for a team as successful as the Pats have been, is completely random. I'm not reading anything into this
 

dynomite

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This, to me, is the most important part - it's a mixed team of refs, not Ed's crew he works with for every game in the regular season. Plus, having such a (relatively) bad record with one head ref, for a team as successful as the Pats have been, is completely random. I'm not reading anything into this
Right.

Big Ed was the ref for the '03 Pats-Panthers Super Bowl. That worked out okay.
 

Ed Hillel

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Cletus Blakeman is your SB official. I think Corrente was the alternative, so lesser of two evils I guess.
 

TheoShmeo

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POSTING INFO LIKE THIS IS NOT OK. THIS WAS CLEAR LAST WEEK WHEN OTHERS POSTED ADDRESSES TO PATS PLAYERS.

I sent him an e-mail from my law firm e-mail as follows today:

Pats 3-4 in Hochuli games.

Hmmm.

Keep it fair, please!!
His nearly immediate reply?

"LOL."

Gotta have fun with this stuff.

Edited by Dogman.
 
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amarshal2

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Take it a step further and just delete your post before you give more people the idea.
 

johnmd20

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Maybe Hoch is Theo's "source" and is giving him bad info just to be funny? That would explain the poor quality of predictions.
 
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